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The Scroll Week 5

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    Magico’s Money-Makers

    El Magico is a high-stakes tournament champion who focuses on single-entry/three-entry max // small-field play

    Through this article, I will be highlighting a small player pool that is composed of players that rank high in my proprietary model. There are several factors this model takes into consideration such as: DVP (Defense Vs Position), OL/DL matchup, WR/CB matchup, game pace, Vegas totals, target share, value score, air yard opportunities and a few secret sauce metrics I can’t discuss further. As we move forward I will do my best to point out some of the higher ranked players for the OWS community to take into consideration as part of their own research. When it comes to game selection, I would encourage this player pool to be used in single entry, 3-Max smaller field tournaments. 

    QB:

    Kyler Murray:

    If you want a QB with a high ceiling on your roster this week, this is your guy (no Josh Allen and no Patrick Mahomes on this slate). The model points to a ceiling game for Murray against a SF team that is hemorrhaging points to the QB position, allowing three top ten finishes in the last four games. The matchup could start slow but it could quickly turn into a back and forth track meet, especially with Trey Lance on the other side. Another metric assisting Murray in this matchup is the Niners weak run defense, which is Murray’s strength, and the model likes that. I think a sneaky way to play Murray in this matchup is to pair him with DeAndre Hopkins, which does sound obvious, but Hopkins is projecting for extremely low ownership in this potential shoot-out. As the week goes by, ownership in this game is remaining low, and I am extremely bullish on this game environment.

    Consideration: Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence

    RB:

    Ezekiel Elliot:

    The Cowboys own the highest implied total on the main slate, and Zeke has reclaimed this backfield and the high value touches around the end zone. We are all pretty used to seeing the Cowboys airing the ball out over the last couple of years but as of late they have tilted towards relying on the ground game. Reading this week’s Edge writeup you will see that the Cowboys carry a “57% neutral-rush rate over the last three weeks ranking them first in the NFL.” So let’s run some high-level observations: home favorite, run-first team, improving defense, favorable OL/DL matchup, goal line duties, leverage against his wide receiver teammates = Give me all the Zeke I can get this week.

    Leonard Fournette:

    Fournette was surprisingly ranking pretty high on the model a couple of weeks ago but we were too early. He now makes a return to MMM as a solidified lead back vs a run funnel Miami defense. Fournette played over 80% of the Buc’s snaps in Week 4 and accounted for 138 scrimmage yards. His price is too cheap for this type of usage and matchup. Unfortunately, he does project for very high ownership, but at this price, he is too hard to pass when it comes to single and 3 max entries. I expect to be overweight and will keep an eye on Giovanni Bernard’s injury report as his absence would further boost Fournette’s opportunities. 

    Consideration: Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Aaron Jones

    WR:

    Justin Jefferson:

    This seems like a pristine matchup for the Vikings, and Jefferson in particular as their offensive centerpiece since Dalvin Cook will either not play or be limited. The depleted Lions defense is allowing close to ten yards per pass attempt and they have the league’s second worst first down conversion rate. Jefferson leads the Vikings in YPA and first down conversions. The stars are aligning. The Lions offense is talented enough to make this a competitive game which should force the Vikings to stay aggressive in a get-well spot, after a disastrous game vs the tough Browns defense.

    Deebo Samuel:

    I started looking at ownership projections on Wednesday and was surprised to see that Deebo was not projecting to be as highly owned as I thought. What am I missing? Is he too close to the “elite players?” Is he too expensive? He is priced as WR7 on this slate (which does not include Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, and DK Metcalf) but ranks third in fantasy points per game, and he now has a great matchup in a desirable game environment. I think what he lacks is sex appeal, he is not a sexy play, but he is a damn good play. Here is a half-game of football stat line: 4 receptions / 107 yards / 2 TDs, is that not sexy? Was that a one-off?  Well, Deebo leads the league in yards per reception, yards after the catch, total receiving yards, and now has an improvement at QB with Trey Lance.

    Marvin Jones/Laviska Shenault:

    Henry + one or two Jaguars receivers are as clean a stack as you can get this weekend. The Jaguars target distribution went from somewhat of a guessing game to a much more consolidated distribution. The Titans D has been extremely vulnerable to the pass game and I expect that to carry over this week. The best individual matchup lies on Shenault’s side as the Titans are allowing the most points to slot receivers in the entire NFL, as well as second most to the WR position as a whole. I think the field will lean towards Laviska due to the price tag and last week’s eruption performance but I personally like Jones for his route tree, aDOT, and red zone usage.

    Consideration: Davante Adams, Kenny Golladay, Darnell Mooney

    TE:

    George Kittle:

    Note: Kittle is currently listed as doubtful

    Kittle sits at the top of the model at the TE position mostly due to the amount of missed opportunities he has been piling up, accounting for 20 targets in the last two weeks which is elite usage for an elite player that now finds himself in an elite matchup as a coiled spring ready to explode. This play is similar to the Kyler’s and Deebo’s, underowned in a great spot with a beatable matchup.

    Dalton Shultz:

    I am going to want exposure to the Cowboys vs Giants game and I think this is a great way to do so, as Shultz has cemented himself as the Cowboys #1 tight end, out-targeting Blake Jarwin 23-13 this season along with three touchdowns, most of which have come the last two weeks. Arrows are pointing up for Shultz who now faces the Giants, ranked 24th in DVOA against the pass, and weaker inside than outside.

    Consideration: Mike Gesicki

    Magic Stack:

    Kyler Murray /  Deandre Hopkins / Deebo Samuel

    Bonus Stack:

    Derrick Henry / Marvin Jones and or Laviska Shenault 

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    End Around

    Hilow is a game theory expert and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

    MACRO SLATE VIEW::

    The first aspect that needs to be understood entering Week 5 is how dynamic the state of the slate will be overnight Saturday and into Sunday, primarily due to the multitude of questionable players we have. All of Dalvin Cook, Giovani Bernard, Joe Mixon, Chase Edmonds, Courtland Sutton, DeVante Parker, George Kittle, and TJ Hockenson seem legitimately questionable or doubtful as of Friday night, and that list doesn’t even include the players listed as questionable but likely to play (like Amari Cooper, Ezekiel Elliott, Antonio Gibson, D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams, and Melvin Gordon III). This makes projecting the chalk build a bit more tricky than a standard week and also makes individual pieces of chalk come with a great deal of asterisks, but we’ll do our best to capture and convey the salient points and thought processes here. 

    RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

    LEONARD FOURNETTE:

    Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. The big picture with Fournette is that he is a much better play in a vacuum if Giovani Bernard misses this contest (his projection moves from five to seven targets with Gio out to two to three with Gio in), yet we can be all but sure the majority of people who are currently building rosters that include Fournette are not likely to pivot should Gio play. The leverage here actually comes in the form of an underweight or full fade position if Gio does end up playing. 

    DERRICK HENRY:

    Restrictive chalk. I talked a bit about how I’m viewing this crazy slate in the Oracle, in that “guaranteed points” gain additional emphasis for me this week. Derrick Henry is top of that list as far as guaranteed points go. 

    JAMES ROBINSON:

    Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Same story as Fournette, in that James Robinson is a much better play in a vacuum without the presence of Carlos Hyde taking eight to 10 expected touches. Hyde’s injury designation was removed and he will play this week. 

    DAVANTE ADAMS:

    Restrictive chalk. Same story as Derrick Henry.

    AMARI COOPER/CEEDEE LAMB:

    Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Is the field really going to be this slow to realize the changing dynamics of this offense? To spell that out a bit more, Dallas ranks first in the league in situation-neutral rush rates over the past three weeks (the three without Michael Gallup), meaning both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb will require additional volume in order to provide a GPP-worthy score. This makes both best utilized in game stacks or with a correlated pairing from the other side, yet most won’t build that way this week.

    EVAN ENGRAM:

    Expansive chalk. Evan Engram chalk week!?!? Sign me up for the full fade. Even better, I am absolutely salivating at the thought of the field being on a Dallas wide receiver with an Engram bring-back. At least bring it back with Kadarius Toney or Kenny Golladay, please. Okay, rant over. The optimal bring-back if playing Engram is Ezekiel Elliott, and the optimal bring-back if playing a Dallas wide receiver is Saquon Barkley. Evan Engram is not optimal, period.

    RICKY SEALS-JONES:

    Expansive chalk. Pay down at tight end week, got it. 

    ALEXANDER MATTISON (if Dalvin out):

    Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. The top running back play on paper should Dalvin Cook miss.

    NOAH FANT (if Sutton out):

    Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Although not currently projected for ownership, I expect Fant to work his way into top-three-at-the-position ownership should Courtland Sutton miss this week, which would leave Fant as the primary pass-catcher against a pass-funnel defense. 

    CHALK BUILD::


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    JM’s Player Grid

    JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat) who is focusing this year on single-entry/three-entry max


    OWS Fam ::
    This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate.

    This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing.


    The Grid ::

    Explained >>>>

    Bottom-Up Build

    :: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”

    Blue Chips

    :: these are my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; players who have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

    Build-Arounds

    :: these are games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

    Bonuses

    :: these are players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective


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    Bottom-Up Build

    Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (above).

    Correlated Bottom-Up Build
    DK Salary Remaining :: $6K

    Trevor Lawrence
    Alexander Mattison
    Derrick Henry
    A.J. Brown
    Laviska Shenault
    Kadarius Toney
    Curtis Samuel
    Ricky Seals-Jones
    Cardinals

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    Blue Chips

    Davante Adams

    Only seven teams have attempted fewer passes than the Packers this year.

    No player in the NFL has averaged more targets per game than Davante Adams this year.

    You think he might be the focal point of this offense through the air?

    The Bengals rank 11th in pass defense DVOA, but outside of a relatively tough Week 1 test against the Vikings, they have faced the Bears, Steelers, and Jags. Adam Thielen went 9-92-2 in this matchup in Week 1. Chase Claypool went 9-96-0 with Diontae Johnson on the sidelines. This is a winnable matchup for the engine of the Packers offense, giving him the most confident floor/ceiling range of the higher-priced players on the Week 5 slate.

    Burrow+

    Note: This is not a Blue Chip, but is attached to a Blue Chip in Davante. If this were not attached to Davante, it would be in the Build-Around section.

    Tacked onto the Davante Adams play is a lot of interest on my end in the Bengals passing attack. If Mixon plays, this interest will be slightly muted; but especially if Mixon misses, this is a spot where we should see one of the Bengals’ “big three” wideouts post an excellent price-considered score, while another should post a solid score. Burrow plus two of his pass catchers is in play for me this week (with Adams on the other side), and even if I don’t end up with Burrow, I’ll have Chase // Boyd // Tee circling my builds as combo plays opposite Davante.

    Titans Trio

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    The Oracle :: Strategy Q&A

    Welcome to The Oracle! :: The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS!

    Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

    Week 5 Topics

    1. Limited Pool Of Dual-Threat QBs

    2. A Very Unique Week

    3. King Henry…Again?

    4. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”


    1. Limited Pool Of Dual-Threat QBs

    The Question ::

    We have gotten used to the so-called “Konami Cheat Code” quarterbacks — QBs who can scorch the box score both on the ground and through the air. With so many dual-threat QBs missing from this slate, however, there are only four quarterbacks(!!!) on this slate who have averaged even 25 rushing yards per game on the year. In order from highest yards per game to lowest, those QBs are Jalen Hurts (56.5), Daniel Jones (47.0), and tied for third: Ryan Tannehill and Kyler Murray (27.25). How (if at all) does this change your approach to QB in Week 5?

    The Answers ::
    JM >>

    There are two ways I’ll be looking at this:

    1) Which quarterback (if any) has the best shot at a huge game on the ground — thus creating a potential “separator” from the other QBs on the slate. Hurts is the quarterback (same as last week) likeliest to lead all QBs in rushing yards this week — but Jones and Kyler both have a better shot at a multi-touchdown game on the ground. All three of these guys will be in the mix for me as potential “separators” from the rest of the QB pack.

    2) Just because one of these guys could be a separator does not mean one of them necessarily WILL be a separator. This opens opportunity for a pocket passer (or a sneakier, less-likely rushing bet) to be the top scorer or the best value of all the QBs on the slate. I’ll likely build three rosters this week (with the core of one roster already spoken for — see my answer to Question 3), and I’ll almost certainly have one of Hurts // Jones // Kyler on one. But I’ll also be leaving things open this week to scoop a QB I might not typically scoop, in the hopes of finding a separator in a lower-profile spot.

    Xandamere >>

    Overall the way I approach QB is that I want exposure to guys who have slate-breaking ceilings (just like every position, really). On this slate, the only QBs who can put up scores that nobody else can match are Kyler, Hurts, and Daniel Jones (I cannot believe I just wrote that), and I’ll be playing all of them.

    With the exception of the slatebreaker crew, what I look for in a quarterback is stackability. Hilow and I talked about this on the Saturday pod last week when we were discussing Zach Wilson. Neither of us thought Wilson was a strong in-a-vacuum QB play, but the Jets looked like they were going to have a very narrow distribution of volume last week with multiple receivers out, and so using Wilson plus one or two receivers was a good way to potentially get multiple things right with one decision. If I’m not trying to maximize ceiling with my QB, then I’m trying to maximize floor and predictability (Trevor Lawrence makes a LOT of sense from this perspective).

    Sonic >>

    As an MME player who prefers to build 4-stacks with pocket passers, I welcome the versatility that using a rushing QB provides. Fairly often, these guys bring just one pass catcher with them en route to their ceiling games. This allows for an additional roster spot to bring in a preferred player from my core as opposed to betting so much on a full game environment. You’ll notice that when you set an optimizer to pair “at least one” pass catcher with each QB, it will rarely give you more than one. Double stacking your QB and adding a bring-back is essentially banking on that game going ham AND doing so via the four players you’ve chosen to stack. Playing skinny stacks (just one WR) allows you to play nice with your optimizer and give it a chance to pick the best dollar-for-dollar play based on the parameters you’ve assigned. A blend of both in my portfolio feels just right.

    Hilow >>

    For me, it comes down to the overall state of each slate. This slate feels extremely thin at quarterback so there’s two +EV ways for it to play out:

    1. One of the few remaining high-rushing-upside QBs can absolutely trounce the scoring of the rest of the field, and
    2. A cheaper QB with not as much rushing upside can match the scoring output of that top rushing-aided tier.

    Also for this week, we’re being gifted a rushing quarterback at only $5,700 with the news that Jimmy Garoppolo will miss Week 5. I will likely have a spread ownership approach this week to take advantage of both of those unique outcomes individually.

    Larejo >>

    This notion makes me want to play a pocket-passer more, is that wrong? Have to love Jalen Hurts this week, but many others will as well. Tannehill is probably in the easiest spot to project for yardage, not touchdowns. But this makes me like guys like Joe Burrow and Kirk Cousins even more, as the rushing yards from a QB narrative gains steam.

    MJohnson >>

    I will be focusing on two types of QBs: 

    1. Those who I believe have a good chance at the highest raw score at the position — Kyler, Dak, Hurts, Tannehill 
    2. Young QBs with upside who I think have great shots at producing top-5 raw scores and being the top overall points-per-dollar QB — Fields, Lawrence, Lance.
    Majesstik >>

    I’m not so sure we can rule out Taylor Heinicke, Trey Lance, and even Trevor Lawrence here when talking about dual-threat QBs. All three of them are on the cheaper end of the salary spectrum and all three can run in a touchdown and/or pick up 25+ yards on the ground. So, my approach to QB this week is mostly going back to the well of looking for cheaper QBs that have the rushing boost like the three I mentioned, as well as considering Daniel Jones and Ryan Tannehill who are in matchups that could see them move the ball on foot and by air.


    2. A Very Unique Week

    The Question ::

    One of the clearest ways to create a path to a first-place finish is by finding a spot where you can “bet on ONE thing in order to get several roster spots right” — with the most obvious example of this being “building around a game environment that has a shot at soaring past all others on the slate” (explosive game environments, of course, lead to both teams remaining aggressive deep into the contest — elevating the potential for “had to have it” scores, especially through the air). Against that background :: this is a very unique week, as we have only six teams with Vegas-implied totals over 25 points, and three of those teams (the Vikings, Buccaneers, and Cowboys) are favored by seven or more — with the Vikings and Cowboys also showing that they would prefer to build their offense around the run when in control of a game. Even the other “teams projected for more than 25 points” come with their own issues :: The Packers are slow-paced with low overall volume, and with a large chunk of their volume flowing through a pair of alphas (thus lowering viable opportunities for branching beyond the alphas into purer “game environment” bets) // the Titans have a solid shot at posting the most team points on the slate vs the Jags, but the driving force behind such a game would seem likelier to be Derrick Henry than any pieces of the passing attack // and the Cardinals — as explored in this week’s NFL Edge writeup — lead the NFL in scoring, but they have been such a spread-it-out offense that big tourney performances (outside of Kyler) require a lot of guesswork, and have yet to reach “had to have it” status. Put it all together, and this is a VERY unique week. Of course, a “very unique week” is beneficial for us, as most of our competition will either follow their typical approaches, or will be flustered by the strangeness of the slate in which they find themselves; but in order to fully take advantage of that edge, we need a sharp approach ourselves. With all of that in mind, how would you sum up the macro state of this slate, and how might you find yourself attacking things this week?


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    Willing To Lose

    Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

    In DFS tournaments with entries in the thousands, and tens of thousands, on paper matchups do not mean much. I talked in this space a few weeks ago about how to successfully leverage JM’s concept of biased discomfort plays by stating that inherently, this means playing some guys with light reasoning. If you want to be contrarian and find the leverage plays which you can attack, you cannot come to this space expecting multi-level, logical reasons why player X or player Y is due to hit at low ownership on Sunday. Biased discomfort gets into the fact that clicking on a player’s name makes you feel thin and fishy. But often, it’s those plays (Cordarrelle Patterson and Randall Cobb last week, for instance) that can help you win tournaments.

    As you read the NFL Edge and the other amazing pieces each week on OWS, you should not search for three or more reasons why a player can blow up. If there are underlying stats, and three or four or more reasons why a player is going to have a good game, then that player should be chalky. If I were giving you Randall Cobb last week, it could have been as simple as Marquez Valdes-Scantling is out, one less body on the field, and Aaron Rodgers historically trusts Cobb in the red zone. Similarly, on Cordalle Patterson, the argument would have been the Falcons scheme him touches, he has a solid receiving floor, and if the defense hones in on Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts, then Patterson could break out. Some weeks the explanations will be long (with advanced metrics plentiful), and some weeks they will be short. Sometimes, the more concise and basic the reasoning for teeing up a player, the better that play can be to help you take down a tournament.

    Big Bob Tonyan

    Remember last week, when we all logically thought through how the Packers would attack Pittsburgh, after placing MVS on IR? The logical places to go were the best WR blocker in the league, Allen Lazard, and our 2020 darling, tight end Robert Tonyan. And then Cobb showed up, played less than half the snaps, and scored two touchdowns. Meanwhile, Tonyan and Lazard were on the field 78% and 79% respectively. The Packers seemed to have deployed Lazard in the MVS role, and kept Tonyan on the field for his highest snap rate of the season. With TJ Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick to contend with last week, the high snap rate for Tonyan probably wasn’t going to matter as he was asked to chip the edge rushers and covered by Minkah a fair amount. This opened things up for Aaron Jones and Cobb.

    Fast forward to this week, and a matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals. They should get Jessie Bates back this week at safety, but it’s safe to say Tonyan’s matchup is much improved. We haven’t seen his red zone role grow yet, he has ZERO green zone targets through four weeks. But I fully expect the Bengals to focus on bracketing Davante Adams, which should leave Tonyan in man coverage often. At his elevated snap rate, I like his odds of paying off his salary this week.

    Nick Chubb

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    Sonic’s MME Pool

    Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play


    OWS Fam!

    Here are my micro thoughts on damn near every player on this week’s slate. Lots of decisions still looming due to injury news at the RB position.

    Stay vigilant!

    Bold Green indicates my overall fondness for the play. I’ll be trying to be above the field on those guys. 

    I marked some of the injury-related RBs in a lovely pink-ish hue. 

    Enjoy. 

    LFG!!!!!


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    SuperDraft Strategy

    Xandamere is one of the most respected Showdown minds in DFS, and focuses his Main Slate play on mass-multi-entry

    Week 5 and Superdraft is still rolling out this nice $250k GPP despite it not having filled any week so far. As I keep harping on, overlay is such a massively +EV thing, and we should be taking advantage of it wherever we find it.

    Before you read this article, you should read my NFL Superdraft Primer to get a basic understanding of the site, how it’s different from Draftkings and Fanduel, and the strategy elements that come into play. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can get $100 free with a minimum $100 deposit!! (Promo Code :: OWS)

    First, all the normal NFL strategy about stacking and correlation still applies. It definitely makes sense to strongly consider pairing your QB with a receiver. Game stacks are entirely viable here. The good news is you don’t have to change your entire approach to be successful on Superdraft. All you have to do is change your mentality of player selection, since the multiplier introduces so many different strategy dynamics, as the primer goes over. With that, let’s take a look at Week 3. I’m not going to go game by game here (we have the Edge for that!), but rather, position by position, trying to spot where I think there are good opportunities to leverage attractive scoring multipliers. 

    Quarterback:

    Trey Lance, if he starts, is the overall top QB option I’m looking at for this week. He’s high-risk as he could just flop, but at a 1.65x multiplier, I’m willing to take the risk. I’m also interested in Kirk Cousins at 1.35x (Vikings tied for the highest team total of the week), Tom Brady at 1.2x (Bucs also up there in team total), Aaron Rodgers at 1.25x, Daniel Jones at 1.4x (this is a potentially lucrative game environment and he’s easy to stack), and Burrow at 1.45x. I also want to go back to the well again with Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields. Those are my main ones but I’m happy to include most QBs if they’re stackable.

    Running Back:

    Derrick Henry with a 1x multiplier is tough for me to want to use, but Christian McCaffrey (if he plays) and Dalvin Cook (if it looks like he’ll get his full workload) are both very tempting at 1.15x. Otherwise, as per usual, I’m looking for higher-multiplier options for ceiling. Najee Harris (whose multiplier doesn’t seem to move despite strong performances), Leonard Fournette, Saquon Barkley (1.45x for Saquon!), Ezekiel Elliott, Chuba Hubbard (if no CMC), Austin Ekeler, D’Andre Swift, Damien Harris, and Aaron Jones are the guys I want here. If you want to take shots at James Conner at 1.7x if Chase Edmonds misses, or Elijay Mitchell if he’s active, you have my blessing.

    Wide Receiver:

    We’re starting to see more wide receivers “priced” smartly with fewer glaring multipliers. So, I’m looking here for ceiling and for stackability. For example, Tom Brady in a vacuum is a decent option with a 1.2x multiplier, but then when you look at his primary receivers with multipliers from 1.3x to 1.5x, he looks very stackable indeed. Trey Lance stacks well with Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk; Kirik Cousins with Adam Thielen and KJ Osborn (less so Justin Jefferson at 1.1x); Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase stack well with Joe Burrow; all the Giants receivers with Daniel Jones look attractive; Darnell Mooney and Allen Robinson with Justin Fields; and Devonta Smith with Hurts.

    Tight End:

    No Kelce on the slate and Waller with a 1x multiplier makes me think “ewwww” about this position. We know Waller has a 25+ point ceiling so I’m fine using him but as usual, I would prefer to incorporate tight ends into my game stacks. Dalton Schultz (or even Blake Jarwin) make for good bring backs on Daniel Jones stacks. Cameron Brate can be stacked with Brady; Tyler Conklin with Cousins; and Maxx Williams as a bring back with Lance. Tight end looks rough this week and I’d be happy to find 15 points here but with the high multipliers we see at this position, a cheap guy getting a touchdown and not much else can still push for 20.

    Overall Strategy

    On salary cap sites, when we look at stacks, we need to consider not just overall projection/ceiling but also salary. Stacking Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce is almost always a strong play in a vacuum, but they’re so expensive, even if they all have good games, you may not be able to build a tournament-winning roster around them. On Superdraft, it’s a similar dynamic. We need to consider multiplier adjusted ceiling and what it would take for each stack to put up tourney viable scores. Similar to the Chiefs stack example mentioned, stacking Rodgers to Davante Adams on Superdraft isn’t a play that couldn’t win you a tournament, but you would need massive ceiling performances at their multipliers. Same with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. As always, it’s okay to have some lower-multiplier plays on your rosters but make sure you’re only using a few. If you have a Rodgers to Adams stack, I probably wouldn’t want to use many other low-multiplier plays on that roster. On the other hand, some higher-multiplier options make for easy stackability.

    Stacking Ideas

    Here are some game stacks I want to build around this week:

    • Lance with Deebo or Aiyuk, considering James Conner, Rondale Moore, or Christian Kirk coming back (Conner mainly if Chase Edmonds is out). 
    • Hurts can be naked but can also be paired with Devonta Smith, and then the Panthers RB (whoever it is) or one of DJ Moore or Robby Anderson (who quietly saw 11 targets last week) coming back. 
    • Brady with one of his primary receivers and I’m not sure if I’d bother bringing back anyone on Miami here. If I did, it would be Waddle. 
    • Daniel Jones with one of his receivers (we’ll have to see who’s healthy but they all have nice multipliers) with one of Zeke, CeeDee Lamb, or Amari Cooper coming back. 
    • Joe Burrow with Chase or Higgins and then Aaron Jones or Davante coming back.
    • Mac Jones with Jakobi Meyers (he has to score a touchdown at some point….right?) and then Brandin Cooks coming back. 
    • Justin Fields with Darnell Mooney, probably without a bring-back here. 

    Go get some overlay!

    Edge Bets

    Jreas11 leverages research from the NFL Edge in order to replace DFS cash game play with profitable prop betting


    << Edge Bets Primer >>


    Week 4 Recap

    EDGE BETS Week 4: 1-3
    EDGE BETS 2021 Results: 6-9 (nice)

    Josh Allen: Over 36.5 Pass Attempts

    Result: Loss (29 Pass Attempts)

    Well, we’ve now seen two games where the Buffalo Bills defense posted shutouts through four games played in the 2021 season. These came against the Miami Dolphins and the Houston Texans. While the Bills do continue to pass at a high rate, they have shown that they are willing to use their running backs at an elevated rate in complete blowouts. We will file this away and use it in better Allen blow-up spots.

    Jameis Winston: Under 202.5 Passing Yards

    Result: Loss (226 Passing Yards)

    Jameis Winston compiled 226 passing yards over 23 attempts, completing 17 passes in a game where 10 New Orleans Saints caught passes. Unfortunately, one of the two total passing attempts to gain 20+ yards in this game went for 58 on a long pass play to Marquez Callaway. The 23 attempts were expected as Payton continued to limit Winston’s ability to lose the game, instead feeding Alvin Kamara 20+ carries weekly, but Winston did just enough here to get over the mark. 


    Jonathan Taylor: Over 15.5 Rush Attempts

    Result: Win (16 Rush Attempts)

    While Taylor did help us avoid the 0-4 by a single carry, he still has not received the workload many had expected leading into the 2021 season. This week, Marlon Mack accounted for 10 of the backfield’s 28 total carries (36%) in what could have been an attempt to showcase the veteran back and allow him the opportunity to increase his trade interest. Interestingly, Nyheim Hines played firmly behind Mack this week, seeing two rushes and three targets, catching two for five yards. Taylor received three targets, catching all of them for 11 yards and a touchdown. If Marlon Mack were to be traded, or the Indianapolis Colts decided to cut Mack, Taylor may have an opportunity to see increased usage going forward. 

    Antonio Gibson: Over 14.5 Rush Attempts

    Result: Loss (14 Rush Attempts)

    Antonio Gibson finished his Week 4 matchup with 14 of the 23 running back carries as J.D. McKissic siphoned seven carries, with Jaret Patterson earning two rushes of his own. This was a back and forth, one score game that presented a decent game script for Gibson, but it has become apparent the thoughts of CMC lite pushed by the coaching staff during the preseason are not on the horizon. With concerns of a shin stress fracture holding Gibson back, his workload may continue to be monitored throughout the season.

    Personal Player Props Bet


    Week 1: +10.0U

    Week 2: -1.2U

    Week 3: 0.0U (No bets placed, family weekend)

    Week 4: +4.65

    2021: +13.45U

    Week 5 Edge Bets

    Dak Prescott Under 33.5 Pass Attempts

    Book: Bet MGM (-118)

    Date Available: October 8th

    From Hilow:

    “Dallas leads the league in situation-neutral rush rates since Michael Gallup was placed on IR following Week 1.”

    “We should expect that standard plan of attack to continue against a Giants opponent ranked 29th in adjusted line yards on defense.”

    “Dallas should control this game with their surging defense and relentless ground attack.”

    “Their 57% situation-neutral rush rate over the last three weeks ranks first in the NFL over that time and their pace of play is a no-longer-elite 29.18 seconds per play (seventh in the NFL).”

    “After attempting 58 passes in Week 1, Dak has attempted only 27, 26, and 22 over the previous three weeks (aligning with both positive game scripts and Gallup’s absence), meaning the Giants would have to force Dallas’ hand in order for us to expect that volume to increase.”

    “With the shift in offensive philosophy to a team built around the run, against an opponent that should offer little resistance in that area, expect the Cowboys to handle this game with their surging defense and relentless run game.”

    From JM:

    “The Cowboys (as laid out above) have been a run-focused offense of late, and as touchdown favorites at home, it’s not particularly likely that they do anything differently here.”

    Reasy’s Reasoning:

    It looks like Vegas agrees with Hilow and JM in regards to the field not yet understanding the changes within the Dallas Cowboys offensive philosophies since Michael Gallup went down in Week 1. Over the last three weeks, Dak Prescott has attempted 27, 26, and 22 passes with an increased emphasis on the running game through Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard. Dallas is first in situation-neutral rush rate over the last three weeks (57%).  In their Week 5 matchup against the New York Giants, we can expect much of the same after looking at the elite 5.11 net-adjusted line yards metric in favor of the Cowboys. With Both Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard working to the side with trainers during Friday morning’s practice, I feel confident in projecting both players out for Week 5, increasing the likelihood the touchdown favored Cowboys continue with the new status quo and limit Prescott’s passing numbers.

    Elijah Mitchell Over 49.5 Rushing Yards

    Book: Bet MGM (-115)

    Date Available: October 8th

    From Hilow:

    “Regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Niners, we should expect this team to lean on the run for as long as possible. Their 54% situation-neutral rush rate in games Raheem Mostert or Elijah Mitchell played ranked third in the league.”

    “The team expects running back Elijah Mitchell back for Week 5 and he should immediately regain the lion’s share of running back opportunities after seeing 19 running back opportunities in each healthy week on 64% and 61% of the offensive snaps.”

    “The matchup on the ground yields an above-average 4.52 net-adjusted line yards metric and the Cardinals struggle to contain running backs in the second level, exactly what this Niners zone-blocking run scheme is designed to spring open for running backs.”

    “Elijah Mitchell is highly intriguing in a setup where we should expect a floor of 18-20 running back opportunities with room for more should the game environment break in San Francisco’s favor.”

    Reasy’s Reasoning:

    Keep an eye on Friday’s injury report and the status of Elijah Mitchell going into Sunday. Regardless of who is under center (looking more and more like the starting debut of Trey Lance) the San Francisco 49ers are likely to strongly favor the run in order to protect either Jimmy Garoppolo or their shiny new toy. As outlined by Hilow, Lance did not look ready to drop back and throw at the NFL level, leading to the coaching staff being likely to lean on their strengths even more so if Garoppolo’s calf sends him to the bench. With the Arizona Cardinals playing fast while historically giving their opponents opportunities to increase their number of plays, we see a strong path for Hilow’s 18-20 touch floor projection for Mitchell. The 49ers are averaging the eighth highest combined snaps per game (128) so far in 2021, while SF/ARI games combined for 135+ total plays in both of their 2020 contests. Mitchell’s assumed workload combined with the Cardinals defense allowing the league’s highest yards per carry (5.21) provides a likely path to Mitchell producing a strong rushing game as long as the 49ers are able to keep the game relatively close. 

    Damien Harris Over 14.5 Rush Attempts 

    Book: Bet MGM (-125)

    Date Available: October 6th

    From Papy324:

    “Facing a pathetic Texans defense that is void of talent at all levels and has failed to hold an opponent under 21 points this season, expect the Patriots to lean on their run game after skewing pass heavy last week.”

    “With no clear “path of least resistance” against a Texans defense that is nothing but “least resistance,” expect the Patriots to lean on their O-line and ground attack while allowing the Texans offense to struggle.”

    “Harris has a chance to get 20 plus carries with a phenomenal matchup in a game that is expected to have excellent game flow for his team.”

    “I think Belichick wants to win this game bad enough that he’ll lean on his best RB, and that is Harris.”

    From JM:

    “Anything shy of 17 touches would be relatively surprising for Harris, and he has a 25-touch game already on his ledger this year.”

    Reasy’s Reasoning:

    The only real risk in this one is that Damien Harris has fumbled away his chance to be the lead back, but it isn’t like the rest of the backfield has done anything to write home about. As laid out in The Edge, the 91 pass attempts from Mac Jones in the last two weeks can be chalked up to game flow and smart coaching, attacking the weak spot of a given defense. It is probably not the norm for a Patriots team that would rather run the ball and win with defense- especially against the likes of Houston Texans “starter” Davis Mills. With the Texans ranked 30th in DVOA and 28th in yards allowed per carry, this matchup and game flow favor the ground and pound style of Harris in a contest the Patriots are favored by more than a full touchdown. With the Houston Texans allowing the fifth most plays per game against, Harris should have the usage and production to enjoy his strongest game of the season.

    ActionLabs Props Tool

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