Patriots (

21) at
Bills (

28)

Updated Oct 2, 2026 · 9:47 AM ET

HIBy HilowBioHide

ABOUT THE WRITER

Hilow is a tournament champion and game-theory specialist focused on mid- and high-stakes single-entry and three-max play. In the NFL Edge he maps how each team will try to win and where the clearest DFS leverage sits.

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GAME OVERVIEW::

• WR Keon Coleman did not practice Wednesday. Keep an eye on his status the rest of the week, but I currently and tentatively expect him to play against the Patriots.
• The Bills rank second in EPA/play while the Patriots rank 29th in EPA/play.
• QB Josh Allen took a helmet to the knee in the fourth quarter against the Chargers but is reportedly “fine.”
• New England ranks dead last in ARBY and has the sixth worst yards per carry through three games, although games against the Seahawks, Steelers, and Jaguars influence that data.
• The Patriots are in desperate need of a true alpha through the air – someone capable of winning in multiple areas of the field. Without one, they’re effectively left with a handful of role players.

HOW NEW ENGLAND WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Patriots are tied with the Dolphins for fewest points scored through three weeks. Before we enter full panic mode, some context. They started their season with games against the defending Super Bowl Champions on the road, a home game against a tenacious Steelers team, and a road game against the team with the best scoring margin since the middle of the 2025 season in the Jaguars. Furthermore, the Patriots were amongst the league’s healthiest teams during their improbable run to the Super Bowl a season ago and have seen injury variance swing hard in the opposite direction in 2026, having already lost 17 (!!!) players to either IR or through release with injury settlement. Through all that, the Patriots have allowed the sixth lowest explosive play rate on defense, per statrankings.com, continuing a trend under head coach Mike Vrabel of forcing opponents to march the field while eliminating splash plays. They want to slow the game down and force opponents to string together drives, while effectively forced to do the same on offense due to the absence of their primary downfield option in A.J. Brown. There are two primary issues with that setup: (1) Drake Maye has not played well through three games (34th in EPA/play), and (2) the Bills lead the league in scoring.

This backfield has been difficult to get a complete read on considering how different the situations in each game they’ve played have been. TreVeyon Henderson missed Week 1, during which Rhamondre Stevenson handled a true workhorse role. Then Henderson returned for Week 2 and saw a lead back role following an early Stevenson fumble. They were then blown out in Week 3 but it was Stevenson back in the lead role before starters were effectively pulled. It appears to be as if the Patriots want a true 1A-1B situation between Stevenson and Henderson, something that stands in stark contrast to what the general fantasy community thinks should happen. Sure, Henderson brings more per-touch upside, but he lacks the patience to get the yards that are blocked for him on a consistent basis, ranking highly in explosive rush rate but equally poor in stuff rate. Whereas Stevenson takes what is blocked for him and is more consistent on a down-to-down basis, albeit also accompanied by leading the league in fumbles the previous three-plus seasons. We saw both backs return usable fantasy weeks when the offense was humming last season but it’s been a completely different story through the offensive struggles in 2026, making both rather uninspiring options. Furthermore, the New England offensive line has been downright atrocious to begin the season, blocking to the lowest ARBY (yes, worse than the Packers, which is hard to fathom) while the backs have managed just 3.54 yards per carry, “good” for sixth worst in the league. The matchup is also far different than in years past, with the Bills holding opponents to the ninth lowest defensive ARBY and 12th lowest yards per carry (3.93). And sure, the Patriots have played three teams we expect to be stout against the run in the Seahawks, Steelers, and Jaguars, but it’s difficult to place all of the blame on their opponents.

Similar to the run game, this pass offense has looked completely lost through three games. The absence of A.J. Brown has created a void they have been unable to overcome or fill. The only true downfield threat, Kyle Williams, has been in a route on under 30 percent of the team’s pass plays because he is effectively a zero in the run game. Romeo Doubs has struggled with focus, to include improper routes and drops. Journeyman Mack Hollins has stuck in the league this long because he does all the nitty-gritty wide receiver stuff extremely well, but he’s not going to beat man coverage consistently and has little in the way of downfield chops. DeMario Douglas is effectively a slot-only option that sees the bulk of his routes confined to the short areas of the field. Hunter Henry remains a dangerous red zone threat but brings very little per-target upside in his age-32 season. It’s just become a sum-of-all-parts offense that has been Frankensteined together, badly needing an alpha for the offense to function properly. In other words, these are all role players, and the offense lacks structure without a true alpha that is capable of winning in multiple areas of the field. Doubs, Hollins, or Williams could theoretically put up a solid cost-considered game here, but there is no telling which of the three is most likely to, also accompanied by scary-low floors.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

Added Oct 1, 2026 · 1:47 PM ET