Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- RBs Trey Benson and Emari Demercado are both out for the Cardinals, while Zonovan Knight is listed as questionable after a week of limited showings.
- WR Marvin Harrison Jr is questionable after his emergency appendectomy three weeks ago.
- RB Bucky Irving is questionable following a week of limited sessions. He is expected to make his return.
- QB Baker Mayfield is also listed as questionable after going DNP-limited-full in practice this week. Head coach Todd Bowles said Friday that he “looked good today, so he’s trending to play.”
- The Tampa Bay backfield appears to be in a good spot on paper but comes with extreme uncertainty regarding expected workload split.
JM’S JOURNAL ::
Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.
How arizona Will Try To Win ::
Arizona’s pass attempts in games started by Jacoby Brissett this season: 44 in a 31-27 loss to the Colts, 36 in a 27-23 loss to the Packers, 31 in a 27-17 win over the Cowboys, 44 in a 44-22 loss to the Seahawks, 57 in a record-setting, 41-22 loss to the 49ers in which Brissett set the NFL record for most completions in a game with 47, and 49 in a 27-24 loss to the Jaguars. Of note, the Cardinals scored 22 points or more in all six of those games after failing to do so in four of five Kyler Murray starts. That stretch has the Cardinals now second in the league in pass rate over expectation (PROE) behind only the Chiefs. This team can’t stop a sneeze on defense as they’ve struggled through numerous key injuries on the defensive side of the ball, now ranked 25th in points allowed per game at 25.7. These are all tendencies that contribute to weekly interest in attacking games involving the Cardinals.
What’s more, the backfield remains in a complete state of disarray, and could potentially be getting worse with the presence of Bam Knight on the injury report with a questionable designation. Cardinals backs are averaging 4.18 yards per carry since Week 5, which were all games played without both James Conner and Trey Benson. The Buccaneers continue to be a pass-funnel defense, now facing the third highest PROE, the seventh highest overall pass rate (60.73%), and the 11th-most pass attempts per game (34.1). Nothing here points to a plus matchup or an expectation for increased volume from the Arizona backfield.
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PFP the OWS pennant
Which brings us to the pass game. Brissett is averaging 43.5 pass attempts per game in his six starts, which had been a fantasy goldmine without Harrison and the team left with only tight end Trey McBride and wide receivers Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch as regular contributors. That setup could take a slight hit with Harrison expected back this week, with much of the changes in the volume expectations likely to move from Dortch and Wilson and to Harrison. The team has played three games with all four pass catchers healthy and Brissett under center (Weeks 7, 9, and 10), during which time McBride handily led the team in underlying metrics, followed by Harrison and then a massive tier drop to the remaining two. Also of note here is the expected return of Jamel Dean to the Bucs’ secondary, which is a massive improvement over Benjamin Morrison and Kindle Vildor. And with much of the production against the Buccaneers coming via wide receivers, it does raise the potential for Wilson to see additional looks against primary coverage from Zyon McCollum.
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