Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- RBs Javonte Williams (shoulder/neck) and Malik Davis (calf/eye) did not practice for the Cowboys Wednesday or Thursday.
- TE Jake Ferguson (calf) upgraded to a limited showing Thursday and appears to be tracking to play in Week 18.
- WR Wan’Dale Robinson (ribs) has yet to practice this week for the Giants.
- WR Jalin Hyatt and TE Theo Johnson have both not practiced this week due to illness.
- I would expect the Cowboys to tilt much more pass-heavy should both Williams and Davis miss, considering the only remaining running backs on the roster would be rookie Jaydon Blue, who has been active in only four games this season, and practice squad back Israel Abanikanda.
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How dallas Will Try To Win ::
The addition of a viable running back in Javonte Williams has given the Cowboys the ability to be a bit more balanced this season when compared to previous years, coming into Week 18 ranked ninth in PROE. That said, a defense allowing the most points per game (29.8) has kept its aerial aggression high, averaging the third most pass attempts per game at 37.5. That could take an even bigger step forward against the Giants after both Williams and primary backup running back Malik Davis have yet to practice through Thursday, something that could leave rookie Jaydon Blue as the primary back for the Cowboys. Blue has not been active on game day since Week 8 and only had a four-game spurt up with the team following the injury to Miles Sanders, which would make it likelier, in my mind, that we see the team heavily focused on moving the football through Dak Prescott, should the top two backs miss. Stay tuned for news out of Dallas on Friday, as the status of their backfield could have a meaningful influence on their game plan and tendencies come Sunday.
As was discussed above, the career resurgence from Williams has given the Cowboys the ability to be slightly more balanced than they have been in recent seasons, something that could change drastically should both Williams and Davis miss. Both backs have yet to practice this week and appear to be in legitimate danger of missing the season finale against a divisional foe. Although it would be Blue pretty much alone in the backfield if both top backs miss, the team would likely elevate Israel Abanikanda on Saturday, who is the only running back currently on the team’s practice squad. I would also expect a more pass-focused offense that runs primarily through Prescott and the pass-catchers, leaving Blue and Abanikanda to share the load in the backfield. Abanikanda profiles as the better early-down option, while Blue profiles as a change of pace back, which is the expectation I would have if the two enter Sunday as the top options. The Giants present a plus matchup on the ground, having allowed the most yards per carry (5.3) and largest explosive run rate this season, but I have my doubts as to the Cowboys’ desire and/or ability to take advantage of the situation if both top backs are out. That stance changes significantly if either Williams or Davis is active, and we should expect the one who plays to handle a potential workhorse role in a sparkling matchup.
Under the assumptions derived above, I would expect Prescott to have a clear path to 35-45 pass attempts this week. Dock that projection slightly if Williams or Davis play, but both are currently trending towards an absence. Ryan Flournoy appears set to return from a one-game absence to join CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens as the top receivers, with Jalen Tolbert and KaVontae Turpin on hand for situational snaps at wide receiver. Tight end Jake Ferguson appears in line to not miss any games with a calf injury sustained last week that limited him to only 27 offensive snaps. The Giants rank fourth in the league in man coverage rate (37.1%) and fifth in the league in single-high alignments. Lamb leads the team in TPRR (0.33) but trails Pickens in YPRR (3.43 to 3.06, both still elite) and FP/RR (0.64 to 0.53) as the top two options against man coverage for the Cowboys, while the two also run away with underlying metrics against single-high (Pickens: 0.28 TPRR, 3.55 YPRR, 0.75 FP/RR; Lamb: 0.30 TPRR, 2.99 YPRR, 0.55 FP/RR). Ferguson is a distant third in all three metrics, although he carries an elevated red zone role for the Cowboys this season. All three primary pass-catchers are in a good spot this week, and there is clear potential to stack from one to three of with Prescott in this spot.
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