Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Rookie QB Jaxson Dart is set to take over under center for the Giants. Dart had a highly productive preseason, completing 32-of-47 passes for 372 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions, and 52 yards and a score on six carries. Dart brings a strong arm, is willing to be aggressive downfield, has solid processing, and brings some dual-threat elements to the table.
- RB Omarion Hampton has less competition for backfield opportunities after Najee Harris tore his Achilles in Week 3.
- WR Malik Nabers did not practice on Wednesday with a shoulder injury. This is a big deal, not only for his potential availability this weekend, but for the lost practice reps with a new quarterback. TE Theo Johnson also missed practice on Wednesday with a toe injury.
- The Chargers rank first in pass rate over expectation (PROE) while the Giants have faced the sixth highest PROE on the defensive side of the ball.
How los angeles Will Try To Win ::
This offense has been entirely focused on winning games through the arm (and legs, I suppose) of quarterback Justin Herbert. And why not, the dude is a top five pocket passer with plus mobility. Completely unlike the current state of the Giants offensive structure (more on this below), I’m also quite fond of the structure and scheme of Greg Roman’s offense. The route layering and situational play calling have been nothing short of elite on tape. He is optimizing the playmakers he has, creating space and stressing opposing defenses on multiple levels. The Chargers have been a fun watch through three weeks, and I hope they continue leaning into the aggression we’ve seen thus far. On the defensive side of the ball, defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has leaned into zone (fifth-ranked 80.3% zone frequency) while blitzing at a low 14.2% frequency, effectively forcing their opposition to string together drives and march the field to put up points. They have allowed only two passing touchdowns through three games, one each to the Chiefs and Broncos.
Yes, Omarion Hampton has less competition for opportunities following the torn Achilles suffered by Najee Harris, but this is already a back that saw 80% of his team’s offensive snaps in Week 1, playing for the offense first in PROE through three weeks. In other words, there is only so much “bump to projections” he can take on in Week 4. The Chargers have generated just 1.11 yards before contact per attempt, while Hampton has gone three games without averaging more than 3.7 yards per carry. I get the Best Ball and season-long hype here, but I am struggling to see a viable path to ceiling against a Giants defense facing one of the highest PROE values against this season, considering the current state of this offense. Journeyman backup Hassan Haskins should step into the change-of-pace role behind Hampton.
Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston are the near every-down pass-catchers in this offense, each in a route at an elite rate. In the absence of tight end Will Dissly in Week 3, rookie Oronde Gadsden saw seven targets but ran only 15 routes (one more than Tyler Conklin), while Keenan Allen continued to operate in plus rotational role. Allen’s 49.0% slot rate highlights the dynamism of the offense, which moves its primary pieces around the formation to generate plus matchups. It’s also a highly concentrated offense on the surface, with McConkey, Johnston, and Allen all seeing more than 19% of the targets and 0.18 TPRR. No other pass-catcher has seen more than seven targets, which were the seven from Gadsden last week. The Giants have faced the sixth highest PROE against this season, clearly a move to attack something other than their elite defensive line. I see more of the same here, as those tendencies align with how the Chargers have been looking to win games.
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