Browns (

17.25) at
Lions (

27.25)

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Quinshon Judkins ranks 17th in XFP/G behind 0.25 missed tackles forced per attempt, a 7.1% explosive run rate, and 3.43 yards after contact per attempt.
• TE David Njoku (knee) and WR Cedric Tillman (hand, hip) were each limited on Wednesday.
• The Lions only held a walkthrough Wednesday after playing on Monday in Week 3. That said, there were no surprises on their first injury report of the week.
• No Cleveland pass-catcher has seen more than 16.3% of the team’s targets through three weeks. No wide receiver has a TPRR greater than 0.18 (Jeudy).
• The Browns have really been that good on defense this year. They have played 10 quarters of elite football on that side of the ball, something that mutes the game environment here.
• The duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is combining to account for 34 opportunities per game through three weeks.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The Browns have entirely bought into a mindset built around their defense, something that has kept them competitive in every game this season (remember, they were down 10-3 at the half against the Ravens in Week 2 before giving up four second-half touchdowns, lost to the Bengals on a missed field goal, and beat the Packers in spectacular fashion). Their offense is nothing special, based almost entirely out of shotgun with little misdirection. They also prefer to be run-balanced, which could begin to come into play in the next few weeks, considering the obvious intent to have rookie running back Quinshon Judkins operate in a clear lead role (less likely this week against the stout Detroit defensive front). What we’re left with is a clear emphasis on making life as difficult as possible on the defensive side of the ball, with an offense aiming to lean run-balanced and minimize mistakes, so as to not lose the game. This is far less exciting than we’ve seen in the past, at least from a fantasy perspective. Quarterback Joe Flacco has a modest 5.01 yards per attempt, two touchdowns to four interceptions, a low 5.7 aDOT, and a low 6.3% deep throw rate through three weeks.

Judkins missed the entirety of camp and preseason while dealing with legal issues, signed his rookie contract the day before their season opener, and still led the backfield in Week 3. It is clear the team wants him as their lead rusher. The increase in snaps came at the direct expense of fellow rookie Dylan Sampson in Week 3, who saw his snap rate fall from 43% to just 8% in the span of three games. That leaves Jerome Ford as the preferred change-of-pace option after playing 36% of the team’s offensive snaps in their win over the Packers. And for intents and purposes, Judkins looks every bit of the back of the future for the Browns. He has a solid 7.1% explosive run rate, has seen every opportunity inside the five in games he has been active, had a gaudy 0.25 missed tackles forced per attempt (seven on 28 carries), and a solid 3.43 yards after contact per attempt. His 14.2 XFP/G ranks 17th in the league, and that’s with a game where he was eased in in Week 2. The matchup is dreadful from a schematic standpoint, although the Lions have allowed 4.2 yards per carry behind 2.33 yards allowed before contact per attempt through three weeks.

No Cleveland pass-catcher has seen more than 16.3% of the team’s targets through three weeks, while no wide receiver has a TPRR greater than 0.18 (Jeudy). Sampson (0.44), Harold Fannin (0.24), Quinshon Judkins (0.19), and Jerome Ford (0.18) lead the team in TPRR in what has devolved into a short area passing offense aimed at marching the field while minimizing mistakes. It’s simply hard to carry any meaningful fantasy upside in that setup, particularly for Jeudy, Cedric Tillman, and David Njoku. So, while the Lions could theoretically pry increased aerial aggression from the Browns, that aggression is equal parts difficult to narrow to specific pass-catchers, as it is less likely considering how good the Cleveland defense has looked through three weeks. We’re thus best to leave these pass-catchers alone for the time being in DFS.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::