Vikings (

22) at
Saints (

19.5)

Updated Oct 9, 2026 · 2:22 PM ET

HIBy HilowBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Hilow is a tournament champion and game-theory specialist focused on mid- and high-stakes single-entry and three-max play. In the NFL Edge he maps how each team will try to win and where the clearest DFS leverage sits.

Go deeper: The Theory of Roster Construction→

GAME OVERVIEW::

• The Vikings are 4-0. The Vikings have two games in which they were held without a touchdown. The Vikings rank 27th in EPA. The Vikings managed one offensive touchdown, total, against the Bears, Buccaneers, and Dolphins. Something is going to give eventually.
• WR Jordan Addison (hamstring) missed practice on Wednesday while WR Justin Jefferson (ankle) returned to a limited session after missing Week 4.
• TE Noah Fant (abdomen) returned to a limited session after missing Week 4 while RB Alvin Kamara (back) was a 'DNP.'
• The Saints have now trailed by an average of 7.4 points per game at the half in their 21 games under head coach Kellen Moore, which jumps to an average of 8.75 points per game through the four games to start 2026.

HOW MINNESOTA WILL TRY TO WIN::

Minnesota is a team still searching for their identity, which is an interesting conclusion to draw considering they are one of only three remaining undefeated teams. The offense continues to look completely lost, largely unable to demonstrate the down-to-down consistency required in a Kevin O'Connell system. Kyler Murray appears to be yet another poor schematic fit for an offense based on timing and rhythm, requiring anticipatory throws that either lead a receiver open or are delivered before the receiver's break. Furthermore, Murray has historically been inaccurate and late on the primary source of explosive plays in a KOC offense – the deep crosser. And yet, this team is 4-0. But is that in any way indicative of further success or is it simply a product of their schedule through four weeks? I would heavily argue in favor of the latter considering they have played a broken Packers team, the Bears in driving wind and rain, a broken Buccaneers team, and inarguably the least talented roster in the league in the Dolphins. Currently listed as two-point road favorites against the Saints, the Vikings are implied to have a 55 percent chance to head to their Week 6 bye a perfect 5-0. That said, they likely require a continuation of "outmaneuvering" opponents as we enter the second quarter of the regular season to continue stringing together wins, which points us straight to their defense. A long time staple amongst the most aggressive, dynamic, and skilled defensive play callers in the league, Brian Flores has the talent, scheme, and in-game feel to continue generating disruption and flipping games on their head, which is the clearest path toward victory for this iteration of the Vikings.

Jordan Mason underwent surgery on his thumb and has been on injured reserve since Week 2, meaning he will miss Week 5. In his absence during the most recent three games, Aaron Jones has handled an 86 percent backfield opportunity share, which would rank fourth in the league behind only Jahmyr Gibbs, James Cook, and Jonathan Taylor. He has seen 74 total opportunities in that three-game sample. And yet, he hasn't scored more than 16.8 DK points. And those 16.8 DK points required 28 (!!!) opportunities against the Dolphins in Week 4. The expected workload gives him a rock-solid floor, but poor efficiency is accompanied by a shaky ceiling, particularly considering an elevated $6,500 price tag. Exacerbating those shortcomings are low touchdown equity for an offense still working to find their groove and an offensive line blocking to a 19th-ranked ARBY, per statrankings.com. The good news is that the Saints have allowed the second highest yards per carry mark (5.30), sixth highest defensive ARBY, and most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (35.3 DK points per game – a five-rushing-touchdown game against the Falcons will do that).

Regarding Jordan Addison's hamstring injury, O'Connell said Wednesday, "Consider it minor, if it's anything at all," adding that they expect him to practice in a limited capacity Thursday. It sounds as if the team will have its top two wide receivers on the field together against the Saints, which effectively leaves us with a split bearing little value considering Kyler Murray, Jefferson, and Addison have played all of 18 snaps together this season. Murray left after 11 snaps in Week 1 and then missed Week 2 while Jefferson left after seven snaps in Week 3 and then missed Week 4. The truth of the matter is we've hardly seen anything regarding how this offense would like to operate in 2026. What we know is that Jefferson is supremely talented and in a route on nearly every dropback, when healthy, that Addison is a valuable deep threat that can take the lid off opposing defenses, tight end T.J. Hockenson is largely confined to short-area work in his age-29 season, Jauan Jennings has seen four targets in three healthy games, and Tai Felton is on hand to soak up situational/package snaps. The Saints have deployed single-high alignments at the second highest rate in the league and have allowed the most fantasy points per route defended from that alignment. Digging a bit further, their defense has functioned with the highest average cushion, per statrankings.com, meaning the highest average distance between the defender and the pass catcher at the snap. If there were ever a matchup through which Jefferson were set up to absolutely eat, it would be against a soft-Cover-3-heavy defense that gives him room to operate. That is what he has this week. Since 2024, Jefferson ranks third in first-read target rate against Cover-3 (41.03 percent), sixth in TPRR (30.71 percent), 15th in YPRR (2.89), and 24th in FP/RR in that split.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

Added Oct 8, 2026 · 10:52 AM ET