Thursday, Dec 1st
Monday, Dec 5th
Bye Week:
Cardinals
Panthers

Early Bets. 10.21.

Why does Vegas set lines? What is their goal? Well, Vegas sets lines in an attempt to get exactly half of the action on each side of every line they post. In this case, they take the rake, guarantee a profit, and move on. So, does that mean Vegas lines are perfectly set? Furthermore, does it mean they are always perfectly set early in the week? No! Every week this season (starting Week 2), we’ll be jumping into early-week betting line inefficiencies to take advantage of before they move. This line movement can be caused by a number of factors, but the primary reasons for movements after initial line release are public sentiment and recency biases (shark money typically doesn’t come in until later in the week, when bettors have more complete information). With that, let’s jump in!

QUICK HITS PART DEUX:

Expanding on what we discussed last week with respect to hunting for lines, the same goes for props, which we haven’t explored yet in this space as prop lines don’t get released until later in the week (check out the weekly Edge Bets piece for prop action!). Different books will set player props at different values, odds, and juice, making hunting for the prop lines a highly +EV endeavor. I highly recommend opening as many as five to ten accounts on sportsbooks available in your area to be able to take advantage of this betting practice (more on this soon). Final note: to highlight this practice, I will start adding below which book the line in question is located.

If you are looking for referral codes to get those juicy sign-up bonuses (and free money that come with them), follow the link here for referral codes to various books partnered with OWS.

+EV LINES (Week 10)::

LOS ANGELES RAMS (-4.0) @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (BET MGM):

Recency bias, anyone? The Rams also just acquired some scrub named Von Miller, who missed last week while he recovers from an ankle injury, to pair with Aaron Donald along that defensive line. Public perception is likely to shift drastically if we get news of Miller’s return to health. Consider this one likeliest to move in favor of the Rams as the weekend draws nearer.

DETROIT LIONS (+9.5) @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS (BET MGM; +9.0 at DraftKings):

Same story that we’ve seen numerous times this season, with a large spread in a low game total game. We historically see the underdog cover in situations like this, a trend the public hasn’t seemed to catch onto yet. This idea gains increased traction when you consider the fact that the Steelers have generated only nine turnovers this season.

CLEVELAND BROWNS ML @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (+105; BET MGM):

The line on this game sits at Cleveland +1.5, which is all but useless outside of the very specific case of Cleveland losing by a single point. As in, you gain about 16% in additional value (higher payout) with the money line (+105) when compared to the spread (-110). Considering only 3.89% of all NFL games over the previous 20 years were decided by one point, taking the money line over the spread is worth about 12% in expected value to the bettor.

HONORABLE MENTIONS::

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS ML @ WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (-435 DraftKings; -450 on BET MGM):

Simply an honorable mention to highlight the added value of shopping for lines. Big bet special or viable parlay inclusion.

BALTIMORE RAVENS ML @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (-335 DraftKings; -350 BET MGM):

Same as above, simply an honorable mention to highlight the added value of shopping for lines. Big bet special or viable parlay inclusion.

ARIZONA CARDINALS ML VS CAROLINA PANTHERS (-425 DraftKings; -550 BET MGM):

Same as above, simply an honorable mention to highlight the added value of shopping for lines. Big bet special or viable parlay inclusion.

THREE-TEAM PARLAY ABOVE (-103 DraftKings; -117 BET MGM)

Check this out, a three-team parlay on large favorites is worth 12% (!!!) more on DraftKings when compared to Bet MGM! You can use this same methodology if hunting for prop totals to place in a parlay, drastically increasing your expected value along the way! Shop for those lines!