Updated Oct 2, 2026 · 9:43 AM ET
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IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::
GAME SETUP ::
- Ravens offensive line is banged up; Lamar Jackson missed Wednesday practice.
- Titans lost two guards in Week 3; Tennessee averaging fewest plays per game.
TENNESSEE PATH ::
- Pollard-Spears split limits ceiling against a neutral Ravens run defense.
- Carnell Tate leads in target share but draws Humphrey and Wiggins in a tough matchup.
BALTIMORE PATH ::
- Derrick Henry leads the league in carries, touchdowns, and inside-five attempts against Tennessee’s 24th-ranked defensive ARBY.
- Zay Flowers is the most efficient receiver in football and operates in a pass offense with no other reliable volume options.
LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::
- Ravens control throughout, leaning on Henry against his former team in a sluggish-paced blowout script.
- Lamar’s status is worth monitoring, though the run-heavy game plan likely holds regardless.
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GAME OVERVIEW::
- This will be the first time Derrick Henry has faced the Titans in his career. Henry was drafted by Tennessee and played for them for eight seasons.
- The Baltimore offensive line is in rough shape.
- QB Lamar Jackson was surprisingly absent from practice Wednesday – something to monitor this week.
- WR Zay Flowers was reportedly present at practice Wednesday, although we don’t yet know his level of participation with me writing this game up before a full practice report drops.
- The Titans have their own offensive line injury concerns after two guards departed their Week 3 loss.
- At least the Titans have relative health on their side after emerging from their Week 3 loss without any relevant injuries. The caveat of that statement is that they have yet to release a practice report, as of this writing.
HOW TENNESSEE WILL TRY TO WIN::
The Titans have run an uptempo offense that ranks second in situation-neutral pace of play (30.5 seconds/play), leading to the third highest PROE+ value in the league (explanation of that metric below). And yet, they are still averaging the fewest plays per game at just 52.3. Interestingly enough, they are ranked 23rd (not dead last) in EPA/play, influenced heavily by a ninth-ranked rush EPA/play (similarly held back by a 26th-ranked pass EPA/play), which speaks to how this team would like to try to win under normal circumstances and how they have been forced to try to win through three games. Against a disciplined and athletic opponent in the Ravens, the Titans are going to need to execute on every down to keep from falling behind in a hurry.
The Tennessee offensive line has performed admirably considering the offseason changes, having allowed the eighth lowest pressure rate (26.3 percent) while blocking to the 13th best ARBY (explanation below). That has resulted in Titans running backs averaging the 10th best yards per carry at 4.44. Consistently negative game environments have held the Titans to only 21.3 rush attempts per game, the second fewest in the league. Lead back Tony Pollard is in the “tick below workhorse” range through three weeks, currently sitting at a 66.2 percent backfield opportunity share after operating as a true workhorse in Week 3. The interesting thing about that spike is it appears to be highly unsustainable considering Tyjae Spears has played about 50 percent of the offensive snaps in both games in which he did not leave early due to injury. In other words, this backfield should revert to more of a strict timeshare rather than the variant workhorse situation we saw last week. A split backfield for the team averaging the second fewest carries per game is far from appealing. The Ravens present a neutral rushing matchup behind the 13th best defensive ARBY and an 18th-ranked 4.16 yards allowed per carry mark.
No player on the Titans has a target share over the 22.7 percent of rookie Carnell Tate, with Tony Pollard actually leading the team in targets per route run (TPRR; 0.26, Tate and Wan’Dale Robinson tied at 0.23). They are followed by Spears (0.17), tight end Gunnar Helm (0.17), and Elic Ayomanor (0.15), while Calvin Ridley is effectively running wind sprints (0.06). Over 79 percent of Robinson’s snaps have come from the slot, where he’ll see primary coverage from one of the most dynamic defenders in the league in Kyle Hamilton (91 percent slot coverage rate). No thank you. That leaves Tate to see primary coverage from Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins, who have combined to see an average of 12.67 targets per game in primary coverage. Neither is a defensive liability. The big picture here is that the matchup is poor on paper for all Tennessee pass-catchers. Furthering the case for downside is a quarterback in Cam Ward that ranks 32nd in passing EPA/play, behind the likes of C.J. Stroud and Malik Willis.
Beyond The King
Hilow is dissecting how Baltimore’s O-line injuries and Zay Flowers’ hamstring status reshape your lineup calculus in a lopsided spot. Sign up free.
DFS+ INTERPRETATION::
Added Sep 30, 2026 · 4:27 PM ET
Stack The Eruption
Hilow is building around a full Ravens offensive explosion, but the key decisions on Flowers, Henry, and how Carnell Tate fits change everything.
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