XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 9 kicks off with the Titans visiting the Steelers for a whopping 36.5 total game in which Pittsburgh is favored by 2.5 points. Lots of fun island games this year. We have some impactful questionable tags here as all of Ryan Tannehill, Kenny Pickett, DeAndre Hopkins, and Derrick Henry are Q tagged, but based on what I can find, it looks like all but Tannehill will be playing and that’s how I’m going to write this one up. 

Pittsburgh

We’ll start with the Steelers and their run game. On the one hand, they’re home favorites, but on the other hand, their backfield is led by Najee Harris. Najee is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry, and the massive volume he had in his rookie season has evaporated, averaging just 12 carries and two targets per game so far in the 2023 season as Jaylen Warren has eaten into his role significantly. This is now a split backfield, with Najee just barely in the lead (230 offensive snaps on the season vs. 196 for Warren). In a not great matchup against a Titans D that has long been solid against the run, it’s hard to get excited about playing Najee. It’s worth noting that the last three teams to face the Titans (Colts, Ravens, and Falcons) have all found rushing success with at least 139 rushing yards. It could be the case that the Titans run D is springing some leaks. Even so, Najee is a shaky play at best, only really in play because it’s Showdown and because running backs with goal line roles always have the chance of finding their way to big games if things break right for them in the red zone. While Warren has fought his way to a near even split in snaps, Najee does still have the goal line role, with four carries inside the 10 yard line against just a single one for Warren. The case for Najee, in a nutshell, is that “he’s cheap for a home favorite running back and he could score a touchdown.” Which is true. Warren’s passing game role is more significant, with roughly 4.5 targets per game, giving him a better chance at an optimal score without a touchdown. The Steelers offense has been so bad this season that the highest running back score they’ve generated is 15.8 points from Najee in Week 7, otherwise, the top score is 12.6 from Warren in Week 2. Those are the only two scores you’d feel reasonably confident about making it into a winning lineup unless we end up with a very low scoring game (a distinct possibility in this one). 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, George Pickens and Diontae Johnson are the premier pieces here, with Diontae having a safer floor due to consistently strong volume while Pickens is more volatile but has a stronger ceiling. Last week was Diontae’s first game as a full time receiver this season and he saw a huge 14 targets (but still didn’t get a touchdown. The curse continues). Against a Titans defense that is easier to attack through the air, Diontae looks like the premier on-paper play on the Steelers side of things, and the price is right at just $8,400. Pickens at $8,800 is just as good of a play albeit with a wider range of outcomes. They will both be popular, but based on how the Steelers volume is distributed, there is a very strong chance that one or both end up in the optimal lineup. If you’re the kind of DFS player who is willing to commit hard to a small core of players, an “at least 1” rule here is reasonable. Behind these two main guys, we’ll see Allen Robinson run around out of the slot, some Calvin Austin in a WR4 role that has upside, and Miles Boykin playing a snap here and there. Robinson is a “hope to get lucky” play, as after a promising start to the season in which he was very involved in the offense with an eight and a nine target game in the first five weeks of the season, he has all but disappeared now that Diontae is healthy with just one target in each of the last two games. He’s still on the field for over 60% of the snaps, and while he’s never going to be the highest in the pass catcher pecking order, it’s reasonable to think he can still have some useful games (in Showdown, at least) throughout the year. At $2,200, he’s risky based on his recent usage with Diontae healthy, but I’d rather invest in a punt play that’s on the field for 60% of the snaps than one who’s on the field for 20% of the snaps. And speaking of 20%, hi Calvin Austin, whose role has diminished enormously with Diontae healthy. Austin is the polar opposite of Robinson – on the field a lot less but can do a lot more with a single target. They aren’t really using him as a deep threat (outside of his one giant 72 yard touchdown in Week 3), but he’s the kind of guy who can generate broken plays, at least more so than Robinson, who at this point in his career is more of a catch and fall down kind of receiver. 

At tight end, Connor Heyward appears to be seizing the TE1 role, playing 73% of the snaps last week against just 15% for Darnell Washington (relevant because for the first five weeks of the season, Washington outsnapped Heyward). In the last three weeks, as his role has grown, Heyward has seen four, three, and six targets, while Washington’s snaps have plummeted and he has seen just two targets in those same three games. Rodney Williams is also playing a few snaps as the TE3 and has yet to catch a ball. Washington and Williams are both very thin punt options, while Heyward is a solid play at his modest $2,800 salary. Of the Pittsburgh cheap guys, Heyward is clearly the top on-paper option, followed by Robinson, then Austin. 

Tennessee

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

We have our first game of the year in Germany and the second in NFL history! Sadly for the main slate, it involves two of the NFL’s best offenses, but that means this should be a fun Showdown if you’re up early enough for it. This game boasts a strong 50.5 total with the Chiefs favored by 2.5. High total, close spread . . . sounds like a shootout! We don’t have a single meaningful questionable tag on the offenses outside of Hilow’s boy Durham Smythe, so we can feel well-prepared for this one ahead of Sunday.

Kansas City

On the Chiefs side of things, Isiah Pacheco keeps being chalk on main slates but has only delivered a GPP-worthy score once this season because the Chiefs just don’t pound the ball on the ground all that aggressively and they pass a ton when they get in close to the end zone (total of 12 running back rush attempts inside the 10 yard line against 24 pass attempts). But, Showdown is a different beast, where it’s at least possible that a mid-teens score (which Pacheco has reached in five of eight games) at least has a chance of being optimal. My general perception of the Chiefs is that people don’t know who to play outside of Mahomes and Kelce, and so they just plop in Pacheco because he’s on an elite offense and the rest of the pass catchers aren’t really clear. In Showdown, that approach works better than on main slates. Pacheco’s a fine play whose risk is baked into his $8,600 price, lower than we normally see for an RB1 in Showdown. He’s not someone I’m particularly excited to play so he isn’t a core “lock it in” option for me but he’s not an avoid, either. I’ll probably end up a bit underweight of what I expect to be around 35-40% ownership. Behind him is Jerick McKinnon, whose role has collapsed this year. McKinnon is on the field a fair bit but is averaging roughly 2.5 carries and 2.5 targets per game. His designed red zone role from late last season has also vanished with just two targets inside the 10. He’s a hard sell unless you think he lucks into a touchdown (but note that with Mecole Hardman back on the Chiefs, McKinnon’s designed red zone role is unlikely to re-emerge – Hardman had it last year until he got hurt, and now Kadarius Toney also gets some of that kind of usage). RB3 Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a thin MME punt option who could see some extra work if the Chiefs win in a blowout (he had 16 opportunities in Week 3 against the Bears in a 41-10 victory, but otherwise has had just 17 carries in six targets in the Chiefs other seven games). 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, we’ll start with tight end because that’s where the Chiefs offense starts. Travis Kelce is a monster. Even at 34 years old he just isn’t slowing down, averaging 10 targets per game with no fewer than eight in any contest. Kelce is averaging 83 receiving yards per game and has four touchdowns in seven games. The dude’s awesome. The trick is that there are a lot of studs on this slate, and they’re all awesome in a vacuum but we can’t play all of them (we’ll get to how to think about them as a group a little later). Week 8 marks an interesting occasion for the Chiefs as it’s the first week that talented rookie Rashee Rice led the wide receivers in snaps played and he’s already leading them in targets. In fact, let’s take a quick moment to break out all of the Chiefs wide receiver targets on the year:

• Rashee Rice: 39 for a 30/361/3 line
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling: 21 for a 12/227/1 line
• Skyy Moore: 27 for a 14/168/1 line
• Justin Watson: 20 for a 12/261/0 line
• Kadarius Toney: 27 for a 19/109/1 line
• Mecole Hardman: 5 for a 4/19/0 line (in two games with the Chiefs)
• Justyn Ross: on the exempt list after being arrested

The Chiefs have been tough the last couple of years because they haven’t really had a WR1 since Tyreek Hill left town, and while Rice’s usage is still clearly below what we really want to see from a WR1, he clearly looks like an ascending player. On the one hand, $6,800 is a lot to pay for a guy averaging about five targets per game. On the other hand, they’re high quality targets from one of the league’s best quarterbacks, and I’d expect that by the end of the season, he’s averaging more like 6-8 targets per game. It’s possible the field views him as overpriced, and also that the mid-range of salary gets overlooked a bit because people want to jam in guys like Kelce, Hill, Mahomes, and Tua, and then use value plays to make it fit, which means we could see Rice come in underowned (I’d say anything under 30% is a nice ownership discount). The rest of this group is a mishmash – it’s hard to ever X out a receiver on the Chiefs, but I think we can smartly rank how to distribute exposure amongst them. MVS at $4,800 is the easiest avoid to me as he’s averaging under three targets per game and yet is the second most expensive WR on the team. He’s highly reliant on catching a touchdown bomb to hit, and while that’s possible, he doesn’t get a lot of targets and he also isn’t very good, which means pretty long odds. Toney’s price is being propped up by his brand name but with about three targets per game for a minuscule 5.7 yards per catch, yikes; he’s also one of the weaker options. Moore and Watson are stronger plays as they have similar volume and output to MVS and Toney, but come at much cheaper prices (Moore has the same targets but about 60 more receiving yards than Toney and is just $1,800, while Watson has more receiving yards than MVS on one fewer target but is just $1,400 because he hasn’t caught a touchdown). Hardman is a wild card – he hasn’t been used much yet, but I expect him to grow towards the role he had on the Chiefs last year, where he played roughly half the offensive snaps and had heavy red zone involvement which led to six touchdowns scored in his eight games played. Will he get to that point this week? I don’t know, but that’s where I think he’s going to end up, making him a viable tournament play. There’s also another tight end on the roster named Noah Gray who also has 21 targets on the year for a 15/180/1 line. At $600, he’s very viable as well. Good lord, I hate the Chiefs in Showdown. 

Miami

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• This game features two teams with .500 records that have had an up-and-down first half of the season but are both in the thick of the playoff hunt.
• Both teams will have new starting quarterbacks for this game, with the Vikings starting rookie Jaren Hall and the Falcons starting journeyman Taylor Heinicke.
• The Falcons pass defense is the only area between the two defenses that ranks outside the top 12 in the NFL.
• There are a plethora of offensive weapons on both sides of the ball, giving this game more upside than what you would expect from a game with a Vegas-implied total of only 37.
• The Vikings defense has the highest blitz rate in the NFL.

How minnesota Will Try To Win ::

The Vikings started this season off very poorly, losing their first three games and being put in a position where many people were suggesting they bench Kirk Cousins, tank the season, and try to draft a stud quarterback in the 2024 draft. They answered the call, however, and won four of their next five games to fight their way back into playoff contention and a .500 record. As fate would have it, they will end up playing this year without Cousins anyway after he tore his Achilles in their convincing Week 8 win over the Packers. In the aftermath of the Cousins injury, the Vikings have expressed their confidence in rookie quarterback Jaren Hall but also obtained Josh Dobbs from the Cardinals in a trade before Tuesday’s deadline. The Vikings have already announced that Hall will start this week as Dobbs gets adjusted and learns the playbook, but we have no word yet on whether or not Dobbs will be active.

The Vikings passing offense to date has been explosive and impressive, ranking 12th in the NFL in DVOA despite playing three games without arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL (Justin Jefferson). They also rank fourth in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE), showing their aggressive nature under second year head coach Kevin O’Connell. Now down their star wide receiver AND top-12 NFL QB (yes, it’s true), it is highly likely we see a different offense at least in the short term. Jaren Hall is a fifth round rookie quarterback out of BYU who drew praise from teammates and coaches for how he stepped in last week and most notably how he led and played with poise. He did have one turnover in his short time on the field, but kept it together and got the Vikings out of Lambeau with a win. Highly respected NFL Draft analyst Lance Zierlien had this to say about Hall in his NFL.com pre-draft prospect analysis:

“An undersized pocket quarterback with unimpressive arm strength, Hall’s field command gives him a shot to make it at the next level. He throws with excellent ball placement to targets on the move and delivers a feathery soft deep ball with accuracy. His lack of drive velocity creates smaller margins for error and his timing needs to be impeccable to beat NFL man coverage. Hall operates with ideal poise from the pocket. He does an adequate job of reading coverages and getting rid of the ball without taking sacks. The size and arm strength will concern some teams, but offenses operating out of heavy play-action with levels-based route concepts could target him as a solid future backup.”

We can almost certainly expect the Vikings to have a more balanced game plan in Hall’s first start as they try to manage the game around his limitations. This is a chess match, however, and the Falcons will know that and are likely to load the box and bring pressure – forcing Hall to prove he can beat them. Hall has the luxury of two elite playmakers in tight end TJ Hockenson and rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison. Hall’s touch on deep balls that was noted in his pre-draft write-up will be key, and they will likely dial up a couple of shots to Addison, as the Falcons will almost certainly dare him to beat them deep the same way they dared Will Levis to do so for the Titans. The difference here is that Hall does not have close to the same arm strength or size as Levis, making it less likely that he’s able to burn them the way they did last week. After playing in several shootouts to start the season, Vikings games have failed to reach 40 total points in four of the last five weeks. Their defense has been improving and the Falcons offense has been struggling, meaning that the Vikings will almost certainly be focused on once again winning the turnover and field position game while protecting their young quarterback. In the passing game, they may have to involve their running backs and secondary wide receivers, KJ Osborn and Brandon Powell, more this week as they look for ways to move the ball down the field as the Falcons defense shrinks things on their running game and keys in on Hockenson and Addison.

How atlanta Will Try To Win ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY HILOW >>

• Gus Edwards managed a full practice on Thursday after a ‘DNP’ Wednesday, meaning he should be good to play on Sunday through a toe injury.
• Tyler Lockett went from ‘DNP’ on Wednesday to limited on Thursday while DK Metcalf went from full participant on Wednesday to ‘DNP’ on Thursday.
• Seahawks HC Pete Carroll has made a point of singling out rookie RB Zach Charbonnet in both press conferences this week – not exactly actionable intel, but worth mentioning nonetheless, particularly because Week 8 was the first game all season that the rookie out-snapped the incumbent this season.
• The Ravens lead the league in points allowed per game (15.1) and have given up just three rushing scores and six passing scores this season.

How SEATTLE Will Try To Win ::

The Seahawks continue to be a team looking to shorten games, doing little to put teams away before the fourth quarter, where they look to fundamentals and defensive prowess to wear their opposition down over time. It’s hard to argue against the way they approach winning games with them now in control of the division, even if it requires a bit of variance to work in their favor. Seattle ranks 12^th in overall pace of play at 28.2 seconds per play and 10^th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) under offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, a slight departure from previous seasons. As we’ve covered throughout the season, the Seahawks prefer to utilize elevated rates of 12-personnel via Noah Fant, Colby Parkinson, and Will Dissly, only increasing their 11-personnel rates should the game environment dictate a more pass-heavy approach. What has been most different in 2023 when compared to previous seasons is the offense’s tendency to lean fully into the pass if the matchup suggests that to be the easiest way to move the ball. In other words, the Seahawks are actively looking to exploit the matchup presented by their opponents, as evidenced by their extreme PROE last week against the Browns, as opposed to previous seasons, where they simply attempted to do one thing really, really well (run the football).

Week 8 marked the first game this season where Charbonnet (59 percent) out-snapped incumbent lead back Walker (41 percent). Even so, Walker saw 10 running back opportunities to just seven for Charbonnet, likely influenced by the Seahawks’ most pass-heavy game plan this season against the Browns. This comes a week after Walker saw 29 running back opportunities against the hapless Cardinals with Charbonnet out of the lineup, meaning it isn’t enough data to call a trend just yet. It’s much more likely that the pass-heavy game plan against a tough opponent tilted the snaps a bit more in favor of the rookie. Even so, that discussion bears noting against a Ravens defense that ranks fifth in DVOA against the run but first against the pass, allowing 4.1 yards per carry and 1.35 yards before contact compared to an elite 4.2 net yards per attempt through the air. If we view Waldron as the offensive mind that will tailor his game plan to the opponent, we should expect a more run-balanced attack in this spot. To me, that is likely to lead to Walker as the primary backfield body after a week of sparse usage. Even with the Ravens easier to attack on the ground, this is still a defense allowing the fewest points per game (15.1) and just three rushing scores this season.

Considering the likeliest path of attack (run-balanced), we should expect inflated rates of 12-personnel from the Seahawks based on previous tendencies. That should serve to limit the snap rates of all primary pass-catchers, most notably rookie slot man Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The obvious caveat with that statement is the uncertainty surrounding the game-day statuses of Lockett (improving practice trend) and Metcalf (troubling practice trend). Furthermore, the team elected to make a one-for-one swap to Jake Bobo on the perimeter as opposed to drastically increasing Smith-Njigba’s involvement in the offense when Metcalf missed Week 7. The Ravens have run top-10 rates of man coverage this season, as their secondary has enjoyed relative health (after three years of terrible injury variance), against which Metcalf leads the team in targets-per-route-run rate by a wide margin (elite 37.5 percent). That said, neither of the team’s primary options jumps off the page from an efficiency standpoint against man this season, with Metcalf putting up 0.52 fantasy points per route run against man (25^th) and Lockett managing just 0.44 fantasy points per route run against man (35^th), per PFF. Last week, against the man-heavy Browns, Lockett led the team in receiving while going 8/81/1 on nine targets while Metcalf managed an inefficient 5/67/0 line on 14 targets. So while they combined to account for a 62.2 percent team target market share against heavy man utilization, their combined efficiency proved the modest marks through half the season against man. 

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY hilow >>

• Clayton Tune is expected to draw the start for the Cardinals with Kyler Murray not yet ready and Josh Dobbs traded to the Vikings.
• David Njoku picked up an ankle injury in Week 8 and did not practice on Wednesday.
• Kyler Murray was a full participant in practice on Wednesday and Thursday but is reportedly going to require another week before he draws the start for the Cardinals.
• Deshaun Watson was limited Wednesday and Thursday as he works his shoulder back into game shape – Dorian Thompson-Robinson was second in line for quarterback snaps behind Watson in Thursday’s practice, but the team still lists P.J. Walker as the direct backup.
• Donovan Peoples-Jones was dealt at the deadline.
• James Conner is in the final week of his IR stint, meaning another week of Emari Demercado and Keaontay Ingram leading the backfield.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

The Cardinals have been reduced to a shell of the roster that started the season, and they already enter Week 9 with the worst record in the league. Furthermore, the schematic mastery that had suppressed offensive production against them during the first month of the season has fully worn off, with teams able to move the football seemingly at will of late. The Cardinals are all the way down at 26^th in the league in total offense allowed (355.8 yards per game) and have allowed 26.6 points per game through eight weeks (27^th). They have played with pace (fourth-ranked 27.2 seconds per play) with the highest rush rate over expectation (RROE) in the league. Expect more of the same for as long as they are able considering the rookie quarterback and difficult matchup.

Emari Demercado split time with Keaontay Ingram in the first game without Conner, took on an elite workload in the second game without Conner (80 percent snap rate), and then settled back into a typical lead-back snap rate in the third game without Conner (55 percent). Demercado is clearly the leader of the backfield in the absence of Conner, but carries a wide range of outcomes as far as how involved we expect him to be, and the matchup is far from ideal against a Cleveland defense allowing 4.0 yards per carry and ceding just 1.21 yards before contact this season. Demercado is not a zero in the pass game, but he has more than one target in just one game of the previous three played without Conner. This is a fairly imposing spot, any way you slice it.

The Cardinals shifted to a heavier rate of 11-personnel in their first game without tight end Zach Ertz in Week 8, which could also be attributable to the negative game environment they encountered against a solid Ravens team. Second-year tight end Trey McBride saw a solid 82 percent snap rate in that game, joining Marquise Brown and Michael Wilson as near-every-down pass-catchers. Rondale Moore continues to play almost exclusively from the slot in a short-area role, while Greg Dortch was inactive for the first time this season in Week 8. That left Zach Pascal, Elijah Higgins, and Andre Baccellia to split the remaining crumbs of leftover snaps amongst pass-catchers. The Browns play the highest rate of man coverage alignments on defense this season (46.5 percent), against which only Brown carries a targets-per-route-run rate over just 14 percent this season (33.9 percent). Per PFF, Brown ranks seventh in fantasy points per route run (0.72) against man coverage and holds the sixth-highest receiving grade against that primary coverage (89.2). Wilson has performed well against zone this season but carries a putrid 3.8 percent target rate against man.

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Rams QB Matthew Stafford suffered a UCL injury to his throwing thumb in Week 8 and did not practice to start the week. I am no expert on UCL injuries, so I’ll have to defer to actual doctors here – most Twitter docs (I know) have Stafford as likely out until Week 11.
• The Rams tried to sign John Wolford off the Buccaneers practice squad, who then turned them down and was signed to the active roster in Tampa Bay. That whole situation was practice squad comedic gold. Los Angeles then signed some dude named Dresser Winn because the only other quarterback on the roster, or practice squad, was backup Brett Rypien.
• The Rams did sign RB Darrell Henderson to the active roster after two straight games as a game-day call-up.
• The Packers had just five players limited in practice on Wednesday and nobody listed as ‘DNP,’ but are still struggling with injuries on the defensive side of the ball with Darnell Savage and Eric Stokes on injured reserve.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Rams rank near the middle of the pack in seconds per play (28.4), but we know them to be a team that would prefer to play slow and methodical. They started the season in the top 10 in pass rate over expectation, but three consecutive strong rush rate over expectation showings against the Cardinals, Steelers, and Cowboys have them near the middle of the pack. Considering the matchup, the state of the team, and the status of quarterback Matthew Stafford, I think it’s likely we will see a third straight game with an emphasis on the ground game against a Packers team that has struggled with opposing rushing attacks under defensive coordinator Joe Barry. Brett Rypien has three starts in his professional career, all of which came as a member of the Broncos. Last season, he had two touchdown passes, four interceptions, and fumbles (one lost) in four appearances, two of which were starts.

At minimum, Kyren Williams will miss another two games, which leaves the backfield in the hands of Darrell Henderson (who was signed to the active roster this week) and Royce Freeman. Myles Gaskin was active in Week 8 for the first time as a member of the Rams but didn’t see any offensive snaps. Freeman has been the better back from an efficiency standpoint, running laps around Henderson-the-Plodder (I’m pretty sure he dressed up as a Viking for Halloween) and took over the backfield opportunities in the second half of the team’s Week 8 loss to the Cowboys. The Rams were down 33-9 at the half, so that could be a case of getting the better pass-catching back on the field due to game environment, but Henderson is a fine pass-blocker in his own right, which made the usage confusing to me. Either way, both backs shared the field at a near-even split after Henderson saw almost 60 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 7. I would expect the Rams to start the game with Henderson in the bruiser role while Freeman handles the change of pace role and obvious passing downs, with the situation fluidly dependent on game environment. The matchup is mostly a net positive on paper (Rams sixth in run DVOA against Packers’ 24^th-ranked run DVOA, middling 1.32 net yards before contact, 4.1 yards per attempt for the Packers), which should allow the Rams to continue trying to eat up clock and field position through sustained and methodical drives.

The Rams run primarily from 11-personnel with Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Tutu Atwell, and Tyler Higbee all in near-every-down roles. Atwell and Higbee have combined to see just 20 targets over the previous three games with a single-game high of just seven looks, leaving the bulk of the passing usage for Kupp and Puka, injury attorneys at law. Both players have also been the primary pass-catchers for the Rams against zone coverages, which the Packers run at the sixth-highest rate in the league. Surprisingly enough, Puka holds the highest targets per route run for the Rams against zone coverage this season at 30.0 percent (23.7 percent for Kupp, and a laughable 15.2 percent rate for Tutu). The prevent nature of the Green Bay defense should lend itself well for the Rams to find success moving the ball through short-to-intermediate passing to Puka and Kupp. The quarterback situation means drives will likely have to be strung together instead of many deep shots. On that note, the Packers rank ninth in the league in YAC allowed due to their soft coverages and have forced opponents to a shallow 6.2 aDOT. That said, nothing in this matchup should prevent Puka and Kupp from seeing solid efficiency in this spot. 

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The two most important players to the Buccaneers offensive and defensive line returned to full practices on Thursday, Tristan Wirfs and Vita Vea.
• Texans RB Dameon Pierce and WR Robert Woods have yet to practice this week (as of Thursday).
• OT Laremy Tunsil returned to a limited sessions Thursday after missing Wednesday’s practice.
• Nico Collins and Tank Dell are once again set up well in this spot.
• Both teams present a pass-funnel matchup as far as the on-paper matchups are concerned.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

The Buccaneers have played with moderate pace (11^th-ranked 28.1 seconds per play) and find themselves in the top half of the league in pass rate over expectation, averaging a slightly below average 61.1 plays per game and a slightly above average 35.3 pass attempts per game. The 3-4 Bucs have dropped three in a row to the Lions, Falcons, and Bills after starting the season 3-1 and have already had their bye, but play in one of the worst divisions in the league leaving them just a half game back from the Falcons and Saints for the division lead. During this three-game downturn, they have averaged just 12.33 points per game, placing them near the bottom of the league in scoring for the season at 17.3 points per game (27^th). Expect a pass-balanced approach to start based on previous tendencies against an opponent that presents slight pass-funnel tendencies while utilizing zone coverages at a top 10 rate.

Rachaad White has become a true workhorse running back this season, handling the fifth highest snap share (77.5 percent) and 10^th highest opportunity share (70.5 percent). His yards per carry stands a putrid 3.3 (53^rd) while his yards per touch is a non-elite 4.4, so it hasn’t been pretty, but the volume has been there with 13.1 carries and 4.3 targets per game (similar workload to D’Andre Swift in Philadelphia). The matchup is far from ideal against a Texans defense holding opponents to 3.6 yards per carry and 1.20 yards before contact, so expect another game of muted efficiency and tough sledding on the ground. Chase Edmonds was active in Week 8 for the first time since Week 2 and immediately usurped Ke’Shawn Vaughn for the change of pace role, which likely speaks more to Vaughn’s inability to lock down the role than it does to Edmonds’ abilities on the field. What that should serve to do is strengthen White’s hold on the workhorse role.

The Buccaneers play almost exclusively from 11-personnel on offense, with Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Cade Otton near every-down pass-catchers and rookie wide receiver Trey Palmer working his way into an 80 percent plus role. Deven Thompkins and Rakim Jarrett are on hand for situational roles, each primarily held to under 30 percent of the offensive snaps. The Texans are in zone coverages at the eighth highest rate this season, against which Evans and Godwin are the two primary contributors. Actually, those two are the two primary contributors against all coverages, with Evans leading the way with a 25.9 percent targets per route run rate, 23.3 percent team target market share, and a healthy 13.3 aDOT. Evans is ranked in the top 10 in fantasy points per route run against both man and zone this season, while Godwin ranks eighth in fantasy points per route run against man but 51^st against zone. The matchup sets up well for Evans to once again be the clear and away top option. Palmer has a modest 9.3 percent targets per route run rate against zone coverages while Otton holds modest marks in target market share (12.3 percent), targets per route run rate (12.2 percent), and aDOT (5.8).

How houston Will Try To Win ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY PAPY324 >>

• This game features one of the highest-tempo teams in the league (Pats) and one of the pass-heaviest teams in the league (Commanders). 
• No one on either side of the ball is priced above $6,000 on DK.
• 5-foot-8 6^th round rookie Demario Douglas is currently projected to serve as the Pats No. 1 WR.
• The Commanders traded away DEs Montez Sweat and Chase Young, primarily hurting their pass rush, but their run defense as well. 
• The Commanders passing game has been boom or bust this year, creating a wide range of DFS outcomes for this game.
• The most likely scenario is a low-scoring game with a lot of inefficient plays, but it is possible this game becomes more exciting than the total would indicate.

How WASHINGTON Will Try To Win ::

The 3-5 Commanders limp into Week 9 fresh off division losses against the Eagles and Giants. Ron Rivera’s team started the season with two wins but has gone 1-5 since, only beating the Falcons in a close game. The mood of management was on display this week when they traded two former first-round picks in Sweat and Young. The Commanders are still publicly saying they care about this season, but freeing cap space ($90 million available) and stockpiling draft picks (three in the top 50) tips their hand that 2023 has become a throwaway season. The Commanders management might not be trying “to win”, but the coaching staff’s jobs are always on the line, which means you can bet Ron Rivera will still be trying to keep his team believing that this year matters. The Commanders quietly have the highest pass play rate in the league (72%) under new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. They have the second-highest Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), only a tick behind the Chiefs.

The Commanders are throwing because passing is their new offensive philosophy, not because they are typically chasing points in negative game scripts. The Commanders O-line hasn’t been great this year (19th-ranked unit per PFF), but they got back guard Chris Paul (no, not that one) and center Tyler Larsen last week against the Eagles. They did a relatively good job against Philly’s fierce rush, only allowing 14 pressures on 55 dropbacks. There is reason to believe the Commanders O-line is trending up as a pass-protecting unit. The Patriots defense has been good against the run (seventh in DVOA) but has seen its pass defense (18^th in DVOA) slip after losing star rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez. The Patriots prefer to lean on man coverage, which makes losing a shutdown corner hurt even more. The Commanders were going to pass anyway, but the Patriots being weaker through the air sets up perfectly for another pass-heavy game plan. Expect Bieniemy to stick with what he knows, which is slinging the rock all over the field.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Bears held a Wednesday walkthrough after playing Sunday Night Football in Week 8.
• On Wednesday, Justin Fields remained a ‘DNP’ on the team’s projected injury report.
• The Saints are relatively healthy at the moment, with just LB Ty Summers and WR Lynn Bowden Jr listed as ‘DNP’ Wednesday, neither of whom are starters.
• Chicago somewhat confusingly dealt a second-round pick to the Commanders for DE Montez Sweat at the trade deadline Tuesday.
• Both teams averaged a middling 21.4 points per game this year.

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

The Bears have to be playing for the future at this point, particularly considering they currently have a greater than 50 percent chance to have two of the top five picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. That makes the recent trade with the Commanders for DE Montez Sweat that much more confusing, made even more head-scratching by the post-trade reports that the Bears didn’t have a solid plan in place to extend the elite pass rusher after his contract expires at the end of the 2023 season. Either way, Chicago currently sits at a 2-6 record, one game ahead of the NFL-worst Cardinals and 0.5 games ahead of the Panthers (Chicago owns Carolina’s 2024 first). As for how this team is built this year, things haven’t been as terrible as their record would leave you to believe. Matt Eberflus took over defensive play-calling this offseason and has this team performing extremely well against the run. If I told you that the Bears currently lead the league in yards allowed per rush and have surrendered just four rushing scores all season, you’d likely call me a liar (before checking for yourself and getting owned). They have, however, been absolutely gashed through the air to the tune of a 6.9 net yards per pass attempt value (third worst) and the second most touchdowns allowed, likely hamstrung by an inability to generate pressure in the backfield (second lowest pressure rate this season at 16.6 percent, ahead of only the Broncos – and that comes with a slightly above average 24.5 percent blitz rate). From a top-level offensive perspective, the Bears play with modest pace (19^th-ranked 28.7 seconds per play) with extreme rush rates (third highest rush rate over expectation.

Poor offensive efficiency has held the Bears to 62.9 plays per game, which has, in turn, kept their rushes per game to 29.1. A season after leading the league with 5.4 yards per rush attempt, the Bears rank fifth at 4.6 behind an offensive line blocking to 1.57 yards before contact, third best in the league. Rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent has just seven carries through two starts, leaving a larger share of the rush attempts to the backfield compared to starts with Justin Fields under center. Even so, the return to the lineup of rookie running back Roschon Johnson forced a three-way split in the backfield in Week 8, reducing D’Onta Foreman’s snap rate to just 32 percent. Veteran journeyman Darrynton Evans has seen between 27 and 48 percent snap rates since Kahlil Herbert was placed on injured reserve. The matchup on the ground is far from ideal against a New Orleans defense holding opponents to 1.19 yards before contact, 4.3 yards per carry, and just four rushing scores through the first half of the season. 

The Bears have utilized 12 personnel at a slightly above-average 29 percent since Herbert went down with an injury in Week 5, with Cole Kmet playing a near-every-down role and Robert Tonyan mixing in with Marcedes Lewis in a shared role. DJ Moore and Darnell Mooney operate as near-every-down wide receivers, with rookie Tyler Scott stepping into a standard slot snap rate of around 60 percent during the most recent three-game stretch. The Bears average 30.3 pass attempts per game on the season, 28^th in the league, which has increased slightly with Bagent under center to 33.0 over the previous two games. The Saints run man coverage at the fourth highest rate in the league (32.7 percent), against which only Moore and Kmet have an above-average receiving grade. Moore leads the team with a 20.3 percent targets per route run rate against man – not exactly elite, but not terrible at the same time.  

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Indianapolis continues to be a part of explosive game environments due to an aggressive offensive scheme and play calling along with a sub-par defense.
• Carolina finally won a game last week with a 15-13 victory in a pillow fight with the Texans.
• The Panthers run defense is the worst in the league by most metrics and faces one of the top rushing attacks in the league this week.
• This game has the second highest over/under on the Week 9 main slate.
• The Panthers came out of their Week 7 bye and had their lowest pass attempt total of the season, but improved efficiency.

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

The Colts have been a goldmine of fun and one of the lone bright spots in the NFL this year as scoring has been down across the board and we have been subjected to a lot of boring and sloppy football through the first half of the season. First year head coach Shane Steichen has opened things up and is playing an aggressive brand of football while creating explosive plays in both the running game and the passing game. He hasn’t pulled back since losing rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, either, allowing Gardner Minshew to sling it. That offensive aggressiveness combined with a shaky defense has made Indianapolis games a viewer’s delight, as six of their eight games have resulted in combined scores of more than 50 points. Their last three games had combined scores of 65, 77, and 57. 

Indianapolis ranks 30th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) but leads in pace of play. Their pass rate has also increased since Richardson left the lineup, as many of his designed run plays have turned into passes. The Colts also have two highly effective running backs in Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss, who have each provided explosive plays running behind PFF’s #4 ranked run blocking offensive line. This week they have a matchup against the league’s worst run defense in the Panthers. Carolina has been decimated on the ground by pretty much everyone, with the lone exception being last week against the Texans whose running game futility found a way to outmatch the ineptitude of Carolina’s run defense. Any team with a decent running game has simply had their way with the Panthers and the Colts have the scheme and talent to shove the ball down their throats. The Panthers pass defense isn’t much to write home about, either, and they especially have trouble from an efficiency standpoint against teams who are crushing them on the ground. Basically, they get hit so hard on the ground that they have no choice but to sell out and then get burned in the secondary. That recipe should fit right into the Colts approach as they will let Taylor and Moss take turns ripping off chunk runs and then let Minshew pick them apart on the back end.

How Carolina Will Try To Win ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY MIKE JOHNSON >>

• This game has the lowest implied total of the week.
• Giants quarterback Daniel Jones returns from a three-week absence due to a neck injury.
• Las Vegas enters this game with plenty of changes due to the departures of its head coach, offensive coordinator, and general manager.
• Rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell will get his second career start after the team announced they are benching Jimmy Garoppolo.
• The Raiders pass rush could pose problems for a Giants offensive line that has struggled with pass blocking.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

While everyone loves to pick apart teams and players on a one-week or recency basis, not nearly enough attention is paid to what is arguably one of the most important things to consider when evaluating: who did you play? It sounds fairly obvious and straightforward, but too many times we get caught up in what we see and lose sight of why we’re seeing it. The Giants were one of last year’s feel-good stories in the NFL, beating most people’s expectations and making it to the playoffs in head coach Brian Daboll’s first year with the team. They even won a road playoff game, going into Minnesota and knocking off the Vikings. Expectations were high coming off that season and the Giants have been disappointing, sitting with a 2-6 record through eight weeks. What happened to them? Has Daboll lost it?  If you take the time to look deeper at the circumstances around both last year and this year, however, it is quite clear that “who they played” is a critical component in this harsh fall back to reality. In 2022 the Giants benefitted from a very favorable schedule and had a lot of things break their way, including two wins in the last four weeks of the season against teams playing without their starting quarterback. Even their win over the Vikings was a bit misleading, as the Vikings were nowhere near as strong of a team as their record would have indicated. 

Flash forward to this year and the Giants started the season with a 1-5 record through six weeks, but their losses were against the Cowboys, 49ers, Seahawks, Dolphins, and Bills. All five of those teams are currently ranked in the top 10 of the NFL power rankings. The Giants also played three of those games without offensive centerpiece Saquon Barkley. The Giants then beat the Commanders with Tyrod Taylor under center before blowing an ugly game to the Jets in the rain last week when they were forced to play with third-string quarterback Tommy Devito and the team accumulated NEGATIVE NINE (-9) net passing yards over the course of the game. All of this is to say that the Giants get Jones back this week and this is the best  combination of matchup and health they have had since Week 2. Their defense struggled early in the year, but it has given up only 34 points in the last three weeks, including holding Josh Allen and the Bills to their lowest point total of the year (14). The Giants have played two full games this year with Jones and Barkley on the field – one was a decimation in the rain against the Cowboys on Opening Night and the other was, ironically, a road game also in the desert against the Cardinals where they had by far their best offensive performance of the year.

As for how the Giants will approach this game, the simple answer is they will get back to being themselves. Barkley is their offensive centerpiece and they will put Jones in manageable situations while allowing him to use his athleticism and looking to simplify his reads. The Giants may also be getting reinforcements on their offensive line, as starters Andrew Thomas and Evan Neal may be returning to the lineup. The Giants rank 29th in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), but that number will likely rise this week as they finally have the core of their offense back together. Jones has never been a superstar talent or a quarterback who does well against elite defenses, but he has proven repeatedly that he can put up points against middling or poor defenses. Las Vegas ranks 29th in run defense DVOA and 20th in pass defense DVOA and the Giants should have increased offensive success, especially if their linemen return. Barkley was given 41 opportunities last week, so clearly they think he’s healthy. Look for Saquon to be the engine of this offense and Jones to open things up a bit, with the Giants having a chance to give us a glimpse of their 2022 form.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• The Eagles have looked dominant for most of this season, while the Cowboys have had some struggles – but a Dallas win here would have these teams tied atop the NFC.
• Both teams have played a relatively modest strength of schedule, and this will be one of the toughest tests for both of them.
• Dallas finally opened up their play calling and were more aggressive through the air coming out of their Week 7 bye.
• Jalen Hurts had a season-low in rushing attempts and yards in Week 8 as he continues to recover from an apparent minor knee injury.
• The ability of the Dallas offense to apply pressure on the Eagles will be key in determining the game script.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

The Cowboys came out of their Week 7 bye throwing haymakers, jumping out to a 33-3 first-half lead over the Rams before coasting to a 43-20 victory. After a tumultuous first six weeks that featured an embarrassing 28-16 loss to the Cardinals and a humiliating 42-10 dominant performance by the 49ers, the Cowboys still entered their bye with a 4-2 record, thanks in large part to a relatively easy schedule. The list of starting quarterbacks the Cowboys have faced this season:

• Daniel Jones (W)
• Zach Wilson (W)
• Josh Dobbs (L)
• Mac Jones (W)
• Brock Purdy (L)
• Justin Herbert (W)
• Matthew Stafford (W – injured mid-game)

While quarterback play across the NFL is not necessarily at a high point, you can see how they have picked on some weak links en route to their current 5-2 record. Nonetheless, a win this week would put them on pace with the Eagles and continue to build off the momentum they created with last week’s convincing win over the Rams.

Head coach Mike McCarthy rightfully took a lot of heat for his conservative and run-heavy play calling to start the season but came out of their Week 7 bye firing. Dallas called ten pass plays on their game-opening touchdown drive and continued to be aggressive throughout the first half, ending on a five-play 63-yard touchdown drive that was entirely composed of pass plays and gave the Cowboys a 33-3 lead. There were a few Rams turnovers and mishaps that helped lead to the game being out of hand so quickly, but the Dallas offense had a noticeably different feel to it than we had seen before their bye week. Ceedee Lamb was finally featured, and he responded with a career-best game, showing he can be the true alpha wide receiver this team needs. This week’s matchup with the Eagles and their top-ranked run defense points to another spot where Dallas should be leaning heavily on Dak Prescott. The Cowboys tried to be a run-first team to start the season but entered Week 9 ranked 23rd in rushing offense DVOA. The Eagles have allowed season-best performances from Kirk Cousins, Sam Howell, and Mac Jones this season. The script absolutely calls for Dallas to spread the field and throw the football once again this week. Star running back Tony Pollard has struggled in a more traditional role this season, but the Cowboys may need to find ways to get him involved in the passing game in space (which suits his skill set better anyway) as the Eagles are sure to be keyed in on Lamb. The Eagles have a top-5 pass rush, and Dallas has had inconsistent offensive line play this season, furthering the chances that Pollard and the tight ends are featured on shorter passing game concepts. Ultimately, the Cowboys defense has proven to be most effective when playing with a lead, and Dallas will almost certainly have to approach this game with an aggressive mindset if they want to jump out ahead of the current top team in the NFL.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football has the Bills visiting the Bengals for a nice 50.5 total game with Cincinnati favored by 2.5. After the Bengals started off the season looking absolutely abysmal on offense due to Joe Burrow’s injured calf, they finally seem to have gotten it together the past three weeks as they’ve scored 34, 17, and 31 points with Burrow passing for eight touchdowns against just two interceptions. The most encouraging stat is that Burrow ran six times last week against the 49ers for 43 yards, which is more rushing yards than he’s had in their other six games combined. That more than anything else is a signal that he’s over his calf injury and should be back to normal. On the other side of things, we have a Bills offense that has been far less consistent than we’re used to seeing: they’ve scored 37 or more points three times, and then 25 or fewer points in every other game (including against such defensive juggernauts as the Jaguars and Bucs). Should be a fun game to try and figure out.

Cincinnati

On the Bengals side, Joe Mixon is one of the few bell cow backs left in the NFL, playing 70% or more of the offensive snaps in all but one game this year (and that was a blowout in which Cincinnati only scored three points). Because the Bengals are such a pass-heavy team, that hasn’t translated into enormous running back volume, but Mixon is averaging a very healthy 16 carries and roughly 3.5 targets per game. Not bad . . . and he’s $8k. He’s priced this cheap because he hasn’t really had any explosion games – no games over 100 rushing yards and just two touchdowns on the season so far. But with a role this robust, good games are coming. Against a Bills defense that has so far been extremely good against opposing passing attacks but more vulnerable on the ground, Mixon is a very strong play for his price assuming the Bengals don’t fall too far behind. Behind Mixon, Trayveon Williams has a small RB2 role and then Chris Evans is the passing down back except he’s only played over 10% of the snaps once this season. Evans is a very shaky dart throw, while Trayveon is too expensive for his workload as he’s averaging just two opportunities per game and would need an injury to Mixon to really have a chance at relevance. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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The passing game for the Bengals is also nicely condensed with Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, and Tee Higgins playing the bulk of the wide receiver snaps and hogging the vast majority of the production. Chase is an absolute stud about whom I can’t really write very much. $10,800 is a little on the cheap side based on where we’ve seen him historically, but all the studs are priced a bit down in this game compared to most Showdowns so we can’t really view him as being discounted. Chase vs. Diggs is obviously a major decision point in this one as they’re two of the league’s premier wide receivers, they have very similar production to this point in the season, and they’re priced just $200 apart. They’re both awesome plays, obviously, but I have a (slight) preference for Chase here – he’s averaging just over 12 targets per game while Diggs is at 11.25, and while their fantasy production has been very similar on a per-game basis, Chase’s numbers include several games in which Burrow looked injured, immobile, and rather hopeless. With a healthy Burrow, I think that gives Chase a small edge. Behind Chase, we have Tee Higgins, who has just fallen completely off the map this season. Higgins had a big Week 2 but otherwise has no more than eight targets, five catches, or 69 yards in any other game this season. He’s still plenty talented and as this offense gets back in gear now that Burrow is over his calf injury, it makes sense to think about him as a buy-low at just $6,600 (also applicable to season long fans out there!). Tyler Boyd runs mostly low-upside routes out of the slot, but he’s priced down to just $5,400 so he doesn’t need to get you to 100 yards in order to be relevant in tournaments. He falls under the “fine” category to me, but I think he has some inverse correlation with Higgins as Boyd’s best two games on the season have come in two of Higgins’ lowest snap count games. I’m fine playing them together but want to limit their pairings as I think if you believe Higgins is either just suddenly bad or maybe hiding some kind of injury or whatever it is that’s causing him to struggle, that boosts Boyd’s role in the offense. Trenton Irwin and Andrei Iosivas round out the wide receiver corps, with Irvin a non-crazy value option while Iosivas is a very thin punt play. 

At tight end, the Bengals went out and signed Irv Smith this season, who is a talented pass-catching tight end, but they have somewhat inexplicably refused to use him in the passing game (much to the dismay of my Best Ball teams). Smith only has 15 targets on the season (though he’s only played five games) and he’s only being used right around the line of scrimmage, averaging under six yards per catch so far. Yikes. At $1,600, he’s cheap enough to include in player pools, but he’s either going to need his role to change or find his way into the end zone in order to be relevant (and he only has two red zone targets on the year). Drew Sample and Mitchell Wilcox back up Smith, but are of course even thinner plays. This passing offense really revolves around Chase, and then Higgins and Boyd to a lesser extent, and everyone else is miles behind. 

Buffalo

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 9 wraps up with the Chargers visiting the Jets for a 39.5 total game with LA favored by 3.5 points. When was the last time we saw a Chargers game with a total under 40? Times in the NFL, they are a-changin’. The big injury news here is Josh Palmer is out while Allen Lazard popped up on the injury report on Saturday – beat news seems to indicate Lazard is likely to play, and that’s how I’ll write this one up, but make sure to double check that once inactives come out. 

New York

We’ll start with the Jets and get the painful part out of the way. Breece Hall appears fully back, playing 66% and 64% of the snaps the last two games while handling 17 and 21 running back opportunities (including 14 targets). Backup running backs Michael Carter and Dalvin Cook have five and six opportunities in those games, respectively. The matchup here is great against a Chargers defense that has been attackable on the ground for years, and it’s especially interesting for Breece because of his significant passing game role as LA has given up about nine targets and 55 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs (and they haven’t faced guys like Kamara or CMC – we’re talking guys like Alexander Mattison and Isaiah Pacheco here). It’s always terrifying saying that a Jet is a great play because he’s still attached to Zach Wilson’s offense, but everything really does line up for Breece here. He is, at the very least, the best skill position play on this side of the game. Carter and Cook are punt plays – and thin ones at that – unless something should happen to Breece. 

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The Jets passing game is also in an elite matchup against a Chargers D that has allowed the most passing yards per game (and it isn’t even close, they’re almost 20 over the next team). But let me offer you a counterpoint to the amazing matchup: Zach Wilson. Now, to be fair to Wilson, he has faced some really good defenses: Bills, Cowboys, Patriots, Chiefs, Broncos at home, Eagles, and Giants after they moved past some of their early-season struggles. Those are, overall, some really good defenses, creating a stoppable force against a movable object matchup. At just $8,800, it’s not unreasonable to think Wilson could have a good game, but it’s a scary click on a guy who’s only scored over 14.1 DK points once this season. At his price, he’s had one game in which he’s probably in the optimal lineup and one more in which he might be if the game is low-scoring. Of significantly more interest to me is his alpha receiver Garrett Wilson, who despite Zach’s struggles, has put up at least 14.4 DK points in five of seven games. Garrett is averaging just shy of 10 targets per game, good for an elite 31% market share of targets. He’s an excellent on-paper play and the expensive Jets are likely to go somewhat overlooked as people want to jam in Chargers (especially with Palmer out). Behind him things thin out quickly. Lazard will be on the field plenty, and then the WR3 role should mostly be filled by Randall Cobb, who will make his return from injury in this one. Cobb’s a bit of an odd guy on the team, though He was brought in by Aaron Rodgers, who is of course done for the season, and Cobb only has three catches on 12 targets this year. He could still resume his role, or, we could see some combination of Xavier Gipson and/or Malik Taylor take it over (Taylor is currently on the practice squad, watch to see if he gets elevated for the game). All of these guys are very thin, but if dipping down here, I’d personally lean into the variance side of things and play Gipson and hope that his role expands since Cobb has been a non-factor so far. 

At tight end, we’ll see Tyler Conklin lead the way with C.J. Uzomah and Jeremy Ruckert still playing meaningful snaps. Conklin is averaging about four targets per game against just one each for Uzomah and Ruckert, making Conklin look like a reasonable value option at $3k, while the others fall into the MME punt pile.

Los Angeles