GAME OVERVIEW ::
BY HILOW >>
- I’m writing this game up on Tuesday because neither team has experienced any major injuries through three weeks – make sure to check back Friday for any personnel-driven updates.
- James Cook is always a threat to go over 100 yards and score multiple touchdowns in this offense, regardless of his low likelihood of seeing more than 22-24 opportunities. That makes him appear to be overpriced relative to his workload, and tougher to click when building rosters.
- Josh Allen now has 10 games finishing in the top two in raw points at the position since the start of the 2023 season – a Bills skill-position player has finished in the top three at their respective position in those games only three times (Stefon Diggs in 2023, James Cook in 2024, and Keon Coleman in 2025).
- Those 10 occurences came in a 48-20 win over the Dolphins in Week 4 2023, a 25-20 loss to the Jaguars in Week 5 2023, a 24-18 win over the Buccaneers in Week 8 2023, a 37-34 overtime loss to the Eagles in Week 12 2023, a 27-20 win over the Patriots in Week 16 2023, a 34-28 win over the Cardinals in Week 1 2024, a 47-10 win over the Jaguars in Week 3 2024, a 44-42 loss to the Rams in Week 14 2024, a 48-42 win over the Lions in Week 15 2025, and their 41-40 win in Week 1 2025.
- The Bills lead the league with 420.0 total yards of offense per game and have scored 30 or more points in three straight, while the Saints have managed just 15.7 points per game (29th) and 302.0 yards of total offense per game (tied for 19th).
- The Bills and Saints are tied atop the league in plays per game (68.7) with the Cowboys.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
HOW NEW ORLEANS WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Saints are in complete “treading water” mode and it’s only Week 4. This team is not as bad as everyone seems to think considering the veteran talent they have on defense, the talent in their skill-position corps, and elite coaching up and down the roster, but they will remain a bottom feeder for as long as their quarterback situation remains one of the worst in the league. It’s simply too hard to win in the league today without a solid option under center, and the Saints are proving that beyond a reasonable doubt in 2025. They should continue to play teams in the bottom half of the league tight (Cardinals in Week 1 and 49ers without Brock Purdy, George Kittle, and Brandon Aiyuk in Week 2) but should continue getting romped by top-half teams (Seahawks in Week 3). That places their expectations fairly low against a legitimate Super Bowl contender in the Bills here. I expect the Saints to be reactive by nature in this spot after a run-balanced start, evidenced by their 26th-ranked -2.0% pass rate over expectation (PROE) through three games. Their blazing pace of play took a slight hit in their blowout loss to the Seahawks (24.5 seconds per play in their first two games and 27.7 seconds per play in that Week 3 loss), but it still would rank first in the league over the full season. This offense is going to play fast, and there are going to be a lot of plays run from scrimmage here.
Veteran Alvin Kamara has been in a “tick below workhorse” role through three games, in his age-30 season, in his ninth year in the league. And while I don’t expect that to be sustainable for the entirety of the 2025 season, this dude is currently handling volume with the best of them. The biggest change for Kamara this season is a sudden drop in pass-game involvement after seeing only 10 targets through three games. He saw three or fewer targets (less than his average this season) only four times the previous two seasons combined. He’s actually been in a route at the highest rate over the previous three season (59.0%), telling me that this isn’t a structure problem or a scheme problem, it simply seems to be a Spencer Rattler problem. And since Rattler is in line to continue to start for the Saints, I think it is unlikely we magically see Kamara’s targets spike. That leaves him as a back that needs to hit 100/2 on the ground to return GPP viability, something that appears unlikely here despite the Bills allowing a league-worst 6.2 yards per carry this season. Kendre Miller is on hand for strict change-of-pace duties and does not merit fantasy consideration.
Crash the leaderboards
PFP the OWS pennant
Chris Olave leads the league in targets (tied with Puka Nacua with 35) and expected fantasy points per game (XFP/G) (21.6) but just 30th in fantasy points per game (FP/G) (13.2). That delta in XFP/G and FP/G stands as the highest in the league through three weeks. There are two ways to look at that: (1) Olave is due for significant progression (positive regression), or (2) Spencer Rattler is incapable of supporting an elite option through the air. I think it’s too early to call it definitively either way, but early returns seem to hint the conclusion will eventually become the latter. The biggest early-season surprise from the Saints has to be tight end Juwan Johnson, who has been in a route at the fifth highest rate in the league (76.9%) and ranks second in targets (28, behind only Jake Ferguson), amongst tight ends. His 0.27 targets per route run (TPRR) also ranks second. He appears to be the biggest beneficiary of Rattler being under center, a quarterback that struggles with getting through progressions and reading opposing defenses. The pass offense is really a four-man entity, with all of Olave, Johnson, Rashid Shaheed, and Brandin Cooks in a route on more than 73% of the dropbacks (next closest is Devaughn Vele at a modest 13.5%). This offense could return top-tier fantasy outcomes if Rattler can improve upon his 5.37 yards per attempt (YPA) and lowly 3.36% touchdown rate. This doesn’t appear to be the spot for that to happen, but we should keep it in mind moving forward.
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