Hindsight is a powerful tool. Looking back on Wild Card weekend, there weren’t any real unforeseen surprises, with the most shocking wins coming from home underdogs in the LA Rams and the Houston Texans. The big underdogs got clobbered (Steelers, Broncos, Packers) and the other game had a coin flip ending in Tampa Bay and Washington. Last week’s results are not always indicative of the next week but last week’s results are always relevant.
How things “played out” in any given week, especially in a week as overanalyzed and dissected as the NFL playoffs is an extremely important frame in shaping the next week. This is why hindsight is so powerful. Last week, all the big favorites won, and as we approach the Divisional Round, we have the same four teams in the AFC that were here last season (seeds 1-4), and seeds 1, 2, 4, and 6 in the NFC. Nothing major, business as usual. Let’s take advantage of that this week.
The best question in The Oracle every week is “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?” because as we look for unexpected outcomes every week, we should always aspire to predict something that makes sense afterward (without much explaining). So, in looking at the four games on tap this weekend, there are some “hindsight obvious” plays that I will let dictate Willing to Lose this week.