Angles hits inboxes on Thursday mornings throughout the regular season; you can also find Angles in The Scroll on Thursday afternoons.

OWS Fam!!!

As we sit here already underway in Week 17, with only two weeks left in the regular season, in the midst of a 12-day stretch with nine games of NFL football (Dec. 19th-30th), I wanted to share one thought: You gotta love this! 

Maybe it’s a product of the holiday season and spending time with family, watching my kids grow, etc., but I’ve had such a sense of gratitude toward DFS lately. I think the real reason overall is that if you’re reading this / subscribing to OWS / participating in the DFS community / playing DFS with your money…then you’ve already won. Being in a position to play DFS, to “live a little” as the kids say, where we can use our brains, wits, and personalities to build rosters that win is the very definition of being blessed. The search for profit is a major factor in why we do this, but the journey week in and week out is why we keep coming back. You’ve probably heard this but I’m fairly certain this is where the phrase “the journey is the destination” comes from.

With a short two weeks ahead of us, it feels to me like this is the best time to remind us all to enjoy the journey. The NFL is revving its engine for the next month and a half to bring us the best football games we’ve seen all year. We’re already in a stretch where we are allowed to watch the sport nine out of 12 days and nights. Showing up, rebooting the systems each day, and applying the practices of what has been preached in this incredible community over the course of the season is the literal peak of what we’ve all put time and effort into this season.

Now into Week 17, I also have a secret to share: this is my favorite part of the regular season. Games are easier to analyze; we don’t have to pay much attention to some games, while others skyrocket in the rankings; we have tanking teams and winning teams putting in the same percentage of effort, but on opposite ends of the spectrums. We can start to look at season-long incentives and how they affect player usage, we can do some scenario-planning when it comes to playoff seeding, and we get to pick on (and/or ride) some coaches, quarterbacks, and defenses for possibly the penultimate time (remember rookie Josh Allen, Jameis’ glorious finish to a 30/30 season, Joe Flacco’s Cleveland run? I could go on).

This is a really fun and simple week to get into. When everything seems simple and straightforward, those slates are the best because it leads to even more clustered groupthink which we can avoid and find the situations to capitalize on as the season wraps up.

Week 17 :: Angles

Eight games on DK, nine on FD. The shortest main slates of the season. For this reason I won’t leave any games untouched, but as always, we’ll take a slightly different approach here. It’s easy to go game-by-game, and so you’ll see that in places this week. We’ll take it one step further here and look at situations at face value and the immediate tributaries that could open up.

The Bills (vs. Jets) and the Buccaneers (vs. Panthers) are the two high-total teams this week, both looking at implied expected points above 28. Buffalo collectively flopped (outside of the low-touch production of James Cook) last week against New England. The cold weather could have had something to do with that performance, but a win is a win, and this week it looks like another nasty weather day brewing in Buffalo against New York. With Kansas City logging two victories in five days, and a two-game cushion on the two-seed, there’s not much the Bills have to play for here. That being said, that’s how the consensus will look at this game. Add in the recency bias of last week’s dud from Allen against the Patriots and an underowned Buffalo team is enticing.

Tampa Bay struggled with Carolina a few weeks ago, lucking into an overtime win on the road, and after coming up short against Dallas last week are now suddenly behind the Falcons in the NFC South (same record; lose on tiebreakers). Carolina has been feisty, and clearly can slow the game down with an effective running game. However, no matter how you match these teams up, Tampa has the advantage. It’s likely both of these teams score 20+ points, but how will that happen? 

To reiterate: Buffalo (28) and Tampa Bay (28.5) have the highest implied team totals on the slate. Buffalo doesn’t have much to play for, Tampa has everything to play for. But the median projections for both offenses is roughly the same. Remember this when you are looking at projected ownership percentages this weekend. The slate starts here.

We have rain looking likely in many other games (as of late Thursday forecasts). Among them: Buffalo, Tampa Bay, New York (Giants), Jacksonville, Philadelphia, and Cleveland. That’s six of eight games. Said another way, all the outdoor games could be ugly. The only indoor games are in New Orleans with the Saints and Raiders, and the likely game of the week in Minnesota with the Packers traveling in.

Minnesota and Green Bay is a pick’em at the moment, and this will look to be the game of the week. It’s also the actual only game on DK (excludes SNF) with two teams who will be playing for playoff positioning. When they met earlier in the season, of course, the Vikings took an early 28-0 lead, and the game ended with a shootout score of 31-29 as Jordan Love thrived in catchup mode. I’m sure this game is being watched by both teams plenty on tape this week, so expecting a duplicate outcome seems wrong despite these teams seeming to match up in a similar way nearly two months later. My best advice here is to choose your game script and stick to it, and despite the thin margins on a spread, all four true outcomes are in play: Packers blowout or close win, Vikings blowout or close win. We can’t say the same about the range of outcomes in the other games on this slate, so that could be important.

Tennessee and Jacksonville played to a 10-6 game in Week 14, but both teams have proven more recently that the bad offenses > bad defenses factor can rear its head from time to time. Neither of these teams is expected to do this, but it could be a trendy play to lean toward the over here. Just a reminder that it is still likely to be Mac Jones vs. Mason Rudolph.

The Colts (24) will be another offense many will be attracted to with the performances of both Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson last week. In hindsight, both of them look obvious, but we’ve seen plenty of games where they’ve put up duds. The good news for them, of course, is the matchup with the Giants defense — a defense that is more likely to show up in a similar manner to the Titans (who the Colts just dominated) than the Broncos or Lions (who Richardson struggled mightily with).

The Eagles and Cowboys would have been more exciting if we were expecting Jalen Hurts this week, but it’s unlikely he plays. The Cowboys have a lowly 15.75 implied point total, now also missing CeeDee Lamb, and if it’s Kenny Pickett on the other side, can we expect a Saquon Barkley vs. Rico Dowdle game? Advantage: Philadelphia || The Dolphins looked competent at home in Miami last week but now go to cold weather in Cleveland (this is a thing). Tua in the cold and rain seems bad. However, the Browns are also very bad and have nothing to play for. It’s not a likely outcome, but the Dolphins don’t throw the ball downfield anyway, so a few broken tackles and then what? || The aforementioned Saints (and Spencer Rattler?) are hosting the Raiders indoors, after getting shut out in Green Bay on Monday night. Rattler is now 0-4 as a starter in the NFL, but at least they will host Aidan O’Connell, who is just 6-9 in his career. Coming off a win vs. Jacksonville helps (even if it hurts their draft picks), and with the way New Orleans looked in primetime, I’d expect the Raiders to get some buzz here. Is it possible this game plays the way Indianapolis and Tennessee did last week? Yes. But is it likely? No.

Fewer games on a slate can lead to overanalyzing. Overthinking leads us all down the wrong paths. Keep the games at face value, and don’t go to great depths to find your favorite spots. It’s the home stretch here, and Sunday’s (short) main slate will be a wet and fun one.

I really can’t wait to see your lineups at the top of contests on Sunday!

~Larejo

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider

Finding An Edge

The whole idea behind this piece of content is that it is unique. Specific content and strategies for the “non-main slate” contests are very rare in the DFS industry, and most players who enter them are casual players or doing so on a whim after their main slate entries have had things go wrong and they want something to root for or to chase their losses during the late games. Edges are getting harder and harder to find in DFS as information gets better, projections get sharper, and the field gets more experienced. These smaller slates present a clear opportunity for an advantage for those that focus on them, as most players will just take their thoughts from the main slate and approach these lineups the same way – without considering how much having seven to nine fewer games (depending on the week) changes the strategy. The biggest win of my career came on an “Afternoon Only” slate in January of 2021 and I hope to share some of my insights on the format to help you attack this niche corner of NFL DFS.

Ownership Strategy

• Ownership will be higher for pretty much every player on “short slates” just because there are fewer players to choose from. This will be especially true for “chalky” players from the main slate.
• This means getting these players right is even more vital than on a main slate. There are fewer alternatives to choose from, so if they have a big game and you aren’t on them, it is much harder to find other ways to make up those points.
• This also means it is easier for lower owned players to pay off, as there are fewer players at their position that they need to have “fail” for them to be worth the risk.
• Correlation is even more important than on the main slate because the useful fantasy games that pay off for the slate are likely to be clumped up from the same games. I always make lineups with a game stack (QB + at least one pass catcher + at least one opponent) and then one or two “mini-correlations” from other games.

Week 17 Overview

Just a two game slate this week, so to be honest with you all, I’m not going to be playing a lot on this week’s Afternoon Only slate. There are various reasons for this. First, this week’s games are already SO split up with a two game Christmas slate, a three game Saturday slate, and our usual Thursday, Sunday, and Monday night games so the main slate is already condensed. Second, the NFL broke the remaining games up in a 6-2 split with only two games in the late window. Third, and perhaps most importantly, that late window of two games features two spots that appear to be very predictable and a ton of lineups will be built in VERY similar ways. The Dolphins // Browns game has two backup QBs set to face off in questionable weather, while the Packers // Vikings game features two of the stronger offenses in the league facing each other in a dome. The majority of rosters will use a defense from the MIA/CLE game, a QB from the GB/MIN game, and one or maybe two offensive players at most from the MIA/CLE game. The most popular players from that MIA/CLE game will be RBs Jerome Ford and De’Von Achane. The problem here is that with the size of the tournaments offered and such a clear way that is optimal to build, it is going to be really, really hard to be unique without being “dumb.” I’ll still dabble a bit, but the main slate is small enough that I won’t do my usual volume on this slate.

QB Strategy

Quarterback is always an important position but that importance goes to another level on these small slates. There are two main reasons for this. First, on average, quarterbacks obviously score the most points of any position and we can only start one of them. Second, as noted above, correlation is even more important as the slates get smaller and there are fewer scoring opportunities to go around. By choosing the right quarterback, you are also increasing the chances that you are right at two other positions. Again, the shorter slate condenses the scoring across all lineups, making each position more vital to separating and giving yourself a chance to win. This is why quarterback strategy has its own section:

Strategy for Underdog’s “The Gauntlet” & “The Mitten”

(Updated 1/6/2025)

Overview 

• Six player snake draft comprised of 10 rounds in a Best Ball tournament format.
• Teams are made up of 10 total players with a starting lineup of 5 players – 1 QB, 2 WR/TE, 1 RB, and 1 Flex.
• (4) Round structure with the top two teams advancing out of a group of (6) in the first round, followed by two independent rounds with only one team advancing out of each from a group of (10). The finals are comprised of 300 teams in the Super Bowl with $200K up top.
• Getting out of the first round is crucial, but difficult if drafting three or more players from a bye team (Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions).
• Like a Milly Maker on DK, the payout structure is extremely top heavy. 

The final two bullets bring up an interesting dilemma as the two bye teams are the most likely to make the conference final and Super Bowl but drafting several of those players also hamper your chances of getting out of the first round. 

To win, you will likely need (at least) five players to reach the Super Bowl. This incentivizes stacking your lineups to consolidate around a few teams you are hoping can make deep playoff runs, however, an aggressive stacking strategy has its trade-offs. If you prioritize stacking elite contenders, such as the Chiefs or Lions, this will likely have you drafting some poorly projected depth players to round out your team. Someone in your first pod/round will likely have drafted studs on wild card teams and while they will have an uphill battle to win the whole tournament, these teams will have a leg up on getting out of the first round.

If you consider stacking both bye teams, you must cap that at a total of 5 players and are fighting an uphill battle to advance. The tournament is very top heavy, and the two one seeds are the most likely to advance, so we will discuss below some of the strategies to best balance this predicament and try to thread a very thin needle to advance a team to the final 300 teams.

Roster Composition

Majesstik is one of the most respected Slate Breakdown artists in DFS

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Hilow is a game theory expert (courses at Harvard, Yale, Stanford, and Northwestern) and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max

MACRO SLATE VIEW::

The field appears to be struggling with the lack of certainty on this slate. There are two things that allow me to come to that conclusion. First off, ownership expectations are highly concentrated on the players that project well on a point-per-dollar basis, but not necessarily on players, teams, games, or situations that could break the slate. Secondly, I expect game environment bets and utilization to be down due to recent field trends this season. That immediately presents ways to generate expected value. Taking it one step further, there are so many teams that are either playing with a backup quarterback or have nothing to play for at this point in the season, making weeding through those situations of the utmost importance as it pertains to attacking this specific slate. The field is going to struggle, let’s pop those OWS avatars at the top of the leaderboard this week!

RESTRICTIVE CHALK VS EXPANSIVE CHALK::

Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.

BUCKY IRVING

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Let’s call a spade a spade here. Bucky Irving has an elite matchup on the ground, and has a path to elite volume, but shares the backfield with Rachaad White. White has fumbled in consecutive games and could have fumbled the Tampa season away at the end of the game last week. This is a player with a wide range of outcomes, having a clear path to elite volume and production but also having a path to modest volume if White remains more involved. It’s a little scary to target him at the highest ownership on the slate, making me most interested in Irving in game environment bets.

AARON JONES

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. I don’t understand this one, to be honest. Jones has not hit a 4x salary multiplier since Week 3, has gone over 100 yards just twice all season, and has not scored multiple times at all this year. He has also fumbled five times this season and could cede meaningful snaps to Cam Akers.

DONTAYVION WICKS

EXPANSIVE CHALK. It’s easy to get into the mind loop of thinking that an absence of one of the primary pass-catchers on an offense automatically means the remaining players will see higher concentration. Now go look at the game logs from the Packers this season. Yeah, Dontayvion Wicks without either Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs did not automatically mean he was going to see more volume, or that Jayden Reed was going to see more volume, or that Tucker Kraft was going to see more volume, or that Romeo Doubs was going to see more volume, and so and for all of eternity. The truth of the matter is Wicks likely needs the game environment to go off to see true slate-breaking ceiling, even at his depressed salary. For that reason, I want Wicks in game environment bets, and I want to full-fade him on other rosters.

BRIAN THOMAS JR.

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. BTJ has seen double-digit targets in each game since the team’s Week 12 bye, and 12 or more in the previous three games. He has returned 31.2 DK points or more in two straight while going over 100 yards in each game, scoring three times in that streak. On a slate lacking certainty,  he appears to be one of the sharper ways to allocate salary.

SAQUON BARKLEY

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. I’m more torn on Saquon than JM this week. On one hand, he’s chasing history and should be an even larger focus of the offense with Jalen Hurts out. On the other hand, the Eagles have almost nothing left to play for, and I would guess they are prioritizing being healthy for the playoffs over playoff seeding after the disaster last year. This is all speculation, making his range of outcomes wider than it normally has been this season, meaning I would have more interest at lower ownership. We’ve been targeting Saquon all season at sub-5% ownership, making it a little more difficult to stomach at 20-25% ownership. If we removed the uncertainty, he would be one of the top raw plays on the slate, but the uncertainty is enough for me to pass a word of caution at high ownership.

DE’VON ACHANE

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Achane is averaging 5.1 receptions per game this season, which is truly remarkable. He has seen seven or more targets in each of the previous four games while catching six or more per game in that span. His floor is amongst the top at the position while he has hit 29.5 DK points in three of 15 games this season, good for a 20% hit rate. That’s good, not great, production. He’s a sharp way to allocate salary on a rather thin slate.

T.J. HOCKENSON

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Hockenson is my preferred target on the Vikings. The Green Bay defense took a while to install under new defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, but they are now playing their best football of the season. That said, they operate as a true tight end funnel. Hockenson hasn’t yet seen truly elite volume after returning from injured reserve, making him most valuable in game environment bets.

JUSTIN JEFFERSON

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The absence of Jaire Alexander helps a little, but this is far from a sparkling matchup against a Packers defense playing their best football of the season. It’s Justin Jefferson, so we know he can still hit in any matchup, but I would confine Jefferson to game environment bets this weekend.

SAM DARNOLD

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. The Packers have allowed the second fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, 209.7 pass yards per game, and just 19.1 points per game. This defense is far different than the first time these two teams met. That said, this game could still turn into something you had to have this week, meaning I prefer Darnold (and the rest of the Vikings) in game environment bets.

CALVIN RIDLEY

NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Ridley has hit a 4x salary multiplier three times in 15 games, good for a 20% hit rate. That isn’t the best but it’s also not the worst. I prefer Ridley in game environment bets.

MIKE EVANS

RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Evans needs 182 yards over his final two games and the Buccaneers have everything to play for these last two weeks. He gets a Panthers defense playing the third most single-high, an alignment he absolutely dominates. Yes, please.

JAKE FERGUSON

EXPANSIVE CHALK. I get it, Ferguson is coming off a nine-target game and is now playing without CeeDee Lamb on the field. But man, the matchup is brutal, and we know the Cowboys would prefer to not ask Cooper Rush to throw the football more than 28-32 times. That’s a questionable setup at borderline extreme ownership.

RAIDERS D/ST

EXPANSIVE CHALK. Man, I hate being on board with cheap-chalk defenses in DFS. The problem is the Raiders are in such a good spot against a Saints team that has proven to be largely incapable of moving the football in its current state. I’m weirdly okay with it.

CHALK BUILD::

JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat, King of the Hill/Beach, Spy, etc.) who focuses on the DraftKings Main Slate

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OWS Fam ::

This is not a complete list of all the good plays on the slate

This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing

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The Grid ::

Bottom-Up Build

:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”)

Blue Chips

:: my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; these players have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure

Build-Arounds

:: games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters

Building Blocks

:: unique player pairings that can be used as foundational building blocks for tournament rosters

Bonuses

:: players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective

Beta

:: a new category for 2024! — these are players who are not going to be “featured” on my tighter builds (i.e., one could show up on a tighter build, but they are not being prioritized as such), but who I will be mixing and matching across some portion of my MME builds

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Sunday Morning Update

Bottom-Up Build

Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (on the One Week Season podcast feed).

Bottom-Up Build
DK Salary Remaining :: $6.1K

Jordan Love
Bucky Irving
Alexander Mattison
Davante Adams
Kavonte Turpin
Dontayvion Wicks
Tucker Kraft
T.J. Hockenson
Raiders

Join The Bottom-Up Build Contest On DraftKings!

Buy-In:

Free

Rules:

Build with a salary cap of $44k or below!

Prizes:

1st Place = 150 Edge Points + Rare Blue Name Tag in Discord
2nd Place = 75 Edge Points
3rd Place = 40 Edge Points

*1 Edge Point = $1 in DFS courses on OWS

<< Join Here >>

*must use an OWS avatar (found on your profile page) to be eligible to win

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Blue Chips

Saquon Barkley

Based on matchup, usage, and performance over the last couple years, it’s fair to peg Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, De’Von Achane, James Cook, etc., with “percentage chances of scoring 27+ DK points” of 15% to 25% this week. Meanwhile, Saquon has hit for 27+ (29+, actually) in seven of 15 games this season; and against an up-and-down run defense, with the game plan sure to run through him, it’s fair to say he would hit in this spot a good 40% of the time. Is 40% the same as 100%? Of course not. You understand what we’re trying to do in DFS: position ourselves to benefit from the math of the slate. That doesn’t mean we’ll be right every time, but it does mean we’ll be right over time. On this small, RB-thin slate, playing Saquon would be right over time. He’s not a “must play” on this side of Sunday (i.e., he could post a had-to-have it score, of course; but he also has a disappointing outcome within his range of outcomes), but he is a sharp way to attack.

“Light Blue” Chips

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Build-Arounds

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Building Blocks

“Wet Fish”

Tua + Achane

Story:

“The cold never bothered me anyway”

Why It Works:

In Miami’s last nine games, Tua + Achane has kept you on at least a 153-point DK pace seven times.

In Miami’s last nine games, Tua + Achane has kept you on at least a 163-point DK pace six times.

In Miami’s last nine games, Tua + Achane has kept you on at least a 182-point DK pace three times.

Compare that floor/ceiling range to most individual options this week, and this pairing stands out in a huge way. Josh Jacobs and Justin Jefferson, for example, have each kept you on a 150-point pace in only 20% of their games this year (and that’s just covering one roster spot, instead of two). Until you dig into the numbers, it’s hard to appreciate just how rare it is to find a player who can be said to have kept you on a 180+-point pace in 33% of games, and Tua + Achane have done this over their last nine games while covering two spots on your roster. This is hugely valuable.

The best part? People won’t want to play Tua in a northern, outdoor, December game. But it’s not supposed to be that cold in Cleveland this week, and the expected rain shouldn’t have a huge impact on a team that focuses primarily on short-area throws. Furthermore, the Dolphins have tumbled all the way down to 28th in run offense DVOA, and have stuck with their passing attack even in blowouts recently (Tua threw the ball 36 and 40 times in easy wins over the Raiders and Patriots). We shouldn’t expect DTR to hold up his end of the bargain…and that may not matter for the Tua/Achane combo. On this ugly week, this ugly-seeming pairing is really, really interesting.

How It Works:

One thing we can’t reasonably expect from this pairing is a 225-point pace. This pairing has a great shot at keeping you on a 160-point pace or higher, with a better shot than most available options on the slate for 175+. On this small, thin slate, this gains more power than it would typically have, but you’ll still want to treat this as your “floor starting point” rather than treating this as the play that will win you a tourney. Build in additional upside from here, and be willing to take one or two risks away from this pairing. This pairing, of course, works best in small-field play; but given the unique shape of this week’s slate, it has potential to matter even in larger contests.

POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE:

The story plays out differently, and you don’t get first place — which is really all that matters.

“Raid”

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Bink Machine

A look at some of the rules I’ll be applying in the Bink Machine this week.

Loading…

I’ve poked around and poked around, but I’m not finding any unique opto rules this week. If I come across any unique little edges, I’ll pass them along in the Sunday Morning Update.

Bonuses

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If Building For Single-Entry // Three-Entry Max

This is my narrowest pool, which means it’s the pool likeliest to change a bit as I move deeper into builds. If it changes throughout Saturday night, I’ll add an update in this space.

If I were building for single-entry // three-entry Max, my tightened-up player pool would be:

QB ::

Sam Darnold || Jordan Love || Baker Mayfield || Bryce Young || Tua Tagovailoa

RB ::

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A Wrap ::

I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

-JM

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

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Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. I am changing up the format of my Player Grid this year to be more direct about the players I like at each position and keep myself from casting too wide of a net. We have plenty of strategy talk and full game write-ups on every game here at OWS, this year I’m going to use this article to give direct answers on who I think the best tournament plays are each week. Also, note that just because a player isn’t on here doesn’t mean they are a bad play, I’m just intentionally trying to limit the players I list to about 3 QBs, 5 to 7 RBs, 6 to 8 WRs, and 2 or 3 TEs and that means that some plays don’t make the cut – we can’t play everyone. Feel free to drop me feedback in Discord or on Twitter about the new format and if you like this better or last year’s. Enjoy!!

This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must. 

(Side note:: You’ll notice at the bottom of this article that Fanduel will have its own Player Grid this year)

Draftkings Player Grid

Quarterback ::

• Sam Darnold // Jordan Love – The slate’s premier game environment in a dome between two very good offenses.
• Mason Rudolph – The Jaguars have the worst pass defense in the league and Rudolph has clear top options to build rosters around. We have seen Jacksonville make many mediocre offenses look great this season and playing Rudolph with one or both of Ridley/Okonkwo leaves a ton of salary for you to attack the higher confidence spots on the slate.
• Baker Mayfield // Bryce Young – We saw this game produce GPP winning scores a few weeks ago and the Panthers offense has continued to improve since then. 
• Salary Savers: Joe Flacco, Mac Jones

Running Back :: 

• Bucky Irving – Elite matchup. Huge game/team total. Volume likely spiking. Reasonable salary.
• Tyjae Spears – Tony Pollard is not traveling for this game and Spears has been balling out recently. Great value and explosive skill set in a good matchup.
• Breece Hall – Buffalo gives up a ton of receptions to RBs and Hall is at a huge discount if his huge snap rate and touch share from last week continues.
• Aaron Jones – Dominating RB usage for an elite offense playing in the best game environment of the week.
• Saquon Barkley – Saquon is chasing history and the Eagles will lean on him without Hurts. Faces a Dallas defense ranked 29th in run defense DVOA.
• Jonathan Taylor – Smashed last week and could do it again this week against a downtrodden Giants defense. No Anthony Richardson to steal goal line touchdowns either.
• Jerome Ford – Should see 20+ touches at a modest salary and the Browns chances of leading this game increased with the news that Tua is unlikely to play.

Wide Receiver :: 

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Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play

Too Many Cooks?

Sure, there’s that dusty proverb about “spoiling the stew,” but with James and Brandin on this menu, I’m ignoring all that. Let’s heat up something that’s different from what everyone else is eating. 

I’d mention Dane Cook, but he still sucks. 

These are contrarian moves I’ll be mixing into my rosters to differentiate from the masses. Sometimes we’ll miss, but the ones that do hit will help us lap the field.

Secondary Core-Relations

We’re always hunting for those high-ceiling combinations to add to our existing game stacks. It’s better to aim at getting four things right instead of trying to hit a nine-way parlay. I’ll lean on a handful of core secondary stacks that will be finessed into lineups whenever feasible.

James Cook/Davante Adams

The Bills have kept Cook fresh all year, and that strategy is paying dividends with his recent explosive outings on relatively limited touches. The matchup here isn’t great and his floor remains low, but we’ve seen him flash ceiling performances a handful of times this season. If this game environment turns into a shootout, it’s likely that Cook and Adams are the primary catalysts.

Adams will draw decent popularity, but pairing him with Cook (at around 3% ownership) balances that out nicely. The Bills are also susceptible to pass-catching running backs, so I don’t hate the idea of mixing in Breece Hall here as well. Heck, you could even toss a 1%-owned Aaron Rodgers into the mix with all three for a truly unique stack — then fill out the rest of your roster however you’d like.

A.J. Brown/Brandin Cooks

Rumors that A.J. Brown keeps a Jalen Hurts voodoo doll on his nightstand haven’t been verified, but there might be some truth to them. He clearly loves getting targets, and once Kenny Pickett stepped in last week, Brown ended up with 18 looks (including penalties). That’s wild. Inexperienced quarterbacks often cling to their first read, so while another 18-target game is a stretch, Brown should remain plenty busy. Plus, at around 8% projected ownership, he’s a solid leverage play against the (finally!) popular Saquon Barkley.

On a slate this tight, it’s challenging to find truly low-owned players who see reliable volume, but I’ll take a shot on Brandin Cooks as the guy who benefits from the absence of CeeDee Lamb. Current projections are driving the crowd to Jake Ferguson at an uncomfortable rate. In large-field contests, I like building a few rosters that pivot off that potential chalk by targeting Cooks or the electric KaVontae Turpin.

Jerome Ford/Jonnu Smith

I became interested in Ford once Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s top passing target, David Njoku, was ruled out. Njoku saw 10 targets last week, and I doubt Jordan Akins will simply step in to handle that same workload. Plus, the Dolphins have funneled the third-most targets to running backs over the past four weeks.

Meanwhile, Jonnu Smith’s salary has reached its highest point of the year. Add in the fact that Jaylen Waddle is back, and it’s understandable why the field might hesitate to click Smith’s name. However, he remains a favorite red-zone target for Tua Tagovailoa, making him a nice leverage play off the chalkier De’Von Achane.

If Miami jumps out to an early lead and forces Cleveland to pass, I can see Ford pushing for eight targets. On the flip side, if the Browns happen to take a lead, we’re likely looking at a high-volume rushing attack for Ford, especially given the lack of quality depth behind him.

LOWER-OWNED TREASURES

Running Back

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• The top tier is comprised of two games. GB/MIN (48.5) and CAR/TB (48) both squeak into the upper echelon with totals above 48. They are the two best game environments, but neither one feels like a sure thing.
• The middle tier is smaller than it has been on recent slates with only one game. NYJ/BUF (46) has a moderate total with clear paths to over or under-performing the total.
• The bottom tier is robust and holds most of the slate with five games. IND/NYG (40.5), DAL/PHL (38), TEN/JAX (39.5), LV/NO (37.5), and MIA/CLE (37.5) all present less than exciting game environments. Remarkably, only Anthony Richardson (if he plays), and Tua Tagovailoa were their team’s starting QBs at the beginning of the season.

Pawn – TE Chig Okonkwo ($3,600)

Chig has finally been set free for the last two weeks! He has seen 11 & 10 targets from Mason Rudolph ($5,000) and turned those into 19 & 14 DK points. I say “set free” because Chig has long been one of the most athletic TEs in the league. He hasn’t produced as a fantasy player because he’s never been very involved in the passing game. I don’t know if his recent uptick in usage is the Titans coaching staff figuring out that he can be a weapon, or if Rudolph has a proclivity to check down to the TE. Either way, if Chig is going to see double digits targets (even 6-9 looks) he is a steal at his price. Add in that he gets the Jaguars pathetic (32^nd in DVOA) pass defense, and he starts to feel like an obvious play. I was expecting Chig to be the highest owned TE of the week, but early ownership projections have him as the fifth highest owned TE with a moderate 12% ownership. That’s more than fine on an eight-game slate and reinforces that I’m likely to use Chig on my Main Event build. He also makes for a nice mini correlation with Brian Thomas ($6,800) or a good stacking partner with Rudolph.

Knight – QB Joe Flacco ($4,900)

The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS

Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.

Week 17 Topics

1. It’s A Small World

2. The Gem That Unlocks The Slate

3. Stack SZN

4. Value Plays

5. “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?”

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1. It’s A Small World

The Question ::

Usually we like to start this article off by discussing what is “unique” about a particular slate. This week it is very clear that the answer to that is largely tied to the fact that this is the smallest “Main Slate” of the year. There are only eight games with sixteen teams on this slate, which will likely alter scoring expectations, ownership numbers, and the field’s overall approach to things. With all of that in mind, what stands out to you about this slate and what are your expectations for how this smaller slate is likeliest to play out in terms of overall scoring, GPP winning scores, and what positions you think are highest priority or likeliest to separate the winners from losers?

The Answers ::

JM >>

Indeed, the fact that this is an eight-game slate is immediately “unique.” But what does it all mean?

I think there’s a chance we see a high-scoring week — but in order for that to happen, we would probably need the Packers // Vikings game to play all the way to the upside, or we would need the Panthers // Bucs game to snowball into something special. Other avenues to a high-scoring DFS slate are big individual efforts from popular players (several of whom are capable of such efforts).

The likeliest way for this slate to play out, however, is for sub-200-point scores to ship DraftKings tourneys, and for small edges in scoring to ultimately make a big difference.

If no game shoots out in a major way, there will be opportunity for a game like Jets // Bills or even Titans // Jags to provide difference-making production.

I also see the running back position being more thin than normal on projectable scoring, with clear potential for none of the most popular running backs to go for more than 22-24 points (which would open the door for running backs with broader ranges of outcomes to post 28+ and become actual separators at a position where this isn’t usually an opportunity for significant edge).

If the running back position does suffer some performance loss this week, we have several wideouts capable of scoring 30+ (with 40+ within range for several players on this slate) — making the wide receiver position a spot where we might want to prioritize salary // upside-hunting.

Finally, this seems to me to be a slate where just simply trying to “play good players” will provide some level of edge. With so few games, and with so much that could go sideways, playing good players (ideally on good teams) can be one of the easiest ways to position yourself to scoop more points than your competition.

Xandamere >>

This is a real weird slate because there’s only one game that has both a high total and close spread, and overall just a lot of teams with really low totals (only 8 of 16 teams even have a 20 point team total). Backup quarterbacks abound, which will lower interest in a lot of pass catchers…I expect ownership is going to become quite concentrated. Fewer games means we likely have a lower-scoring overall slate, but what’s important to note is that the fewer games there are the lower the overall optimal lineup score (because there are fewer teams playing thus fewer opportunities for big outlier performances), but it also means that winning tournament lineups are closer to the optimal than normal (because fewer players to choose from, more likely to get things right when building). So I’m not sure that GPP winning scores really change necessarily…I’ve seen 3 or 4-game afternoon slates with GPPs won by the same or even higher scores as have taken down main slates. 

From a strategy angle, the smaller the slate, the more important I think it is to try and win each position. If you need to be closer to optimal to win, that means you can’t afford to lose out at a given position and try to make it up with lower-owned outlier high scores elsewhere. That makes Brock Bowers and, to a lesser extent, Jonnu Smith especially interesting to me as they’re the tight ends who’ve shown the ability to truly win their position with scores that nobody else can match. At quarterback one could say the same for Josh Allen, IF he’s pushed into Superman mode (read: if the Jets put up a fight). Wide receiver and running back are deep enough that there aren’t the same individual major decision points – lots of guys can have good (and clustered) scores at those positions.

Hilow >>

I almost get tired of saying this (and you guys and gals might be growing tired of hearing it), but man, I love this slate. Anything that is out of the “DFS norm” is room for bumps to expected value, and this slate is far from the “DFS norm.” It is likeliest we see scores in the 195-205 range ship majors this week with fewer opportunities for outlier production to exist. That said, just because something is less likely doesn’t necessarily mean that is how things will play out. For me, targeting game environments heavily on this slate will be one of the biggest boosts to EV we can make because there are fewer opportunities for another game to match the production if one truly blows up. Based on our discussions in previous weeks on The Slate podcast, I get the feeling the field will take the exact opposite approach by clinging too tightly to median projections. Oh, the places we’ll go, and oh, the expected value we’ll generate!

Mike >>

I think this slate has a wide range of outcomes as the smaller amount of games and the fact that so many of them have modest totals provides a clear blueprint for how it could be a boring Saturday. On the flip side, teams who are in contention are condensing their offenses and feeding their studs while many teams that are out of the playoffs are featuring younger players or critical pieces of the franchise out of necessity due to injury or as a means of using their remaining games to evaluate and develop. This provides us with a situation where some of these games with low projected totals could smash their expectations and also where we could see some outsized usage numbers that lead to huge individual performances. Since the slate is condensed with fewer teams/players, more elite individual scores will automatically inflate overall scoring. I think around 210-220 points will be required to win tournaments on Draftkings this week.

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2. The Gem That Unlocks The Slate

The Question ::

We have talked throughout the year about how rosters built heavily around a specific game can give us a clear path to the top on weeks where one game blows the others away. This week there are two games that have far higher totals than the rest (CAR/TB and GB/MIN) and could potentially separate in a big way. Two part question here, which of those games do you think is more likely to turn into a “shootout” and of the remaining six games is there one that you think has sneaky paths to putting up a big number?

The Answers ::

Thanks for hanging out with us in The Oracle this week

We’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend!

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Within the Scroll each week, we will share our early week bets and the thesis behind them. Our hopes are that this article will help the OWS Fam become better prop bettors as we teach you to fish.

Caution: Odds in the prop’s streets move fast, and it is likely these odds will have changed by the time you read this. With that in mind, we have left a “good to” mark to help you decide if the bet is for you.

(Feel free to DM Xandamere or JReasy on Discord with any feedback)

Justin Jefferson (MIN) OVER 6.5 Receptions

Justin Jefferson has gone over this mark in 5 straight games and 5 out of 7 times playing the Lions. He’s averaging 12 targets a game over the last 3 weeks and the Lions have faced the second-fewest rushing attempts over the previous 5 weeks. On average, the Lions have allowed north of 22 receptions a week over the last 5, and Jefferson has a 30% target share with a 76% catch rate during that time frame. I feel that this line is slightly below where it should be. 7.5 +100 to -110 is about right. Last week both Pearsall and Jennings went over this mark, and the week prior DJM and Keenan Allen did the same thing.

The bet is good to: -140

Jameson Williams (DET) OVER 56.5 Receiving Yards

Jameson’s receptions o3.5 is strong but juiced to -165. Williams has 5 receptions in 5 of the last 6 games and Williams is averaging 73 receiving yards over the last 5 with a 17.5% target share, which has risen each of the last three weeks. He has averaged 16 yards per reception over the previous 5 games and over 18 yards per reception on the season. WRs that have hit over this mark include vs. the Vikings include: Romeo Doubs, DK Metcalf, Mooney & London, and MHJ. That’s just over the last 5 weeks. The Vikings give up nearly 120 yards per game on average to outside wide receivers.

The bet is good to: -140

Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries

Frequently this season, and in years past, a byproduct of writing this article is putting together the “Willing to Lose” lineup of the week. Some of this is due to the structure of how I try to navigate giving out strategies, part is due to my playing style of being “non-MME,” and leaning closer to SE/3-5 max most weeks. I think the other part of penning this piece over the years is also because I’m still chasing the week where I can get almost everything right in one content post.

If you’re reading this spot every week, you likely know by now how to interpret my words. Don’t take everything and implement it into one roster (let me make that mistake because I’m obligated to!) but do sift through my thoughts and pick out the one that resonates the most with your thinking. If on a typical week, I try to give at least three strategies and/or player blocks/picks, it’s overwhelmingly been the case that I’m somewhat right on one of those three. If I can get two, great. And if there’s a week where I can put it all together and go 3-3 or 3-4, that’s going to be the one. This last point is why I’ve been building the WTL lineup each week this season alongside writing the article. That lineup lives in a lottery tournament every week, and if nothing else, gives me a sense of being real with anyone reading this, that I’m sticking to my words and playing what I wrote about. 

Zooming out for a second…having any sort of accuracy on lower-owned strategies is a win in my book. As with anything, you wouldn’t click on this article and expect I’d be nailing everything, just as you wouldn’t read this and assume the opposite…that I have no clue. Now that I hope I have your attention, Week 17 is going to be different. I’m going to walk through my exact thought process and build an eight-of-nine roster. Why? Because it’s Week 17. Why 2.0? Because if you aren’t tweaking your approach every single week, are you really trying? So, despite a roster build going against many of my own intuitions, I’m proceeding anyway. Here goes nothing…  

Where the (Wild) Points Are

Another cause and effect in my DFS play this season is the first look advantage I get in the Angles email. Since I’m not out there with a large lump sum in play on a given weekend, I have been burned too many times by placing my eggs in baskets that never had a chance. The Angles research has helped me isolate where and when to focus my attention, and for the majority of weeks, this is going to be with the teams and games where points will be scored. Implied totals aren’t everything but when you lose lineups because you stacked an offense projected to score less than 20 points, it hits differently than when you’re rostering Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson and they simply fall flat.

Bills: Allen and Jets WR

Prich has won over $300k the past 3 years and has found an edge in understanding the field biases and more importantly his own biases when building rosters.

Biases will be back in week 18

Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests

This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on Fanduel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on Fanduel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point, while on DK receptions are worth a full point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before (this year, FD added bonuses for yardage totals – more on this below), but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance and since they carry so much weight on Fanduel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.

Week 17

SOLO SHIP – JM & SQUIRREL PATROL

SEARCHING FOR CEILING – HILOW & RICH HRIBAR

DFS LABS DK – STATATL & CHEESEMAN