Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- These two teams have faced, or forced, the highest (Packers) and third-highest (Vikings) rush rate over expectation (RROE) this season, with the Packers, in particular, facing absurd rush rates following the season-ending injury to Micah Parsons.
- QB Clayton Tune will start for the Packers, while the QB2 role is up in the air due to injuries to Malik Willis. That could leave Desmond Ridder in that role.
- The Packers appear likely to rest key starters after suffering two more defensive injuries in their Week 17 loss to the Ravens.
- WR Dontayvion Wicks (concussion) is all but assuredly set to miss Week 18.
- TE T.J. Hockenson (shoulder) missed both practices for the Vikings through Thursday. He appears headed for another absence to end the season.
- RB Aaron Jones (hip) also did not practice through Thursday.
- QB J.J. McCarthy (hand) upgraded to a full session Thursday and should be in line to start for the Vikings.
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How GREEN BAY Will Try To Win ::
The Packers will start quarterback Tune in Week 18, even though Jordan Love cleared concussion protocol early this week. Malik Willis is dealing with hamstring and shoulder injuries, with the team uncertain about his ability to serve as the backup to Tune. That could leave recent acquisition Ridder as the QB2 in Green Bay this weekend. Either way, it’ll be Tune under center for the Packers as they wrap up their regular season locked into the No. 7 seed in the NFC. The Packers have been a streaky team this season, losing to the Browns in Week 3 before tying the Cowboys a week later, then ripping off three straight wins before losing consecutive games to the Panthers and Eagles, then winning four straight before three consecutive losses to the Broncos, Bears, and Ravens. They’ve dealt with injuries throughout the year, so we can’t simply point to the fact that they started the year without multiple wide receivers, or lost Parsons for the season, or lost Love for two games due to a concussion. That’s simply the nature of the beast when you have a head coach that maneuvers his way through games as opposed to running up the score. A whopping 10 of Green Bay’s 16 games thus far have been one-possession games, with the team equally as unlikely to blow teams out as they are to get blown out, themselves. That general game plan shouldn’t change, regardless of who is under center or how deep into the game the starters play.
Josh Jacobs has been on the injury report for the better part of the previous six weeks, this time with knee and ankle injuries. It was the same story last week, and he ended up seeing only four carries and one target on 13 offensive snaps (28% snap rate). I would venture a guess that we don’t see him handle a workhorse workload in game with zero meaning to the team’s postseason seeding, likely leaving Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks to handle increased workloads as the primary options. Wilson is an oversized, between-the-tackles grinder with sneaky hands while Brooks profiles purely as a change-of-pace, pass-catching specialist, meaning we should see clearly defined roles with neither back running away with the usage. The Vikings have held opponents to just 4.0 yards per carry (sixth) but face one of the highest opponent rush rates this season, leading to an average of 123.9 rush yards per game against (22nd).
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Wicks appears highly likely to be absent in Week 18. Savion Williams upgraded to a limited session Thursday and appears likely to play, which could give the Packers the ability to limit the starters (Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Luke Musgrave). I would expect Williams, Bo Melton, and tight end Josh Whyle to see growing roles as the game progresses, particularly considering the recent run of injuries the Packers have experienced to end the season. That could also include a practice-squad elevation, although the team is in desperate need of additional bodies on the defensive side of the ball as well. Either way, I wouldn’t expect full-time roles for any of the starters in a meaningless game. The fact that Tune is starting under center also limits the appeal of the Green Bay pass catchers. I think we can confidently write off all options on a large slate.
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