Published Sep 18, 2026 · 9:38 PM ET
Xandamere is one of the most respected and consistently dominant Showdown players in DFS, breaking down strategy thoughts and rules for every TNF, SNF, and MNF game
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IC LITE – SHOWDOWN ::
GAME SETUP ::
- Bills -4.5, 53.5 total – massive scoring environment, Bills fresh off 36-point Week 1 win
- Lions road/outdoor splits – historically worse for Goff away from home, gap has narrowed but still material
BUFFALO PIECES ::
- DJ Moore – led team at 76% snaps, 27.6% target share on limited attempts; underpriced at $7,800
- Dalton Kincaid – 5/130 on six targets, snap boost above last year’s 55% ceiling is the key variable
- James Cook – viable but Allen vultures goal-line work (14 carries inside the five last season); contrarian if ownership dips below 35-40%
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XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
After a wild, high-scoring Week 1, Week 2 opens with the Lions traveling to Buffalo for a whopping 53.5 point total game with the Bills favored by 4.5. The Bills are fresh off of putting up 36 against Houston’s elite defense, while the Lions had to go to overtime against the Saints and won when New Orleans failed to convert a two-point conversion.
BUFFALO
We’ll start with the Bills, who beat the Texans despite only having the ball for 23:43 and running just 52 offensive plays — they connected on some huge plays with Josh Allen throwing for 334 yards on just 29 pass attempts. The run game struggled to get going and James Cook only had 13 carries despite Buffalo playing from ahead for the majority of the game, which is a little concerning, but it was just one week and I don’t want to read too much into it. What is always more concerning for Cook is that Josh Allen tends to carry the ball himself when the Bills get close in — they ran two plays from the one yard line against the Texans, one was an incomplete pass and the other was Allen running the ball in for a score. Last season James Cook had 16 carries from inside the five yard line while Allen had 14. Cook is a talented back and he’s attached to an elite offense, but the lack of goal-line work really puts a damper on his floor (though his ceiling is still very robust). On a slate with a lot of high-end options, Cook is not my favorite play, but he’s certainly viable and if he gets lost in the ownership shuffle as people gravitate to other plays, he could become something of a contrarian pick. Anything under about 35-40% total ownership is too low for him. Cook played an elite 72% of the offensive snaps while Frank Gore Jr. played 19% and Ray Davis 9%, each seeing a single carry. They’re punt plays with Gore looking like he has the slightly stronger role.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
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In the passing game, new acquisition DJ Moore led the team in snaps at 76% and he converted eight targets into a 5/100/1 line. Eight targets don’t jump out at you but when you consider that Allen only attempted 29 passes last week, that’s a 27.6% target share, which is very, very healthy. The Bills have a pretty long history of rotating wide receiver usage, so I don’t want to assume this usage is completely sticky just yet…but it’s definitely encouraging for Moore, and if he keeps getting this kind of target share, he’s significantly underpriced at just $7,800 in a good matchup. Behind Moore Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman each played about half the snaps and then Josh Palmer was in a small role — in total the Bills ran two wide receivers on almost every play with a lot of heavy personnel sets, and if this continues, it’s tough to get excited about the non-Moore guys. Shakir is a solid target earner but his route tree is short and thus he has little per-target upside, and $6,400 is pretty pricey for a guy who might be a half-time kind of player. Keon Coleman was on the field about as often as Shakir but only got one target (womp womp) and is looking more and more like a bust of a draft pick, while Palmer didn’t play a lot but did catch the game-winning touchdown. Shakir is the safest of the non-Moore options but I question the upside if he doesn’t find the end zone, while Palmer and Coleman are significantly riskier options. Overall, I don’t want a ton of exposure to the non-Moore wide receivers. At tight end Dalton Kincaid saw the second-most offensive snaps of any pass catcher and caught five of six targets for 130 receiving yards. I’m in on Kincaid — I’ve always liked him as a player, the issue has always been snaps and routes as he topped out at 55% of the snaps last season. If this boost is sticky, he could be in for a big year — he was also tied for 2nd on the team in targets behind Moore. Dawson Knox has some pass-catching talent and is on the field a lot and he’s cheap, so he’s a viable value option as well. Overall, Moore and Kincaid are my favorite Bills pass catchers by quite a wide margin, and the others are all tourney viable but I don’t want a ton of exposure to any of them and I’d be careful having too many of them on one roster.
The Captain Changes Everything
Gibbs and Allen lead the captain conversation, but the mid-range pivots to Moore, LaPorta, and Kincaid hold the real tournament leverage. The grouping rules inside reshape your builds.
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