Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- TE Dalton Schultz missed practice on Wednesday for personal reasons. That doesn’t immediately place his status for Week 18 in question, although we’ll want to monitor his status the remainder of the week.
- The Texans could be without key defensive players, as Azeez Al-Shaair, Kamari Lassiter, Derek Stingley, Sheldon Rankins, and Denico Autry did not practice on Wednesday.
- CB Sauce Gardner found his way back to a missed practice on Wednesday after sustaining a calf injury in Week 17.
- Head coach Shane Steichen announced early this week that rookie Riley Leonard will start for the Colts in Week 18.
- This game does not strike us as one with a ton of certainty.
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How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::
The Colts will turn to rookie quarterback Riley Leonard to close out their regular season. The team was eliminated from playoff contention before playing in Week 17, but started veteran Philip Rivers after preparing for it all week. It has been a true fall from grace for the Colts this season after sitting at 8-2 in their first 10 games, with Week 18 presenting the potential for the team to go 0-7 to finish the season following their Week 11 bye. Currently instilled as 10-point road dogs, that definitely appears to be the likeliest scenario. We haven’t heard any additional coach speak from head coach Shane Steichen regarding expected playing time for his typical starters, although I have to think the team might be looking to get more game reps for youngsters, which could include running back DJ Giddens and potentially Laquon Treadwell and Coleman Owen, if active on game day.
The “pass to score, run to win” mantra from Steichen has hit running back Jonathan Taylor harder than any other player on the team, considering the Colts have not won a game after their bye. Taylor averages 33.1 DK points per game in wins this season and just 13.2 DK points per game in losses, peaking at only 17.4 DK points in a loss. Furthermore, 2025 fifth-round rookie DJ Giddens returned from an extended absence in Week 17 and could be more involved in the offensive game plan, limiting Taylor’s workload and upside in the process. Finally, the Texans have held opposing backfields to just 20.8 DK points per game while ceding the third fewest rush yards per game. This certainly does not appear to be a promising spot on paper for the veteran workhorse.
We have such a small sample with Leonard under center for the Colts that it becomes extremely difficult to hammer down how we expect the offense to look this week. The only thing we have to go off of is the fact that Leonard’s Colts offense was almost entirely based in the short areas of the field after averaging only 5.0 yards per pass attempt in relief in Week 14, effectively removing the per-target upside of Alec Pierce in the process. Leonard leaned on Pittman heavily in that game, with the veteran X finishing the game with 12 targets in an extremely negative game environment. Realize that any player in a short-to-intermediate-area role requires both heavy volume and a score to return GPP viability, while also likely needing some sort of broken play to pierce the 100-yard threshold to hit the bonus. That isn’t likely in this matchup, but it is within Pittman’s range of outcomes here. I would call all other pass-catchers shaky bets this week, which includes Pierce, Josh Downs, rookie tight end Tyler Warren, Ashton Dulin, and Mo Alie-Cox.
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