Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• This is a huge NFC North divisional matchup and a rematch from Week 1 when the Packers dominated Detroit.
• The Packers hope to get star RB Josh Jacobs and WR Jayden Reed back from injury this week. 
• Detroit’s offense is centered around their running game and will be very condensed without TE Sam LaPorta and possibly WR Kalif Raymond.
• These teams share multiple common opponents from the last three weeks and had similar outcomes in their matchups against the Eagles and Giants.

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How green bay Will Try To Win ::

The Packers are coming off a couple of strange weeks as they faced the Giants in heavy winds that caused New York to run the ball at a very high rate and play extremely conservatively then faced a Vikings offense that was a train wreck and posed almost no threat for the entirety of the game. Green Bay’s approach and philosophy under Matt LaFleur, when allowed to, has been to control games and methodically pick apart their opponents. The Giants game was too close for comfort, but last week’s game against Minnesota was basically exactly how the Packers look to take care of their business. Their defense dominated and their offense was able to pound the ball on the ground, milk the clock, and pick and choose their spots to pass the ball. Green Bay ranks 29th in the NFL in pass rate over expectation over the last month as they have dealt with injuries in their receiving corps. The short week on the road against a formidable Detroit offense is unlikely to allow the Packers to play things so close to the vest, and their receiving corps could be getting a shot in the arm at just the right time.

Green Bay wisely chose to rest star RB Josh Jacobs in last week’s win over Minnesota, giving his bruised knee extra time to heal. It is expected that Jacobs will be active for this huge divisional game and he will have 10 days to rest before Green Bay faces the Bears. Emanuel Wilson filled in admirably and handled a massive workload with 30 touches against the Vikings, although efficiency was not great and his longest carry was only 12 yards. He was able to consistently move the offense in small chunks and did his job. It seems unlikely that Wilson would be up to the task of another massive workload on a short week, so if Jacobs were to miss this game again, we could see Chris Brooks play a slightly larger role, considering they will likely have more passing situations and won’t just be grinding the clock. If Jacobs does play, we should expect Wilson to stay involved as the team clearly trusts him. Wilson would seem to fit perfectly to take a good portion of the “empty carries” on early downs in the middle part of the field, simply soaking up volume, while Jacobs stays fresh for the high leverage spots and still ends up in the 16 to 22 touch range. The Packers tight ends without Tucker Kraft have been used sparingly and Jordan Love is not a quarterback who is running often or on designed plays, so this leaves almost all of the offense’s usage split between the backs and receivers.

As for the receivers, Christian Watson is back to full strength which has left him and Romeo Doubs as the clear top-2 wide receivers for the Packers. Rookie Matthew Golden sat out last week’s game, but may return this week. Explosive slot receiver Jayden Reed started practicing last week and has a chance to play in this one. Dontayvion Wicks had a solid game in Week 12 and was second on the team in targets, but is nursing a calf injury and playing on a short week. Green Bay is no stranger to rotating players at the wide receiver position and all of those players will mix in if available, while Doubs and Watson are likely to play over 70% of the snaps. This week they face a Lions defense that plays some of the highest rates of man coverage in the league and just got torched by Jameis Winston. Detroit’s defense is also historically very strong against the run and holds opponents to only 3.9 yards per carry this season, while the Packers have some offensive line injuries and have disappointed a bit running the ball this season, averaging only 4.0 yards per carry. The Packers are unlikely to be able to run at the astronomical rate they have been recently, although they will still likely stay very balanced. The Packers don’t want to get into a shootout here, but will look to pick their spots and control the game from the outset while leaning on their elite defense.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• Both of these franchises with high expectations are fighting for their playoff lives with very little margin for error, while coming off huge comeback victories that kept their hopes alive.
• Kansas City’s backfield has been dominated by Kareem Hunt recently, but it may be more complicated this week.
• The Dallas defense has been much improved since their Week 10 bye, thanks to personnel acquisitions and better execution.
• These offenses rank 4th and 7th, respectively, in pass rate over expectation (PROE) in the last month.
• George Pickens has been outperforming CeeDee Lamb in recent weeks, but the WR duo for Dallas leaves opponents in a tough spot.
• Dallas plays a zone heavy coverage scheme, which should funnel a massive amount of targets to Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce.

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How kansas city Will Try To Win ::

The Chiefs were on the verge of having a losing record in the second half of the season for the first time in over a decade last week as they entered at 5-5 and faced a 20-9 4th quarter deficit against the Colts. In classic Chiefs fashion, however, they found a way to pull out a close victory through some staunch defense, timely conversions, and Patrick Mahomes magic. Kansas City’s path to the playoffs is not a pushover, but it is far from something they can’t overcome. They have games left against the lowly Titans and Raiders, as well as matchups with the Cowboys, Chargers, Texans, and Broncos – all of whom are respectable opponents with playoff possibilities. All of the Chiefs losses have been by one possession, so despite their middling record they are still lurking as a team who can go on a run and everyone in the AFC should be concerned that they may just be figuring things out.

Kansas City leads the NFL in pass rate over expectation, a stat that should surprise no one at this point, but is still worth stating. Patrick Mahomes is the engine here and the backfield’s volume generally shows up when the game script and matchup dictate it. Otherwise, the Chiefs generally run the ball just often enough that you can’t ignore it altogether. Despite that, the Chiefs rank 6th in the NFL in rushing offense DVOA as their play calling and the times that they do run the ball are usually the opportune moments. This week they face a Dallas defense that on paper looks like a terrible unit against the run if you check the full season statistics, but in reality is far from a pushover. They have added multiple players this season through trades and were missing some injured players who are now back on the field. This is a team that just held Saquon Barkley to 22 rushing yards on 10 carries and forced the Eagles to live through the passing game last week despite falling behind 21-0 due to a horrible start in all areas. All of this is to say the Chiefs will run the ball some, but are unlikely to be overly successful doing so, and therefore this game will rest on the shoulders of Patrick Mahomes, as is often the case.

When Kansas City does throw the ball, they will face a zone-heavy Dallas coverage scheme that has been focused on not allowing deep passes after getting torched early in the season. The Cowboys blitz at a moderate rate, but seem likely to pick and choose their spots this week against Mahomes. We should not expect them to be overly aggressive in this matchup and leave themselves exposed in the secondary when we consider the opponent and their overall defensive philosophy. This means they will have a lot of bodies in coverage, but Mahomes should have time to read the field and make his throws. The obvious beneficiaries for the Chiefs in this schematic matchup are WR Rashee Rice and TE Travis Kelce. Rice’s underneath role and ability to make plays after the catch are perfect for exploiting zone coverage and he is far more effective in those spots than in man coverage. Mahomes is elite at seeing the holes in the zone and getting the ball to Rice with great ball placement, so he is able to quickly turn from receiver to ball carrier and make the most of his opportunities. The Chiefs have been expanding the ways they use Rice, which were on full display in last week’s comeback against the Colts as he was moved all over the formation, put in motion often, and ran a diverse route tree. He was the clear engine for the offense and did not disappoint. Kelce can operate in a similar role, although his after catch ability is not what it once was. Assuming Mahomes has time to scan the field and improvise when first reads aren’t there, Kelce should make some plays in “scramble drill” situations due to the elite chemistry between the two. Other players will be involved, and the Chiefs rotate their other skill players at a relatively high rate, but when it is all said and done we should expect around a 65-70% pass rate from the Chiefs with Rice and Kelce combining for 50-60% of the targets.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• This will be the long awaited return of Bengals QB Joe Burrow, who has been sidelined since Week 2 with a toe injury.
• Cincinnati wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase returns to the lineup after a one game suspension, while Tee Higgins will miss this game due to a concussion.
• Bengals RB Samaje Perine is practicing in a full capacity, which is likely to have the backfield reverting to a timeshare of sorts.
• The status of key defenders for both teams are in doubt with Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson and Ravens DB Kyle Hamilton facing an uphill battle to play.
• The two games between these teams last season combined for 69 and 79 points.

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How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

Usually we like to look at recent performance and team tendencies to get an idea of how teams will operate, but in the Bengals case that is tough to do as they have a lot of moving parts. After several weeks of the Joe Flacco experience, Cincinnati gets all pro QB Joe Burrow back on the field. They will also be without WR Tee Higgins due to a concussion for the first time this season, while they are getting Ja’Marr Chase back after a one game suspension. Also, after three games with RB Chase Brown dominating the backfield work the Bengals will get veteran RB Samaje Perine back on the field to soak up some carries and the pass game role. All in all, this is basically a Bengals offense that we haven’t seen before on a short week in a must-win game on national TV. They are also facing a Baltimore defense that has held six straight opponents under 20 points.

The Bengals are obviously a pass based offense and most effective when they are able to play through their playmakers. Cincinnati ranks top-10 in the NFL in PROE in the red zone, neutral game scripts, and overall for the season. Missing Higgins has historically meant that the team will lean heavily on Ja’Marr Chase, who was peppered with targets by Flacco and will likely see the same treatment from Burrow. The offense is structured in a way that relies on their players winning matchups and making the plays, which is a challenge Chase is up for. The Baltimore run defense is solid and Cincinnati’s run game is more of an afterthought than a focal point, which means that most of this offense’s production will have to come through the air.

Cincinnati operates an offense emphasizing quick, rhythmic passing and stretching the defense both horizontally and vertically. With Ja’Marr Chase back, they will attempt to isolate him on the outside against man coverage looks, or exploit zone gaps with “Y-Option” or “Choice” routes that allow Chase to read the defender. The goal is to get the ball out quickly to neutralize the Ravens’ improving pass rush and exotic blitzes. The Ravens’ defense often dictates throws outside the numbers or over the top. The Bengals, however, are adept at attacking the seams and middle of the field with their tight ends and slot receivers. While Tee Higgins’ absence limits the deep sideline threat, expect more use of in-breaking routes and “screens” to get the ball out of Burrow’s hands quickly in his first game back from a toe injury. After Chase, the primary receiving options will be wide receivers Andrei Iosivas and Mitchell Tinsley, with tight end Mike Gesicki also having a meaningful role after running a route on 67% of Cincinnati’s drop backs last week and tying for the team lead with six targets. All of Higgins, Tinsley, Iosivas, and Gesicki were targeted six times in that game, but we should expect a more top-heavy approach in this one with Chase being the clear focal point due to his more dynamic skill set than Higgins.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

We get a Black Friday game, so listen up, people who want to avoid going shopping: tell your partner there’s a Showdown and that you need to play it so you can make some extra spending money for Christmas. This one has the Bears visiting the Eagles for a 44.5 total game with Philly favored by a touchdown. This is something of a battle of two often-dysfunctional teams that both still have winning records, with the Bears luck-boxing into an 8-3 record despite having given up more points than they’ve scored, and the Eagles also at 8-3, mostly on the back of a very solid defense. Let’s see if we can figure this one out. 

PHILADELPHIA

On the Eagles side, Saquon Barkley has an elite role, but he himself has been far from elite this year. He only has three games over 4 yards per carry and just one game of reaching the 100-yard bonus while scoring just 6 touchdowns in 11 games. Last game against Dallas, Philly basically gave up on running the ball fairly early on, despite playing from a lead, because Saquon was getting stuffed over and over again. This is a much more forgiving matchup as the Bears have been one of the worst run defenses in the NFL, giving up more yards per attempt than even the Bengals. If there was ever a get-right spot for Saquon, this is it. Brand name alone has kept his price above $10k despite mediocre production for almost the entire season, so we aren’t exactly getting a discount, but on paper, this is a great spot as a big home favorite who is one of the few true bell cow backs in the league. RB2 Will Shipley and RB3 Tank Bigsby are both barely seeing any work, usually playing single-digit snaps per game. Dissly hasn’t even seen an offensive touch since Week 10 and has a grand total of 11 carries and 6 targets on the year, while Bigsby got some blowout run in Week 8 and seems to at least have some upside if the game gets out of hand. They’re both very thin plays.

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In the passing game, we know the deal with Philly: DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown play almost every snap, Jahan Dotson is a half-time or so player, and some guy named Darius Cooper has played a handful of snaps. Smith and AJB are 1A and 1B, with Smith having consistently been better, but only by a relatively modest difference. We know that we generally look to AJB when playing teams that use heavy-man coverage schemes, and the Bears are pretty close to league average there, so that makes me lean towards Smith. Smith is also $1k cheaper, which is likely to make the field lean his way as well. They’re both solid plays. Smith is probably the slightly better play but will also come with slightly higher ownership. Dotson is a dart throw who has a season-high of 3 targets and has only reached double-digit DK points once.

At tight end, Dallas Goedert is another core part of the offense, but I remember the last time I wrote up an Eagles Showdown, I said something to the effect of “I don’t like guys who usually see only a few targets per game and only tend to find ceiling by scoring touchdowns.” Since then Goedert has failed to score touchdowns and has flopped in three straight games. Imagine that. This is a slightly different situation as his price has come down significantly to a season-low of $5,200, and at this point I’m much more willing to take the risk. He’s much more appealing when priced near the kickers than when he was at a season-high price of $7,400 the last time I had to write up the Eagles. He probably still needs a touchdown, but at this price and in a great matchup, I’m game here (I like the two primary wideouts more). TE2 Grant Calcaterra is another dart throw option. The Eagles run a really condensed offense: it’s Saquon, Smith, AJB, and Goedert, and that’s basically it.

CHICAGO

Game Overview ::

By papy324

• The 49ers have slowed down and dropped their PROE since Brock Purdy returned from injury.
• Christian McCaffrey is always in play, but he’s expensive and this is the worst possible matchup.
• The 49ers pass catchers are affordable, but they’re in a low volume attack in a bad matchup.
• The Browns’ offense has been the worst in the league by many metrics, and Shedeur Sanders doesn’t look capable of changing their fortunes.
• Quinshon Judkins has been the lone bright spot for the Browns. They’re going to try and win through him, but his offensive line hasn’t been doing him any favors.
• The Browns are the opposite of a target team for DFS. They play stingy defense, and stink on offense.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

The 49ers come into Week 13 with an 8-4 record after a dominant primetime win against the middling Panthers. Eight wins would be tied for first place in any other division in the NFC, but unfortunately for the 49ers, that’s not the case in the NFC West. Easily the best division in football, the NFC West has three teams with eight wins or better, giving the 49ers no margin for error as they enter the final stretch of the season. Kyle Shanahan deserves a lot of credit as one of the few nepotism coaches who have worked out. He still runs a similar system to what his dad did in the 90s, and despite the league seeing it for years, they can’t stop the underlying concepts. The 49ers are balanced (14^th in PROE), but they’ve been slightly more run heavy lately (18^th in PROE over their last four games). They’ve also been playing fast (6th in seconds per play) throughout the season, but they’ve slowed down (22^nd in seconds per play) in their last three games. It’s interesting that the 49ers seemed more willing to play quickly with Mac Jones than Brock Purdy. The same looks true for passing game aggressiveness, as their PROE numbers have steadily dipped since Purdy returned. Their offense has also gotten healthier as the season progresses, with all their skill position players (this side of Brandon Aiyuk) back on the field. The Shanahan offense has been the same for years, and even though everyone has seen it forever, it’s still difficult to stop.

The Browns defense has been nails (1^st in DOVA) against the run and difficult (5th in DVOA) against the pass. The Browns aren’t just difficult to gain yards against; they also have a fierce pass rush that has generated 28 sacks in their past five games, including a whopping 10 sacks last week. The 49ers O-line has been playing above expectations (6^th ranked by PFF) and is coming off an excellent game. They allowed eight pressures and no sacks on 35 drop-backs against the Panthers, but Myles Garrett and the Browns will be a much tougher test. This will be a strength-on-strength battle in the trenches. There is no easy way to attack the Browns defense, which doesn’t give the 49ers, who always play a specific style, any reason to change. The 49ers are going to play their usual brand of balanced football, with a chance that they lean into the pass slightly more than usual because of how stiff the Browns are against the run.  

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• This game carries the lowest combined pace of play of the week.
• WR Brian Thomas Jr. has not played since Week 9 while dealing with a high-ankle sprain. Rookie WR Travis Hunter is done of the season due to an LCL tear.
• WR Calvin Ridley is done for the season due to a broken fibula.
• WR Elic Ayomanor returned to practice on Wednesday and appears set to return from a one-game absence.
• The Titans have been competitive in three games this season – the first coming against the pre-Brissett Cardinals, who blew a 21-3 lead, the second coming against the Chargers in which they scored two D/ST touchdowns, and the third coming against the Seahawks in which they tacked on another special-teams score.
• The Jaguars average the third-most plays per game (65.5) while the Titans are sitting in 27^th (58.3).

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How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

The trio of Travis Etienne, Bhayshul Tuten, and LeQuint Allen has combined to average 29.25 rush attempts per game since the team’s Week 8 bye. Compare that to the 27.25 pass attempts per game that Trevor Lawrence is averaging during that same timeframe and we start to get a clearer picture of how this team is trying to win games at present. And it hasn’t even been that they’ve completely dominated game environments during their last four games, with a 30-29 win over the Raiders, a 29-36 loss to the Texans, a 35-6 win over the Chargers, and a 27-24 win over the Cardinals making up their four games since their bye. Like we have seen for other offenses with new offensive coordinators or head coaches, the Jaguars also seem to be able to keep opposing defenses on their heels of late, with play-calling tendencies the biggest contributor to the newfound successes. 

Etienne continues to serve as the lead back for the Jaguars, but this backfield remains a frustrating three-man timeshare. Etienne understandably saw his lowest snap rate in their bye in the blowout win over the Chargers, but he handled 58%, 56%, and 65% snap rates in the three other games. A range of 16-18 carries and a handful of targets remains his likeliest range of outcomes, although of the three backs, he presents the clearest path for volume to concentrate. The price is a bit out of hand considering the bulk of his range of outcomes, with a tag of $6,500 leaving little room for him to project well on a point-per-dollar basis, regardless of the matchup. Speaking of the matchup, the Titans have allowed 4.8 yards per carry, while getting torched for 5.43 yards per carry and a robust 52.2% success rate against man/gap concepts. That’s an interesting setup considering Etienne has actually been far more efficient behind zone concepts this season (5.60 YPC vs. 4.18 YPC) while seeing a near-even split in carries behind each (83 to 80), making me far less excited to click his name this week. For comparison sake, part of the reason I was so high on Kenneth Walker last week were his splits behind man/gap concepts vs. zone, which seem to be flipped for Etienne.

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We’re still waiting on the return of Thomas to the Jacksonville lineup, who has missed the previous three games with an ankle injury. He was limited in practice Wednesday. It was interesting to me that the addition of Jakobi Meyers made the largest dent in the involvement of Dyami Brown, who played just four offensive snaps a week ago as Meyers’ shot up to 84% in his third game with the team. Tight end Brenton Strange immediately stepped back into the featured pass-caching tight end role last week after missing the previous five games. I would think we see something like a 65-85% snap rate from BTJ if he returns, with Meyers, Parker Washington, and Strange in the near every-down roles at pass catcher. Of note, the Jaguars ran their highest rate of 12-personnel of the season in Week 12, but I see that as more driven by the available bodies than anything else. The Titans rank 29^th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.3) while allowing the second highest completion rate (69.9%), making this a solid spot on paper, albeit one that comes with the obvious caveat that the Jaguars are no longer comfortable placing games in the hands of Trevor Lawrence.

HOW tennessee WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• QB C.J. Stroud appears set to return from a three-game absence due to a concussion following two full sessions to start the week.
• QB Daniel Jones is reportedly dealing with a “fracture in his fibula,” which does not seem pleasant. He is expected to try to play through the ailment but looked noticeably slowed and uncomfortable in videos from practice Thursday. Sixth-round rookie Riley Leonard is currently the backup, with Anthony Richardson still on injured reserve.
• This game has the feel of one in which the Colts are forced out of structure, considering the injury to Jones and the matchup against the Texans. Should that happen, we might see something we haven’t seen in many games this season: the Colts failing to control the game environment.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How HOUSTON Will Try To Win ::

The Texans surprisingly rank ninth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and fifth in total pass volume (35.6 attempts per game), which I suppose makes more sense considering the team’s general inability to run the football efficiently behind one of the worst run-blocking offensive lines in the league. They are also getting Stroud back after he missed the previous three games, all three ending in Houston wins with Davis Mills under center, including a statement win over the Bills their last time out. After starting the season with 28 or fewer pass attempts in four of his first five starts, Stroud attempted 49 and 39 passes in the two games prior to injury, with Mills then attempting 41 passes or more in two of three starts. Expect a pass-neutral offensive approach likely influenced by the Colts’ ability to find offensive success early.

Rookie Woody Marks has taken over complete control of the Houston backfield in the team’s most recent three-game stretch, handling 17, 19, and 17 opportunities on at least 66% of the team’s offensive snaps. Fullback Jakob Johnson was reintroduced to the lineup in Week 11 after missing six games, while the team has yet to play a game with both Harrison Bryant and Cade Stover healthy. That has left the offense rooted in 11-personnel for much of the season. Nick Chubb, now in the change-of-pace role, has seen opportunity counts of six, five, and seven in his previous three contests. The Colts have held opponents to just 4.0 yards per carry on the season while forcing the eight-highest PROE, although the combination of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier rushed for 141 yards while Kareem Hunt cleared 100 yards for the only time all season against the Colts in the past two weeks. There might be something here for Marks if the game environment cooperates.

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The Texans have played their previous four games with a full complement of healthy pass catchers, with all of Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, Jayden Higgins, Christian Kirk, and Xavier Hutchinson on the field. During that stretch, only Collins (84.5%) and Schultz (75.3%) have been in a route on more than 53.4% (Kirk) of the team’s dropbacks, with Higgins (51.1%) and Hutchinson (51.1%) more involved than Noel (26.4%). That’s an interesting setup considering the Colts have seen a jump in man-coverage rates following the addition of Sauce Gardner at the trade deadline, now playing primarily from Cover-3 and Cover-1. That has led to the fourth-highest rate of single-high coverage over their previous three games (64.7%). Only Collins (2.71) has a yards per route run (YPRR) mark higher than 1.61 (Higgins) against single-high this season, with Kirk second on the team in fantasy points per route run (FP/RR) (0.41) behind Collins. Consider the matchup more of a “Collins or bust” setup, and he’ll be forced to contend with likely shadow coverage from Gardner for almost 40% of his routes.

HOW INDIANAPOLIS WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• RB Alvin Kamara (knee/ankle) was ruled out Friday while Devin Neal upgraded to a full session. It should be Neal’s backfield this week.
• WR Chris Olave went limited-DNP-limited before drawing a questionable tag for Week 13.
• TE Darren Waller got in a week of limited sessions and is listed as questionable – keep an eye on the team’s transactions Saturday to gauge his availability this weekend. Head coach Mike McDaniel said earlier this week that the veteran tight end has a chance to play against the Saints.
• The Dolphins have allowed the highest opposing completion rate (72.87%) despite facing the sixth-fewest pass attempts per game (28.8).
• Neal, and the Saints, for that matter, is no world-beater, but he appears to be in a solid spot on paper against the Dolphins and comes with a depressed salary of only $5,000 on DK.
• I’m not sure if it’s due to game environments, opponents, or what, but the Saints have filtered only 46 targets to opposing backfields this season, tied with the Broncos for fewest in the league. It might have something to do with them facing the third-most rush attempts (284) though.
• Here’s a fun one: The Dolphins are averaging the fewest plays per game this season at just 55.7. 

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How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

Shough has made three starts for the Saints this season, all three of which were in wildly different game environments. The team managed only 41 offensive plays run from scrimmage against the Rams in a blowout loss in Week 9, ran 68 offensive plays in a 17-7 win over the Panthers in Week 10, and ran 80 offensive plays in a 24-10 loss to the Falcons in Week 12 after their bye. Their pace-up nature has endured through the change at quarterback, while it brought an emphasis on 12-personnel. After Taysom Hill was utilized primarily as a runner alongside Spencer Rattler, the change at quarterback also brought him under center at a higher rate, with the veteran fantasy troll not really seeing usage as a pass catcher just yet due to his injury. That has led to 21 combined carries over the previous three games. In total, the Saints are firmly entrenched in “future evaluation” mode after trading away Rashid Shaheed at the deadline and swapping to Shough under center.

Hill is going to see carries here, but this backfield should be largely left to Neal in the absence of Kamara. Most notable is the fact that over 82% of Neal’s carries this season have come behind zone concepts, where he is averaging a solid 4.36 yards per carry and a robust 71.4% success rate (small sample alert, he only has 17 carries this season). That said, I was pleased with his tape coming out of college this offseason, labeling him as a decisive runner with in-close burst and solid pass-catching chops. And while the Dolphins have improved against the run as the season has progressed, they continue to allow increased production to zone-heavy teams. They have allowed 4.91 yards per carry to opposing runs behind zone concepts this season and just gave up 5.3 yards per carry to Chris Rodriguez, 4.1 YPC to James Cook, and 6.3 YPC to Derrick Henry their last three times out. Finally, the Dolphins have faced the third-highest rush rate over expectation (RROE) this season as teams have found consistent success against them on the ground.

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The team’s overall pass rates have understandably dipped significantly with the move to Shough, now averaging a middling 57.3% pass rate over their previous three games. That said, they have remained balanced through the change, with 49 of Shough’s 94 pass attempts coming in the first half versus 45 after the break. The team continues to utilize downfield passing as well, with Shough’s 14.3% deep-throw rate and 8.9-yard aDOT ranking near the top of the league (compared to the 8.1-yard aDOT and 12.1% deep-throw rate of Rattler). That has actually ballooned Olave’s aDOT up to 14.6 with Shough under center, while still averaging 8.0 targets per game. We’ll have to wait and see how Olave’s back reacts to the week of practice after he went limited-DNP-limited this week, but I currently expect him to play. That obviously shakes things up quite a bit if he is ultimately unable to go. The pass-catching corps is rounded out by tight end Juwan Johnson (74.3% route participation with Shough), Devaughn Vele (75.2%), with Mason Tipton and Foster Moreau the primary rotational pieces. Veteran WR Brandin Cooks, who had run a 64.9% route participation with Shough, negotiated a release from the Saints and has now signed on with the Bills. The worst opposing completion rate allowed (72.87%) has left the Dolphins allowing the sixth-most yards per pass attempt despite facing the fifth-fewest pass attempts per game (28.8), making this a good spot on paper for Olave, if active. Finally, it is at least worth mention and consideration that Shough has thrown for more yards in two of his three starts than Rattler did at any point through eight starts, while completing 69.8% or more of his passes in those two games. 

HOW miami WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• WR Drake London (knee) remained sidelined in Wednesday’s practice, making it likely he misses another game this week.
• The Jets have just one player listed on their injury report for Week 13, DL Harrison Philips (DNP, foot), who is expected to practice by the end of the week.
• QB Tyrod Taylor is expected to start again under center for the Jets.
• New York’s current top two options at wide receiver were not with the team to start the season – WRs John Metchie and Adonai Mitchell. Garrett Wilson remains on injured reserve.
• This game is a battle between two teams with veteran backup quarterbacks missing their top wide receivers.
• We have a two-game sample of how the Falcons are expected to behave with Kirk Cousins under center and no Drake London, while we have a one-game sample of how we expect the Jets to behave with Tyrod Taylor under center and no Garrett Wilson.
• Both teams have allowed below average rates of explosive plays, both on the ground and through the air.

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How atlanta Will Try To Win ::

The Falcons had two of their four lowest PROE games in the two games started by veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins, with Cousins attempting just 31 passes in a 34-10 loss to the Dolphins in Week 8 and 23 passes in a 24-10 win over the Saints in Week 12. They ran only 48 offensive plays as they struggled to sustain drives against the Dolphins, leading to only 17 team rush attempts, and 55 offensive plays against the Saints, leading to 29 combined team carries. It is interesting that those two games also happened to be the only two games that Drake London missed this season, which appears to be the case again in Week 13. In other words, we have a two-game sample of expected tendencies already this season that showcase how we expect this team to behave with the personnel they are likely to have on the field against the Jets.

I don’t know if this is signal or noise, but it is notable that lead back Bijan Robinson carried two of his three lowest snap rate games in the contests started by Cousins this season (60% and 66% against the Dolphins and Saints, respectively). Both of those games involved extreme environments with the Falcons trailing throughout against the Dolphins and leading throughout against the Saints, meaning they could simply be outliers based on game environment considering the fact we expect Robinson to remain heavily involved in games that are close throughout, as he was in the 30-27 loss to the Panthers in which he saw 23 carries and five targets in Week 11. That is a long way of saying that Bijan is most valuable to us in close games, with the team otherwise content to give backup Tyler Allgeier increased run. One interesting aspect of the matchup is that the Jets held Derrick Henry to 3.0 yards per carry, TreVeyon Henderson to 3.3 yards per carry, and Quinshon Judkins to 3.4 yards per carry in the three games since trading away key pieces of their defense at the trade deadline (including Quinnen Williams). On the season, the Jets are allowing only 4.2 yards per carry behind the third fewest yards allowed before contact per attempt (1.55). Consider this a neutral-to-negative matchup on the ground.

The Falcons understandably utilized extreme rates of 12-personnel in their Week 12 win, a game played without Michael Penix and Drake London. In fact, they also mixed in some 13-personnel, for good measure. David Sills actually led the team in snap rate at wide receiver (70%), with Kyle Pitts (95%), Charlie Woerner (61%), and Teagan Quitoriano (63%) soaking up the bulk of the pass-catching snaps on the team. Pitts (92.6%) and Darnell Mooney (85.2%) were the only pass-catchers to be in a route on more than 60% of the team’s dropbacks, sapping much of the upside from this unit. Pitts has accounted for a 25.9% target rate in the two games started by Cousins this season, handily leading the team but also lacking top tier upside considering expected tendencies. There isn’t a ton of upside from this group outside of extremely negative game environments, which are much more unlikely against the Taylor-led Jets.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• RBs Trey Benson and Emari Demercado are both out for the Cardinals, while Zonovan Knight is listed as questionable after a week of limited showings.
• WR Marvin Harrison Jr is questionable after his emergency appendectomy three weeks ago.
• RB Bucky Irving is questionable following a week of limited sessions. He is expected to make his return.
• QB Baker Mayfield is also listed as questionable after going DNP-limited-full in practice this week. Head coach Todd Bowles said Friday that he “looked good today, so he’s trending to play.”
• The Tampa Bay backfield appears to be in a good spot on paper but comes with extreme uncertainty regarding expected workload split.

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How arizona Will Try To Win ::

Arizona’s pass attempts in games started by Jacoby Brissett this season: 44 in a 31-27 loss to the Colts, 36 in a 27-23 loss to the Packers, 31 in a 27-17 win over the Cowboys, 44 in a 44-22 loss to the Seahawks, 57 in a record-setting, 41-22 loss to the 49ers in which Brissett set the NFL record for most completions in a game with 47, and 49 in a 27-24 loss to the Jaguars. Of note, the Cardinals scored 22 points or more in all six of those games after failing to do so in four of five Kyler Murray starts. That stretch has the Cardinals now second in the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE) behind only the Chiefs. This team can’t stop a sneeze on defense as they’ve struggled through numerous key injuries on the defensive side of the ball, now ranked 25^th in points allowed per game at 25.7. These are all tendencies that contribute to weekly interest in attacking games involving the Cardinals.

What’s more, the backfield remains in a complete state of disarray, and could potentially be getting worse with the presence of Bam Knight on the injury report with a questionable designation. Cardinals backs are averaging 4.18 yards per carry since Week 5, which were all games played without both James Conner and Trey Benson. The Buccaneers continue to be a pass-funnel defense, now facing the third highest PROE, the seventh highest overall pass rate (60.73%), and the 11^th-most pass attempts per game (34.1). Nothing here points to a plus matchup or an expectation for increased volume from the Arizona backfield.

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PFP the OWS pennant

Which brings us to the pass game. Brissett is averaging 43.5 pass attempts per game in his six starts, which had been a fantasy goldmine without Harrison and the team left with only tight end Trey McBride and wide receivers Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch as regular contributors. That setup could take a slight hit with Harrison expected back this week, with much of the changes in the volume expectations likely to move from Dortch and Wilson and to Harrison. The team has played three games with all four pass catchers healthy and Brissett under center (Weeks 7, 9, and 10), during which time McBride handily led the team in underlying metrics, followed by Harrison and then a massive tier drop to the remaining two. Also of note here is the expected return of Jamel Dean to the Bucs’ secondary, which is a massive improvement over Benjamin Morrison and Kindle Vildor. And with much of the production against the Buccaneers coming via wide receivers, it does raise the potential for Wilson to see additional looks against primary coverage from Zyon McCollum. 

HOW TAMPA BAY WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• WR Tutu Atwell was removed from the injury report Friday and will play in earnest for the first time since Week 5 (he played just 10 offensive snaps in Week 7).
• The Panthers will be without their center and right guard, in addition to CB Jaycee Horn.
• One of the most interesting aspects of this game is the personnel tendencies of the Rams, who largely ditched their 13-personnel-heavy ways last week in the absence of Tyler Higbee.
• Puka Nacua against Cover-3 this season: 0.47 targets per route run (TPRR), 4.59 yards per route run (YPRR), 45.6% first-read target rate, and 0.94 fantasy points per route run (FP/RR). The Panthers deploy the third-highest rate of Cover-3 in the league.

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How LOS ANGELES Will Try To Win ::

Sean McVay continues to prove why he is one of the most dynamic offensive minds in the league. A ton has already been said about his shift to a higher emphasis on 13-personnel this season, forcing opposing defenses into more favorable personnel groupings to take advantage of. Last week without Higbee in the lineup, those tendencies largely dried up, with the team instead more heavily focused on 11-personnel. Higbee is on injured reserve and Atwell is coming back this week, leading me to believe we see heavy rates of 11-personnel against the Panthers. That’s important, as Nacua had largely remained off the field when the team went heavy, with Davante Adams typically utilized in those situations. It might seem negligible, but Nacua’s route participation went up over 6% in Week 12, as compared to the previous month of play.

The emergence of Blake Corum has held Kyren Williams to a 69% snap rate in each of the previous five games. In that five-game sample since Week 7, Kyren had more than 14 carries only once – his 25-carry, 114-yard game in a blowout win over the Saints. That also serves as the only game all season in which Kyren went for more than 100 yards. Furthermore, his normally strong pass-game involvement has largely dried up this season, with only one game of more than four targets all season. And then there are the elevated red-zone pass rates from a team that has the frontrunner for the MVP under center in Matthew Stafford, and a matchup against a Panthers defense that is allowing almost a full yard fewer per carry in 2025 compared to a season ago (4.3). It certainly doesn’t look to be an amazing spot for the veteran lead back on paper, outside of his fluky multi-touchdown upside.

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Here are Nacua’s advanced metrics against Cover-3 this season: 0.47 TPRR, 4.59 YPRR, 45.6% first-read target rate, and 0.94 FP/RR. The Panthers rank third in the league in Cover-3 utilization at a robust 39.8% while playing from zone at the second-highest rate in the league (80.2%). Against broad zone coverage, Nacua has amassed a 0.38 TPRR, 3.59 YPRR, and 0.70 FP/RR. He has been nothing short of remarkable in all major splits the Panthers utilize defensively, making this one of the best on-paper spots on the slate. In a vacuum, Nacua is my top pay-up option on the slate. The icing on the cake is that his red-zone role improves drastically when opposing defenses remain in zone, with his five red-zone targets in that split actually leading the team, which is bonkers considering the red-zone role that Davante Adams has commanded for the Rams this season. His 0.58 expected fantasy points per route run (XFP/RR) against zone in the red zone also leads the team. Because I expect the Rams to increase their emphasis on 11-personnel given the personnel available to them this week, we’re liable to see a hit in route partipation for Davis Allen and Terrance Ferguson, with Colby Parkinson the most well-rounded tight end on the roster. 

HOW CAROLINA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• The Vikings will start rookie QB Max Brosmer in this game as J.J. McCarthy is set to miss at least one week with a concussion.
• Minnesota’s defense has been decent this season from an efficiency perspective, but struggles to hold up over the course of a game due to the offense’s struggles.
• Seattle has been outstanding at home this year and has destroyed multiple opponents that were heavy underdogs in similar spots. 
• Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker III has been used at an increasing rate in recent weeks and is not on the injury report this week.
• Seattle’s passing game works primarily through WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is in the midst of a historic season.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How minnesota Will Try To Win ::

Minnesota’s embattled second year QB J.J. McCarthy suffered a concussion at the end of last week’s loss to Green Bay and will miss at least one game as he recovers. This is the second time this season in which McCarthy has had an injury pop up after a humiliating performance, which has the conspiracy theorists out in full force, convinced this is a “soft benching” due to the complete ineptitude McCarthy has displayed for most of his first season as Minnesota’s starter. I was skeptical of these claims the first time around, but after having to watch McCarthy play football for the last month, I can see it. Regardless of the reason (he could actually be concussed, and also the team has seen enough), we don’t have to see him attempt to play QB this week.

The result is the first career start for former Minnesota Gopher QB Max Brosmer. The team reportedly loved Brosmer’s performance this offseason and he did well in the preseason. He has the advantage of an elite supporting cast and an offensive system that every QB (except McCarthy) has found success in over the last five seasons. It shouldn’t be possible to be as bad as McCarthy has been recently, so in reality, the offense should get a little boost this week, as the things I would expect from Brosmer would be better accuracy and timing than McCarthy was providing. Brosmer is likely to be focused on getting the ball to his studs at WR, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, as well as dependable tight end T.J. Hockenson. I would expect the Vikings to try to create quick first-read passes for Brosmer on early downs to set up manageable second and third downs that don’t let Seattle just tee off on him. The worst thing they could do would be “establishing the run” on first down and leaving him with a bunch of predictable “2nd and 12” or “3rd and 9” situations against a ferocious Seattle defense. The Seahawks are third in the NFL in defensive DVOA and third in yards per play allowed, while ranking top-4 against both the run and the pass. They form a formidable challenge for Minnesota in all areas and the Vikings are likely to be focused on moving the ball methodically and sustaining drives while controlling the game script and tempo.

How Seattle Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• This game has huge playoff implications in the AFC with both teams in the Wild Card hunt and within striking distance of their respective division lead.
• Pittsburgh has lost four of its last six games and has not allowed an opponent to score over 21 points in any of its victories this season.
• Aaron Rodgers will be back at quarterback for the Steelers after a 1.5-game absence with a broken left wrist.
• The Bills have been a “Jekyll and Hyde” team this season, posting huge games in wins and laying complete duds in other spots.
• Buffalo’s offensive line issues loom large over their potential to score points and the overall game environment.

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How buffalo Will Try To Win ::

The Bills enter Week 13 with a 7-4 record, which would be great for many teams but has been a bit disappointing for a team that is always in the Super Bowl discussion and has very high expectations. Their record itself is not the only thing troubling, but the stark splits in how this team performs truly stand out. Buffalo has scored 28+ points in all seven of their victories, while scoring 20 points or less in all four of their losses. Obviously, the more points a team scores, the more likely they are to win, but the drastic nature of these splits and the fact that there is really no in-between seems like it will be a problem for the Bills to reach the heights they envisioned when the season began. Their defense has been somewhat consistently disappointing, as they have been gashed in the running game all year (only the Giants are worse in run defense) and they have only held the Jets, Saints, and Panthers under 21 points.

The last time we saw the Bills offense, they were getting curb-stomped by the Texans elite defensive front. Buffalo suffered injuries to their offensive line in that game and appears likely to be without both starting offensive tackles (who are their best overall linemen) for this game. Pittsburgh’s defensive front is above average and has been very good this season in certain spots, particularly when their opponent does not have elite receivers who can get open quickly. In the Texans game, the Bills often had all five skill players going out on pass routes and left their five linemen to block the Texans, mostly in individual matchups. It did not go well. The Texans elite defensive front was able to consistently get pressure without blitzing, which made finding open receivers a nightmare for Josh Allen and he was unable to escape their standout pass rushers, as he was sacked 8 times and took countless other hits. Buffalo will need to find a better way to execute their passing game and protect Allen if they want to have offensive success this week.

James Cook is second in the NFL in rushing yards, but he will also suffer from the losses on the offensive line and is facing a Pittsburgh run defense that has been very good recently. The Steelers have held three of their last four opponents under four yards per carry, including Jonathan Taylor and the Colts. The offensive line issues pose a massive problem for Buffalo, whose offense has structurally been succeeding by controlling the line of scrimmage and leaning heavily on Allen and Cook, with everyone else having things created from the success that those two have. Khalil Shakir is Buffalo’s top wide receiver and had a big game against the Texans, specifically making huge plays after the catch. He has been inconsistent this season, with three games of under 40 receiving yards and only two of 70 or more. The Bills may get tight end Dalton Kincaid back from his multi-week absence after he practiced in a limited fashion Thursday and Friday. His addition would be huge for a team struggling to find itself offensively and may allow the Bills to run more “heavy” formations with multiple tight ends, which would help both their running game and pass protection. The Steelers defense is ascending, and the Bills offense is in turmoil. They will need Josh Allen to work to create offense and sustain drives in this one while avoiding the negative plays that are drive killers and cost them against Houston.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike johnson >>

• The Raiders fired their offensive coordinator this week after another embarrassing outing where they were unable to move the ball.
• The Chargers should be fresh for this game as they are coming off their Week 12 bye, but the last time we saw them play they looked horrible in a 35-6 loss to Jacksonville.
• Las Vegas is allowing Geno Smith to get hit and take sacks at an astronomical rate in recent weeks. 
• Los Angeles rookie running back Omarion Hampton will miss another game, leaving Kimani Vidal in a feature back role in a good matchup.
• The Chargers offense has struggled recently in large part due to their offensive line injuries, but gets a reprieve against a Raiders defense that lacks pressure.

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How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

The Raiders offense has been a mess this season and there is no way to sugarcoat it. They rank last in rushing offense DVOA and second to last in passing offense DVOA, struggling to move the ball consistently or find explosive plays. They took a somewhat expected step this week in ending offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s return to the NFL rather abruptly, firing him early in the week and leaving his duties to Greg Olson, who ironically has held the same position for the Raiders two other times before, in 2013-2014 and 2018-2021. The issues Las Vegas is facing are systemic and unlikely to change in just a week, if at all, but given the level of ineptitude it isn’t all that surprising.

Entering Week 13, the Raiders clearly have three legitimate offensive weapons. They are rookie RB Ashton Jeanty, second year TE Brock Bowers, and speedy WR Tre Tucker. We should expect the team’s usage to funnel primarily through those three players, with a renewed emphasis on the running game under Olson’s play calling. This matchup actually sets up fairly well for this, as the Chargers have had massive struggles in run defense and operating as one of the bigger “run funnels” in the NFL. Los Angeles ranks 6th in pass defense DVOA, but 26th in run defense DVOA. Simply “running it more” is unlikely to fix things immediately for the Raiders, as their biggest issue is their league worst offensive line that ranks 32nd in the NFL in adjusted-line-yards per rush attempt. The matchup is positive, but Jeanty has averaged under four yards per carry in all but two games this season and hasn’t gone over that mark since Week 5. 

The run game struggles have led to Las Vegas having the 5th highest pass rate over expectation in the last month, but that hasn’t fixed things. The Chargers defensive scheme plays primarily zone coverage shells and blitzes at a very low rate, ranking 30th in the league in blitz rate. The Chargers have allowed the fewest pass plays of 20+ yards this season and are very effective at limiting explosive plays, which actually should suit the Raiders pretty well, considering their offensive line struggles. In addition to the poor run blocking, the Raiders rank 30th in PFF pass blocking grade and have allowed Geno Smith to be sacked on an astounding 15% of his drop-backs in the last three weeks. When there is a coaching change, you can expect some level of philosophical approach, and the obvious one here is a more run-based attack with their usage focused on Jeanty and Bowers, with some quick-hitters to get the ball to the speedy Tucker, also likely in this spot.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football has the Broncos visiting the Commanders for a 43.5 total game with Denver favored by 5.5 points. The Broncos are road favorites largely due to the Commanders injury situation, as Jayden Daniels is still hurt and out (though, shockingly, he’s expected to return this season? Which…wow). That leaves Marcus Mariota quarterbacking the Commanders against one of the league’s top 3 defenses…yikes. 

WASHINGTON

We’ll start with the Washington backfield, where Chris Rodriguez out-touched Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt 15 to 9 last week and also ran more pass routes than RB3 and passing down back Jeremy McNichols. Rodriguez has the most robust role of this split backfield, but he still only played 45% of the offensive snaps (against 27% for Bill and 25% for McNichols), so it’s not like he’s a bell cow. At $6,400, he’s probably somewhere between appropriately priced and maybe a bit too cheap – that’s just a low price for a starting RB with mid-teens touch upside – even though it’s a really tough matchup. He’s a reasonable play, while Bill and McNichols both look overpriced for their shrinking roles. I’d max 1 Commanders running back here as it’s just an awful spot (or if you don’t want to be quite so restrictive, you could max 1 of Bill and McNichols while letting Rodriguez be paired with either of them). 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, the matchup doesn’t get much better as Denver is allowing the 2nd fewest yards per pass attempt in the league, but at least the Commanders will be getting Terry McLaurin back. We also need to note that under Mariota the Commanders have been an extremely low volume offense with pass attempts of between 21-30 in all of his full games (four of those games were losses in which we might normally expect elevated volume). That low volume makes it tough for any Commander to find a ceiling, but it’s Showdown, which means we need to play at least 1. With full practices under his belt, I expect he’ll be close to a full normal role, which at $8k puts him firmly in play. If he comes back to a full role, he’s underpriced compared to his peers and is my favorite Washington pass catcher, and though there is some risk here that he might not have a full role immediately, I hope that ends up keeping the field off of him a bit. Deebo Samuel is a really tough click at $10k as he’s priced up for life without McLaurin, and while he is (and should be) the highest projected Washington skill position player, the gap between him and McLaurin isn’t worth $2k salary. He’s a pay-up to be contrarian option who will likely at least be very low owned (and he does have plenty of upside with the ball in his hands). I will note I’m not sure who star Denver cornerback Pat Surtain will spend most of his time on – it might be more on Deebo, it might be more on McLaurin, which would boost the profile of the other. As such, given the low pass volume and difficult matchup, I’m personally going to be using a max 1 rule of Deebo and McLaurin. With McLaurin back, I expect that pushes Chris Moore, Jaylin Lane, and Robbie Chosen all into rotational roles. I’d max 1 of these guys as they’ll all be competing for snaps, and they’re all pretty thin punt options. Moore would be my favorite here as he’s a deep threat guy and can pay off his modest $2,800 salary in a single catch.

Tight end Zach Ertz has a lot of involvement in the offense, and thus a high floor, but at this point in his career has fairly modest per-target upside, and his price is inexplicably $7,000, the highest we’ve seen for him in a Showdown this season. At a cheaper price, I’d be much more interested, but at $7k, I’m not very high on him. TE2 John Bates has 10 targets on the season, most coming lately, but with McLaurin returning, that is likely to ding his involvement in the passing game some. He can still be played as a dart throw, but he’s a thin one. 

DENVER

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 13 wraps up with the Giants visiting the Patriots for a 46.5 total game with New England installed as an 8.5 favorite. The big news here is the Giants getting back Jaxson Dart (poor Jameis goes back to the bench after a solid performance last week, but maybe that’s enough to help him get a contract next year). 

NEW ENGLAND

On the New England side of things, Rhamondre Stevenson returned from injury last week, and he did manage to eat away at TreVeyon Henderson’s workload a bit. Henderson played between 75% and 88% of the snaps in the three games Rhamondre missed while handling 20, 15, and 24 opportunities, then dipped to 65% last week, though that still came with a robust 22 opportunities. Henderson has certainly cemented himself as the lead back, but Rhamondre’s return does take a bit of the upper ceiling off of him. Still, as a big home favorite in an elite matchup against a Giants defense that is dead last in the league in yards per carry allowed (by a WIDE margin – 5.9 to 5.3 for Buffalo, which is the next worst) – things sure line up for the Patriots backfield to smash, and $8,000 is comically cheap for Henderson given his role and matchup. It is really just a clear pricing error on DK’s part – it’s like they didn’t realize how his workload remained robust even after Rhamondre returned. He’s the top skill position play on the slate. He’s going to be really, really chalky, but he’s an awesome on-paper play. Rhamondre at $5k is a little spendy for an RB2, but the elite matchup and potential blowout run keep him in play. It is at least within the realm of possibility that Rhamondre was limited because it was his first game back, and that he assumes a bigger role this week. If that’s the case, maybe Henderson disappoints, but in that case, Rhamondre is then significantly underpriced. I think it would be reasonable to have a rule to play at least 1 Patriots running back in every lineup. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, the Giants aren’t much better on defense, and Drake Maye has been playing at a near-MVP level this year. The only real knock against him is that he has yet to even reach the 300 passing yard mark because the Patriots have blown out so many opponents. That’s prevented Maye from being in many tournament-winning lineups on main slates, but obviously, in a Showdown, things are different and he’s an awesome play. The challenge, as always, is who the heck we stack him with. New England’s leaders in snaps and routes are Kayshon Boutte and…Mack Hollins (lol), while offseason acquisition Stef Diggs is stuck in the 50-60% snap range. At least New England has mostly condensed things down to those three guys, with DeMario Douglas and Kyle Williams largely disappearing last week in a competitive game, though it’s possible they could pop back up if the Patriots crush the Giants. The funny thing about this wide receiver corps is that the two “main” WRs who are on the field the most absolutely suck at earning targets. Boutte is the ostensible WR1, but his target rate is just 13.4%, while Hollins is at  17.7%. Boutte has some explosiveness to his game, and with an awesome 16.4 yard aDOT, he has a very high ceiling, though that comes with a floor of literally zero, which is awfully strange for a WR1. Hollins is slightly safer due to his higher target rate, but does not carry the same sort of ceiling. And then we come to Diggs, who is $8,800 despite being a part-time player. Diggs DOES earn targets while on the field – he has six games of 7+ targets (Boutte has 1); his route participation rate is just 73%, but he’s at least earning targets when on the field with a 26% target rate. It’s tough to be super enthusiastic about playing a guy who’s off the field so much when he’s also the most expensive pass catcher on the team. I’ll probably somewhat shy away from Diggs and favor the Pats ground game, but it’s worth considering that might be a very popular position and lead to Diggs being pretty low owned; we’ll have to see what the ownership projections look like, but at least for now I’m viewing Diggs as something of a pay up to be contrarian option (if he’s under 30-35%, I’d consider that low and would be more interested). Douglas and Williams are punt options, with Douglas being the superior play, but they’re both pretty thin unless you think they get more run in a blowout.

At tight end, Hunter Henry finally popped back up into fantasy relevance last week in the best possible matchup after seven straight weeks of single-digit DK scores…just in time to see a big price bump all the way up to $7,400. It’s really tough for me to see Henry paying off this price tag unless he lucks into a multiple TD game or the Patriots elevate their passing volume, as his two best weeks of the season came when Maye attempted 35 and 37 passes, his 2nd and 3rd most of the year, which resulted in 10 and 11 Henry targets and 20+ DK points. Henry pretty clearly fits best on rosters built around the Giants upsetting the Patriots or at least playing from ahead for part of the game and forcing New England into a higher volume passing attack. TE2 Austin Hooper has 19 targets on the year and is a dart throw, though probably a slightly better one than Douglas or Williams. 

NEW YORK