Raiders (

21) at
Patriots (

24.5)

Updated Oct 9, 2026 · 2:33 PM ET

HIBy HilowBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Hilow is a tournament champion and game-theory specialist focused on mid- and high-stakes single-entry and three-max play. In the NFL Edge he maps how each team will try to win and where the clearest DFS leverage sits.

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GAME OVERVIEW::

• CBs Carlton Davis III (neck) and Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) did not practice Wednesday for the Patriots. WR Mack Hollins (calf) was unable to finish Week 4 and also did not practice Wednesday. RB Rhamondre Stevenson (knee) was limited.
• WR Jalen Nailor (concussion) did not practice Wednesday for the Raiders.
• Both teams are near the middle of the pack in explosive play rate and explosive play rate allowed. Both teams should largely be forced to march the field and string together drives to achieve offensive success.
• Keep an eye on the expected status of Stevenson as an absence would leave the bulk of the backfield to Henderson in a run-funnel matchup.
• Both offensive lines could be an issue in this one – these are the 31st and 30th-ranked run-blocking offensive lines through four weeks.

HOW LAS VEGAS WILL TRY TO WIN::

The chess match between Klint Kubiak and Zak Kuhr is going to be really fun from a fan’s perspective. Kubiak’s West Coast, Shanahan-inspired offense aims to generate space and explosive plays, leveraging heavy rates of play action and pre-snap motion to help diagnose coverages and expose places to create space for his primary skill position cadre. Carlton Davis III missed Week 2 and Christian Gonzalez missed Week 4. In those two games, the Patriots continued to utilize elevated rates of man coverage (42.0 percent, versus a season average of 36.4 percent) with elevated blitz rates (seventh-ranked 39.3 percent). I’m not sure what we see if both Davis and Gonzalez miss Week 5, which appears more and more likely with each passing day. Furthermore, part of what carried the Patriots to the Super Bowl a season ago was the variability in the middle of the field on that side of the ball, with athletic linebackers and safeties able to roll coverages and alignments to disguise the look. They used that to greatly influence an opposing team’s top option, but they needed all pieces working together fluidly to do so. In this spot, that is most likely to be rolled coverage and varied alignments designed to limit Brock Bowers, forcing the secondary options from the Raiders to beat them. Kubiak knows this as well, with the biggest unknown being the status of the Patriots’ top two corners – which brings us back to the chess match we’re likely to see on this side of the ball. This is going to be a game of trying to outmaneuver the opponent, and these are two of the top young minds in the league in that setup.

Ashton Jeanty ranked ninth in opportunity share (76.1 percent), sixth in rush attempts (78), and seventh in total yards (429) but has struggled to a modest 3.4 yards per carry through four weeks. The Raiders have blocked to the third lowest ARBY (one spot above the Patriots) while the Patriots have yielded the fourth highest defensive ARBY and 4.48 yards per carry to opposing backfields, setting up a relative weakness-on-weakness matchup on the ground for Jeanty and the Raiders. Mike Washington continues to operate as the clear change of pace option and has seen his role grow slightly with each passing week, which makes sense considering he has three explosive runs on just 24 carries to the five explosive runs on 78 carries of Jeanty. He remains unlikely to completely eat into Jeanty’s workload, but his presence at least has kept Jeanty from earning a true workhorse role in recent games (season-low 62.1 percent opportunity share in Week 4).

Tight end Brock Bowers is a matchup nightmare anywhere on the field, and Kubiak is using him as such. Bowers has aligned wide at a ridiculous-for-a-tight-end 42.2 percent rate, in the slot at a 41.1 percent rate, and inline at a lowly 9.2 percent rate, effectively leaving Michael Mayer as the true tight end (67.1 percent inline rate). In the two full games in which Bowers was healthy this year, the route participation rates went as follows: Bowers – 91.0 percent, Mayer – 76.4 percent, Tre Tucker – 75.3 percent, Jeanty – 59.6 percent, and Cody White – 40.4 percent (Jalen Nailor left after only 19 snaps in Week 4 but had been around 60 percent the previous three games). Nailor is looking questionable and Jack Bech is on injured reserve, placing additional emphasis on the top three options through the air, which are Bowers, Mayer, and Tucker. Considering the matchup against a Patriots team highly likely to roll additional emphasis in Bowers’ direction, regardless of where he lines up on the field, there could be room for additional volume to flow in Mayer’s and Tucker’s direction. Neither are overly stimulating from a projections standpoint, but both carry legitimate cost-considered ceilings, particularly if both Davis and Gonzalez miss. I expect the general structure of the offense to continue showing league-leading 12-personnel rates, with the understanding that Bowers really isn’t playing a tight end’s role.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

Added Oct 8, 2026 · 2:38 PM ET