Colts (

19.25) at
Steelers (

22.25)

Updated Oct 9, 2026 · 2:44 PM ET

HIBy HilowBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Hilow is a tournament champion and game-theory specialist focused on mid- and high-stakes single-entry and three-max play. In the NFL Edge he maps how each team will try to win and where the clearest DFS leverage sits.

Go deeper: The Theory of Roster Construction→

GAME OVERVIEW::

• WR Michael Pittman (foot) has been ruled out for Week 5 and reportedly is looking at a multi-game absence.
• RB Rico Dowdle (toe) returned to a limited session Wednesday and could return from a two-game absence to face the Colts.
• CBs Jalen Ramsey and Jamel Dean were absent from practice Wednesday.
• The Colts maintain a relatively clean bill of health away from the heel/ankle injury that has cost WR Alec Pierce most of the season.
• WR Keenan Allen returned to a limited practice Wednesday after missing Week 4.
• Don’t look now but Aaron Rodgers has the sixth deepest average depth of target (9.4) in his first year back with Mike McCarthy.
• These are two of the bottom five offenses in pass EPA/play.

HOW INDIANAPOLIS WILL TRY TO WIN::

After picking up their first win since Week 10 of the 2025 season in Week 3, the Colts followed it up with another dub against the Commies in London. They did so with no drives gaining more than 52 yards and just 257 total yards of offense on 13 possessions. The loss of Alec Pierce is proving to be a massive issue for a Colts team now without a way to stress opponents in the vertical, effectively forcing them into “march the field” drives that require down-to-down execution and consistency to move the football effectively. Exacerbating those tendencies is the fact that so much of their offense is confined to the interior areas of the field, requiring elite play sequencing and variability to keep opposing defenses honest. So far, head coach Shane Steichen has had one really good game in that regard (the loss to the Chiefs), one above average game (the win over the Texans), and two subpar outings (the loss to the Ravens and the win over the Commanders. Ball security also remains a massive issue as the team has now turned the ball over in the first quarter of all four games. Because of that, Steichen’s mentality of “throw to score, run to win” has not yet surfaced this season.

Jonathan Taylor saw a “low for him” 75.0 percent of the available backfield opportunities against the Commanders in London but saw the first six opportunities in the first quarter (four drives but only 13 offensive plays, on drives that went fumble, three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out). Framed differently, Taylor saw six of the first 13 total opportunities before Seth McGowan saw a touch, and still ended with 24 opportunities (20 carries and four targets). Taylor has now seen 23 or more opportunities in every game and three or four targets in every game this season, while also scoring multiple touchdowns in three of four games. He is the centerpiece of this offense and is now just seven total opportunities behind Jahmyr Gibbs for the league lead. While we are nowhere near the range where I’m looking at ownership, I get the feeling he will come in rather modestly owned considering the makeup of this slate, and there are very few backs in the league with 100/3+ upside (he is one of them). The pure rushing matchup is middling on paper against a Steelers defense ranked 17th in defensive ARBY while allowing 4.37 yards per carry (21st), but he gains considerable upside in the red zone due to the structure of a Pittsburgh defense with an underperforming nose tackle in Keeanu Benton.

We only have a one-game sample of what to expect with the current personnel heading into Week 5. Keenan Allen returned to a limited session Wednesday after missing Week 4 and appears set to return from a one-game absence. Alec Pierce aggravated his heel/ankle injury in Week 2, leaving only Week 3 with the personnel expected against the Steelers. In that game, tight end Tyler Warren led the team with a 90.2 percent route participation, followed by Josh Downs (78.0 percent), Laquon Treadwell (78.0 percent), and Allen (73.2 percent), with no other pass catcher in a route greater than the 65.9 percent rate of running back Jonathan Taylor. This is a highly concentrated offense as far as personnel diversification is concerned. Allen leads the team in targets per route run at a lofty 0.27, followed by Warren (0.23), Downs (0.22), and Taylor (0.17), with Treadwell effectively a downfield sacrificial X. The zone-heavy Steelers (fourth-ranked 81.5 percent) present a solid on-paper matchup for Warren and Taylor, the two backs that lead the team in underlying metrics through the air against zone coverages this season. Downs has been downright atrocious against zone while Allen’s metrics have been somewhat uncharacteristically modest in that split to begin the season.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

Added Oct 8, 2026 · 5:15 PM ET