The basic course touched on this, but it’s worth diving deeper into here, as it is, in my opinion, the most important part of Showdown tournament success. You want to be able to look at how a game is most likely to play out, but also consider other viable alternatives. Keep in mind that “the way it’s most likely to play out” is also where the highest ownership is likely to be, so as you’re going through your builds, think about your ownership exposures accordingly. (I’ll talk more about how to actually use a lineup optimizer to build tournament lineups in the final section).
When I think about “most likely to happen,” that generally means things like:
So with that, when I say “look for other ways the game could play out,” one obvious way is for the underdog to win, but other, less obvious ways are things like:
Overall, thinking about the game before you start thinking about your roster is, in my opinion, the best way to start your approach to each Showdown slate. This is good practice on larger slates as well, but it’s much easier to implement in practice in Showdown as you only have one game to think about. By taking a step back and thinking about ways the game could play out, you’re already giving yourself an edge before you’ve even started thinking about your rosters.
[ JM’s Notes :: I love that Xandamere talked in this area about thinking through the games. We talk about this quite a bit on the site, but this is something that we rarely have an opportunity to really focus on, in terms of emphasizing its importance. This is the same way in which CubsFan333 attacks large-field tourneys on the main slate (netting him double-digit live final appearances, double-digit $100k cashes, and a Milly Maker win), and is one of the clearest ways to gain an edge in NFL DFS. Use your imagination to think through the various ways in which this game could play out. As Xandamere noted above: doing so on the Showdown slate is not only a nice shortcut to profit; it’s also a great opportunity to practice this with a less intimidating number of games than you have on the main slate. ]
Here’s an extra “Audio Lesson” from me that will help you get a deeper understanding of what this type of thinking looks like, and how you can make it work ::