This course is focused on how to find the optimal lineup in Showdown. Note that finding the optimal lineup is very different from finding the winning lineup. The goal here is that, recognizing that the optimal lineup only wins a little over 50% of the time in Showdown tournaments, there’s a lot of money out there if you can find the exact optimal lineup and avoid a big multi-way tie for first. I also want to note that I’m assuming that you’ve read my existing Advanced Showdowns course, as I’ll make references to data and takeaways from it throughout this. It’s probably not 100% necessary, but it’s good material if I do say so myself, and if you don’t have it you’ll just have to trust what I’m saying when I reference it without being able to see the content yourself.
Let’s start with setting expectations. This strategy is not for the faint of heart. It’s going to involve high variance play, because you’re going to have to intentionally avoid plays that are strong on paper and take a more contrarian approach to roster construction. You’re going to have to be prepared to lose a lot of slates. The upside, though, is that these Showdown tournaments are extremely top-heavy and if you hit once, you’ve guaranteed yourself a profitable season. My approach is to work some amount of high-variance lineups into my normal MME builds. I don’t go all or nothing. If I’m max entering a Showdown tourney, I’ll do something like 125 lineups that are built to “win” and then 25 that are built to try and be optimal.
Why Showdown is great for this strategy
Let me start by saying that if you’re chasing the very top prize of a big GPP, I would absolutely target Showdowns over the full-slate Milly Makers. In most Showdowns you’re looking at a smaller prize of low six figures versus a million, but I just think they are far, far more winnable. Here’s why:
Again, I want to emphasize here that in the past two years, the optimal lineup has only won the big Showdown tournaments slightly over 50% of the time. That means that almost half the time there’s a 6-figure score out there that nobody is getting. That’s worth targeting.