Published Oct 6, 2026 · 8:11 PM ET

Published Oct 7, 2026 · 3:33 PM ET

Published Oct 8, 2026 · 1:58 PM ET

Game Overview

• This game doesn’t have much to offer for DFS with the best play being the Texans defense.
• Cam Ward looks like he is going to join the conversation for biggest QB bust taken with the first pick.
• The Titans backfield is a messy three-way split with Singleton starting to sneak onto the field.
• Carnell Tate might end up being good, but this is a tough matchup.
• C.J. Stroud is a different player when he has Nico Collins. They have a great matchup, but if the Titans can’t fight back, the Texans might take their foot off the gas in the second half.
• David Montgomery and Woody Marks are splitting snaps behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league
• Dalton Schultz is still overpriced from his game against the Bengals

How Houston Will Try to Win

The 0-4 Texans enter Week 5 off a 34-30 shootout loss against the Cowboys. The Texans are among the most disappointing teams in the league. It’s hard to believe that they were the betting favorites to win the AFC south at the start of the season. They were expected to have an elite defense, with a good enough offense, but through the first quarter of the season nothing could be further from reality. They’ve given up 27.25 points per game and have scored over 30 points in both games that they had Nico Collins. The results haven’t been there for the Texans, but it’s worth noting that they’ve faced Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and Dak Prescott. That’s quite the slate of QBs in your first four games, and three of the Texans’ losses have come by one score. The Texans aren’t as bad as their record. DeMeco Ryan runs the show for the Texans, but he’s one of the most defense-oriented head coaches in the league. That leaves new offensive coordinator Nick Caley in charge of the offense. This was a big promotion for Caley, who spent most of career as a TE coach with Patriots, before catching on with the Rams as a TE coach/passing game coordinator the past two seasons. The Texans have been playing fast (7th in second per play). It’s easy to chalk their pace up to being 0-4, but their losses were competitive, and it’s more likely a reflection of how Caley wants to attack than game flow. The Texans O-line has been abysmal (30th ranked by PFF). The Texans have gotten solid pass protection from their tackles, but they’ve been terrible on the interior, and no one can run block. The Texans want to be balanced (15th in PROE), but they’ve been forced to throw (7th in pass rate). There isn’t a huge gap in the Texans PROE for a 0-4 team. They are being slightly influenced by game flow, but they probably want to be a pass leaning team.

The Titans’ defense has been lit up through the air (30th in DVOA) and below average on the ground (19th in DVOA). It’s no secret that the Titans’ defense is bad (27th in total DVOA), but they’ve been awful against the pass and only regularly bad against the run. There isn’t any history to go on with Caley, but given his relatively young age (43), and history of being involved with passing games, it’s fair to guess that he’s probably a pass first coach. If it wasn’t for Ryan’s conservative nature, the Texans might be one of the most aggressive teams in the league on offense. The Titans have faced Geno Smith, Jalen Hurts, Jameis Winston, and a half of Lamar Jackson. That’s not a group of killers, with Jackson being the only guy one who is a strong passer. Jackson was 15/20 for 222 yards and two touchdowns at half. The Titans have one of the most attackable secondaries in the league, and its malpractice to play them without a pass first game plan. Caley doesn’t have much history, but it’s likely he wants to throw, and this matchup is perfect for passing. Expect the Texans to attack through the air, but if they take the lead, Ryan’s conservative nature will likely cause them to fall on the ball.

DFS Interpretation

Added Oct 8, 2026 · 1:58 PM ET

Updated Oct 9, 2026 · 2:53 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW::

• WR Tee Higgins (groin/neck) went DNP-DNP through Thursday and appears to be headed for an absence against the Dolphins.
• WR Ja’Marr Chase (concussion) got back on the field in a limited capacity Thursday after missing Wednesday’s session. He’ll need to remain asymptomatic, get in a full session Friday, and be cleared by a third party independent neurologist to play in Week 5.
• WR Caleb Douglas (ankle) has yet to practice since injuring his ankle in Week 2 and appears to be trending towards a third consecutive absence.
• The statuses of Chase and Higgins are likely to have a significant impact on not only the Bengals, but the entire slate.

HOW CINCINNATI WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Bengals rank first in pass rate over expectation but 15th in situation-neutral pace of play, leaving them at 10th in PROE+. I could write more words about the static nature of this offense, but I think we all get the picture by now – 30th in play action, predictability biased toward the run when under center, modest motion rates (24th, 51.8 percent – yea, everyone is doing this now), good route layering with a design that aims to get players into one-on-one situations, and poor play sequencing. This just appears to be the end game for as long as we have the pairing of Joe Burrow, who I now regard as responsible for a larger piece of the “blame pie,” and Zac Taylor. That said, some level of uncertainty is introduced should both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins miss this contest, although the team is not really built to simply ride out an inefficient run game, regardless of who is on the field. That last part will become increasingly important as we dig further into this spot.

Chase Brown ranks seventh in the league in opportunity share at a sparkling 79.6 percent, placing him in the middle of a list of backs I regard as being true workhorses to start the season (my threshold is 70 percent, or more, of the backfield opportunities). That said, and even following some offensive line shakeup this offseason, the Bengals are struggling on the ground. They are currently ranked 23rd in adjusted run-blocking yards and 27th in yards per carry (3.51), and for all the things the Dolphins are not, one of the things they do well defensively is stop the run. They currently rank 10th in defensive ARBY while allowing 4.07 yards per carry (17th). Samaje Perine remains on hand for strict change of pace duties after accounting for every non-Brown opportunity for the Bengals this season (20.4 percent).

Rookie undrafted free agent wide receiver Dohnte Meyers shot up to a 91.4 percent route participation following the early departure of Ja’Marr Chase due to a concussion in Week 4. Taylor had some glowing comments about his burst, acceleration, and speed this week, effectively saying that he would rank him behind Ja’Marr Chase in ability to turn any touch into a touchdown. Mitchell Tinsley also saw a trickle-down increase in route participation, jumping to a 52.4 percent rate, while Chase Brown increased slightly to 60.3 percent. And that was primarily without Ja’Marr Chase, which would likely increase further should Tee Higgins also miss this week. I tentatively expect Higgins to miss, while Chase would appear to have the better chances of playing as long as he can clear protocol before Sunday. There is a scenario here where both miss, in which case I would expect Meyers and Tinsley to operate in near every-down roles, with “tight end” Mike Gesicki and Chase Brown seeing a bump to route participation as well. Ja’Marr Chase is obviously the top option in this offense, if active, and becomes one of the top options on the slate if playing without Higgins.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

Added Oct 8, 2026 · 9:48 PM ET

Updated Oct 9, 2026 · 2:33 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW::

• CBs Carlton Davis III (neck) and Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) did not practice Wednesday for the Patriots. WR Mack Hollins (calf) was unable to finish Week 4 and also did not practice Wednesday. RB Rhamondre Stevenson (knee) was limited.
• WR Jalen Nailor (concussion) did not practice Wednesday for the Raiders.
• Both teams are near the middle of the pack in explosive play rate and explosive play rate allowed. Both teams should largely be forced to march the field and string together drives to achieve offensive success.
• Keep an eye on the expected status of Stevenson as an absence would leave the bulk of the backfield to Henderson in a run-funnel matchup.
• Both offensive lines could be an issue in this one – these are the 31st and 30th-ranked run-blocking offensive lines through four weeks.

HOW LAS VEGAS WILL TRY TO WIN::

The chess match between Klint Kubiak and Zak Kuhr is going to be really fun from a fan’s perspective. Kubiak’s West Coast, Shanahan-inspired offense aims to generate space and explosive plays, leveraging heavy rates of play action and pre-snap motion to help diagnose coverages and expose places to create space for his primary skill position cadre. Carlton Davis III missed Week 2 and Christian Gonzalez missed Week 4. In those two games, the Patriots continued to utilize elevated rates of man coverage (42.0 percent, versus a season average of 36.4 percent) with elevated blitz rates (seventh-ranked 39.3 percent). I’m not sure what we see if both Davis and Gonzalez miss Week 5, which appears more and more likely with each passing day. Furthermore, part of what carried the Patriots to the Super Bowl a season ago was the variability in the middle of the field on that side of the ball, with athletic linebackers and safeties able to roll coverages and alignments to disguise the look. They used that to greatly influence an opposing team’s top option, but they needed all pieces working together fluidly to do so. In this spot, that is most likely to be rolled coverage and varied alignments designed to limit Brock Bowers, forcing the secondary options from the Raiders to beat them. Kubiak knows this as well, with the biggest unknown being the status of the Patriots’ top two corners – which brings us back to the chess match we’re likely to see on this side of the ball. This is going to be a game of trying to outmaneuver the opponent, and these are two of the top young minds in the league in that setup.

Ashton Jeanty ranked ninth in opportunity share (76.1 percent), sixth in rush attempts (78), and seventh in total yards (429) but has struggled to a modest 3.4 yards per carry through four weeks. The Raiders have blocked to the third lowest ARBY (one spot above the Patriots) while the Patriots have yielded the fourth highest defensive ARBY and 4.48 yards per carry to opposing backfields, setting up a relative weakness-on-weakness matchup on the ground for Jeanty and the Raiders. Mike Washington continues to operate as the clear change of pace option and has seen his role grow slightly with each passing week, which makes sense considering he has three explosive runs on just 24 carries to the five explosive runs on 78 carries of Jeanty. He remains unlikely to completely eat into Jeanty’s workload, but his presence at least has kept Jeanty from earning a true workhorse role in recent games (season-low 62.1 percent opportunity share in Week 4).

Tight end Brock Bowers is a matchup nightmare anywhere on the field, and Kubiak is using him as such. Bowers has aligned wide at a ridiculous-for-a-tight-end 42.2 percent rate, in the slot at a 41.1 percent rate, and inline at a lowly 9.2 percent rate, effectively leaving Michael Mayer as the true tight end (67.1 percent inline rate). In the two full games in which Bowers was healthy this year, the route participation rates went as follows: Bowers – 91.0 percent, Mayer – 76.4 percent, Tre Tucker – 75.3 percent, Jeanty – 59.6 percent, and Cody White – 40.4 percent (Jalen Nailor left after only 19 snaps in Week 4 but had been around 60 percent the previous three games). Nailor is looking questionable and Jack Bech is on injured reserve, placing additional emphasis on the top three options through the air, which are Bowers, Mayer, and Tucker. Considering the matchup against a Patriots team highly likely to roll additional emphasis in Bowers’ direction, regardless of where he lines up on the field, there could be room for additional volume to flow in Mayer’s and Tucker’s direction. Neither are overly stimulating from a projections standpoint, but both carry legitimate cost-considered ceilings, particularly if both Davis and Gonzalez miss. I expect the general structure of the offense to continue showing league-leading 12-personnel rates, with the understanding that Bowers really isn’t playing a tight end’s role.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

Added Oct 8, 2026 · 2:38 PM ET

Updated Oct 9, 2026 · 2:22 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW::

• The Vikings are 4-0. The Vikings have two games in which they were held without a touchdown. The Vikings rank 27th in EPA. The Vikings managed one offensive touchdown, total, against the Bears, Buccaneers, and Dolphins. Something is going to give eventually.
• WR Jordan Addison (hamstring) missed practice on Wednesday while WR Justin Jefferson (ankle) returned to a limited session after missing Week 4.
• TE Noah Fant (abdomen) returned to a limited session after missing Week 4 while RB Alvin Kamara (back) was a 'DNP.'
• The Saints have now trailed by an average of 7.4 points per game at the half in their 21 games under head coach Kellen Moore, which jumps to an average of 8.75 points per game through the four games to start 2026.

HOW MINNESOTA WILL TRY TO WIN::

Minnesota is a team still searching for their identity, which is an interesting conclusion to draw considering they are one of only three remaining undefeated teams. The offense continues to look completely lost, largely unable to demonstrate the down-to-down consistency required in a Kevin O'Connell system. Kyler Murray appears to be yet another poor schematic fit for an offense based on timing and rhythm, requiring anticipatory throws that either lead a receiver open or are delivered before the receiver's break. Furthermore, Murray has historically been inaccurate and late on the primary source of explosive plays in a KOC offense – the deep crosser. And yet, this team is 4-0. But is that in any way indicative of further success or is it simply a product of their schedule through four weeks? I would heavily argue in favor of the latter considering they have played a broken Packers team, the Bears in driving wind and rain, a broken Buccaneers team, and inarguably the least talented roster in the league in the Dolphins. Currently listed as two-point road favorites against the Saints, the Vikings are implied to have a 55 percent chance to head to their Week 6 bye a perfect 5-0. That said, they likely require a continuation of "outmaneuvering" opponents as we enter the second quarter of the regular season to continue stringing together wins, which points us straight to their defense. A long time staple amongst the most aggressive, dynamic, and skilled defensive play callers in the league, Brian Flores has the talent, scheme, and in-game feel to continue generating disruption and flipping games on their head, which is the clearest path toward victory for this iteration of the Vikings.

Jordan Mason underwent surgery on his thumb and has been on injured reserve since Week 2, meaning he will miss Week 5. In his absence during the most recent three games, Aaron Jones has handled an 86 percent backfield opportunity share, which would rank fourth in the league behind only Jahmyr Gibbs, James Cook, and Jonathan Taylor. He has seen 74 total opportunities in that three-game sample. And yet, he hasn't scored more than 16.8 DK points. And those 16.8 DK points required 28 (!!!) opportunities against the Dolphins in Week 4. The expected workload gives him a rock-solid floor, but poor efficiency is accompanied by a shaky ceiling, particularly considering an elevated $6,500 price tag. Exacerbating those shortcomings are low touchdown equity for an offense still working to find their groove and an offensive line blocking to a 19th-ranked ARBY, per statrankings.com. The good news is that the Saints have allowed the second highest yards per carry mark (5.30), sixth highest defensive ARBY, and most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (35.3 DK points per game – a five-rushing-touchdown game against the Falcons will do that).

Regarding Jordan Addison's hamstring injury, O'Connell said Wednesday, "Consider it minor, if it's anything at all," adding that they expect him to practice in a limited capacity Thursday. It sounds as if the team will have its top two wide receivers on the field together against the Saints, which effectively leaves us with a split bearing little value considering Kyler Murray, Jefferson, and Addison have played all of 18 snaps together this season. Murray left after 11 snaps in Week 1 and then missed Week 2 while Jefferson left after seven snaps in Week 3 and then missed Week 4. The truth of the matter is we've hardly seen anything regarding how this offense would like to operate in 2026. What we know is that Jefferson is supremely talented and in a route on nearly every dropback, when healthy, that Addison is a valuable deep threat that can take the lid off opposing defenses, tight end T.J. Hockenson is largely confined to short-area work in his age-29 season, Jauan Jennings has seen four targets in three healthy games, and Tai Felton is on hand to soak up situational/package snaps. The Saints have deployed single-high alignments at the second highest rate in the league and have allowed the most fantasy points per route defended from that alignment. Digging a bit further, their defense has functioned with the highest average cushion, per statrankings.com, meaning the highest average distance between the defender and the pass catcher at the snap. If there were ever a matchup through which Jefferson were set up to absolutely eat, it would be against a soft-Cover-3-heavy defense that gives him room to operate. That is what he has this week. Since 2024, Jefferson ranks third in first-read target rate against Cover-3 (41.03 percent), sixth in TPRR (30.71 percent), 15th in YPRR (2.89), and 24th in FP/RR in that split.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

Added Oct 8, 2026 · 10:52 AM ET

Updated Oct 9, 2026 · 3:46 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW::

• RB Breece Hall (quad) and WR Adonai Mitchell (finger) have yet to practice through Thursday and appear headed for another absence.
• TE Mason Taylor (thumb) practiced in full in both practices and should return from a two-game absence.
• WR Tim Patrick was designated to return from IR and practiced in full both days this week. He could make his return to the active game-day roster against the Browns.
• Browns G Teven Jenkins remained sidelined through Thursday but C Elgton Jenkins got in two full practices as he returns from a concussion.

HOW CLEVELAND WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Browns are more pass-balanced in the new season than they have been in recent years, ranked 10th in pass rate over expectation and fourth in PROE+, averaging just over 29 pass attempts per game despite ranking 27th in play volume at 57.3 plays per game. The offensive-minded Todd Monken inherited a true cow pie team that has completely outperformed preseason expectations, currently tied with the Ravens atop the AFC North at a surprising 3-1 record. That said, it hasn’t been all roses and rainbows. The Browns are currently the only team with a winning record and negative point differential, having been blown out 34-10 by the Jaguars to open the season while winning three games by no more than four points. Still, Monken has accomplished that with the most enigmatic quarterback in the league and one of the youngest skill position corps in the league.

Quinshon Judkins ranks eighth in opportunity share at a borderline elite 78.1 percent clip, averaging 18.75 opportunities per game. The low play volume from the Browns is most evident in the disparity between Judkins’ eighth-ranked mark in opportunity share and 14th-ranked mark in opportunities per game. He has topped out at 18 carries through four weeks but has hit 20 opportunities or more in consecutive games entering Week 5. And then there’s the efficiency. Judkins is averaging just 3.0 yards per carry and has scored just one touchdown, behind an offensive line ranked 22nd in ARBY. The matchup is middling on paper against a Jets team ranked 23rd in defensive ARBY while allowing 4.46 yards per carry (22nd). Raheim Sanders is the only other back to see more than five opportunities in a strict change of pace role.

Rookie KC Concepcion has grown into a slot-plus role, one that had him in a route on every dropback a week ago. His 58.9 percent slot rate leads the team but his growing role has meant he is more than the simple slot receiver he started his rookie season as. Concepcion is joined by fellow rookie Denzel Boston and second-year tight end Harold Fannin as the only pass catchers in near every-down roles, with Jerry Jeudy (63.8 percent route rate) the only other pass catcher in a route on greater than 40 percent of the team’s dropbacks. Jeudy made public remarks expressing his concerns with his current role, sparking potential trade speculation ahead of Week 5. Boston’s lofty 16.7 average depth of target and big play abilities had left him with the highest weekly ceiling until Concepcion’s role growth, the latter of whom has tallied 17 targets in the previous two games. Volume appears likely to remain difficult to come by for all parties considering the more reserved nature of the Cleveland offense, leaving all three primarily as touchdown-or-bust options.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

Added Oct 9, 2026 · 12:25 AM ET

Updated Oct 9, 2026 · 2:44 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW::

• WR Michael Pittman (foot) has been ruled out for Week 5 and reportedly is looking at a multi-game absence.
• RB Rico Dowdle (toe) returned to a limited session Wednesday and could return from a two-game absence to face the Colts.
• CBs Jalen Ramsey and Jamel Dean were absent from practice Wednesday.
• The Colts maintain a relatively clean bill of health away from the heel/ankle injury that has cost WR Alec Pierce most of the season.
• WR Keenan Allen returned to a limited practice Wednesday after missing Week 4.
• Don’t look now but Aaron Rodgers has the sixth deepest average depth of target (9.4) in his first year back with Mike McCarthy.
• These are two of the bottom five offenses in pass EPA/play.

HOW INDIANAPOLIS WILL TRY TO WIN::

After picking up their first win since Week 10 of the 2025 season in Week 3, the Colts followed it up with another dub against the Commies in London. They did so with no drives gaining more than 52 yards and just 257 total yards of offense on 13 possessions. The loss of Alec Pierce is proving to be a massive issue for a Colts team now without a way to stress opponents in the vertical, effectively forcing them into “march the field” drives that require down-to-down execution and consistency to move the football effectively. Exacerbating those tendencies is the fact that so much of their offense is confined to the interior areas of the field, requiring elite play sequencing and variability to keep opposing defenses honest. So far, head coach Shane Steichen has had one really good game in that regard (the loss to the Chiefs), one above average game (the win over the Texans), and two subpar outings (the loss to the Ravens and the win over the Commanders. Ball security also remains a massive issue as the team has now turned the ball over in the first quarter of all four games. Because of that, Steichen’s mentality of “throw to score, run to win” has not yet surfaced this season.

Jonathan Taylor saw a “low for him” 75.0 percent of the available backfield opportunities against the Commanders in London but saw the first six opportunities in the first quarter (four drives but only 13 offensive plays, on drives that went fumble, three-and-out, three-and-out, three-and-out). Framed differently, Taylor saw six of the first 13 total opportunities before Seth McGowan saw a touch, and still ended with 24 opportunities (20 carries and four targets). Taylor has now seen 23 or more opportunities in every game and three or four targets in every game this season, while also scoring multiple touchdowns in three of four games. He is the centerpiece of this offense and is now just seven total opportunities behind Jahmyr Gibbs for the league lead. While we are nowhere near the range where I’m looking at ownership, I get the feeling he will come in rather modestly owned considering the makeup of this slate, and there are very few backs in the league with 100/3+ upside (he is one of them). The pure rushing matchup is middling on paper against a Steelers defense ranked 17th in defensive ARBY while allowing 4.37 yards per carry (21st), but he gains considerable upside in the red zone due to the structure of a Pittsburgh defense with an underperforming nose tackle in Keeanu Benton.

We only have a one-game sample of what to expect with the current personnel heading into Week 5. Keenan Allen returned to a limited session Wednesday after missing Week 4 and appears set to return from a one-game absence. Alec Pierce aggravated his heel/ankle injury in Week 2, leaving only Week 3 with the personnel expected against the Steelers. In that game, tight end Tyler Warren led the team with a 90.2 percent route participation, followed by Josh Downs (78.0 percent), Laquon Treadwell (78.0 percent), and Allen (73.2 percent), with no other pass catcher in a route greater than the 65.9 percent rate of running back Jonathan Taylor. This is a highly concentrated offense as far as personnel diversification is concerned. Allen leads the team in targets per route run at a lofty 0.27, followed by Warren (0.23), Downs (0.22), and Taylor (0.17), with Treadwell effectively a downfield sacrificial X. The zone-heavy Steelers (fourth-ranked 81.5 percent) present a solid on-paper matchup for Warren and Taylor, the two backs that lead the team in underlying metrics through the air against zone coverages this season. Downs has been downright atrocious against zone while Allen’s metrics have been somewhat uncharacteristically modest in that split to begin the season.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION::

Added Oct 8, 2026 · 5:15 PM ET

Published Oct 8, 2026 · 5:49 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• Washington has yet to play a snap from a “positive” game script this season.
• The Giants lead the NFC East with a 3-1 record despite dealing with injuries and setbacks over the season’s first month.
• The Commanders defense has been a bit of a “pass funnel” unit so far this season, performing above average against the run while being susceptible to big plays through the air.
• Washington expects quarterback Jayden Daniels to return to the field after a 2.5 game absence.
• Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin is expected to miss this game with a hamstring injury.

HOW NEW YORK WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Giants lead the NFC East through four weeks despite having many obstacles to overcome along the way. Their last two victories have been less impressive, coming against the hapless Titans in poor weather and at home against the Cardinals. Nevertheless, wins are wins. The Giants get another solid matchup in Week 5 as they travel down the coast to face the Commanders, who are 1-3 and coming back from a trip to Europe.

New York wants to run the football first and foremost with coach John Harbaugh in charge and having lost Jaxson Dart for the season. However, they started to loosen the reins on Jameis Winston a bit in Week 4 as he had his best passing game to date. Winston looked awful in relief of Dart against the Rams, then had to play in awful weather against the Titans. The Week 4 performance for Winston should give some confidence for the Giants to let him throw the ball more going forward. When he does throw the ball, look for tight end Isaiah Likely to be his primary target in this matchup. The Commanders gave up big games to tight ends Dallas Goedert, Jake Ferguson, and AJ Barner to start the season. Likely ranks 2nd among ALL players in Target Share through four weeks, at 31.3%. Make no mistake about it, Likely is an integral part of this offense and the team is not afraid to use him in all areas of the field. The dynamics of Week 2 (Dart injury) and Week 3 (weather) made a lot of people forget about Likely’s dominant Week 1 performance, but he racked up 12 targets in Week 4 – something that happened somewhat quietly because it resulted in only a modest box score. After Likely, wide receiver Malik Nabers will also be very involved and is coming off his best game of the season. The Commanders defense is much more susceptible to the pass than the run, so we can expect another seven to 10 high value targets for Nabers this week.

New York’s preference would be to be run-heavy, but Washington is much stronger against the run than the pass and the Giants have a couple of strong receiving options in Nabers and Likely to turn to. Expect the nature of the matchup and return of Daniels to push the Giants to a balanced play calling approach, rather than a conservative one. Cam Skattebo will lead the Giants backfield again in this matchup, with a couple of other backs mixing in as well.

DFS+ Interpretations::

Added Oct 8, 2026 · 5:49 PM ET

Published Oct 8, 2026 · 4:15 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• Chicago has a 3-1 record and has had a different starting quarterback in all three victories this season. Tyson Bagent is expected to get the nod again this week.
• Chicago’s defense has performed well the last three weeks, but has been facing struggling offenses that lack explosiveness.
• Green Bay’s inability to run the football drastically affects how they are forced to call games on both sides of the ball.
• The Packers lost star linebacker Edgerrin Cooper for the season in last week’s win over the Bucs, further exposing an already struggling defense.
• Chicago’s balanced offense features a one-two punch at running back and their passing game has started to feature their three primary pass catchers.

HOW CHICAGO WILL TRY TO WIN::

The Bears offense is built around their running game, with everything else falling into place from there. Last week against the Jets they ran the ball 50 times while running nearly 90 offensive plays. For the season, Chicago ranks 28th in pass rate during a neutral script with only 48% of their plays being passes when the game is close. The offense then builds their passing game outwards from there, with the third highest play action rate in the league behind only the Chiefs and Seahawks. When you look at the Packers season long run defense statistics, they look solid. However, with a deeper dive we can see that they have benefitted from facing inefficient running games from Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and the Jets. The one time they faced a very strong rushing offense was the Falcons, who absolutely tore them apart on national TV. Now the Bears, one of the league’s top rushing offenses, get to square up with the Packers after they lost arguably their top defensive player Edgerrin Cooper for the season.

Tyson Bagent is someone that Bears head coach Ben Johnson believes in. The team refused to trade him to interested teams in the offseason and gave him a very good extension last year by backup QB standards. They also elected to start Bagent in Week 4 after Case Keenum looked terrific in a Week 3 win over the Eagles. The “easy” decision from a PR standpoint would have been to roll with Keenum as the “hot hand.” Handing the keys to Bagent says a lot about what the team thinks of him. He rewarded them with a solid and efficient outing in the Week 4 win over the Jets. Bagent completed over 70% of his passes and averaged 7.9 yards per attempt.

After a slow start to the season for their primary weapons, Bagent seemed to begin to unlock the trio of Rome Odunze, Luther Burden, and Colston Loveland. Each of them had their best game of the season in Week 4 with Bagent under center, while the trio combined for a 65% target share. Expect more of the same against an unimposing Packers secondary. The Packers rank fifth in blitz rate but 22nd in pressure rate this season as they have tried desperately to generate pressure to no avail. The Bears running game should open up all sorts of chunk play opportunities through the air with play action that takes advantage of Green Bay being forced to dedicate resources to try to stop the run. We should expect to see the most explosive Bears passing game we have seen since Week 1.

DFS+ Interpretations::

Added Oct 8, 2026 · 4:15 PM ET

Published Oct 9, 2026 · 3:12 AM ET

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• Denver is battling injuries on both sides of the ball and has a tough matchup with the Seahawks on Thursday night next week.
• Head coach Sean Payton will take over play calling duties from offensive coordinator Davis Webb starting this week.
• The Chargers are likely to be without star wide receiver Ladd McConkey due to a foot injury, while also dealing with some major losses on the offensive line.
• The backfield for the Chargers has devolved into a three-headed monster with Omarion Hampton, Keaton Mitchell, and Kimani Vidal all playing roughly a third of the snaps in Week 4.

HOW DENVER WILL TRY TO WIN::

Denver’s offense has been underwhelming this season and that has prompted a change at the top, with head coach Sean Payton reassuming play calling duties from offensive coordinator Davis Webb. This offseason the Broncos appeared to be set to lose Webb to other opportunities, including head coaching jobs, before they convinced him to return and let him take over the offense. The results have been poor thus far and Payton is no longer waiting around, deciding to take things into his own hands. This presents a small change in predictability for Denver’s offense as a new variable is introduced.

While Webb’s play calling hasn’t been great, he is somewhat being scapegoated for the poor play of third year QB Bo Nix. Watching the games you can see a lot of times where receivers are open and the scheme is doing what is intended, but Nix doesn’t pull the trigger. He appears to be constantly second guessing himself and lacking the confidence and conviction needed to play quarterback in the NFL at a high level. Denver runs a relatively balanced offense, with J.K. Dobbins operating as the primary early down back who handles almost all of the traditional carries. The Chargers defense is actually playing fairly well, especially considering the poor spots their offense keeps putting them in. Denver’s lack of explosiveness is likely to be the first thing Payton tries to fix – doing so might be another thing unless Nix will adjust.

The Broncos passing attack will be without developing second year WR Pat Bryant, who sustained an ankle injury last week. Jaylen Waddle has played well when given the chance, but the reluctance of Nix to pull the trigger has limited his upside. The absence of Bryant should result in Troy Franklin playing an increased role, while veteran Courtland Sutton has been non-existent the first month of the season. Running back RJ Harvey was peppered with targets last week as the checkdown king went to work. The Chargers are an average unit in basically everything – not elite, but definitely not a doormat. Their tendencies are also middle of the pack in terms of pressure rate, blitz rate, and man vs. zone coverage tendencies. They are, however, 28th in the NFL in missed tackle rate which has been their biggest issue thus far. Expect the Broncos to feature Waddle and the running backs, with others mixed in sporadically. Denver is no stranger to defensive battles and the Chargers offense hasn’t shown much so far this season, but the Broncos defensive injuries create a situation where they could have to take a more aggressive approach than usual.

DFS+ Interpretations::

Added Oct 9, 2026 · 3:12 AM ET

Published Oct 8, 2026 · 5:51 PM ET

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• Detroit’s defense has been unable to stop anyone this season, particularly through the air. The Lions are last in the league in fantasy points allowed to QBs, WRs, and TEs.
• Arizona’s defense has allowed their last three opponents to score 30+ points.
• We have two pressure sensitive quarterbacks facing two defenses that are struggling to create pressure.
• Through four weeks, every team’s final score in a Lions game has been 24 or more points with six of eight scoring 30+.
• Only two teams have scored less than 24 points in a game in Cardinals games this season: the Chargers (awful) and the Cardinals against Seattle’s elite defense.

HOW DETROIT WILL TRY TO WIN::

Trust is hard to earn and easy to lose. At this point in the season, the Lions have to have absolutely zero trust in their defense. This week they are playing a dome game where they face a capable and competent offense that they are unlikely to neutralize given their current state. The Lions also have a Week 6 bye on the horizon, where changes could easily be made. It is easy for us to suggest adjustments when we watch the games, but there are a lot of dynamics that go into changing concepts and approaches mid-season that are tough to do on the fly. The bye week will provide that, but for now the Lions are just going to have to send it.

Detroit has played four games, with eight team scores so far (four for the Lions and four for Lions opponents. All eight team scores have been 24 or more points so far, six of the eight being 30 points or higher. Meanwhile, only two teams have scored less than 24 points in a game in Cardinals games this season. The first instance was the Chargers offense in Week 1 scoring only 14 points. We now know that the Chargers are inept offensively. The other was the Cardinals against Seattle’s elite defense in Week 2. Basically we know that this game is going to have points racking up from both teams. The Lions know that as well. And we know that they know.

Detroit’s offense will revolve primarily around all-world running back Jahmyr Gibbs and receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. Expect Gibbs to have more success on the ground this week than he did against the Panthers rejuvenated defense in Week 4. Also expect the Lions to move ARSB all over the field and use him at all levels in a similar fashion to what the Seahawks did in Week 2 en route to a massive game for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The X-Factor’s here for the Lions are the rest of their playmakers. Jameson Williams and Isaac TeSlaa provide very real downfield threats. TeSlaa is coming off his career best game, while Williams has yet to score a touchdown this season. I would expect one of them to post a big game in this spot as the Cardinals put a lot of focus on ARSB and Gibbs, as the Cardinals just got lit up downfield by Jameis Winston and Malik Nabers. Tight end Sam LaPorta is having a nice season as well and appears recovered from last season’s back injury. He provides a complementary intermediate threat to what ARSB does. LaPorta and Williams have played at least 80% of the snaps in every game, while TeSlaa has played 68% or more of the snaps in every game but one and just played 82% against the Panthers in Week 4. The Lions will aggressively hunt points from the outset of this game and may actually be extra aggressive early after playing from behind in their two losses and playing from ahead in their two wins.

DFS+ Interpretations::

Added Oct 8, 2026 · 5:51 PM ET

Published Oct 9, 2026 · 1:45 AM ET

GAME OVERVIEW ::

• Control of the NFC West lies in the balance for this early season matchup between two contenders.
• Emanuel Wilson seemed to seize control of the Seahawks backfield with his impressive Week 4 performance.
• This game features a matchup of the league’s most efficient offense (San Francisco) on a per-play basis and the league’s most efficient defense (Seattle).
• San Francisco will be without the services of fullback Kyle Juszczyk, whose versatility and skillset is much more important than the average fan will realize.

HOW SAN FRANCISCO WILL TRY TO WIN::

The 49ers have become a more pass-centric offense this season with running back Christian McCaffrey entering the twilight of his career and Brock Purdy entering his prime. San Francisco has operated as an offensive scheme that focuses on their running game as the backbone and builds everything out from there for basically the entire tenure of head coach Kyle Shanahan. This season, however, the 49ers rank second in the NFL in pass rate over expectation through four weeks and have been thriving while doing so. San Francisco leads the NFL in yards per play while ranking second behind only the Bills in points per game.

This week’s matchup against the Seahawks will be one of “unstoppable force meets immovable object,” as the Seahawks have allowed the fewest yards per play (4.0) of any team in the NFL. After struggling mightily for much of the game against the Broncos in Week 4, the 49ers will have their hands full with this challenge. Seattle’s pass rush is ferocious, ranking 5th in QB pressure rate while having the 5th lowest blitz rate in the league. These stats, and how they correlate for a team, tell the story of pass rushing efficiency. The Seahawks are generating elite levels of pressure while not having to sacrifice coverage defenders. This, in a nutshell, is what makes them so hard to move the ball against. Seattle also boasts an above average run defense, with the Chargers in Week 4 as the only opponent to average over four yards per carry in a game this season. Seattle swarms the football and tackles well, limiting opponents rushing ability, while generating pressure and having opportunistic defensive backs who make plays against distressed quarterbacks. The Seahawks play the least man coverage of any team in the league, allowing their secondary to keep their eyes on the quarterback and make plays on the ball. The elite pressure their front four creates does not allow receivers the chance to poke holes in those zone coverages.

Everything about the Seattle defense is designed to limit big plays and also to be very good against the run. This means that the best way to move the ball is likely to be short area passing. Luckily for the 49ers, they have a lot of players who thrive in those situations. Expect Brock Purdy to continue passing at a high rate, with running back Christian McCaffrey and tight end George Kittle getting peppered with targets. The team is also likely to leverage the skill set of Deebo Samuel Sr. in a variety of creative ways, sometimes getting the ball in his hands and sometimes using him as a distraction or decoy to create space for others. Wide receiver Mike Evans is another week removed from his rib injury, which is still limiting his practice reps but his effectiveness and conditioning is likely to improve as each week passes. This does not seem like the matchup for Evans to thrive due to the nature of Seattle’s defense, but his presence is a huge deal for the 49ers offense. Just having him out there makes everyone else better and opens things up. Speaking of presences that matter, the 49ers will be without the services of fullback Kyle Juszczyk for at least a couple of weeks with a knee injury. This only serves to further push them to a high pass rate approach with a focus on short, quick passes that neutralize the ferocious Seattle pass rush.

DFS+ Interpretations::

Added Oct 9, 2026 · 1:45 AM ET

Published Oct 11, 2026 · 6:11 PM ET

Published Oct 12, 2026 · 9:24 AM ET