Week 2 Matchups

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0.00 :: Jaguars // Titans
8.47 :: Panthers // Bucs
16.26 :: Broncos // Steelers
22.32 :: Rams // Eagles
33.09 :: Bills // Dolphins
39.22 :: Vikings // Colts
47.24 :: Lions // Packers
57.28 :: Falcons // Cowboys
64.44 :: Giants // Bears
70.51 :: Washington // Cardinals
79.56 :: Chiefs // Chargers
87.38 :: Ravens // Texans

Missing 49ers // Jets; but thankfully, you also know how to read!


Kickoff Thursday, Sep 17th 8:20pm Eastern

Bengals (
19.5) at

Browns (
25.5)

Over/Under 45.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bengals Run D
23rd DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
7th DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
16th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
23rd DVOA/27th Yards per pass
Browns Run D
20th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
27th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
19th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
26th DVOA/13th Yards per pass

In his 2 games vs CIN in 2019, Baker Mayfield completed just 45% of his passes and threw 5 interceptions to his 4 total TDs (3 pass, 1 rush)Mayfield threw an INT and barely completed half of his passes in the first game of 2020In Week 1, albeit in a negative game script, Kareem Hunt had 19 touches (13 att, 6 tg), his highest total as a BrownIn Chubb & Hunt’s 7 games together, Chubb has 5 single-digit DK pts games and 2 games above 26 DK ptsChubb’s averages fell to 15.2 att/g & . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Sep 20th 1:00pm Eastern

Jaguars (
18.75) at

Titans (
25.75)

Over/Under 44.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jaguars Run D
22nd DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
11th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
32nd DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
2nd DVOA/16th Yards per pass
Titans Run D
16th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
17th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
24th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
21st DVOA/19th Yards per pass

Derrick Henry’s last 3 performances vs JAC (17.7 att/g): 50.8 DK pts, 11.6, 32.5Despite being defended well by DEN, Henry was still given 31 carries in Week 1The only times Henry was given 30+ carries in 2019 were Weeks 17-19 when he averaged 196 rushing yds & scored 4 TDsFour RBs surpassed 30 DK pts vs JAC in 2019: McCaffrey (50.7 DK pts), Henry (33.5), Ekeler (37.3), D Freeman (33.7); and 3 more surpassed 100+ rush yds: Hyde (19.0), J Williams (18.7), Mack (19.9)In Week . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Sep 20th 1:00pm Eastern

Panthers (
19.75) at

Bucs (
27.25)

Over/Under 47.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Panthers Run D
26th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
6th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
13th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
9th DVOA/8th Yards per pass
Buccaneers Run D
3rd DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
16th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
1st DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
11th DVOA/11th Yards per pass

After losing many of its better players from 2019, the CAR D opened 2020 by allowing 34 pts to the RaidersBrady goes from facing one of the strongest secondaries of 2020 to one of the worstCAR allowed the 9th most WR DK pts/g in 2019, lost top CB Bradberry to NYG, replacement CB Apple wound up on IR before Week 1, and other starting CB Jackson left Week 1 with an ankle injuryRuggs had 55 yds & nearly a TD before getting hurt in the 2nd quarter and returning to the game ineffectiveGodwin dominated CAR in 2019, producing games . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Sep 20th 1:00pm Eastern

Broncos (
17.25) at

Steelers (
23.75)

Over/Under 41.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Broncos Run D
5th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
14th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
9th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
12th DVOA/23rd Yards per pass
Steelers Run D
1st DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
20th DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
8th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
31st DVOA/26th Yards per pass

Ben played against Fangio’s defense twice last decade (DC: CHI & SF), throwing just 1 TD to 3 INTs, 2 FL, & 6 sacksDEN’s 14th ranked pass efficiency defense in 2019 allowed the 8th fewest DK pts to QBs and the 9th fewest DK pts to WRs on the 3rd fewest WR targets facedDEN’s offseason replacement for Chris Harris, AJ Bouye, is now on IR along with their best player, Von MillerDavis & Brown combined for 12 rec (16) 140 yds vs DEN in Week 1After starting the game with a muffed punt, Diontae Johnson led PIT . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Sep 20th 1:00pm Eastern

Rams (
22) at

Eagles (
24)

Over/Under 46.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Rams Run D
21st DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
25th DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
11th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
29th DVOA/24th Yards per pass
Eagles Run D
15th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
1st DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
29th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
10th DVOA/18th Yards per pass

The McVay/Goff Rams have lost both games to the Pederson/Schwartz Eagles (35-43, 23-30); Nick Foles actually played more of those two games than Carson Wentz didGoff has thrown 2 TDs vs 1 INT, 2 FL in the two gamesGoff threw quick and short (lowest avg intended air yds) in Week 1, likely to minimize the DAL pass rush, and now faces a PHI pass rush that racked up 3 sacks & 10 QB hits vs WAS without starter Barnett2019 PHI allowed the 4th-most WR DK pts/g, but added Nickell-Robey Coleman and Darius Slay . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Sep 20th 1:00pm Eastern

49ers (
24.25) at

Jets (
17.25)

Over/Under 41.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
49ers Run D
7th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
29th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
22rd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
30th DVOA/32nd Yards per pass
Jets Run D
14th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
9th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
31st DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
17th DVOA/21st Yards per pass

Kyle Shanahan has faced Gregg Williams defenses 3 times as coordinator, scoring 30, 27, & 28 offensive points with Schaub, Rosenfels, & Ryan2019: In Jimmy’s 8 games vs defenses ranked in the top half of rush efficiency, he averaged 33.8 att/g, compared to an average of just 25.8 att/g in the 8 games vs bottom half rush efficiency defensesIn 2019, the NYJ faced the 8th most pass attempts thanks to a 2nd ranked rush efficiency defense, allowing the 3rd fewest RB rushing yardsWeek 1 vs the Jets was Josh Allen’s career high in pass . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Sep 20th 1:00pm Eastern

Bills (
24) at

Dolphins (
18.5)

Over/Under 42.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bills Run D
24th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
23rd DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
28th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
11th DVOA/17th Yards per pass
Dolphins Run D
32nd DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
32nd DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
10th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
4th DVOA/6th Yards per pass

Fitzpatrick’s first two matchups vs McDermott came in 2019, finishing with 21.6 & 15.9 DK pts in two losses (21-31, 20-37)The Bills sacked Fitzpatrick 7 times in the second game, and opened 2020 with 3 sacks on Sam DarnoldFitzpatrick threw for 3 INTs in Week 1, with Tua waiting in the wingsOffseason additions Howard & Breida combined for just 29 yds on 13 touches, while Gaskin produced 66 yds on 13 touches of his ownBell, Gore, & Adams managed a combined 92 yds, TD on 16 touches vs BUFDevante Parker was leading the team . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Sep 20th 1:00pm Eastern

Vikings (
23) at

Colts (
26)

Over/Under 49.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Vikings Run D
27th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
22nd DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
8th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
15th DVOA/10th Yards per pass
Colts Run D
6th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
2nd DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
3rd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
20th DVOA/22nd Yards per pass
  • Frank Reich has faced Zimmer three times as an OC, winning both with PHI (21-10, 38-7) and losing with LAC (14-31)
  • Rivers is 2-5 vs Zimmer as CIN DC & MIN HC, averaging 253.9 yds, 1.14 TDs, 1.72 TOs, 2.4 sacks
  • Playing behind a much better offensive line in IND, Rivers wasn’t sacked for the first time since Week 5 of last year
  • Rivers began the season with 363 yds passing & a TD, but he also threw 2 INTs
  • MIN’s inexperienced CBs and weakened D-Line allowed GB to have a field day passing the ball (364 yds & 4 TDs)
  • Parris Campbell & TY Hilton each received a team-high 9 targets in Week 1, and Hilton’s 53 yd day probably looks better without his 2 drops on the final drive
  • While Adams was lighting up the defense every which way, Valdez-Scantling beat the MIN Def for 2 deep balls (1 TD): TY Hilton has been one of the best deep receivers in football during his career, and Parris Campbell is one of the NFL’s fastest players
  • Rivers has targeted RBs at least 100 times in every season of his career, and his top targeted RB has ranked either 1st or 2nd in team targets in 4 of the last 5 years
  • In Week 1, Hines, Taylor, & Mack each received 8, 6, & 3 targets
  • With Mack now done for year, Hines & Taylor will now split all of Rivers RB targets
  • GB RBs didn’t produce much through the air, but they caught 9 total passes vs MIN
  • GB RBs on the ground produced 139 yds on 28 att vs MIN
  • Jonathan Taylor was 23 yards short of finishing with 2000+ rushing yards in all 3 of his NCAA seasons
  • Hines’s 73 total yds were the 3rd most of his career, and the most since Week 8 of 2018
  • After allowing five 3+ touchdown passers in 2019, IND’s defense opened 2020 allowing Minshew to complete 19/20 passes for 173 yds, 3 TD
  • Against a tough QB matchup in Week 1, Cousins managed to put up 22.8 DK pts thanks to some garbage time comeback scoring
  • Most of the receiving production that IND allowed in Week 1 came to JAC WRs, as Cole, Shenault, & Chark combined for 109 yds, 3 TD
  • Eight WRs finished between 24 & 34 DK pts vs IND in 2019
  • IND ranked 24th in Explosive Pass rate allowed to WRs in 2019
  • Adam Thielen’s 8 targets were 4 more than anyone else, and he hooked up with Cousins on multiple deep balls, finishing with 6 rec for 110 yds, 2 TD
  • Thielen had the NFL’s 4th highest share of team air yards in Week 1 (55.5%)
  • Irv Smith only ran 2 more routes (16) than Rudolph (14)
  • IND limited RBs to 9th fewest DK pts in 2019 thanks to the 6th fewest rushing yds & 10th fewest receiving yds allowed
  • IND did allow the most RB receptions in 2019: JAC RBs caught 4 passes for 36 yds in Week 1
  • Prior to his injury last year (10 games), Cook averaged 4 rec for 42.4 yds
  • Cook only played on 58% of the snaps in Week 1, however the blowout nature of the game likely played a role in this
  • Cook still dominated usage near the endzone with 2 short touchdowns

Game Overview ::

  • The sun rises in the east and sets on Mike Zimmer trying to run the ball to win
  • The Colts opened up their offense last week with a pass-heavy approach
  • Reich is great in the red zone; so is Zimmer; this matchup will dictate the flow of this game
  • This seemingly high Over/Under may actually be a bit low; there are pieces with a shot at breaking out in this game, and there are ways to bet on this game as a whole

How Minnesota will try to win ::

In Week 1 against the Packers, the Vikings had six first-and-10 plays when the score was within seven points. They chose to run the ball on five of those six plays. No team ran the ball on first and 10 within seven points at a higher rate than Minnesota (while the list around them is littered with the expected — Baltimore, Chicago, Las Vegas, both teams from Los Angeles…and the unexpected, in the Bucs), and this paints a perfect picture of how the Vikings would prefer to win. Even trailing for most of their game against the Packers, Minnesota threw the ball on only 55% of plays (league average is generally around 62% to 63%), and last year they ranked 30th in pass play rate, while Kirk Cousins topped 32 pass attempts in only a third of his games (while never topping 38 attempts).

Furthermore, we know that the Colts’ defense is designed to keep the ball in front of them — with Gardner Minshew’s Week 1 stat line (19 of 20 passing, but with his average pass traveling only 4.5 yards downfield) a perfect encapsulation of what the Colts want to turn their opponents into. Cousins and the Vikings’ offense are too aggressive to settle for 4.5 yards through the air per pass — but the farther downfield they look, the more concentrated the defense’s focus will be.

How Indianapolis will try to win ::

Indy made us look smart last week by shedding their run-heavy ways and allowing Philip Rivers to let it rip. On first and 10 with the score within seven points, the Colts threw the ball at the ninth highest rate in the league, and this week they get to take on a Vikings team that got rinsed repeatedly by Aaron Rodgers on Sunday. As noted last week :: Mike Zimmer is likely to eventually get this defense playing well; but his scheme relies on communication and precision to mask talent deficiencies, and that can take several weeks to come together. Indy should be able to move the ball through the air in this one, which should keep them leaning pass-heavy for at least another week. It’s worth noting that Rivers is one of the best quarterbacks in the league when blitzed (in five of the last seven years, Rivers has posted a better passer rating when blitzed than when not blitzed!), and Minnesota tried to make up for their lack of pass rush on Sunday by blitzing at the third highest rate in the league. Zimmer is not typically a blitz-heavy coach, so he may not try this again; but it’s either blitz and hope Rivers makes some mistakes, or it’s don’t blitz and give him plenty of time with this mismatch in the trenches. (Not only did the Vikings lose studs Linval Joseph and Everson Griffin in the offseason, but their last remaining stud up front — Danielle Hunter — was put in I.R. this week. The Colts, of course, have one of the best lines in football.) Either way, this spot sets up well for the Colts’ passing attack.

In the run game, the Colts will lean on “potential rookie phenom” Jonathan Taylor after losing Marlon Mack for the year. Taylor and Mack combined for only 37 snaps on Sunday (Nyheim Hines had 39 snaps of his own), while the strength of the Vikings is still their linebackers, making Taylor a bit of a leap of faith in DFS this week. But we should see a mix of Taylor runs and Hines pass game involvement, and if you want to resort to guessing, it won’t be surprising if one or the other puts up a solid game.

Likeliest game flow ::

There aren’t many games in which you could say the Vikings are likely to throw the ball 36+ times; but this is the sort of game in which the Vikings could get closer to that number, as Indy should be able to move the ball in this spot and put pressure on Minnesota on the scoreboard. Indy has been a top eight red zone offense both years under Reich, while Minnesota has finished as one of the five toughest red zone defenses in three consecutive years under Zimmer. This is the matchup that should dictate the way this game plays out, as Indy field goals in the red zone could lead to a more closed-up game flow; while Indy breaking through for touchdowns against this still-raw defense could open up this game quite a bit — to where the Vikings are attacking more heavily (and to where this is also opening up a bit more space for Cook underneath).

DFS+ Interpretation ::

With Stefon Diggs gone and Olabisi Johnson presenting no real threat, I’m a bit concerned about this Vikings offense at the moment — not in terms of raw performance so much as the price tag you have to pay in order to lock in Dalvin Cook or Adam Thielen. The Colts will be selling out to stop these two, and Thielen’s ownership and price are both likely to rise after he turned his eight Week 1 targets into 110 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Thielen can rise above eight targets, but that’s the bet I would want to be making if going to him (i.e., I would want to say, “I expect this to be a pass-heavy game,” and I would want to build accordingly — looping in the Colts pieces that I would expect to be responsible for forcing the Vikings to lean more heavily on the pass; to put all that another way :: if you roster Thielen, you are either taking a pricey, popular-ish guy and hoping he’s massively efficient on around eight or nine targets; or you are giving yourself an edge on the field by including that pricey, popular guy in a more unique roster construction that bets on him getting more targets than normal, and bets on X piece on the Colts (or X pieces on the Colts) putting up points and forcing this more aggressive attack from Minnesota; obviously, this second path is much better in terms of long-term net-positive ROI). As you know, I love Dalvin Cook in this offense, and I love him as a player; and I love Thielen as a player. But neither pops off the page in this spot. I’ll likely avoid Dalvin this week and hope he finishes on the lower end of his range (while recognizing that even the higher end of his likeliest range — 30 points on DK; 24 points on FD — won’t kill me if I miss out at his price tag), and I’ll likely avoid Thielen unless I’m stacking him with Colts pieces.

With all that said: I do think Colts pieces (and thus: stacking Thielen with Colts pieces) can be considered here. 23 to 31 points would be our general scoring expectation for the Colts here if we were playing this game out over and over again, and Minnesota is solid enough on offense to keep pace by the time it’s all said and done. I put the Vikings’ scoring range at 19 to 30 here, and would actually put the Over/Under at more like 49.5 than the 48.0 at which Vegas has it. (Which is not what I would have expected when eyeballing this game — and which may be what’s keeping this total down a bit.)

The Colts very much treated Parris Campbell like a co-number-one in Week 1 — giving him the most snaps of any skill position player (two more than T.Y. Hilton), and feeding him nine targets and one carry. He had a very healthy aDOT of 11.4, while Hilton also saw nine targets at an aDOT of 12.4. Each guy lines up nicely for seven to 10 targets in this spot as a moderate-floor, high-upside option.

Elsewhere on the Colts, Taylor saw six targets last week; and while he’s likelier to see 15 carries and three or four targets than to again see nine carries and six targets, that usage should still be noted. It’s also worth noting that Mack himself saw three targets against the Jaguars before going down. If that’s what this role continues looking like with Rivers, it becomes pretty enticing, even in a less-than-perfect matchup. Behind Taylor, Hines is a bet on his role continuing at the same level he saw last week (seven carries, eight targets) — which would be a bold bet at what will likely be heightened ownership, but is not necessarily a “fish move.” Hines could very easily see another five to seven carries and five to seven targets here. His floor is low, but there are arrows that point to this play. Finally: the Colts may pass enough to support players beyond the two main wideouts and the two main backs (Jack Doyle played the third most snaps among Colts skill position players and saw four targets; Mo Alie-Cox saw two targets; and Michael Pittman and Zach Pascal were both involved), but these guys are mostly just bet-on-touchdown plays (best reserved for if you’re betting heavily on the other pieces and want to hedge with some additional exposure). (Note: If Doyle and Pittman both miss (Doyle has missed three practices, as of Thursday, and Pittman popped up with a toe issue), Mo Alie-Cox has a clearer shot at four or five targets; but perhaps more importantly, that should concentrate the touches across the remainder of this team.)

All in all, there’s a surprising amount to like in this game. It’s not a perfect spot; but it certainly has some angles that can be played.


Kickoff Sunday, Sep 20th 1:00pm Eastern

Lions (
22) at

Packers (
29)

Over/Under 51.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Lions Run D
30th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
10th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
12th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
6th DVOA/14th Yards per pass
Packers Run D
25th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
13th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
25th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per pass

In games Rodgers has played, GB is 2-1 vs Patricia as HCBoth wins came with LaFleur in 2019, winning two nail-biters 23-22 & 23-20In those games, Rodgers scored 19.3 & 23.0 DK pts behind his 3rd & 5th highest yardage totals of the seasonRodgers did throw 2 of his 4 INTs on the season against DETDET got flamed by Trubisky in the 4th quarter once CHI took advantage of DET missing its top 3 cornerbacks to hamstring injuries, and only managed 1 sack against an average offensive line (as ranked by PFF & Brandon . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Sep 20th 1:00pm Eastern

Falcons (
25.5) at

Cowboys (
28.5)

Over/Under 54.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Falcons Run D
8th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
18th DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
30th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
22nd DVOA/1st Yards per pass
Cowboys Run D
29th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
26th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
21st DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
16ths DVOA/3rd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

The Falcons will try to win through the air, and Dallas will try to force shorter throws. Dallas should go "pass-leaning balanced," and will focus heavily on their four core weapons. Both teams are likely to move the ball; both teams are likely to score. Dallas has the better matchup and the narrower distribution of touches, but both sides of this game are very much in play.

How Atlanta will try to win ::

Same as last year when the Falcons finished first in the NFL in pass play rate, they came out firing in Week 1 — throwing . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Sep 20th 1:00pm Eastern

Giants (
19) at

Bears (
23.5)

Over/Under 42.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Giants Run D
15th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
28th DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
23rd DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
24th DVOA/25th Yards per pass
Bears Run D
11th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
30th DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
2nd DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
29th DVOA/30th Yards per pass

Since the start of 2019, Trubisky has faced six teams outside the top 20 in pass efficiency defense: 20.4 DK pts, 19.7, 20.9 (NYG), 27.9, 33.1, 24.3The NYG Def ranked 31st in pass efficiency defense in 2019, and in Week 1 the Steelers passed for 229 yds, 3 TDOnly 4 teams allowed more DK pts to WRs in 2019 than the Giants despite 17 teams facing more WR targetsEven adding James Bradberry didn’t prevent the Giants from allowing 199 yds, 3 TD to the 4 Steelers receivers in Week 1 (Juju, Johnson, Washington . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Sep 20th 4:05pm Eastern

WFT (
20.5) at

Cards (
27.0)

Over/Under 47.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Washington Run D
17th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Washington Pass D
6th DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
18th DVOA/15th Yards per pass
Cardinals Run D
10th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Washington Run O
21st DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
10th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Washington Pass O
32nd DVOA/29th Yards per pass

Kyler Murray began 2020 facing PFF”s #4 ranked defensive line (SF), and now faces PFF’s #3 ranked defensive line (WAS)To help combat this in Week 1, Kyler had both the 8th fastest time to throw & 8th lowest average intended air yards (NextGen), and he used his legs to the tune of 91 yds, TD on 13 attARI basically took a polar opposite approach to what PHI did vs WAS in Week 1, as Wentz had the highest average intended air yards on the weekWentz threw deep to his WRs so often that Goedert only finished with . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Sep 20th 4:25pm Eastern

Chiefs (
27.75) at

Chargers (
19.25)

Over/Under 47.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Chiefs Run D
28th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
31st DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
2nd DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
7th DVOA/5th Yards per pass
Chargers Run D
21st DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
17th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
11th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
1st DVOA/12th Yards per pass

In 2019, LAC held Mahomes to two of his worst outings (182 yds, TD, INT // 174 yds, TD, INT)Tyreek Hill & Derwin James both missed the first matchup, but each played in the secondIn LAC’s first 2020 game without Derwin, they held CIN to 13 points, forced an INT, and sacked Burrow 3 timesMahomes opened 2020 dropping 211 yds, 3 TD, and nearly had a 4th with a deep TD droppedTyreek Hill is always a threat to break one, as evidenced by his multiple career 50+ yd TDs on Casey Hayward & Chris HarrisTyreek Hill has finished above . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Sep 20th 4:25pm Eastern

Ravens (
28.25) at

Texans (
21.25)

Over/Under 49.5

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Key Matchups
Ravens Run D
2nd DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
23rd DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
7th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
8th DVOA/4th Yards per pass
Texans Run D
23rd DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
5th DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
8th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
19th DVOA/31st Yards per pass

BAL’s 11 regular season opponents following the Peters trade have averaged just 13.5 pts/gBAL ranked 4th in pass efficiency defense in 2019, and began 2020 making a mess of the Cleveland pass offenseWatson was boom or bust against top-12 pass efficiency defenses in 2019, scoring (DK pts): 12.6 – 31.4 – 6.0 – 28.9 – 10.1 – 29.4 – 36.2Of Watson’s 21.8 DK pts in Week 1, 16.2 came on the final 2 drives in garbage time down 31-7In Watson’s first career game without Hopkins, his notable target distribution went . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Sep 20th 8:20pm Eastern

Patriots (
20.25) at

Hawks (
24.75)

Over/Under 45.0

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Key Matchups
Patriots Run D
18th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
8th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
17th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
3rd DVOA/2nd Yards per pass
Seahawks Run D
9th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
3rd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
29th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
27th DVOA/28th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::

Sunday night brings us a super interesting showdown as the Patriots visit the Seahawks. The game total is at a modest 45 points, with the Seahawks favored by four. This is an annoying week for showdowns, to me, with two of my three least favorite teams on island games (Patriots, Saints, and Ravens). The reason why these three teams are my least favorites is that their usage is much harder to predict than most other teams (even QB usage for the Saints!). Let’s dig in and see what we can figure out.

Let’s start . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Sep 21st 8:15pm Eastern

Saints (
25.75) at

Raiders (
21.75)

Over/Under 47.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Saints Run D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
24th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
15th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
5th DVOA/7th Yards per pass
Raiders Run D
31st DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
12th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
26th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
14th DVOA/9th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::

Week 2 wraps up with the Saints visiting the Raiders, with a healthy game total of 48.5 and the Saints installed as 5.5 point favorites. The big news, of course, is that Michael Thomas is out, and figuring out how the Saints will adapt to that loss will be a big part of deciphering the slate. 

We’ll start with the Raiders, because they’re a little easier to figure out. The run game is the Josh Jacobs show, and the Raiders showed in Week 1 that they have no problem leaning on him . . .

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