Eagles (

28.25) at
Bears (

19.75)

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Bears are down to dead last in defensive DVOA, ranking 31^st against the pass and 29^th against the run.
• The Eagles should have their way in whatever method they choose to attack here, with the obvious caveat that Philadelphia leads the league in first half scoring but they average just 10.5 points per game in the second half, which is largely a nod to their identity, situational play calling, and how dominant they have been to start games.
• Dallas Geodert was marked for return from IR on Wednesday, opening his 21-day practice window. Head coach Nick Sirianni and Goedert himself have been tight-lipped when it comes to the tight end’s expected gameday status.
• Quez Watkins was limited with the same shoulder injury he played through in Week 14.
• Chase Claypool appears as a ‘DNP’ for the Bears with a knee injury although it appears unlikely he will miss Week 15’s game.

How Philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The Eagles rank third in first half pace of play and first in first half scoring but rank 30^th in second half pace of play and 18^th in second half scoring this season. That doesn’t mean this team turns into a pumpkin at halftime, it’s a nod to how aggressive they are (or lack of aggression) when playing with a lead, and they have largely held a significant lead in the second half of games this year. The Eagles also rank first in net points per drive, second in net yards per drive, and second in points per drive, a further indication of the routine positive game environments they’ve found themselves in this season. The expected concentration of the offense depends greatly on whether or not Dallas Goedert returns from IR for Week 15, with no clear indication given from him or the team yet. As in, the best way to describe the Eagles is to compare them to the Jaguars, at least as far as the concentration of weekly volume is concerned. Basically, the Eagles are concentrated from the perspective that very few players see the field, but they lack concentration in the expectation of volume amongst those players.

Although Miles Sanders is the unquestioned lead back in this offense, his 60.8% snap rate ranks 17^th at the position and his 12.3 expected fantasy points per game ranks 24^th. That said, every primary member of this offense has a legitimate path to ceiling (as we’ve seen three times now from Sanders) due to their elite scoring ability. Sanders is also about as close to a yardage and touchdown back as can be, with only 1.8 targets per game. The pure rushing matchup yields a 4.68 net-adjusted line yard metric against a Chicago defense allowing a robust 27.7 DK points per game to opposing backfields. Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott both have roles in this offense and have found their way into the end zone on occasion, not to mention the fact that quarterback Jalen Hurts has scored 10 rushing touchdowns this year. Finally, as we saw last week, the ceiling from the majority of the Eagles is unlocked through their opposition keeping the game relatively close into the second half, bringing up some interesting stacking possibilities through optimal theory.

A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have been basically interchangeable from an underlying metrics standpoint, with Smith’s role shifting to a more short area usage in the absence of Goedert. That has translated to more consistent volume for Smith over the previous four weeks with eight or nine targets in each game during that span. With Goedert healthy, all of Smith, Goedert, and Brown’s targets have been all over the map. All three had been hovering around 20-25% target market share while Goedert was healthy, which is likely to return once Goedert returns. Quez Watkins would also likely lose some of the short area work he has been seeing in the absence of Goedert, transitioning back to a splash play, deep area role. As in, with Goedert back in the fold, expect no true alpha with three high end pass-catchers all working in conjunction. Add that discussion to the fact that these pass-catchers have had to do the majority of their heavy lifting in the first half, and we’re left with an immense ceiling with lower-than-perception floor for the individual pieces of the offense.

How Chicago Will Try To Win ::