Published Oct 2, 2026 · 12:38 AM ET
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IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::
GAME SETUP ::
- Depleted Dolphins face a Vikings defense blitzing at a 74.7% rate, double any opponent Miami has seen.
- Justin Jefferson is expected to miss with an ankle injury, limiting Minnesota’s passing upside.
MIAMI PATH ::
- Washington, Bell, and Dulcich are the top targets after Achane’s season-ending ACL tear removes a key pass-game weapon.
- Quick passing game is Miami’s best path; the Vikings blitz-heavy scheme leaves the secondary exposed to occasional shot plays.
MINNESOTA PATH ::
- Kyler Murray will hold the ball and throw underneath against Miami’s zone-heavy, low-pressure defense.
- Aaron Jones will carry heavy volume on the ground even if efficiency stays modest against a solid Dolphins run defense.
LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::
- Low-scoring grind is the most probable outcome, similar to Minnesota’s Week 3 win over the Bucs.
- Vikings defense is the volatility catalyst — capable of blowing the game open or surrendering explosive plays that keep Miami close.
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GAME OVERVIEW ::
- Miami’s offense has struggled this season and took a big hit in Week 3 when they lost star running back De’Von Achane for the season to a torn ACL.
- Dolphins rookie wide receiver Caleb Douglas has not yet practiced, leaving receivers Malik Washington and Chris Bell along with tight end Greg Dulcich as the team’s top receiving weapons.
- Minnesota’s defense is blitzing on nearly every play at a rate over twice that of any defense the Dolphins have faced yet.
- Vikings star receiver Justin Jefferson left last week’s win over the Bucs in the first half with an ankle injury and is expected to miss this week and possibly beyond.
- Minnesota and their opponents are both averaging under five yards per play this season.
HOW MIAMI WILL TRY TO WIN::
The Dolphins are clearly in a “rebuilding” year as they attempt an organizational reset on both sides of the ball. The one stabilizing and high level factor was supposed to be star running back De’Von Achane, but Achane went down with what turned out to be a torn ACL in their Week 3 loss to the Chiefs. While the Dolphins will “replace” Achane with some combination of Ollie Gordon II and Jaylen Wright, the reality is that his absence fundamentally changes the nature of their offense and many things that he does simply can’t be replaced. The Dolphins ability to run the ball this week will likely be non-existent as statrankings.com ranks the Dolphins as the sixth worst run blocking unit in the league, have a below replacement level backfield, and are facing a Vikings defense that has held all of their opponents backfields below four yards per carry. Malik Willis may add some rushing yards on the ground out of desperation, but Miami’s running backs are highly unlikely to find success on the ground in terms of consistency or explosive plays.
As for the passing game, Achane was also an integral part of that area of the offense and his targets will have to go somewhere. Miami is also likely to be without rookie WR Caleb Douglas. This leaves them with Malik Washington and Chris Bell as their primary receivers. Washington has run half of his snaps from the slot and he, along with TE Greg Dulcich, will likely see an uptick in usage and targets as a result of Achane’s absence. Dulcich was targeted seven times in Week 3 and caught five passes for 55 yards. Washington was targeted 10 times, catching five for 56 yards. Bell is probably the most talented of the group and looked great as he continues to expand his role from last season’s torn ACL. Those three are likely to be the focal points of the Dolphins game plan for Week 4 with Washington and Dulcich, in particular, operating in the areas most likely to be needed as they deal with the chaotic Vikings blitz-rate.
Minnesota is blitzing on 74.7% of pass plays, with no other defense above 50%. The three teams Miami has played so far this season have blitz rates of 22.1%, 28.2%, and 33.3%. Said another way, the Dolphins are about to be blitzed over twice as much as they have been at any point this season. Miami will still run the ball for purposes of running the game clock and gaining small yardage rather than taking on the potential for negative plays, but their best chance of moving the ball will be in the quick passing game with the occasional shot play dialed up against a Vikings secondary that can be susceptible to big plays. That is the one weakness of playing the way they do, is they leave themselves exposed on the back end. Expect Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores to take his chances and make Miami prove they can beat them with explosive passes, with Minnesota’s blitzes being full throttle.
Inside The Game Flow
Mike Johnson is zeroing in on how Minnesota’s defense and Miami’s zone-heavy scheme shape the Murray-Addison passing outlook. Sign up free to see the full breakdown.
DFS+ Interpretations::
Added Oct 2, 2026 · 12:38 AM ET
Beyond The Volume Play
Mike Johnson is steering away from Aaron Jones despite the volume and locking in on Jordan Addison’s target share as the sharper path through this slate.
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