Published Oct 9, 2026 · 3:12 AM ET
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IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::
GAME SETUP ::
- Sean Payton resumes play-calling duties from OC Davis Webb starting this week.
- Chargers likely without Ladd McConkey and both starting tackles Alt and Slater.
DENVER PATH ::
- Jaylen Waddle and RJ Harvey are the primary volume candidates under Payton’s play-calling.
- Bo Nix continues to struggle with decisiveness, limiting the ceiling of Denver’s passing game.
LOS ANGELES PATH ::
- Chargers backfield is a three-way split among Hampton, Mitchell, and Vidal for touches.
- Oronde Gadsden II and Tre Harris are the likeliest pass-catching options with McConkey sidelined.
LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::
- Defensive battle is the most probable outcome, with both teams playing conservatively.
- Red zone struggles on both sides suggest successful drives are likely to stall at field goals.
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GAME OVERVIEW ::
- Denver is battling injuries on both sides of the ball and has a tough matchup with the Seahawks on Thursday night next week.
- Head coach Sean Payton will take over play calling duties from offensive coordinator Davis Webb starting this week.
- The Chargers are likely to be without star wide receiver Ladd McConkey due to a foot injury, while also dealing with some major losses on the offensive line.
- The backfield for the Chargers has devolved into a three-headed monster with Omarion Hampton, Keaton Mitchell, and Kimani Vidal all playing roughly a third of the snaps in Week 4.
HOW DENVER WILL TRY TO WIN::
Denver’s offense has been underwhelming this season and that has prompted a change at the top, with head coach Sean Payton reassuming play calling duties from offensive coordinator Davis Webb. This offseason the Broncos appeared to be set to lose Webb to other opportunities, including head coaching jobs, before they convinced him to return and let him take over the offense. The results have been poor thus far and Payton is no longer waiting around, deciding to take things into his own hands. This presents a small change in predictability for Denver’s offense as a new variable is introduced.
While Webb’s play calling hasn’t been great, he is somewhat being scapegoated for the poor play of third year QB Bo Nix. Watching the games you can see a lot of times where receivers are open and the scheme is doing what is intended, but Nix doesn’t pull the trigger. He appears to be constantly second guessing himself and lacking the confidence and conviction needed to play quarterback in the NFL at a high level. Denver runs a relatively balanced offense, with J.K. Dobbins operating as the primary early down back who handles almost all of the traditional carries. The Chargers defense is actually playing fairly well, especially considering the poor spots their offense keeps putting them in. Denver’s lack of explosiveness is likely to be the first thing Payton tries to fix – doing so might be another thing unless Nix will adjust.
The Broncos passing attack will be without developing second year WR Pat Bryant, who sustained an ankle injury last week. Jaylen Waddle has played well when given the chance, but the reluctance of Nix to pull the trigger has limited his upside. The absence of Bryant should result in Troy Franklin playing an increased role, while veteran Courtland Sutton has been non-existent the first month of the season. Running back RJ Harvey was peppered with targets last week as the checkdown king went to work. The Chargers are an average unit in basically everything – not elite, but definitely not a doormat. Their tendencies are also middle of the pack in terms of pressure rate, blitz rate, and man vs. zone coverage tendencies. They are, however, 28th in the NFL in missed tackle rate which has been their biggest issue thus far. Expect the Broncos to feature Waddle and the running backs, with others mixed in sporadically. Denver is no stranger to defensive battles and the Chargers offense hasn’t shown much so far this season, but the Broncos defensive injuries create a situation where they could have to take a more aggressive approach than usual.
The Defensive Grind
Mike Johnson is breaking down how Denver’s and LA’s red zone struggles, missing corners, and backfield shifts reshape this matchup. Sign up free to finish the analysis.
DFS+ Interpretations::
Added Oct 9, 2026 · 3:12 AM ET
Know The Stay-Aways
Mike Johnson is steering clear of several popular stacks this week, but his reasoning around Herbert, Bo Nix, and the Broncos backfield reveals where the real leverage sits.
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