This is what we said in the macro slate view from last week, which is directly applicable to the Divisional Round slate as well:
“Before we get into the inner workings of this slate, I want to remind everyone of the theoretical leverage that can be gained by approaching each game in a sequence on a slate like this one. No two games are played simultaneously, meaning we get additional information with each game played. We can take that information (results, projected optimal players, ownership, etc) and include that in our decision-making matrix at each specific step – each game now being an additional decision node in the game tree. For those that are new to OWS, my works, or Game Theory, that effectively means we can adjust our rosters, and the decisions that lead to them, after each game is played. The benefit of this slate being spread across three days means that process is less time consuming and frantic as compared to the Thanksgiving slate earlier this year, giving us more time to adjust our thoughts and actions at each step.”
Quick explanation :: Restrictive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that restricts the maneuverability of the remainder of your roster while expansive chalk is an expected highly owned piece that allows for higher amounts of maneuverability on the remainder of your roster. Classifying various forms of chalk as either restrictive or expansive allows us to visualize what it means for roster construction on a given slate and how restrictive a certain player might be – meaning more of the field will look similar from a roster construction standpoint with that piece.
With there being only four games on the main slate for Divisional Weekend, we’re going to raise our threshold for classifying a play as chalk to 30% expected ownership.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Jahmyr Gibbs ended the regular season on an absolute tear in the absence of David Montgomery. Montgomery is off the team’s injury report and will play in the Divisional Round, bringing into question the expected split in usage between the two. Does the team continue forward with Gibbs in a featured role or do they scale back his usage towards a natural timeshare with Montgomery?
EXPANSIVE CHALK. The field seems to be expressing a high degree of confidence that Hollywood Brown will see a massive uptick in snap rate and route participation rate this week. It makes sense considering he played two games before being held out for rest in Week 18 and seeing an additional week of rest with the playoff bye, but the Chiefs have utilized a five-receiver rotation all season and appear content with Xavier Worthy leading the team in snaps and routes. High risk for minimal reward, in my opinion.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. After a dreadful start to the regular season, Sam LaPorta has rattled off double-digit DK points in six straight and eight of his last 10 games. He has peaked at just 21.1 DK points this season, but he is going to project extremely well based on his current salary and recent run of production.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. This dude is the truth and is likely already a top five wide receiver in the NFL. The matchup is a difficult one, but he should be the primary point of emphasis for the offense this week.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Khalil Shakir has gone over a modest 15.9 DK point three times this season, peaking at 24.6 in Week 14 against the Rams. That game ended in a 44-42 loss, highlighting the game environment Shakir likely needs to return a viable GPP score.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. Sun God clearly carries one of the highest raw ceilings on the slate, but he likely requires the Lions to be playing in negative game script to unlock said ceiling.
NEITHER RESTRICTIVE NOR EXPANSIVE CHALK. Terry McLaurin hit double-digit targets just four times this season, two of which came in the last two weeks. McLaurin went over 20 DK points eight times this season while scoring a ridiculous 14 touchdowns. More importantly, his splits align with the matchup against the Lions.
EXPANSIVE CHALK. Xavier Worthy has seen nine or more targets in each of his previous three games, hitting 19.6 fantasy points or more in all three contests. Even so, Worthy has his 20 DK points just three times all season and peaked at 22.9 in Week 17. If we break down the math into its simplest form, the field is saying Worthy will return a GPP-viable score at a 30-35% frequency in this spot, while his performance this season indicates he is probably in the 17.6% to 23.5% range.
RESTRICTIVE CHALK. The best, and most complete, running back in the league in a natural splits matchup, as six-point home favorites. Checks out.
Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests
Welcome back to my (Mjohnson86) Player Grid. I am changing up the format of my Player Grid this year to be more direct about the players I like at each position and keep myself from casting too wide of a net. We have plenty of strategy talk and full game write-ups on every game here at OWS, this year I’m going to use this article to give direct answers on who I think the best tournament plays are each week. Also, note that just because a player isn’t on here doesn’t mean they are a bad play, I’m just intentionally trying to limit the players I list to about 3 QBs, 5 to 7 RBs, 6 to 8 WRs, and 2 or 3 TEs and that means that some plays don’t make the cut – we can’t play everyone. Feel free to drop me feedback in Discord or on Twitter about the new format and if you like this better or last year’s. Enjoy!!
This is a list of players that stand out to me at each position from using my “Checking the Boxes” criteria outlined in my course you can find in our Marketplace. This list is a starting point, from which I build out lineups using game theory and roster construction concepts with the mindset being to find the best plays with big ceilings. Low ownership is a bonus, but not a must.
(Side note:: You’ll notice at the bottom of this article that Fanduel will have its own Player Grid this year)
The Greatest “Cheat Sheet” In DFS
Each week in The Oracle, OWS team members will take on the key strategy questions from that week’s slate :: sharing their thoughts on how they plan to approach these critical elements from a roster-construction, game theory, and leverage perspective.
We have four games this weekend and the deeper we get into the playoffs the more intense things get.
This weekend will conclude with the highly anticipated matchup between Baltimore and Buffalo, which is close to a “pick ‘em”. Prior to that, we have three games that have spreads ranging from 6 to 10 points.
From an expected scoring standpoint, we have two games with totals in the low 40’s (HOU/KC and LAR/PHI) and the other two games with totals comfortably north of 50 (WAS/DET and BAL/BUF).
Two part question::
None of these games are divisional matchups, yet three of them are rematches from the regular season. We often talk about how anything can happen in a given week, but these rematches are somewhat unique. HOU/KC played on in Week 16 and the Chiefs pulled out a game that was within one score throughout (as most Chiefs games are). Nothing too crazy happened there in terms of offensive output. However, when the Ravens beat the Bills 35-10 Derrick Henry and the Ravens backfield had their best game of the season (which is saying something). Likewise, Saquon Barkley had his best game of his historic season when the Eagles faced the Rams in Week 12. Considering how this slate shapes up, those two players at their hefty salaries seem like they are likely to shape how the slate turns out. A repeat performance by one or both of these players and you’ll likely need them to win. At their salaries, if they just have “OK” games you’re probably just hoping to cash.
How much stock do you put in those first performances against these defenses and what are your expectations for them for this week?
Hindsight is a powerful tool. Looking back on Wild Card weekend, there weren’t any real unforeseen surprises, with the most shocking wins coming from home underdogs in the LA Rams and the Houston Texans. The big underdogs got clobbered (Steelers, Broncos, Packers) and the other game had a coin flip ending in Tampa Bay and Washington. Last week’s results are not always indicative of the next week but last week’s results are always relevant.
How things “played out” in any given week, especially in a week as overanalyzed and dissected as the NFL playoffs is an extremely important frame in shaping the next week. This is why hindsight is so powerful. Last week, all the big favorites won, and as we approach the Divisional Round, we have the same four teams in the AFC that were here last season (seeds 1-4), and seeds 1, 2, 4, and 6 in the NFC. Nothing major, business as usual. Let’s take advantage of that this week.
The best question in The Oracle every week is “That was so obvious, how did I not see it?” because as we look for unexpected outcomes every week, we should always aspire to predict something that makes sense afterward (without much explaining). So, in looking at the four games on tap this weekend, there are some “hindsight obvious” plays that I will let dictate Willing to Lose this week.
Mike Johnson (MJohnson86) has racked up nearly $500,000 in DFS profit as an NFL tournament player with success in all styles of contests
This article is specifically designed to give you some ideas on ways that we can use strategy to jump ahead of the field on Fanduel. Touchdowns play an even bigger role on Fanduel than on Draftkings because receptions are only worth half a point, while on DK receptions are worth a full point. Touchdowns used to be an even bigger deal before (this year, FD added bonuses for yardage totals – more on this below), but it’s still something we need to focus on because of the reception difference and how they price their players. Touchdowns have a high degree of variance and since they carry so much weight on Fanduel, this article will focus on ways each week that we can leverage that variance to jump ahead of the field when things don’t go exactly as expected as far as who crosses the imaginary line while holding the football.
