XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 15 begins with the 49ers visiting Seattle for a 43.5 total game in which San Francisco is a 3.5 point favorite. A Thursday night game with some (very) meaningful questionable tags creates a tough situation for us to dig into, but we’ll explore it the best we can.

San Francisco

On the 49ers side, with Eli Mitchell on injured reserve, we’ve seen Christian McCaffrey in an extremely strong role, playing 82% and 70% of the snaps (he lost some work in the second half last week due to the 49ers just dumpstering the Bucs). But, even so, CMC has seen 31 carries and 13 targets in the last two games, putting up Draftkings scores of 28.6 and 32.3. As always, a healthy CMC has the highest ceiling of any running back in the NFL, and we can expect that even with a third (or possibly fourth) string quarterback at the helm, San Francisco is going to lean on their run game. The matchup is not imposing against a Seattle defense ranked 21st in overall DVOA and 26th against the run, making CMC the strongest overall play on the slate (duh). RB2 Jordan Mason had 11 touches last week on 30% of the snaps, but he didn’t see his first touch until late in the third quarter when San Francisco was up by 35 points and they pulled CMC from the game. CMC is questionable here but looks expected to play (he has what seems to be a minor knee injury, but he played through it last week with no issues). Mason is somewhat overpriced for a role that likely gives him extremely little work unless the 49ers blow out Seattle and would need either a CMC injury, another blowout, or a lucky touchdown in order to be relevant. Of course, if CMC unexpectedly sits out (always a possibility on a short week), Mason would look like an elite value play, Tyrion Davis-Price would likely back him up as RB2 at a $200 salary, and the San Francisco passing game would become even more condensed. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

Before we dive into the 49ers receivers, a note on the quarterback situation: Brock Purdy took limited practices on Monday and Tuesday (or rather, it was an estimation of practice status because the team didn’t actually practice on a short week). I assume Purdy will play, but if he misses, Josh Johnson would start instead. My perspective here is that Johnson would be a stronger play than Purdy, but that’s partly just based on draft pedigree as Purdy was this year’s Mr. Irrelevant, while Johnson has shown some success in previous opportunities (304/2 and 307/3 in two starts last year). 

The big news for the passing game is that Deebo Samuel is out, leaving more volume for CMC, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. Jauan Jennings will likely still be in a less-than-half-time slot receiver role (his snaps didn’t really change last week after Deebo exited), while the beneficiaries of Deebo’s absence will be some combo of Ray-Ray McCloud and Danny Gray. The key guys here are, of course, Aiyuk and Kittle. We’ve seen a strong floor from Aiyuk this year but only rare ceiling, with just two games of 20+ Draftkings points, and he’s also been priced up to his highest Showdown salary of the season, so while his role expectation has grown, his salary has grown along with it. Same with Kittle, who isn’t quite at his record-high price (he’s been above $8k twice this year), but close to it. Kittle has a similar or even higher ceiling than Aiyuk, but it comes with a lower floor as Kittle is more likely to disappear from the passing game plan unexpectedly. Kittle has the stronger matchup, and I expect he will come with slightly less ownership (projections are going to favor Aiyuk here based on what he’s done this season) and a slightly cheaper price, which makes him my preferred tournament play between the two. Jennings’ role seems unlikely to change, leaving him what he always is – a low volume, low upside part-time slot receiver who will almost certainly need a touchdown for relevance. McCloud is somewhat interesting at $1,200, as he saw the biggest increase in snaps when Deebo left the game, and while it only came with one target, the 49ers weren’t throwing much by that point. He’s not going to be a primary target, but he’ll be on the field enough to make sense as a value option who can be considered not just a pure punt play. Gray is a pure punt play, and you can also put backup TEs Charlie Woerner and Tyler Kroft into that same bucket. 

saturday slate Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Christian Darrisaw is expected to return for the Vikings after an extended absence meaning Kirk Cousins should have his blindside protection back.
• Nickel corner Kenny Moore missed practice on Wednesday for the Colts with an ankle injury; Moore had played all but three offensive snaps until Week 12 when he injured the ankle.
• The Colts rank dead last in turnover margin at a ghastly -1.1 per game, which jumps to -1.6 per game on the road.
• While the Colts offense has struggled to score for most of the season, they have continued operating with an elevated pace of play with Jeff Saturday as head coach, running more than the league average offensive plays from scrimmage in each of the four games under Saturday.
• Lamar Jackson did not practice Tuesday or Wednesday with his knee injury, while Tyler Huntley returned to a full participant on Wednesday following a concussion early in Week 14, although it remains unclear whether or not Huntley has cleared the league’s five-step concussion protocol (likely not, at this point).
• Cleveland wide receiver David Bell has yet to practice this week with multiple injuries. I tentatively expect him to sit on the short week.
• Amari Cooper has also yet to practice, but is listed as “not injury related-rest-hip.” I tentatively expect him to play.
• The Ravens and Browns are likeliest to play to an ugly slugfest; that said, each team possesses the individual talent to break the game open.
• Miami at Buffalo is a matchup between two of the top six teams in pass rate over expectation (PROE); each defense is also top five in most metrics against the run.
• OT Terron Armstead, WR River Cracraft, S Eric Rowe, S Elijah Campbell, and RB Jeff Wilson missed practice Tuesday and Wednesday this week for the Dolphins.
• Cleveland is expecting a couple of inches of snow and 20ish mph sustained winds on game day (will update this on Saturday).
• Buffalo is expecting another lake effect snow, with 15ish mph sustained winds and a few inches of snow (will update this on Saturday).

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

After starting the season with one game under 37 pass attempts over the first seven games (42.43 pass attempts per game), Matt Ryan has averaged 32.75 pass attempts per game since returning to the starting lineup after being benched half way through the season, with 37 pass attempts in the blowout loss to Dallas being the high point during that time. Furthermore, they have been at or below league average in PROE each of the previous four weeks (again, since Ryan returned as the starter and Jeff Saturday took over as the head coach). The Colts have averaged just 16.1 points per game this season and 19.25 over the previous four weeks. Finally, running back Jonathan Taylor has seen 20 or more carries (and 24 or more running back opportunities) in each of the last four games after hitting those marks only twice over his first six games. Typically in these situations, I will provide the macro before digging into the micro stats, but I felt the recent statistical trends highlighted the shift in offensive (and game planning and management) design for the Colts more succinctly. Another reason for that exercise is I’ve seen a lot of the talking heads of the industry calling Matt Ryan one of the top streaming options in season-long due to the matchup with a porous Vikings secondary, but the recent play-calling tendencies and coaching trends exhibited by first-time head coach Jeff Saturday all but render the matchup-induced upside useless.

As mentioned above, running back Jonathan Taylor has seen a slight boost to his workload with Saturday in town – a head coach who has returned the team to one that is trying to win in the trenches on each side of the ball. Taylor has seen that newfound offensive concentration translate to an increased snap rate and a more consistent weekly workload under the new regime, averaging an 85.75% snap rate since Saturday took the helm compared to 73% average snap rate over Taylor’s first six games. The biggest problem I see here is a team whose clear identity (the run) doesn’t align with the path of least resistance from their opponent, as the Vikings have allowed just 3.93 yards per running back carry this year but are ranked near the bottom of the league against the pass both on the season and over the previous six weeks of play. The pure rushing matchup is also a little more pertinent to Taylor’s fantasy expectation as he has seen a reduced pass game role with Saturday as coach, with no more than four targets in any of his previous four contests. The matchup on the ground yields a well below average 4.08 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Minnesota defense allowing 24.4 DK points per game to opposing backfields, inflated by the 12 total touchdowns allowed to the position this season. Although the Vikings have allowed a touchdown on a robust 58.97% of opposing trips to the red zone, that rate drops all the way to 47.83% at home this season (75.00% on the road).

Michael Pittman remains the only near every-down pass-catcher on this offense, playing all but eight offensive snaps over the previous month of play. With all three primary tight ends healthy, we should expect an offense that utilizes 12-personnel approximately 30% of the time. That should keep wide receivers Parris Campbell and Alec Pierce in the 70-80% snap rate range, with WR4 Ashton Dulin on hand to eat up 20-30% of the offensive snaps of his own. Pittman’s 24.9% team target market share ranks 21^st in the league and has fallen a bit with Saturday at coach and Ryan back at quarterback, down to 23.7% in that split. As in, Pittman’s yearly status is that of a WR2 while his status over the previous month is that of a WR3, which has largely been reflected in his fantasy output in those splits (13.5 fantasy points per game on the season ranks 23^rd at the position and he has averaged 12.1 fantasy points per game over the previous four weeks, including no games over 19.1 DK points). The somewhat good news is that Pittman is finally priced at a point that is more in line with his weekly range of outcomes, checking in at a Week 15 price of only $5,800, his lowest since Week 1. Parris Campbell has a laughable 5.6 aDOT but solid 3.7 average yards after the catch per target, while Alec Pierce has operated in the intermediate to “deep” role with a 12.2 aDOT. All three primary pass-catchers rank in the bottom 54 in the league in yards per route run this season, and when combined with the lower pass volume with Saturday in charge, it doesn’t do a lot to inspire confidence in any of their upside this week. That said, the schemed usage and yards after the catch ability of Campbell and the more downfield role of Pierce provide more upside per target than the X-receiver role of Michael Pittman, the latter of whom requires a very specific combination of volume and touchdowns in order to return a GPP-viable fantasy score. Kylen Granson returned from one missed game to the primary pass-catching role amongst the three tight ends, which is interesting considering Jelani Woods’ breakout performance with Granson out of the lineup in Week 12. Woods was the only tight end to see more than six targets over the previous four games, but he retreated to a secondary/situational role last week, playing only 21% of the offensive snaps behind Granson and Mo Alie-Cox. Finally, Parris Campbell has seen the highest rate of targets against zone coverage this season, which the Vikings play at the second highest rate in the league.

3 Game Slate

OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONS

Draftkings || Fanduel

How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::

Saturday slate Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Christian Darrisaw is expected to return for the Vikings after an extended absence meaning Kirk Cousins should have his blindside protection back.
• Nickel corner Kenny Moore missed practice on Wednesday for the Colts with an ankle injury; Moore had played all but three offensive snaps until Week 12 when he injured the ankle.
• The Colts rank dead last in turnover margin at a ghastly -1.1 per game, which jumps to -1.6 per game on the road.
• While the Colts offense has struggled to score for most of the season, they have continued operating with an elevated pace of play with Jeff Saturday as head coach, running more than the league average offensive plays from scrimmage in each of the four games under Saturday.
• Lamar Jackson did not practice Tuesday or Wednesday with his knee injury, while Tyler Huntley returned to a full participant on Wednesday following a concussion early in Week 14, although it remains unclear whether or not Huntley has cleared the league’s five-step concussion protocol (likely not, at this point).
• Cleveland wide receiver David Bell has yet to practice this week with multiple injuries. I tentatively expect him to sit on the short week.
• Amari Cooper has also yet to practice, but is listed as “not injury related-rest-hip.” I tentatively expect him to play.
• The Ravens and Browns are likeliest to play to an ugly slugfest; that said, each team possesses the individual talent to break the game open.
• Miami at Buffalo is a matchup between two of the top six teams in pass rate over expectation (PROE); each defense is also top five in most metrics against the run.
• OT Terron Armstead, WR River Cracraft, S Eric Rowe, S Elijah Campbell, and RB Jeff Wilson missed practice Tuesday and Wednesday this week for the Dolphins.
• Cleveland is expecting a couple of inches of snow and 20ish mph sustained winds on game day (will update this on Saturday).
• Buffalo is expecting another lake effect snow, with 15ish mph sustained winds and a few inches of snow (will update this on Saturday).

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The Ravens have returned to a run-heavy team now that their backfield has returned to relative health, calling a pass play on only 46.97% of their offensive snaps over the previous three weeks – a timeframe that coincides with the return of Gus Edwards (and then J.K. Dobbins). Furthermore, Baltimore has been at or below league average in PROE in all but two games since Week 4. They have paired the increased rush rates with a slow pace of play (28^th-ranked first half pace of play, 28^th with the score within six points, and 29^th overall) and a defense allowing just 19.2 points per game (eighth in the league) to dictate the environment of the games they play, which has resulted in just 62.7 offensive plays run from scrimmage per game (for comparison, that is seven snaps less per game than their 2021 season). For further context on their run-heavy ways, the Ravens have one game all season with more than 33 pass attempts. Another factor in their ability to stick to the run this season has been their defense, which currently ranks 13^th in yards allowed per drive and 10^th in both points allowed per drive and defensive drive success rate allowed.

The Ravens carried five backs on their game-day roster in Week 14, with all five seeing an offensive snap (to be fair, Kenyan Drake played primarily special teams and saw just two offensive snaps but the point remains). Furthermore, the Ravens remain the team with the highest rate of heavy personnel usage, through both the utilization of fullback Patrick Ricard and of blocking tight end Josh Oliver. Ricard’s snaps typically depend on the game environment, which means he is able to play heavy snaps in environments the Ravens are able to control. And although the Ravens employ a deep stable of backs, last week’s game saw Dobbins and Edwards split early down work with Kenyan Drake being reserved almost exclusively for long down and distance-to-go situations. That workload split translated to 15 carries and zero targets for Dobbins, 13 carries and zero targets for Edwards, and one carry and two targets for Drake. It’s fair to expect a similar workload split against a Cleveland defense allowing a robust 28.3 DK points per game to opposing backfields. The rushing matchup yields an above average 4.58 net-adjusted line yards metric and should be considered a strength-on-weakness matchup for the Ravens.

Huntley is tentatively expected to clear the concussion protocol in time to start against the Browns on Saturday, which is interesting considering the extended timeframe most concussions have been operating under since the Tua incident (as in, the protocol is under increased scrutiny, so we’ve seen the league and independent neurologists error on the side of caution). That said, offensive coordinator Greg Roman mentioned to the media on Wednesday that it “will be all systems go (for Huntley).” The only pass-catcher on this offense to see a steady snap rate this season is tight end Mark Andrews, as each of Devin Duvernay and Demarcus Robinson has seen their respective snap rates fluctuate wildly depending on the game plan, game flow, and matchup. Considering the opponent and likeliest scenario this week, I would tentatively expect both wide receivers to end in the 60-70% snap rate range, with only the Browns and their level of success likely to increase those rates. Either way, expect low volume through the air unless otherwise forced.

3 Game Slate

OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONS

Draftkings || Fanduel

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Saturday Slate Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• Christian Darrisaw is expected to return for the Vikings after an extended absence meaning Kirk Cousins should have his blindside protection back.
• Nickel corner Kenny Moore missed practice on Wednesday for the Colts with an ankle injury; Moore had played all but three offensive snaps until Week 12 when he injured the ankle.
• The Colts rank dead last in turnover margin at a ghastly -1.1 per game, which jumps to -1.6 per game on the road.
• While the Colts offense has struggled to score for most of the season, they have continued operating with an elevated pace of play with Jeff Saturday as head coach, running more than the league average offensive plays from scrimmage in each of the four games under Saturday.
• Lamar Jackson did not practice Tuesday or Wednesday with his knee injury, while Tyler Huntley returned to a full participant on Wednesday following a concussion early in Week 14, although it remains unclear whether or not Huntley has cleared the league’s five-step concussion protocol (likely not, at this point).
• Cleveland wide receiver David Bell has yet to practice this week with multiple injuries. I tentatively expect him to sit on the short week.
• Amari Cooper has also yet to practice, but is listed as “not injury related-rest-hip.” I tentatively expect him to play.
• The Ravens and Browns are likeliest to play to an ugly slugfest; that said, each team possesses the individual talent to break the game open.
• Miami at Buffalo is a matchup between two of the top six teams in pass rate over expectation (PROE); each defense is also top five in most metrics against the run.
• OT Terron Armstead, WR River Cracraft, S Eric Rowe, S Elijah Campbell, and RB Jeff Wilson missed practice Tuesday and Wednesday this week for the Dolphins.
• Cleveland is expecting a couple of inches of snow and 20ish mph sustained winds on game day (will update this on Saturday).
• Buffalo is expecting another lake effect snow, with 15ish mph sustained winds and a few inches of snow (will update this on Saturday).

How miami Will Try To Win ::

The Chiefs and Chargers are the only two teams in the league that have been at or above league average in PROE in every game played. There are five other teams that have been at or above league average PROE in all but one game – the Bengals, Vikings, Seahawks, and these two teams. The Dolphins and Bills also have the second and third highest single game instances of PROE. Basically, when the game is on the line, these two teams want to be passing. The other important thing to understand about the Dolphins is that head coach and offensive play-caller Mike McDaniel is one of the most progressive coaches in the league, one who looks to identify where he can go with the football in order to exploit his opposition. Now consider his opposition, a Bills team with a stout defense that is able to generate organic pressure up front, one that has been running increased rates of man coverage as their defense has returned to health, and we’re left with a likeliest game plan that involves increased ball-out-quick mechanics designed to get Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in space. That scenario is amplified a bit by the expected weather as the Buffalo area is expected to be below freezing, with light snowfall and moderate winds on Saturday night. The injuries to Jeff Wilson and River Cracraft are likely to condense the expected funnel of volume further for an offense likely to operate from increased rates of 21-personnel. With all of that in mind, the Bills present the Dolphins with their toughest test to date, something that Vegas agrees with as Miami currently holds a modest 18.25 Vegas implied team total.

Jeff Wilson injured his hip in Miami’s Week 14 loss to the Chargers and has yet to practice this week, making it likely he misses this contest. That should keep Raheem Mostert heavily involved as the clear lead back, likely spelled by Myles Gaskin (whom I’d expect to be active this week). I’d also expect elevated rates of 21-personnel through the utilization of fullback Alec Ingold for a team that has run 50% of their offensive snaps over the previous five games from the grouping. All told, the ultimate workload for the backs here is highly likely to be influenced by game environment, with the Dolphins likeliest to begin the contest in a pass-first posture, only introducing increased rush rates if they assert control into the second half (unlikely). The matchup on the ground yields a well below average 4.05 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Buffalo defense ceding just 21.5 DK points per game to opposing backfields.

The pass game presents an interesting chess match for each team here as the Bills have run increased rates of man coverage now that their defense has returned to health but the Dolphins have faced the second fewest man coverage this season due to their offensive personnel. As in, teams are simply not throwing man coverage at a team that has Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. That said, Buffalo’s three highest rates of man coverage this season have come against the three teams that have seen the most man coverages against (Chiefs, Browns, and Lions), making it more likely we see the team revert back to more modest rates of man coverage considering how the league has chosen to handle the Dolphins this season. From a micro perspective, Tyreek Hill is Miami’s man-beater (phrasing could be better there) while Hill and Waddle have enjoyed equal success against zone this season. Trent Sherfield should continue to operate in the WR3 role for the Dolphins, with Cedrick Wilson and recent addition Freddie Swain on hand to fill any “breather snaps” for the top trio. Finally, Mike Gesicki has ridden off into obscurity, catching a grand total of zero passes over his last three games in a reduced role now that Durham Smythe is healthy again.

3 Game Slate

OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONS

Draftkings || Fanduel

How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• This is a poor game environment that should feature a lot of running.
• Both backfields are timeshares.
• The pass catchers are all cheap but are also unlikely to post a tournament-worthy score.
• This game should be low scoring but the defenses aren’t likely to rack up sacks or turnovers

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

The 5-8 Steelers are limping into Week 15 off a close loss to divisional rival Baltimore. The loss all but mathematically eliminates the Steelers from the playoffs and makes “Mike Tomlin’s first losing season” a near lock. As Tomlin eloquently put it in his post-game press conference, “there is nothing mystical about it.” Although watching the Steelers offense might make you wish that a pack of fire-breathing dragons would incinerate the field, it’s hard to argue with Tomlin’s 10 million-dollar-a-year analysis, there is nothing mystical about being bad at your job.

The Steelers play at a moderate speed (13th overall) and don’t change much based on the scoreboard. They are middle of the pack when the game is close (16^th situational neutral pace) and play their fastest if they are winning (8^th in pace when leading), and slowest if they are behind (16^th in pace when trailing). The Steelers splits here don’t offer much in the way of tendencies but serve to further illustrate that the coaching staff is mashing buttons. The Panthers have been below average on the ground (19^th in DVOA) and equally subpar against the pass (19^th in DVOA). The Panthers lack a relative weakness on defense but the Steelers coaching staff wouldn’t have been looking for one anyway. The problem with Pittsburgh’s offense isn’t talent. Kenny Pickett is a first-round pick. George Pickens, Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth, and Chase Claypool (to start the year), are all above average NFL talents. The Steelers offensive line was pegged to be a bottom five unit but they have overperformed expectations (18^th ranked by PFF), especially protecting the passer (8^th ranked in pass blocking efficiency). The problem with Pittsburgh’s offense is the scheme. The Steelers run on first down out of running formations, and they throw on passing downs out of passing formations. They use motion but it’s always pointless. Their WR route trees consist of go routes, slant routes, and curl routes. They rarely use screen passes or misdirection in the running game, and it would be mystical if Tomlin ever drew up a trick play. The offense’s biggest advantage is that they know where the ball is going, and the defense doesn’t, which is something Tomlin never tries to exploit. Expect the Steelers to attack with their usual uncreative, run-balanced style, with a “beat the man across from you” mentality that relies on people making plays rather than scheming players into space.

How Carolina Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Bears are down to dead last in defensive DVOA, ranking 31^st against the pass and 29^th against the run.
• The Eagles should have their way in whatever method they choose to attack here, with the obvious caveat that Philadelphia leads the league in first half scoring but they average just 10.5 points per game in the second half, which is largely a nod to their identity, situational play calling, and how dominant they have been to start games.
• Dallas Geodert was marked for return from IR on Wednesday, opening his 21-day practice window. Head coach Nick Sirianni and Goedert himself have been tight-lipped when it comes to the tight end’s expected gameday status.
• Quez Watkins was limited with the same shoulder injury he played through in Week 14.
• Chase Claypool appears as a ‘DNP’ for the Bears with a knee injury although it appears unlikely he will miss Week 15’s game.

How Philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The Eagles rank third in first half pace of play and first in first half scoring but rank 30^th in second half pace of play and 18^th in second half scoring this season. That doesn’t mean this team turns into a pumpkin at halftime, it’s a nod to how aggressive they are (or lack of aggression) when playing with a lead, and they have largely held a significant lead in the second half of games this year. The Eagles also rank first in net points per drive, second in net yards per drive, and second in points per drive, a further indication of the routine positive game environments they’ve found themselves in this season. The expected concentration of the offense depends greatly on whether or not Dallas Goedert returns from IR for Week 15, with no clear indication given from him or the team yet. As in, the best way to describe the Eagles is to compare them to the Jaguars, at least as far as the concentration of weekly volume is concerned. Basically, the Eagles are concentrated from the perspective that very few players see the field, but they lack concentration in the expectation of volume amongst those players.

Although Miles Sanders is the unquestioned lead back in this offense, his 60.8% snap rate ranks 17^th at the position and his 12.3 expected fantasy points per game ranks 24^th. That said, every primary member of this offense has a legitimate path to ceiling (as we’ve seen three times now from Sanders) due to their elite scoring ability. Sanders is also about as close to a yardage and touchdown back as can be, with only 1.8 targets per game. The pure rushing matchup yields a 4.68 net-adjusted line yard metric against a Chicago defense allowing a robust 27.7 DK points per game to opposing backfields. Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott both have roles in this offense and have found their way into the end zone on occasion, not to mention the fact that quarterback Jalen Hurts has scored 10 rushing touchdowns this year. Finally, as we saw last week, the ceiling from the majority of the Eagles is unlocked through their opposition keeping the game relatively close into the second half, bringing up some interesting stacking possibilities through optimal theory.

A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have been basically interchangeable from an underlying metrics standpoint, with Smith’s role shifting to a more short area usage in the absence of Goedert. That has translated to more consistent volume for Smith over the previous four weeks with eight or nine targets in each game during that span. With Goedert healthy, all of Smith, Goedert, and Brown’s targets have been all over the map. All three had been hovering around 20-25% target market share while Goedert was healthy, which is likely to return once Goedert returns. Quez Watkins would also likely lose some of the short area work he has been seeing in the absence of Goedert, transitioning back to a splash play, deep area role. As in, with Goedert back in the fold, expect no true alpha with three high end pass-catchers all working in conjunction. Add that discussion to the fact that these pass-catchers have had to do the majority of their heavy lifting in the first half, and we’re left with an immense ceiling with lower-than-perception floor for the individual pieces of the offense.

How Chicago Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Texans shocked some people with a close loss to the Cowboys last week, which will likely keep the Chiefs from overlooking them here.
• The Chiefs are the most aggressive team in the league in terms of passing and tempo and should have their way with a Texans defense that struggles in all areas.
• Expect Kansas City to keep their foot on the gas for a while after nearly blowing a 27-point lead to the Broncos in Week 14.
• Houston’s offense is now employing a tactic usually reserved for high school and low-level college teams by using multiple quarterbacks.

How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

The Chiefs can wrap up the AFC West crown with a win this week against the Texans, who are coincidentally the team with the worst record in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes continues to play at an MVP level despite a revolving door of skill players surrounding him, and he just torched the Broncos top-level pass defense to the tune of 352 passing yards and three touchdowns. Jerick McKinnon emerged as the top running back for the Chiefs at the end of last season and into the playoffs, and it appears he may be doing the same this year, as he played 57% of the offensive snaps in Week 14 en route to a highly productive day. The team has been playing without Mecole Hardman and Kadarius Toney lately, which led many to believe Skyy Moore would slip into the “gadget” wide receiver role and see heavier usage. Instead, it appears the Chiefs have decided to use more of their “traditional” wide receivers (Juju Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Justin Watson) and deploy McKinnon as a receiving back to handle those short-area targets and YAC opportunities.

As for the Chiefs approach to this game, they have the highest Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) in the NFL by a relatively large margin, and their current highest usage running back is a receiving game specialist. The Texans defense is poor in all areas, so the Chiefs can attack them however they would like, and the Chiefs like nothing more than letting Mahomes throw the ball around the yard. Lovie Smith’s defense notoriously works to prevent passes to the deep and perimeter areas of the field while blitzing at the 4th lowest rate in the league, which funnels things underneath and forces offenses to march down the field rather than taking chunk plays. The Chiefs offense is well equipped to attack that type of scheme, with Travis Kelce, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Jerick McKinnon all excelling in those underneath areas, and they will certainly have some things dialed up to attack up the seam as well.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Dallas narrowly escaped with a win last week against a lowly Texans team that they appeared to overlook and be ill-prepared for.
• Jacksonville appears to be turning a corner and Trevor Lawrence is starting to play like the star quarterback he was thought to be when he entered the league.
• The Dallas defense, particularly their secondary, is battling a plethora of injuries right now.
• The Cowboys offense continues to hum, scoring at least 27 points in all six games since Dak Prescott returned from injury.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

The Cowboys offense has been wildly efficient since Dak Prescott’s return from injury, scoring 27 or more points in every game and averaging 37.7 points during that stretch. While Dak’s presence has spurred this offensive explosion, the Cowboys offense works first and foremost through their dynamic duo of running backs. During that six game stretch, Dallas running backs have combined for touchdown counts of 3, 1, 4, 1, 4, and 3. Likewise, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard have combined for opportunity counts of 37, 36, 35, and 35 since Elliott’s return from injury in Week 11. Elliott works as more of a “grinder” and is the preferred short yardage back, while Pollard is kept fresh and used in a more explosive role and featured a bit more in the passing game, with three games of 5+ targets in his last six appearances. In the passing game, the Cowboys have been very efficient with the exception of last week’s multi-interception game from Dak Prescott. CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, and Dalton Schultz are all healthy and see the majority of the targets, with their limitations mainly coming from a lack of volume due to the Cowboys building large leads most weeks.

This week, Dallas travels to face a Jacksonville team with an emerging offense and a beatable defense. The Jaguars are a middling run defense and a bottom-5 pass defense by most metrics. The Cowboys are a very good team that has an identity, so it is unlikely they change that identity for a single week like this one, especially when it’s not like Jacksonville is unbeatable on the ground. However, there is a spiked possibility of big plays from the Cowboys as the Jaguars are likely to have to give extra attention to the running game if they want to slow them down. Derrick Henry was destroying this defense in the first half last week before the game script turned and the Jaguars took control of the game, forcing the Titans away from him. The Titans did not have the personnel to fire back and struggled when they became one-dimensional. However, the balanced nature of the Cowboys offense should make them very difficult for the Jaguars to slow down, and we should expect the Dallas offense to keep humming this week as they have been.

How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Another game with desperation on both sides – to be fair, the Lions have been in desperation mode for the better part of the past six weeks.
• The Jets fell out of the seventh playoff spot after sitting comfy for the first 12 weeks while the Lions have played themselves back into playoff contention by ripping off five wins in their last six games – the only loss coming by three points to the Bills.
• The dreaded illness tag is making its way through the Lions organization now, with Michael Brockers, Aidan Hutchinson, and Jason Cabinda held out of practice on Thursday due to the bug.
• Corey Davis has yet to practice this week while in the league’s concussion protocol – it appears as if he is headed for a missed contest here.
• One of the things to watch as the week draws to a close is the respective statuses of Quinnen Williams and Aidan Hutchinson, each of whom missed practice Thursday and are staples in the center of their respective defensive lines.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

The Lions have been more two-faced than any team this season, leading the league in scoring over the first month of play, falling from grace for the middle of the year, and then putting on an absolute clinic over the last six weeks (winning five of those games). Furthermore, they have averaged an absurd 31.2 points per game at Ford Field (leads the league) and a putrid 18.4 points per game on the road. For comparison, the Eagles now lead the league in points per game at 29.7 and the Titans rank 26^th in scoring at 18.5 points per game. Yea, the Lions are the Eagles (or Chiefs) at home and the Titans on the road. Wowzers. And, oh no, they play on the road this week – better bet the unders! Kidding… As opposed to thinking there’s something in the water up there in Detroit, might the poor numbers on the road be deflated by the goose egg they put up in Week 5 against the Patriots? Or maybe the six points they mustered the following week in Dallas? I’d think so, considering the Lions have played only five road games so far this year. They averaged a more than solid 28.67 points per game in their other three road games. So maybe, just maybe, those numbers are more matchup specific than they are home/road splits. Jared Goff has seen his pass attempts swing wildly this season but has averaged 39 per game over the previous three weeks in varying game environments, which plays a bit into the desperation narrative as the Lions appear to not be resting on their laurels, putting games away through aggression in the process.

The changing dynamics of the Detroit offense have not saved the backfield, which now operates in a somewhat maddening three-way, nearly even timeshare. No back has seen more than 51% of the offensive snaps over the previous three weeks, with all of Jamaal Williams, D’Andre Swift, and Justin Jackson playing at least 21% in each of those games. Williams operates as the primary early down and short yardage back, with Swift mixing in on early downs and sharing passing downs with Jackson, the latter of whom will also mix in change of pace snaps. It’s like a game of Twister, this backfield, I tell you what. And while I’ll continue with interest in Swift at his depressed price point even after he cost me a Milly sweat last week (do you even bias, bro?), the fact that he’s seen 31-36% snap rates in four of the previous five games has to give at least some level of concern. Those snap rates are particularly confusing when you consider that he was off the final injury report in the only game during that time that he saw more than 36% of the offensive snaps (51% in Week 13), but then came back down to 31% while off the injury report in Week 14. Shots shall be taken here, particularly considering the Jets have a stout run defense but utilize primary zone coverages that are susceptible to running backs through the air. The pure rushing matchup yields a perfectly average 4.39 net-adjusted line yards metric.

D.J. Chark continued his WR2 usage and snap rate against the Vikings last week, his second consecutive game above 84% of the offensive snaps. He went on to put up at least 94 yards and a touchdown in each of those games, operating as the primary downfield threat in this sneakily favorable pass offense. As we touched on above, the Lions have thrown caution to the wind over the previous three weeks, averaging 39 pass attempts per game during that span, and, more importantly, generating their own aggression (without waiting to react to the game environment – it’s almost as if the staff realized their defense is trash and they have to score points to win… weird). That leaves Amon-Ra St. Brown and Chark as the near every-down pass-catchers with Josh Reynolds relegated to a secondary role. Reynolds is the player whose snap rate and involvement is most closely tied to the amount of heavy sets the Lions choose to incorporate on a weekly basis, meaning he should see fluctuating snap rates between 60% and 80% for the remainder of the season, save another injury to a Detroit pass-catcher. The matchup through the air is #notgood, but that matters less in games of true desperation (as we have here). As in, expect the Lions to continue attacking relentlessly as they hunt to save their season, with two primary pass-catching options that can do quick damage in St. Brown and Chark. Finally, expect the three-man rotation at tight end to continue, with Brock Wright, James Mitchell, and Shane Zylstra likely combining for close to 100% of the offensive snaps (as in, the Lions aren’t utilizing much 12-personnel recently and instead getting their heavy personnel packages through the use of fullback Jason Cabinda).

How new york Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By HILOW>>

• The Falcons went into their bye week knowing they would be making the change from Marcus Mariota to Desmond Ridder, giving them a full two weeks to prepare their new quarterback for action.
• That said, the situation with Mariota has been a distraction as he reportedly just ghosted the team once he found out about his benching. He has since been placed on injured reserve.
• Neither of these teams has been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, which speaks to the state of the NFC South – that said, both need a win this week to keep that pipedream alive… desperation factor, engaged.
• Chris Olave and Drake London have been nothing short of remarkable in their rookie seasons, largely limited by the design of their respective offenses (and maybe some quarterback play thrown in there).

How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::

While we know how the Falcons have tried to win this season (second lowest pass rate, second lowest pass rate over expectation, and below average pass rate over expectation in every game played this season), we have some uncertainties introduced through the change at quarterback. Rookie third-round quarterback Desmond Ridder will be making the first start of his career, which basically comes in a “win or go home” game for the Falcons. And while their offensive tendencies are highly unlikely to flip on their heads, we at least have to acknowledge that there could be some surprises here. Ridder has some rushing upside to his fantasy profile as well, having rushed for 957 yards and 12 touchdowns over his final two years at Cincinnati. That said, his mobility is more escapability when compared to the more elite rushing upside of Jalen Hurts or Justin Fields. While Ridder’s pocket presence was a plus at the collegiate level, that tends to be one of the areas that takes rookie quarterbacks longer to adjust to, as the speed at the NFL level is a different animal altogether. Finally, Ridder lacks the top-level arm strength to make some tight window throws and his downfield ability sometimes suffers. Considering everything laid out, I would expect an offense designed to minimize mistakes and ease Ridder into the fold, with heavy rush rates, designed short area throws based on timing, and an effort to keep from getting behind the sticks.

Lead back Cordarrelle Patterson missed four games in the middle of the season, returning for Week 9. Since that time, he has played more than 49% of the offensive snaps just once, peaking at 58% in Week 12 (for comparison, he played 59-65% in his three fully healthy games to start the year). What we’ve seen since his return is a two-headed backfield that works in conjunction with fullback Keith Smith, with Tyler Allgeier matching or beating Patterson in snap rate (as has been the case in all but one game since Patterson’s return). Patterson has been between 11 and 16 running back opportunities in four of five games back, with Allgeier seeing nine to 11 opportunities in each contest. Mariota typically only carried the ball five to seven times, meaning Patterson and Allgeier could see a slight decrease in workload with the more mobile Ridder at quarterback. Realistically, the range of work we’ve seen from the duo over the previous five games is likely to remain rather static moving forward, with Ridder potentially taking on slightly more rushing work than Mariota did while starting. The matchup on the ground yields a well above average 4.655 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Saints defense ceding 4.46 yards per carry and 22.1 DK points per game to opposing backfields. Of note, the Saints don’t blitz a lot (16.6%) but play some of the highest rates of man coverage in the league, which has made them susceptible to mobile quarterbacks.

Rookie wide receiver Drake London ranks eighth in targets per route run rate, 10^th in team target market share, and first in average cushion (a measure of how far off a defender is playing the pass-catcher). Due to the nature of the Falcons offense, opposing teams have utilized zone coverages against Atlanta at the highest rate in the league (like a stupid-high 83.1% of the time) – which is important considering London currently holds PFF’s 12th-highest grade against zone coverage this season amongst wide receivers with 10 or more targets. The only thing holding this dude back is an offense that has averaged a paltry 23.1 pass attempts per game this season. London is joined by veteran role wide receiver Olamide Zaccheaus as the only pass-catchers to play nearly every offensive snap on this offense, with Damiere Byrd the preferred WR3 and tight end snaps split amongst Parker Hesse, MyCole Pruitt, and Anthony Firkser since Kyle Pitts was shut down for the season. Zaccheaus has one game all season over five targets while no Atlanta tight end has seen more than three targets without Pitts. As in, this pass offense is a case of “London or bust.”

How New Orleans Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Arizona will be starting backup quarterback, Colt McCoy, while Denver could also be relying on their backup, Brett Rypien.
• Both teams are out of the playoff hunt with nothing but pride left to play for.
• Denver’s defense has been stout this season, especially against non-elite opponents.
• Arizona is playing on a short week after losing on Monday night to the Patriots.

How Arizona Will Try To Win ::

The Cardinals will start Colt McCoy at quarterback after losing star QB Kyler Murray to a torn ACL on Monday night against the Patriots. McCoy has started two games already this season, beating the Rams and getting dominated by the 49ers. This week, he will get the task of facing a Broncos defense that has held their opponent under 20 points in 9 of 13 games. The Cardinals offense is also without Zach Ertz and Rondale Moore, who are both on IR. DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown, and James Conner are left as the headliners for Arizona at the skill positions, and we can expect most of the offense to flow through these three. James Conner has been used as a bellcow recently and we can expect a similar approach this week as the Cardinals are on the road against one of the top three pass defenses in the league that is much more beatable on the ground. When the Cardinals do turn to the air, we can expect Hopkins and Brown to be heavily featured. In McCoy’s first two starts, Marquise Brown was out but Hopkins + Moore combined for 19 receptions in the first game, while Hopkins + Greg Dortch combined for 18 receptions in the second game. Brown is a full-time player and I would expect him and Hopkins to be targeted a large percentage of the time that Arizona does take to the air. Again, the Broncos defense is much more beatable on the ground, and their offense has struggled all season, regardless of the quarterback, making it likely that Arizona plays things close to the vest against a tough opponent on the road for as long as they can.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• This game is highlighted by the matchup of head coaches, with Bill Belichick facing long-time Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.
• The Patriots are currently the No. 7 seed in the AFC playoff picture while the Raiders have squandered their postseason hopes by blowing winnable games.
• New England’s offense relies heavily on its backfield, which is currently riddled with injuries. 
• The Raiders may be getting back one or both of Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow from injured reserve this week.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

The Patriots are currently in the thick of the AFC Wild Card hunt with a 7-6 record despite a very turbulent season, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. The Patriots are built to win on the back of their defense, which Football Outsiders ranks as the No. 3 DVOA defense in the NFL, while hoping their 25th ranked offense just doesn’t screw it up. As the Patriots offense has looked underwhelming and overmatched this year, many people have tried to figure out where the blame lies. They have an offensive coordinator who had been a defensive coach for the last 15 years prior to 2022, Mac Jones has looked lost often, and Bill Belichick has not exactly loaded this team up with talent at the skill positions. The truth is that all of those issues contribute to their struggles, though the play calling and scheme are the things that are probably most easily addressed at this point in the season.

Luckily for the Patriots, this week they face a Raiders defense that ranks 31st in the NFL through 14 weeks by Football Outsiders DVOA. Last week, the Raiders blew a two-score lead late in the fourth quarter against an even worse offense than New England’s (the Rams) who had a quarterback that had joined the team two days before the game. The Patriots offense has had its share of struggles this year, but they have shown the ability to put up points against poor defenses. Consider the fact that the Patriots have played six games against defenses currently ranked in the bottom-10 in the NFL in defensive DVOA. In those six games, the Patriots are averaging 26.3 points per game. In their other seven games, they are averaging 16.9 points per game. Those two numbers are the equivalent of the sixth and 29th ranked scoring offenses in the league. In short, the Patriots are a good offense when facing bad defenses and a bad offense against good defenses. The Patriots offense generally focuses on their running backs and short area passing, but Bill Belichick is notorious for game plans that attack opponents weaknesses. Just a couple of weeks ago on Thanksgiving, Mac Jones set a season high in pass attempts as the Patriots had a 75% pass rate against a Vikings defense that profiles very similarly to the Raiders (middle of the pack against the run while being awful against the pass). Both of the top two running backs for the Patriots are battling injuries, as Rhamondre Stevenson is looking unlikely to play and Damien Harris is slowly coming back from a thigh issue, which increases the likelihood that the Patriots will employ a similar game plan to the one they took to Minnesota when they nearly beat a very good Vikings team. 

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

mike johnson >>

• The Patriots run their offense primarily through their running backs and their running back situation is pretty messy this week.
  • Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are both listed as questionable and it seems likely that at least one, if not both, will play.
  • Kevin Harris and Pierre Strong, Jr. both played well on Monday night, making things even harder to decipher.
  • I love Rhamondre Stevenson as much as the next guy, but even with how great Stevenson has been, he hasn’t scored over 25 Draftkings points all season. I have a hard time believing he will do that for the first time on a short week with a lower body injury while having only one practice under his belt.
  • If Stevenson is out but Harris plays, he becomes a pretty interesting play as someone Belichick trusts in a plus matchup. Harris has multi-touchdown upside and should be relatively low owned coming back from injury.
  • If Stevenson and Damien Harris are both out, then Strong and Kevin Harris become very interesting at bargain basement prices.
  • The late start for this game gives us the opportunity to gain some leverage on the uncertainty around this situation if we are prepared to do so.
• Mac Jones has been far from impressive this season, but went for over 5x his Week 15 salary in the Vikings game referenced earlier. He makes a ton of sense as a player with a very high price considered ceiling that opens up the rest of your roster. Jones stacks (single or double) should be squarely in DFS tournament consideration.
• As touched on in this game’s breakdown, the Patriots offense is as likely to air it out this week as they will ever be. Devante Parker and Jakobi Meyers are both likely to be out, leaving the Patriots offense full of cheap players who are likely to see volume in a plus matchup. All of Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Tyquan Thornton, and Hunter Henry are priced at $3,400 or less on Draftkings and have a high likelihood of seeing 5+ targets.

• On the Raiders side, this is not a week I will be chasing the production Josh Jacobs has had this season in a tough matchup against a very good opponent – especially as his injuries continue to mount under his insane workload.
• Davante Adams is an interesting case study this week as he has torched man coverage but runs a risk of being schemed away in this unique situation. If Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow do not play, my interest in Adams dwindles as I see more likelihood that the Patriots sell out enough to limit his upside. Adams is not a priority piece for me but also not one I will be completely writing off as I will certainly take chances on his upside in lineups that make sense (like opposite NE stacks).
• If Waller and Renfrow sit, Foster Moreau and Mack Hollins are very interesting to me as potential beneficiaries from a New England game plan hell bent on taking away Adams and the running game.

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Both offenses should be licking their chops entering this week, as the opposing defense’s clear weakness is in their preferred method of attack.
• The Titans are reeling as they have lost three straight games, the last two of which have been by 2+ touchdowns.
• The Chargers have not won consecutive games since Weeks 4-6 and last week’s win over the Dolphins was their first over a team that currently has a winning record.
• These teams could not possibly be more different in terms of offensive approach and philosophy.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

The Titans appeared to be strolling through their season to another easy AFC South crown and high playoff seed until the wheels came off over the last three weeks. Now sitting at 7-6, the Titans have opened the door for the Jaguars (who they play one more time) and will almost certainly end up as the bottom seed of the division winners if they are able to hold on. The biggest issue for the Titans during this down stretch has been their pass defense, which was absolutely shredded by Jalen Hurts and Trevor Lawrence the last two weeks. Likewise, the Titans prefer a run-heavy approach, and their personnel needs positive game scripts to be effective, so their struggling defense has made it nearly impossible for them to control games lately.

Luckily for the Titans, their offense has the perfect matchup this week. The Chargers defense is ranked 32nd in the NFL in yards per carry allowed to opposing running backs and 28th in the NFL in PFF tackling grade. The Titans will almost certainly look to lean heavily on Derrick Henry in this matchup and pummel the Chargers on the ground. The emergence of rookie tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo should also increase the amount of two tight end personnel the Titans deploy early in this game as they look to get their best players on the field and use heavy packages to attack the Chargers weakness. Henry was on track for a monster game last week before the game script got away from the Titans, and he only received a few second-half carries. Henry had a 200-yard game on the ground earlier this season against the Texans run defense that is similarly inept to the Chargers, and we should expect the Titans coaching staff to give him every chance to do something similar this week.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Bengals passing game has a tough on-paper matchup that gets even tougher depending on injury situations.
• The Bucs defense has only allowed three teams this season to surpass Cincinnati’s implied team total for this week.
• Tom Brady has thrown 40+ passes in ten of his last eleven games.
• The Bengals defense has been “solid, but not outstanding” against both the run and the pass, making them a neutral matchup for opposing offenses to pick their poison against.

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals are tied for the AFC North division lead with the Ravens as the season enters the home stretch. Cincinnati has a tough path ahead, as all four of their remaining opponents would be in the playoffs if they started today. The Bengals are also facing some health issues that could cause some issues during this tough stretch, as three of their top four receiving options – Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Hayden Hurst – are all battling some ailments that put their availability and effectiveness in question. The Bengals started this season slowly, with a 4-4 record through Week 8, but have rattled off five straight victories (7-1 in their last eight) and appear to be comfortably on their way to a playoff berth if they can overcome their mounting injuries and win even a game or two down the stretch. The Bengals did get Joe Mixon back from his concussion last week, and their backfield operated in a 60/40 timeshare, with Samaje Perine taking most of the 3rd down work and mixing in for many other situations as well.

As you would expect, the status of so many key elements of the offense will likely have a big impact on how the Bengals approach this game. Hurst sounds unlikely to play this week, while Boyd and Higgins are “day to day” with finger and hamstring injuries, respectively. Boyd’s injury sounds like a pain tolerance and effectiveness issue – can he catch the ball the way he needs to while recovering? Meanwhile, Higgins had a hamstring injury he was dealing with all last week that he aggravated in pregame warmups. That type of injury can tend to linger and even get worse if you don’t let it have proper rest. My early hunch is Boyd will play, and Higgins will sit as the Bengals will want to make sure they have Higgins down the stretch and into the playoffs. The Bengals have the third-highest Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) in the NFL, and against a stout Bucs defense, they will have to be creative if shorthanded. Given the effectiveness and skillsets of their running back duo (both are strong in the receiving game), it would make sense for them to get both backs more involved in the passing game and funnel things through that part of their offense while their receiving corps is less than full strength. Ja’Marr Chase will obviously get a healthy dose of targets, but facing a very strong pass defense, the Bengals will likely try to leverage their running back talent/depth in this matchup.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football looks like a bit of a snoozefest with the Giants visiting the Commanders for a 40.5 total game in which Washington is favored by 4.5. Both teams are 7-5-1, having played to a tie the last time they met in Week 13 (why are we watching this matchup again so soon!?). Both teams also have winning records with negative point differentials. Both teams have bad offenses . . . should be fun. 

Washington

On the Commanders side, the timeshare between Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson continues. Both are likely to play right around 50% of the snaps, with Robinson the 2-down grinder and Gibson being used more as a passing down back. Of late, that has resulted in 15+ opportunities regularly for Robinson, albeit with a high of just three targets. Gibson’s role has been much smaller in the run game, with something like 8-12 carries as his most likely range, with 3-4 targets on top. The matchup here doesn’t scare us against a Giants defense that is 31st in run defense, and we know Washington is likely to be very run-heavy as long as they’re allowed to be, so we should expect a heavy dose of the running game in the most likely game scripts. The run game has been inefficient, with both backs averaging under 4 yards per carry, which combined with the split workload, means the likelihood of either getting to 100+ rushing yards and the bonus is pretty modest. They’re likely going to need touchdowns to pay off here. I say that just to note that they’re probably going to be very highly owned as large home favorites in a good matchup, and while they’re strong plays, touchdowns are highly variant so they’re certainly fadeable (unlike, say, Rhamondre Stevenson on Monday, when the only realistic path to a sub-10 DK point score was an injury). 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, Taylor Heinicke has been something of a placeholder for the Commanders. He’s only scored over 20 DK points once in his seven starts, and so while quarterbacks by virtue of their position come with strong floors in Showdown, at $10k, he is not necessarily a lock in cash. Watch ownership here, though. Sometimes, we see a “poor” QB come in shockingly low in tournaments, and if that looks to be the case for Heinicke, I’d want to be overweight on the field on him and the Washington passing game in general. The wide receiver corps will be led by Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Jahan Dotson, with Dyami Brown and perhaps Cam Sims mixing in occasionally. The matchup here is also not worrisome with the Giants 26th in pass defense DVOA, but note that Heinicke has been held to 33 or fewer pass attempts in all but one of his starts. He has, however, really focused on McLaurin with 6+ targets in all of Heinicke’s games and 8+ in five of the seven. In a good matchup, as a talented receiver who we can safely project for strong volume, McLaurin looks like a great play (contending for the top skill position play on the slate, certainly). Samuel, on the other hand, after starting the season off being bombarded with targets and getting a fair bit of rushing work as well, has seen four or fewer targets in five of Heinicke’s seven starts. Less volume plus a modest depth of target makes Samuel more of a floor than a ceiling play, though his price has adjusted down to $6,600 in response. He’s a fair play, not someone I am personally trying to jam in lineups, but his modest salary will result in people landing on him naturally. Dotson has been more up and down – since he came back in Week 10, he has games of 1, 2, 1, and 9 targets. One of these things is not like the others . . . . the 9 target game is also the most recent game, in which he played the most snaps of any game since returning from injury. It was also against these same Giants! Is his role growing? Well, rookies normally do see their roles grow as the season goes on, and he’s now several weeks removed from injury and playing more snaps; while nine targets is a stretch (it also came in a game in which Heinicke attempted a season-high 41 passes), something like 4-6 seems like a reasonable range. Brown and Sims are just MME punt options. Tight end is led by Logan Thomas and John Bates in a timeshare, with Cole Turner playing a lesser TE3 role. Thomas is highly likely to see more receiving work, and since he returned from injury in Week 8 (also the week Heinicke took over at QB), Thomas has 21 targets against just eight for Bates. At similar prices, I prefer what I believe is greater upside from Dotson (LT3 is more of a “catch and fall down” kind of guy with little yardage ability), while at the cheap end, Bates is a better punt option in my opinion than Brown/Sims at WR. Cole Turner has nine targets on the year and can be included in MME pools as a “hope he gets a touchdown” option. 

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 15 draws to a close with the Rams visiting the Packers for a 39.5 total game with Green Bay favored by 7, leaving the poor Rams implied for just 16.25 points (for those keeping track at home, that’s the lowest of any team in Week 15). We also have some modest weather issues here with expected temperatures in the 10-20 degree range, and while temperature doesn’t have a significant impact on scoring, it does affect things when it gets down this low (call it a slight bump down, maybe just a few percent). Fun times. 

Green Bay

On the Packers side, we have significant home favorites (good!) facing the 5th ranked run defense by DVOA (eww!). But, the Rams have been slipping of late due to a combination of injuries and an inability to keep their defense off the field, and they’ve given up two 400+ total yard performances recently (to the Chiefs and Seahawks) with 165 and 117 coming on the ground (to the Raiders and Chiefs). This is not a perfect matchup by any means, but it’s a bit less imposing than the season-long DVOA implies. The problem, of course, is that the Packers backfield is frustrating as hell. Aaron Jones has been the 1A to AJ Dillon’s 1B all season, but the workload splits have varied significantly from game to game. As a large home favorite running back who also gets passing game work, I want to play Jones, but he’s only had more than 16 carries twice this season and he’s averaging 12.6 carries and 4.5 targets per game. He’s also priced at $11.2k which is like a bell cow, basically, but he isn’t one. Of course, you have to spend salary somewhere on this slate and there are only three players over $8,800 so he seems fine when viewed through that lens. Just recognize that we’re likely to see a lot of Jones captain lineups, and they’re likely to look somewhat similar, so if you go this route make sure you’re being thoughtful about how to differentiate from the field. Behind Jones, Dillon’s workload has been wildly variant. He had 21 opportunities last week when Jones missed some time due to injury, but in the weeks prior to that, he saw 12, 7, 13, and 15 opportunities. Dillon has had six targets in a game twice this season, but one or fewer targets in another five games. Yeesh. At $6,200, the price is great, and he’s a strong value option, but at least to me, he feels like a tourney-only play. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, the Packers will trot out Allen Lazard and Christian Watson as their primary perimeter receivers, and then it gets muddled. Cobb has been playing about half the snaps in a slot role, but Romeo Doubs is back. Doubs is certain to have a smaller role than he had earlier in the season with the Packers healthier now and Watson smashing, but it’s unclear how this will play out. Sammy Watkins and/or Samori Touri may still get a few rotational snaps here and there, or Doubs may eat up all of those. All three of those guys go into the tourney punt play bucket for me, while Cobb stays just barely out of that bucket (as in, he’s a tourney-only play and I wouldn’t play Cobb in cash, but I think his role and the trust Rodgers has in him makes him better than a pure punt option). As for the main two receivers, Watson really came on in Week 10 with a 4/107/3 game and has put up 21.1 or more Draftkings points in every game since. In those four games, he has 27 targets, 15 catches . . . and 7 receiving touchdowns (plus a rushing touchdown for good measure!). So, he’s getting a touchdown about every other catch. Probably not sustainable, but he’s clearly explosive (a 46 yard rush, a 58 yard catch, and a 63 yard catch in those four games) and he’s clearly trusted by Rodgers for both big plays and in the red zone. Lazard only has 24 targets in that time with zero touchdowns. I think I can safely say I was wrong the last time I wrote up the Packers when I said I thought Watson and Lazard were pretty equivalent; their volume is pretty close but Watson has more per-touch upside and more touchdown equity. At tight end, the Packers are splitting snaps between Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis, with a bit of Josiah Deguara and Tyler Davis mixing in. Tonyan’s the primary receiving option here but since Watson’s shown up, he only has 10 targets in four games, so he’s basically a touchdown-or-bust tourney option. The other tight ends all get thrown into the MME punt pool.