Jreas11 leverages research from the NFL Edge in order to replace DFS cash game play with profitable prop betting
Access my Personal Prop Betting Sheet Saturday Nights for all the +EV Prop Bets I’ve found leading up to lock, updated throughout Sunday Afternoons as late news is announced.
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The Betting Channel of the Discord has been very active over the last two weeks. There are bettors in there daily talking NFL, NBA, NHL, and College sports using numerous different tools and strategies. I continue to urge you to check into the prop market if you have not done so thus far. The ROI for many of us has been very profitable- especially when compared to DFS Cash Games in 2021. This is the equivalent of getting into DFS on the ground floor glory days, go where the profit is! Best of luck in Week 11! OWS has promotions available with numerous books for deposit bonuses- make the free money work for you!
Matt Ryan: Over 38.5 Passing Attempts
Result: Loss (21 Attempts)
The Atlanta Falcons looked downright terrible on both sides of the ball in Week 10 to drop to 4-5 on the season at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys to the tune of a 43-3 smackdown. After entering the second quarter trailing 7-3, providing us with the beginnings of a game script favorable for Matt Ryan to sling it, the Dallas Cowboys put up 29 unanswered points to go into halftime up 36-3. After starting the second half with a three and out, it was only a matter of time before Ryan would be rested with a Thursday night date with the Patriots on tap in Week 11.
Teddy Bridgewater: Under 257.5 Passing Yards
Result: Win (226 Passing Yards)
Back to Back winning Under bets on Teddy Bridgewater as he completed 22/36 passes for 226 scoreless yards as the Philadelphia Eagles ran the ball 40 times, limiting the Denver Broncos to just 55 total plays (61.9 plays per game in 2021). The Broncos played from behind for most of this game, leading to just 18 rush attempts, but they were effective when doing so as they accumulated 96 yards and a handful of first downs to keep the clock moving. The Broncos don’t change their identity much at all but in extreme situations, and we can continue to target Bridgewater props when an underdog with increased prop numbers.
J.D McKissic: Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
Result: Win (35 Receiving Yards)
Sometimes you just get a bit lucky. The Washington Football Team played in a positive game script throughout their surprising Week 10 win over the Tom Brady lead Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but McKissic mixed in just enough to cash in on all four of his targets for 35 yards. The WFT backfield caught all six of the RB targets in this one, as the Bucs continued to give up receptions freely to the position. Washington ran 71 total plays in this pace up affair, confirming volume is key to any over bet.
Week 1: +10.0 Units
Week 2: -1.1 Units
Week 3: 0.0 Units (No bets placed, family weekend)
Week 4: +4.65 Units
Week 5: +3.1 Units
Week 6: +2.4 Units
Week 7: -0.3 Units
Week 8: -5.7 Units
Week 9: +11.75 Units
Week 10: +5.8 Units
2021: +30.6 Units
Book: Bet MGM (-111)
“These teams both have below average pass defenses and above average pass rates recently.”
“Cincinnati plays slow, but their elite pass rate recently has covered that up for their game environments.”
“It has been talked about extensively over the last few weeks, but it is worth mentioning again: the Bengals ran the ball at a very high rate early in the year in an effort to protect Joe Burrow in his return from an ACL tear and over the past few weeks have become extremely pass-heavy.”
“The Bengals are a team that is playing more aggressively with each passing week and is blessed with a blossoming young star quarterback, a trio of playmaking wide receivers, and an underrated all-purpose running back.”
“The likely game flow here involves both teams turning pass-heavy either by design (Bengals) or out of necessity (Raiders).”
This is a somewhat under-the-radar matchup of two teams that have really sped up their pace of play and passing rate over the last month or so. The Cincinnati Bengals have had a week to get things back on track with a well-timed Week 10 bye after a pair of losses to the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns as they look to start the unofficial second half of the 2021 season. Over the last four weeks, the Bengals of 2021 have looked much like the Bengals of 2020, with the obvious addition of Ja’Marr Chase. With this line, it appears we can continue to be early on this passing game breaking out. The Bengals are throwing at a near 70% situation-neutral pass rate over the last month, while their average plays per game and total plays in games have risen steadily from bottom tier to middle of the pack. We can expect lots of passing in a game that features two below average pass defenses, and I expect Burrow and his elite supporting cast to be efficient. Cincinnati really needs to come out and win this one.
Book: Bet MGM (-115)
“Among qualified RBs, Gaskin ranks 12th in target share, 12th in WOPR, and 22nd in RBOPR.”
“In the last two weeks, his 41 total touches ranks sixth.”
“The Dolphins will be playing this game with a depleted pass-catching corps and a quarterback with a “banged up finger” on his throwing hand.”
“Myles Gaskin has emerged as the borderline workhorse running back on this offense in the absence of Malcolm Brown, who has already been ruled out for this weekend.”
“Over the last four weeks, his snap rates have been 63%, 58%, 72%, and 61%, leading to running back opportunity counts of 19, 16, 26, and 16.”
“Four to six targets with 14-16 rush attempts should be considered Gaskin’s standard range of outcomes as far as expected workload goes here.”
“Continuing that discussion here, the Jets can basically be beaten any which way this year, and the likeliest plan of attack for the Dolphins involves a heavy dose of their running back trio early.”
A borderline workhorse running back, in a pace-up game, featuring two teams in the top ten in total plays combined, against a run defense that has given up the most points to running backs by a mile? Sign me up. Of course, Gaskin has been horribly inefficient over the last two games where he touched the ball 41 times, but as talked about above, volume is key on overs. Give yourself the most kicks at the can, especially versus a team that has given up the most explosive plays of 20+ yards, 52 of them through nine games. The New York Jets funnel a 26% target share to running backs, leading to over nine targets and seven and a half receptions to the position, for almost 190 total yards per game. While both teams pass at a high rate, I expect Miami to be able to play in a favorable game script and try to limit Tua Tagovailoa’s exposure as he continues to recover from a left finger injury (left-handed). Combined with an injury-riddled wide receiver room, a few more than usual dump offs to Gaskin in space may be dialed up against a team allowing almost nine and a half yards per reception to RBs.
Book: DraftKings (-115), Bet MGM (-117)
“Washington is likely overrated by most people after a surprising upset of the Bucs.”
“McCaffery handled 23 opportunities (13 carries and 10 targets) in Week 10 before sitting out the 4th quarter of a blowout, signaling that he is back and will see the elite usage that we expect.”
“Washington ranks 6th in rush defense DVOA, but just lost all-pro DE Chase Young for the season and has not faced anything close to the threats out of the backfield that the Panthers possess.”
Boxscore readers will see a 23 opportunity game and think that the Carolina Panthers are still easing Christian McCaffery in, but as Mjohnson outlined in The Edge this week, those 23 opportunities came in just three quarters. Due to the Washington Football Team’s big win last week, the devastating season-ending knee injury to all-pro DE Chase Young has not grabbed as many headlines as it should as he joins fellow DE Montez Sweat on the sidelines. Narrative street was alive and well last week, with Taylor Heincke dubbing his 2020 playoff appearance against TB as the reason he was still in the league before game time and his team responding to get a win for their young QB. This week, we have Superman Cam Newton making his first start of his second Carolina tour and I expect the Panthers to come out firing for their returning signal caller. Look for CMC to once again show us there is no one like him in the NFL and for his props to increase substantially in Week 12. While Cam may cap CMC’s touchdown upside, he should open up seams for him on the ground and will keep the Carolina offense on the field more efficiently than either Sam Darnold or P.J Walker.
One of the major advantages of online sports betting is that you can carry accounts with multiple sports books in order to quickly/easily shop for the best line for the bet you want to place. Every week in Edge Bets, you’ll have access to this Player Props Tool from our friends at ActionLabs (click the orange “LABS” below), in which you’ll be able to see at a glance where the Best Lines are.
