Updated Oct 9, 2026 · 2:53 PM ET
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IC LITE – NFL EDGE ::
GAME SETUP ::
- Bengals WR health dominates slate-wide planning with Chase and Higgins questionable.
- Dolphins offense ranks bottom-three in EPA, success rate, and EPA per pass.
BENGALS PATH ::
- Chase Brown holds workhorse share but faces a run game struggling at 3.51 yards per carry.
- Ja’Marr Chase becomes a premier slate option if active without Higgins drawing coverage alongside him.
DOLPHINS PATH ::
- Ollie Gordon led Week 4 in snaps and opportunities, but a more even split with Wright is possible here.
- Malik Washington and Chris Bell anchor the aerial attack, though man-heavy Bengals coverage dims the outlook.
LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::
- Bengals control tempo regardless of WR availability against an overmatched Dolphins offense.
- Underpriced Bengals skill players could land expanded roles that far exceed their respective salaries.
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GAME OVERVIEW::
- WR Tee Higgins (groin/neck) went DNP-DNP through Thursday and appears to be headed for an absence against the Dolphins.
- WR Ja’Marr Chase (concussion) got back on the field in a limited capacity Thursday after missing Wednesday’s session. He’ll need to remain asymptomatic, get in a full session Friday, and be cleared by a third party independent neurologist to play in Week 5.
- WR Caleb Douglas (ankle) has yet to practice since injuring his ankle in Week 2 and appears to be trending towards a third consecutive absence.
- The statuses of Chase and Higgins are likely to have a significant impact on not only the Bengals, but the entire slate.
HOW CINCINNATI WILL TRY TO WIN::
The Bengals rank first in pass rate over expectation but 15th in situation-neutral pace of play, leaving them at 10th in PROE+. I could write more words about the static nature of this offense, but I think we all get the picture by now – 30th in play action, predictability biased toward the run when under center, modest motion rates (24th, 51.8 percent – yea, everyone is doing this now), good route layering with a design that aims to get players into one-on-one situations, and poor play sequencing. This just appears to be the end game for as long as we have the pairing of Joe Burrow, who I now regard as responsible for a larger piece of the “blame pie,” and Zac Taylor. That said, some level of uncertainty is introduced should both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins miss this contest, although the team is not really built to simply ride out an inefficient run game, regardless of who is on the field. That last part will become increasingly important as we dig further into this spot.
Chase Brown ranks seventh in the league in opportunity share at a sparkling 79.6 percent, placing him in the middle of a list of backs I regard as being true workhorses to start the season (my threshold is 70 percent, or more, of the backfield opportunities). That said, and even following some offensive line shakeup this offseason, the Bengals are struggling on the ground. They are currently ranked 23rd in adjusted run-blocking yards and 27th in yards per carry (3.51), and for all the things the Dolphins are not, one of the things they do well defensively is stop the run. They currently rank 10th in defensive ARBY while allowing 4.07 yards per carry (17th). Samaje Perine remains on hand for strict change of pace duties after accounting for every non-Brown opportunity for the Bengals this season (20.4 percent).
Rookie undrafted free agent wide receiver Dohnte Meyers shot up to a 91.4 percent route participation following the early departure of Ja’Marr Chase due to a concussion in Week 4. Taylor had some glowing comments about his burst, acceleration, and speed this week, effectively saying that he would rank him behind Ja’Marr Chase in ability to turn any touch into a touchdown. Mitchell Tinsley also saw a trickle-down increase in route participation, jumping to a 52.4 percent rate, while Chase Brown increased slightly to 60.3 percent. And that was primarily without Ja’Marr Chase, which would likely increase further should Tee Higgins also miss this week. I tentatively expect Higgins to miss, while Chase would appear to have the better chances of playing as long as he can clear protocol before Sunday. There is a scenario here where both miss, in which case I would expect Meyers and Tinsley to operate in near every-down roles, with “tight end” Mike Gesicki and Chase Brown seeing a bump to route participation as well. Ja’Marr Chase is obviously the top option in this offense, if active, and becomes one of the top options on the slate if playing without Higgins.
Sort Through The Edge
Hilow is mapping out how Chase’s status reshapes Cincinnati’s pricing against Miami’s two-high defense, and which skill players look underpriced. Sign up free.
DFS+ INTERPRETATION::
Added Oct 8, 2026 · 9:48 PM ET
The Bengals Decision
Hilow is sorting through the Bengals’ receiver situation, breaking down exactly where Dohnte Meyers fits depending on which combination of Chase and Higgins suits up.
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