Published Oct 2, 2026 · 11:49 AM ET
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IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::
GAME SETUP ::
- AFC West showdown between two 3-0 teams, but Kansas City’s underlying metrics are far superior.
- Raiders defense ranks 4th in pressure rate without blitzing, posing a real test for the Chiefs line.
KANSAS CITY PATH ::
- Kenneth Walker III anchors a balanced attack; Chiefs rank 2nd in EPA per rush and lead the NFL in play-action rate.
- Travis Kelce is poised for an uptick after Raiders allowed four tight end touchdowns to the Saints last week.
LAS VEGAS PATH ::
- Brock Bowers returned in Week 3 with a 40% target share and looks like Kubiak’s new JSN as the offensive focal point.
- Ashton Jeanty handles heavy volume on the ground while Tre Tucker provides the explosive-play threat that opens everything else.
LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::
- Clock-draining drives are likely from both run-heavy teams, with scoring hinging on red zone efficiency and explosives.
- Chiefs hold a slight edge with the more explosive back, better quarterback arm, and stronger red zone defense.
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GAME OVERVIEW ::
- This is a showdown between two AFC West rivals who both enter with a 3-0 record, though the underlying metrics point to Kansas City having a much stronger start.
- The Chiefs escaped Miami in Week 3 with a victory despite a somewhat disappointing performance where they let the downtrodden Dolphins hang around.
- Raiders star tight end Brock Bowers returned with a vengeance in Week 3 and appears to be destined for a massive role in new coach Klint Kubiak’s offense.
- Ashton Jeanty continues to lead the Las Vegas backfield and has one of the larger workloads in the NFL, though rookie RB Mike Washington Jr. made a splash play in Week 3 that could lead to increased opportunity.
HOW KANSAS CITY WILL TRY TO WIN::
The Chiefs offense disappointed a bit in Week 3 against the Dolphins relative to the expectations most of us had coming in. Only 24 points and 334 total yards for an offense that had been dominant the first two weeks are not the type of production that you are expecting from a Patrick Mahomes led offense facing one of the worst teams in the league. A deeper dive and watching the game in its entirety, however, shows that the cumulative stats were muted by game flow more than anything. Kansas City averaged 6.8 yards per play, but ran only 49 plays as the Dolphins were able to sustain drives. Miami did not have a single three and out possession in the game, with four of their drives lasting 11 plays or longer. The public perception of the Chiefs Week 3 offensive performance may be that they “disappointed,” but that is simply not true. They were facing a patient offense that was just good enough to gain first downs, but not talented enough to break off big plays against them. Going forward we should view this Chiefs offense exactly as we did prior to last week – a well schemed unit led by Patrick Mahomes and Kenneth Walker III, with complementary pieces around them.
This week against the Raiders, the Chiefs offensive line will face a much tougher test than they had the last two weeks against the Dolphins and Colts. Per statrankings.com, Las Vegas ranks 4th in the NFL in pressure rate, but only 31st in blitz rate. These stats complement each other well in these scenarios because what it tells us is the Raiders are getting a lot of pressure, but not having to sacrifice defenders in coverage to accomplish that. The Raiders defense, however, has faced the Dolphins, Chargers, and Saints offenses to date. Those three teams have much worse running games than the Chiefs, who rank 2nd in EPA per rush and 6th in rushing success rate. Expect the Chiefs to get Kenneth Walker III going early in this game and a focus on balance and the running game which will create opportunities for their league leading play action passing game. Kansas City leads the NFL in play action rate with 37.3% of their pass plays coming off play action. The Raiders defense has faced the second lowest play action rate this season and will be truly tested in that area for the first time.
Kansas City has led or been second in pass rate over expectation (PROE) every season dating back to 2021 (as far back as Stat Rankings database goes), but they rank 6th in that metric this season as they lean into a more balanced approach and the result has been a much more efficient offense and actually an increase in explosive plays. Kenneth Walker III will be heavily involved in this game and the focal point of what the Chiefs do. Expect Travis Kelce to see an uptick in usage this week as the Chiefs play volume normalizes and he has a matchup with a Raiders defense that gave up FOUR touchdowns to Saints tight ends last week. Xavier Worthy is used in more of a “gadget” role with his speed used to stretch defenses horizontally on motions and sweeps, while Tyquan Thornton is more of a vertical threat. Among the receivers, Rashee Rice is still the most involved and likely to see meaningful targets, but with Walker in the backfield Rice’s role has taken a backseat from what we saw the last couple of years.
Inside The Edge
Mike Johnson is breaking down how Bowers, Jeanty, and the Chiefs defense shape the scoring outlook in this AFC West showdown. Sign up free to finish.
DFS+ Interpretations::
Added Oct 2, 2026 · 11:49 AM ET
The Kubiak Connection
Mike Johnson is building around a Klint Kubiak pattern that reshapes how he values Brock Bowers and the entire Raiders passing game this week.
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