This week’s slate is about as different from last week’s as could be ::
Out of 13 games on the Main Slate this week, there are six with an Over/ Under of 47.0 or higher, and there are nine with an Over/Under of 45.5 or higher. Furthermore, there is only one game above 48.0 at this point in the week (Texans at Titans; 50.0), which gives us an extremely dense group of quality games to work with — creating an opportunity to target plenty of upside without necessarily having to follow the crowd. Finally, there are multiple injuries this week that have potential to tighten up the distribution of touches in key spots — leaving the remaining players on those teams fundamentally underpriced. Add it all together, and it’s a fun slate to play around with, with upside available in lots of different ways.
While this makes for a fun slate, it also makes for a slate in which the score required to win a tourney is likely to be even higher than what we have seen in this stretch of mostly-ugly slates over the last month. Players who “can post a decent score for the price” are unlikely to help much in a quest to win tourneys, while finding the right game or the right set of Upside plays will go a long way toward determining how this weekend shakes out.
As you build this week, keep First Place in mind, and be sure to ask yourself what type of players are likely to actually take you there this week.