GAME OVERVIEW ::
BY HILOW >>
- The Eagles have been “winning dirty” through three weeks, escaping a close one against the Cowboys in Week 1, narrowly beating the Chiefs in Week 2, and walking the game off via a blocked field goal as time expired in Week 3 against the Rams.
- The structure of the Philadelphia offense is as bad as I’ve seen it in the Jalen Hurts era. Routes take too long to develop, route layering is off, players too often find themselves in the same areas of the field (which drags multiple defenders), and the structure doesn’t promote getting players in space.
- Saquon Barkley is averaging 3.34 yards per carry while running from shotgun at a 72.4% frequency. Just another data point for the static nature of the offense.
- WR Mike Evans was a ‘DNP’ Wednesday with a hamstring injury. Another season, another hamstring issue for Evans.
- WR Chris Godwin upgraded to a full participant Wednesday, his first such practice of the season. He appears to be nearing a return, potentially for Week 4.
- The Buccaneers are 3-0 with an average margin of victory of two points – they have won three games with a combined margin of victory of six total points.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
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HOW philadelphia WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Eagles keep finding ways to win. That said, it has not been pretty to start the season. Their offense has been static, their run game has not been kickstarted, and their bend-but-don’t-break defense has more cracks in it than we’ve seen in previous seasons. This team could just as easily be 0-3 than 3-0, but the general feeling is that the defending Super Bowl champions are a 3-0, dominant team still. That has not yet been the case to start the season. The strengths of this team is its front seven on defense and its offensive line, and the Eagles are now more than comfortable winning through those two avenues. They really had no business beating the Rams but managed to hold Los Angeles to six field-goal attempts, blocking the final two.
Hurts saw his first designed run in the team’s Week 3 win over the Rams, which came on fourth-and-2 on their first possession. That kind of highlights the changing dynamics of this offense behind a new offensive coordinator in Kevin Patullo. The early results have been less than promising on film, with very little pre-snap motion and little in the way of misdirection and dynamic route layering. Hurts continues to be a menace in short-yardage situations, scoring four times on the ground via the Tush Push already this season. Barkley is currently averaging just 3.34 yards per carry with a 1.7% explosive-run rate and only 50% of the team’s carries inside the five (thank you, Tush Push). That also comes with a 51.7% stuff rate and only three missed tackles forced on 58 carries. Again, Patullo is doing this man no favors, and teams are not even stacking boxes at an elevated rate against the Eagles through three weeks (6.4 average defenders in the box). One of the biggest issues is the high shotgun carry rate utilized by the Eagles (72.4%), adding to the static nature of the offense. The matchup on the ground is not ideal against a Buccaneers team holding opponents to 3.6 yards per carry behind 1.43 yards allowed before contact per attempt. Finally, the Eagles are blocking to just 1.79 yards before contact per attempt.
A lot of what I’m seeing that is currently wrong with this offense has to do with the structure itself more than anything wrong with the players. Routes take too long to develop, route layering is off, players too often find themselves in the same areas of the field (which drags multiple defenders), and the structure doesn’t promote getting players in space. Even little things like screens to Barkley aren’t hitting home. The few I saw from last week had three wide receivers effectively running go routes against zone coverage, with all defenders keyed in on the football. They had no chance to be effective. A.J. Brown looked absolutely dominant against the Rams, routinely showcasing his elite physicality and body control. The structure of the offense is doing him no favors, but he continually won against tight man coverage. Dallas Goedert is a more complementary piece to the offense in its current form while DeVonta Smith ranks near Brown in most meaningful metrics. The Buccaneers present an interesting matchup as they’ve continued to run above average rates of single-high (52.4%), something that could give Brown more one-on-one coverages similar to what he saw against the Rams last week. It isn’t a particularly great matchup on paper considering the structure of the offense, but Brown is a player that can beat man at a high level.
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