Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- RB Alvin Kamara did not practice Wednesday. In fact, he has yet to practice the six previous weeks since his MCL sprain.
- WR Mason Tipton also did not practice Wednesday. He was limited throughout the week last week before sitting out, indicating he could have suffered a setback at the tail end of last week.
- The Falcons appear to be fully healthy outside of the absence of starting quarterback Michael Penix.
- Chris Olave’s 20.4 expected fantasy points per game (XFP/G) over the last three would edge Ja’Marr Chase for first in the league over the full season. He is on an absolutely torrid stretch.
- Bijan Robinson has scored 29.8 DK points in five of his last seven games.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How new orleans Will Try To Win ::
Winners of four straight, the Saints appear to be putting the pieces together at the tail end of their first season under new head coach Kellen Moore. That said, those wins have come against the reeling Buccaneers, who have lost seven of their last eight, the Panthers, who have traded wins and losses for the previous 10 weeks, a Jets team on its third string quarterback, and a three-win Titans team. They have managed to score 20 or more in each of those four wins after failing to do so once in rookie quarterback Tyler Shough’s first five NFL starts. The pace in New Orleans continues to be blistering, but a matchup with the Falcons will be their toughest test since the last time they met back in Week 12. The general principles of Moore’s offense persist through the quarterback change, with elevated rates of motion, play action, and bunch formations designed to generate space for his primary play makers to take advantage of. The motion is most interesting from the perspective of his offensive structure as he utilizes pretty much every eligible player on the field in various packages – everyone from Olave, to Juwan Johson, to Taysom Hill, to the backs gets in on the magic. That makes the offense extremely difficult for opposing defenses to diagnose.
Former Denver castaway Audric Estime took a commanding share of the backfield opportunities in Week 17 after the entire unit effectively took a back seat to one of the highest pass rate over expectation (PROE) games of any team in any game this season a week prior. It remains to be seen if Kamara can make it back in time for the team’s final game of the season, although it certainly appears likely that he’ll miss his sixth consecutive game after missing practice again Wednesday. Estime handled 14 carries and saw one target on a robust 76% snap rate against the Titans, which combined with an increased snap rate from tight end Moliki Matavao to reduce the involvement of veteran “tight end” Hill, who played just seven offensive snaps. Estime would appear to have a path to 18-22 opportunities in the right game environment. The Falcons have allowed the seventh-most rush yards per game (127.4), 4.6 yards per carry (26th), and 22.5 DK points per game to opposing backfields. A total of 73.7% of Estime’s carries the previous two weeks have come behind zone concepts, against which the Falcons have held opponents to just 3.99 yards per carry while struggling to contain man/gap concepts (5.01 yards per carry allowed, sixth most in the league). The schematical matchup appears to be against Estime here.
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
Olave has put the league on notice the previous three weeks, accounting for a 0.33 targets per route run (TPRR), 3.26 yards per route run (YPRR), 352 yards, four touchdowns, and an elite 0.77 fantasy points per route run (FP/RR) in that timeframe. His 20.4 XFP/G in those games would rank first in the league over the full season, 0.1 ahead of Ja’Marr Chase’s 20.3. The Falcons utilize the league’s fourth-highest rate of Cover-3 (39.0%), which has led to the second-highest rate of single-high alignments when combined with a slightly above-average 19.5% Cover-1 rate. Olave has completely dominated against single-high looks with Shough under center, responsible for a 0.31 TPRR (nobody else higher than the 0.22 of Johnson), 2.66 YPRR (nobody else higher than the 1.92 of Johnson), and 0.60 FP/RR in that split. The absences of Rashid Shaheed (trade), Brandin Cooks (release), Devaughn Vele (injury), and Mason Tipton (injury) had Kevin Austin playing in a featured role for the second consecutive game in Week 17, while Dante Pettis stepped into the WR3 role. We talked about the relative upside of Austin compared to some of the other cheap chalk last week, which appears to remain intact ahead of Week 18. Tight end Foster Moreau’s season also ended two weeks ago, which helps to explain the introduction of Matavao, who is a much better blocker than Johnson and Hill, into the offensive game plan.
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