CHARGERS // CHIEFS OVERVIEW

Writing up this game early in the week is a challenge…but it’s not nearly as much of a challenge as it will be for these teams to play in this game. Put simply: the NFL screwed up. No way should two teams fighting for a division title be forced to play each other in Week 15 on short rest. It’s irresponsible and bad for the league — and it’s bad for these teams, as the Chiefs are likely to still be without Sammy Watkins, while Tyreek Hill will be gutting out a foot injury of his own; and the Chargers now appear likely to be missing both Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler. Ekeler is dealing with a stinger in his neck and is also in concussion protocol, making it massively unlikely that he gets cleared in time for Thursday night. Gordon has not seemed close to returning the last two weeks and is currently being viewed as doubtful. If the Chiefs win this game, they will have home field advantage in the AFC playoffs practically locked up. If the Chargers win this game, they will have a shot at grabbing home field advantage themselves. While the players on the field will have to execute, a lot of this game will come down to coaching, and to which team can better utilize their available players. This game opened at an Over/Under of 56.5 and was rapidly bet down to 53.0. With this game being played at Arrowhead, the Chiefs have been installed as slim 3.5 point favorites.

CHARGERS OFFENSE

The run game is the foundation of this Chargers offense, and there is a case to be made that they will try to control this game on the ground for as long as they can, with their top five rushing offense taking on a Chiefs defense that ranks dead last in DVOA against the run while allowing an electrifying 5.1 yards per carry (31st in the NFL). With the threat of Keenan Allen underneath and Mike/Tyrell Williams deep, the Chargers have been able to design one of the most effective running back roles in the NFL, and Justin Jackson — who failed in Week 14, but looked excellent in Weeks 12 and 13 (averaging 8.1 and 7.9 yards per carry on limited touches, showing a nice patience/burst combo behind the Chargers’ strong blocking) — should be able to succeed in this spot. Of course, there is also a case to be made that either A) the Chiefs jump out to a big, early lead and force the Chargers to get aggressive through the air, or B) the Chargers put the ball into the hands of Philip Rivers without his top two backs and let him win the game for them. On the season, the Chargers rank fifth in the NFL in points per game while ranking 32nd in pace of play and 22nd in pass play rate — leading to the seventh fewest pass attempts in the league, and to only four games all year with more than 30 pass attempts for Rivers. (One of those four games came in Week 1 against Kansas City, when Rivers threw 51 times.) In deciding how you want to build rosters for this game, you should first decide how you think the Chargers will attack. (I’ll wait until the Interpretation section below to pop in my thoughts.)

Regardless of how the Chargers attack, Jackson projects to be involved, with the Chargers averaging 25.3 rush attempts per game and involving running backs in the pass game all year, both as outlets and in the screen game. Behind Jackson, Detrez Newsome should fill the change-of-pace role that Jackson filled the last two weeks and that Ekeler filled all season before that. Last week, Ekeler played 39 snaps and Jackson played 21 — with a similar distribution likely in line this week. The lead role in this offense has typically produced 18 to 22 touches, while the backup role has yielded anywhere from six to 10 touches most weeks.

NOTE: Gordon traveled with the team and now has a chance to play. It should go without saying: he becomes a strong option if healthy and playing most of the snaps. Keep a close eye on news leading up to this game to see which guy is expected to lead this backfield.

The engine of the pass game has been Allen, who has an interesting matchup against a Chiefs defense that has been a factory for big plays (no team in the league has allowed more pass plays of 20+ yards), but that shaves 2.5% off the league-average catch rate and has been solid against slot-dominant receivers, with Kendall Fuller playing above-average defense (7.5 yards per pass attempt allowed into his coverage; only two touchdowns allowed all year). Recent, notable stat lines from slot-dominant receivers against the Chiefs:

:: Willie Snead — 5-61-0
:: Larry Fitzgerald — 6-50-0
:: Jarvis Landry — 6-50-0
:: Emmanuel Sanders — 4-57-0
:: Tyler Boyd — 3-27-0
:: Julian Edelman — 4-54-0
:: Dede Westbrook — 3-55-0
:: Emmanuel Sanders — 5-45-0

The last two slot-dominant players to top 61 yards against the Chiefs were JuJu Smith-Schuster in Week 2 (13-121-1 on 19 targets) and this game’s very own Keenan Allen in Week 1 (8-108-1 on 11 targets). Allen should get enough work to win in this matchup, and he has the after-catch upside to pop off for a big play or two, but the matchup should obviously be noted. As always: volume will likely be key for Allen to produce.

Downfield work in this offense is functioning on a rotational basis, with Travis Benjamin seeing 20 snaps and one target last week, Mike Williams seeing 29 snaps and six targets last week (10 targets across his previous four games), and Tyrell Williams seeing 48 snaps and three targets last week (he has only one game north of 23 yards since Week 7). Mike is the likeliest bet for touchdowns (seven on the season, with nine red zone targets to four for Tyrell and one for Benjamin), while Tyrell is best bet for a long play or two. Benjamin is a “bet on outlier production” play.

The tight ends remain sparsely involved in this offense and will likely need a touchdown or two in order to produce.

CHIEFS PASS OFFENSE

The Chargers have been strong against the pass — forcing the third shallowest aDOT and knocking 2% off the league-average catch rate — but this pass defense is not in the same class as the Ravens squad that Patrick Mahomes beat last week for 377 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Mahomes has been one of the most predictable fantasy plays all season, and barring a set of short-week sloppiness or an in-game setback for Tyreek Hill, he should be able to produce at expectations in this spot. With Mahomes throwing 91 passes across the last two weeks (without Kareem Hunt or Sammy Watkins), target counts among primary pass catchers on the Chiefs have looked like this:

:: Hill — 20
:: Travis Kelce — 22
:: Chris Conley — 10
:: Demarcus Robinson — 8
:: Demetrius Harris — 9

Hill and Kelce are the clear alphas in this attack, with this offense designed around the strains they place on a defense.

Only eight teams have allowed fewer yards to tight ends than the Chargers, with rookie superstar Derwin James keying strong coverage against the position — though Kelce has a dominant enough skill set and role to win against the toughest of matchups. If Kelce sees his eight to 12 targets this week, the production should be able to land within the expected range.

Hill’s foot is likelier to hold him back than is the matchup, as Casey Hayward has struggled to contain Hill the last two years — with the Chiefs’ star receiver posting lines against the Chargers last year (with Alex Smith) of 5-77-1 and 5-88-1, followed by a 7-169-2 line in Week 1 with Mahomes. Hill’s foot appears to be an issue of pain management, which should allow the Chiefs to take steps to ensure Hill is his fully effective self when on the field. The Chargers have been dominant defending the short areas of the field while struggling at times downfield.

Conley continues to occupy a possession-receiver role in an offense that prefers to go downfield. He has target counts across his last four games (without Watkins) of 2 // 8 // 7 // 3, with a 13-134-3 line in this stretch. The touchdowns are important for Conley to produce value. Robinson has target counts without Watkins of 4 // 2 // 1 // 7, going 10-124-0 in this stretch. He’s the likelier bet for a big play, but Conley is the likelier bet for volume-based production.

Demetrius Harris wraps up this attack, with target counts of six and three since Hunt was booted from the team. He’s a dart throw with a slim shot at production.

CHIEFS RUN OFFENSE

NOTE: Ware is now doubtful for this game, which should slide Williams into at least a 60% or 70% role in this offense. His touch floor is high, in a powerful offense, at a discounted price — making him a solid all-around play.

The Chargers have been a middling run defense on the year, ranking 13th in yards allowed per carry and 20th in opponent pass play rate. The Chiefs continue to involve running backs as a secondary concern behind their Mahomes-led passing attack, with Spencer Ware seeing touch counts of 15 and 20 since the departure of Kareem Hunt (the 20 touches came last week with the Chiefs running an outlandish 86 plays), and with Damien Williams seeing touch counts of seven and 12. Even with touches tilting toward Ware, it is worth noting that Ware played 41 snaps last week to 43 for Williams (in Week 13, Ware played 49 snaps to 19 for Williams). This was likely a one-game outlier based on game plan (with Williams the better pass blocker, vs the Ravens’ aggressive front), but if this deployment holds against the Chargers’ strong pass rush, Williams will have an outside shot at winning the production battle. Ware had seven more carries than Williams last week, while Williams ran eight more pass routes.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I expect the Chargers to lean toward a balanced approach for much of the game, as they are able to pick up chunk plays on the ground and generate points on pace with the Chiefs without having to turn pass-heavy. It’s important to remember that this team ranks fifth in points per game without having to lean on the pass — and unless the Chiefs take a quick, two-touchdown lead, I don’t expect the Chargers to open things up with a pass-heavy game early on. As the first half winds down, however, and especially as this game reaches the fourth quarter, it seems likely that the Chargers turn to the pass a bit more, in the same way the run-heavy Texans did last week in their game against the Colts. This could easily lead to 35 to 38 pass attempts for Rivers. His 51 attempts from Week 1 look out of reach to me (unless — as was the case in that game — the Chiefs’ offense comes screaming out of the gates), but I do think it’s likely we see more than the 30 attempts at which Rivers is typically capped. To simplify that: I’m not adjusting projections too much myself, but I do think we see enough volume for this passing attack to matter. Obviously, there are different ways this game flow could play out, so think through your opinion when piecing things together yourself.

Regardless of game flow, Jackson sets up as a quality piece — with solid usage in a good matchup — while Newsome is a non-zero play with upside if he scores, breaks off a big play, or sees an unexpected spike in usage. I’ll be keeping expectations somewhat in check on Allen (a range of 7-80-0 to 9-115-0 seems the most comfortable — with upside rising if he finds the end zone once or twice); though with a narrow distribution of guaranteed work on both sides of this game, Allen still stands out as one of the better plays on the Showdown. The other Chargers’ pass catchers are upside dart throws. Rivers could easily top 270 yards and pop in two or three touchdowns if he throws 30 to 35 times.

Ware is the favorite to lead the Chiefs’ backfield in touches, and while he ranks behind Jackson in projected production, it’s not exactly a landslide, putting Ware in play for his probable 15- to 18-touch role. Williams may see another rise in snaps vs the Chargers’ stout pass rush, which could again lead to a productive day — though this play is more speculative than Ware/Jackson, putting Williams alongside (or possibly a half-step behind) Newsome in usage projections. The likeliest order for production is Jackson // Ware // Newsome // Williams — but on the small sample size of a one-game slate, it’s worth betting on some variable outcomes if multi-entering.

The highest-upside plays on the slate are (in order) Mahomes // Hill // Kelce. All three of these guys have shown true slate-breaking upside this year, with Mahomes and Hill reaching top-of-the-slate status most often (and with Mahomes obviously carrying the higher floor between he and Hill). Behind these guys, Conley, Harris, and Robinson are dart throws.

Both kickers are obviously in play here.

A bet on these defenses is a bet on a DST touchdown against two strong offenses that are likely to put up points.

TEXANS // JETS OVERVIEW

Had the Texans pulled out a win last week at home against the Colts, they would be in the driver’s seat for a first round bye in the AFC playoffs. This Saturday, they will be traveling to take on a Jets team that is a few lucky breaks away from snagging the number one overall pick. Ouch.

This does not set up as an entertaining game from a viewership perspective, but I do expect the two-game slate on Saturday to be somewhat popular, making this an interesting game for DFS. The Texans are the clearly superior team, and even as the traveling team they are favored by six points. This game has an early-week Over/Under of only 41.5.

TEXANS PASS OFFENSE

Even last week in a huge game against the Colts, the Texans remained a run-heavy team until the fourth quarter — putting us in a position where we need to “assume run-heavy” from this team, and need to bet on efficiency or an outlier game flow in order to bet heavily on the pass. On the two-game slate, there is obviously a case to be made for Watson as the top quarterback and Hopkins as the top wide receiver, but from a salary allocation standpoint, this all becomes an interesting discussion. Game flow will be an element to consider if attacking this two-game slate.

On a per-pass basis, the Jets have been tougher on opposing attacks than most realize — as they have allowed a 5% increase in the league-average aDOT, but their man-heavy coverage scheme has paired this with a 5.1% decrease in the league-average catch rate (the second best mark in the league, behind only the Ravens). This is less of a concern for DeAndre Hopkins and his incredible skill set than it is for lesser receivers on this squad.

From Week 6 on, Hopkins has target counts of 6 // 8 // 7 // 12 // 6 // 6 // 12 // 10. It has seemingly gone unnoticed by the fantasy community that Hopkins has topped 100 yards only once in these eight games (105 yards on 12 targets against Denver), with his incredible seven touchdowns in this stretch keeping his value high. The best bet on Hopkins is on his touchdown upside (the Jets rank middle of the pack in touchdowns allowed to wideouts with 13, through 13 weeks). Working in Hopkins’ favor is the second highest percentage share of team air yards in the NFL. If the Texans do take to the air, Hopkins will be heavily involved.

Without Keke Coutee on the field the last two weeks, Demaryius Thomas has seen target counts of only five and six (adding yardage/touchdown totals of 32-0 // 48-0), making him a “hope for a broken play or a touchdown” bet.

Coutee is finally expected to return (again) from his long-troublesome hamstring injury. In his two games sharing the field with DT, Coutee has seen target counts of nine and two, going 5-77-0 and 2-14-0. As we have explored (and targeted) all season: the Jets are weakest against slot receivers. This offense is designed to flow through Hopkins, so a huge spike in targets for Coutee would be difficult to bet on — but he does have a shot at riding his speed to upside in this spot.

The Texans’ three-man tight end rotation remains a “guess and hope” group. They will be taking on a Jets tight end defense keyed by stud safety Jamal Adams that has faced the fewest targets, allowed the fewest catches, and allowed the third fewest yards to the position.

TEXANS RUN OFFENSE

The Jets rank 20th in yards allowed per carry, and with this team regularly playing from behind, they have faced the fifth most rush attempts in the league while allowing the sixth most rushing yards per game. This is a good setup for Lamar Miller, who has recent touch counts of 23 // 18 // 14 // 23 // 13 // 20 // 19. The 14-touch game came with Miller getting stonewalled by the Broncos. The 14-touch game came with Miller being rested in a blowout after piling up 167 yards and a touchdown.

Behind Miller, Alfred Blue has recent touch counts of 8 // 14 // 13 // 6 in this run-leaning offense, though he has only 12 catches and two touchdowns all season, while failing to top 54 rushing yards in a single game all year. He’s a bet-on-outlier play.

JETS OFFENSE

The Jets enter an extremely difficult spot this week on offense against an aggressive, multi-look defense that will pull out all the stops this week to confuse rookie Sam Darnold. The Jets have taken the ninth fewest sacks in the NFL this year with their ball-out-quick attack, but only two teams have turned the ball over more times than New York. Houston ranks 11th in sacks and fifth in takeaways.

In the Jets’ continual quest to protect the confidence of Sam Darnold and bring him along slowly, they will likely begin this game trying to establish a balanced approach — though with a run-blocking unit that ranks bottom five in adjusted line yards set to take on a Houston defense that ranks second in yards allowed per carry, a run-leaning approach from this team will likely lead to quickly-stalled drives. There is a decent chance that Houston — with their own run-leaning approach — will control this game in terms of both time of possession and total plays (the Jets rank 26th in time of possession, while Houston ranks 12th), making it difficult to bet on any Jets pieces with confidence. With Isaiah Crowell looking likely to miss this game, we should see Elijah McGuire carrying the load as the primary back here. Last week after Crow went down early, McGuire played 40 of a possible 54 snaps, while Trenton Cannon played 18. Cannon is dealing with a hamstring injury of his own and may not play. The best bet for production from McGuire will be a broken play, a touchdown, or a spike in “outlet” pass game usage. McGuire does have target counts since returning of 5 // 6 // 3 // 2 // 4, though he has yet to top 37 yards through the air. Houston has been average at preventing running back production through the air.

Pass catchers continue to be a black hole for the Jets, with only three games all year of more than 206 passing yards for Sam Darnold in this horizontal attack. Houston has defined the league average against the pass, creating a spot that neither raises nor lowers expectations for the Jets.

If hunting for upside on this side of the ball, the best bet is Robby Anderson, who has quietly seen recent target counts of 10 // 7 // 5 // 7 // 7. Of course, last week was the first time in Anderson’s last six games in which he topped 50 receiving yards — but he is seeing work downfield, and he’ll be given a few opportunities to hit for big plays.

Jermaine Kearse continues to offer nothing out of the slot and is merely a “hope for miracle production” play after topping 35 yards only twice all season.

Quincy Enunwa continues to produce below expectations while playing on the perimeter, with recent yardage totals of 0 // 9 // 40 // 18 // 73 // 9 // 22.

The best matchup on this side of the ball belongs to Chris Herndon, who will take on a Houston defense allowing the ninth most yards and the ninth most catches to the tight end position, in spite of facing very few elite units. Herndon has topped 34 yards only once in his last four games, and he has not scored since Week 8. Everything on this side of the ball is speculative at best.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

If we were playing this game on the Main Slate, none of the Jets would be of any interest, but on the two-gamer you may have to go here for some low-floor, non-invisible upside savings. Anderson and McGuire are the most intriguing plays as guys with potential for upside, while Herndon is not a total dud. Behind these guys, it’s truly just crossing your fingers and hoping.

The primary plays on the Texans are Watson, Hopkins, and Miller, with everyone behind them simply “hope for a touchdown, a broken play, or outlier usage” options. I slightly prefer Baker Mayfield on the two-game slate myself (and the DFS sex appeal of Watson will likely lead to higher ownership on him), though there are obviously clear paths to Watson putting up the higher score if you want to go there. Working in Watson’s favor is a matchup against a man- and blitz-heavy defense that should give Hopkins opportunities to win, and should also give Watson opportunities to pick up some yards on the ground. Working against Watson is the typical low-volume nature of this attack.

Hopkins is overpriced for his typical usage range, but his touchdown and big-play upside keep him attractive on this small slate — especially as he is truly the only receiver on Saturday with guaranteed usage and a high production floor.

Miller stands out as a strong play at the running back position on this slate, with locked-in usage, a respectable floor, and a respectable ceiling. His price is attractive on both FanDuel and DraftKings this week.

BROWNS // BRONCOS OVERVIEW

The Broncos have all but fallen out of the playoff hunt — and much like the Bengals a few weeks ago, any glimmer of hope that remains to this team feels more theoretical than anything. With a decimated secondary, no Demaryius Thomas, and no Emmanuel Sanders, Denver is running on fumes. On Saturday night, they will host a red hot Browns team that has won three of their last four (winning two of those games decisively), and that looks like a team on the rise with one of the most well-designed offenses and one of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the league. The Broncos opened this game as modest four point favorites, and were quickly bet down to -3.0. This game carries an early-week Over/Under of 45.5 — four points higher than the game being played earlier in the day.

BROWNS PASS OFFENSE

The Broncos’ secondary is a mess right now, with Bradley Roby allowing an ungodly 15.2 yards per reception on the year (with six touchdowns allowed to only one interception, and with a 118.5 quarterback rating on throws into his coverage), and with third-round rookie Isaac Yiadom not yet ready for the NFL game, with 12.9 yards allowed per reception himself (along with two touchdowns and a 115.5 QB rating allowed in his limited time on the field). This week, the Broncos will be taking on what has become one of the more creatively-schemed offenses in the NFL, led by a quarterback in Baker Mayfield who has completed 74.8% of his passes across his last four games, with a TD : INT ratio of 9 : 3, and with an incredible 10.0 yards per pass attempt (on the year, Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL in yards per pass attempt at 8.9). The only thing that has held Mayfield back lately has been volume, as this team has kept him to 26 or fewer pass attempts in three of his last four games (all of which were wins). The only time he topped 26 pass attempts was two weeks ago when the Browns were chasing points in Houston.

Frustratingly from a DFS perspective: this low-volume passing attack continues to spread the ball around, with no pass catcher reliably seeing even five targets per game. The closest this team has given us to “reliability” is the tandem of Jarvis Landry and David Njoku. During this four-game hot streak for the Browns’ passing attack, target counts for these two have looked like this:

:: Landry — 5 // 5 // 9 // 4
:: Njoku — 1 // 5 // 6 // 4

Landry continues to be used primarily on underneath routes, keeping his floor bone bare (in Weeks 10 and 12 he failed to top even 30 yards; in Week 14, he produced a 2-6-0 line outside of the beautiful 51-yard bomb that Mayfield threaded through coverage to Landry in the end zone). Consider Landry a low-floor, solid-ceiling play.

The Broncos are sure to focus on fixing the communication issues that led to George Kittle running wide open so often last week, which should turn them back into the middling matchup they have been for tight ends all year. Njoku will likely need a touchdown in order to stand out on this slate — though tight end is ugly enough on the two-gamer that he is obviously in the conversation.

Behind these guys, Antonio Callaway, Rashard Higgins, and Breshad Perriman continue to offer low floors and modest ceilings. Callaway is the best bet for a big play — though as he showed last week (one catch for zero yards on a single target), his floor is not at all guaranteed.

BROWNS RUN OFFENSE

If we take away the 43 carries for 427 yards that Crowell and Gurley pasted the Broncos for in back-to-back weeks midway through the season, this team has allowed only 3.92 yards per carry to running backs. This creates a tough spot for Nick Chubb on the ground — though Chubb has benefitted lately from elite usage, with touch counts since the Carlos Hyde trade of 18 // 20 // 23 // 23 // 31 // 12 // 17. With Duke Johnson disappearing lately (seven total touches across his last three games), Chubb has recent target counts of 3 // 3 // 3 // 6, making him a volume-based bet on this slate. The matchup lowers his floor; the usage keeps his ceiling intact.

BRONCOS PASS OFFENSE

Cleveland has been strong against the pass this year, impressively shaving 4.9% off the league-average aDOT while shaving 5.1% off the league-average catch rate. This has led to the Browns ranking ninth in yards allowed per pass attempt — and with the third most interceptions in the league, this has been a unit for opposing passing attacks to avoid. Look for the Broncos to lean run-heavy in this spot for as long as they can (Denver has a pass play rate of only 53.59% across their last three games — which would rank 28th in the NFL — while Cleveland ranks 22nd in opponent pass play rate), though Mayfield and the Browns’ passing attack should eventually nudge Denver toward the air.

This attack gets a bit easier to sort out if Denzel Ward gets cleared in time for this game, as Ward would trail Courtland Sutton for much of the game — making Sutton nothing more than a “bet on broken play or touchdown” option, while opening a few more guaranteed looks for Tim Patrick and DaeSean Hamilton. (If Ward misses, on the other hand: Sutton’s chances of reaching his upside will grow a bit, though he will still carry the same poor-connection-with-quarterback caveat he has carried all season; if Ward misses, it will also become more difficult to bank on targets for Patrick and Hamilton.) It is also worth noting that Sutton played only 51 snaps in Week 14, to 64 for Patrick and 72 for Hamilton. Incredibly, Case Keenum has thrown only five passes more than 16 yards downfield across his last two games combined — which is severely limiting the per-play upside on all of these guys.

Patrick played primarily on the perimeter last week against the 49ers, working the sidelines for out routes and corner routes. He saw a monstrous 10 targets, which he turned into seven catches for 85 yards. Working against Patrick is his attachment to a passing attack that has not topped 205 yards in four straight games (with zero games in this stretch in which Keenum has completed even 60% of his passes). Working for Patrick is an every-down role and a strong shot at another five to eight targets. He carries a low floor on these looks, but there is enough upside for him to be considered on this slate.

The same goes for Hamilton, who worked primarily on underneath routes last week and turned his nine targets and seven catches into only 47 yards. This is not a great matchup for Hamilton to grow a downfield role, but it’s almost impossible for him to continue averaging only 6.7 yards per reception, leaving a bit of untapped upside on this play. We cannot count on Keenum throwing the ball 42 times again (heading into last week, he had not topped 32 pass attempts in three straight games), so target expectations should be bumped down a couple pegs — but there is still room on this two-game slate for one or two of these pass catchers to matter.

Even with Keenum uncorking 42 throws last week, Matt LaCosse saw only one target while playing 60 snaps and running 31 pass routes. Across his two games in the starting role, he has gone 1-3-0 on two targets. He’ll obviously need a big rise in work in order to provide value on this slate.

BRONCOS RUN OFFENSE

The Browns’ aggressive defense has presented a quality matchup for running backs this year, with the 11th most yards allowed per carry and the 10th most receiving yards allowed to running backs. While the yardage upside is nice, the main reason we have been targeting running backs this year against the Browns has been the touchdowns, as only one team has allowed more rushing touchdowns to the position than the 14 the Browns have allowed.

This is a strong setup for Phillip Lindsay, who took a commanding share of the Broncos’ snaps last week, playing 48 snaps to nine for Royce Freeman and 17 for Devontae Booker. This is where it becomes important to drop a reminder that Lindsay played only four more snaps than Freeman in Week 13 — but if the Week 14 deployment carries over to this week, Lindsay’s floor/ceiling will grow. Across his last four games, he has touch counts of 15 // 14 // 20 // 18. Another 14 to 18 touches is the safest projection, but there is room for Lindsay to grow his role further. His explosive burst and his red zone usage (10 touchdowns on the year) give him a strong setup in this spot.

Behind Lindsay, Freeman and Booker are nothing more than dart throws — hoping for a broken play or a multi-touchdown game.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

All bets are off on the Broncos behind Lindsay (who I like quite a bit in this spot), as this broken passing attack is entering a tough matchup, and the 42 pass attempts we saw from this team last week has been more “outlier” than “norm” lately. Patrick, Hamilton, and Sutton should all be involved — with Sutton carrying the most upside if Ward misses, and with Patrick/Hamilton perhaps becoming an interesting Bundle Play if Ward is out there. I typically prefer these bundle/”Cheat Code” plays when the points are pretty guaranteed to hit between the two guys being considered — which is not the case here; but on a slate this small, there is a chance these guys combine for enough points to matter while opening salary for other spots on the slate. Each guy can also be played solo as a guess-and-hope option. Sutton can be targeted in tourneys even if Ward is on the field — though his chances of reaching this upside obviously becomes slimmer if he is locking horns with the Browns’ stud rookie.

On the Browns’ side, I like Mayfield quite a bit on the two-game slate, with the only concern coming from the low-volume nature of this Browns passing attack. A best-case scenario here would call for the Broncos to hang tight throughout (or to even play with a lead, with help from the home crowd), but Mayfield will have a shot at solid production regardless — especially if the Broncos slow down the run and push Cleveland to the air.

Everything else on this Browns passing attack carries a low floor, leaving these guys as guess-and-hope plays. Landry and Njoku are the best of the bunch, though neither inspires confidence.

Chubb is a bet-on-usage play on the two-game slate. His role in this offense is big enough that he will have a solid shot at producing even in a difficult matchup.

COWBOYS // COLTS OVERVIEW

Cowboys at Colts has surprisingly become one of the most exciting games of the year, with the Cowboys riding a five game win streak, and with the Colts having won six of their last seven games. The Colts have primarily gotten here with a fast-paced offense that scores a lot of points (first in pace of play // eighth in points per game), while the Cowboys have slowed down the pace (28th), leaned on the run (25th in pass play rate), and played strong defense (second in points allowed). Only three teams have allowed fewer yards than the Cowboys this year, and only seven teams have allowed a lower drive success rate. With all that said, it’s worth noting that the Texans entered last week’s home game against the Colts ranked second in opponent drive success rate and fifth in points allowed. This is a “challenging but not impossible” spot for a Colts team that will benefit from playing this game at home. Vegas has managed to fade public sentiment (which has a tendency to over-bet the Cowboys), installing the Colts as three point home favorites in a game with an Over/Under of 47.0.

COWBOYS RUN OFFENSE

On paper, the Colts have been tough against the run this year — ranking sixth in yards allowed per carry while ranking fifth in DVOA — though it is fair to question the validity of these numbers, as Indy has faced only four teams that rank even top 14 in DVOA on the ground, while facing only three teams that rank top 14 in yards per carry. (Indy has not faced a single team that ranks top eight in either category.) Against the teams that are in this “nine to 14” range of rankings (Washington, New England, Cincy, Miami), the Colts allowed rushing // receiving lines of:

:: Washington — 15-21-0 rushing // 16-122-0 receiving
:: New England — 20-98-1 rushing // 11-89-1 receiving
:: Cincinnati — 18–93-1 rushing // 6-65-0 receiving
:: Miami — 22-99-1 rushing // 6-74-1 receiving

Dallas does not rank top eight in either rush offense DVOA or yards per carry themselves, but this unit very clearly ranks in the same per-play range as the last three teams listed above, and with Ezekiel Elliott boasting recent touch counts of 30 // 31 // 29 // 40 (with reception totals of 7 // 5 // 6 // 12), there is plenty of room for him to succeed in this spot. On paper, he carries the highest floor/ceiling projection on the slate.

COWBOYS PASS OFFENSE

No team in the NFL has forced a shallower aDOT than the Colts, but only one team has allowed a higher catch rate — a setup that has led to the Colts ranking a middling 18th in yards allowed per pass attempt. While these raw numbers appear moderately attackable, however, digging down one layer deeper reminds us that the Colts tilt their Tampa 2 coverage heavily toward wide receivers — with this team facing the most running back targets in the NFL, the fourth most tight end targets, and the fewest wide receiver targets. On average, the Colts face only 16.1 wide receiver targets per game — an extremely low mark that introduces some floor concerns for Amari Cooper at his quickly-rising price. Across the last four weeks, Amari’s target counts have gone 5 // 9 // 8 // 13, with his 30 targets across the last three weeks accounting for a healthy 26.5% of the total looks on this team. Last week was the first week in this stretch in which Amari saw legitimate downfield work, with only two total targets coming more than 10 yards downfield in Weeks 12 and 13 combined (one was a 15-yard out route that carried him to the sidelines; the other was the post route that he caught against Washington on Thanksgiving before putting on the brakes, reversing field, and running another 60 yards for a touchdown). Amari’s five downfield targets last week were primarily designed to attack Eagles’ weakest link Sidney Jones, so it is no guarantee we see similar deployment this week against a Colts defense that does a better job than any team in the league at forcing short throws. With all that said: Amari’s ceiling is undeniable right now, while his connection with Dak has been strong — producing an 86.7% catch rate across the last three weeks. Amari’s usage will make it difficult for him to fail, but his chances of reaching upside are slimmer in this spot than they were the last few weeks.

Behind Amari, this passing attack has belonged primarily to Zeke, with another 22.1% of the targets across the last three weeks flowing his direction. Remaining pass catchers have seen the following target counts since Amari began his explosion in Week 12:

:: Michael Gallup — 6 // 7 // 9
:: Cole Beasley — 3 // 3 // 4
:: Blake Jarwin — 2 // 1 // 7

Gallup carries the most upside, though he and Dak continue to struggle in their connection, with a 50% completion rate between these two across the last three weeks (good for an 11-119-0 line) — making him nothing more than a speculative play. Jarwin’s spike in targets last week came with the Cowboys running 99 plays and throwing the ball an uncharacteristic 54 times. There is a chance he sees another small spike against a Colts team that filters targets to tight ends, but Zeke is likely to be the first look ahead of Jarwin on plays that force Dak away from the wide receivers. Beasley is more valuable in real life than he is in fantasy and will require an outlier game in order to provide value.

COLTS PASS OFFENSE

The Cowboys’ defense runs a lot of the same concepts as the Colts’ defense (though with more talented pieces) — leading to this team allowing a 5.6% increase on the league-average catch rate, while forcing a below-average aDOT and tackling well after the catch. The Cowboys rank a nonthreatening 13th in yards allowed per pass attempt — though similar to the matchup that the Colts present on the other side of this game, the Cowboys have faced the second fewest wide receiver targets and allowed the second fewest wide receiver receptions, while facing the second most tight end targets and the 14th most running back targets. Last week against an Eagles team that torched them with Zach Ertz a few weeks back, the Cowboys were able to tilt coverage to force Carson Wentz to look elsewhere, but this will be more difficult to do against a Colts team that boasts T.Y. Hilton as a field-stretcher. Eric Ebron has target counts of 16 // 8 across the last two weeks, keeping him on track for another useful game in this spot.

The matchup is also less daunting for Hilton than the season-long numbers make things appear, as Dallas has played an absolutely cake schedule of passing matchups — with five games against bottom-rung attacks (two against Washington // one against Detroit // one against Tennessee // one against Jacksonville), another three games against run-heavy teams (Panthers // Texans // Seahawks), a game against the season-long-struggling Giants, and two games against the season-long-struggling Eagles. The only games the Cowboys have had against noteworthy passing attacks have come at home against the Saints (in a game in which the Cowboys dominated time of possession and the Saints threw only 21 passes) and on the road against Atlanta — where Matt Ryan completed 24 of 34 passes (70.6%) for 291 yards and a touchdown. Julio Jones went 6-118-1 in that game on nine targets. DeAndre Hopkins also went 9-151-0 on 13 targets in this matchup, while Golden Tate went 8-132-2 for the Lions. Short-term memory makes it feel funny to put T.Y. in the same conversation as Julio and Hopkins, but long-term memory reminds us that Hilton led the NFL in receiving yards in 2016 before playing with Jacoby Brissett last year and dealing with Andrew Luck’s shoulder and some injuries of his own through the first half of this year. In his last four games, Hilton has target counts of 9 // 10 // 13 // 12. His floor is very much in play here (somewhere in the range of 5-50-0), but his ceiling remains as high as any player on the slate, making him a risk/reward option this weekend.

This passing attack flows almost exclusively through Ebron and Hilton (an awesome 52.7% of Luck’s total passes across the last two weeks have gone to these two), with Nyheim Hines seeing recent target counts of 9 // 5, Chester Rogers going 0 // 6, Zach Pascal going 1 // 6, and Dontrelle Inman going 6 // DNP. Inman is expected to return this week to provide a set of hands on underneath routes. He’ll need a touchdown or some missed tackles in order to show up on the leaderboards this weekend. Distribution behind Inman is a guessing game.

COLTS RUN OFFENSE

The worst matchup in this game goes to the Colts’ rushing attack, as Marlon Mack and his recent yardage totals on the ground of 61 // 85 // 27 // 33 will be taking on a Cowboys run defense that ranks fourth in DVOA and first in yards allowed per carry. Only three teams have allowed fewer rushing yards to running backs, and only two teams have allowed more touchdowns. In matchups such as this one, the Colts have shown a tendency to abandon the run and take to the air, furthering lowering the floor on Mack. With only six targets across his last four games and no games in this stretch above 16 carries, he will need an unpredictable spike in workload or a couple of broken plays in order to provide useful value on this slate.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Zeke stands out to me as one of the top floor/ceiling plays on the slate, with his outlook enhanced in the pass game in this spot, and with a winnable matchup on the ground. The Cowboys are not going to run another 99 plays here (63 to 68 plays is a more reasonable expectation), so somewhere in the range of 25 to 30 touches is likelier for Zeke than the 40 he saw last week — but he should still be able to provide strong production as the engine of the Cowboys’ offense. Elsewhere on this team, Dak has a shot to ride Zeke and Amari to another strong game, keeping him in the tourney conversation. Amari carries a modest floor in this spot for the price, with his chances of reaching upside slimmer than last week — though the upside is obviously very much still in place.

My attention on the Colts’ side of this game will swing over to Luck, Hilton, and Ebron, as the Colts have shown a tendency in back-to-back weeks to lean heavily on the pass when taking on a team that is strong against the run. Hilton and Ebron have combined for target counts of 20 and 29 across the last two weeks, and both guys will have a solid shot at producing value this week. Luck has carried one of the highest floors and ceilings at the quarterback position this year. Against a Cowboys defense that has been a standout unit lately, none of these plays are as secure as I would be looking for most weeks — but given the strange nature of this week’s slate, these guys are very much in the floor/ceiling conversation for me.

DOLPHINS // VIKINGS OVERVIEW

This game gives us two teams that feel like they are moving in opposite directions at the moment, with the Dolphins continuing to find ways to pull out wins, and with the Vikings coming off a dispiriting loss to the Seahawks — though if the season were to end today, it is actually the 6-6-1 Vikings who would be making the playoffs, while the 7-6 Dolphins would fall shy in the AFC. From a talent standpoint, the Vikings are the much better team, but this game should bring us two squads playing with all-out effort, with the loser of this game likely moving into very rough shape for a playoff spot. With the Dolphins racking up a 6-1 record at home this year while going 1-5 on the road, the oddsmakers have installed the Vikings as touchdown favorites, in a game with an Over/Under of 44.5.

DOLPHINS PASS OFFENSE

The Dolphins continue to win games with one of the least aggressive offenses in the NFL — riding a run-heavy, ball-control style of play that has led to Ryan Tannehill topping 25 pass attempts only once in his last seven games. This team ranks seventh in the NFL in turnover differential, and they will continue to limit passing volume for as long as possible in this spot.

When Tannehill does pass, his favorite target has been Kenny Stills, who has recent, ascending target counts of 4 // 6 // 9. Stills’ 15 targets across the last two weeks on only 43 Tannehill pass attempts is good for a 34.9% share of this team’s looks — a massive total that is unlikely to hold, but that would leave Stills with some value moving forward if it does.

On the pass attempts that the Dolphins do dial up this week, their wide receivers will deal with a difficult matchup against a Minnesota secondary that has allowed the fourth fewest receptions and the fifth fewest yards to the wide receiver position.

Targets behind Stills the last two weeks have looked like this:

:: DeVante Parker — 7 // 4
:: Danny Amendola — 1 // 1
:: Brice Butler — 4 // 1

Parker is likeliest to draw attention from Xavier Rhodes, though he can be considered one of the top three weapons with Tannehill under center (alongside Stills and Kenyan Drake). Everyone in this low-volume “attack” is nothing more than a bet-on-broken-play option. Even if game flow pushes the Dolphins to the air more often than normal, the matchup will make it difficult for this unit to pile up production.

DOLPHINS RUN OFFENSE

For fantasy purposes, the Dolphins’ backfield has been one of the least attractive units in the league this year, with Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake splitting work in a low-scoring offense (22nd in points per game) that prefers to slow down the pace (31st in pace of play). Gore has only 12 catches on the year, and he has only one touchdown and only one game north of 100 yards — making him a slim bet from a yardage-and-touchdown perspective. And while Drake has often been able to produce like a starting-caliber back, there are others priced around him who can provide the same upside without his scary-low floor. The matchup is difficult for both of these guys, against a Minnesota run defense that ranks seventh in yards allowed per carry. If chasing this spot, your best bet is on the upside of Drake — hoping he turns one of his receptions or limited carries into a long gain or a touchdown.

VIKINGS OFFENSE

Before we get to the Vikings’ passing attack, the most important thing to talk about is the firing of first-year offensive coordinator John DeFilippo. Through the first 13 games of the season, the Steelers are the only team in the NFL that has thrown the ball more frequently than the Vikings — which has allowed both Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs to rank top five in the NFL in targets per game (an awesome distinction for two players on the same team), while allowing Thielen to be one of the highest floor/ceiling players in the NFL this year in spite of typically sticking to the short and intermediate areas of the field. Since returning from his layoff, Dalvin Cook has seen carry counts of 10 // 9 // 10 // 9 // 13. The 13 carries last week came after DeFilippo said on Friday that he would “absolutely” like to see Cook carry the ball more — this statement coming on the heels of head coach Mike Zimmer saying earlier in the week that they should have run the ball more in their loss to the Patriots. Zimmer had a similar statement in mid-November after a loss to the Bears, and it seems more than likely that the first job of new O.C. Kevin Stefanski will be to reestablish the run. Stefanski has been with this team for 13 years and was originally expected to be promoted to this job when Pat Shurmur left for New York, so the communication between he and Zimmer should be clear and rhythmic if this is their desired approach. All of these hypotheses are further backed up by the matchup, as there are only two teams in football facing a higher opponent rush play rate than the Dolphins. Miami has faced the second most running back rush attempts in the NFL, allowing the fourth most yards. The Dolphins have also been middling against pass-catching backs, where Cook has thrived lately — hauling in 16 catches on 19 targets across the last three weeks. Cook was a near every-down player last week (50 out of 58 snaps, after playing 47 of 61 the week before), and there is a strong chance he is a focal point for the Vikings this week. His price on FanDuel is outlandishly low (10.3% of the cap), while he is still a bit underpriced on DraftKings for his expected range of production at 13% of the cap.

Outside of the low volume that the Dolphins’ pass defense has faced (10th fewest pass attempts in the NFL) and their ability to force interceptions (only the Bears have more picks this year), this matchup is fairly non-threatening — keeping Kirk Cousins and his primary pass catchers in the discussion this week (especially if you disagree with the suppositions above and instead feel that the Vikings will continue to attack heavily through the air). The Dolphins continue to add over 7% to the league-average aDOT while struggling to stop opponents after the catch, leading to a number 28 ranking in yards allowed per pass attempts.

Target counts for Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs since Cook returned from his hamstring injury to take over a share of the pass game role look like this:

:: Thielen —7 // 12 // 9 // 10 // 7
:: Diggs — DNP // 18 // 11 // 6 // 6

Your best bet on Thielen is to hope for a heavy-volume game, as his low 9.3 yards per reception typically requires him to pile up targets in order to pop for a big game. Your best bet on Diggs is for Xavien Howard to miss again and improve this matchup. Either way, Diggs will remain a low-floor play with monster upside given the way he is used (lots of short passes designed to get the ball into his hands in space with blockers in front — usage that sometimes leads to sub-50-yard totals, and that sometimes leads to blowup games; Diggs should also see a couple downfield shots).

Behind these two (and Cook), Aldrick Robinson, Laquon Treadwell, and Kyle Rudolph are all functioning as satellite options who will need some lucky breaks to pay off this week.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

There are players on the Dolphins who could produce a usable game this week, but none of them catch my eye as players I want to try to guess on. I’ll be leaving that offense alone. If going there, Drake and Stills would be the most attractive options.

The Vikings’ side of the ball is a different story, as Dalvin Cook will have a shot at eclipsing 20 touches for the first time since Week 1. This is still one of the worst run-blocking units in the NFL, but the matchup and Cook’s explosive skill set will keep the floor fairly high if the usage lands in the 18 to 22 touch range, while the ceiling is attractive as well. He looks clearly underpriced on FanDuel to me, while checking in as slightly underpriced on DraftKings. Behind Cook, Diggs is the most attractive receiver for me (as a tourney-only play, of course), given the big upside he carries, while Thielen and Cousins don’t pop off the page, but they are certainly part of the Week 15 conversation.

RAIDERS // BENGALS OVERVIEW

This slate is defined by good offensive units facing tough matchups, and by bad offensive units (or bad offenses as a whole) soaking up the easier matchups. In no spot on the slate does this strange setup stand out more than in the game between the Raiders and the Bengals, as Oakland ranks 29th in points per game, while the Bengals have put up point totals of 20 // 10 // 21 across the last three weeks with Jeff Driskel playing all or part of this team’s snaps. On the year, Cincinnati ranks 28th in total defensive DVOA while the Raiders rank 31st, and these teams hold the bottom two rungs in points allowed per game. This game is not guaranteed to be pretty…but one way or another, some points should be scored — making it one of the more interesting spots to consider this weekend. This game carries a non-embarrassing Over/Under of 46.0, with the Bengals installed as three point favorites at home.

RAIDERS PASS OFFENSE

Only four teams have allowed more passing touchdowns than Cincinnati, and only five teams have allowed more yards per pass attempt — setting up Derek Carr and company with one of the better matchups in the league. The Bengals have bumped up the league-average aDOT by 6.2%, and they have bumped up the league-average catch rate by 2.5%.

While the matchup is non-threatening, it does remain difficult to reliably bet on production from this passing attack — especially outside of lead tight end Jared Cook. Across the last two weeks, Carr has been asked to throw only four passes more than 20 yards downfield, with this team more focused on precision-oriented designs and route concepts that allow them to slowly move the field. This has left yardage upside extremely thin across the board in this spread-the-wealth attack, with Jordy Nelson going for recent yardage totals of 14 // 16 // 0 // 0 // 97 // 48, and with Seth Roberts going for recent yardage totals of 42 // 8 // 39 // 38 // 54 // 25 // 76. Since ascending to the wide receiver rotation on this team in Week 11, Marcell Ateman has gone 50 // 16 // 16 // 45. With this game likely to remain close, and with the Raiders A) able to run the ball in this matchup as well, and B) happy to spread their short-area looks to multiple pass catchers without a single clear alpha, all three of these guys are best viewed as floor plays, with ceiling dependent on volume or touchdowns. Given the low price tags across the board here, there is hope for one or two of these guys to matter, but all of them remain thin plays best suited to tourneys. With that said: Carr has looked far more comfortable in this offense lately, going for 285+ yards in back-to-back games, and throwing eight touchdowns and zero picks across his last four contests. While it’s a guessing game as to which of these guys will produce, it is likely that at least one of these three receivers posts a useful game in this spot.

The clearest play on this side of the ball right now is Cook, who finally returned to near-every-down status last week (playing 57 out of 67 snaps), and who has recent target counts of 9 // 6 // 5 // 8 // 10. More importantly: Cook has accounted for three of the Raiders’ four targets across the last two weeks that have traveled 20+ yards downfield, giving him the clearest shot at upside in the bunch. The Bengals have allowed the sixth most pass plays of 20+ yards this year, and they have been below-average against tight ends — allowing the 13th most yards and the ninth most catches, while ranking 16th in DVOA against the position. Cook carries a non-awful floor for the price, and his ceiling is among the highest at the position on the main slate this weekend.

RAIDERS RUN OFFENSE

The Raiders have been an average team on the ground this year, ranking 14th in adjusted line yards and 18th in yards per carry — though they have been tough to target in DFS, as they continue to divide the workload between Doug Martin (33 snaps last week) and Jalen Richard (33 snaps last week). The split workload will remain a concern in this spot — lessening our ability to target Certainty on either of these players — but the matchup certainly provides some paths to upside, as the Bengals rank 24th in yards allowed per carry and have allowed more touchdowns to running backs than any other team in football.

Martin has yet to top 72 rushing yards in a game this year, and his best game through the air was three catches for 31 yards (Martin’s pass game usage is dump-off oriented, rather than being schemed targets designed to get him into space with blockers out in front), so while he has recent touch counts of 14 // 20 // 16, he remains a touchdown-dependent play. At his price, his floor is not back-breaking, while his streak of three straight games with a touchdown provides a non-awful shot at useful production.

Richard has been less predictable — failing to top three catches in any of his last four games, while going for recent touch counts of 14 // 3 // 9 // 9. His floor this year has been close to zero, but he does have more ceiling than he has shown so far, with zero touchdowns on the year. Richard has seven red zone carries and four red zone targets, giving him an outside shot at pairing yardage and touchdowns in a pristine spot such as this.

BENGALS PASS OFFENSE

Although the Raiders lack the necessary talent in the secondary to be a shutdown force, they continue to improve their communication on the back end in this Paul Guenther zone scheme — making it difficult for quarterbacks to find big, open windows in which to throw. Last week against the Steelers, this defense was surprisingly able to slow down Antonio Brown in the same way Guenther’s Bengals units did for years — and while JuJu Smith-Schuster benefitted with a monster game, the connections between he and Roethlisberger in that game are not necessarily throws/catches that a Jeff Driskel-led Bengals team will be able to replicate. From a full-season perspective, this matchup looks nice, as Oakland ranks dead last in yards allowed per pass attempt, though they have actually been fairly average this year outside of the YAC allowed department (and have in fact shaved 2.1% off the league-average catch rate). With Tyler Boyd standing out as the only weapon for the Raiders to really have to worry about, it won’t be surprising if Guenther and co. are able to come up with a plan to make life difficult on the Driskel-to-Boyd connection. Introducing further uncertainty in this spot is the fact that teams have not even bothered to attack Oakland through the air this year — with the Raiders facing the fewest pass attempts in the NFL, at an average of 29.5 attempts per game. Only one team has allowed more touchdowns to wide receivers than the Raiders have allowed…but with volume against them so low, they have managed to allow the fewest wide receiver catches in the league.

Across the last three weeks, Boyd has seen target counts of 8 // 8 // 6, and he continues to be the main intermediate/downfield weapon under Driskel, with 11 of his 14 targets across the last two weeks coming at least 10 yards downfield (and with two of his looks coming more than 20 yards downfield). Big production is not guaranteed in this passing attack — against a talent-deficient, but decently-schemed pass defense that will be looking to take him away — but there is still some upside to chase.

Behind Boyd, this passing attack has been in shambles since Dalton went down, with John Ross going 2-13-0 and 2-11-1, and with Cody Core going 1-30-1 and 3-30-0. The best bet behind Boyd is C.J. Uzomah, who continues to provide decent price-considered floor with very little ceiling. Uzomah has not topped 41 yards since Week 6, with almost all of his looks coming as an underneath outlet, rather than as a schemed target downfield. He’s unlikely to fail in this spot, but he will need a broken play or a touchdown to really matter.

BENGALS RUN OFFENSE

Only six teams have allowed more yards per carry this year than the Raiders, while no team has faced a lower opponent pass play rate — leading to this squad facing the third most rush attempts and allowing the second most yards on the ground to running backs in the league. On average, the Raiders allow a running back rushing line of 24.85 carries for 122.9 yards — creating a strong spot for Joe Mixon, who led this backfield last week with 47 snaps and 31 touches in a close loss to the Chargers, ahead of the 25 snaps and five touches that Giovani Bernard saw. The Bengals went out of their way last week to keep the ball on the ground — running on over 50% of their plays — and while that was obviously a game plan specific approach against the Chargers’ powerful offense, it would make sense for Cincy to stick to this approach once more in a game that they can win. Mixon’s price on FanDuel has gotten a bit out of hand, but he remains a solid upside option there. On DraftKings, he is appropriately priced for the small amount of risk his up-and-down role has created, and for the big upside this play provides. With a soft matchup and a positive game flow projection, Mixon’s chances of landing on the higher end of his production range look good in this spot.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

The Raiders’ passing attack is attractive on paper as a unit, but it remains difficult to target individual pieces on this attack. The best bet here is to go Carr-to-Cook (or Cook solo) in an effort to capture the most guaranteed points and the most upside from this unit. If you want to go off the board a bit, Jordy // Roberts // Ateman (in that order) all have a shot at modest upside production, and all of them are cheap enough that they won’t kill your roster if they land on their floor instead. They’re not part of the Certainty discussion, but they are part of the tourney conversation.

Doug Martin has been more floor than ceiling, while Richard is a long-shot play for upside in this offense — though in a game that should produce some points, and with these two the top options in one of the most generous running back matchups in the NFL, both guys should be considered this week. Neither looks like a cornerstone piece for me, but Martin joins the conversation in all formats, while Richard is part of the large-field-tourney discussion.

On the Bengals’ side, Mixon stands out to me as a floor/ceiling play, while Boyd stands out as a floor play with a slim shot at ceiling. Mixon does have an outside shot at disappointing here, but he’s one of the safer plays on the slate, and his upside is enticing. He’s a better play on DraftKings and FantasyDraft than he is on FanDuel, but he’s in play across the board.

Behind these guys, it’s tough to get too excited about anything in this Driskel-led offense. Hopefully this game stays close and the Bengals are able to ride Mixon throughout, but there are some outlier game flows you could bet on if you want to go off the board.

TITANS // GIANTS OVERVIEW

Outside of one or two star players in this game, this is not a matchup that pops off the page — though from a real-life perspective, this game is a bit more interesting than most will probably give it credit for, as the 7-6 Titans are still in the thick of the playoff hunt, and the 5-8 Giants have been better than their record indicates, with a 4-1 record across their last five games, and with six of their eight losses coming by a combined deficit of only 27 points (good for an average deficit in those games of only 4.5). This game should be hard-fought and somewhat entertaining from start to finish, with the home Giants installed as 2.5 point favorites over the visiting Titans, in a game with an Over/Under of only 43.5.

TITANS PASS OFFENSE

The Giants’ pass defense has defined the league average this year, ranking middle of the pack in aDOT, catch rate, and YAC/R allowed — leading to a number 17 ranking in yards allowed per pass attempt. The Giants have faced more pass attempts this year than exactly half the league. The only areas where they separate from the pack are in touchdowns allowed (fifth fewest) and interceptions (third most). Tennessee prefers to lean on the run (31st in pass play rate), but the matchup when they do pass should neither raise nor lower expectations.

Of course, “expectations” on the Titans’ passing attack have been unpredictable and mostly poor this year, with this team ranked 28th in passing yards and 28th in passing touchdowns. Marcus Mariota has topped 300 yards twice this year. He has failed to crack 200 passing yards six times. With Tennessee struggling to push the ball across the goal line through the air and the Giants playing great red zone defense all year (sixth lowest opponent red zone touchdown rate), Mariota and this attack as a whole will need some lucky breaks to make a big dent in the slate.

The surest path to production on the Titans would be for the Giants to take a lead and force Tennessee to the air — so if building rosters that bet on the Titans’ passing attack, the best approach is to start by betting on the Giants on the other side. Mariota has topped 25 pass attempts only once in his last five games, and he has topped 30 pass attempts only three times all year.

Corey Davis continues to suffer from the low volume this attack has generated, with recent target counts of 4 // 4 // 7 // 3. He and Mariota have connected on only 57.4% of their attempts this year, while Davis continues to see most of his work within 10 to 15 yards of the line of scrimmage. He will need a spike in volume or a monster-efficiency day in order to matter. In large-field tourneys, it is worth noting that Davis has the talent to pop from time to time — especially when the workload spikes.

Behind Davis, this low-volume attack has been unusable for much of the year, though speed demon Taywan Taylor has quietly ascended to a more regular role since returning from injury — playing 41 of 60 snaps last week and seeing seven targets on only 24 Mariota pass attempts. This spike in looks corresponded with Jalen Ramsey covering Corey Davis, but Taylor also saw five targets the week before, giving him a slim shot at posting upside. Most of his targets are coming within five yards of the line of scrimmage, but he was targeted on a deep bomb last week as well.

With Jonnu Smith out, Anthony Firsker is the next man up at tight end. He’s a fairly safe bet for three to five low-upside looks in this spot, and he’ll have a shot at providing value if he punches in a score.

TITANS RUN OFFENSE

I managed to push 13 rosters to the elimination rounds of the Best Ball Championship this year — with a couple rosters in that group that had the pieces to make some serious noise down the stretch. Week 13 went poorly, however, and only two of my 13 teams advanced to Week 14…with both of these squads packed with injured players and disappointing early-round picks. One of these disappointing early-round picks on both teams was Derrick Henry. Considering that he was almost unowned on Thursday-start contests last week and was obviously not started by most people in season-long fantasy playoffs, I was fortunate enough to be one of the only people for whom that big game mattered. (Hilariously, one of my two teams with Henry still managed to get knocked out in Week 14.) After a season full of disappointment (zero games all season above 60 rushing yards), it’s fair to call Henry’s Week 14 output an outlier — especially as it came against a defense that had been one of the top units against the run throughout the season, and had allowed the second fewest running back rushing touchdowns in the league before getting lit on fire on national TV. Before looking at the matchup this week for Henry, it is important to note that he still saw only 17 touches last week. He has not topped 18 touches all season, and he has only 12 catches on the year — making him a touchdown-and-yardage-dependent back.

Working in Henry’s favor is a matchup against a Giants run defense that has allowed 10 touchdowns on the ground to running backs (the ninth most in the league), while giving up a middling 4.4 yards per carry. Henry will need another monster-efficiency day in order to really matter on this slate, making him a thin bet with the likely spike in ownership he is sure to carry. With that said: he has shown us more than once what he can do if given enough touches on the ground. Perhaps the Titans ride him a bit more this week.

Rather quietly, Henry played only 24 snaps last week — continuing to cede lead back duties to Dion Lewis, who played 38 snaps, took 10 carries, and hauled in five passes. Since his three-game usage spike from Weeks 7 through 10, Lewis has touch counts of 11 // 14 // 8 // 15, making him a bet-on-efficiency play as well. His pass game role (50 catches on the year) floats some floor his way, though he will need a spike in work or a couple of long plays to matter in this spot.

GIANTS PASS OFFENSE

The Titans have been quietly above-average against the pass this year, ranking sixth in yards allowed per pass attempt while allowing the third fewest passing touchdowns in the league — especially shining in YAC prevention, with only one team in football allowing a lower YAC/R rate than the Titans. This is a poor setup for a Giants passing attack that primarily relies on YAC in order to produce points. Eli Manning has failed to top even 200 passing yards in three of his last five games, while the Titans have allowed the seventh fewest fantasy points per game to the quarterback position.

As of this Thursday writeup, Odell Beckham is still looking iffy for this game. If he misses, it will again be Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram working as the numbers two and three options behind Saquon, with Russell Shepard and Corey Coleman picking up the scraps from there. Sterling Shepard has seen exactly six targets in three consecutive games, though his target upside was dented last week by Eli Manning throwing the ball only 22 times in the Giants’ blowout win. Without Beckham on the field last week, Manning threw only three passes that traveled more than eight yards downfield, which puts Shep in a position where he will almost certainly have to pile up volume in order to matter — though he has something like a 6-70-1 game in his range (with slim upside for more), keeping him in the conversation at his price if Beckham misses. Engram will have a tough matchup against a Tennessee defense that has allowed the sixth fewest receptions to the tight end position, but he’ll have a shot at five to eight targets if Beckham misses again.

If Beckham plays, he should immediately step back into his typical nine or more targets, giving him a decent floor and a strong ceiling at his price. In this up-and-down offense, OBJ has four games this year with 60 or fewer receiving yards, so nothing is guaranteed in this spot — but he should be able to win his matchups against Malcolm Butler and Adoree Jackson, opening the door for a potential 100-yard-and-a-touchdown game. Consider him a risk/reward option if he plays.

GIANTS RUN OFFENSE

Saquon Barkley will have a difficult matchup this week against a Tennessee defense that ranks 12th in yards allowed per carry — and whose numbers looked a whole lot better before they got upended by Lamar Miller a couple weeks ago. Heading into that game, the Titans were shaving 10% off the league-average yards allowed per carry. More importantly: no team in the NFL has allowed fewer touchdowns to running backs than the Titans have allowed. Of course, tough matchups are won by good running backs all the time (and even sometimes by middling running backs — such as Miller’s big game against the Titans a couple weeks back, and Henry’s big game against the Jags last week), but the matchup is at least worth noting. Tennessee is one of the most disciplined tackling units in the league, with the fifth fewest rush plays of 20+ yards allowed, and with the second-lowest YAC/R mark allowed.

With all of that cleared out of the way: there is literally no running back in the NFL like Saquon, who can create something out of nothing on every play, and who can take any touch to the house. He has recent touch counts of 22 // 23 // 22 // 24 // 29 // 20 // 27 // 18 (with the 18 touches coming in the Giants’ blowout win last week in which Saquon took a seat down the stretch), and he has seen five or more targets in six of his last eight games (with three games of double-digit targets in this stretch). On paper, he ranks slightly behind Zeke this week, but he can still be considered one of the highest-floor, highest-ceiling players on the slate.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Even on this strange and somewhat ugly slate, there is nothing on the Titans that I plan to target myself this week, as this team has simply produced too little in the way of useful stat lines, while the low-scoring nature of this game leaves these guys as “guess and hope” plays. It won’t be surprising if one or two useful fantasy scores emerge from this spot — but I’ll be looking for more predictable spots myself.

On the Giants, it’s all about Saquon, as there are viable paths this week to getting both Saquon and Zeke on a roster together, and there is always plenty to like about the floor and ceiling captured by securing two of the top running back plays. The line between Zeke and Saquon is also thin enough that you could easily make a case for playing Saquon first. The matchup is below-average, but Saquon has literally had the toughest running back schedule in the league (including Jacksonville // Dallas // Houston // New Orleans // Carolina // Chicago // San Francisco — with Dallas, Houston, New Orleans, and Chicago the top four teams in both yards allowed per carry and DVOA, and with the other three squads posting strong numbers against the run all year as well), and he has had only one disappointing output all year, while continuing to break the slate open on a regular basis. His chances of reaching his ceiling are a bit lower than normal in this spot, but it obviously will not surprise anyone if he pops once again. You could also make a case for Beckham if he plays, and for Shepard/Engram if Beckham misses. None of these three join the Tier 1 discussion for me, but Beckham carries slate-winning ceiling, while Shepard/Engram should provide decent floor (with a non-awful path to price-considered ceiling) if Beckham misses again.

REDSKINS // JAGUARS OVERVIEW

On one of the least attractive slates of the season, this is perhaps the least attractive game, with the rapidly-sinking, fourth-string-quarterbacked Washington Redskins traveling to Jacksonville to take on the long-sunk, second-string-quarterbacked Jaguars. The Jaguars have allowed the sixth fewest yards and the eighth fewest points on the year. Both of these offenses rank bottom eight in yards and bottom five in points. This game carries an Over/Under of only 36.0, with the Jags installed as touchdown favorites. No team has a lower Vegas-implied total than the 14.5 that the Redskins carry.

REDSKINS PASS OFFENSE

The only teams in the NFL allowing a lower expected yards per target than the Jaguars this year are the Bears, the Bills, and the Ravens — with the Jags allowing the second lowest catch rate in the league, the fourth lowest yards per pass attempt, the fewest passing touchdowns, the fourth fewest wide receiver yards, and the third fewest wide receiver receptions. Avoiding wide receivers against the Jaguars this year has been a profitable strategy, while avoiding Washington wide receivers has also been a profitable strategy. If we take away garbage time against the Giants last week, the closest any wide receiver on the Redskins has come to relevance across the last five weeks was the 6-66-0 line that Josh Doctson posted on 10 targets against the Cowboys in Week 12. This week, the Washington pass catchers will be relying on passes from journeyman Josh Johnson.

Speaking of Johnson: I imagine there will be at least some discussion this week about taking the savings on him at quarterback for his rushing upside. It is at least worth noting that no team in football has allowed more quarterback rushing yards than the Jaguars — and this is not entirely fluky, as only one team has faced more quarterback rush attempts, with the Jags’ solid downfield coverage often nudging quarterbacks to take off with the ball. Of course, Johnson’s high-efficiency, 7-45-1 line last week was fueled by garbage time, and such efficiency is unlikely to remain in this spot — likely forcing Johnson to supplement his rushing with a strong game through the air. His likeliest range is “low floor to modest ceiling,” with outlier potential for something more.

If for some reason you feel compelled to play Washington wide receivers, your best bet is Jamison Crowder working the middle of the field where the Jags are weakest. Crowder’s likeliest line is something like 4-50-0, but as he put on display last week: he is not incapable of posting some yards after the catch from time to time. Doctson would be the next most viable option if scraping the bottom of the barrel, though he will require a multi-touchdown game in likely shadow coverage from Jalen Ramsey in order to become worthwhile.

This passing attack wraps up at the tight end position, where we have one of the slate’s only injury-related pricing mishaps. Jordan Reed is currently being viewed as doubtful for this game, which should thrust Vernon Davis into the starting role. Reed entered last week with recent target counts of 12 // 6 // 6 // 11 // 8 // 5. In the games last year that Davis played without Reed, he saw target counts of 5 // 9 // 11 // 6 // 1 // 2 // 7 // 5 // 3 // 3. The Redskins remain a run-heavy attack, and there is obvious “quality concern” on the targets Davis will see, but he does shape up as the Redskins’ best means of moving the ball against a Jacksonville defense that has been merely average against tight ends this year.

REDSKINS RUN OFFENSE

As we have explored throughout the year, the Jaguars have been one of the better run defenses in football — though last week’s visibly low-effort game against Tennessee calls into question some of the season-long numbers that have backed up this reputation. On the one hand, the Jags were playing on the road last week, on short rest (while they will be playing at home this week with extra rest). On the other hand, the effort the Jaguars put forth on the ground in that game was bad enough that I’d be fine upgrading this matchup if you feel the need to do so. For me, this remains a Spectator Spot regardless, as Adrian Peterson has carried a low floor all season as a heavily yardage-and-touchdown-dependent play. A broken play or a multi-score game is clearly not impossible in this spot…but that is what Peterson will need in order to post a worthwhile score at the running back position.

Behind Peterson, Chris Thompson has mixed in for three carries and five targets each of the last two weeks. He would need a spike in usage or a couple of big plays to matter.

JAGUARS PASS OFFENSE

A bet on the Jaguars’ passing attack is a bet on the Redskins putting up points (which is something to keep in mind if building rosters that make this bet), as this team wants to lean heavily on the run and on solid defense in order to pull off wins — with Cody Kessler throwing the ball only 24 times in the Jags’ 6-0 home win against Indy a couple weeks back, and with Blake Bortles throwing 23 and 18 passes in the previous two weeks.

Taking away last week’s pass-heavy outlier, recent target counts on the Jags look like this:

:: Dede Westbrook — 4 // 4 // 5
:: Donte Moncrief — 2 // 4 // 4
:: D.J. Chark — 5 // DNP // DNP
:: Keelan Cole — 0 // 2 // 2

If betting on a spike in passing volume for the Jags, the best bet from a route-running and hands perspective is Westbrook — though this offense has shown us all year that target projections among these guys are an iffy week-to-week proposition, making this a guess-and-hope spot if you choose to bet on a back-and-forth affair.

JAGUARS RUN OFFENSE

Washington has been average against the run this year, ranking 17th in yards allowed per carry while ranking middle of the pack in both rushing and receiving yards allowed to the position. The Redskins have shown an ability to clamp down on the run from time to time against one-dimensional offenses, which creates slim concern for Leonard Fournette — though the workload expectations in this spot should keep his value afloat. Taking away the game in which he got tossed for fighting (21 touches in that game through three quarters before being sent to the showers), Fournette has touch counts since returning from injury of 29 // 30 // 16. The 16 touches, of course, came in last week’s blowout loss, where Fournette still played 55 of a possible 71 snaps, good for his largest snap share since returning. Working against Fournette are an offense that is telegraphing intentions and a pass game role that is low on creativity. Working in Fournette’s favor is the likely old-school nature of this game, with both teams looking to lean on the run in what projects to be a low-scoring affair. It won’t be a surprise if Fournette fails to produce at a level commensurate with his lofty price tag (giving him a lower-than-lovely floor), but he also has the locked-in usage and multi-touchdown role to turn into one of the better plays on the slate if things go right.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I can see the merit to playing Josh Johnson this week, though there are obviously quarterbacks I prefer more. He’s a risk/reward play, with a non-awful shot at 20+ points, but with a roster-wrecking floor if things go poorly in this spot. Quarterback is typically good for guaranteed points from most viable players, so I likely won’t take the risk myself. Elsewhere on the Redskins, Vernon Davis stands out as one of the only remotely appealing low-priced tight ends, though he still carries risk of a low-production game — on the road, with a fourth-string quarterback, in a broken offense.

On the Jags’ side of the ball, it’s Fournette and no one else for me. Fournette would be more attractive with a better, more creatively-schemed offense (I never thought I would say this, but: I wish the Jags would take a page out of the Cowboys’ book — figuring out ways to get Fournette into space in the same way the Cowboys have been using Zeke lately), but the usage keeps his floor fairly solid, while his upside is notable. The last four run defenses that Fournette has faced all rank 13th or better in DVOA. Washington ranks 25th.

Outside of these pieces, I won’t be looking anywhere on these offenses myself. Even with such a strange and ugly slate on tap, there are safer, higher-upside spots than this.

CARDINALS // FALCONS OVERVIEW

The birds of Arizona and the birds of Georgia are each wrapping up a disappointing season, with Arizona stumbling to a 3-10 record behind a season full of poor offensive play, and with Atlanta surprising themselves and the rest of the league with a 4-9 record and a five-game losing streak behind a season full of injuries, bad defense, and poor offensive play. This game offers quite a bit of name value, but guaranteed production remains thin in this spot. Atlanta opened as 10.0 point favorites at home before dropping to -8.5 early in the week. This game carries a “Week 15 standard” Over/Under of 44.0.

CARDINALS PASS OFFENSE

Matchup is not an issue for the Cardinals this week, against an Atlanta team that has allowed a 5.6% increase on the league-average catch rate while ranking 21st in yards allowed per pass attempt. With the Falcons also ranked 27th in the NFL in sacks, Josh Rosen should be able to operate with a mostly-clean pocket, perhaps enhancing his ability to make the throws he needs to make. Of greater concern for this offense is its lack of weapons and its season-long struggles. Last week against a Detroit defense that is one of the few units more inept than the Falcons, it took Rosen 41 pass attempts to secure 240 yards through the air. He threw zero touchdown passes and gifted a pick-six to Darius Slay. Heading into that game, Rosen had thrown the ball 26 or fewer times in three straight games — and with this matchup setting up well for the Cardinals’ ground game, we should expect this team to limit passing volume for as long as they can.

The last man standing among NFL-caliber weapons in this passing attack is Larry Fitzgerald, who saw target counts in the Cardinals’ lower-volume games of 4 // 2 // 6 before spiking to nine targets last week. Fitz and Rosen have connected on only 60.5% of their looks this year, with Fitz averaging only 10.8 yards per catch — leaving him as a “bet on broken play or touchdown” option. While scoring expectations for this team as a whole are low, Fitz is the best bet to find the end zone among the Cardinals’ wide receivers, leaving him as a non-exciting, but non-awful play.

Chad Williams is expected to return to the field this week on the perimeter, where he will likely eat into the snaps of both J.J. Nelson and Trent Sherfield, with all three guys seeing time on the field. Last week, Nelson played 48 snaps and saw seven targets, while Sherfield played 65 snaps and saw seven targets. All three of these guys would be guess-and-hope plays in a broken, low-volume attack — with a quarterback who has averaged only 6.1 yards per pass attempt on the year.

This “attack” wraps up with Ricky Seals-Jones, who has turned his 13 targets across the last four weeks into six catches for 51 yards. Ouch.

CARDINALS RUN OFFENSE

Atlanta has been one of the easiest teams in the NFL to run on, ranking 31st in run defense DVOA and 30th in yards allowed per carry. Only 10 teams have allowed more rushing yards to running backs. Only two teams have allowed more receiving yards. No team has allowed more receptions.

This is a good spot for David Johnson, who is playing through a lost season behind an offensive line that ranks 20th in adjusted line yards, on an offense that ranks dead last in time of possession. Across his last three games, DJ has touched the ball 26 // 19 // 21 // 23 times. His 12 catches across his last four games have led to only 48 total receiving yards, which tells you a lot of what you need to know about the low-upside nature of touches in this offense, while DJ’s multi-touchdown upside is held in check by this team’s inability to sustain drives or put points on the board. He remains a high-variance play at his price tag, but his chances of hitting in this matchup are higher than normal.

It should also be noted that DJ missed practice on Wednesday. As of this writeup, Steve Wilks expects him to play — though if he were to miss, Chase Edmonds would provide cheap exposure to an every-down role in a really good matchup. He would obviously become extremely popular, but he would also provide strong point-per-dollar production while opening up salary for other spots on the slate.

FALCONS PASS OFFENSE

The Cardinals have been one of the tougher teams in the league against the pass, forcing the shallowest aDOT in the NFL and allowing the second fewest pass plays of 20+ yards. This team allows a 4% increase on the league-average catch rate — which allows wide receivers to rack up PPR points at times on short-area throws — but upside has been tough to come by in this spot, with Arizona ranked fifth in yards allowed per pass attempt while allowing the third fewest passing touchdowns in the league.

This spot is further complicated by the recent deployment of Patrick Peterson, with Arizona moving him around the formation in shadow coverage on the perimeter, creating a tough spot for Julio Jones on the 79% of snaps he runs on the outside. As one of the premier athletes and route-runners at the wide receiver position, Julio has a chance to win in any matchup, but Peterson continues to be one of the most lockdown forces in the NFL, with only 46 passes thrown into his coverage all season, and with a 54.3% completion rate and a 69.0 quarterback rating allowed on the year. Peterson has yet to allow more than 55 receiving yards in a game this year on passes thrown into his coverage. Julio will have to win a tough matchup here or take advantage of his opportunities away from Peterson. Working in his favor is this game’s domed environment and the highest percentage share of team air yards in the league. Julio will almost certainly see his nine-plus targets — keeping his ceiling intact, in spite of the lower-than-normal floor.

This passing attack has failed to get anything going behind Julio for weeks now, with Calvin Ridley cracking 50 yards only twice in his last nine games, and with Mohamed Sanu cracking 60 yards only twice all season. Barring an unlikely back-and-forth game, both of these guys remain “bet on a broken play or touchdown” options. Ridley has produced five useful games on the year and is the best bet for production, while either guy could see a small bump in usage if Peterson slows down Julio. In this broken attack, against a solid-across-the-board defense, each guy still carries a low floor.

At the back end of this passing attack is Austin Hooper, who sat out practice Wednesday with a knee issue and has topped 60 yards only two times all season. The Cardinals have allowed the eighth fewest yards to the tight end position, creating a tough spot for Hooper. He remains what he has been for most of the year: a modest floor option at tight end, with ceiling merely a guessing game.

FALCONS RUN OFFENSE

The Falcons have been atrocious on the ground this season, ranking 29th in run offense DVOA and 31st in yards per carry. Tevin Coleman has not topped 11 touches in four consecutive games, while Ito Smith has recent touch counts of 8 // 6 // 8 // 14. Smith has posted zero usable DFS scores this season. Coleman has posted three usable scores through the first 13 games of the year. Last week, these two split snaps almost exactly down the middle, with Smith playing 32 and Coleman playing 33.

Of course, the matchup introduces some slim appeal, as Arizona has faced the most running back rush attempts in the NFL, and as a result has allowed the most rushing yards and the most rushing touchdowns to the position. The Falcons prefer to lean pass-heavy (Coleman has not topped 13 carries since Week 4; Smith has not topped 11 carries all year), and this unit as a whole is downright bad; but either of these guys could be considered as low-floor options, with slim yardage-and-touchdown upside giving them an outside shot at mattering on this slate.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

From a “certainty” perspective, there is not a lot to like in this game (beyond the “certainty” that this is one of the last three games Steve Sarkisian will be coaching for the Falcons). The passing attack for the Falcons is in a tough spot, while their run offense has been too poor to depend on for guaranteed points. And the Cardinals’ entire offense has been too self-sabotaging for us to a assume that a good matchup will automatically yield good production (see: the Cardinals’ games in the last four weeks against the Lions and the Raiders).

From an “upside” perspective, however (i.e., if you are willing to leave floor alone), Matt Ryan to Julio is always theoretically in play — even in a tough matchup — while one of the Falcons’ backs could post a solid game in a matchup that tilts their way. The ancillary pieces on the Falcons’ passing attack could also be considered for low-floor upside.

On the Cardinals’ side, DJ has a better-than-normal shot at a strong game (which doesn’t guarantee production in this offense, but it does keep him in the conversation this week), while Fitz could be considered as a “solid floor, with touchdown upside” option at the lower ends of the price range. I’ll be leaving the rest of the Cardinals’ offense alone, but it’s not exactly crazy to think you could take a shot on one of the other wide receivers here and come away with points. If taking plays like that, it is obviously recommended that you fill out the rest of your roster with “Certainty” pieces, but there is a non-zero chance that one of these guys hits.

LIONS // BILLS OVERVIEW

The boring, horizontal-oriented Lions will travel to Buffalo this week to take on the exciting, vertical-oriented Bills. Neither of these teams has been particularly good this year, but both teams have continued to play hard, and each team has continued to improve as the season has moved along. With the Bills sitting at 4-9 and the Lions sitting at 5-8, this is the sort of game we would be ignoring at this point in the year if not for fantasy — and with an Over/Under of 39.5, there is a good chance that many DFSers will be ignoring it as well. It seems I am not the only one who has been watching this Bills team lately, however, as this line opened at 38.0 with the game set as a pick ’em before rising to 39.5 and Bills -2.5. This early-week movement has pushed the Bills’ Vegas-implied total from 19.0 to 21.0, while the Lions have dropped from 19.0 to 18.5.

LIONS OFFENSE

The Bills have boasted one of the top pass defenses in the NFL this year, knocking 8.6% off the league-average aDOT and another 2.1% off the league-average catch rate. They have been especially tough on wide receivers, allowing the fewest yards in the NFL to the position. No team has allowed fewer passing yards than the Bills (it’s not particularly close). Only six teams have allowed fewer passing touchdowns.

Since the Lions traded Golden Tate and lost Marvin Jones, this passing attack has struggled to get anything going downfield, with Matthew Stafford notching recent yardage totals of 220 // 236 // 245 // 101. With stud corner Tre’Davious White sure to trail Kenny Golladay this week, Stafford will be left leaning on Bruce Ellington — with some shabby collection of T.J. Jones, Andy Jones, and perhaps Brandon Powell filling in if Ellington (hamstring) can’t go. Before Ellington took over the slot role, Theo Riddick also filled in for a large chunk of slot duties, which we will likely see again. This slot role has yielded almost no yardage upside, of course, leaving whichever guy plays as little more than a hope-to-get-lucky option.

With Kerryon Johnson looking set to miss yet another game, the early-down work on this offense will go to LeGarrette Blount and Zach Zenner. Incredibly, Blount saw 14 touches on only 19 snaps last week, while Zenner saw 12 touches on only 16 snaps (because, you know, defenses can’t figure out stuff like that). The Bills have allowed the eighth fewest yards per carry in the NFL, making both of these guys low-floor, modest-ceiling plays.

BILLS PASS OFFENSE

If you have not been watching this Bills offense the last few weeks, you have been missing out on one of the most ridiculously fun units in the league (last week, Zay Jones and Josh Allen just missed hooking up on a touchdown pass…with Zay throwing the ball — in the first half, of a regular season game). If you have NFL Game Pass, I encourage you to queue up the condensed games from the last two weeks to get a feel for this thing of beauty. If you don’t have NFL Game Pass, at least go watch the highlights from the last two weeks. This offense is aggressive and tremendously well-designed — and even with a raw rookie quarterback and a group of young pass catchers that dropped six passes last week, the Bills have been able to produce consistently high point-per-dollar scores since Allen returned from his multi-week absence. This week, the Bills’ passing attack catches a date with a Detroit unit that ranks 31st in DVOA and has stuffed the run repeatedly since acquiring Snacks Harrison partway through the season — leading teams to prefer attacking through the air. Recent quarterback stat lines against the Lions look like this:

:: Jared Goff — 17 of 33 // 207 yards // one touchdown and one interception
:: Chase Daniel — 27 of 37 // 230 yards // two touchdowns
:: Cam Newton — 25 of 37 // 357 yards // three touchdowns and one interception
:: Mitchell Trubisky — 23 of 30 // 355 yards // three touchdowns

The Lions also allowed Josh Rosen to notch his second highest completion rate and his second highest yardage total of the season last week. The Lions have allowed the deepest aDOT in the NFL this year, which sets up well for Allen and his incredible, league-leading average intended air yards of 11.1. The Lions also allow a 2.5% increase on the league-average catch rate. Only three teams are allowing more yards per pass attempt.

This spot is improved for Allen and co. by the Lions’ blend of defensive looks — as they mix and match a soft man coverage that will leave them susceptible to the Bills’ speed, a soft zone coverage that will leave them susceptible to both the speed and the misdirection of this team, and a tight man coverage that will leave them susceptible to Allen’s rushing ability (99 or more rushing yards in an incredible three consecutive games). On the year, the Lions have allowed the fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks — in spite of matchups so far against Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Mitchell Trubisky, and Cam Newton — while only one team has faced fewer quarterback rush attempts. Only three of Allen’s nine rush attempts last week came on designed runs, as he dropped back to pass a whopping 50 times. After LeSean McCoy went down last week, the Bills limited their running back rush attempts — moving to more empty sets instead of telegraphing intentions with Chris Ivory and his limited pass game role. All of this is important, as the Lions allow the fewest plays per game in the NFL, and the Bills are likely to run at least 10 fewer plays than the 76 they ran last week. Somewhere in the range of 30 to 35 pass attempts and five to eight runs should still be a strong bet for Allen this week.

In the Bills’ first game without Kelvin Benjamin, Robert Foster played 73 out of 76 snaps (four more than Zay Jones), running 48 pass routes (to 46 for Zay) and seeing eight targets (to nine for Zay). Zay dropped three more passes (including an end zone look) while Foster caught seven of the eight balls that came his way. As a downfield threat with 4.34 speed, Foster carries plenty of upside in this offense. He’s a do-the-little-things-right wide receiver who followed O.C. Brian Daboll to Buffalo from Alabama as an undrafted free agent. He carries the volatility attached to this truly raw offense, but his ceiling remains exciting.

Zay has recent target counts of 11 // 1 // 9 // 9 (with the one-target game coming against Jalen Ramsey and the Jags). He has hauled in 50% of these passes and should continue seeing looks, with a low floor and a high ceiling. Zay is likeliest to be shadowed by Darius Slay, though he should be able to work away from this matchup from time to time. Slay has been merely average this year, while the rest of the Lions’ corners have been bad.

This passing attack wraps up with Isaiah McKenzie, who ran only three fewer pass routes than Zay last week and only five fewer than Foster. McKenzie has operated in the short and intermediate areas of the field so far, and he has added nine carries across his last four games (including four last week with McCoy sidelined). This disciplined (and unaggressive) Lions defense has unsurprisingly allowed the fifth fewest wide receiver rushing yards in the league, so McKenzie will likely need a touchdown or a broken play in order to add some ceiling to the modest floor that his four to seven targets will provide.

BILLS RUN OFFENSE

The Bills’ run offense, of course, is far less exciting than their passing attack, with McCoy looking unlikely to suit up this week. Run-first back Chris Ivory will take on the stout Lions run defense, while pass-first back Marcus Murphy will likely see limited looks in this downfield attack. Allen turns the ball over often enough and makes enough WTF decisions that the Lions should be able to stay in this game — and as long as it remains a one- or two-score contest, the Bills will likely lean toward the pass. This limits volume projections in the Bills’ backfield, requiring these guys to post outlier production in order to matter.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Josh Allen is like one of those poker players who goes all-in far too often — unleashing downfield throws into the waiting arms of defenders whenever he’s gone a few plays without a big strike — and his ball security while running is an issue as well (as is his health, for that matter). But Allen’s backyard mentality is also leading to lots of opportunities for big plays, making this entire attack a risk/reward unit. This offense will likely post at least one more dud down the stretch, but it will also likely post one more solid game and one absolute gem. This will continue to be one of my favorite tourney offenses for the upside this team carries.

If for some reason you are set on going to the Lions on the other side of this matchup, your best bet for upside is Golladay — hoping he wins in this difficult matchup for a big play or a couple of touchdowns.

PACKERS // BEARS OVERVIEW

When the schedule was set at the start of the year, this game looked like an opportunity for an up-and-coming Bears team to potentially play the role of spoiler against the Rodgers-led Packers — but 14 weeks into the season, the story has changed, with the coach-fired, 5-7-1 Packers traveling to take on a division-leading, 9-4 Bears team fresh off a primetime win over the 11-2 Rams. The Packers have posted a 5-1-1 record at home this year while incredibly going 0-6 on the road. The Bears are 6-1 at Soldier Field, where they are currently installed as 6.0 point favorites. This game opened with an Over/Under of 46.5 before being bet down to 45.0. Both of these offenses have explosive upside, but the likeliest outcome for this game is a tightly-contested, modest-scoring affair.

PACKERS PASS OFFENSE

Chicago continues to play elite pass defense this year, shaving 5% off both the league-average catch rate and aDOT, while shaving 7.5% off the league-average YAC/R rate. The Bears lead the NFL in interceptions and rank fourth in sacks. Only the Ravens are allowing fewer yards per pass attempt than the Bears. No team has allowed a lower quarterback rating.

While the Bears have been elite against the pass as a whole — constantly making life difficult on quarterbacks and limiting production with the 10th fewest passing yards allowed per game — they have been more attackable with wide receivers than most probably realize. The Bears have allowed the ninth fewest receiving yards to running backs and the sixth fewest receiving yards to tight ends, but only seven teams have allowed more yards to wideouts than the Bears this year, while they have allowed the fourth most wide receiver catches in the league. These yards and catches have come with a low 61.7% catch rate, but with Chicago destroying teams on the ground and limiting aerial production to running backs and tight ends, opponents are generally forced to lean on wide receivers in this matchup. This has allowed the Bears’ aggressive unit to pick off 25 passes and score six defensive touchdowns, but it has also led to a few notable, volume-based wide receiver stat lines, including:

:: Kenny Golladay — 5-90-0 on eight targets
:: Stefon Diggs — 13-126-1 on 18 targets
:: Kenny Golladay — 6-78-1 on 13 targets
:: Josh Gordon — 4-100-0 on seven targets
:: Albert Wilson — 6-155-2 on nine targets
:: DeSean Jackson — 5-112-0 on eight targets
:: Christian Kirk — 7-90-0 on eight targets
:: Davante Adams — 5-88-1 on eight targets
:: Randall Cobb — 9-142-1 on 10 targets

Adams is the undisputed alpha in this attack, with recent target counts of 12 // 8 // 13 // 11. He has topped 100 yards only once in his last six games, but he should be able to approach a floor of around 6-70-0 in this spot, and his wide receiver leading 12 touchdowns on the year will keep his upside intact. A monster game is obviously not the likeliest scenario in this spot, but his usage provides a solid floor, and the upside remains intact.

Behind Adams, this passing attack has become nothing more than low-volume dart throws, with Cobb unsurprisingly failing to top even 43 yards since his Week 1 explosion against the Bears, and with Equanimeous St. Brown (34 snaps last week) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (30 snaps last week) now splitting time at the lightly-used number three receiver spot for this squad. With Jimmy Graham providing almost no upside across the last couple months and taking on one of the most difficult tight end matchups in the league, this passing attack is simply guessing and hoping behind alpha Adams.

PACKERS RUN OFFENSE

This is a tremendously difficult spot for the Packers’ run offense, against a Bears defense that has stomped out enemy attacks this year — shaving almost 17% off the league-average yards per carry, while allowing the second fewest running back touchdowns in the league. Only four teams have allowed fewer rushing yards to the position. Only eight teams have allowed fewer receiving yards.

If choosing to attack this difficult matchup, your best bet is Aaron Jones, who did not quite see the expected workload spike with Mike McCarthy’s departure (Jones played 42 snaps to 24 for Jamaal Williams), but who did touch the ball 20 times — the second time in the last three weeks in which this has been the case. Jones has not topped 110 scrimmage yards in any of his last four games, but he does have seven touchdowns across his last five contests, giving him some sneaky upside in this spot. He should see enough usage to provide a floor of around 60 to 80 total yards (with three to five receptions in five straight games), and a broken play or a multi-touchdown game would make him a strong play at low ownership. This is a low-floor play, but there are non-invisible paths to upside.

BEARS PASS OFFENSE

The Packers’ pass defense — behind stud rookie corner Jaire Alexander — has been quietly above-average this year, shaving 3.6% off the league-average catch rate and allowing the eighth fewest passing yards in the league. With that said: the Packers have allowed the second most wide receiver touchdowns in the league, and they have lost wars-of-attrition against receivers who see heavy volume — with Julio Jones (11 targets), Adam Thielen (nine targets), Josh Gordon (nine targets), Kenny Golladay (nine targets), Adam Thielen again (13 targets), and Stefon Diggs (13 targets) all going for 98 or more yards against them. For what it’s worth: with the exception of speed threat Marquise Goodwin, every wide receiver this year who has seen eight or fewer targets against the Packers has failed to top even 75 yards. On the spread-the-wealth passing attack of the Bears, this should be considered a below-average, but not impossible spot.

Recent target counts on the Bears with Mitchell Trubisky under center have looked like this:

:: Allen Robinson — DNP // DNP // 8 // 7 // 8
:: Anthony Miller — 7 // 6 // 6 // 3 // 1
:: Taylor Gabriel — 6 // 5 // 3 // 9 // 7
:: Trey Burton — 4 // 3 // 4 // 1 // 5

Trubisky has not topped 31 pass attempts in any of his last five games, and this team is dialing up almost no passes beyond the intermediate areas of the field, making all of these guys thin from an “upside” perspective. With a narrow and predictable group of utilized players, however, there is some thin hope-to-guess-right appeal on this unit. Robinson is the likeliest bet for solid yardage production and a multi-touchdown game; he’ll see the most of Alexander’s coverage, but his role is more consistent than anyone else on this team. Miller and Gabriel are guys who can be bet on for a broken play or a touchdown. Burton will be taking on a Packers defense that has allowed the sixth fewest tight end receptions in the league.

BEARS RUN OFFENSE

The Packers have been perfectly average against the run this year — ranking 19th in yards allowed per carry — but with this team inviting opponents to attack on the ground, they have faced the ninth most rush attempts in the league, which has led to them allowing the 10th most running back rushing yards. This is not a great spot for Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen, but it is not a bad spot either, and this backfield should see at least a small boost in volume along the way.

In last week’s win over the Rams, Howard topped 82 rushing yards for the first time all year — going for 101 yards against a defense that ranks dead last in yards allowed per carry. As he has shown us all year: Howard is a yardage-and-touchdown back who rarely piles up big yardage — though at his basement-level price, he always has a shot at providing some value with a multi-touchdown game.

Cohen is the more explosive component of this backfield, though his touches are never exactly assured, with recent touch totals of 6 // 7 // 13 // 10 // 10 // 20 // 13. His 20 touches came in a dump-off-heavy game with Chase Daniel under center, and that type of volume can only be chased-and-hoped-for in this spot (rather than being predictable). His likeliest range here is another 10 to 13 touches — giving him the big per-play upside he carries on these looks, but keeping his floor low along the way.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

The Bears are a tourney-focused play for me, as this offense still ranks seventh in the league in points per game even with a recent dip in production, and the Bears’ ability to create turnovers (combined with Trubisky’s ability to pick up yards on the ground) always creates opportunities for this unit to pop off the page. From a pure projections perspective, the floor is fairly low across the board on this offense — taking these guys out of the “core play” discussion for me — but the ceiling on this group makes it a stackable team if multi-entering, in the hopes that you can capture one of their blowup games.

On the Packers’ side, it’s Davante Adams and nothing else for me — with Adams certainly not a standout play on the road against a tough defense, but still very clearly in the high-priced receiver conversation given his big role and his touchdown upside. Behind Adams, I won’t be trying to guess on this passing attack myself. The same goes for the Packers’ rushing attack — with Aaron Jones carrying some clear paths to upside, but taking on too little floor for me to be interested myself.

BUCCANEERS // RAVENS OVERVIEW

The Ravens’ stretch of 3-1 play has come with wins against the 5-8 Bengals, the 3-10 Raiders, and the 4-9 Falcons, and with a loss to the 11-2 Chiefs. Incredibly, each of these four teams ranks bottom seven in defensive DVOA. Even more incredibly, Baltimore has yet another matchup this week against a team that ranks bottom seven in DVOA, vs the 5-8 Buccaneers. As for the Bucs: they will have their toughest test in a while, on the road against a Ravens defense that ranks second in DVOA, and that has allowed the fewest points and the second fewest yards in the league. This game is a microcosm of what this strange slate offers, with the attractive offense going on the road for an extremely difficult matchup, and with the less attractive offense pulling the better matchup. This game opened with an Over/Under of 47.0, with the Ravens installed as 8.5 point favorites. As of this writing, the Ravens are tied with the Patriots for the highest Vegas-implied team total on the Main Slate — though as you will see in a moment, this does not guarantee that there will be much for us to comfortably target in this spot.

RAVENS OFFENSE

Lamar Jackson is going to maintain the starting job for this team for at least another week, though there is obviously a chance that Joe Flacco mixes in for a few passes in this game. Jackson has made easy throws look difficult since ascending to the starting job — leading to fewer than 180 passing yards in all four of his starts. Boosting Jackson’s isolated DFS appeal is a huge role in the run game — with 70+ yards on the ground in all four of his starts, and with almost all of his rushing yards coming on designed runs (as opposed to quarterback scrambles). This is a valuable note, as schemed runs introduce less volatility than scramble runs (like the kind Josh Allen has been getting lately), as schemed runs tend to be called as part of the rotation of plays week in and week out in an offense like this. With the threat of Flacco taking away some passes, and with Jackson’s poor to-date performance through the air, he carries some floor concerns, but his likeliest scenario is another game in the serviceable range in which he has recently landed.

Of course, the passing yardage totals for Jackson of 150 // 178 // 125 // 147 (with three total passing touchdowns across his four starts) have left his pass catchers completely unusable beyond simply guessing and hoping — especially as this team continues to spread the ball around, with Michael Crabtree notching three straight games of only four to six targets and John Brown notching three straight games of only four to seven targets. Behind these two, Willie Snead has gone 8 // 0 // 3 // 7 in Jackson’s four starts, while the four-man tight end rotation on this team continues to split targets. Through Jackson’s four starts, not one pass catcher on the Ravens has posted a usable score.

This run-heavy offense has a good matchup on the ground against a Bucs team that has been decked by running backs lately, though the Ravens are also sapping fantasy value in this spot by rotating work among three guys — with Gus Edwards seeing 16 carries last week, Kenneth Dixon seeing eight carries and one reception, and Ty Montgomery seeing two carries and one catch of his own. Gus Gus has zero catches in his four games in the starting role, making him extremely yardage-and-touchdown dependent. Dixon looked good on his limited touches last week, and the Ravens’ coaching staff talked up their desire to get him more involved, which could turn this into a true, split-down-the-middle backfield (with Montgomery taking on a few touches of his own). A multi-touchdown game or a couple of busted plays are your best bet for production from this Ravens backfield.

BUCCANEERS OFFENSE

The Bucs enter a tough spot this week against a Ravens defense that has been one of the places where offenses go to die this year. It is not impossible to pick up yards or put up points against the Ravens, but individual players have consistently topped out at average-at-best fantasy scores against this team, as the Ravens play tight, aggressive defense that does not make it easy for any one player to pile up big volume or yardage (i.e., this is not a “scheme” defense that allows an offensive coordinator to call plays that benefit a particular weapon; instead, this defense plays tight across the board, and the quarterback is often forced to go to whichever guy is the least covered). Here are some notable recent stat lines for wide receivers against the Ravens:

:: Tyreek Hill — 8-139-0
:: Julio Jones — 2-18-0
:: Tyler Boyd — 4-71-0
:: Antonio Brown — 5-42-1
:: JuJu Smith-Schuster — 7-78-0
:: D.J. Moore — 5-90-0
:: Michael Thomas — 7-69-1
:: Corey Davis — 1-24-0
:: Jarvis Landry — 5-69-0
:: Antonio Brown — 5-62-1
:: JuJu Smith-Schuster — 4-60-0

Taking away the Hill game (whose skill set is obviously not represented among the Bucs’ pass catchers), the remaining names on the list give us a good idea of the general production range in which we can expect Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to land — with Julio // A.B. // Thomas // Davis most closely replicating the perimeter-dominant roles that Evans and Godwin carry in this offense. Either guy would need a lot of things to go right in order to post a score you have to have in order to win this week, against a Baltimore unit that has allowed the sixth fewest wide receiver catches in spite of facing the 13th most wide receiver targets.

Behind these two, Adam Humphries should be able to soak up his typical 5-50 level of production on underneath passes, with a chance to produce a solid game with a touchdown. Obviously, there are safer places to go than this.

This attack wraps up with Cameron Brate, who has the best matchup of the bunch against a Ravens team that has allowed the fourth most receptions to the tight end position. Working in Brate’s favor is a big end zone role that is locked in place with O.J. Howard on I.R. (a touchdown in Week 12 // a dropped touchdown in Week 13 // two touchdowns in Week 14). Working against Brate are yardage totals of 16 // 26 // 36 // 12 since taking over the starting role, with no games north of three receptions. When he fails to score, he typically fails to do much of anything at all.

Swinging over to the Bucs’ backfield: the Ravens rank fifth in yards allowed per carry, and they have allowed the third fewest rushing yards and the fourth fewest touchdowns to the running back position — a poor setup for a running back in Peyton Barber who relies on yards and touchdowns for his production. Barber will need a multi-touchdown game to make a dent on this slate.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

The Bucs do not stand out at all in this spot — operating as little more than tourney darts with nearly invisible paths to slate-breaking upside. Even at sub-1% ownership, these guys would be tough to pull the trigger on. The guy likeliest to pop for a big point-per-dollar day is Godwin, but I won’t be going there myself.

On the Ravens’ side, there is not a ton to love in spite of the solid likelihood of points for this team, as this offense simply spreads the ball around too much for anyone to be a comfortable floor play — while this offense as a whole has provided almost no ceiling the entire year. To illustrate the extent to which the Ravens spread the ball around, here is a screenshot of the early-season box score between the Ravens and the Steelers, with every player listed who saw a touch or a target. Notice how many names are listed for the Ravens in a typical game, compared to a Steelers team that has one of the most refreshingly narrow workload distributions in the league.

Lamar Jackson is in the conversation at quarterback, but I will otherwise be leaving this offense alone.

SEAHAWKS // 49ERS OVERVIEW

This is not the Seahawks // 49ers matchups of a few years ago, but as we saw last week against the formerly playoff-situated Broncos: this 49ers team continues to play hard right now, while the 8-5 Seahawks (winners of four straight) have been one of the hottest teams in the NFL. Both teams prefer to lean on the ground, which will shorten this game to an extent — but each offense is also capable of moving the field and putting up points, creating some interesting opportunities for DFS production on the only late game on the Main Slate besides the Patriots at the Steelers. After the Seahawks’ 43-16 win in Seattle a couple weeks ago, this game in Santa Clara has been awarded an Over/Under of 44.0, with the visiting Seahawks installed as slim 3.5 point favorites.

SEAHAWKS OFFENSE

In spite of ranking ninth in the NFL in points per game and ninth in offensive DVOA, the Seahawks have been one of the least-useful DFS offenses in the NFL, with a passing attack that has not topped even 20 pass attempts in back-to-back weeks (while topping 26 pass attempts only three times in their last 11 games), and with a rushing attack that spreads around the work with limited pass game involvement. This yardage-and-touchdown backfield has contributed only four individual efforts all season of 100 yards and a touchdown — with Chris Carson notching two such games, Rashaad Penny notching one such game, and Mike Davis notching one such game.

If you are wanting to visit this rushing attack, the best bet lately has been Carson, who has recent touch counts of 17 // 18 // 17 // 22, with recent yards-from-scrimmage totals of 83 // 63 // 108 // 90. Carson has piled up six catches and three touchdowns across this four-game stretch — and while it will take a multi-score game and/or a couple of busted plays for him to provide more than serviceable value, this team’s commitment to the ground game has kept his floor relatively high most weeks.

Davis has seen his role shrink lately, with exactly four touches in three consecutive games, while Penny has stepped up for recent touch counts of 8 // 4 // 7 // 8. Penny caught four passes in Week 1 and has hauled in only two total receptions since then. If he misses this game with his knee issue, Davis projects to step into around eight to 12 touches of his own. The 49ers have ranked top 10 in yards allowed per carry, but they are ultimately a middling matchup on the ground.

While the Seahawks have limited passing volume more than any team in the league, they do at least have a narrow distribution of work, with recent target counts among Seattle wide receivers looking like this:

:: Tyler Lockett — 6 // 5 // 5 // 2 // 6
:: Doug Baldwin — 5 // 10 // 7 // 4 // DNP
:: David Moore — 3 // 8 // 5 // 1 // 5

The Seahawks easily handled the 49ers at home in Week 13, which led to only 17 pass attempts from Russ — but if the 49ers are able to keep this game closer at home, somewhere in the range of 22 to 29 pass attempts would not be a crazy expectation. If you want to make this bet, there will be room for all three of these pass catchers to see around five targets, with room for one or two of them to move up to seven or eight looks. The 49ers present a slightly below-average matchup for wide receivers, with a 61.3% catch rate allowed to the position this year, and with a middling number of yards and receptions given up — though no team in the NFL has allowed more wide receiver touchdowns, which increases the upside a bit on this offense that prefers to throw when they get close to the end zone (17th in the NFL in rushing touchdowns; fifth in passing touchdowns). Consider all three of Lockett, Baldwin, and Moore to be low-floor plays with touchdown-driven ceilings in this highly efficient attack. Red zone targets on this team go Baldwin :: 9 // Moore :: 8 // Lockett :: 6 — though Lockett has six touchdowns from outside the red zone, keeping his ceiling intact. Moore sees plenty of “upside” looks, but as he has shown the last two weeks, his floor is absolutely zero. Baldwin sees the least downfield work on this team, but he’ll have an outside shot at seven to nine targets if healthy this week. If Baldwin misses, Lockett and Moore will each see a little more work.

49ERS RUN OFFENSE

In spite of a last-in-the-NFL 3-10 record that has had the 49ers constantly playing from behind, this team ranks 10th in the NFL in rush play rate, as they have been playing with backup quarterbacks and a decimated wide receiver corps all season, and they boast one of the more well-designed rushing attacks in the league. This creates a good setup in this spot against a Seattle team that ranks 29th in yards allowed per carry and 19th in DVOA against the run.

Of course, the flip side of this matchup is that the Seahawks control the clock as well as any team in the NFL — which has led to them facing the second fewest opponent plays per game, and has led to them allowing the eighth fewest running back rushing yards this season. On the year, the Seahawks have faced a stunningly low 18.4 running back rush attempts per game.

If the Matt Breida (perpetual ankle issues) misses this week, the backfield will belong to Jeff Wilson, who played 62 of a possible 72 snaps last week — far ahead of phased-out Alfred Morris (four snaps). When these teams last met, Wilson saw an uncharacteristic-for-this-offense nine targets with the 49ers climbing out of a deep hole — hauling in eight catches for 73 yards. A more comfortable range for him this week would be three to five looks through the air, though 15+ carries and three to five targets would have definite potential to provide value in this matchup. He is the clear alpha in this attack if Breida misses.

If Breida plays, all bets are off, as we should see a split workload between these two backs. The best bet would be to hope Breida plays limited snaps and Wilson continues to hog the bulk of the work.

49ERS PASS OFFENSE

There are only two teams in the NFL that are allowing a lower average depth of target than the Seahawks’ aggressive, zone-heavy defense — though this does not conflict too much with a 49ers attack that has been more focused on the short areas of the field than any team in the league. The Seahawks are nonthreatening outside of the low aDOT, as they have allowed a 2.5% boost to the league-average catch rate and have allowed a higher YAC/R rate than all but three other teams in football. This last element is where the 49ers will attempt to thrive, as George Kittle ranks second in the entire NFL in YAC per reception, while Dante Pettis ranks fourth in the NFL in YAC/R. It is worth noting that Pettis — on his limited touches this year — has outperformed his xYAC/R by 2.8 yards, with his huge YAC game against the Seahawks two weeks ago artificially inflating his numbers on the year. Kittle, of course, has also outperformed his xYAC/R, but he ranks fourth in the NFL in this category, with Kyle Shanahan looking for ways to get Kittle in open space every week.

Recent target counts on the 49ers have looked like this:

:: Pettis — 6 // 7 // 7 // 7
:: Kittle — 10 // 13 // 9 // 9
:: Kendrick Bourne — 6 // 3 // 7 // 4
:: Marquise Goodwin — 5 // DNP // DNP // 2

Goodwin (24 snaps last week) and Bourne (43 snaps) played clearly behind Pettis (63 snaps) last week, leaving these two as dart throws in this spot.

Pettis has an aDOT of 12.6 and an xYAC/R of 5.7, which should allow him to push for 70+ yards again this week as long as he and Mullens continue to connect on four or five of their typical seven targets. With no games north of seven targets or five catches, a broken play or a touchdown would be nice — but Pettis is involved enough in this offense and is cheap enough across all three sites that he’ll have a strong shot at providing solid price-considered production even without a spiked week.

The toughest matchup in this spot goes to Kittle, who will be taking on a tight end defense that has allowed the second fewest yards to the position. Working in Kittle’s favor is an absolutely locked-in target share, with eight or more targets in six of his last seven games. He’ll likely need to break off a couple more big YAC gains in order to pop in this spot, but the matchup certainly creates some opportunities for him to do so.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

From a floor and ceiling perspective, multi-use backs are too valuable for me to want to chase after one-dimensional players like Carson, Penny, and Davis, which has left me off of these guys most weeks this year. There is enough to like at the running back position this week that I don’t plan to take a shot on these guys myself — though there is a non-zero chance that these guys become useful this week, if you want to chase yourself. I also don’t expect to take shots on the low-volume passing attack of the Seahawks, but it is worth noting that this unit as a whole carries enough upside that it can be targeted in tourneys — running out Naked Russ, or pairing Russ with one or two of his pass catchers. The low guaranteed volume on this attack creates a lower-than-lovely floor, but this unit has hit often enough that it won’t be a surprise if they hit again.

On the 49ers’ side, Wilson is surprisingly attractive after playing 86% of the snaps last week and handling 88.9% of the running back touches. While Seattle has limited running back touches, the average game against them has still yielded 18.4 carries and 6.1 catches; if Wilson can see 20 to 22 touches on this run-heavy team — with three or four catches sprinkled in — he could prove useful. Obviously, this play is contingent on Breida’s health this week.

From a price-considered standpoint, I actually like the 49ers passing attack a decent amount as well, as Nick Mullens has provided strong value in three of his five starts so far this year — and those three games just so happen to have been the three that came against bottom-tier YAC-prevention teams (Oakland ranks dead last in YAC/R allowed // Denver ranks 30th in YAC/R allowed // Seattle ranks 29th). This short-area attack can produce yards against teams that allow YAC, making Mullens (along with Pettis and Kittle) modest-floor, solid-upside pieces this week.

PATRIOTS // STEELERS OVERVIEW

A few weeks ago, this game looked like a potential battle for home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, but with the Steelers stumbling to three straight losses and the Patriots going 2-2 across their last four games, this matchup suddenly takes on more desperate significance for each squad. With the Chiefs’ Thursday night loss this week, the Patriots can still clinch home field by winning out and hoping for a Kansas City loss in Seattle next week — but they can also lose their first round bye if they lose this game, and if the Texans win their final three. As for the Steelers: A fourth straight loss will put them at risk of falling out of the division lead altogether in the AFC North, with the 7-6 Ravens hot on their tails. A first-round bye is likely out reach at this point for the 7-5-1 Steelers, but a win here will keep them on track for a home game in the first round of the playoffs. This game opened with a modest Over/Under of 49.5 and was quickly bet up to 52.0. The Patriots opened as 1.5 point favorites on the road and currently sit at -2.5.

PATRIOTS PASS OFFENSE

Bear with me for a second.

In Week 12, the Broncos played the Steelers, and this was how we started the writeup of the Broncos’ passing attack (this is going somewhere; give it just a moment)…

The Steelers have been one of the tougher pass defenses in football this year, allowing the fourth fewest yards per pass attempt and ranking first in the NFL in sacks. Pittsburgh tries to make life difficult on quarterbacks by getting after them with constant pressure and taking away the short areas of the field — which can be an especially difficult setup for quarterbacks who prefer to throw the ball short, as can be attested to by the struggles in recent weeks of Blake Bortles and Cam Newton in this matchup. This is a poor setup for a quarterback in Case Keenum whose average intended air yards of 7.6 is the ninth lowest mark in the league. Keenum has recent yardage totals of 161 // 262 // 290 // 205.

The best yardage total by a wide receiver against the Steelers since Week 4 was 82 yards for A.J. Green — followed by 73 yards for Mohamed Sanu, 62 yards for Julio Jones, and 62 yards for Tyler Boyd. No other wide receiver against the Steelers has cracked even 60 yards since September.

Since that week, the Steelers have dropped to 10th in yards allowed per pass attempt, with the Broncos, Chargers, and Raiders absolutely hammering this defense over the middle of the field. In Week 12, Keenum connected with Courtland Sutton for only one catch for 14 yards (on four targets) on the perimeter, but he went 5-78-1 to tight ends while going 7-86-1 on a monstrous 12 targets to Emmanuel Sanders. The next week, Rivers went 6-110-1 to his three perimeter/downfield targets, while going 14-148-1 on a monstrous 19 targets to Keenan Allen. Last week, Derek Carr went 9-93-0 on targets to perimeter-primary receivers Jordy Nelson and Marcell Ateman, while flaming this team with 9-145-1 to tight ends and with 5-76-0 (on seven targets) to slot receiver Seth Roberts. On the year, the Steelers rank seventh in DVOA along the deep left sideline and 12th along the deep right sideline, but they rank sixth worst over the deep middle and 14th worst over the short middle. This is a great spot for both Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski, in a game in which the Patriots will have a tougher time looking to James White as an outlet (more on this below), but will be able to load up on targets to Edelman and Gronk against the Steelers’ aggressive pressure. In his games sharing the field with Gronk this year, Edelman has target counts of 9 // 7 // 10 // 5 // 8 // 12. Another eight to 12 targets should be in his range here. Gronk has seen recent target counts of 8 // 7 // 4 // 8. The Steelers have allowed the eighth most yards and the fifth most touchdowns to the tight end position — giving Gronk a decent shot at yardage-and-touchdown upside (to go with the slimmer-than-normal floor he has shown this year).

None of this is to say that Josh Gordon is incapable of succeeding in this spot himself, but he will have the toughest matchup of the bunch against Joe Haden, who has allowed a catch rate of only 58.9% on passes thrown into his coverage, and who has not allowed more than 73 receiving yards in a game this year. He has allowed only three touchdown passes all year and should shadow Gordon for much of this game. Gordon’s floor — with up-and-down target counts (12 // 5 // 3 // 9) and a tough matchup — is not guaranteed, but his ceiling remains intact in the one game on this slate that carries genuine shootout potential.

PATRIOTS RUN OFFENSE

The Steelers’ defense has been above-average against running backs this year across the board, facing the 12th fewest running back rush attempts in the league, allowing a solid 3.84 yards per carry to backs, and impressively allowing the second fewest receiving yards to running backs this year. This sets up poorly for the Patriots’ multi-headed backfield, which uses Sony Michel strictly in a yardage-and-touchdown role (only five catches all season), and which provides value for James White almost exclusively through the air (in games Michel has played, White has more catches than carries). The individual pieces in this backfield have also had their upside compromised by the return of Rex Burkhead (17 snaps last week) and by the recent touchdown binge that fullback James Develin has been on. Last week, Michel and White each played only 33 out of 81 snaps. Working in the favor of these guys is the potential back-and-forth nature of this game. Both can be bet on for yardage-and-touchdown upside (with White sure to be involved in the pass game), and each guy carries enough potential ceiling to matter — though neither carries enough floor right now to be considered safe in this game.

STEELERS PASS OFFENSE

The Patriots have been one of the tougher wide receiver matchups this season, with the second lowest catch rate allowed in the league, and with a YAC/R mark that is 4.8% lower than the league average. This has led to the Patriots ranking eighth in yards allowed per pass attempt while allowing the 12th fewest receiving yards to wideouts. As the Patriots have shown multiple times this year, they are capable of isolating and slowing down top receivers, with notable stat lines against them of:

:: Adam Thielen — 5-28-1
:: Stefon Diggs — 5-49-0
:: Davante Adams — 6-40-1
:: DeAndre Hopkins — 8-78-0

Of course, one side effect of the aggressive, man-heavy approach the Patriots take to coverage is that they can get burned at times as well, both by lesser passing attacks (Kenny Stills went 8-135-1 last week // Corey Davis went 7-125-1 earlier this year), and by the elite receivers that this team is looking to isolate (Tyreek Hill went 7-142-3 in this matchup).

Adding another layer of intrigue to this spot — from a DFS perspective — is the fact that Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster are both priced near the top of the slate, but neither has produced top-of-the-slate scores on a regular basis, with one guy usually popping off at the expense of the other. On the year, JuJu has three slate-breaking scores, but he has also posted four games that would wreck your roster at his price. AB has posted only one wreck-your-roster score (with three or four others that have been borderline in that range), but he has also justified his salary only twice on the year. None of this is to say that these guys have to be avoided, as this is a likely shootout with both guys sure to be heavily involved; but this is to say that it has become a guessing game between the two — and “guessing right” is still no guarantee that a slate-breaking score shows up. Both guys are strong tourney plays for the upside, but neither has produced consistently enough to be considered in cash games.

Behind these guys, Vance McDonald has not topped even 50 yards in seven consecutive games (including several games with strong tight end matchups), though he does carry some low-floor upside against a Patriots team that has allowed the fifth most tight end touchdowns, while ranking middle of the pack in receptions and yards to the position.

Wrapping up this passing attack behind the alpha duo of AB/JuJu is a collection of low-floor, low-ceiling options in Ryan Switzer, James Washington, and Jesse James. These three guys are nothing more than bet-on-broken-play options.

STEELERS RUN OFFENSE

The Patriots have been far below-average against running backs this year, allowing 4.76 yards per carry and the sixth most receiving yards to the position. As always: the Patriots have an ability to tighten up against the run near the goal line, as they are coming off back-to-back seasons of the fewest running back rushing touchdowns allowed, and they have allowed the third fewest this year — but with this team playing such tight coverage against wide receivers and using bigger linebackers who are often unable to hang with running backs in coverage, this team has faced the fourth most running back targets on the year — creating a strong setup for pass-first back Jaylen Samuels, who stepped right into the lead-back role for this team last week, playing 80% of the snaps and touching the ball 18 times. Samuels gave up a scoring look to ground-and-pounder Stevan Ridley, but he also saw one scoring look of his own that he failed to convert — strengthening his upside in this spot. In a likely back-and-forth affair in which the Steelers (number one in the NFL in pass play rate) will almost certainly look to win through the air, Samuels should be locked into another heavy snap share, with somewhere in the range of 10 to 15 carries and five to nine catches a clear expectation. With the Steelers running only 60 plays last week, there is room for Samuels’ role to grow from there. On the season, the Steelers rank fifth in plays per game (66.2), while the fast-paced Patriots have allowed the 12th most plays per game.

As of Thursday, there are still whispers out of Pittsburgh that James Conner could play this week without practicing (if Conner is cleared to play fully, he will — obviously — step right back into his 20 to 25 touch role, and will become one of the higher floor/ceiling backs on the slate), but for now it seems likely that we get at least one more week of Samuels in the lead.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

The Patriots spread the ball around too much to be considered truly “safe” in any week — but with the Steelers doing a great job against pass catching backs and perimeter wideouts (while playing strong run defense along the way), there is a solid chance that both Edelman and Gronk see a spike in work this week, keeping each guy very much in play. Gronk’s floor is lower than the tight ends priced around him, but the ceiling remains intact; Edelman’s chances of popping off for a big game are lower than the wideouts priced around him, but his chances of failing this week are also much lower, making him an intriguing play on a difficult week for guaranteed points. Tom Brady is also a solid option this week, in the type of setup that often leads to the Patriots putting the ball in his hands and letting him win the game for them. Behind these guys, James White, Sony Michel, and Josh Gordon are all in play for their upside in tourneys, though none carry a particularly safe floor this week.

On the Steelers’ side, Samuels unsurprisingly stands out once again — and while his upside may prove to be a bit capped with his smaller ground-game role, it has been proven time and again over the years that this “Steelers #1 RB role” is worth a lot more in salary than Samuels’ current price, as he joins a long list that includes DeAngelo Williams, Fitzgerald Toussaint, and James Conner posting numbers while filling in for Le’Veon Bell.

As for the (rest of the) passing attack of the Steelers: I am a fan of the upside on JuJu and AB, though the price-considered uncertainty may keep me away from them myself. Both guys are very much in play this week, but neither is a lock-and-load option. Vance is a tourney consideration for his upside in this spot — though nothing is certain in his non-guaranteed role. Ben Roethlisberger is very much in play as well, as the Steelers are all but certain to put the ball in his hands, and to allow him to rack up as many points as he can.

EAGLES // RAMS OVERVIEW

This looked like a pretty good game for the playoff race just a couple weeks ago, but now the Eagles have dropped to 6-7 with three losses in their last five games, and much like the Bengals, Broncos, and Redskins before them, their season feels all but over in spite of the fact that they are mathematically still in the hunt. With Carson Wentz (fractured vertebrae) now set to miss this week, the Eagles will need the sort of miracle not seen since…well, since the Eagles in the 2017/2018 playoffs. Even before Wentz was announced out with injury, this game opened with the Rams favored by 9.5, in a game with an Over/Under of 54.0. The game total here has since dropped to 52.5, while the Rams have crept up to -11.0. As always on these Showdown slates: betting on outlier usage or game flow can often be the best shot at profit; but first, let’s dig into what is likeliest to happen in this spot.

EAGLES RUN OFFENSE

What else is new? As we have talked about since the beginning of the season: the Eagles’ backfield is the modern version of the Patriots’ backfield — with usage entirely unpredictable from week to week, and with this team sure to change things up on us as soon as everyone becomes convinced they have a firm grasp on exactly how the work will be distributed. After Josh Adams seemingly took over the lead role in this backfield in Weeks 12 and 13 — as the only back on this team to see 20+ touches all year — he found his way onto the field for only 21 snaps in Week 14, touching the ball seven total times. In fact, this backfield as a whole saw only 13 total touches — with Corey Clement touching the ball once, Wendell Smallwood touching the ball once, and Darren Sproles touching the ball four times.

This week, the Eagles will take on a Rams defense that ranks dead last in yards allowed per carry — though there are two elements to consider in trying to guess how the workload distribution will break down here:

1) Nick Foles will be under center, and the Eagles could try to take pressure off of him by leaning run-heavy, or they could try to take pressure off of him with a ball-out-quick passing attack. The first approach would favor Adams. The second would likely favor Sproles.

2) The Rams are likely to be playing with a lead — which may eventually force the Eagles to abandon the run altogether.

Realistically, this is not such a bad setup for the Showdown slate, where multi-entry play is practically necessary, and where “betting on various things that could realistically happen” is typically the best way to go. With Clement set to miss this week, we can comfortably predict that it will be Adams and Sproles leading the charge (Sproles played 23 snaps last week, to four for Smallwood). And with Adams seeing only one target across his last three games, it is likely that Sproles carries the pass game work while Adams functions as the primary guy on the ground. I’ll be expecting Adams to be featured early in the game to take pressure off Foles, with Sproles’ role growing as the game moves along — though there is obviously room for this workload to swing heavily one way or the other. Game flow and the Eagles’ overall offensive environment is unlikely to be great for running backs, but there are paths to upside in a good matchup for both of these guys.

EAGLES PASS OFFENSE

In order to prevent Nick Foles from getting overwhelmed by the strong pass rush of the Rams, the Eagles will likely focus on short, quick passes that will create opportunities for positive gains — largely limiting the per-play upside of pass catchers across the board, while putting all of these guys in a position where volume will be necessary in order for them to hit. In the two games that Foles started early in the year: he completed only 19 passes for 117 yards and no touchdowns against the still-healthy Falcons, before completing 35 passes for 334 yards and one touchdown while chasing points against the Bucs. Foles threw 82 passes across those two games (hint :: 451 yards on 82 passes comes out to 5.5 yards per pass attempt — which is very much in the “downright awful” range), with 15 of these passes (18.3%) going to running backs, 22 of these passes (26.8%) going to slot receiver Nelson Agholor, and with 23 of these passes (28.0%) going to Zach Ertz. It’s not impossible for perimeter receiver Alshon Jeffery to post production in this spot (there was that crazy Super Bowl, after all), but the likeliest bet here calls for Foles to focus heavily on running backs, Ertz, and the slot.

The Golden Tate trade continues to boggle the mind, as Tate is really a slot-only receiver, while Agholor has proven to be a far better player in the slot than he is on the perimeter. This has left the Eagles splitting time between these two, with Tate seeing recent snap counts of 39 // 36 // 20, compared to snap counts for Agholor of 47 // 65 // 49. Tate has played slot snaps in this stretch of 36 // 28 // 18, while Agholor has primarily occupied the slot whenever Tate is on the sidelines — with slot snaps in this stretch of 18 // 23 // 20. It’s a pure and total guessing game as to which of these guys will end up benefitting most with Foles under center. While Agholor has played far more snaps the last three weeks, he has only 12 targets in this stretch to 18 for Tate.

The safest bet, of course, is Ertz — who went 5-48-0 and 11-94-0 in his two games with Foles at the start of the year. Those yards-per-catch numbers won’t exactly make you jump up and shout Hallelujah, but they do provide a solid range of production on this one game slate.

All bets are off behind these primary pieces, with no guarantee that anyone provides useful value, and with no clear projection on who will provide any value that does happen to emerge.

RAMS PASS OFFENSE

The talent-deficient Eagles secondary has continued to post solid numbers against the pass this year, ranking 19th in yards allowed per pass attempt while ranking close to the middle of the pack in all of aDOT, catch rate allowed, and YAC/R allowed. The communication of this unit will be put to the test this week against a Rams offense that leans heavily on play-action, misdirection, and downfield crossing routes to make life difficult on a defense. In spite of the lack of talent in this Eagles secondary, this has been best viewed as a neutral matchup lately — though if figuring out how you want to build your Showdown rosters, there is certainly a case to be made for betting on the idea that this inexperienced secondary will have some breakdowns against this aggressive, well-designed offense.

Jared Goff has not looked like himself the last two weeks — with cold weather and a difficult matchup against the Bears perhaps partly to blame last week, but with no real excuse available to us for his Week 13 dud in Detroit coming off the bye. As always, this passing attack’s upside is far from guaranteed even in the best of matchups, as this team prefers to lean on the run when they can, and Gurley’s massive red zone role makes it difficult at times for this unit to pile up touchdowns. But if we take away a search for Certainty, there is plenty to like in terms of “upside potential.”

Targets on this team since Kupp went down look like this:

:: Robert Woods — 11 // 8 // 13
:: Brandin Cooks — 12 // 6 // 8
:: Josh Reynolds — 8 // 5 // 7
:: Tyler Higbee — 7 // 4 // 1
:: Gerald Everett — 4 // 3 // 7

The middle number for each player is the best range to bank on this week, as the first number came in that historic shootout against the Chiefs, and the last number came in a challenging matchup against the Bears last week in which the Rams completely abandoned the run — handing the ball to Gurley only 11 times while calling on Goff to throw 44 passes. Through most of the year, 30 to 36 pass attempts has been Goff’s range (he threw 33 passes in that middle game, vs Detroit) — and while outlier usage may lead to targets spiking outside the expected range for one of these guys, McVay generally calls a balanced enough game that all of these guys will see their expected level of usage. Woods and Cooks carry the most upside — with downfield roles and touchdown opportunities — while Reynolds, Higbee, and Everett will all have potential for positive production in this spot.

RAMS RUN OFFENSE

Analysis grows thin on the Rams’ run offense, where Todd Gurley will be operating as a huge home favorite, with his primary backup out for the season. While Gurley has posted two disappointing games in his last three, one came in a shootout with the Chiefs in which the Rams abandoned the run, and the other came against the Bears’ tremendous defense. Gurley played 62 of a possible 63 snaps last week. Against an Eagles team that ranks 28th in yards allowed per carry, Gurley carries the highest floor/ceiling projection on the weekend.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

On the Main Slate, of course, there is nothing on the Eagles’ side of the ball that would catch the eye, as a split backfield and a Foles-led attack is not exactly exciting. On the Showdown, the safest pieces for production are Ertz and possibly Sproles, but neither guy carries a high floor with Foles under center, opening the door for some variable approaches on this side of the ball. There is a chance that the Eagles are able to keep this game close long enough for Adams to ground-and-pound against this poor Rams run defense; there is a chance that Agholor or Tate produces from the slot; and there is even a chance that Alshon or Dallas Goedert emerge with a solid game in this spot. While the rest of the world has left the Eagles for dead, this is still a Super Bowl champion that is only a half game out of the NFC playoff picture — so expect this team to have some sort of quality plan in place to move the ball and put points on the board. If Foles is able to execute this plan, the Eagles could become more useful than it appears on the surface will be the case.

On the Rams’ side of the ball, it’s Gurley at the top, followed by Woods // Cooks // Goff, followed by the remaining hope-to-guess-right pieces in this attack. Gurley should be able to get his touches, yards, and scoring opportunities regardless of how this game plays out, but depending on how close you think the Eagles are able to keep this game, there are a number of ways to go about betting on pieces. If the ability to properly predict and bet on game environment is one of the more important aspects of NFL DFS, this Showdown slate will provide some good practice for betting on the various ways in which you could see this unique game playing out.

SAINTS // PANTHERS OVERVIEW

Same as the game on Sunday night: this matchup looked a lot more appealing a few weeks back, but with the Panthers losing five straight games to drop from 6-2 to 6-7, this matchup suddenly has the surface appearance of a dud. Lending some hope to this game is the fact that the Panthers are still very much alive in the NFC playoff hunt at this point, while the Saints’ explosive offense is always far less predictable on the road. Lending DFS hope in this game is the matchup between two offenses with explosive weapons in what should turn into a fun affair. This game opened with an aggressive Over/Under of 54.0 before being bet down to 51.5, with the Saints currently favored by six.

SAINTS RUN OFFENSE

With FOMO ownership on Alvin Kamara continuing to make him a popular play, he has still not seen his price adjusted down for his recent usage. Since Ingram returned to the field, here are the updated snap totals for this duo:

Kamara — 31 // 39 // 38 // 41 // 34 // 44 // 37 // 36 // 41
Ingram — 36 // 35 // 23 // 34 // 31 // 30 // 27 // 21 // 29

Kamara has 117 carries and 43 targets in this stretch. Ingram has 110 carries and 21 targets.

Kamara is best viewed as “an explosive player who sees 10 to 14 carries and four or five catches each week” — giving him a low price-considered floor to go with his talent-driven upside. Kamara’s involvement is guaranteed each week, so he certainly has opportunities to hit for big plays. He’s a hope-for-multiple-touchdowns option at his price this week.

Ingram is best viewed as “a solid runner who sees 10 to 14 carries and a couple catches each week” — giving him a low floor to go with his touchdown-dependent ceiling.

Neither guy has a good matchup against a Panthers defense that ranks eighth in DVOA against the run, with only five teams allowing fewer rushing yards to running backs on the season. The Panthers have also stamped out receiving production from running backs, with the third fewest yards allowed through the air.

SAINTS PASS OFFENSE

The Panthers have been far more attackable through the air this year, allowing an increase on the league-average aDOT of 7.4%, and allowing an increase on the league-average catch rate of 4.1%. The Panthers have done a good job taking away running backs in the pass game, facing the fourth fewest targets to the position, while only 10 teams have faced more targets to wide receivers. The Panthers have allowed the 10th most receptions and the seventh most yards to the wide receiver position.

Of course, this Saints passing attack flows almost entirely through Michael Thomas, who has also held onto a higher price tag than his production has warranted. Across the nine games that Thomas has played with Ingram, he has literally posted only two DFS scores that have justified his price. In exactly half of his last 10 games, Thomas has posted a score that would wreck your roster at his price. It seems that seven days is always long enough for people to forget what Thomas has done to them, so expect his ownership to remain high on the Showdown. From a raw projection standpoint, Thomas is, of course, one of the better plays on the slate — with a primary role in an offense that should be able to scrape together four or five touchdowns, in a matchup he can win. From a price-considered standpoint, you’ll need Thomas to pop off for more yardage upside than he has shown lately (only one game in his last 10 over 100 yards), or you’ll need him to piece together one of his multi-touchdown games. If you want to go here, it should be noted that Thomas’ chances of a price-considered dud are lower in this spot against a defense that generally filters targets toward wide receivers.

This passing attack has been a mess to target behind Thomas // Kamara // Ingram, with Keith Kirkwood piling up a 4-56-2 line across the last three weeks, Tre’Quan Smith train-wrecking to a 0-0-0 line across the last two weeks, Austin Carr going 1-12-1 across the last three weeks, and Tommylee Lewis going 2-48-1 across the last three weeks.

The tight end rotation on this team has not been any more predictable, with Dan Arnold, Ben Watson, and Josh Hill all seeing time on the field and all running pass routes, with none of these three being featured as predictable or primary weapons.

PANTHERS RUN OFFENSE

The engine of this Panthers offense has been Christian McCaffrey, who has recent touch counts of 19 // 28 // 19 // 22, with incredible recent reception totals of 6 // 11 // 9 // 6. As explored the last few weeks: CMC’s red zone role saw a sudden jump in Week 9 — and in his seven games since Week 8 (after scoring one touchdown through the Panthers’ first seven games), CMC has piled up an unbelievable 12 touchdowns.

While the workload works in favor of McCaffrey, the matchup works against him, as the Saints rank third in DVOA against the run and have allowed the third fewest yards per carry in the league. No team has allowed fewer rushing yards to running backs than the unbelievable 53.0 per game that New Orleans has allowed. When the Saints squared off against a similar-usage back in Todd Gurley, they allowed him to go for only 68 yards on the ground, while holding him to an incredibly low 11 yards receiving on six catches. None of this makes it impossible for CMC to hit in this spot — but all of this lowers the floor, and lowers the chances of a big game from the Panthers’ star back.

PANTHERS PASS OFFENSE

New Orleans has improved against the pass this year, but not as much as last week’s Chris Godwin game makes it seem, as this team still allowed 86 yards last week on only four catches (six targets) to Mike Evans, one week after allowing an 8-76-0 line (on eight targets) to Amari Cooper, and two weeks after allowing an 11-147-0 line (on 14 targets) to Julio Jones.

While no wide receiver has quite the talent or skill set of Julio, his usage in the Falcons’ offense most closely mirrors the way the Panthers have been using D.J. Moore over the last four weeks, with plays designed to get him moving across the field in space, in the hopes that he can use his after-catch ability to extend short and intermediate receptions into big gains. Moore has seen at least eight targets in each of his last four games, and while his aDOT of 8.4 is barely half of the 14.3 yard aDOT that Julio boasts, Moore’s xYAC/R is a full 1.1 yards higher than Julio’s, tightening up the gap a bit. If another eight to nine looks come his way in this spot, something like a 6-70-0 line is a safe median projection, with room for a big YAC day or a touchdown to give him useful upside on this slate.

Curtis Samuel has also been heavily involved lately, with target counts of 7 // 2 // 11 // 8 across his last four games. Because Samuel never saw the ownership spike that greeted Moore a few weeks ago, his price (and the public perception of him) has remained somewhat low, but he has become an integral piece of this attack at the moment — playing more snaps and running more pass routes last week than even Moore. Samuel’s aDOT of 12.3 gives him more upside on a per-catch basis than Moore, while his 65.9% catch rate on the year is not far off Moore’s mark of 73.4%.

Devin Funchess has become a part-time player lately, playing only 29 snaps last week, and seeing only six targets across the last two weeks combined. Torrey Smith has disappeared from this offense, while Jarius Wright runs low-upside routes designed to move the chances. He would need a broken play in order to matter.

This young, developing-on-the-fly passing attack wraps up with Ian Thomas, who has seen far more work this time around (16 targets across his last two games) than he did early in the year when filling in for Greg Olsen (16 total targets through the first four games of the year). Thomas continues to provide precious little upside on his looks — at only 8.4 yards per catch — and he enters a matchup this week against a Saints defense that has allowed the third fewest receptions and the fewest yards to the position. He would need a broken play or a touchdown to become worthwhile this week.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Across the last couple months, one of the biggest edges available in DFS has been to let 20% to 25% of the field spend a big chunk of salary on the Saints, and to move ahead of this chunk of the field on the large number of weeks in which the primary pieces on this team have disappointed for the price. But with this game off the Main Slate and providing us with the Saints as one of only two teams to choose from, you’ll have no option but to consider some of the pieces on this run-heavy, spread-the-wealth attack. Kamara // Ingram // Thomas have been absolutely guaranteed their touches and involvement in this offense, with the big issue being price-considered floor on Kamara and Thomas and raw floor on Ingram. All three are obviously among the top raw-projected options on the Showdown, but you’ll have to ignore the price-considered floor concerns if taking shots here. Behind these three, it’s a hodgepodge of limited-usage guys with only thin paths to raw upside. The player likeliest to provide actual value is Dan Arnold — but you could obviously make a case for betting on an outlier blowup (like the one we saw from Tre’Quan Smith a few weeks back). Tre’Quan is the best bet for another game like that, as he is the only player beyond Thomas and Kamara who is regularly playing even half of this team’s offensive snaps.

Of course, another way to get your exposure to this offense is through Drew Brees. While this has remained a run-heavy offense, Brees’ touchdown upside gives him an opportunity for top-of-the-slate production, while his price-considered floor has been far higher than what Kamara, Thomas, or Ingram has offered.

Cam Newton is also in play (shoulder injury and all), as the Panthers will have a tough time running here and will likely lean heavily on passes from Cam to his YAC-strong options (CMC // Moore // Samuel). This will give him an opportunity to pile up low-effort yardage, on short and intermediate throws that are turned into solid after-catch gains. The Saints are a strong-tackling secondary, but the opportunity for yardage and touchdown upside will be there.

McCaffrey is a bet-on-usage option in this difficult matchup. As with the high-priced players on the other side of this game: his floor is low this week for his price, and his chances of reaching his ceiling are far lower than normal as well; but there will certainly be opportunities for him to pick up yards and touchdowns, keeping him in the conversation on the Showdown.

Moore and Samuel are both interesting on the Showdown, as they should remain heavily involved this week against a Saints team that filters targets to wide receivers. Only five teams in the NFL have faced more wide receiver targets this season than the Saints, and no team has allowed more wide receiver yards. From a point-per-dollar standpoint, these two carry the highest projection on the slate.

As always, you can try to get creative betting on potential outlier game flows or multi-touchdown games on the Showdown, but this should give you a good starting point on how “likeliest scenarios” will shape the likeliest outcomes on this slate.