Kickoff Sunday, Nov 20th 8:20pm Eastern

Chiefs (
29) at

Chargers (

Over/Under 52.5


Key Matchups
Chiefs Run D
27th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
28th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
5th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
16th DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Chargers Run D
22nd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
11th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
30th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
6th DVOA/19th Yards per pass


Sunday Night Football brings us an exciting matchup as the Chiefs visit the recently healthy Chargers for a 52-point total game with Kansas City favored by 5.5. So, basically, we’re expecting a shootout. Seems fun! Let’s explore it.

Kansas City

The big news out of Kansas City is Isaiah Pacheco seizing the RB1 role away from Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who has played just 17% and 6% of the snaps the past two weeks. I’m assuming this is an intentional change and will continue, however, keep in mind this is the Chiefs we’re talking about – one of the pass-heaviest teams in the NFL. Pacheco saw 16 carries last week but that was in a game the Chiefs were dominating from start to finish. I’d expect something like 10-13 carries in a “normal” game plan. His passing game role is also dubious, with just three targets on the year, and Jerick McKinnon is going to vacuum up the bulk of the passing down work. Pacheco is interesting because he’s the shiny new thing, but there’s really nothing to point to him being anything different than CEH (except perhaps a bit more efficient). He’s going to get some carries, and he’s going to need to find his way into the end zone to matter. I would prefer McKinnon in a vacuum, whose passing game role gives him a strong floor on any given week. McKinnon also works very nicely in rosters that are predicated on the Chargers winning or at least playing from ahead, and his price is very favorable. CEH would be a wild “maybe the role changes back” play at no ownership but there’s also nothing to point to it happening.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman are out, leaving the Chiefs with Travis Kelce as the TE1/WR1, and then a group around him of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, Justin Watson, and Skyy Moore. Toney saw a lot of use on just 44% of the snaps this week and I’d expect him to be in a nearly full-time role this week – he’s my favorite of the bunch (I’m biased towards Toney, I’ll admit – I played like 25% of him last week on the main slate). He is hands-down the most talented wide receiver on the roster and he isn’t quite priced like it at just $8,000. Next for me comes Watson, who played 73% of the snaps last week, and that was with JuJu playing at the start of the game. Watson’s box score dud has led to him being left at just $1,400, which is egregious; he’s the best value play on the slate by a mile. MVS is fine – he’s highly volatile, he’s going to carry a lot of ownership, but he’s certainly cheap and has ceiling. Moore is a wild card, as we don’t know how involved he’s going to be; remember, he had a great preseason camp leading to him being aggressively drafted in Best Ball, but he’s barely played so there’s something the coaching staff is seeing that they don’t like. He only played 25% of the snaps last week despite Hardman missing the game and JuJu leaving early. It’s possible his role grows – he seems talented – but it’s hard to say if this will be the game. If the field is going to overlook him, I’ll happily be overweight, but if he’s going to be popular, I’ll be under. What I mean by that is that I’m comfortable with maybe 15-20% of Moore across my rosters, regardless of what the field does. Kelce is, of course, Kelce and he’s elite. He’s a smash play. He’s awesome. 


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