Kickoff Sunday, Nov 20th 1:00pm Eastern

Bears (
23) at

Falcons (

Over/Under 48.5


Key Matchups
Bears Run D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
20th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
17th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
22nd DVOA/8th Yards per pass
Falcons Run D
8th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
10th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
29th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
23rd DVOA/23rd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • The highest total game on the slate is between two of the most run-oriented teams in football.
  • The Falcons backfield is a chopped-up timeshare.
  • David Montgomery is set to reprise his workhorse role.
  • Justin Fields is more fairly priced this week.
  • None of the passing game options see any volume.
  • These two teams are dead last in pressure rate.

How Chicago Will Try To Win ::

The 3-7 Bears come into Week 10 on the heels of a three game losing streak, having lost five of their past six games. The final score hasn’t reflected the progress the Bears have made on offense over the past six weeks. As DFS players, it’s easy to think of the Bears as a resounding success, but as a coaching staff or owner, the results haven’t been what you want. It’s worth mentioning that discrepancy because the mood of the actual Bears players is likely very different from the sentiment currently felt about them in fantasy football. Regardless of their record, Matt “can I get a clue?” Eberflus got a clue and the Bears offense has evolved into what resembles the early Lamar Jackson Ravens. The Bears coaching staff deserves a lot of credit for making an excellent mid-season adjustment, although it begs the question, why weren’t they using Justin Fields as a hybrid QB/RB before? Whatever the answer, the Bears offense has put up 33/29/32/30 averaging 31 points over their past four games. For perspective, the Chiefs are number one in the league in scoring and average 30 points a game. 

Chicago plays slow (24th overall in pace) but plays noticeably quicker (14th in situational neutral pace) when the game is close. The Bears overall pace number is dragged down by their willingness to plod (28th in pace) if they have the lead. The rest of their pace numbers are more neutral than slow and although they’ll never be confused with the Charges, the Bears are playing fast enough that their pace doesn’t drag down a game environment unless they have a large lead. The Bears have turned the corner on offense but their defense wasn’t good before and is now horrific after trading away two of their better defensive players (Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith) which makes it unlikely that Chicago takes a big lead in this game.

The Falcons have been whipped through the air (29th in DVOA) and stomped on the ground (25th in DVOA). The Falcons defense has been a sieve all year, only holding the banged-up Chargers below 25 in their past five games. Dean Pees uses a unique defensive system that runs a 3-4 base but is frequently lined up in exotic fronts without many down linemen. The results have been an inability to stop the run based on scheme, and an inability to stop the pass based on poor personnel combined with lack of pressure (dead last in pressure rate). The Bears have been explosive but they are limiting Fields’ passing attempts (3rd highest rush rate), and their offensive line is much better at run blocking (14th in adjusted line yards) than pass blocking (dead last in adjusted sack rate), providing more incentive to “run the damn ball.” There is every reason to think the Bears will stick with their run heavy approach, using Fields as a dual-threat runner and passer.   

How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::

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