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Majesstik is one of the most respected Slate Breakdown artists in DFS
*Tabs are updated throughout the Weekend
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JMToWin is a high-stakes tournament champion (Thunderdome, Luxury Box, Game Changer, Wildcat) who is focusing this year on single-entry/three-entry max
This is, instead, a look at the player pool I’ll be fishing.
:: covered in-depth in the Angles Pod (it’s highly recommended that you listen to the breakdown of the roster in order to see the thinking behind it, and in order to understand what we’re talking about when we look at a “bottom-up build”
:: these are my “Tier 1” plays: the plays I feel confident leaning into across different types of builds; players who have a high ceiling and a low likelihood of price-considered failure
:: these are games, offenses, situations, or scenarios I’ll be looking to build around across my rosters
:: these are players who don’t fit into the categories above — either Upside pieces who don’t have the floor to be Blue Chips (and are not being focused on within my game-focused builds) or players who may not have a strong shot at ceiling, but are worth keeping in mind from a “role” perspective
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Full breakdown (of what this is, and what the thinking is behind these players) can (and should) be found in the Angles Pod (above).
Tua
Ekeler
Gaskin
Jeudy
Nico
Waddle
Gesicki
Albert O
Panthers
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Hilow is a game theory expert and tournament champion who focuses on mid/high-stakes single-entry/three-entry max
First off, this slate carries a ton of perceived value, particularly at the wide receiver and tight end positions. It also carries a ton of “bad chalk” plays based on the expected ownership I’m seeing. What we typically see when that is the case is a bias towards paying up at running back and quarterback, which from the look of things on Friday evening, appears to be true again based on the expected ownership values we’re seeing. Digging a little deeper, the theme for this slate is player absences – either through injury, COVID sagas, player releases, or impaired judgment; we’re going to see a lot of teams playing shorthanded this weekend.
The best way to approach a slate like this is to narrow down your player pool as much as you possibly can, weighted towards the contests you will be playing. As in, any contests with a max entry limit of 20 rosters or below, I’d be looking for extremely narrow core plays; and MME pools should feel more trim than usual. The field is simply likely to be overwhelmed by the perceived value to such a degree that -EV plays run rampant in their player pools this week, a situation we can look to exploit.
Restrictive chalk. I spoke to L-Jax’s rushing profile on the season in the Edge writeup for this game. If you haven’t read that yet, I’d recommend starting there because I won’t go into it here. With that knowledge, and with the knowledge of the fact that the only two games this season where L-Jax has scored more than just 23.08 fantasy points came in a shootout with the Chiefs early in the season and a miraculous overtime comeback win against the Colts on national television, we start to see a situation where the field might be blinded by name value here. If you’re playing L-Jax, it better be on a roster that tells a very specific story of this game developing into a shootout (correlated pairings and game stacks).
Restrictive chalk. Smash! Not much more needs to be said other than it’s fairly difficult to narrow down where the pass game production will flow for his pass-catchers, assuming Cole Beasley plays.
Restrictive chalk. Zeke checks a lot of the boxes at the running back position this week: lead back for a home favorite, solid net-adjusted line yards value, and improving pass game usage (15 targets over the previous two weeks after averaging a tick over two per game over the first five games of the season). That said, Zeke has seen between 18 and 24 running back opportunities in four of seven games, with one game at 13 (outlier against the Bucs in Week 1), one game at 24 (Week 5 blowout against the Giants), and one game at 26 (a nine-target game in a surprising shootout against the Patriots). His profile appears rock-solid on paper, just realize there is a good deal more that has to go right for Zeke to see a ceiling game than the field is giving credit for, particularly considering the extreme pace-down nature of a matchup against the Broncos (covered more below).
Restrictive chalk. This is one of the few chalk pieces this week I can get behind, as Ekeler’s profile is bonkers-good this week. Austin Ekeler ranks fourth in the NFL in running back targets at 42, and two of the three players ahead of him have played one more game (and that includes his zero-target outlier game in Week 1). The weakness of the Eagles defense is linebacker coverage, and the Chargers are slated to score almost four touchdowns (via Vegas implied team totals) in a game with a spread of only 1.5 points. All running backs on the Chargers not named Austin Ekeler have a combined nine targets this season, and Justin Jackson, who will not play this week, has seven of them. Finally, Ekeler has eight touchdowns in seven games played and the Eagles defense ranks 29th in the league in red zone touchdown rate allowed at 74.07% (as in, opponents score a touchdown on three out of every four trips to the red zone against them).
Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Man, recency bias ad nauseam with this one. Let’s see if I get this right: “the last time the Dolphins experienced this many injuries, Gaskin put up 31.9 fantasy points on the backs of 10 receptions on 10 targets and two scores through the air, so he’s gotta be a good play here!” Okay, first off, that was against a Buccaneers team that opponents can’t run on so they pass to the running back. Secondly, that came in a game where the Dolphins were large underdogs. Finally, the narrative surrounding an increase in his snap rate and usage with Malcolm Brown out is overblown. The Dolphins made Patrick Laird active last week and gave him 14% of the offensive snaps, and when combined with Salvon Ahmed’s involvement, it is likely to put a hard cap on Gaskin’s workload here. Consider this: Gaskin has a season-high of just 19 running back opportunities and Salvon Ahmed has seen nine in each of the last three games. I don’t get this one.
Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. The bottom line here is that Amari is priced a good $1,000-$1,200 too low when we consider his expected volume, matchup, and Vegas implied team total. Does that mean he’s guaranteed to hit here? Hellz no. But he’s materially underpriced. That said, the Cowboys see the highest net negative in pace of play this week (fourth fastest situation-neutral pace of play against a Broncos team that ranks 32nd in situation-neutral pace of play and 28th overall). It would take a lot going right for the Broncos to push the Cowboys into increased pass volume. Just the cold, hard facts. Thems the rules.
Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Extremely slow-paced game (like the slowest we’ve seen all season in combined pace of play with the 29th and 30th offenses in situation-neutral pace of play, and 30th and 31st offenses in the total pace of play), meaning fewer offensive plays for each team and lower expected pass volume. Higgins feels like the upgraded version of Robby Anderson; the volume is good, the underlying metrics are good, and we all just keep waiting for it to happen. This isn’t the most likely spot for it to happen.
Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Between five and nine targets in every game this season with a season-high of 18.7 fantasy points. The absence of Hingle McCringleberry (the second-year wide receiver who shall not be named) is not likely to influence the volume expectation of Renfrow, who typically plays 50-55% of the offensive snaps out of the slot. Look for Zay Jones to step into Officer Doofy’s role. Kudos to anyone who caught all three of those references.
Neither restrictive nor expansive chalk. Jarvis Landry holds a team target market share over 30% in games played without Odell Beckham, Jr., over the past three seasons. That’s a no-joke market share. But (yes, there’s a “but”), the Browns have attempted just 30 passes per game this season and it would take a very specific game environment for them to see that value increase. As in, Baker Mayfield has a season-high of 33 pass attempts, he has landed in the 28-33 pass attempt range in six of seven games, and the Browns currently sit at a 3-4 record; it’s just not how this offense is built. The likeliest scenario leads to eight to 10 low upside targets (we’ve discussed how Jarvis is being utilized from a route tree perspective in this space before) against an opponent holding their opposition to just 9.7 yards per completion (ninth-best in the league). He’s going to need extreme efficiency and a score to provide a GPP-worthy score (possible, but lots to think about).
Expansive chalk. The top on-paper point-per-dollar play on the slate. That said, Noah Fant, the player Albert O will be directly filling in for, has only one game all season above just 16.6 fantasy points (6.6 targets per game and four of eight games in single-digit fantasy points) and the tight end position is one of the highest variance positions in fantasy football. Yes, all the point-per-dollar upside, but the raw ceiling is rather thin here. Not meant to sway your thoughts in any direction, just simply laying out all the facts. As the tight end expected to garner the most ownership at the position by a large margin, there is definite merit to a fade (or underweight stance).
Expansive chalk. The Chiefs defense is expected to carry the highest ownership of any player (or defense) on the slate. Let that sink in. A $2,300 defense, the same defense that has allowed 27.5 points per game, has generated only 11 sacks and eight turnovers through eight weeks, and holds the league’s worst drive success rate allowed and second-most yards per drive, is currently projected to garner the highest ownership on the entire slate. Yea, no.
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Welcome to The Oracle! :: The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS!
Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.
A weekly staple of The Oracle :: In no more than two or three sentences, tell us what makes this slate particularly unique.
To me, it’s the running back position. I touched on this in the Angles Email this week, but the strategy of the position has changed for NFL teams, which means the strategy of the position in DFS should be evaluated/adjusted. Meanwhile, the DraftKings pricing structure has not changed. Before the Le’Veon Bell // David Johnson era, it was rare that we even saw running backs priced in the mid-$7ks, and the idea of multiple $8k running backs would have seemed bizarre. Over the years of workhorse, pass-catching backs, however, the ceiling for running back pricing was raised.
As explored in the Angles Email, running back usage is totally different than it was a few years ago, but not only has pricing NOT changed, but the way our competition views the position has not materially changed, either.
I’ll put it like this: Draftkings pricing is generally set in such a way that a player goes for roughly 4x their salary about once every four weeks. But let’s go through some running back examples:
Aaron Jones costs $7.2k, making 28.8 his 4x target. He has approached or topped that mark in two of his last 23 games. Because he has a couple 40-point scores in that stretch (the only times he’s really approached 28.8), people perceive him differently than his historical production says they should.
Joe Mixon costs $7.1k, making 28.4k his 4x target. He has approached that mark in six of his last 32 games, but he has soared past that mark only once, while frequently falling shy of 20 points.
Ezekiel Elliott costs $7k, making 28.0 his 4x target. He has gotten close to that number in three of his last 22 games, while topping that mark only once (and just barely, at that).
Nick Chubb costs $6.7k, making 26.8 his 4x target. He has finished in that range in six of his last 28 games (nearly one in four), but he has zero games of 30+ in that 28-game stretch.
This is (obviously) not to say that none of these guys can smash, or that all of them should be crossed off our lists. But especially given the running backs missing from this slate, I’ll be looking for high-priced backs who can hit 30+ more often, and I’ll be looking for lower-priced backs who can get to the 20-25 point range in which most of these expensive guys are likeliest to score when “everything comes together” for them.
For me it’s that there isn’t a single game that really stands out for stacking. The closest we have are Vikings @ Ravens (except I don’t love stacking the Ravens, it’s rare for one of their pass-catchers to post a had-to-have-it game) and Chargers @ Eagles (same with the Eagles as it is with the Ravens). The other high-total games have huge spreads. Packers @ Chiefs looked like it was going to be the primary game to target until Rodgers was out, but now Green Bay’s total has dropped precipitously.
What this means is similar to last week, in that I expect ownership to be spread out between games with people looking for a bunch of floating plays instead of building in more correlated ways, because there just aren’t a lot of super attractive correlated options. What makes this week different than last week, though, is that last week there was a clear best game to stack (Titans/Colts), but ownership ended up coming in pretty modest on it. I’m not sure we have a game like that this week.
What that makes me want to do is embrace more variance in my tournament approach by trying to incorporate more correlation in my rosters. There isn’t a lot of GOOD correlation, to be clear….but that means most of the field won’t be taking this approach, and thus it’s +EV over the long run to build this way. We know correlation is a good thing in our NFL lineups, we know (or at least think it’s likely) the field will largely be avoiding correlation this week, so even though the correlations this week are more fragile than normal I believe it’s still the right strategy to target it.
Speaking In terms of MME (per usual for me), this slate is unique because I’m not disgusted by the cheaper options and the low-owned plays. There are multiple games that are affordable to stack while still managing to include one or even two of the studs at running back. I haven’t been this excited about a slate since Week 1. I can hardly contain myself! If you include bring-backs, there are only a couple of games that don’t have a viable stacking piece that is currently projecting for under 8% ownership. You can stack organically without have to search for a “contrarian piece” as a floating play. For small field stuff, it’s probably -EV to double stack but for an MME guy who just wants to capture that ONE ceiling outcome, this is setting up nicely.
Injuries, COVID, idiot off-the-field decision making, and more have created a slate where there are about as many moving parts as I can remember there being in any single week. With that, I think the field will struggle to sort through the news that matters amongst the information overload. I also think the field will struggle to narrow down the best plays, which should lead to some rather spread out ownership and wonky roster constructions.
It’s funny, JM is nailing the adjustments that we need to make in our thinking at the running back position to adapt to how NFL teams are looking at their RBs, but I am sitting here also seeing the same logic applied to the quarterback position. Or at least a similar logic.
The NFL is more QB-friendly than ever before. I don’t have the stats on this handy but as we saw with Josh Johnson last night, almost any QB can come out and throw three touchdowns in an NFL game. As great as Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, and Lamar Jackson are, much of their real benefit to us is with their legs. I understand we’ve all adjusted for that, but if we’re considering pocket passers, I see the range of projected points scored similarly narrow to the RB position. We have more expensive guys like Mahomes, Herbert, Dak, and Burrow who can and have hit ceiling games of 30-35 points this season, but also lower priced guys like Daniel Jones, Tyrod, Tua, Matt Ryan, Derek Carr, and even Baker Mayfield who have had those 24-28 point games this season. We may be able to pay down at QB this week, hoping for the 300/3 game at greater odds than the ownership would indicate.
I actually love this week’s slate for a variety of reasons. I think that there are a lot of things that make it “harder than usual” for people to build in the ways they usually would like to (or at least it requires more creativity this week) for a lot of the reasons that my colleagues have laid out. However, these are the things that have me intrigued/excited for the slate:
This week looks similar to last week where we don’t have more than one or two games worthy of grabbing a ladle full of players out of. It looks like another skinny-stack/1-to-1 correlated-plays slate again. The one game stack environment we had was Green Bay at Kansas City, but with Jordan Love set to start, it loses a lot of luster.
Game Environments, Week 9: Everyone thinks about “high totals” when they think about game environments, but as we’ve talked about in the past: high totals typically come from teams that are already priced up for the high totals they typically produce. With that in mind, do you see any game environments this week that A) have interesting upside in spite of the story told by the total, and/or B) have a nice total and are likely to go overlooked?
Larejo is a mid-stakes tournament mastermind who specializes in outmaneuvering 150-max players with a small number of entries
October 14th, 2018. Week 6 of the NFL season. The Miami Dolphins are going into Chicago to take on the Bears, without starting QB Ryan Tannehill. Backup QB Brock Osweiler was due to make his first start of the season and his first start as a Dolphin. The Bears defense was top-five at the time and would finish the season first overall in total points allowed. What happened? The Dolphins win in overtime, 31-28, and an Osweiler (380/3) and Albert Wilson (6/155/2) stack wins the DraftKings Milly Maker. Collectively, in the $10 DK MM, these two were just barely over 1% owned.
Why do I bring this up? I remember it fairly well, but it sent me down a rabbit hole thereafter, in trying to win this tournament to go after the sub-1% owned players. And predictably, this led me to some very poor finishes. But the better takeaway from the Osweiler million is that anything can happen on any Sunday. Heck, if anyone had played Mike White last weekend (he was 0.17% owned in the MM), we could have had this exact scenario play out again. This is an important reflection, and although I’m writing this in Willing to Lose, as opposed to Missed Opportunities, I’m doing so intentionally. We’ve been talking all season at OWS about playing fearlessly. Well, sticking a backup QB into your lineup, who is making a road start against a top-five defense is certainly fearless.
We don’t need to go digging to find those completely off-the-board plays, but we should consider why and how tributary outcomes occur. The term tributary literally means a river or stream which flows into a larger stream, river, or lake. It’s the uncommon path less traveled that can still connect multiple points. When we build rosters on any slate, we need to open our minds to new ways to reach first place. It may have been an approach you’ve done before, or seen in the past, or it may be one you’ve never really considered. But, no matter how you build, consider how the lineup fits together, the ceilings on each play, and how it’s projected to stack up against the field. Your lineups don’t need to have the lowest collective ownership of any roster in the GPP, but small tweaks to your process to differentiate ever so slightly can sometimes lead to first place. And for me, this week this leads me to overstacking . . .
One of the unfair aspects of reading any DFS content writer is that the reader is not always privy to where the writer’s biases lie. When I read an article, it would behoove me to know how this writer has won in the past: what strategies did they deploy, what players did they play, late swap? Did they punt TE or defense? To come clean with you here, if you don’t know, my top ten finish in the Milly Maker came with a six-man game stack. It’s a strategy I naturally anchored on most of the rest of the 2019 season, and have since realized it’s more of the four or five-man stacks which can keep my upside intact while also giving my rosters the opportunity for first place. So, when I talk about overstacking, it should have an asterisk that I’m biased toward this strategy.
While I may have a bias to identifying game environments, pursuing this guess-less-and-correlate-more strategy has paid off for many more DFS players than myself. Last week’s big OWS winner MattyP landed in first place with a four-man game stack. We also had an OWS $100K win from Ringostar back in Week 6 with a four-man game stack. I can go on and on but I absolutely subscribe to the fewer spots you can unlock on your roster, the better. And for this week, with pricing tight and many of the top offenses off the main slate, I’ll be skipping out on looking at ownership (though I will see it indirectly in the GPP Ceiling Tool), and instead, lean into the environments I trust with game overstacks. I’ll be hovering around three primary game environments this week: Eagles/Chargers, Bengals/Browns, and Raiders/Giants. Of these three, my guess is we’ll see the highest combined ownership in Eagles/Chargers, while the Bengals/Browns should be the lowest and the Raiders/Giants somewhere in between.
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Sonic is a Milly Maker winner and large-field tournament mastermind who focuses on mass-multi-entry play
OWS Fam!
What an exciting week for MME. Plenty of cap space to make creative plays and plenty of uncertainty to consider.
My only Late Swap Clones will revolve around the Cardinals/49ers injury questions. Since there are only three late games, I will just want to be in a position to exploit late news if falls in an exploitable way. If Kyler is healthy, I want to have a few stacks in my back pocket because he’ll likely be micro-owned if he is a true game-time decision.
I’m calling my shot this week. I’m speaking it into existence. I will have a Milly sweat this week.
I hope I’m competing against one of you weirdos for first.
LFG!
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El Magico is a high-stakes tournament champion who focuses on single-entry/three-entry max // small-field play
One of Magico’s businesses is starting to require a lot more of his attention. Rather than stepping away from Magico’s Money-Makers, however, he’s adjusting the format to deliver this in a more schedule-friendly manner. (Shoutout to Magico for that one!) MMM will return in Week 10, with the updated format in place.
Xandamere is one of the most respected Showdown minds in DFS, and focuses his Main Slate play on mass-multi-entry
Week 9 and we’re almost halfway through the NFL season. I’ve already almost binked the Superdraft GPP twice and I’m determined to do it this year. Maybe this is the week!
We’re halfway through the season and we’re STILL seeing overlay every week on Superdraft. If you aren’t playing there . . . why not?
Before you read this article, you should read my NFL Superdraft Primer to get a basic understanding of the site, how it’s different from Draftkings and Fanduel, and the strategy elements that come into play. If you haven’t signed up yet, you can get $100 free with a minimum $100 deposit!! (Promo Code :: OWS)
First, all the normal NFL strategy about stacking and correlation still applies. It definitely makes sense to strongly consider pairing your QB with a receiver. Game stacks are entirely viable here. The good news is you don’t have to change your entire approach to be successful on Superdraft. All you have to do is change your mentality of player selection, since the multiplier introduces so many different strategy dynamics, as the primer goes over. With that, let’s take a look at Week 6. I’m not going to go game by game here (we have the Edge for that!), but rather, position by position, trying to spot where I think there are good opportunities to leverage attractive scoring multipliers.
Oh, we have some delicious looking quarterbacks at the top of my projections this week. Tua Tagovailoa, Jordan Love, and Taysom Hill project as my top three QBs of the week, all with multipliers of 1.5 or higher, and all in good game environments. Taysom can be played naked, while the others are very stackable. Despite lower multipliers, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts are both highly viable this week as well. Guys that don’t project quite as strongly, but have ceilings we know can be good enough for tournaments despite that, include: Daniel Jones, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and Kirk Cousins.
What a week, when the best-projected running backs are Eli Mitchell and Myles Gaskin. I’m nervous about Mitchell because he’s so game script sensitive, while Gaskin’s workload comes and goes from game to game, so while they project well, I view these two as pretty volatile. The same dynamics discussed in The Oracle about running backs are in play here, where there isn’t a lot of certainty, and the ceilings are somewhat questionable. Because of that, I’m okay targeting lower-multiplier running backs as well this week, like Kamara, Zeke, Ekeler, and CMC. In the “riskier” category, I’m also interested in Boston Scott, who was running as the clear lead back for the Eagles until the game completely got away, at a 1.7x multiplier, and in one of the higher total games of the week, there’s upside here (to be clear, a lot of downside risk as well, with Hurts and now Jordan Howard available to steal work and touchdowns).
As always, I’ll discuss stacking options later, but in this section, I’ll just highlight receivers I’m comfortable using as floating plays in any roster:
After an awful week of tight end, we now get some good ones back. Mike Gesicki, Darren Waller, Dallas Goedert, Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, and Kyle Pitts are all strong tight plays to me, in that order of preference. Dan Arnold is still sitting at a 2x multiplier despite seeing 10 targets (!!) last week. Dalton Schultz has a 1.65 multiplier, the Cowboys have one of the highest team totals of the week, and Schultz has seen six or more targets in every game but one. If Dawson Knox returns, he can be considered a risky upside piece. Tyler Conklin has a 1.85x multiplier and one of the best possible tight end matchups. After a barren week at tight end, this week we have lots of strong options, which of course means they will all fail and CJ Uzomah will score two touchdowns again.
One thing that’s tougher about Superdraft sometimes is adjusting to the format when thinking about game stacks. Multipliers can attract us to different game stacks than we would use on a salary-based site, as just looking at projections makes “weird” things like Geno Smith look viable. You can choose to trust the projections and use plays like that, but personally, I have a hard time seeing a ceiling there. I try to combine players who project well in Superdraft’s scoring format while also playing what I consider to be strong overall plays based on game environment, talent, and matchup. It’s more art than science sometimes. For example, Jordan Love projects well by median outcome, but does he really have the kind of ceiling we need in tournaments, even at a high multiplier? I’d guess no, but could be wrong. Here are some stacks I think look attractive this week:
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Myles Gaskin: Over 64.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Result: Loss (55 Total Yards)
Gaskin received 12 of 19 rushes (63%) out of the backfield with Salvon Ahmed receiving seven. Both backs averaged around three yards a carry in a tough matchup against the Buffalo Bills elite defense. Gaskin added four targets, catching three for just 19 yards in a disappointing outing that saw just 13 points scored between both teams through three quarters. Gaskin came out of the gate strong in the first half, but was underused and contained after the break in a game the Bills controlled for large portions as the game concluded in a lopsided Bills victory.
Michael Carter: Over 68.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
Result: Win (172 Total Yards)
What a coming out party for Michael Carter. Papy asked in The Edge last week if we could really project another nine targets for Carter in Week 8 after being peppered by Mike White off the bench. We got our answer, as Carter was targeted 14 times, catching nine of them for 95 yards, adding 15 carries for 77 yards on the ground with a touchdown. Carter looks great with the ball in his hands, unfortunately, check-down artist Mike White appeared to injure his throwing arm and may miss time, dampening Carter’s outlook going forward.
Nick Chubb: Under 18.5 Rushing Attempts
Result: Win (16 Rushing Attempts)
Chubb returned to the Cleveland Browns after missing two games with injury against a strong Pittsburgh Steelers defense stout against opposing running backs. Chubb looked healthy enough but was inefficient averaging just 3.8 yards per carry (YPC), while five carries and Cleveland’s lone touchdown went to secondary backs. Chubb should see his usage rise as he regains form and as his matchups improve, but should continue to surrender carries to D’Ernest Johnson as long as he continues to produce while the Browns wait for Kareem Hunt to return.
Week 1: +10.0 Units
Week 2: -1.1 Units
Week 3: 0.0 Units (No bets placed, family weekend)
Week 4: +4.65 Units
Week 5: +3.1 Units
Week 6: +2.4 Units
Week 7: -0.3 Units
Week 8: -5.7 Units
2021: +13.05 Units
Book: DraftKings (-115), Bet Rivers (-115), Bet MGM (-115)
“RBs with 70+ yds vs NYG: Gordon (118) // McKissic (93), Gibson (73) // CPatt (102), Davis (70) // Kamara (120) // Zeke (112), Pollard (103) // Henderson (107) // Williams (110).”
“Volume is likely to pile up on the ground for both sides.”
“The Raiders were adaptable under John Gruden, and that hasn’t changed with his departure. This week, they draw the Giants, who are stronger against the pass (11th DOVA) than they are against the run (21st in DVOA), which should tilt the Raiders toward testing the Giants on the ground to start this game.”
“The most likely game flow has both teams trying to lean on the run (the Raiders because it makes sense, and the Giants because it has been working recently), which will take some of the air out of this game.”
“Jacobs played 64% of the snaps in his last healthy game and saw most of the RB opportunities. He’s been given 13/15/16 carries in his last three games.”
“Jacobs is priced appropriately but feels likely to be under-owned relative to the chances that he sees extra volume in a positive game script.”
“Finally, Josh Jacobs has been circling the fringes of my builds. The Giants have allowed the fourth-most running back rushing yards, and Jacobs always has potential for a big, touchdown-driven game in the right environment.”
Josh Jacobs does not carry an injury designation this week after getting healthy during the team’s Week 8 bye. He should return to 15+ carries in a solid matchup against the New York Giants, who have given up the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs in 2021. We can expect an increase in play volume for both teams this week, with both teams playing at a top 10 situation-neutral pace of play over the last month. Both teams regularly play in high play total games, while the offenses combined for just under 58 minutes of possession time on average, leaving a little extra time on the clock in Week 9. The Raiders are a three point favorite on the road, lessening the likelihood of Jacobs getting gamescripted out of his usual range of outcomes. Both teams will be looking to run the ball in this one, which should keep the game in a back-and-forth affair in which Jacobs could flirt with his first 20 carry performance of the 2021 season, after accomplishing the feat six times in 2020.
Book: Bet Rivers (-118)
“The Giants try to play fast (7th situational neutral pace), and maintain that pace when winning, but slow down (18th in pace when leading) if they are up on the scoreboard. The Giants are rarely winning, which means they tend to play most of their games at an elevated pace.”
“The Giants WR room is a hospital, with injury questions surrounding basically everyone.”
“Booker played 93% of the snaps last week! That type of usage is rare in today’s NFL.”
“Since Quon’s injury, Booker has seen 16/12/14/15 carries to go along with 4/4/3/6 targets.”
This line is two yards lower than both DraftKings and BetMGM (21.5, similar juice), which may not seem like a lot, but it is a great opportunity to show the potential gains of price shopping between books. This bet also plays in combination with our Josh Jacobs rushing bet, where a game script beneficial to a Jacobs prospective win ties in well with our Booker receiving prop. The Las Vegas Raiders defense has filtered a healthy 23% of targets to running backs (8.4 per game), while Booker has out-targeted backfield mate Elijhaa Penny 20-4 during the 2021 season. With Booker on the field in a true workhorse role, there should be plenty of opportunity for dump-offs and screen passes to be thrown his way throughout the game. He’s caught an impressive 17/20 targets this season, going 14/17 over the past four games. As a small underdog on a team with an OL/DL mismatch, Booker could be used often to keep the Raiders front honest. Additionally, Booker appears in JM’s Player Grid, Hilow’s End Around, and Majesstik’s WorkBook. OWS approved!
Book: DraftKings (-115), Bet Rivers (-114), Bet MGM (-111)
“They have gradually picked up the pace with their passing, however, and have thrown at the 4th highest rate in the league over the last two weeks.”
“Week 9 matchup with a Browns defense that provides some clear “pass funnel” features and whose performance has been very matchup dependent so far this season.”
“The Browns defense as a unit has some talent and can be very good. However, they have been torched by some of the better offenses in the league.”
“Cleveland ranks 3rd in DVOA against the run while struggling to the tune of the #25 ranking against the pass. The way things line up, Cincinnati is going to be incentivized to continue their recent increase in pass rate in this matchup.”
“My main interest in this game lies in the Cincinnati passing game. Joe Burrow is in the midst of a terrific season and has scored 20+ fantasy points in five straight games. Assuming the pass rate stays high in what is a better matchup than most people will realize.”
“In both games, Burrow had heavy pass attempt totals, and tossed 316 yards and three touchdowns in one, and 406 yards and three touchdowns in the other (while adding a touchdown on the ground).”
I think there are a few data pieces in this game that the books and public haven’t accounted for just yet and I’d like to be early in catching the Cincinnati Bengals on the way up to their old gunslinging ways of 2020. Cincinnati is fun to watch, and if you have been watching them over the last couple of weeks, you can see a shift in philosophy as Joe Burrow has gotten more healthy/confident after last year’s injury derailment. The Bengals have decided they want Joe Burrow to impact the game at the highest level, a change from early in the season where the main focus was to keep their franchise quarterback upright and healthy. To me, the biggest signal that Joe Burrow is about to explode in the second half of the season is the Bengals willingness to blow the field away in Passing Rate Over Expectation (PROE) in the red zone (Mike Leone via Twitter), where decisions need to be made quickly in tight spaces and quarterbacks can take vicious hits as the defense is playing with their backs against the wall. They have also been steadily increasing passing metrics across the board as the season has reached the midway point. I urge you to read The Edge write-up for this game for an informative breakdown on competition splits the Browns have faced, and why this may be a better matchup than many will assume. Safe to say, I think Joe Burrow is closer to the elite QBs that have performed well against the defense than that of the lesser QBs the Browns have held in check. The only worry for Burrow here is a sluggish pace of play from both teams, which may keep his overall attempts in check, but after two monster games against the Browns last year I’m betting on efficiency in any game script the Bengals find themselves in.
One of the major advantages of online sports betting is that you can carry accounts with multiple sports books in order to quickly/easily shop for the best line for the bet you want to place. Every week in Edge Bets, you’ll have access to this Player Props Tool from our friends at ActionLabs (click the orange “LABS” below), in which you’ll be able to see at a glance where the Best Lines are.
