The Matchup ::

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• 11 of 16 QBs have cleared 270 yards passing vs HOU (8 over 300)
• Josh Allen’s season-high in pass yards is just 266 yards, and he has been under 190 yards six times
• Allen’s averages in 6 games vs bottom-10 pass efficiency defenses: 224.2 pass ypg, 1.5 pass TDs, 35 rush ypg, 0.67 rush TDs
• VS HOU, Lamar ran for 86 yards and Minshew combined for 90 rushing yards in 2 games
• Since Week 8, Allen has been between 6 and 10 rush attempts in every game but one
• WRs to clear 100 yards vs HOU: Thomas, Ginn, Allen, Pascal, Edelman, Perriman, AJ Brown (x2)
• HOU tied for 8th most WR TDs allowed with 18
• Only WRs with higher market share of air yards than John Brown: Sutton, Diggs, McLaurin, Thomas, Robinson
• Cole Beasley has more games above 14 DK points than John Brown in 2019
• Devin Singletary has just 5 games above 28 receiving yards
• RB rec allowed ranks of those 5 teams: 24th, 16th, 28th, 26th, 1st
• HOU ranks 29th in RB receptions allowed
• With Fuller active in the 2018 matchup, Watson went for 177 yards, TD, 3 TO, 2 rush yards, and was sacked 7 times with just 13 offensive points
• Watson’s DK point totals vs 2019 top-12 pass efficiency defenses: 12.6 // 31.4 // 6.0 // 28.9 // 10.1
• BUF ranks 5th in pass efficiency defense, but has only faced 2 pass offenses ranked in the top 13 of efficiency (DAL, BAL)
• In those games, Dak: 355 pass yards, 2 TD, INT, 25 rush yards; Lamar: 145 pass yards, 3 TD, INT, 40 rush yards (Both teams scored 9+ points below season average)
• Deandre Hopkins in the 5 games vs top-12 pass efficiency defenses (yards & targets): 41 yards (8), 55 yards (12), 80 yards (12), 64 yards (8), 23 yards (9); zero touchdowns

The Game ::

The 2019/2020 playoffs (which features one of the most wide open fields in recent memory – with some clear “best teams” at the top, but with almost every team having clear and legitimate paths to making a run through the tournament) will open with the 10-6 Buffalo Bills traveling to take on the 10-6 Houston Texans (coincidentally, this is the sixth playoff trip in Texans history, and is the sixth time the Texans will be playing the first game on the Saturday slate). The Bills are an up-and-coming unit that is built around defense (sixth in DVOA), the run game (29th in pass play rate), and a “game management plus upside” approach to the passing attack. The Texans, of course – with de facto general manager Bill O’Brien – have, for some reason, decided to view this year as the peak of their championship window, having made several aggressive trades to set them up for this year. Both teams have a tendency to start slow (each team is averaging only .98 points per drive in the first quarter this year), and between the Bills’ ability to limit big plays on defense and their desire to slow down games on offense with a run-leaning, ball-control approach, the likeliest scenario in this game has slate-breaking fantasy production showing up only through A) volume, or B) big plays.

Buffalo’s most consistent means of moving the ball will be rookie running back Devin Singletary, who has recent touch counts of 22 // 17 // 23 // 23 // 16, including target counts of 2 // 4 // 8 // 3 // 1. The Texans face the seventh highest opponent pass play rate in the league, but as explored heading into last week’s game between the Titans and Texans, this should not be taken to mean that the Texans are terrifying against the run, having allowed 4.61 yards per carry to running backs while ranking 22nd in DVOA. Teams that look to lean on the run regardless of opponent or matchup tend to be able to rack up production in the spot; and while the return of J.J. Watt bumps up the level of difficulty in this matchup, we should also keep in mind that Watt is returning impossibly quickly from his pectoral injury, and he may not be quite ready to play a full complement of fully effective snaps. Consider this a “solid spot with some risk” for Singletary, with his upside boosted by the fact that Houston allowed the second most receiving yards to running backs this year, while this adaptable Buffalo coaching staff will likely try to take advantage in this area.

While the Bills have largely settled on an offensive identity throughout the second half of the season of heavy 11-personnel, a run-leaning setup, and a game-management style passing attack, this is also a unit – as we have explored throughout the season – that goes out of its way to embrace the idea of adaptability. Buffalo should enter this game understanding that the best path to a win is to keep Deshaun Watson off the field and shorten this game as much as they can, but if the Texans are able to bust out for a couple big plays, or if Buffalo simply finds after their first couple drives that they are unable to run the ball, it wouldn’t be a total surprise to see this team tilt a bit more heavily toward the air, in a matchup against a Houston defense that ranks 26th in DVOA and has allowed the ninth most yards per pass attempt, with the 10th most yards and the eighth most touchdowns allowed to wide receivers. John Brown has recent target counts of 4 // 4 // 8 // 10 // 4, and while the lower end of that range would be preferred for the Bills in this game environment, you could certainly build around scenarios in which JB pushes toward the higher end of his volume range. Brown has mistakenly been viewed in some fantasy circles this year as a deep threat, but it is actually his intermediate work that has floated his value (including a stretch of 10 games to open the year of 50 or more receiving yards – a stretch during which he and Michael Thomas were, for several weeks, the last two receivers in the NFL who had yet to finish below 50 yards). Brown’s only blowup game in this largely conservative offense came against the Dolphins, with only a couple other really strong games, but he has been a reliable floor piece this year, and he has outside opportunity for upside. Behind Brown (or, at this point, perhaps alongside Brown) is Cole Beasley, who has recent target counts of 9 // 7 // 7 // 6 // 12. Beasley has had a number of games this year in which all but one of his targets came within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, but he has also had other games – in this adaptable offense – in which he has worked the intermediate areas of the field, and against a Houston defense that boosts average depth of target by 5%, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Beasley get a couple more intermediate looks. Beasley has also shown underrated YAC upside this year – another area in which Houston has struggled. With his rising price tag, his floor isn’t exactly “high,” but he’s unlikely to post a game that will kill you, and he has shown some bursts of upside that could be enough to stand out on a smaller slate such as this. Behind these three core pieces on this offense (Singletary, Brown, and Beasley), the Bills feature Isaiah McKenzie as a gadget piece while mixing in either Robert Foster or Duke Williams for a couple plays each week (with one of these typically inactive, based on what Daboll and this coaching staff sees that particular game), while Dawson Knox has been operating as the lead tight end (recent, primarily short-area target counts of 2 // 4 // 4 // 1 // 4), requiring a broken play or a touchdown in order to really stand out.

On the other side of the ball, Buffalo is forcing the second shallowest aDOT in the NFL while allowing the fewest pass plays of 20+ yards. They are shaving over 8% off the league average YAC/r rate and are shaving 3% off the league average catch rate, which has led to this team allowing the second fewest passing touchdowns and the fourth fewest passing yards in the league. Through pure attrition, the Bills rank middle of the pack in receptions allowed to wide receivers, but only five teams have allowed fewer yards to wideouts, and only one team has allowed fewer touchdown receptions. The Bills have really allowed only three usable wide receiver stat lines on the season. From a real-life standpoint, things will open up a bit for the Houston passing attack if Will Fuller is cleared for this game (Fuller is a game-time decision, with the likeliest scenario here being that Fuller is active but not quite himself, and that he is able to provide some spacing in this offense without really making a major dent in the box score; naturally, there are different ways this injury could play out, and you could play those various scenarios across different roster construction approaches — while a report also came out late Thursday that Fuller is now trending toward inactive, which would remove him from the game entirely). Assuming Fuller is active, he profiles as a boom/bust option, on whom the Bills should place a heavy emphasis of focus in the downfield areas of the field. Fuller’s presence would open the field a bit for DeAndre Hopkins, while Fuller’s presence (as we have explored throughout the season) has also had a negative effect on target counts and aDOT for Hopkins. Especially in the shadow of Tre’Davious White, Hopkins should only be projected for eight to nine targets if Fuller is active, with anything over this a bonus. If Fuller misses, the matchup becomes even tougher for Hopkins, though his chances of seeing double digit targets (and his chances of more of this work coming downfield) will be elevated. Both of these guys are merely “bet on talent, fade matchup” options against one of the toughest secondaries in the league. Behind these two, Kenny Stills should be on the field for his typical three to five downfield looks, while Jordan Akins (recent target counts of 9 // 2 // 2 // 7) and Darren Fells (4 // 2 // 3 // 0) will function as short area outlets who will require a broken play or touchdown in order to matter.

The Texans’ best means of moving the ball consistently, of course, may actually be on the ground, where the Bills rank 18th in DVOA (compared to fifth through the air) and have allowed 4.37 yards per carry to running backs this year. Unfortunately, the Texans backfield has been practically unemployable in fantasy this year outside of clear and obvious smash spots, with Carlos Hyde seeing only 16 targets all season while notching only three games of 100+ rushing yards, and with Duke Johnson mixing in for recent touch counts of only 7 // 4 // 3 // 9. A bet on the Texans backfield is a bet on capturing a broken play or a couple touchdowns, and such rosters should be balanced with more stable pieces away from these spots.

JM’s Interpretation ::

The “Interpretation” section this week blends all four games, and can be found here. It is recommended that you read all four game writeups before reading the “Interpretation” section, as this will allow you to develop your own thoughts on this slate before comparing them against my own.

Playoff Contest Game Theory Breakdown ::

You can find Hilow’s tremendous Playoff Contest Game Theory Breakdown here.

Xandamere’s Showdown Notes ::

• If Buffalo wins, it could be through the run game and defense, or the scoring could come through the air through big plays (less likely through volume, but certainly not impossible).
• If Houston wins, it seems to me to be more likely through the run game and defense. It’s hard to see the Houston passing attack really smashing here against a Buffalo defense that has absolutely stifled opposing passing games, especially if Will Fuller doesn’t play (which seems like the likeliest scenario). 
• Allen is overpriced but has what is probably the safest floor in the game.
• Hopkins is a bet on talent (and volume) play in one of the toughest matchups in football. He can succeed here, but personally I think the better place to use him is on the full weekend slate where he’ll be very underowned. 
• If Fuller is out, note that Kenny Stills has not seen a lot of extra work in prior games Fuller has missed. Extra work is likely to flow to Duke Johnson and both tight ends in 12-personnel sets.
• Keke Coutee seems like he should see work if Fuller misses but the Texans have been using Deandre Carter more all season long.
• Carlos Hyde is likely only viable in “Houston wins” or at least “Houston keeps the game very close all game long” scenarios. Deploy him accordingly.
• On the Bills’ side, Beasley and Brown are priced very close, with Beasley having had more recent success. I’ll take Brown as the guy who I believe is a similar floor but higher upside play.
• Devin Singletary has taken over the lead back role but Frank Gore gets a distressingly large amount of goal line work (as does Josh Allen).

Some groups to consider:

• At most 1 kicker
• At most 1 defense
• Pair captain receivers with their QB (consider not pairing Hopkins as, when you consider prices, it’s possible for Hopkins to get there purely through volume without carrying Watson along with him)
• Pair captain QBs with at least 1 receiver
• At most 1 of Hyde and Duke Johnson
• At most 1 of McKenzie, Foster, and Williams
• At most 1 of Coutee and Carter

( Player Grid Live :: TodFromPa, Hilow, and Lex Miraglia will be breaking down further thoughts on the slate Friday night at 8 PM Eastern on the Run to Daylight podcast here! Join us for the last show of the season! )

The Matchup ::

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• 10 of 15 starting QBs have thrown for multiple TDs vs TEN
• Brady has cleared 320 yards in 4 of 6 matchups vs Pees-coordinated defenses, with a 9:4 TD:INT ratio; however, only one matchup has come since 2016: his worst of the 6, vs TEN in 2018
• TEN has allowed the 2nd-most receptions to RBs at the 3rd-highest target rate
• NE targets running backs among the highest rates in the league
• James White has been between 9.6-16.4 DK points in 12/15 games (2 below, 1 above)
• Sony Michel has 18+ attempts in 3 straight games on just 42% of the snaps
• Michel’s big ’18 playoff run of 23.7 att for 112 ypg & 6 TDs came on just 39% of the snaps
• Only 3 running backs have posted good scores vs NE (Ingram, Duke, Mixon) and only 4 have topped 100 rush yards (Gore, Chubb, Ingram, Mixon)
• NE has faced the 2nd-easiest schedule of rush offenses in NFL on its path to ranking 6th in rush efficiency defense
• In his last 6 games, Henry is averaging 23.2 att for 149.3 ypg and 10 touchdowns against the 2nd-easiest slate of run defenses during that time
• NE has faced just 3 top-10 offenses in efficiency (BAL, DAL, KC), allowing 37 pts, 9 pts, & 23 pts while losing twice
• BAL exceeded its season avg by 3, while the other two fell below by 18 and 5 points
• TEN ranks 6th in offensive efficiency, scoring 20+ points in every Tannehill start, something they failed to do in 4 of 6 Mariota starts
• Tannehill has scored multiple touchdowns in 9 of his 10 starts on his way to 6 games above 23 DK pts
• In 2 games vs NE, albeit both before AJ Brown’s arrival, Corey Davis has gone for 7 rec (10) 125yards, TD and 5 rec (8) 63yards, 2 TD
• Starting CB Jason McCourty is not expected to play for NE

The Game ::

Titans at Patriots gives us two well-coached, fundamentally sound football teams that each boast attention to detail as one of their hallmarks of success. The Patriots offense has almost no explosive components, while the Patriots defense has been one of the best in the league at preventing big plays, with the sixth fewest pass plays and the third fewest rush plays of 20+ yards allowed. The Titans, meanwhile, run what we could call a “game management” style of offense, with their big plays coming not from an aggressive mindset, but from the explosive ball-in-his-hands ability of Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown. Blend all these elements together, and we should have a game built more on “drives” than on sudden changes and big plays – likely leading to a competitive game in which moderate scoring can be approached, but in which a shootout is highly unlikely.

We’ll start on the Titans side of the ball, where their late-season offense has been built around Henry (recent carry counts of 26 // 18 // 21 // 32; recent rushing yardage totals of 149 // 103 // 86 // 211). The Patriots have been “merely above-average” against the run this year on a per-touch basis (allowing 4.06 yards per carry to running backs), though this is also where our understanding of personnel and coaching comes into play, as the Patriots have spent the last few years willing to give up yards on the ground between the 20s before tightening up near the goal line (with New England finishing this year with the fewest rushing touchdowns allowed to the position — the fourth year in a row in which they have finished in the top three in this category, and the fifth time in six years). The Patriots will know that the best way to secure a win in this game will be to force the Titans to win without Derrick Henry – and especially with this team’s confidence in Stephon Gilmore (whom they can stick on A.J. Brown for the majority of this game), we should expect the Patriots to be focused on an “all to the ball” approach when Henry is running: with responsibilities mapped out for this defense to ensure they minimize opportunities for massive gains, and with players flying to Henry the moment he gets hit. With that said, it hasn’t exactly been news to any teams over the last month and a half that stopping Henry is the key to stopping the Titans, and this is a task that is easier said than done. Consider Henry a boom/bust play, whose likeliest scoring output lands him well shy of price-considered expectations, but whose ceiling remains intact.

Through the air, the Titans will be focused first and foremost on Brown, whose price tag is not even remotely supported by his volume (recent target counts of 5 // 4 // 7 // 13 // 2 // 8), but whose explosive ability has kept him in the upside mix throughout the second half of the season. While Brown cannot be penciled in for the sort of volume DeVante Parker was seeing, it is worth noting that Brown is used in a similar manner in this offense, with an average depth of target of 13.4 (0.4 yards behind Parker), and with the Titans looking for ways to clear out space for Brown to run with the ball after the catch (Brown finished the regular season ranked first in the league in yards after catch per reception). In spite of his slip-up against Parker in Week 17, Gilmore is still the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year, and one bad game from him should not change how we perceive this matchup. But on a playoff slate with only four games, risks sometimes have to be taken in order to target upside, and Brown’s upside is high enough that he’s certainly a player to keep in mind. Behind Brown, Corey Davis (recent target counts of 3 // 2 // 4 // 6 // 4 // 5), Tajae Sharpe (1 // 0 // 4 // 2 // 6 // 2), and Jonnu Smith (0 // 2 // 4 // 5 // 4 // 0) all have difficult matchups of their own, and none come with anything approaching guaranteed volume. These guys are best reserved for dart throw status – hoping to guess right on a broken play or a touchdown.

The Patriots offense has been their undoing this season, with this unit uncharacteristically getting worse as the season has progressed. Part of these troubles have been centered around Julian Edelman, who is not only incredibly banged up, but who has also been seeing plenty of double teams in recent weeks, leading to recent target counts of 5 // 6 // 7 after a stretch of eight consecutive games with double-digit looks. Much of the Patriots offense is built around the pass catchers seeing the defense the same way that Tom Brady is seeing it, and adjusting their route accordingly, and with N’Keal Harry still too green to do anything but run the called route, and with Mohamed Sanu still miles away from meshing with this offense, we have seen this unit completely stall out as Edelman has been taken away. The Patriots have tried going run heavy, but as admirable a job as linebacker Elandon Roberts has done as a fullback, he is no James Develin, and this offensive line (especially without an elite blocking tight end to help them) is just not opening holes the way they want. All of this creates a tough setup against a Titans team that ranks 10th in DVOA against the run and is best attacked through the air.

As always with this opponent-specific Patriots team, there is some guesswork involved in assessing where volume will flow, and your best bet if wanting to build around some Patriots pieces (or if wanting to build around this game environment as a whole) is to build around some different ways in which this game could develop and this offense could end up tilting as a result. The likeliest setup here has the Patriots leveraging the defensive attention paid to Edelman in order to open up some other areas of the field – with James White (recent target counts of 11 // 7 // 4 // 5 // 3, combined with recent carry accounts of 14 // 6 // 3 // 3// 2) the player likeliest today to take advantage in a manner that will matter in the box score. Alternate ways to play this include :: Edelman looking healthier than he has the last few weeks and busting out for a big game || Edelman getting slowed over the middle, Harry getting checked by Adoree Jackson, and Sanu finally emerging as a useful piece for this offense || Harry beating a tough matchup on the outside and seeing heavier volume than he has seen to date (or simply breaking off a big play or two – with his red zone prowess a plus here) || or finally, betting on the run game finding a way to control this matchup. If betting on the run game, you could bet on Sony Michel and hope he punches in a couple touchdowns (which is all but required in order for him to post a big game), or you could bet on Rex Burkhead – who has looked really good lately with seven to nine touches per game – being more heavily featured in this spot, and becoming the engine of a Patriots win. Ultimately, we have spent much of this season with Edelman and “hope for touchdown regression on White” as the only viable options on this middling, spread-the-wealth offense, and given the way Edelman has looked the last few weeks, it certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if no players from this offense find their way onto first place tournament rosters this weekend. But with only four games to choose from, there is certainly a case to be made for trying a few different things, and there are a few different ways to try these things through the Patriots’ attack.

JM’s Interpretation ::

The “Interpretation” section this week blends all four games, and can be found here. It is recommended that you read all four game writeups before reading the “Interpretation” section, as this will allow you to develop your own thoughts on this slate before comparing them against my own.

Playoff Contest Game Theory Breakdown ::

You can find Hilow’s tremendous Playoff Contest Game Theory Breakdown here.

Xandamere’s Showdown Notes ::

• I’m clearly biased here but I think Tennessee wins this game. I just don’t have faith in the Pats’ offense, though clearly they’ve proven doubters wrong before!
• If the Titans win it’s not likely to be because they scored 30 points and the Pats scored 27; it’s likely to be because the New England offense floundered. You can build for an unlikely high-scoring game as a contrarian play, of course, but I would strongly consider a lot of exposure to Titans D in game scenarios that have the Titans winning.
• If the Titans win it’s highly likely to come on the back of Derrick Henry. It’s less likely to come through the pass game, though with A.J. Brown’s big play ability it is not impossible.
• I think Tom Brady is the safest all-around play, followed by James White. 
• The Pats’ receivers beyond Edelman and White are, as always, tough to figure out. Sanu is playing the snaps but Harry seems to be getting more overall usage and is even getting a carry or two per game, boosting his floor. I’d rank Harry above Sanu personally, and I’m not super interested in the tight ends except for as very small percentage MME plays.
• Derrick Henry is incredibly expensive for a 2-down road underdog back. Normally I like running backs in cash but his floor is awfully low for the price.
• The Pats are such an opponent-specific offense that you can build in a lot of different ways, from Michel being heavily utilized and punching in a couple of touchdowns to Rex Burkhead’s role expanding in the playoffs and him taking over as a more versatile back. 
• Corey Davis feels like the strongest value play as he’s seen 4-6 targets per game in a WR2 role, which is normally priced $1k – $2k higher in showdowns. 

Some groups to consider:

• At most 1 kicker
• At most 1 defense (if you want to be aggressive/risky, you could even consider a rule of “exactly 1 defense” and bet on a low scoring game)
• Pair captain receivers with their QB (could consider not doing this for Edelman as we’ve seen him get there purely through volume without scoring)
• Pair captain QBs with at least 2 receivers
• At most 2 Patriots running backs
• At most 1 of Sanu and Harry
• At most 1 of Henry and Lewis

The Matchup ::

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• MIN has played 3 top-5 pass efficiency offenses, all on the road, allowing 26 to KC (Moore), 24 to DAL, & 37 to SEA.
• Drew Brees has played 7 home playoff games as a Saint. The last time he threw for less than 2 TDs was 2006.
• Terron Armstead played through illness in W10 vs ATL and missed W13 vs ATL. Those are the only 2 games NOR has failed to score 30 points with Brees.
• Brees’ averages in the other 8 games: 308.75 yards, 3.25 TDs, 0.38 INT
• NOR returned all 5 O-Line starters in W17 for first time since W10
• MIN D vs WRs has allowed the 2nd-most receptions, 9th-most yards, T-9th-most TDs
• In 6 home games with Brees, Michael Thomas has hit 10 rec and 100yards in all 6, along with 4 TDs
• MIN has allowed the 8th-most receptions to TEs, but an NFL best 1 TD all year
• Jared Cook has 5 TDs and 61.5ypg the last 4 weeks on just 3 targets per game. The last time he exceeded 4 targets was W13.
• MIN D is 10th in RB rec allowed, 8th in RB rec yards, and T-9th with 12 total RB TDs
• Both TDs & 109 of Aaron Jones’ 160 yards in Week 17 came after Kendricks left the game late 2nd Q (he remains Questionable)
• Since returning from INJ in W10, Kamara is averaging just under 19 touches per game with only one game above 20 touches. He hasn’t topped 30 rec yards since W12.
• In 2 full-time games vs MIN, Kamara is averaging 12 att, 44 yards, & 5.5 rec (7.5), 46.5 yards with 3 total TDs
• NOR hasn’t allowed an individual RB to top 100 rush yards since W11 of 2017 and they rank 2nd in RB rush yards allowed in 2019.
• Dalvin Cook’s last four total yardage totals: 43, 75, 64, 57
• NOR has faced the least amount of rush attempts in NFL this year
• NOR has allowed the 6th most receptions to RBs but ranks middle of the pack in rec yards allowed.
• Dalvin Cook has 3+ catches 10 times and 5+ catches 5 times in 2019
• In the 2018 matchup, Cousins was sacked 4 times by Rankins and Davenport, both of whom are currently on IR.
• 16 of 28 Cousins sacks came in 3 games vs CHI, GB, DEN
• NOR has played 4 top-10 pass efficiency offenses (SEA, DAL, SF, TEN), with those quarterbacks averaging 312.5 yards, 2.25 TDs, 0.5 INTs through the air
• In 2 games vs Dennis Allen’s Saints D, Cousins has topped 300 yards both times with a 5:1 TD:INT ratio
• NOR has allowed 6 WRs to top 100 yards: Hopkins, Kupp, Lockett, Godwin, Moore, Sanders
• NOR has allowed 4 WRs to score 2 TDs: Hopkins, Godwin, Moore, Sharpe
• In 3 MIN games vs Allen’s D, Diggs & Thielen have played with Bradford, Keenum, & Cousins, while NOR has paired Lattimore with PJ Williams, Ken Crawley, & Eli Apple
• Diggs is averaging 116 ypg with 4 TDs in these games (96 ypg without miracle play)
• Thielen is averaging 111.33 ypg with 1 TD in these games
• Diggs has topped 100 yards once since W8, while Thielen has one game all year over 100 yards (W5 pre-injury)

The Game ::

The Saints are going to have an opportunity to close the circle on the last two years (the circle that has led to one of the best teams in the NFL getting bumped out of the playoffs earlier than they should have each of the last two seasons, and that has led to the best team in the NFC landing the number three seed this season) with a game against the Vikings team that knocked them out with the Minneapolis Miracle on January 14, 2018. The Saints are currently 7.5 point favorites (making them the largest favorites of the first round).

These teams are fairly evenly-matched on paper — with the Saints ranking four spots behind Minnesota in defensive DVOA and six spots ahead in offensive DVOA, while these two both rank top eight in scoring and top 13 in point prevention — but with Drew Brees healthy and this game being played at the Superdome, New Orleans has a legitimate edge. This is the team from the Wild Card round with the best shot at making a run at the Super Bowl — though don’t discount the chances (pegged by Hilow at about 30%; pegged by EV Analytics at about 22%) of the Vikings pulling off the upset here, and of fantasy points falling accordingly.

As we have explored throughout the season, the Saints are going to play slow and focus on the short areas of the field — with a focus on efficiency over explosiveness — and the two key components for this attack will (as always) be Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Given the other options on this slate (the conservative Bills // the inconsistent Texans taking on the stout Bills defense // the Titans on the road against New England // the non-explosive, spread-the-wealth Patriots // the run-focused, “play for the fourth quarter” Seahawks // the banged-up, low-wattage Eagles), this game is sure to be a focal point for fantasy lineups, and the Saints (with the highest Vegas-implied total on the slate) are sure to be leaned on heavily by the DFS community. With Thomas standing out as the key piece on the Saints, he has a shot at being the most popular player on this slate — and yet, it’s tough to find an argument against that play beyond “building around outlier scenarios,” as Thomas should be a lock for double-digit looks in this game, against a secondary that has been hit for the second most wide receiver catches and the ninth most wide receiver yards on the year. This will be an opportunity for Thomas to show off his elite skill set on the national stage.

Kamara is a bit less secure (as we have explored basically all season), with his numbers this year rarely matching up with his price. Minnesota has allowed 4.39 yards per carry to running backs, while they have been middling against pass-catching backs, opening opportunity for Kamara to sneak an elite game onto the stat sheet — though as we continue to see, his touches will be capped in this offense, and he will need to pour in a couple touchdowns in order to truly make a difference. Thomas has 22 red zone targets (the second most in the league), while Kamara’s 26 carries in the red zone are less than half of league leaders Ezekiel Elliott (59) and Christian McCaffrey (54) — though he does have 11 targets in the red zone as well, and he’s still a bit behind pace in touchdown scoring for his role, if you want to play the “bet on regression” game. Behind Thomas and Kamara, of course, this offense is thin volume on a broad cast of characters, with the touchdown upside for Jared Cook providing the best bet for alternative paths to production (though with his ownership typically taking on more weight than his role actually supports).

Perhaps the most interesting offense on this slate — certainly an offense that has one of the clearest shots at becoming a difference-maker — is the Vikings, as the Saints have remained lights-out against the run, which has led to New Orleans facing the second highest opponent pass play rate in the league. The Saints finished the year ranked 13th in pass defense DVOA and 10th in yards allowed per pass attempt, but with this team facing so much volume, they ended up allowing the 10th most wide receiver receptions (and they were separated from the sixth place team by only three receptions), while giving up the seventh most yards and the eighth most touchdowns. Working against the Vikings’ pass catchers, of course, is the fact that “volume” has not been remotely bankable in this run-leaning offense, with Stefon Diggs topping nine targets only once (in spite of Adam Thielen missing a month and a half), and with Thielen failing to top eight looks all year. With the Saints shaving 3% off the league-average catch rate and 14% off the league-average YAC/r rate, a bet on these two would be more comfortable to make if volume could be counted on to cooperate, but both guys are worth considering for their moderate shots at breaking through in a below-average “per pass” matchup, or for their outside shots at breaking through on heavier-than-normal volume. Diggs should see the most of Marshon Lattimore on the outside — though he has enough “big play upside” to his game that he really only needs to break the matchup one or two times in order to pay off. Both of these guys can be considered viable tourney options.

The rest of this offense will flow through Dalvin Cook on the ground and some mix of Kyle Rudolph, Irv Smith, and Olabisi Johnson through the air. Cook is a “bet on talent in a tough matchup” option, while all three pass catchers behind Diggs and Thielen are “bet on time on the field and hope to guess right on a touchdown” plays.

JM’s Interpretation ::

The “Interpretation” section this week blends all four games, and can be found here. It is recommended that you read all four game writeups before reading the “Interpretation” section, as this will allow you to develop your own thoughts on this slate before comparing them against my own.

Playoff Contest Game Theory Breakdown ::

You can find Hilow’s tremendous Playoff Contest Game Theory Breakdown here.

Xandamere’s Showdown Notes ::

• The game likeliest to turn into an actual back and forth shootout, but personally I think the way to play that scenario is to bet on it on the full weekend slate (where the Vikings offense is projected to go awfully low owned) and then hedge with betting on either a one-sided victory or a lower-scoring game in Showdown. This is an example of how I think about strategy on a slate like this and how you can use a full slate and a showdown to hedge each other. If you’re only playing showdowns, though, throw this advice aside.
• On the main slate Diggs and Thielen are projecting to go very low owned and represent interesting buying opportunities. On the showdown I’m not sure that they will go low owned, but they’re still high ceiling plays.
• I always have a hard time buying Alvin Kamara’s projections as while his floor is kept safe by his pass game role, his ceiling just hasn’t really shown up this year.
• After playing fewer snaps and seeing less volume for almost the entire year, Tre’Quan Smith played over 2x the snaps of Ted Ginn last week and caught 5 of 5 targets including a touchdown. I buy into the narrative of Smith passing Ginn in the depth chart here and think he’s going to be a key weapon for the Saints in the playoffs, and at just $4,400 he’s a great value play on this slate.
• Of the super cheap plays, Irv Smith is my favorite at just $1,400 as the Vikings have been running a lot of 12 personnel lately. Smith outsnapped Kyle Rudolph in Weeks 15-16 (in Week 17 Rudolph didn’t play as the Vikings rested starters, so I’m not counting that one).
• Taysom Hill is the bane of my showdown existence. I won’t ever try to predict that guy because I never get him right, but just be aware that he’s down there in value-land and that it’s entirely possible he catches a touchdown, or throws a touchdown, or rushes for a touchdown, or even all three.

Some groups to consider:

• At most 1 kicker
• At most 1 defense
• Pair captain QBs with at least 2 receivers
• Pair captain receivers with their QB (consider not doing so for MT just due the incredibly high price of both him and Brees)
• At most 1 of Smith and Ginn

( Player Grid Live :: TodFromPa, Hilow, and Lex Miraglia will be breaking down further thoughts on the slate Friday night at 8 PM Eastern on the Run to Daylight podcast here! Join us for the last show of the season! )

The Matchup ::

:: Powered by Lex Miraglia

• QBs to go over 300 yards vs PHI: Keenum, Ryan, Rodgers, Cousins, Fitzpatrick, Jones
• Notable QBs to go under 300 yards vs PHI: Stafford, Dak (x2), Brady, Wilson
• Across 3 matchups vs Schwartz’s PHI D, Wilson is averaging 233 pass yards & 21.7 rush yards with 6 total TDs in 3 Wins
• PHI has knocked 4.4% off league-average catch rate, but has boosted aDOT by 7.7%
• SEA’s four likely rotational receivers’ aDOTs: Lockett (12.4), Metcalf (13), Moore (14.2), Turner (12)
• PHI has only allowed 3 backfields to top 100 rush yards: Cook/Mattison, Zeke/Pollard, Carson/Penny
• PHI ranks middle of the pack in RB receptions & receiving yards allowed, but 11 individual RBs have topped at least 30 yards through the air
• Homer’s last 2 games through the air: 6 rec (8) 26 yards and 5 rec (5) 30 yards; all but 1 RB target
• In 3 matchups vs SEA, Wentz has topped 300 yards once on 45 att/g with a 4:5 TD:INT ratio
• Wentz’s top available pass game weapons will likely be Goedert, Ward, JJAW, & Scott, three of whom did not begin the year as rotational players
• 11 TEs with 6+ targets vs SEA are averaging 5.9 rec (8.4) for 65.8 ypg & 6 total TDs
• Goedert has 6+ targets in all 7 games post-bye
• Goedert’s last 2 games with Ertz hurt: 9 rec (12) 91 yards, TD and 4 rec (10) 65 yards

The Game ::

Seahawks at Eagles gives us two teams with championship pedigrees that could conceivably make a run at a Super Bowl title this year, but that are both dealing with a lot of injury issues likely to trip them up on the way. Seattle is the better team (reflected in their standing as road favorites), and their tendency to “play for the fourth quarter” could keep them in games against San Francisco (round two) and Green Bay/New Orleans (round three) long enough for good things to happen at the end — though this same tendency could lead to Philly pulling out a late win in this one. This gives us a number of ways in which this game could ultimately play out — though regardless of the end result, we are likely to see a somewhat close game, with the Eagles incapable of attacking downfield at the moment, and with the Seahawks uninterested in shifting to a pass-heavy, attack-minded mode until forced by game script to go there.

This latter element is unfortunate, as the Seahawks could probably pull away in this game if they were willing to go hurry-up early and attack more heavily through the air — and you could absolutely build around a game environment approach in which this ends up being the case. More than likely, however, Seattle — even in a tough running back matchup — should continue to lean on the run, with an eye toward winning this game down the stretch.

This approach will give us Marshawn Lynch and Travis Homer splitting reps, with Lynch operating as the yardage-and-touchdown guy (he saw zero targets last week, and it wouldn’t be a total surprise if that continues), and with Homer seeing his touches limited (11 // 15 the last two games) but working in a more multi-faceted role (with target counts of eight and five the last two weeks). Lynch is a “bet on touchdowns” option, while Homer is a “bet on pass game work for floor, and hope a big play materializes for ceiling” play.

Although the Seahawks go out of their way to limit pass attempts (with Russell Wilson throwing the ball only 25 times when these teams met earlier in the year), this is a matchup — as we know by now — that tilts most opponents toward the air, while the Eagles have been productive enough on offense of late that there are clear paths to Russ and his pass catchers becoming viable options on this smaller slate. Russ hasn’t topped 300 yards since Week 9 (and at that point, he hadn’t topped 300 yards since Week 3), and in his last 10 games he has produced only one really useful fantasy score (in a true shootout against the vertical-minded Bucs). All this time, Russ has also continued to earn fairly high ownership, as so much of the fantasy community understands only matchup, rather than understanding game environment as well. Nevertheless, some Russ-focused rosters are very much in play here. As always, Russ-focused rosters should assume that the opponent is scoring enough to force the Seahawks to open up, which means that key Eagles pieces should be featured on such rosters in accordance with this bet.

It’s been a strange phenomenon, but — as explored throughout the season — Seattle pass catchers have also been fairly incapable of producing top-end scores without Russ doing the same himself, as this offense tends to spread around production enough that an individual pass catcher usually produces an elite score only if Russ also gets there. (To put all that another way: it has been highly profitable this year to only roster Seattle pass catchers if also rostering Russ.) Tyler Lockett has recent target counts of 6 // 9 // 7 // 7, while DK Metcalf has gone for 6 // 4 // 1 // 12 in this stretch — with both of these guys working primarily intermediate and deep. (Lockett is the more nuanced route-runner, though each has elements to his game that should play well in this matchup if the volume cooperates.) Jacob Hollister has seen recent target counts of 6 // 3 // 6 // 8, with most of his work coming close to the line of scrimmage — requiring a broken play or touchdowns in order to provide significant value. David Moore should wrap up this receiving corps, requiring a touchdown in order to stand out on this slate.

On the Eagles’ side, the pass game — with Zach Ertz appearing likely to miss another game — has been condensed to Dallas Goedert, Greg Ward, Josh Perkins, and the running backs (with Robert Davis operating as the number two receiver last week, but seeing only two targets, and with J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Deontay Burnett splitting WR3 duties at under 20% of the snaps apiece, with JJAW seeing zero targets and Burnett seeing four). Goedert saw 10 targets last week and will be facing a Seattle team that allowed the fourth most receptions and the second most yards to the tight end position. Perkins saw six targets of his own and should remain in what we could formerly have called the “Goedert role” (a role that yielded a low aDOT, but a consistent five to six targets with red zone work mixed in). Ward continues to be used in the short areas of the field — giving him a high floor, but requiring him to land a touchdown in order to go for ceiling. From a volume + price standpoint, all three of these guys are very much in play.

The running back situation is a bit more muddy, as Doug Pederson acknowledged after last week’s game that Jordan Howard might not have been fully healthy (i.e., it’s not necessarily a guarantee that Howard is stuck on the sidelines the entire game in this one), while Miles Sanders is on track to suit up for this game — which would set him up as the lead back here, but would also leave the door open to a committee approach with Boston Scott as Sanders battles through his low-ankle sprain. The good news is that the running back position has become a featured piece in recent weeks for the ailing Eagles (combined touch counts for Sanders/Scott of 35 // 38 // 34 // 35) — opening the door for one or the other to post an elite price-considered score each of the last four weeks. If Sanders is inactive, Scott becomes an elite role-driven option. If Sanders plays, you could approach this game assuming he is healthy and will dominate touches, or you could approach assuming that Sanders merely mixes in while Scott rises to the top.

JM’s Interpretation ::

The “Interpretation” section this week blends all four games, and can be found here. It is recommended that you read all four game writeups before reading the “Interpretation” section, as this will allow you to develop your own thoughts on this slate before comparing them against my own.

Playoff Contest Game Theory Breakdown ::

You can find Hilow’s tremendous Playoff Contest Game Theory Breakdown here.

Xandamere’s Showdown Notes ::

• The game with the most injury news. For now I’m going to assume that Miles Sanders is in and that Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor are out, but watch for updates (and I’ll try to address some “if/then” scenarios below).
• Russell Wilson has a high ceiling but a surprisingly low floor for a QB of his caliber. 
• Seattle is such a run-focused team, but don’t discount the possibility that they change things up here in the playoffs against the pass funnel Philly defense. It isn’t the most likely scenario, but it’s not impossible that the Seahawks recognize the matchup and come out throwing from the start.
• We might finally have clarity at the Seattle WR3 spot as everyone besides David Moore is hurt. Of course, John Ursua could get involved at minimum salary…but if Moore plays a full complement of snaps, he is woefully underpriced at $3k.
• Travis Homer out-snapped Marshawn Lynch 67% to 31% and has 13 targets in the last two weeks. He also gained 6.2 yards per carry on his 10 carries compared to 2.8 for Lynch (on 12 carries). At similar prices I think it’s a no-brainer to prioritize Homer, especially in such a difficult run game matchup, and at $6,800 his floor seems awfully safe. 
• As is always the case for the Seattle receivers, Metcalf is the better floor bet, Lockett has the better ceiling. As JM has noted and as we’ve seen in showdown writeups as well, Russ almost always outscores his receivers, making Seattle receivers thin captain choices unless you’re hoping for a significant outlier or just as a price play (which is more viable with a cheapie like Moore than someone like Lockett or Metcalf, who are priced close to Russ).
• On the Philly side, they’ve given their running backs over 30 touches per game due to their myriad of receiver injuries, as JM examined in his game writeup. More than one running back is viable here, though the challenge here is that Jordan Howard’s level of health and role are something of a mystery. Given how well Sanders and Scott have performed, it’s hard to imagine Howard usurping both of them, but he does make an interesting cheap contrarian play (especially if we get positive news around his health and/or workload prior to the game).
• Goedert is, obviously, the safest and highest upside receiver on the Eagles.
• Greg Ward is a high floor play but overpriced for his ceiling (especially compared to Goedert), but ownership will also reflect this in tournaments.
• Beyond those two, Joshua Perkins is my favorite Philly pass catcher, as he played more snaps and saw more pass volume last week than JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Robert Davis, or Deontay Burnett. Davis is (a fairly distant) second to me in the hierarchy there, with Burnett third (two catches on four targets last week but only 20% of the snaps) and JJAW fourth. 
• With so many viable cheap plays, my kicker exposure will be lower than normal in this one as it’s highly likely that at least one of the cheap receivers outscores the kickers.

Some groups to consider:

• At most 1 kicker
• At most 1 defense
• Pair captain receivers with their QB
• Pair captain Wentz with at least 2 receivers and captain Russ with at least 1 receiver
• At most 2 Philly running backs
• At most 1 of the Davis/Burnett/Perkins/JJAW group
• At most 1 of Moore and Ursua