Papy’s Pieces 15.24

Papy is a full-time DFS player, with a focus on high-stakes tourneys, and with hundreds of thousands in lifetime profit

The Board

• The top of the slate has only one game expected to produce over 48 points. BUF/DET (54.5) towers above the rest of the slate, with no other game predicted to finish within a touchdown of its total.
• The middle tier is a slate of its own, holding a whopping 10 games. CIN/TEN (46.5), MIA/HOU (46.5), NE/AZ (46.5), TB/LAC (45.5), IND/DEN (44), WAS/NO (43.5), DAL/CAR (43), KC/CLE (43), PIT/PHL (43), and BAL/NYG (42.5), all have the potential to end up as the must-have game of the week.
• The bottom and top are similarly small, with the lone game that isn’t expected to produce points being NYJ/JAX (40.5). It’s hard to see a lot of total points from this game when the Jaguars have struggled all season.  

Pawn – TE Stone SmarTt ($2,600)       

Smartt stepped into the receiving TE role for the Chargers after Will Dissly exited last week’s game with an injury. He only played a moderate number (37%) of the snaps, but that number comes with the caveat that Dissly was healthy long enough to see the majority (40%) of the snaps at TE. With Dissly now sidelined, it’s reasonable to expect Smartt will step into a near full-time role. Last week, in only a third of the snaps, Smartt managed to post a 3/54 line on three targets. The Chargers offense likes to use their TEs, and no one would have confused Will Dissly for Rob Gronkowski at the start of the season, but he has still managed to put up above average numbers. There are strong plays at WR/RB this week, and it’s nice to be able to take a free square at TE who could get you 10 DK points without a TD. If Smartt finds his way into the end zone, he’ll automatically be a value at his price. It doesn’t hurt that the Bucs have been whacked by TEs (27^th in DVOA).

Knight – QB Aaron Rodgers ($5,400)