VIKINGS // RAMS OVERVIEW

This game is likely to be skewed a bit in the public perception by what happened to the Vikings last week against the Bills — but the reality is that this matchup pairs two of the best teams in the NFL, with a couple of good offenses doing battle with a couple of top defenses.

When these teams faced each other last season, in Minnesota, the Rams scored on their first drive of the game before being shut out the rest of the way and losing 24-7. There are a few changes on each team, but the biggest difference this week will be that the Rams are the home team, which will make it far easier for Jared Goff to check into the play he wants to check into at the line, and for the Rams’ offense to attack this Vikings unit more fluidly.

The line in this game has been set aggressively in favor of the Rams (as of this writing, the Vikings’ Vegas-implied team total sits at 21.5, compared to 28.0 for the Rams), and it won’t be surprising if this game plays closer than that. But there are definitely enough offensive weapons on either side of this matchup for DFS goodness to pile up.

VIKINGS PASS OFFENSE

The Rams have been one of the toughest teams to pass on to begin the year, ranking fifth in yards allowed per pass attempt while forcing offenses to the short areas of the field and tackling well after the catch. This week, however, the Rams will be without Aqib Talib on one side of the field, and they will almost certainly be without Marcus Peters on the other. Although Wade Phillips has the ability to change his defense on the fly, and he is not going to overtask Sam Shields and Nickell Robey-Coleman with the same high-level responsibilities he gives to his two All Pro corners, the loss of these two players will have an impact across the board on this defense. The Rams will either need to be less aggressive on the attack in order to provide extra help on the back end, or they will expose themselves to big plays on the back end as a result of the talent loss they are currently experiencing.

We should expect Wade Phillips to mix and match these approaches — occasionally remaining hyper-aggressive, while at other times showing aggressive looks and backing out into zone coverage schemes that take away the perimeter of the field and force passes to the middle.

This Vikings passing attack really consists of only two players at the moment. Adam Thielen has accounted for 43% of the team’s air yards to date, while Stefon Diggs has accounted for a 37.7% share of his own — with these two combining to see over 80% of the Vikings’ air yards to date.

Thielen has doubled Diggs’ snap rate in the slot, giving him a much safer floor in this spot — especially as the Rams’ perimeter injuries should leave the middle of the field even more open against them, as they adjust outward on defense. Each guy should be heavily involved, however, and each is a strong bet for production in this spot. Thielen has at least 12 targets in every game this season, while Diggs has double-digit looks in two of three games. The matchup has the potential to be more difficult than people will assume at first glance, simply because Phillips will have something in place to account for the missing pieces on the back end; but especially on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, where pricing has been adjusted downward to account for the matchup, these guys stand out as strong tourney plays even on the 15-game slate, as the usage is absolutely locked in from week to week.

Behind these guys, Kyle Rudolph has seen an 11.7% share of the team’s air yards, with target counts of two, eight, and six — with two targets inside the 20 and one target inside the 10. The Rams are susceptible against the tight end; but as always, Rudolph will need a score in order to really pay off for your roster.

VIKINGS RUN OFFENSE

Minnesota has had a slow start to the year on the ground, ranking 29th in yards per carry while totaling only 198 rushing yards through three games. The matchup against the Rams is middling (the Rams do not focus on taking away the run — but their personnel is strong enough that they have been average against the run anyway), but the bigger concern for the Vikings is that they will likely be without Dalvin Cook again. Mike Zimmer and Cook himself have implied that he still has a chance to suit up this week, but their actions indicate otherwise. If Cook does play, he becomes an intriguing piece on the one-game “slate,” but he’ll be at risk of a lightened workload in order for the Vikings to avoid setbacks in this spot.

Last week with the Vikings falling into catch-up mode early, Latavius Murray played only 57.6% of the team’s snaps, seeing two carries — which he turned into one rushing yard. Encouragingly, however, Murray ran 28 pass routes and stayed in to block on only eight plays — leading to seven targets and five catches for 30 yards. Murray will never be anyone’s idea of an explosive weapon out of the backfield, but he can be teed up on the short slate as a game-flow-independent back with low-ceiling pass game involvement. Mike Boone and C.J. Ham each got decent run as well last week, and I don’t imagine we will see Murray crack a 70% to 75% snap share; but that will be enough to give him some touchdown upside in this spot, even if an explosive yardage game will be difficult to come by.

RAMS RUN OFFENSE

Vikings defensive end Everson Griffen is dealing with mental health issues that will take him off the field for Thursday night’s game, but the Vikings still boast an extremely strong defense, with impact players at all levels of the field. With Harrison Smith at safety, the Vikings are able to roll with five defensive backs against the Rams without sacrificing too much against the run; and last year in this matchup, the Vikings were able to trust their front four to slow down Todd Gurley, while allowing linebackers Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks to play back against run looks from the Rams — enabling them to be in position against the pass on all the misdirection and play-action the Rams like to run. This is a poor setup for the Rams’ passing attack, which relies on the threat caused by Todd Gurley to suck in linebackers and safeties and open up deep routes on play-action and short routes on misdirection plays. Last season in this matchup, the Rams had to fight for every yard, as the Vikings were able to maintain coverage and force tight-window throws all game long.

Last year in this matchup, Todd Gurley totaled 37 yards on 15 carries, while catching only three of four targets for 19 yards — for one of his most disappointing fantasy weekends on the year.

While these elements add up to make this a spot in which Gurley is less likely to hit than normal, his secure usage and his explosive ability will always keep him in play. His ceiling remains as high as it is in any matchup; but this is one of the rare matchups that requires us to bump down floor expectations. Gurley is always a fade-at-your-own-risk kind of player, but the Vikings have the personnel and the defensive philosophy that would allow them to hold Gurley below expectations more often than not in this spot.

RAMS PASS OFFENSE

Last year in this matchup, Xavier Rhodes primarily followed Sammy Watkins around the field — and given the way the Rams are using Brandin Cooks, it would make sense for the Vikings to shift Rhodes onto Cooks this week.

“Rhodes on Watkins” freed up Robert Woods last year for 11 targets and an 8-81-0 line, while Cooper Kupp maintained his typical role and hauled in six of seven targets for 64 yards and no scores. Woods is going to have a difficult time shaking free for big plays downfield against this clamp-down Vikings defense, but he should again see heavy usage, and he enters this week third in the NFL in percentage share of team air yards, behind only Julio Jones and Odell Beckham.

Incredibly, Woods, Cooks, and Kupp account for over 93% of the Rams’ air yards, which always makes this a great passing attack to target when we expect one player to have a below-average game (or, at least, to have a below-average matchup). Woods stands out above Kupp from an upside perspective, but Kupp carries a nice floor in this spot, with a locked-in role that yields six to nine targets most game, and that has yielded the fourth-most red zone targets in the NFL (seven).

Finally, realize that a bad matchup does not make it impossible for Cooks to hit; it simply makes it less likely. Cooks should go overlooked in this matchup with expectations that he finds himself in Rhodes’ shadow — making him an intriguing “upside” tourney pivot for the big play potential he carries.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I like to avoid players against elite defenses when I can, as such matchups introduce more question marks than I like to find on my team. As such, I would consider all of these players to be fringe options if this game were on the main slate — guys I would mark down on my early-week list, but would probably not end up playing.

With that said: Adam Thielen and Robert Woods each stand out as strong “opportunity” plays, as each guy should see guaranteed work filtered his way as a result of the way his matchup sets up. Each is a strong play on the one-game slate, with Thielen the preferred option, but with Woods around 30/70 to outscore him.

Kupp carries “floor” with sneaky upside, while Cooks and Diggs have slate-winning upside if things go right. We should still expect Thielen to out-target Diggs, but Diggs is getting downfield looks (an aDOT of 11.8, compared to 8.9 for Thielen), and the injuries to the Rams’ secondary give him a great opportunity to hit. Cooks will need to blow past Xavier Rhodes a couple times in order to post a monster score himself, but he has the ability to do so. In all, the wide receivers in this game fall into this order for me:

Thielen // Woods // Diggs // Kupp // Cooks — but all five of them are playable on the one-game slate.

Latavius is uninspiring, but he’ll have a goal line role and should haul in another two to four receptions. If he punches in a touchdown or two, he’ll pay off.

Gurley still has to be given the highest raw projection on the one-game slate, given his role and his talent; but we shouldn’t be surprised if he falls short of expectations this week.

I don’t expect either defense to be among the five or six highest-scoring “players” on the small slate, but each side has the talent to force mistakes and score a touchdown.

Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff set up nicely for something like a 250-2-1 line through the air, with upside for more. The nature of this matchup means that shootout expectations should be kept in check — but there are enough explosive weapons on either side of this game that some crazy things could happen.

BILLS // PACKERS OVERVIEW

The Packers have allowed 23 points to the Bears, 29 points to the Vikings, and 31 points to the Redskins to begin the season. And yet, the Bills enter this game with a Vegas-implied total of only 17.75 — which speaks to how limited the weapons are on this Bills team. Even in their 27-6 unseating of the Vikings on the road last week, the Bills only threw the ball 22 times, with Josh Allen accounting for 39 yards and two touchdowns with his legs, and with Buffalo totaling only 292 total yards on offense. This is still one of the least-talented offensive attacks in the NFL, and they will have a difficult time keeping up with the Packers this week.

BILLS PASS OFFENSE

The Packers’ pass-focused defense has not actually been strong against the pass so far this season, with only eight teams allowing more yards per pass attempt to begin the year. Green Bay ranks 24th in sacks, and only seven teams are allowing a higher expected yards per target than the Packers. That’s the good news if you want to load up on Buffalo pass catchers.

The bad news is that Buffalo’s top weapons are Kelvin Benjamin (six catches on 15 targets to begin the year, with 58 yards through three games) and castoff Andre Holmes (four catches on nine targets, for 53 yards). Zay Jones actually led all wide receivers in snaps last week…at 62.7% of the team’s total offensive snaps. He has 10 targets on the year, which he has turned into six catches for 106 scoreless yards. Even with negative game script in two of three weeks, Buffalo ranks 23rd in the NFL in passing play percentage. Expectations should be low on this passing attack every week right now — with bonus points awarded any week they look competent. Josh Allen has an absolute cannon for an arm, but that’s about all this passing attack has going for it at the moment.

BILLS RUN OFFENSE

Unsurprisingly — given their pass-focused tendencies on defense this year — the Packers come into this week with below-average run defense numbers, ranking 23rd in yards allowed per carry and 27th in rushing yards allowed per game. Through three games, however, Buffalo’s offense ranks 28th in yards per carry, with an offensive line that has failed to open holes, and with personnel on the outside that is allowing teams to clamp down on the run.

LeSean McCoy is still a question mark at this point in the week, though he has disappointing to-date numbers on the year: 16 carries for 61 scoreless yards, and five catches for 28 scoreless yards. Disconcertingly, he played only 34 of the Bills’ 64 snaps in their blowout Week 1 loss to the Ravens — his last fully healthy game. If he plays this week, expect him to lead the backfield in touches, but this is shaping up as an iffy-workload situation on a bad offense, with low weekly scoring expectations.

If McCoy misses, Chris Ivory (54 snaps last week) and Marcus Murphy (16 snaps) will carry the load. In positive game script last week, Ivory totaled only 56 rushing yards on 20 carries (though he did haul in three of four targets for 70 yards — buoyed by a 55-yard play). If the Bills fall behind this week, this backfield will likely tilt in favor of pass-catching back Murphy. The matchup is not a concern, but the offensive line and the game flow still present reasons to worry.

PACKERS PASS OFFENSE

Unlike the last couple weeks, which set up really nicely for Geronimo Allison, this week sets up best for Randall Cobb (I know — “ugh”). Typically, “Cobb weeks” are the best weeks to avoid this Packers passing attack, as Cobb’s lower aDOT (7.2) and less explosive skill set makes it tougher for him to hit for a big game than what we get on Allison/Adams weeks.

So far this season, no team in the NFL has allowed a lower aDOT than the Bills — who have quietly begun their return to form after a rough Week 1, looking more and more like the defense that carried this team to an unexpected playoff berth last year. Buffalo aims to take away the outside of the field and push everything toward the short middle — which played out last week in the manner we expected, with Adam Thielen posting a monstrous 14-105-0 line on a ridiculous 19 targets, while Stefon Diggs managed only 4-17-0 on 10 looks of his own.

The key to the Bills’ attack in Week 3 was their pass rush, as Buffalo brought pressure with Jerry Hughes and Trent Murphy, while moving Lorenzo Alexander to the defensive tackle position at times on passing downs to command double-teams and free up edge rushers on the outside. With Sean McDermott taking over some of the defensive play-calling duties last week, we saw a more ferocious version of this Bills defense than we had seen in the first two weeks, and their goal this week will be to make life difficult on a hobbled Aaron Rodgers.

For his part, Rodgers will often have to decide between short throws over the middle to Cobb and more aggressive throws into a tight zone on the outside to Allison and Davante Adams. Adams has seen 29 targets through three games, though he will likely need a multi-touchdown game in order to pay off his lofty salary on DraftKings (15.6% of the salary cap — the seventh highest-priced WR on the main slate). He is more reasonably priced on FanDuel and FantasyDraft, at under 14% of the salary cap on each. The matchup is still difficult, though the work should be there, as Rodgers is comfortable making tight-window throws and allowing Adams to win on contested catches.

Allison has had the strongest downfield role in this offense, but this will play poorly in this spot, given what the Bills do on defense. Allison is simply a “bet on talent” play this week.

This passing attack rounds itself out with Jimmy Graham, who has target counts to begin the season of four, eight, and seven. He has quietly soaked up 19.4% of the team’s air yards, with an aDOT of 10.1 (trailing only Allison on the team). With Graham’s downfield targets primarily coming over the middle of the field, he’s a sneaky bet to lead the Packers in receiving yards this week. Only three teams allowed more receptions to the position last year than the Bills, and only seven teams allowed more yards. It is a concern, however, that Adams has retained his massive red zone role this season (seven targets so far), while Graham has only one red zone look on the year.

PACKERS RUN OFFENSE

The distribution of touches last week in the Packers’ backfield looked like this:

10 touches — Ty Montgomery // seven touches — Jamaal Williams // seven touches — Aaron Jones

Montgomery is the best pass-catching back, while Jamaal Williams is the best pass-blocking back and Aaron Jones is the most explosive weapon on the ground. This creates a headache of a situation, as Williams’ blocking ability is important in this backfield right now in order to keep Rodgers protected, but he is still going to cede receiving work to Montgomery and rushing work to Jones. Until Jones proves that he has improved his pass blocking, this should be viewed as a backfield to stay away from, with completely unpredictable usage from week to week. Buffalo has also tightened up against the run early in the year, ranking ninth in yards allowed per carry. You’re on your own if you want to try to “guess right” on a back in this spot.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

At first glance, this looked like it might turn into a fun game to attack this weekend; but after digging in, it appears there is simply not a ton to love. The Bills’ passing attack is still a wreck, with receivers who cannot get open, while the Bills’ backfield is both ineffective and unpredictable.

On the other side of the ball, Rodgers always has the upside to make a difference on a slate, but this matchup sets up poorly for the Packers, with their least-explosive weapon running routes in the area of the field where the Bills are (by far) the most attackable. Look for a decent PPR game from Cobb, but he will need a broken play or a touchdown in order to actually be worth a roster spot. Adams should still get his looks, and he has succeeded plenty of times before in difficult matchups, but it will be tough for him to notch a week-winning score. And Allison is going to need his talent to win out over a defense that does a good job taking away everything he wants to do.

Perhaps the most intriguing piece in this game is Jimmy Graham, who should be involved early and often, and should be able to pick up yards between the 20s. His lack of scoring-position usage is a concern, but he sets up nicely for something like a 4-40-0 line in this spot as a floor, with obvious upside for more. We’ll see how the rest of this slate shakes out, but he’s a name I’ll be adding to my tight end list on the front end of the week.

I also still like the idea of attacking this Bills offense with DST units. Last week, Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll added a lot of misdirection in an effort to protect Allen and get guys open; but with a chance to watch film on that approach and prepare for it, the Packers should be able to shut it down. The Bills’ receivers are simply not capable of getting open with regularity, which will create opportunities for sacks and interceptions this week.

FRIDAY EVENING UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

Randall Cobb is questionable to play this week, and while we may gain some clarity after the Packers’ walk-through on Saturday, there is a chance we will not know until Sunday whether or not he is suiting up. If Cobb is out, keep in mind that Buffalo is most attackable over the middle of the field. This will give a small boost to the already-solid setup Jimmy Graham has over the middle this week. This would also create an opportunity for Ty Montgomery to be an underrated asset. There are obvious risks involved in that play, but it would make sense for the Packers to get him some slot routes and some underneath work in the absence of Cobb.

BENGALS // FALCONS OVERVIEW

This is one of the most exciting games on the weekend, with a pair of teams that have started the season hot on offense. Through three games, each of these teams ranks in the top nine in points per game — with Cincy’s mark of 29.7 actually high enough that it would have ranked first in the NFL last year, and with Atlanta not far behind at 26.7 points per game. Obviously, we are dealing with small sample sizes to begin the year, but each offense already boasted explosive weapons coming into the season, and each has seen a nice uptick in production from young receivers in Tyler Boyd and Calvin Ridley — further enhancing the floor for these offenses as a whole, and creating opportunities for each superstar wide receiver (A.J. Green and Julio Jones) to draw more single-coverage moving forward.

Each team has also drawn our eye the last couple weeks because of injuries in their respective backfields. Right now, it is looking like the DFS community will be without Joe Mixon and Devonta Freeman for at least one more week, which will open up starter-level snaps for Giovani Bernard and Tevin Coleman. These offenses also focus their distribution on a narrow band of players, making it easy for us to know where we can expect the ball to go. I had to wait until Wednesday to write up this game, in order to allow injury news to shake out further, but I had to exercise some serious patience during that wait. I’m looking forward to this game this weekend.

BENGALS PASS OFFENSE

The perception of this Atlanta pass defense seems to be perpetually skewed by what Atlanta does on offense — with people continually assuming this is a unit to attack. In reality, Atlanta has a pair of solid corners in Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford, and this Dan Quinn defense does a great job limiting downfield passing. Even with a tough schedule to begin the year (Nick Foles, sure — but followed by Cam Newton and Drew Brees), Atlanta has allowed the fifth-lowest aDOT to begin the year, and only seven teams are allowing fewer expected yards per target. Only eight teams are allowing fewer yards per pass attempt, and that’s after a matchup with Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara.

This creates a difficult spot on the outside for A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd. We’ll get to Boyd (and his price) in a moment, but Green first:

Green is questionable to play this week with a groin injury (now being called a pelvis injury), but he was probable to return to last week’s game at one point, and it seems likely we see him on the field this week.

So far this season, Green has target counts of eight, nine, and eight — though the second eight-target game occurred last week, when Green was injured early in the second half. He has a solid 30.9% of the team’s air yards so far, with a respectable aDOT of 11.0. As always, his targets are less “securely plentiful” than most of the other high-priced wide receivers; but every so often, Green will unexpectedly spike to 13 or 14 targets — and he has the talent to do damage even on single-digit looks, and even in a difficult matchup. He’s far from a lock this week, but the upside remains.

The number two piece on this passing attack — and make no mistake about it, he is very clearly the number two piece, far ahead of John Ross — is our boy Boyd. My biggest regret last week was the fact that (as discussed in the video recap of my roster) I failed to trust my research on Boyd, and I rolled with an Allen Robinson / Melvin Gordon pairing, over the Boyd / Gurley pairing I could have fit instead. It’s one thing to look at early-season air yards and target data and see that Boyd was severely underpriced last week…knowing that early-season target and air yards data can prove to be fluky over a larger sample size. It’s another thing altogether to be someone with a background in film study, and to have broken down the Bengals’ Week 2 game…and to have seen that he was clearly being trusted and featured. My background in film study is one of the big advantages we have on this site, and I’m glad many of you took the available edge and loaded up on Boyd last week in my absence.

But enough of all that; what does this mean for Week 4?

Boyd was the first read on the first pass play of the game for the Bengals last week — which tells us that they are scripting him the ball in advance of games kicking off. He was also the first read a number of times last week when the Bengals got closer to the end zone, with Boyd and Green stacked on top of one another in the Bengals’ pre-snap formation in order for Green to draw the defense’s attention while Boyd was cleared to run free. This team is operating right now as if they have two elite weapons at wide receiver, and it is not fluky that Boyd is right behind Green with 28.3% of the Bengals’ air yards, and with a similar aDOT of 12.0. Targets should remain close between the two for most of the year. Boyd is playing on the outside in two-wide sets, but he is kicking into the slot when Ross is on the field, which has led to an 82% snap rate in the slot — where Boyd will match up this week with the Falcons’ weak link in Brian Poole (last week, the Saints were also able to move around Michael Thomas to get him lined up on a linebacker or safety for six of his 10 catches — which Boyd will be in position for this week as well). Boyd is underpriced for his role on FantasyDraft, at 10.2% of the salary cap. That’s the place where he is most expensive, as he checks in at only 9.67% of the cap on FanDuel and 9.2% on DraftKings.

The Falcons have been up-and-down against tight ends to begin the year, with the Saints moving Ben Watson around last week enough for him to avoid De’Vondre Campbell on all but one of his five receptions. Tyler Eifert ran a pass route on 72% of Dalton’s drop-backs last week, and he was moved all around the formation, seeing eight targets, and hauling in six for 74 yards. He’s an underrated asset so far, with a tight-end-elite aDOT of 10.1 and a 17% share of the Bengals’ air yards.

John Ross is the number five option through the air (behind Gio Bernard and the three guys mentioned above). He’ll need a big YAC day or a long touchdown to pay off.

BENGALS RUN OFFENSE

If Joe Mixon misses again, Giovani Bernard is the “duh play of the week,” after the Falcons allowed 14 catches to Christian McCaffrey two weeks ago and 15 catches to Alvin Kamara last week. Gio played 87.7% of the Bengals’ snaps last week and ran a pass route on 76% of Dalton’s drop-backs. He saw nine targets and received goal line work. This is the best matchup in the NFL for pass-catching running backs, and Gio is functioning as the rare 85% snap-rate running back in a game in which the Bengals will almost certainly have to remain aggressive throughout. The only potential concern here is that Cincy ranks 27th in offensive plays per game, after ranking 32nd last year. Even with that, however, volume should pile up enough in this spot for Gio to be one of the most workload-secure backs on the slate, in a matchup that sets up perfectly for him.

FALCONS PASS OFFENSE

A lesser regret for me from last week was the fact that I didn’t get onto Calvin Ridley — and I was super impressed with how many OWS subscribers played him themselves. This is a new leak in my game, which has arisen as I have piled up more and more “knowledge and information” over the years. Two or three years ago, Ridley would have been one of my favorite plays heading into the weekend, for the same reason so many OWS readers played him last week: in the NFL Edge, we highlighted that the Week 3 game against the Saints set up well for the Falcons’ offense to stay aggressive throughout…while also highlighting the fact that Julio Jones had a difficult matchup in one-on-one coverage against Marshon Lattimore. A couple years ago, I would have said, “Okay, so how will the Falcons counter this in their attack? Calvin Ridley, of course.” This is what the NFL Edge guided thinking toward last week, and yet I failed to make that obvious leap myself, as I “knew too much” to play Ridley — with his snap share too low to create bankable usage, and with Julio soaking up an extraordinary amount of the Falcons’ air yards to begin the year. This is something I am noticing I need to work on in my own game: getting back to trusting my educated suppositions about how an offense will attack a defense, even when the to-date data does not back up what makes the most sense in that spot. This is similar to the “Jonas Gray game” between the Patriots and Colts a few years ago. There is only so much that predictive data can tell us — and our great edge on this site is our ability to look beyond the predictive data and to understand how an offense is likeliest to attack a defense. I kept wanting to like Ridley last week, but kept getting pulled away by “all the data” that argued against that play. So, again: awesome, awesome job on those of you who pulled the trigger on that play. That’s a former-strength-turned-leak in my own game that I’m now working to correct.

Under new defensive coordinator Teryl Austin, the Bengals’ pass defense has been fairly mediocre in all categories except one: yards after catch. In this category, they have been elite — with only two teams allowing fewer yards after catch per reception than the Bengals to begin the year.

Cincy does not have any glaring coverage strengths or weaknesses, which should allow the Falcons to swing back over to Julio Jones this week, after he dropped to only six targets last week. Unlike Boyd on the other side of this game, Ridley has continued to operate as the clear number three receiver — playing fewer snaps and running fewer pass routes than Mohamed Sanu. Sanu’s role is obviously less enticing on this team with his upside-killing aDOT of 6.4, but the Falcons like his skill set on underneath routes and his blocking ability, so he won’t be going away any time soon. Expect Ridley to finish third in snaps again among wide receivers — though his usage should remain fairly strong moving forward, with around five to eight targets most games. His aDOT of 14.0 gives him plenty of upside with “limited” looks, and he’ll hit a few times this year in games (like this one) that don’t necessarily tilt in his favor. He’s a solid play in this spot, with a respectable target share and obvious upside.

Austin Hooper rounds out this passing attack with four to five targets in each game to begin the year. The Bengals are attackable with tight ends, though Hooper is always going to need a broken play or an unpredictable touchdown in order to really pay off, given his role in this offense.

FALCONS RUN OFFENSE

Last week, the Panthers changed up the script on the Bengals and hammered them on the ground, with Christian McCaffrey unexpectedly taking 28 carries for 184 yards. The Falcons will almost certainly try to exploit this area of the Bengals’ defense as well — and while Cincy will try to make adjustments here, they are without Vontaze Burfict for one more week, and may have a difficult time against the run once again.

That’s the good news for Tevin Coleman. The bad news is that Steve Sarkisian is far less willing than Norv Turner to go off script so heavily; and as such, we really cannot bank on Coleman seeing more than the 17 to 20 touches he has seen so far in his two games as the starter. As noted several times in the past in this article, Sarkisian does not use running backs in the pass game as much as he should, and Coleman has disappointed the last two weeks with only seven total targets. Expect something like 16 to 19 carries and two to four catches in an above-average spot this week — keeping his floor moderate, but giving him plenty of upside to hit for a solid game once again.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

With so many weapons on each offense and a pair of offensive coordinators who know how to pile up yards, I like this game to become one of the higher-scoring affairs on the slate (the Over/Under has already been climbing early in the week, up a massive 3.5 points from where it started) — and with a narrow distribution of usage on each team, this makes this an appealing game to target in DFS.

Gio Bernard is an early-week lock for me as a guy who is underpriced for his role and expectations. This is the sixth game I have written up on the main slate so far, so this could obviously change if more things pop off the page deeper down the slate (obviously, these thoughts get updated on the Friday night Square Table and on the Player Grid that is posted on Saturday evenings), but so far he looks like a premium play once again. Boyd is also underpriced for his role and for his upside. He’ll be strongly in consideration for me this week — and he and Gio obviously have the ability to both post a strong game on the same week, especially given the likely high-scoring nature of this game. Elsewhere on the Bengals: A.J. Green is intriguing for his tourney upside, while Tyler Eifert carries quiet upside given his to-date usage in this offense. Andy Dalton is also, yet again, a good play — and he is shockingly underpriced on DraftKings, at only 10.8% of the salary cap. Expect him to be popular this week.

Matt Ryan should also be popular after back-to-back monster games, and his price is also shockingly low on DraftKings (12.2% of the salary cap) and FantasyDraft (11.4%). This is a slightly below-average matchup, but not to any extent that we should be concerned about Ryan’s floor or ceiling. He won’t keep hitting for monster games every week, but this is another good game environment for him to be comfortably targeted.

It’s always scary to try to project what Sarkisian will do with this offense, but this shapes up as a week in which Julio Jones should be featured, and he should see anywhere from eight to 14 targets (I would love to condense that range, but we really can’t, given the way Sark runs this offense). Behind Julio, we should see Ridley soak up five to eight valuable targets — giving him a lower floor than last week’s explosion indicates, but still providing him with plenty of upside. Red zone effectiveness is always a question on this offense (and they have solved this issue the last couple weeks by doing the unexpected in the red zone), so it’s scary to bet on Falcons even when we expect the yardage to be there; but the yardage should be there this week, and Julio and Ridley should be an integral part of that.

This attack rounds out with Coleman for me, who should see around 20 touches once again in a quality matchup. This gives him a decent floor and a solid ceiling — with an outside chance of his usage spiking this week as well, and with his opportunity for upside spiking as a result.

LIONS // COWBOYS OVERVIEW

The goal of this Dallas offense is to shorten the game — playing at a slow pace and running the ball at a high rate, while hoping that enough things break their way for a win to fall in their lap. The approach on the Lions’ side is the opposite, as they run plenty of no-huddle and pass the ball as often as any team in the league.

These contrasting styles have put Vegas in a bit of a bind — especially with these teams being close enough in talent for the home team (the Cowboys) to be installed as the favorite. It’s difficult to project the Cowboys for more than 21 to 24 points, which is pulling the total of this entire game down. Realistically, the Lions will have a difficult time popping off for four or more touchdowns in the slowed-down environment in Dallas, which makes this an interesting spot for us from a DFS perspective — where the matchup is not “scary,” but expectations need to be lowered a bit nonetheless.

LIONS PASS OFFENSE

It’s no secret what the Cowboys want to do on defense, as only seven teams have faced a lower aDOT than the Cowboys, and — given the slowed-down nature of the Cowboys’ games — only two teams in the league have seen fewer total air yards. Only two teams have allowed fewer total yards than the Cowboys this season. They make it tough for us to rack up big fantasy points against them.

It is going to go overlooked, but last week’s Lions/Patriots game told us a lot about the way the Lions view their wide receivers.

Through the first two games of the season, Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay were used primarily downfield, while Golden Tate was used primarily underneath. Last week, however — against a man-heavy Patriots coverage scheme — Golladay saw his route tree go from this:

Week 2

To this:

Week 3

Meanwhile, Marvin Jones continued to be deployed primarily downfield — which essentially tells us that in a matchup like this one (against a zone-heavy Cowboys team that filters everything to the short middle of the field), Golladay is the receiver likelier to see his usage and route tree adjusted for the matchup. Expect Jones to continue working primarily downfield this week, against a defense that ranked top eight last year in fewest pass plays of 20+ yards and fewest pass plays of 40+ yards.

Golden Tate should continue to work the middle of the field, where the Cowboys are most attackable. He is averaging 12 targets per game to begin the year, and while his aDOT of 6.2 would be pathetic elsewhere, Tate offers enough YAC ability to put up points on such theoretically low-upside usage.

LIONS RUN OFFENSE

LeGarrette Blount played 26 snaps last week, to 32 for Kerryon Johnson; and while Johnson continues to look like the better player, the two split work down the middle — with no end in sight to this timeshare. Theo Riddick soaked up 21 snaps of his own, though his role is not predictably useful for DFS unless the Lions can be expected to fall behind big, which is not the likeliest scenario here.

The Cowboys rank fourth in the NFL to begin the year in yards allowed per carry. If you feel compelled, for some reason, to go to the Lions’ backfield, Johnson is obviously the best bet for upside, and there will hopefully be a week soon in which he finally takes on a bigger share of the workload.

COWBOYS PASS OFFENSE

There is no easy fix for this Cowboys passing “attack” at the moment, as they simply do not have NFL-caliber weapons. This last week, they gave 27 snaps and 21 pass routes to Deonte Thompson — a 29-year-old UDFA who has made his career as a special teams player and “in a pinch” number five wide receiver. He has 86 catches in his career, with nine of them coming this year.

Cole Beasley “led” the Cowboys last week, playing 42 of a possible 59 snaps (71.2%), while running 36 pass routes and going 3-46-0 on five targets. Allen Hurns ran a close second, with 39 snaps and 30 pass routes run, turning in a 2-22-0 line on four targets. Geoff Swaim has taken over the lead tight end role in this attack, with 35 pass routes run a week ago, which he turned into seven targets and five catches for 47 yards. Swaim will need a touchdown in order to really pay off. The Cowboys have been gifted three above-average passing matchups to begin the year, and Dak Prescott has yet to top 170 yards through the air in a game. He has two touchdowns to two interceptions on the year.

Why are we still talking about the Cowboys’ passing attack?

COWBOYS RUN OFFENSE

So far, Ezekiel Elliott has managed to survive a declining offensive line and an ineffective passing attack to compile three respectable fantasy days — though he did need a touchdown in two of those to save his day from disappointment. Detroit is not a daunting matchup (even after bottling up Sony Michel in Week 3, the Lions rank 32nd in yards allowed per carry), but they should be able to load the box and dedicate extra attention to Zeke in this spot, making this a more difficult matchup than it appears on paper.

The news begins to turn better for Zeke when we look at his pass game involvement, with an average of six targets per game to begin the year, and with at least three catches in every game so far. Because opposing defenses have no respect for the Cowboys’ passing attack, they have been able to effectively bottle up Zeke after the ball is in his hands (37 total receiving yards through three full games), but he obviously has the explosive “on his own” talent to break off a big play. There are a lot of negative data points for Zeke, but it only takes one or two big plays to make his day, and he is capable of notching those plays against this defense.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

This game is obviously not going to be a major draw for the DFS community this week, and I’ll be surprised if any players from this game end up on my main roster; but there are a few things to at least take note of, on both sides of the ball.

Kenny Golladay carries intriguing upside as a guy who is good enough to pop off in any matchup. His floor is lowered in this spot, but his flexible usage in this offense makes him at least worthy of a mention.

Golden Tate should have an easy time reaching his floor this week, as targets will be filtered his direction, and the Cowboys are all about “forcing short targets and tackling after the catch.” They do tackle well, which will make it tougher for Tate to pop off; but it only takes one play, and ownership should be low. He’s interesting in large-field tourneys as a guy who won’t kill your roster, and who has long-shot (but very real) upside for a week-winning game.

I’m not interested in taking a shot on the Lions’ backfield or the Cowboys’ passing attack. Those are easy stay-aways for me. Crazy things happen every week in the NFL, but hunting for those “crazy things” in such bad spots leads to losses over time.

I do like Zeke as someone similar to Saquon Barkley last week: “Plenty to dislike, but enough talent and usage to pop off for a big game while everyone is looking the other way.” Again: he’s likely not a Core Roster piece for me this week, but he is at least intriguing, and I’ll add him to my list for consideration. I’ll probably end up with some Zeke exposure if I throw a few extra teams into large-field tourneys.

FRIDAY EVENING UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

Golden Tate is questionable heading into the Lions’ game in Dallas. If Tate is out, T.J. Jones will step into most of the slot snaps for the Lions, and would become a very intriguing salary-saver on full-PPR sites. He won’t grab all of Tate’s targets, but he would almost certainly see more than enough work to matter — with a high floor for his salary, and with a reasonable 15- to 18-point ceiling.

TEXANS // COLTS OVERVIEW

If this game had been part of the Week 1 slate, it would have been viewed as a potential shootout, and DFS expectations would have been much higher than they will likely be at this point. Naturally, a new season brings plenty of “new things to learn,” and the “new things” that are most heavily impacting this game are both on the Colts’ side of the ball:

1) The Colts simply cannot attack deep. There were times last week against the Eagles when the Colts were facing an eight-man box on early downs, and Andrew Luck did not even bother to check out of the called run play. There were other times when he threw passes behind the line of scrimmage to players who had no chance of picking up yardage after the catch. It’s going to be difficult for the Colts to get into any true “shootouts” for as long as their attack remains so conservative.

2) The Colts’ defense has been a pleasant surprise to begin the season, ranking 16th in yards allowed and 14th in points, after finishing bottom three in each category last year. The Colts have started the year against Cincy, Washington, and Philly — three average to above-average offenses. Even the early-week Over/Under of 47.0 might prove to be a bit aggressive; and while this line could move either way, I’m guessing we see it slide down to 46.5 or even 46.0 before kickoff on Sunday.

TEXANS PASS OFFENSE

Only three teams in the NFL have faced a lower aDOT this year than the Colts, though we are dealing with a unique situation this week in the elements this matchup presents.

The Colts have been playing with a lot of six-man boxes early in the season, rushing four and dropping back into an effective zone defense — typically with five defensive backs and every-down linebackers Darius Leonard and Anthony Walker dropping back in coverage. Each of these linebackers has had a scorching-hot start to the season, which is enabling the Colts to be flexible against the run and the pass on all three downs.

What the Colts are essentially doing is taking away the deep outside of the field and making things tough over the middle — forcing teams to settle for short curl routes and hybrid slants that call for the receiver to settle into a soft spot in the zone. This was an approach that the Bengals were happy to take against the Colts in Week 1, and was also an approach the Eagles stepped into in Week 3 (while the Redskins, in Week 2, were set to run this sort of short-area attack anyway). This week should provide something different, however, as Deshaun Watson is one of the most attack-minded quarterbacks in the NFL. In fact, no quarterback at this point has a deeper average intended air yards than Watson’s 12.1 mark.

The easy reaction here is to point out what the Colts have done against the pass, and to call this a difficult matchup; but because the Colts have not yet been tested deep, we have not yet seen what Nate Hairston and Pierre Desir can do when tested. Each guy has the height to hang with the 6′ Fuller and the 6’1″ Hopkins, but there is a sizable talent gap here. I’m a big believer in scheme; but when it comes to a quarterback like Watson — who is going to attack downfield even if his guys are “covered” — I’m very willing to bet on talent. To date, Hopkins has at least 10 targets in every game, with an aDOT of 14.3. Fuller has target counts of 11 and nine through two games, with an aDOT of 16.0. Each guy is running a nuanced route tree, and while catch rate could be low in this spot on the covered deep shots these guys will see, the upside is still there.

TEXANS RUN OFFENSE

The Colts have been solid against the run, without putting too much emphasis on stopping the run — with further credit going to Leonard and Walker, who have been able to clog up holes and shed blockers through the first three games — allowing Indy to rank 15th in yards allowed per carry in spite of rarely leaving more than six men in the box.

Lamar Miller has been unsexy through the first three games of the season, totaling only 176 yards on the ground, on 44 carries. He has, however, maintained a stranglehold on lead-back duties, playing 76.5% of the Texans’ snaps last week, and running 37 pass routes (five catches on six targets) in a game script that led to his rushing work drying up. Expect Miller to return to the 15 to 20 carry range in this one, with an opportunity for four or five targets if Watson decides to check things down a few times with his main weapons in tight coverage deep. As always, Miller will need a touchdown in order to really have significant value, but he’s priced affordably, at under 11% of the salary cap on all three sites, and he’ll be an interesting piece to consider if value proves to be difficult to come by this week. With all the deep passes the Colts are taking away, they have given up the second-most running back receptions on the season so far — behind only the Falcons.

COLTS PASS OFFENSE

While Andrew Luck did throw 10 passes last week that traveled more than 10 yards downfield, he only completed two of them. Luck’s passes are not as sharp as they need to be when he attacks downfield — and while there is some slim case to be made that this is simply the result of rust, the likelier truth is that we will continue seeing a dink-and-dunk attack from Indy all season long. Through three games, Marcus Mariota is the only quarterback with a lower average intended air yards than Luck.

This is dimming expectations on the entire Colts’ passing attack, as T.Y. Hilton‘s speed is being wasted with an aDOT of 8.2, and defenses are playing everything close to the line of scrimmage and forcing Luck to go deeper than he wants to.

In better news for Hilton: he is soaking up over 35% of the Colts’ air yards (such as they are), and he has explosive upside with the ball in his hands — especially on the turf at Indy. Houston has allowed a below-average aDOT so far this season, while allowing an above-average catch rate and above-average YAC-per-reception marks. “Hilton with the ball in his hands” is a recipe for upside, though he’ll almost certainly need to hit for a big YAC day in order to truly reach his ceiling. His floor is boosted by target counts through three games of 11 // 11 // 10.

Eric Ebron played 52 of a possible 59 snaps on Sunday with Jack Doyle out, and he will step into that same role again if Doyle misses once more. He “Ebron’d” his way to only five catches for 33 yards on a whopping 11 targets — failing to connect on multiple end zone targets, and failing to haul in a couple of passes that most tight ends would have had. Ebron has long teased with his athleticism, but we know by now he is not a good tight end. The targets should be there once more if Doyle is out. Sometimes, opportunity trumps all.

If Doyle plays, he will step back into the lead role in this committee. Doyle was on the field for nearly every snap (and ran a pass route on nearly every Luck drop-back) in Weeks 1 and 2. In spite of Ebron grabbing glossy stat lines those weeks, Doyle is the man to play if he’s out there.

Behind these guys, Ryan Grant continues to soak up low-upside snaps as a trustworthy safety valve underneath. Chester Rogers has yet to top 18 yards in a game.

COLTS RUN OFFENSE

True to Frank Reich form, the Colts’ backfield has remained a committee through the first three weeks of the season, with Nyheim Hines taking the heavy snap lead last week against the run-tough Eagles, as expected, but with Jordan Wilkins still soaking up eight touches of his own to 10 for Hines. If Marlon Mack returns this week, this will shift to a three-man rotation, with each guy having a role in the game plan. If Mack misses, Hines is the likelier to lead the workload split against a Houston defense that has been tough on the run to begin the year; but either way, you’re looking at a guessing game on a split backfield behind a poor offensive line.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

There is nothing in this game that stands out as a truly strong play, though there are some pieces that will at least be worth considering.

On the Texans’ side, Lamar Miller works nicely as a role-secure salary saver with moderate upside, while Fuller and Hopkins should continue to be peppered heavily with targets, even if these targets are coming in tight coverage. They both seem more like tourney plays to me at the moment; but while the uncertainty lowers the bankable floor, the ceiling is enticing. Alongside these two, Deshaun Watson is always, always in play in tourneys. His legs and his aggressiveness give him so much weekly upside, even if a dud may drop in there from time to time.

I’ll leave the Colts’ backfield alone, but Eric Ebron and T.Y. Hilton remain in the conversation (with Doyle stepping into Ebron’s place if he’s healthy this week). Hilton is pricey for the way he is being used (especially on DraftKings, where he costs 14% of the salary cap — compared to sub-13% on FanDuel and FantasyDraft), but the targets give him a nice floor, and he still has upside with the ball in his hands.

This probably won’t be the fireworks display we might have hoped for when eyeing this game before the start of the season; but there are still a few interesting pieces on either side of the ball.

FRIDAY EVENING UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

Jack Doyle is out. Ebron will soak up all the number one work at tight end once again. He’s still Eric Ebron, but seven to nine targets is a comfortable projection in this short-area passing attack, keeping him firmly in play in cash games and tourneys.

DOLPHINS // PATRIOTS OVERVIEW

This game pairs a couple of division opponents who tend to have some interesting games each season. Last year in New England (hey, I was at this game!), the Patriots won 35-17, but the Dolphins won in Miami a couple weeks later by a score of 27-20. In 2016, the Patriots won both games — with point totals of 31 and 35; but in 2015, Miami stole another game, with a 20-10 win at home.

The Patriots traditionally play Miami much better in New England — as they especially tend to be affected by the late-season heat in Miami, which removes some of the concerns this matchup can present for them. But after the Patriots’ sloppy start to the year on offense and the Dolphins’ strong start to the year on defense, we still enter this game with a few question marks from an “upside” perspective. Miami has, unsurprisingly, played at the slowest pace to begin the year — though their offense has been ineffective enough that they still rank 25th in opponent plays per game. This gap should shrink throughout the year, but general “play” expectations remain neutral for the Pats this week.

We’ll get to that (more exciting) side of the ball in a moment, but first: the Dolphins.

DOLPHINS PASS OFFENSE

As noted last week, the Dolphins are actually running a really fun offense if you are watching their games as a fan of this team or as a fan of good NFL strategy, design, and decision-making. I’ve been an Adam Gase truther ever since his time with the Broncos, and while this was obviously not the best spot for him to land as a head coach — with a dysfunctional front office — he has quietly done an awesome job with this team over the last few years. The Dolphins are 3-0 to begin this season, using the same approach they used in 2016 to go 10-6 and reach the playoffs: shortening the game, playing good defense, and getting creative in their offensive scheming. The Dolphins have a bottom-half offensive roster, but Gase is figuring out how to maximize the talents of each player on this side of the ball — creating enough upside each week for Miami to sneak away with wins.

That’s all background, of course, and does not necessarily mean this will be a good game for DFS production. Through three games, no team in the NFL has thrown the ball less frequently than Miami, with an average of only 25 pass attempts per game. Five wide receivers are seeing action on this offense, with Week 3 snaps breaking down as follows (out of 44 offensive snaps in all for Miami):

40 — Kenny Stills // 33 — DeVante Parker // 31 — Danny Amendola // 10 — Albert Wilson // 9 — Jakeem Grant

When Wilson and Grant are on the field, it is often for a purpose, with each guy earning two touches last week on those limited snaps. This eats into the production we are seeing from the other guys on this passing-light offense, and none of the “top three” guys have topped six targets this season. Expect the Dolphins to have to pass a little more this week if the Patriots’ offense comes to play; but it will still be difficult to bank on more than five to seven targets for any of these guys in a Ryan Tannehill offense. If hunting for upside here, Stills clearly carries the most per-touch upside of the bunch, and has the best shot to post a strong score in this game. His role doesn’t yield a clear path to a 100-yard, two-touchdown game — but his talent still clears a path for that sort of production from time to time, alongside an obviously-low floor. If taking price into consideration, it is worth noting that Parker ran 24 pass routes last week to 29 for Stills, and he costs only 7% of the salary cap on DraftKings and 6.9% on FantasyDraft. In 2016, when Parker and Tannehill last played together, Parker posted six games of double-digit points on those sites, with two games of 20+ (including one that came against the Patriots). Given his role, he is honestly not underpriced by much; but his upside is much higher than most guys in his price range, and the Dolphins may have to ramp up the passes this week.

DOLPHINS RUN OFFENSE

The Patriots’ run defense has been poor to begin the year, ranking outside the top half of the league in both DVOA and yards allowed per carry — though Miami continues to split work between Kenyan Drake (17, 15, and seven touches) and Frank Gore (nine, 10, and six touches). Drake is theoretically the preferred option in the passing attack, but the Dolphins are using these two as interchangeable pieces, and Drake will not necessarily see his usage spike if the Dolphins fall behind. His floor is low in this spot, given his to-date usage; but it should go without saying that Drake has one of the highest per-touch ceilings on the slate, and this would be a reasonable spot for him to see around 14 to 18 touches and to produce a solid stat line on those looks. He’ll need a touchdown (or two) in order to truly pay off, but the upside is there.

PATRIOTS PASS OFFENSE

Josh Gordon was inactive for the Patriots last week, but it seems unlikely that they glue him to the sidelines again in this one, as their offense is suffering at the moment with no wide receivers who can get open on their own. This is allowing defenses to pay extra attention to Rob Gronkowski, and is limiting the effectiveness of this offense as a whole. While Gordon will likely step into limited snaps in his first game, it would make sense for the Patriots to add a viable second weapon to the field. In the same way the Falcons were able to use Julio Jones last week to free up Calvin Ridley — and in the same way the Eagles were able to use Ertz and Agholor last week to free up Goedert and Perkins — expect the Patriots to use Gordon to free up other areas of the field.

The Pats are going to need that extra spacing on the field this week against a Miami defense that enters the week ranked seventh in DVOA against the pass. Miami is forcing short throws and a below-average catch rate to begin the year, and they rank second in the NFL in fewest touchdowns allowed to wide receivers early on — with only one WR receiving touchdown allowed through the first three games. The Dolphins have benefitted from matchups against Tennessee, the Jets, and Oakland to begin the year, but they have the pieces in the secondary to create issues for the Patriots’ wideouts. Through three games, Chris Hogan has yet to top five targets, and Phillip Dorsett has yet to top seven looks. Dorsett is the guy to target right now if going after Pats wideouts, as he has secured 31.1% of the air yards on this team, to only 17.9% for Hogan.

Because of the extra attention defenses are being able to pay to him, Rob Gronkowski is going underutilized early in the year, with target counts of only eight, four, and seven, and with 26.3% of the team’s air yards (a more-than-respectable mark for a tight end, but low for what Gronk should be getting right now in this broken Patriots’ offense). The Dolphins have been solid against the tight end to begin the year and should actually be able to finish the year middle-of-the-pack against the position, but keep in mind that this team allowed 999 receiving yards to the position last year, and Gronk is in a different class of player than the average tight end. His usage should spike this week regardless; but his opportunities should gain some added value if Gordon is active in this spot.

PATRIOTS RUN OFFENSE

With Rex Burkhead going to I.R. with a neck injury, the Patriots’ once-crowded backfield is down to James White and Sony Michel. I am guessing Michel will end up being fairly chalky this week, given his low price tag and the high total on the Patriots, which makes this an interesting spot to dig into — especially as I wanted to like Michel when I first looked at this slate, but I am having a hard time getting over the hump on some of the issues we run into here.

The first issue is the matchup, as Miami has tightened up against the run to begin the year, ranking sixth in DVOA and third in yards allowed per carry. New England’s offensive line does rank ninth in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards (Miami ranks fourth on defense), so the Patriots as a unit have the ability to overcome a tough matchup; but this is a tough matchup.

The second issue is implied by the fact that the Pats rank ninth in adjusted line yards, and Michel has still struggled through two games, with only 84 yards on 24 carries (3.5 yards per carry). Michel is adjusting slowly to the NFL game right now (not unexpected, of course, given that he missed all of preseason), and his eyes are not yet seeing things nearly as quickly as he needs to see them. Multiple times against the Lions’ poor run defense on Sunday, Michel waited too long for holes to develop — and then, on short-yardage situations, he kept his eyes down and slammed into the line on plays when he could have had a bit more patience and broken free for a long gain. Through two games, Michel is leaving a lot of yards on the field, and that could be an issue against what is shaping up early as a tough defense to run on.

The Patriots also continue to lean on James White on passing downs, as there is a lot that White can do in this offense that Michel currently cannot. New England loves the way they can line up White at wide receiver and motion him into the backfield if a more favorable look presents itself — an approach that has opened up White to a total of 13 carries and 14 catches through the first three games of the year.

Expect White and Michel to split snaps fairly evenly in this spot, with White touching the ball another eight to 12 times, and with Michel taking around 12 to 15 carries and two or three targets of his own. Either guy will need a big play or a touchdown (or two) in order to truly pay off.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

As fun as the Dolphins’ offense is from an “NFL” standpoint, they have been a poor unit to target in DFS to date, with low volume across the board, and with a slowed-down approach that has led to them ranking 23rd in total yards to begin the year. If going here, Stills, Parker, and Drake are the guys who stand out as the best bets for upside — but all of them carry too little floor for me to have much interest. You are essentially rostering these guys “hoping for a big play” or “hoping for an unpredictable touchdown.” It won’t be remotely surprising if one of these guys becomes a solid piece this week, but there is a lot of guesswork in trying to determine who that “someone” will be.

New England, meanwhile, incredibly ranks 25th in total yards to begin the year, in spite of seeing two positive matchups in their first three games. The Patriots also rank 25th in points per game.

Naturally, this will change. Tom Brady is still the quarterback of this offense and Josh McDaniels is still calling plays — and the Pats have added Josh Gordon to complement Rob Gronkowski. Julian Edelman will also return after this week, and Sony Michel will likely adjust to the NFL game before long. The question, in targeting this offense, is: “Will any of those things come together this week?”

If Josh Gordon makes his way onto the field this week, I will have definite interest in Gronk, as he’ll see a little less attention than he has been seeing, and the Pats should focus on him a little more heavily as they aim to get their offense on track. I don’t typically pay up at tight end, but this would be a good spot to do so.

If Gordon doesn’t play, I’ll have vague interest in Dorsett, simply given his price and his role in this offense; but it’s a thin play from a floor perspective.

As for the backfield: I’ll have Michel on my list, as he is so cheap (under 10% of the salary cap on all three sites) in this Dion Lewis role that produced consistent fantasy goodness last season; but I will almost certainly be more cautious on him than I expect the field to be, as he simply does not yet look ready to make a heavy impact in the NFL game. This can change, of course — but the floor here is lower than I imagine most will assume.

I’ll also have interest in White, but I’m unlikely to play a running back I can only bank on for around nine to 12 touches.

And finally, I will keep in mind — while building my rosters — that the Patriots regularly score four touchdowns without producing a single “must-have” stat line, as this team can spread the ball around and attack from multiple angles, making it difficult to lock in production even when we expect them to score a lot of points. Gronk is the guy likeliest to top 20 points this week, and I imagine I will not end up looking too far beyond him myself, even with the high Vegas-implied total the Patriots carry this week.

JETS // JAGUARS OVERVIEW

Each of these teams will be looking to bounce back this week after a disappointing Week 3 — in which the Jets allowed the Browns to get their first win in almost two years, before the Jags followed up their victory over the Patriots with a loss to the Titans. The Jaguars have a much better team and are likely to come out focused and ready to play, making this an especially difficult spot for the Jets and their young rookie quarterback.

JETS PASS OFFENSE

How does this matchup set up for the Jets’ passing attack? Let’s start with this:

Last week, the Jets took on a Cleveland defense that looks to force throws to the short areas of the field. Cleveland is not especially good at this, and they don’t have any dominant players in the secondary; but they invite teams to throw short…and this is what Sam Darnold‘s passing chart looked like:

(For those listening to the audio version of the NFL Edge, or for those of you who don’t like to look at passing charts: everything was short; only two passes traveled more than 15 yards downfield, and Darnold incredibly threw more passes behind the line of scrimmage — nine — than he threw to receivers more than 10 yards downfield.)

This week, Darnold is traveling to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars. Only three teams have faced a lower aDOT than the Jags. And no team has allowed fewer yards after catch per reception (it’s not even close). This is a recipe for any passing attack to fail, but this Jets attack should especially find itself in a difficult position.

If, for some reason, you feel compelled to load up on some Jets players in this spot, Quincy Enunwa continues to dominate targets on this offense, with to-date target counts of 10 // 11 // 8. Robby Anderson, Jermaine Kearse, and Terrelle Pryor have combined for three total games of more than four targets (with each notching one such game).

JETS RUN OFFENSE

The Jaguars rank 17th in yards allowed per carry to begin the year, but since it is early in the season, it is worth pointing out that if we took away just one single run (Saquon Barkley’s beautiful 68-yarder in Week 1), their YPC allowed would drop from 4.2 to 3.4 — which would place them in the top five in the NFL. This is not an attackable run defense, and the Jets continue to split work between Isaiah Crowell (touch counts of 10 // 14 // 18) and Bilal Powell (touch counts of 13 // 10 // 14). Incredibly, these two have combined to average only five targets per game, in spite of all the short passes the Jets are throwing. This offense is simply playing too slow and working too hard to protect Sam Darnold at the moment for either guy to step into a big enough workload to matter on his own.

JAGUARS PASS OFFENSE

Humorously, the Jags have thrown the ball more frequently than 20 other teams to begin the season — one year after finishing dead last in pass play rate. I say “humorously” because you can guarantee this was not the master plan put together in the offseason by Tom Coughlin, Doug Marrone, and Nathaniel Hackett. If Leonard Fournette returns this week, as expected, the Jags will get back to their run-dominant ways.

As pointed out in Week 1 of the NFL Edge, the Jaguars’ dominant defense allowed the Jags to run enough plays last season to finish middle-of-the-pack in pass attempts, in spite of running the ball more frequently than any team in the league. That side of things remains in play this week — though the Jets have been playing at one of the slowest paces in the league themselves, which will limit the overall plays we can expect in this game. The likeliest range for Blake Bortles pass attempts this week is 30 to 33.

This wide receiver corps is working itself out three weeks into the season, with Keelan Cole and Donte Moncrief playing on nearly all downs, and with Dede Westbrook stepping onto the field in three-wide sets. Moncrief continues to disappoint on his opportunities, catching seven of 17 targets so far 64 yards and a touchdown. Westbrook has produced when given the chance, but his target counts on the year are six, five, and four. Cole is the man to chase in this group, with ascending target counts of four, eight, and nine. Behind these receivers, Austin Seferian-Jenkins will do his best to catch-and-fall this week on limited targets. He has exactly three catches on five targets in all three games — with yardage ranging from 18 to 25 yards.

The Jets have started the season hot against the pass, ranking fourth in yards allowed per pass attempt and fourth in expected yards per target — buoyed by a low catch rate and excellent tackling after the catch.

JAGUARS RUN OFFENSE

The Jets have also been solid against the run, ranking 14th in yards allowed per carry; and while the Jaguars expect to get Leonard Fournette back, they cannot be counted on to give him a full workload.

If Fournette does return to a full workload (and especially if we get word from the Jaguars in advance that Fournette will be in line for his normal role), he is a fairly matchup-proof option, as one of the few guys in the NFL who can genuinely be counted on to see 22 to 27 touches every time he takes the field. He’s not exactly “underpriced,” but at a range of 12.83% of the salary cap (FanDuel) to 14.0% of the salary cap (DraftKings), he’s very affordable for the sort of role he has when healthy. The “Fournette/Yeldon” role in this offense has yielded 22 targets already through three games, while Corey Grant has added nine targets of his own — and Fournette figures to eat into some of Grant’s snaps if he is indeed healthy. Somewhere in the range of 20 carries and four to six catches should be the expectation if Fournette is healthy — with all of the goal-line work flowing his way as well.

We’ll be keeping a close eye on news in this spot throughout the week.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

This slate is shaping up to be a pretty ugly one at running back — which makes Fournette an interesting option if we get word that he’ll be stepping back into his normal role. The matchup is neither beneficial nor threatening, but the workload, talent, and price would all line up nicely. If Fournette is healthy but we do not have word that he will see his typical workload, he will enter the tourney discussion as a guy with a lower bankable floor, but still with plenty of upside.

I’ll almost certainly stay away from the Jags’ passing attack, though Cole is somewhat interesting for his big-play upside in tourneys.

I don’t typically take players against the Jaguars, as upside is so thin; but if pricing proves to be especially tight this week on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, it’s worth pointing out that Quincy Enunwa (72% slot rate) draws the best matchup against Tyler Patmon in the slot. (It’s still not a good matchup.) Enunwa has been priced down on those sites to account for this spot against the Jags.

There is also a potential Cheat Code in play this week with Crowell and Powell together on DraftKings, if pricing is tight — but in this matchup, it’s tough to see them combining for 30 points. Optimally, the Cheat Code should be two cheap running backs on the same team who can lock in over 20 points guaranteed, with upside for as much as 40 if everything goes right. I’m not seeing that scenario against the Jags.

FRIDAY EVENING UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

Leonard Fournette will play this week. As laid out above: there is no guarantee the Jags feed him his customary 24 to 27 touches, but there is upside for a big game if the work is there.

EAGLES // TITANS OVERVIEW

I am guessing the public is not yet appreciating just how impressive it is that this Titans team is 2-1 with what they are getting out of their offense. Mike Vrabel has shown an early willingness to “win ugly,” taking down the Texans 20-17 and then taking down the Jaguars 9-6. The offense is supposed to be the engine of this Titans team, but they are figuring out how to win in whatever way they can.

On the other side of this game, we have an Eagles team that is looking to round into form under Carson Wentz. Early in the week, it is looking like the Eagles will have a healthy Jay Ajayi (and possibly even a healthy Darren Sproles) this weekend, while the return of Alshon Jeffery (who has still not been cleared for contact) is a little further away (Note: Alshon was cleared for contact on Wednesday, and now has a shot to play; he will likely be on a snap count if cleared).

EAGLES PASS OFFENSE

Tennessee has played aggressive, opponent-specific defense, with a willingness to attack downhill and play man coverage on the back end. So far, this has led to the Titans ranking 18th in yards allowed per pass attempt, while allowing teams to throw downfield (only nine teams have faced a deeper aDOT than the Titans) and tackling well after the catch. The Titans have picked off three passes while allowing only four passing touchdowns, and their eight sacks rank 10th in the league. This is a middling to slightly below-average matchup for the Eagles passing attack — one that would neither raise nor lower expectations for this offense over a large sample size.

With that being the case, attention turns to the Eagles’ attack — which looks to get more fully on track this week in Wentz’ second game on the field. Wentz looked mentally sharp in Week 3, and he completed 67.6% of his passes, though his average intended air yards of 7.4 was a steep drop-off from his 9.9 mark last season. The absence of Alshon is likely the biggest factor here, and we may not see Wentz attack downfield as much as we would like until he has a fully healthy group of guys to throw to.

Jordan Matthews played on 22 of a possible 49 pass plays for the Eagles last week, hauling in both of his targets for 21 yards. With Matthews’ return, Nelson Agholor disappointed — posting a line of 4-24-0, on only five targets. This seems more coincidental than anything else, however; Agholor ran a route on every one of Wentz’ drop-backs and still spent plenty of time in the slot. In their game against the Colts in Week 3, Philly attacked the Indy zone using Agholor and Zach Ertz to draw defensive attention in order to free up guys like Dallas Goedert (seven targets), Josh Perkins (four targets), and Clement/Smallwood (nine targets). With Ertz seeing 10 looks, Agholor landed way down the pecking order. Keep in mind, however, that Philly is one of the most opponent-specific teams in the league, and it would make sense against the Titans’ man-heavy coverage scheme this week for the Eagles to attack one-on-one matchups with their best players. If that proves to be the case, we will see Agholor’s targets rise this week, while targets will trickle back down for Perkins and Goedert.

Zach Ertz has proven over the last year-plus that he will be involved regardless of the game plan. Not only is Ertz the most targeted tight end in the NFL so far, but only nine wide receivers have more targets than him. Tennessee has been “tough against the tight end” to begin the season, but they have faced the Dolphins, Texans, and Jaguars — all three of whom feature their tight ends lightly. There is no need to fear Tennessee’s linebackers and safeties in coverage against Ertz. Only six teams allowed more receiving yards to the tight end position last season.

EAGLES RUN OFFENSE

Tennessee has gotten smashed on the ground to begin the year, allowing 4.7 yards per carry to running backs (and 4.8 yards per carry overall), in spite of facing the Dolphins, Texans, and Yeldon-led Jaguars. As noted last week: the Titans are using personnel that indicates a willingness to give up yards on the ground against good passing attacks, which creates a nice situation for the Eagles this week.

If Jay Ajayi returns (and is deemed fully healthy), he’ll be a sneaky bet for 16 to 20 touches in this spot — especially as game flow should work in his favor. Obviously, this projection comes with some scary guesswork on an offense that likes to attack each opponent in a unique, specific way.

If Ajayi is out, we’ll see another split workload between Corey Clement and Wendell Smallwood. Clement played 45 snaps last week and touched the ball 19 times, while Smallwood played 29 snaps and had 13 touches. The Eagles, of course, cannot be expected to run 82 plays every week. If they run a more reasonable 60 to 65 plays this week, we would likely see Clement on around 35 snaps and Smallwood on about 25. Each will be involved when on the field, so while the floor is a little scary on limited work, there is enough price-considered ceiling for one of these guys to end up mattering.

If Sproles returns this week, all bets are off in this backfield, as we’ll be guessing how the Eagles want to attack with this four-part backfield.

TITANS PASS OFFENSE

It really doesn’t matter who is under center this week for the Titans, as Blaine Gabbert is incapable of attacking deep, and Marcus Mariota is dealing with a nerve issue that appears to prevent him from making downfield throws as well. Last week, in a similar setup against the Colts, the Eagles played close and tight to the line of scrimmage, forcing Andrew Luck to make tight-window throws even on underneath passes. Through three games, the bottom three quarterbacks in average intended air yards are: 1. Marcus Mariota || 2. Andrew Luck || 3. Blaine Gabbert. Only the Bills, Cowboys, and Cardinals have fewer passing yards than the Titans this year.

With Delanie Walker out, the only show in town for the Titans has been Corey Davis, who ranks fourth in the NFL in percentage share of team air yards — behind only Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, and Robert Woods (and one spot ahead of Adam Thielen). The idea of the Corey Davis breakout is tantalizing, but his aDOT is 7.7 — an almost impossibly low number for a guy who ranks near the top of the league in percentage share of team air yards. There are just no true “upside” pass attempts in this offense at the moment.

While that’s the bad news, the good news is that Davis has seen his price drop to account for the poor state of his offense — registering at 10.6% of the salary cap on DraftKings, 10.1% on FantasyDraft, and all the way down at 9.0% on FanDuel. To be clear: this is more “Allen Robinson in Week 3” than “Robert Woods in Week 3,” from an air yards perspective. Quarterback play has to be taken into account when considering these things — so even at such a cheap price, he’s no lock to smash. But against a Philly team that filters action toward the air, his massive opportunity share is worth paying attention to.

While Corey Davis played 52 of a possible 62 snaps last week, none of Taywan Taylor, Rishard Matthews, or Tajae Sharpe saw more than 32 snaps. From a forward-looking perspective (or an “upside-hunting” perspective this week), I’ll point out that monster big-play threat Taylor saw the most snaps of the three last week, and his target count has risen from one to four to five. Taylor is being schemed short passes and wide receiver screens that get the ball into his hands, giving him some low-floor, high-upside appeal.

TITANS RUN OFFENSE

At the end of the 2017 season, the Eagles ranked sixth in fewest yards allowed per carry, and no team in the NFL had faced fewer rush attempts. This defense has picked up in the exact same spot through three weeks of the 2018 season — ranking sixth in fewest yards allowed per carry, and facing the fewest rush attempts in the league. At 54 rush attempts faced, the Eagles have faced an average of only 18 rush attempts per game — after facing only 21.1 rush attempts per game last year.

The Titans, meanwhile, have continued to split backfield usage, with Derrick Henry taking on the slightly bigger load (32 snaps, to 30 for Dion Lewis last week) against the smaller Jacksonville linebackers. This week, against a ferocious Philly front that teams routinely choose not to attack on the ground, it makes sense for Tennessee to lean on the pass-catching chops of Dion Lewis. Lewis out-snapped Henry 83 to 45 through the first two weeks of the season. Unless the Titans surprise with a big, early lead, we should see around eight to 10 carries and four to six catches for Lewis, with eight to 10 carries and little to no pass game involvement for Henry.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Carson Wentz should post a fine game in this spot — and while I would rather target a quarterback in a potential shootout, I do expect one or two of his weapons to be strong plays this week. Ertz is the safest bet — with locked-in usage and a high floor and ceiling. I also expect Agholor to step back into a heavier target share this week, against a more man-heavy coverage unit. If you wanted, you could also take a leap of faith and assume that the heavy utilization of number two tight end Goedert and number three tight end Perkins was a precursor of things to come, rather than being a game-plan-specific approach last week against the Colts’ zone defense. If that proves to be the case, each guy will provide strong value this week, after Goedert ran 29 pass routes in Week 3 and Perkins ran 16.

I like the matchup quite a bit for the Eagles’ rushing attack, but it’s difficult to take advantage with any certainty. If Ajayi returns, the secretive Eagles will almost certainly give us no indication of how much he’ll play (or of how he’ll be used). Whereas Ajayi sitting will open another split workload between Clement and Smallwood. The best thing is obviously just to avoid this uncertainty; but I am intrigued by the upside here in tourneys.

The Titans’ offense is so broken right now, I won’t be excited to go anywhere on this team — and it appears there is enough solid value available this week that I won’t try to sneak by with a Dion Lewis play in such a tough spot. But I do find Corey Davis to be interesting. He is getting too much usage to be a dud every week, and the likely pass-heavy nature of the Titans’ game plan this week gives him a chance to finally hit. But the floor is low in this offense at the moment, across the board. That obviously goes for Taywan Taylor as well, who is a deep-tourney flier for his big-play upside, but whose likeliest scenario is a disappointing game.

FRIDAY EVENING UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

Rishard Matthews pulled a Vontae Davis and literally quit on his team. I’ve had a soft spot for Matthews ever since 2015, when he made me plenty of money during his time with the Dolphins as a guy no one else wanted to play; but this one is just downright absurd. Upset because he was no longer getting the snaps he wanted, he literally quit, and the Titans released him. Anyhow. This is still a broken passing attack (as noted above), but this does open guaranteed snaps for Taywan Taylor. Potential star offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur will try to get Taylor the ball in space this week, giving him intriguing tourney upside.

BUCCANEERS // BEARS OVERVIEW

This week, “the second best offense in football” (second in total DVOA, third in points per game, first in yards per game) is taking on one of the best defenses in the league in the Bears (fourth in total DVOA, eighth in points allowed per game, fifth in yards allowed per game) — and Vegas has unsurprisingly sided with the home team coached by Vic Fangio and headlined by Khalil Mack, over the road team quarterbacked by Ryan Fitzpatrick. After posting point totals of 48, 27, and 27 to begin the year, the Bucs enter this week with a Vegas-implied total of 21.75, and are a clear candidate to return to Earth in Week 4 against this no-joke Chicago D.

On the other side of this game, we have a disappointing offense in the Bears, with Mitchell Trubisky showing early on that he has problems of his own that stretch beyond his 2017 coaching. While there were hopes that a switch from John Fox to Matt Nagy would free Trubisky (in the same way the switch from Jeff Fisher to Sean McVay freed Jared Goff last year), the quarterback still has to make reads and throws in order to be successful; and thus far, Trubisky has been inaccurate at key moments throughout each game, while failing to make quick reads or put the ball in spots that will lead to yards after the catch.

This lowers overall excitement on this game (as evidenced by the early-week Over/Under of 46.5 — by no means a “low” total, but lower than we have come to expect for games with the Bucs’ offense and defense) — though we should keep in mind that the Bucs love to attack downfield, and their pass defense is awful on the other side, which opens opportunities for things to get crazy from time to time.

BUCCANEERS PASS OFFENSE

Chicago’s big advantage on defense so far has been their pass rush. While the Bears have been fairly average across all areas of the secondary (actually coming in below-average early in the year in expected yards per target), they rank first in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate, and their ability to get after the quarterback is going to make it difficult for the Bucs to attack downfield in the way they want.

With that said: Tampa’s offensive line has held up well to begin the year, ranking 10th in adjusted sack rate and allowing Fitzpatrick to rank fourth in average intended air yards to begin the season, behind only Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen. No team has more pass plays of 20+ yards to begin the season than Tampa, and no team has more pass plays of 40+ yards.

This is the signature approach of this Todd Monken offense — which is relentlessly forcing teams to account for the deep ball with DeSean Jackson (fourth in aDOT) and Mike Evans (11th in aDOT). Chris Godwin is also getting into the mix downfield (31st in the NFL in aDOT), while O.J. Howard‘s aDOT of 10.3 is on the higher end for tight ends. Last week, Godwin had only three targets within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, and Evans had only one.

In spite of the low Vegas-implied total, there is no reason to be scared away completely from this Bucs passing attack just yet — especially in tourneys. The usage for Evans (seven, 12, and 11 targets — with so many of these looks coming downfield) will make it difficult for him to “fail,” and the upside is still there for a big game. Godwin has seen four, six, and 10 targets of his own, and he played on just over half of the Bucs’ plays last week. He should be in line for six to eight targets again in this game. DeSean Jackson will round out the core pieces in this attack, with a snap rate around 60% and with several deep shots each game. As we saw last week, DeSean’s floor is low when he fails to hit; but his upside remains tremendous.

Behind these three, Adam Humphries continues to play more snaps than Godwin or DeSean, but he has yet to top five targets in a game, and his aDOT of 1.7 is almost impossibly low. O.J. Howard (32 pass routes last week) and Cameron Brate (28 pass routes last week) continue to hold down roles as well, and each will produce unpredictable spiked weeks all season long; the issue in targeting these two, of course, is that they tend to post duds when they don’t hit for a big play (Howard) or a touchdown (Brate).

BUCCANEERS RUN OFFENSE

The Bucs’ rushing attack has been in tatters to begin the year, even with all of the downfield attention their passing attack commands. Through three games, Tampa ranks dead last in adjusted line yards and dead last in run offense DVOA. No team has posted fewer yards per carry than the Bucs, and only two teams have fewer rushing yards per game. Tampa has started the year against two pass funnels in their first three games (New Orleans ranks first at the moment in DVOA against the run, and Philly ranks second), but Chicago is a tough matchup on the ground as well, and Tampa was unable to get any ground game efficiency going last week against the Steelers (22nd in DVOA vs the run). Peyton Barber has disappointingly averaged only 2.9 yards per carry to begin the year, on 43 rush attempts in all. He’ll need a multi-touchdown game or a complete breakdown on the Bears’ defense to become a respectable DFS piece this week.

BEARS PASS OFFENSE

Tampa has been very attackable through the air this year, ranking 27th in DVOA against the pass and 29th in yards allowed per pass attempt. Not only is Tampa’s aggressiveness forcing opponents to become aggressive in response, but their secondary is a mess — making it easy for teams to have success attacking in this way. The Bears’ Vegas-implied total of 24.75 says a lot about how disappointing this offense has been to begin the year, as they have the pieces in Jordan Howard, Allen Robinson, and Trey Burton to post a big game in this spot.

The Bears will likely be without rookie Anthony Miller this week (dislocated shoulder), which would further tighten the distribution of targets on this team. Through three games, target counts on the Bears’ primary wide receivers and tight ends look like this:

28 — Allen Robinson // 22 — Taylor Gabriel // 15 — Trey Burton // 11 — Anthony Miller

Gabriel was functioning as a glorified running back through the first two games, seeing all of his targets close to the line of scrimmage, but the Bears threw to him 15 or more yards downfield on four different occasions last week, and he is a sneaky bet for a big game in this spot. Gabriel’s route tree from last week (below) reminds heavily of the way Nagy and Andy Reid used Tyreek Hill last year with Alex Smith: mixing in deep shots with short passes designed to get the ball in his hands. Gabriel has a quietly solid floor as a snap hog in this offense (74.3% snap rate last week — behind only Robinson among wide receivers), and Nagy will surely look to attack deep a few times against this Bucs defense.

Robinson is the target leader on this team, but he is primarily being used close to the line of scrimmage (below). It is worth noting that Tampa has accounted for their deficiencies in the secondary by trying to force short throws, with only 10 teams seeing a lower aDOT than Tampa (and with Tampa allowing the highest catch rate in the league). Only three teams are allowing a higher expected yards per target than Tampa, in spite of the low aDOT, as teams are piling up catches and easily turning these into extra yards afterward. This is a quietly good spot for Robinson as well.

Burton has disappointed to begin the year, and he will need his involvement to spike before he can be considered a reliable piece. Naturally, if his involvement does spike, he’ll be in line for a strong day — but there are no data points that allow us to comfortably predict a forthcoming rise in usage. Burton is nothing more than a bet-on-talent guessing game right now.

BEARS RUN OFFENSE

Tampa ranks 18th in DVOA against the run so far this year, but they rank seventh in fewest yards allowed per carry, and only two teams have allowed fewer rushing yards, as opponents are turning to the air in this spot. The truth of this matchup likely lies somewhere in between that DVOA mark and that “yards allowed per carry” mark, making this a somewhat middling matchup in which volume projects to be a slim concern for Jordan Howard. Through three games, Howard has touch totals of 20, 17, and 26 — with his pass work spiking in games where his rushing work drops, making him a workload-secure option on any slate right now.

The biggest drawback for Howard so far has been efficiency. He has yet to top 82 rushing yards in a game in spite of seeing three middling-to-favorable matchups. This puts him in a strange place this week for us in DFS, as it wouldn’t be surprising if he cracks 100 yards and punches in one or two touchdowns this week, but it also wouldn’t be surprising if he fails to top 82 yards again and fails to score. Howard costs 13.6% of the salary cap on DraftKings, but he is priced at a more reasonable 12.7% on FantasyDraft and 12.0% on FanDuel.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

This game doesn’t pop off the page, but there are some nice pieces to consider — and it is likely that at least one or two strong tourney games emerge from this spot.

Bucs receivers have a slightly below-average matchup, but Mike Evans is seeing enough guaranteed, high-upside work to be in good position to hit once again. With his price climbing, he’s still simply “in the bucket,” instead of being locked in (the matchup introduces enough question marks that we have to have at least some “floor” concerns), but he’s the likeliest guy to hit in this game. Behind him on the Bucs, Godwin and Jackson will continue to split snaps, with Jackson having plenty of upside on his deep shots (but carrying scary floor). Godwin has decent floor for his price and solid ceiling. You could also take a shot on the upside of O.J. Howard (or even on the scoring usage of Cameron Brate), but these guys carry a lot of question marks. I’m unlikely to use Ryan Fitzpatrick in a tougher matchup than he’s had the last couple weeks, but don’t be surprised if he has another solid game.

On the Bears, I like Robinson as a floor/ceiling play and Gabriel as a price-considered floor/ceiling play. Gabriel particularly stands out on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, where his role should provide underrated PPR security, at a low price, on sites with tight pricing. There may be too much guesswork here for Gabriel to be locked into cash games, but there are things to like if you are comfortable trusting Trubisky to get him the ball.

I’ll almost certainly avoid Burton and Howard myself, but it won’t be surprising if one of them posts a strong game in this spot. For that matter, it won’t even be surprising if Trubisky posts a strong game. Hey — you only live once, right? Maybe that means you should play sub-optimal quarterbacks while you still have the chance to do so…

BROWNS // RAIDERS OVERVIEW

Let’s get this out of the way first:

Quarterback pricing is not tight this week, and you can roster Andy Dalton in an expected shootout in Atlanta for $500 more than Baker Mayfield on FantasyDraft and FanDuel, and for $100 more on DraftKings. I bring that up because my half-decade in DFS has trained me to realize that people love shiny new toys. And Mayfield is the shiny new toy this week…

Now that that’s cleared out of the way, we can dig into one of the more fun games to pay attention to this weekend.

BROWNS PASS OFFENSE

It was necessary to lay in that disclaimer before beginning this writeup, as there are a lot of unknowns in play here (we’ll get to those in a second). But there is also a lot to like, and this is not remotely like the first career game of Johnny Manziel a few years ago, when he was the “shiny new toy” and was, laughably, the chalk play of the week against this same defensive coordinator in Paul Guenther, who destroyed the weekend of many DFS players when Manziel passed for 80 total yards and two interceptions against the Bengals.

The matchup is non-threatening, against an Oakland defense that ranks 31st in aDOT to begin the season — generating no pass rush (32nd in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate) and giving quarterbacks plenty of time to pick apart this zone-heavy coverage unit. The schematic elements on the back end of this defense should theoretically make it difficult for wide receivers to produce (Guenther was famous for this during his time with the Bengals), but as long as Oakland struggles to generate pressure, they will struggle to slow down wideouts. Through three games, Oakland has allowed the third-most receiving yards in the league to wideouts, while allowing the sixth-most touchdowns.

The unknowns in this spot are obvious. We have a rookie quarterback in his first career start, with boxed-in coaching minds in Todd Haley and Hue Jackson. Optimally, a sharp coaching staff would tailor their playbook this week to add in RPOs and bubble screens and other college-level elements that would make this a comfortable start for Mayfield in a great matchup — but there is no guarantee that Haley and Jackson will do this. Each of these coaches can be great at attacking a defense, but they have historically needed players who “fit what they want to do,” rather than being adept at tailoring their system to their players’ talents. For a final piece of “uncertainty,” Mayfield is working with a number two receiver in Antonio Callaway who is a raw rookie, a number three wide receiver in Rashard Higgins who would not be starting on 90% of NFL teams, and a talented but sloppy tight end in David Njoku.

With all that out of the way, let’s have some fun:

If the greatest attribute Mayfield boasts is his accuracy, his second-greatest attribute is his mental fortitude. Not only is this a guy who breathes football, but this is also a guy who has channeled this passion in all the right ways — carrying extreme confidence and leadership abilities, and bringing energy and positivity to the huddle. These are intangible things, but they are massively important. Mayfield is perfectly equipped to pull this offense together (in spite of working under a negative coaching staff that seems hellbent on tearing their players apart). The “us against the world” narratives make Mayfield a perfect fit for this huddle, and I genuinely believe we are in for a fun ride with this team the rest of the season.

Mayfield’s confidence and “football-breathing” lifestyle also show up on film in the aggressive throws he is willing to take, and in the calm he shows when things start breaking down around him. While you can practically see Sam Darnold “thinking” on about half his plays, Mayfield is letting loose and just plain playing. (Obviously: Darnold and the other 2018 rookie quarterbacks have plenty of time to get to that point; that’s nothing against Darnold as a prospect, but it’s fun to see a rookie step in and read things quickly and react aggressively right away.) There will be growing pains this season…but a weak pass rush and a talent-low zone defense are not the places where these growing pains are likely to get in our way.

Three games into the year, only five players have more targets than the 37 Jarvis Landry has seen. (For those who like fun factoids: Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara both rank above Landry; so do Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster.) Landry is lining up everywhere and running routes at all levels of the field. Oakland is holding opponents to a below-average catch rate, but they are bottom five in the NFL in YAC per reception, and Landry should be able to do damage with his work this week.

Jarvis Landry Week 3 route tree:

Last week, Antonio Callaway actually played three more snaps and ran two more pass routes than Landry; and while he will obviously be the first read less often than Landry, he is clearly the number two option in this attack at the moment. In Week 3, Callaway saw 10 total targets — with two deep shots fed his way, and with a lot of short stuff outside the numbers. Early in the season, Oakland has been far, far worse over the middle (and deep middle) than they have been outside the numbers — making this a matchup that sets up better for Landry than for Callaway; but at 8.6% of the salary cap on DraftKings, 8.9% on FantasyDraft, and a jaw-dropping 7.5% of the salary cap (minimum priced) on FanDuel, he deserves attention.

Behind these two, David Njoku should soak up a handful of targets. He dropped from seven targets in each of the Browns’ first two games to only two looks last week, though both of those looks came from Mayfield — and while Oakland has started hot against the tight end position, Njoku will be running plenty of routes over the middle of the field. Floor remains a concern, but upside is evident.

BROWNS RUN OFFENSE

The DFS universe is trying to make the running back position easy on us this week, with Carlos Hyde maxing out at 11.33% of the salary cap on FanDuel (and coming in all the way down at 10.3% on FantasyDraft, with DraftKings in between at 11%), after starting the season with touch totals of 24, 17, and 26. Oakland ranks 28th in DVOA against the run and 29th in yards allowed per carry, creating a great spot for Hyde in a game in which the Browns really should be favored, in spite of playing this game on the road, as they are simply the better team between the two.

Mayfield is not likely to show heavy check-down tendencies, as he is an aggressive quarterback and can take off and run if all his receivers are covered; but his presence should open running lanes for Hyde — forcing the defense to respect the pass, and forcing the defense to respect Mayfield’s legs. If Hyde gets 18 to 20 carries this week, he’ll be a strong bet to crack 100 yards for the first time this year. Hyde also leads the NFL with carries inside the five-yard-line with six, and he has rewarded the Browns’ faith with four touchdowns on these looks.

RAIDERS PASS OFFENSE

Through three games, the Browns’ defense ranks fifth in pass defense DVOA and 11th in yards allowed per pass attempt, holding opponents to significantly below-average marks in both aDOT and catch rate, while forcing opponents to pick up their yards after the catch.

This sets up poorly for Amari Cooper and Jordy Nelson, who both operate best as big downfield targets that pick up their yards through the air. Jordy has a fluky 10.3 YAC per reception (seventh in the NFL), though his expected YAC per reception (6.9) paints a much better picture of his skill set. Amari’s YAC per catch sits at only 4.4.

On a more positive note for these guys: they are combining for over 50% of the Raiders’ air yards so far, with Jordy seeing 16 targets through three games and Amari seeing 18. This is a creatively-schemed offense that has quietly generated over 300 passing yards per game, though there are still a lot of question marks in trying to target these two, as their roles are fairly interchangeable, and there is no clear picture right now of who will see more targets on a given week.

Jared Cook rounds out the main pieces of this passing attack, with a 19% share of the Raiders’ air yards in spite of an aDOT of only 5.4. He has seen target counts so far of 12, four, and six, and he should be schemed another five to seven looks in this spot.

RAIDERS RUN OFFENSE

Oakland has continued to struggle on the ground to begin the year, ranking 27th in yards per carry. Marshawn Lynch has carry counts of 11, 18, and 19 to start the season, but he has yet to top 65 rushing yards in a game. He has added target counts of two, two, and three, and will likely need a multi-touchdown game in order to do serious box score damage.

Behind Lynch, coach’s pet Doug Martin has continued to soak up looks, with touch counts of six, eight, and nine. His high yardage mark on the season is 43.

Jalen Richard also continues to soak up snaps each week in this timeshare backfield, with another 20 snaps last week, and with 22 total touches on the year.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

The biggest concern for the Browns’ passing attack is volume, as the Raiders are unlikely to race out to a lead here, and the Browns could hold Mayfield to around 30 pass attempts as a result. Outside of that concern, I really don’t have any major concerns on this attack. Even if the Browns fail to layer in some college concepts this week, Mayfield should be able to operate smoothly in this matchup with the offense the Browns have been trotting out there to date — and Jarvis Landry should be able to notch double-digit targets. Mayfield will absolutely be on my QB list heading into the weekend, while Landry will have a place on my WR list as well. Behind these two, Callaway is a high-upside play with some consistency concerns, and with concerns over what the Raiders take away on defense (the outside of the field, where Callaway has been most heavily targeted). There are also consistency concerns on Njoku, who has looked disinterested in his route-running early in the year. In spite of these concerns, the upside on both of these guys is legitimately week-winning at their price tags, making them interesting tourney options.

I like Hyde quite a bit this week — and while he would need more guaranteed pass game work in order to truly be a lock-and-load play for me, he’ll at least make my list. I like the way this game shapes up for him.

On the other side, it’s difficult to get a read on the Oakland passing attack, as it was easy to predict last week that Amari Cooper would set up poorly for work following his Week 2 explosion, but it was impossible to predict the big game from a washed-up Jordy Nelson in a very difficult matchup. It seems likely that one of these guys posts a solid stat line this week, but it’s a guessing game as to which that will be — and the floor is still low enough on each that I won’t go hunting myself.

The rest of this Raiders’ attack is spreading the ball around too much to draw my attention. Good games will pop up from this team from time to time throughout the season, but those good games will rarely come from the exact player anyone is expecting.

SEAHAWKS // CARDINALS OVERVIEW

Honestly and truly, I love what I do for “work.”

Naturally, Tuesdays and Wednesdays are insane each week — with back-to-back 16-hour days, filled with massive amounts of study, research, and writing (I usually sleep about eight or nine hours after I wrap up the NFL Edge at 5 A.M. on Wednesday morning…and I still wake up feeling exhausted) — but I am able to work from home (channeling my inner cat and moving spots throughout the day, often writing a couple games from bed, a couple games from the couch, a couple games from the recliner in our apartment that overlooks the dog park through the big corner windows, four or five games from the standing desk in my office, et cetera…), and I get to watch football, study football, and write about football. But, man! Some games take a lot longer to pick apart and figure out than others — and as I write this (at 9 P.M. on Wednesday night), the last four games I have tackled have been Bengals // Falcons || Dolphins // Patriots || Buccaneers // Bears || and Browns // Raiders. All four of those games took more time than normal, and all four were among my lengthiest writeups of the season.

I love what I do for “work”…but it’s nice to run into a game like this after a stretch like that. Seahawks and Cardinals? Sheesh. This game is tied with the Jets // Jags for the lowest Over/Under on the slate, and I imagine we’ll be able to make fairly quick work of this spot.

SEAHAWKS PASS OFFENSE

Russell Wilson has been asked to emulate Superman throughout the early portions of the season, with a poor offensive line and a poor supporting cast. After throwing for 298 yards in Week 1, his yardage totals without Doug Baldwin have been 226 and 192.

The matchup in this spot is entirely non-threatening (with Patrick Peterson sticking to his side of the field, the Cardinals have been hit hard through the air early on, ranking 18th in DVOA and 28th in yards allowed per pass attempt in this Steve Wilks zone that really requires an elite secondary in order to work), though if Baldwin misses this week (more on this in a moment), Russ will be working with a “top three” of Tyler Lockett, Brandon Marshall, and Jaron Brown.

Last week, Lockett ran 28 of a possible 29 pass routes, while Brown checked in at 20 and Marshall checked in at 17. The Seahawks dialed up a ridiculous 40 rushing plays last week in order to shorten the game against Dallas and see if they could find something that might work on offense.

Three games in, Marshall has exactly six targets in every game and Brown has exactly three in every game. Lockett has target counts of four, seven, and six, and he’ll avoid Peterson on roughly 70% of his routes. Lockett also has the best role in this offense, with an aDOT of 13.7, and with 28.7% of the team’s air yards. His xYAC/R (expected yards-after-catch per reception) of 7.2 ranks seventh in the league. Marshall or Lockett could post a decent fantasy day if things go just right — but Lockett is the far likelier of the two to turn in something impactful.

Behind these receivers, the Seahawks continue to run a timeshare at tight end, with Nick Vannett playing 35 snaps last week to 39 for Will Dissly. Vannett quietly ran 16 pass routes to only 14 for Dissly, and until usage changes here, Dissly will remain a scary fantasy bet, in spite of the solid stat lines he has posted in two of three weeks.

If Baldwin returns this week, this entire story changes, as he will step back into his typical slot role with plenty of downfield targets, after notching an aDOT of 12.5 last season on 7.25 targets per game. With Jimmy Graham gone, Baldwin’s targets should rise, and he and Russ would become an interesting stacking combination in a game that could serve to get the Seahawks’ offense back on track. Notoriously positive coach Peter Carroll has said he’s “confident” Baldwin has a “chance” to play this week. Have fun figuring that one out before we (hopefully) gain more clarity on Friday.

SEAHAWKS RUN OFFENSE

Only two teams in the NFL are averaging fewer yards per carry than Seattle, though it’s not for lack of trying. Last week, Seattle gave a ludicrous 32 carries (and only two targets) to Chris Carson. Carson is a talented back, but he averaged only 3.2 yards per carry on those looks, and he sits at 3.9 YPC on the season behind a Seahawks line that ranks 28th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards. Arizona enters this game ranking 11th in DVOA against the run and 14th in yards allowed per carry — with the personnel to make life difficult for opposing rushing attacks. Arizona has allowed the most running back touchdowns to begin the year, but this is more a result of teams constantly working with short fields (and getting into scoring position through the air) than it is through any major leaks in the Cardinals’ run defense. The one positive data point here is the massive workload Carson saw last week — which may be repeatable if Baldwin misses one more game, as Seattle will look to win in any way they can. If Baldwin returns, Carson’s workload will become less bankable — and with this coaching staff, there is always a chance they pull a fast one on us and give Rashaad Penny all the looks this week.

CARDINALS PASS OFFENSE

There was actual zip on the passes Josh Rosen threw last week — something that was sorely lacking when Sam Bradford was under center. From an arm-talent perspective, he will be a clear and obvious upgrade over his veteran counterpart, though he is still stepping into a poorly-schemed offense with limited weapons, and he will deal with the typical growing pains rookie quarterbacks deal with: taking too long to read the field, waiting for guys to get open instead of throwing them open, and failing to see defenders who are lingering outside the normal range of vision. This formerly no-name Seahawks defense is beginning to make a name for themselves through the air, ranking 4th in DVOA against the pass and seventh in yards allowed per pass attempt. Only five teams have faced a lower aDOT to begin the year, and only six teams have allowed a lower expected yards per target.

Seattle has been most attackable over the middle, where Larry Fitzgerald will soak up snaps if healthy. Fitz played through his hamstring injury last week and has a history of being on the field come Sunday, though he saw only two targets in spite of playing 96% of the team’s snaps. His range is extremely broad this week, as it wouldn’t be surprising if he sees only three or four targets again, and it would also not be surprising if he sees double-digit looks and pops off for a big game.

Rosen’s go-to target last week was Christian Kirk, who played 74% of the team’s snaps last week in spite of Fitzgerald soaking up most of the slot work — where Kirk will play in the future. This playing time bump has been encouraging, as Kirk is easily the Cardinals’ second best receiver, and it was necessary to get him onto the field even if his slot role is taken. Kirk turned his eight targets into a 7-90-0 line, and he ran a pass route on 30 of a possible 31 opportunities. Kirk is playing at multiple spots in the Cardinals’ formation, and he should run around 70% of his routes away from the right side of the field — where Seattle has been (by far) the strongest. Another five to eight targets is his likely range.

The rest of this passing attack is spare parts, with Chad Williams hauling in one of 10 targets to date (not a typo), and with Ricky Seals-Jones yet to make any sort of box score impact on an average of five targets per game — in a likely low-scoring affair.

CARDINALS RUN OFFENSE

On the one hand, Seattle’s greatest weakness has come against the run, where they rank 28th in yards allowed per carry and 21st in DVOA against the run, while coming in at 23rd in adjusted line yards on defense.

On the other hand, Arizona’s rushing attack has been absolutely broken, ranking 26th in yards per carry to begin the year. This could change with the quarterback switch, but we are still not seeing the sort of creative usage we need to see from the Cardinals in order for David Johnson to post the monster stat lines we have come to expect from him. The idea of jamming in high-priced running backs began in 2016, when David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell were must-plays every single week. It’s crazy how quickly these things can change.

D.J. is still hogging a massive snap share, playing 86% of the snaps last week and running 24 of a possible 31 pass routes; but he continues to be used like a running back, rather than like a WR/RB hybrid, and this is limiting his upside. After seeing nine targets in Week 1, he has target counts of two and four since then.

With all that said: D.J.’s price has dropped to a high-water mark of 13.2% of the salary cap (DraftKings), leaving him in the range of guys like Tevin Coleman and Jordan Howard. He’s too good to be held down forever, and a big game is sure to hit soon — even if a true blowup will be off the table for as long as his pass game usage is held in check.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

There is a little more to like in this game than expected, but there are certainly no “locked in” plays.

If Baldwin makes his way onto the field this week, I’ll have definite tourney interest in both he and Russ. Russ has not suddenly lost his talent, and getting back his best weapon against a bad pass D would give him a chance to pop. If Baldwin misses, I’ll have thin tourney interest in Lockett — though it’s difficult to see him posting a true, week-winning game given the current state of this attack with Lockett as the number one guy.

On the other side, I have some interest in Kirk — and while there are a number of affordable wide receivers we have uncovered so far in this week’s NFL Edge (several of whom likely have fewer question marks), I’ll at least add Kirk to my early-week list when I read through the Edge on Thursday, and I’ll dig in deeper on all these guys on Thursday and Friday to see who makes the cut for me from there.

In theory, I also like the idea of targeting a blowup game from D.J. this week with his price dropping; but in reality, I’m unlikely to actually go there. This week seems no more likely than the last two for his usage and production to finally return to the levels we were once able to expect.

FRIDAY EVENING UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

Doug Baldwin will play this week for the Seahawks. It is anyone’s guess as to how many snaps he will actually play, but it seems unlikely that he falls shy of seven targets, as the Seahawks will surely try to get him the ball in order to get their offense rolling. The bigger question is whether Baldwin’s knee is truly healthy enough for him to take on his signature downfield/upside role. I like Baldwin quite a bit as a tourney play this week, but there are obviously question marks and corresponding floor concerns.

SAINTS // GIANTS OVERVIEW

One of the most enjoyable things about putting together the NFL Edge is the way I get to sort of gradually see, as I move through all the games, how the slate shapes up. (I guess it’s the same journey you get to take yourself if you wait for the NFL Edge to begin your research.) And it stands out to me this week that Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara each rank in the top five in the NFL in targets per game…and they have a good matchup against the Giants…and we have uncovered a number of solid values throughout our exploration of this slate. Not to say that jamming in Thomas/Kamara is guaranteed to be the “right way” to approach this slate; but it looks doable, and it will be an interesting approach to play around with. (As always on a week like this: finding other guys at the high end of the price range to pivot toward in tourneys is also an interesting approach to play around with.) The NFL is saving a couple of the best games for last this week — with Saints // Giants || 49ers // Chargers the last games to kick off. These games will draw heavy ownership interest, and this is a week in which no winnings will be safe until the final whistle blows.

SAINTS OFFENSE

The Saints are essentially a “zero edge” offense right now — the sort of offense that gives a boost to the casual DFS player and keeps them coming back, as the only way to really get this spot “wrong” is to overthink it. For that matter: the Saints could conceivably be considered worse than “zero edge” right now, as we — being sharper DFS players than most of our competition — learn to get into the habit of thinking and researching deeply into each game to uncover all the little gems available on the week…which can lead to overthinking…which can lead to the casual player having a small edge over us in spots like this one.

In the interest of “not overthinking,” then:

With Mark Ingram out, the Saints have been forced to become one of the pass-heaviest offenses in the NFL. After ranking 20th in pass play rate last season, New Orleans ranks fourth in 2018. And one year after ranking first in DVOA on the ground, New Orleans ranks 15th. As a team, the Saints are averaging only 3.9 yards per carry — good for only 19th in the NFL.

Because Sean Payton is a good coach (and because the Saints have Drew Brees), they have adjusted by going pass-heavy. And because Sean Peyton is a good coach: he is mercilessly targeting his two best weapons. The combined target totals for these two have been 29 // 19 // 30.

With the Giants boasting no pass rush to speak of (28th in adjusted sack rate), teams have been attacking them downfield, and only two teams have faced a deeper aDOT through two games of the year. It will be interesting to see how the Saints adjust here (if at all), as they have been using Michael Thomas in more of a possession role so far, with an aDOT of only 7.2 (surrounded by names like Randall Cobb, Cole Beasley, and Cooper Kupp), though he has the ability to go downfield, which could open a little more yardage upside this week. Thomas’ greatest value has been his red zone role in the league’s second highest-scoring offense — with six targets inside the 10 and nine targets inside the 20. He ranks behind only Smith-Schuster and Kamara inside the 20, and no one has more targets inside the 10.

Through three games, Kamara has target totals of 12, six, and 20, with carry totals of eight, 13, and 16. He is the main piece of this offense right now, which puts him in great shape against a mediocre Giants defense, on a team with one of the highest Vegas-implied totals on the slate. As with Thomas, the biggest bonus for Kamara is his red zone role, with more targets in the red zone than any other player in the league, and with more carries inside the 10 than any other player. With Kamara and Thomas on the field together, the Saints have a hard time not scoring when they reach the red zone, and these two are the main pieces this team is using to cross the goal line.

Behind Thomas and Kamara, pass routes run in Week 3 looked like this (out of 53 total pass plays available):

38 — Ted Ginn // 32 — Ben Watson // 27 — Cameron Meredith // 22 — Josh Hill // 18 — Tre’Quan Smith // 9 — Austin Carr

Ginn has seen at least six targets in every game with the Saints going so pass-heavy, and this is as good a spot as any for him to hit, against a Giants defense that can be attacked deep. With a number of lower-upside “five to eight target” guys in play this week, don’t forget about the upside Ginn brings to the table on his six to eight looks.

The Giants have also seemingly fixed their tight end issues this season — but Ben Watson has target counts of four, five, and six through three games, and matchup shouldn’t be a concern.

Behind these guys, the Saints’ offense still carries upside — but good luck guessing if it’ll be Meredith, Hill, or even Smith or Carr who will see a red zone target this week.

GIANTS PASS OFFENSE

The Saints have been dismantled through the air so far — to a point where they benched Ken Crawley last week for P.J. Williams, and then benched Williams partway through the game for Crawley. The Saints are generating no real pass rush (they rank 20th in adjusted sack rate), and Marshon Lattimore is the only corner who is holding his own against opposing wide receivers. With Evan Engram set to be sidelined with an MCL sprain and Cody Latimer more space-eater than anything in this offense, the Giants will give us flashes this week of Shurmur’s Vikings pass attack from last season, in which Thielen and Diggs were the primary guys every week. Look for Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard to each see a large chunk of Giants targets against the Saints.

We’ll start with Shepard, who surprisingly checks in at a high-water mark of only 10.33% of the salary cap on FanDuel. Not only can we expect the Saints to score points, but we can expect Marshon Lattimore to be on Odell Beckham roughly 80% of the time, while Shepard will soak up extra targets over the middle in the absence of Engram. I’m penciling in Shepard for seven to nine targets, but there is genuine upside for double-digit looks, after he saw seven targets on only 29 Eli Manning pass attempts last week, with Engram leaving in the second quarter.

Beckham will draw shadow coverage from Lattimore on the 80% of snaps he runs outside of the slot — but there really isn’t a corner who can win against Beckham in man coverage, and expectations should be high for him this week. He comes into this game averaging an elite 11.33 targets per game (to put that into context: only four players averaged double-digit targets in 2017), and this pass-heavy game script against a bad pass defense plays perfectly into his favor. Beckham slots in as one of the safest, highest-upside plays on the slate.

Last week, as expected, the Giants’ pass attack took a step forward in their first non-poor matchup of the year, with Eli Manning completing 86% of his passes and racking up 297 passing yards on only 29 attempts. The one drawback in this spot for the Giants is that they have been focused on short passes so far, and the Saints have been far more beatable deep; but this is a very winnable matchup nonetheless, with game script almost certain to favor the pass — making Beckham and Shepard strong plays in Week 4.

GIANTS RUN OFFENSE

Entering Week 4, the Saints rank first in the NFL in DVOA against the run, and dead last in DVOA against the pass — and they also boast the second highest-scoring offense in the NFL, which should put pressure on the Giants to turn to the air more heavily as this game moves along.

So far this season, Saquon Barkley has seen interesting usage in the pass game, with five targets against Houston and six against Jacksonville, compared to 16 targets against the Cowboys. The biggest difference presented by the matchup against the Cowboys was that they run an extremely zone-heavy scheme that focuses on clogging up the short areas of the field. This effectively took away what the Giants like to do most, and allowed them to open extra looks for Saquon. This week, against one of the man-heaviest coverage units in the league, we’re likelier to see Saquon in the five to eight target range as Eli attacks more heavily with receivers — keeping Saquon’s ceiling intact, but making it a bit tougher for him to hit. Against a pass funnel defense in Houston last week, the Giants still gave Saquon 18 carries, so the work should be there — and as he showed in Week 1, he can score from anywhere on the field. But he’ll likely need to hit one of those big plays in order to really bring the week-winning upside we should be hunting for in his price range.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

While I don’t want to “overthink” this spot, I do want to “think” it. And there is at least one major concern for the Saints this week — which is the slow-it-down philosophy Pat Shurmur has brought to this Giants team. After running one of the fastest offenses in the league last year, the Giants currently rank 27th in pace of play, and only four teams are allowing fewer opponent plays per game. There is no reason for us to be concerned about the Saints shutting down the Giants…and while this theoretically contributes to shootout potential, this will also lead to a lot of long, slow Giants drives — and could lead to the Saints running more like 55 to 60 plays than the 64, 66, and 79 they have been able to run thus far. That’s a small ding to this Saints offense, and it will eat into the PPR and half-PPR production of Thomas and Kamara a little bit. Obviously, the overall upside remains, and their red zone roles don’t change. They remain two of the top raw plays on the slate.

Behind these guys, Ginn is a very intriguing piece — in tourneys, of course, but even borderline in cash, as he joins several other guys in the “five to eight target” discussion. Watson is worth a mention, but is probably not a guy I’ll be looking to. Brees joins a small pool of other quarterbacks as clearly-superior plays this weekend.

Another piece of the “five to eight target” discussion is a guy I expect to see at least seven to nine looks in Shepard. He stands out to me at first pass through this slate as one of the stronger price-considered options available. His role is secure, and the Giants should be passing plenty.

I also love Beckham as an appropriately-priced player with week-winning upside. I could also see a tourney shot on the upside that Barkley carries every week; though Shepard and Beckham stand head and shoulders above any other pieces on this offense this week.

FRIDAY EVENING UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

Cody Latimer is now out this week for the Giants, in addition to Evan Engram. Latimer — as noted above — is more space-eater on this offense than impact player, but this further shortens the target distribution for the Giants. Shepard, OBJ, and Saquon will be heavily involved.

49ERS // CHARGERS OVERVIEW

The 49ers enter this writeup with the third-lowest Vegas-implied total on the slate, behind only the Jets and the Bills. On the other side of this matchup, the Chargers enter this writeup with the highest Vegas-implied total on the main slate. With this game stamped as having clear blowout potential, there are a few things we should expect (namely: a lack of interest in one side of the ball, and strong interest in the other), but there are also a few elements that will make this an interesting game to dig into.

49ERS PASS OFFENSE

The Chargers’ defense has been really, really disappointing against the pass to begin the year, ranking 26th in DVOA and 31st in yards allowed per pass attempt. They are getting tortured downfield, and they are tackling poorly after the catch. And while they have dropped in adjusted sack rate in the absence of Joey Bosa (18th so far, after ranking seventh last year), this only accounts for a small part of the issues this defense is having.

The good news ends there for the 49ers. While the Chargers got raked over the coals by Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff, they are now facing C.J. Beathard. Across six games last year (five starts), Beathard completed only 54.9% of his passes, with only four touchdowns, and with six interceptions. He is a clear backup-caliber player. Shanahan was able to scheme some solid yardage games out of Beathard last season, but he crumbled in the red zone — completing only seven of 17 passes, with one touchdown and one pick.

All 49ers weapons take a hit with Beathard under center. Across those six games last year, Beathard produced zero 100-yard receiving games, and only four games of more than 70 yards for a single pass-catcher: lines for Marquise Goodwin of 4-78-0, 1-83-1, and 4-80-0, and an outlier game in which Carlos Hyde hauled in nine catches for 84 yards. Your best bet in this pass attack is a big play from Goodwin, but even that comes with question marks and a low usage floor.

49ERS RUN OFFENSE

Similar to Jay Ajayi a couple weeks back: Matt Breida checked out of the 49ers’ game in Week 3 with what appeared to be a serious injury (and turned out to be a hyperextended knee), later returned to the game with adrenaline pushing him through, and now looks iffy for the week ahead. Breida got in a “limited” practice on Wednesday, but it may have been nothing more than working out on a side field.

If Breida misses this week, Alfred Morris will see his role grow a bit more after touching the ball 12, 16, and 14 times through three games. Alf is averaging only 3.8 yards per carry and has only two receptions on the season, while the 49ers will turn to Kyle Juszczyk on passing downs if Breida is on the sidelines.

Juszczyk has zero carries on the year, but he has target counts of two, four, and four so far, and he ran 23 of a possible 39 pass routes last week. Obviously, we’re getting into some thin plays right here.

If Breida plays, he will continue to split time with Alf in spite of being the most efficient per-touch back in the league so far this year. This backfield is full of question marks and low on guaranteed floor, even if pairing two of these guys together.

CHARGERS PASS OFFENSE

San Francisco’s pass defense has been hit hard this year on downfield passing and yards after catch, while ranking 29th in DVOA against the pass, allowing the third-most passing touchdowns, and hauling in zero interceptions. This is a severe mismatch on paper, as the Chargers’ offense ranks fourth in DVOA through the air and seventh in yards per pass attempt.

While target expectations have to be considered “insecure” for Mike Williams, with target counts of six, two, and seven to begin the year, this is a sneaky-strong spot for him to hit, as he has been used most aggressively by this offense down the sidelines and in the red zone. The left sideline has been the biggest trouble spot for the 49ers, with Jimmie Ward replacing Ahkello Witherspoon there last week; but with Richard Sherman out, both corners will be manning the boundaries now, creating a potential smash spot for Williams if he sees seven to nine targets. The game in which his targets dropped came against a Buffalo defense that stymies receivers on the perimeter. Williams ran 26 of a possible 32 pass routes last week — only two fewer than Keenan Allen.

The 49ers remain below-average in the middle of the field, though the short middle is one of the only areas where they have been above-average early on. This is where Keenan Allen runs the overwhelming majority of his routes. He should be in line for a strong workload, in a game the Chargers should control — giving him a solid floor. But he’ll likely need one of his spiked-target weeks (those weeks in which he sees 14 or more looks) or a multi-touchdown game in order to really justify his price tag. Those spiked-target weeks will pop up for Allen throughout the season, but they are becoming tougher to bet on with Mike Williams emerging — and the likelihood of a blowout lessens the chances that this will be one of the games in which Allen sees a ridiculous number of targets.

Behind these two, we have Tyrell Williams soaking up three to five looks of his own each week. He’s a guy who needs to hit a long play in order to be worth a roster spot — and while that puts him in the conversation against this defense, you are still looking at something like a 3-70-1 line if Williams “hits” for his ceiling.

CHARGERS RUN OFFENSE

The Chargers enter an interesting setup here, as the 49ers rank 29th in DVOA against the pass but eighth against the run — making them a clear pass funnel defense…but because the Chargers should be leading deeper in the game, we should expect them to lean on their running backs.

The beauty of this setup is that Melvin Gordon is in good shape either way. If the Chargers stick with a run-heavy approach — which Ken Wisenhunt is smart enough to only do if this is proving effective — Gordon will be leaned on. And if the Chargers nurse their lead with a short passing attack (the likelier scenario), Gordon will be part of this. Don’t be fooled by Gordon’s low touch counts on his stat lines; he had 24 touches in Week 1, before dropping to 15 in Week 2 while resting most of the second half, and 17 in Week 3 with the Chargers running only 52 plays. San Francisco has allowed an incredible 70.7 opponent plays per game to begin the season, and Gordon should be in line for another 22 to 25 touches this week.

The Chargers have been using Gordon and Austin Ekeler on the field together — sometimes lining them up in the backfield together, and sometimes splitting Ekeler out wide, which should not only disabuse us of the notion that Ekeler is “eating into Gordon’s snaps” (Gordon played another 76.9% of the snaps last week), but should also allow us to realize that these two can, theoretically, produce together. Ekeler played 18 snaps last week, with seven touches on those snaps. Again: the Chargers only ran 52 plays last week, and they should be in line for a clear double-digit increase this week. Expect Ekeler to settle in for around five carries and four or five catches.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I will take a hard pass on all 49ers players. Some yards may pile up, but true upside will be very difficult to come by. (On that note: I also like the Chargers’ defense a decent amount.)

On the Chargers, I’m pretty high on Mike Williams at the moment, as another guy in this happy parade of underpriced wide receivers with a clear range of five to eight targets, and with upside on those looks. He’s behind Shepard for me, but almost certainly ahead of Boyd, and more clearly ahead of guys like Ginn and Gabriel — guys I have highlighted throughout the article, and who I do like; but who seem less likely than some of these later guys to crack the smallest, sharpest version of my personal player pool.

Keenan Allen will likely draw a chunk of DFS attention this week, and I like him for a strong “floor” game — though his short-area usage puts a cap on his ceiling when he isn’t seeing 14+ targets. He’ll have those games this year, but this seems like a less likely spot in which to find it.

I think Gordon is getting a bit overpriced, sitting so close to Kamara on all three sites, but he’s a solid play in a vacuum. His touches should be there, and the matchup isn’t too big of a concern given the multiple ways the Chargers can use him.

Behind Gordon, Ekeler is an interesting salary-saver — though with how much strong value we have been able to uncover this week, he feels a bit thin. He’s unlikely to land on any list of mine, but I do expect another solid game.

FRIDAY EVENING UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

Matt Breida is a game-time decision for the 49ers’ late kickoff against the Chargers. Alfred Morris is also questionable. If only one guy plays, he will become an intriguing salary saver — though Juszczyk will still soak up some pass game work either way. The best scenario for DFS would be for Alf to miss and for Breida to play, as this would give Breida a chance for huge tourney upside. But this appears to be the least likely scenario — and either way, we’ll have to wait until Sunday afternoon to know anything for certain.

RAVENS // STEELERS OVERVIEW

This division matchup has been given an Over/Under of 50.5, with Vegas showing more faith in the offense of the Steelers than in the defense of the Ravens. With Jimmy Smith set to miss one more game and the Steelers’ offense operating at such a high level, this is reasonable. The Steelers scored 26 points in this matchup the first time around last year (a comfortable 26-9 win), and they won 39-38 at home later in the year. With the Ravens’ offense improving quite a bit since last year and the Steelers’ defense taking a couple steps back, we should be in for some fun on Sunday night.

RAVENS PASS OFFENSE

Joe Flacco has had a quietly strong start to the year, with nearly 900 passing yards through three games, and with six touchdowns to two interceptions. The Steelers have begun to show signs of life on the back end (they really only looked awful against Mahomes — and it is becoming evident that this will be a trend for the league this season), and even with that nightmare matchup accounting for 33% of the Steelers’ action so far, they rank 23rd in yards allowed per pass attempt and 16th in DVOA. The Steelers’ pass rush has also picked up, as they rank fifth in adjusted sack rate — after finishing first in the NFL in that category last season.

With all that said: this is not a stay-away matchup for Flacco, and the likely high-scoring nature of this game will send the Ravens to the air.

John Brown continues to dominate looks for this Ravens attack, with the deepest aDOT in the NFL (ahead of Tyreek Hill and DeSean Jackson), and with the seventh-highest percentage share of team air yards in the NFL (40.3% — just ahead of Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, and Jarvis Landry). If you’re not tired of hearing me talk up John Brown, I’m not doing my job. With his price finally climbing, it makes it that much more likely that he will continue to go overlooked by the masses.

As expected last week, Willie Snead saw his looks dwindle in the coverage of Chris Harris, while Michael Crabtree worked as the primary underneath option, racking up a low-upside 7-61-0 line on 10 targets. Coming into Week 3, Snead and Crabtree had seen almost identical usage, in terms of role in this offense, with the only major difference being Snead’s elevated snap count from the slot. This week, Snead and Crabtree should split around 12 to 16 targets, with each guy needing an unpredictably big YAC day or a touchdown to pay off.

RAVENS RUN OFFENSE

Pittsburgh is more attackable on the ground, ranking 22nd in both DVOA and yards allowed per carry — though the high-scoring nature of the Steelers’ attack will make it difficult for the Ravens to pile up massive volume in this area.

Through three weeks, Alex Collins has yet to crack 70 yards on the ground, behind an offensive line that ranks 23rd in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards. Collins is averaging 3.4 yards per carry — and while he had a run-tough matchup against Denver last week, he previously took on the Bills and the Cincy defense that CMC undressed in Week 3. He is struggling early in the season and would take a leap of faith to play on the larger slates — though on the Showdown slate, he is at least a workload-secure back, with ascending touch counts of eight, 12, and 21. With only passing back Javorius Allen sharing space with him in the backfield, Collins should touch the ball at least 12 to 18 times once again.

Collins’ upside will always be limited by his two-down role, while Allen’s upside will be limited by his specialist role. Through three games, Allen has touch counts of nine, 11, and nine, though he has buoyed his lines with four touchdowns in all. This is an unappealing split workload when you get down to it, but each guy will see the field and touch the ball, which can be worth something on the Showdown.

STEELERS OFFENSE

I have a theory right now, and I am interested to see how it plays out over the next few weeks:

I think the Steelers have abandoned the run. As in: I don’t think it’s been “game plan specific,” and I don’t think it’s been due to game flow. I think the Steelers have pretty much decided they are going to replace Le’Veon Bell with JuJu Smith-Schuster — running only sporadically (only to “keep the defense honest,” in the purest sense) until later in the second half. This seems like the sort of thing Ben Roethlisberger and Randy Fichtner would try out, and I’ll be interested to see if Pittsburgh once again goes pass-heavy through the early portions of this game. Three weeks in, only four teams have thrown the ball more frequently than Pittsburgh, and they sit at a 67.74% pass rate after notching a 59.7% mark last year.

When Pittsburgh throws the ball, Roethlisberger is locking onto Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, with the former ranking second in the NFL in targets per game at 14.0, and the latter ranking fourth at 12.7. Red zone numbers are skewed toward JuJu so far, but I’m not looking at that as predictive, so much as I’m seeing it as an indication that AB and JuJu are fairly interchangeable right now, with each guy being schemed the ball proactively. Both of these guys are incredibly versatile, and this offense has proven to be versatile as well — with the route trees for each guy looking entirely different from game to game, and with the areas of the field being attacked most heavily by the Steelers changing from game to game as well. Typically in the NFL Edge, our job is to find the area where the defense is weakest, and to then discern which players will benefit as a result. The Steelers are an NFL Edge of their own, as they do this work for us: proactively creating routes and alignments that will enable their two best weapons to pressure the weakest points of a defense. The consistency we are likely to continue seeing this year from two elite receivers on the same roster is going to be extremely impressive. This is another spot where you can feel comfortable with either guy, as the Steelers are working right now to figure out exactly how they can use these two this week to maximize their production.

Usage for James Conner has dipped since Week 1, with carry totals of eight and 15. The eight carries came with the Steelers falling behind early against the Chiefs, but the 15 carries in Week 3 were in danger of not even cracking double-digits before Pittsburgh leaned on the run late while icing a big lead. Baltimore is stout against both the run and the pass, so we shouldn’t credit the run-tough matchup as the reason the Steelers are likelier to take to the air; but we have plenty of reason to believe that this team prefers to trust the aerial attack when all things are equal.

Through the air, Conner has target counts of six, five, and six. He is running plenty of pass routes, but with AB and JuJu downfield, Conner is rarely being schemed the ball through the air. He’s becoming a strange version of the bell-cow running back: a guy playing almost every snap, but still difficult to trust for a clear 20 touches.

With the Steelers and Bucs playing on Monday night, Vance McDonald had his price set before his 4-112-1 line, making him appear underpriced on the full slate. Realistically, however, we highlighted heading into Week 3 the fact that McDonald had run 33 of a possible 71 pass routes the week before, and last week he ran 26 of a possible 43. Vance is going to continue ceding some snaps to Jesse James (and James probably has one or two more big games in him this year as well), and he is going to continue to carry monster upside given his elite YAC ability (similar to Matt Breida: McDonald was a guy I was happy to bet on in Best Ball drafts before the season, as I expected him to put up some big games this year). But he is also going to have some duds along the way, as he is the fourth option on this offense behind the wide receivers and Conner — and there will be weeks when he is really more like the fifth option, with James Washington taking away looks as well. McDonald is an iffy-floor, high-upside play each week.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

On the Ravens’ side of the ball, there is really only one guy I would add to my list on the full-weekend slate, in John Brown. On the Showdown slate, Crabtree and Snead hold some sneaky appeal as strong “floor” plays with slender touchdown upside, but neither guy is likely to be a true difference-maker. Joe Flacco is obviously the lesser of the two quarterback options in this spot. The Ravens’ backfield is decent as a space-filler, but so far this year, this unit has been a fairly ineffective split workload. If digging real deep, you could go to the tight end timeshare of Nick Boyle, Maxx Williams, and Mark Andrews; but with Andrews leading this group last week with only 17 pass routes (of a possible 44), that’s digging real deep indeed.

Obviously, I have no interest in the Ravens’ backfield — but if playing the Showdown, it seems likely that one of these guys will score a touchdown. Whichever does could end up proving to be a useful piece.

Big Ben will stand out every week right now as one of the top quarterback options on any given slate. This goes triple or quadruple for small slates. Obviously, AB and JuJu join him as excellent options in almost any matchup at the moment.

Conner is in play on the small slate for his high usage floor, but after the way he was used last week with the Steelers jumping out to a big lead, it is appearing less and less likely that he will turn into a true Le’Veon Bell replacement, with 25+ touches a weekly occurrence. The emergence of JuJu as an elite downfield weapon is taking some of the shine off this play, and unless usage swings heavily back in his favor, he’ll be more “appropriately priced” than “underpriced” moving forward.

You could wrap up this attack with a Showdown shot on McDonald or Washington. Heck, even Jesse James remains in long-shot play. Every week, there will be an opportunity for one of these guys to hit.

CHIEFS // BRONCOS OVERVIEW

As artificial intelligence takes over more and more of the world, I’d say my job remains fairly secure, as there is so much nuance and unique craft to each individual week of a football season — with innumerable human elements that only a human brain can truly project and account for. But at this point, I probably could replace my writeup of the Chiefs’ offense with a robot.

Copy. Paste. Roster. Repeat.

CHIEFS PASS OFFENSE

We haven’t seen anything like this before. That sounds like hyperbole, but it is backed up by Patrick Mahomes having thrown, literally, the most touchdown passes any quarterback in the history of this sport has thrown through the first three games of a season.

We haven’t seen anything like this before.

With so many unique elements capable of straining a defense in so many unique ways — and with a brilliant offensive mind in Andy Reid putting these pieces together — it’s honestly a shame that this team’s defense is so bad. Not a shame from a DFS perspective, of course, as this is an extremely fun element to account for on each slate (similar to the “jam ’em in” problem that arose in 2016 with DJ and Le’Veon), but a shame from a historical perspective, as the Chiefs deserve a better shot at a championship than this offense will have as they try to drag this defense to the finish line.

I can’t even guess the last time we saw a team projected by Vegas for over 30 points at Denver, but here we are.

The Broncos enter this game ranking 19th in DVOA against the pass and fifth against the run, which sets up nicely for this team through the air.

While Tyreek Hill has played the role of the track star so far for this offense — being targeted almost exclusively downfield — Sammy Watkins has seen variable usage, working the short areas of the field two weeks ago against the Steelers, and working deep last week vs San Francisco. The sample size is too small, with only two games — and Andy Reid’s complexity of strategic thinking is too layered — for us to safely draw conclusions just yet on how we can project Watkins’ usage to shake out from one week to the next; but we do know the Chiefs are wanting to keep him involved. He has ascending target counts of five, seven, and eight to begin the year, and he is regularly being featured as the first read. The Chiefs will find a way this week to work Watkins into favorable matchups throughout the game.

Hill showed his prophesied floor last week, but let’s not forget the ceiling he showed us the first two weeks of the season. Analysis grows thin here, as this is a guy who posted a 7-169-2 line on only eight targets in Week 1, and who face-planted for a 2-51-0 line on five targets last week. We are going to see five to eight targets almost every week for Hill, making him dangerous at his elevated price tag; but five catches can be enough for Hill to post the highest score on the slate. He enters every week right now with the broadest range of outcomes of any player on the slate — all the way from week-winning to crush-your-roster. By Football Outsiders’ metrics, no team has been worse over the deep middle than the Broncos to begin the year, so this elevates Hill’s chances of landing a haymaker — but the low-targets remain an issue.

Chris Conley is involved each week with two or three underneath, lower-upside targets of his own, but this pass attack truly wraps up with Travis Kelce, who has put his 1-6-0 Week 1 dud behind him with back-to-back 10-target games. Even in that Week 1 game, Kelce saw six targets, and he should be considered the highest floor/ceiling combo player in this passing attack at the moment.

CHIEFS RUN OFFENSE

Kareem Hunt posted a fine line last weekend with his two-touchdown game, but he once again saw only one target — bringing his total on the year to three. It should go without saying that this is extremely concerning usage for a player who works best in space. With carry counts to begin the year of 16 // 18 // 18, we need to view Hunt right now in the way we would view a secure-usage two-down back. As noted last week: there is a chance one of these weeks that Hunt is proactively schemed some targets — either because of something Reid sees in a matchup or because of a “squeaky wheel” treatment — but we need to consider those to be outlier weeks at the moment.

As a yardage- and touchdown-dependent back, it’s noteworthy that Denver ranks fifth in DVOA against the run and second in yards allowed per carry. Hunt will need a spike in passing work or another couple touchdowns from close to the end zone in order to make a big dent this week.

BRONCOS PASS OFFENSE

Case Keenum has failed to throw a touchdown in back-to-back games, and he now has three touchdown passes to five interceptions on the year. This is a good reminder that Keenum was a career backup and journeyman before being transformed last year on a Vikings team that had a lot going for it. Keenum will have some blowup games, but he’ll also have some rough patches this year for John Elway’s Broncos.

The Broncos will almost certainly open this game with a run-heavy approach against the Chiefs’ 30th-ranked run defense (DVOA), in an effort to keep the dynamite KC offense on the sidelines. Once the Chiefs leap out to a lead, however, the Broncos will be forced to open up their offense, which should lead to a comfortable 35 to 38 pass attempts. The Chiefs have been scoring so quickly this year, they have ended up allowing the third-most opponent plays per game, so there is also upside for Keenum to creep above 40 pass attempts for the first time this year.

Emmanuel Sanders has backtracked a bit after his stratospheric opening weekend, hauling in nine of 12 targets for 134 scoreless yards across Weeks 2 and 3. Targets are really the big thing here, however, as his 10-135-1 line on 11 Week 1 targets compares nicely with the combined line he put up in Weeks 2 and 3. If Manny sees 10+ targets again in this spot, he should post one of the stronger stat lines on the weekend. Double-digit targets appear to be a safe bet in this game, with the Chiefs likely to put up points when they have the ball.

While Sanders has seen 12 targets the last two weeks, Demaryius Thomas has seen 16 looks — posting a disappointing 10-81-0 line across those targets. He is now sitting at only 144 yards on 26 targets — for an ugly 5.5 yards per target on the year.

Waving at offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave in the background is Courtland Sutton, who continues to show monster upside on his catches — with an average yards per catch of 18.2, ranking 13th in the NFL. At this point, it needs to be acknowledged that Keenum cannot be relied on to consistently involve a downfield threat — but if there were a spot for Sutton to burst into the public consciousness, this would be it. No team has allowed more pass plays of 20+ yards than the Chiefs, and Sutton’s aDOT of 13.1 is providing the work that can take advantage in this spot. Sutton quietly has over 20% of the Broncos’ air yards on the year, and he’s an obvious upside piece on the Showdown slate.

Behind these three, the Broncos are involving spare parts Jake Butt and Jeff Heuerman at tight end. Neither guy is seeing consistent or high-upside usage. Each would need a broken play or a touchdown to be worth a roster spot.

BRONCOS RUN OFFENSE

High-octane rookie Phillip Lindsay was ejected last week for throwing a punch, and in his absence Royce Freeman posted a respectable 4.1 yards per carry against a tough Ravens defense, though his pass role remained almost nonexistent, with only one target — bringing his total on the year to two. Freeman has maxed out at 15 carries and is in the Kareem Hunt class of “guys who need a touchdown in order to pay off,” with such a limited pass role. Hunt, of course, has the advantage of locked-in work, whereas Freeman will go back to splitting snaps with Lindsay.

Lindsay has also seen limited pass game work with only six targets, but he’s the likelier back to take on heavy snaps if the Broncos fall behind, as he is more versatile than his counterpart. Something like 10 to 12 carries and two to four catches is a reasonable projection here.

If you wanted to dig into deep long-shot plays: Devontae Booker saw seven targets last week in Lindsay’s absence, and he would be the likeliest guy to see added snaps if the Broncos shake things up in catch-up mode. Obviously, this backfield is a mess on the main slate, but you could possibly make a case for going here on the Showdown.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Mahomes // Kelce // Watkins // Hill // Hunt for safety on the Chiefs.

Mahomes // Hill // Kelce // Watkins // Hunt for upside on the Chiefs.

That’s about the way things are going to shake out most weeks for now on this offense. It is worth noting that all five of these guys have clear 20-point potential on any given week — so don’t assume that a position at the end of that “upside” list means “no upside.” There is upside across this entire offense each week. On the main slate, Mahomes and Kelce would leap to the top tier at their respective positions, while Hill and Watkins would be tourney plays for me. All five guys can be considered on the Showdown.

Last week, I had 100% of my money on a single roster — without any additional large-field shots taken. On a week like that, I probably wouldn’t play anyone from this Broncos team, though Sanders would obviously deserve strong consideration. On the Showdown slate, I slot Sanders in between Kelce and Watkins for safety, and I probably position Sanders right next to Kelce for ceiling. Keenum is holding this offense back, but Sanders’ upside is evident if the targets are there.

Obviously, Sutton would be my other guy on the Showdown slate. I don’t typically play the one-game “slates,” as that’s not my play style; but perhaps I’ll play this week, simply in order to have a roster that bets on the Sutton explosion.

Elsewhere on this team, it’s tough to have a ton of interest. The split backfield is unappealing on the large slates that include this game, and while each of Royce and Lindsay (and possibly even Booker) need to be considered for tourneys on the Showdown, none of them are “best plays.” The same goes for Demaryius Thomas, who looks washed. He can obviously hit in this cake matchup; but his chances are lower right now than Sanders and even Sutton.