XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
For anyone up early on Sunday morning, you get a bit of a treat as the Vikings and Steelers are playing the first-ever NFL game in Dublin, Ireland. This game has a 40.5 total game and Minnesota is favored by 2.5. Croke Park, where the game is being played, is an open-air stadium but the weather should be nice. Beyond that, I have no real idea how the stadium might impact scoring.
MINNESOTA
We’ll start by looking at the Vikings, who look likely to be without J.J. McCarthy again and are still missing Aaron Jones, leaving the backfield in the hands of Jordan Mason. Last week, Mason handled 76% of the carries through the first three quarters before sitting in a blowout, taking 16 carries for 116 yards and 2 scores. He did not see a target, though Carson Wentz only attempted 20 passes. Mason should be in for a big workload in this one, and the Steelers defense is going to be missing at least one major piece with Alex Highsmith out, and they might also be missing more starters. Pittsburgh’s defense has also given up 32 points to the Jets and 31 to the Seahawks so far – it’s fair to say they haven’t looked as good as we’re used to seeing a Steelers defense be in the last few years. So far in the season, this has not looked like a negative matchup. Mason’s expensive but he’s the clear bell cow back on an offense that, at least last week, looked more capable with Wentz than McCarthy. Some combination of Zavier Scott and Cam Akers will back him up, with Scott being the favorite for more touches. RB2s are always viable in Showdown, and $2,400 is a cheap price for an RB2, so while it’s hard to say “yeah, this backup guy is such a smash play,” we can say Scott is a bit too cheap for his role and upside.
In the passing game, the Vikings will get back Jordan Addison from suspension, and since he wasn’t injured, he should be ready to step into a full role. Last week, Wentz only threw 20 passes, and 13 of them went to Justin Jefferson and tight end T.J. Hockenson. Listeners to the Saturday Inner Circle Slate show will remember I talked about Wentz having the second-highest tight end target rate of any quarterback in the NFL over the last seven seasons. Addison gives him another good weapon, but he’s never been a target hog; he’ll largely steal from Jalen Nailor, leaving what should be primarily a 3-target tree of Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson. Justin Jefferson is one of the best receivers in the NFL and is always a strong on-paper play whenever he’s on a Showdown slate. As with all top receivers, the issue isn’t about whether he is a good play, it’s just about whether he will find a ceiling in this particular game. The matchup isn’t a tough one as we’ve seen other WR1s smash the Steelers this year (to be fair, every team has smashed the Steelers). Addison is more of a lower volume, deeper threat boom/bust kind of profile – he’s a very talented receiver, you’re just probably going to need him to connect on a longer score in order to hit. His price at $7k is noteworthy as he’s usually been in the $8k range, so we get a bit of a discount since he hasn’t been active yet; and that’s enough to make me want to take an overweight position on him.
Hockenson is the other main pass catcher on this offense and he’s a guy I think is just way too cheap at $5,400 (he’s usually been in the $6k – $7k range), and Wentz’s tendency to target his tight ends at a huge rate boosts his target expectations. I’d be shocked if Hock saw fewer than 5 targets in this one, and he has a ceiling for many more. He’s my favorite overall Viking when price is considered. WR3 Jalen Nailor will be on the field a lot, and he’s seen 13 targets through three games so far, but Addison’s return likely impacts him the most of any Vikings pass catcher. His volume is likely to go away, leaving him more of a punt play than a real value option. Adam Thielen is also very likely to see his snaps impacted, as he was brought back to help fill in while Addison was out, but Thielen can still fill a slot role in 3-wide sets in which Minnesota wants to have Jefferson and Addison on the perimeter. Thielen should still see the field at least some of the time and will be in competition with Nailor for snaps. I wouldn’t play them together, and Nailor has more per-target upside than the 35-year-old Thielen at this point in his career. TE2 Josh Oliver plays enough snaps and is a solid enough pass catcher while on the field to also be thrown into the punt play pool, and Wentz’s tendency to target the tight end makes him a bit stronger than usual, as while he won’t be on the field a ton, he’s more likely to garner a target or two when he’s in.
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