DOLPHINS // TEXANS OVERVIEW

Following the game on Thursday night, one of these two teams will be sitting pretty at 5-3 — with the Dolphins jumping out to a surprise 4-3 record to start the year, and with the Texans reeling off four consecutive wins after their 0-3 start. Brock Osweiler and the Dolphins’ banged-up offense are not getting much respect from Vegas, as 7.5 point underdogs — traveling to Houston on a short week.

This game pairs two contrasting styles of play, as Houston ranks fourth in pace of play to Miami’s 30th. Each team runs the ball at an above-average rate (Miami is 20th in pass play rate; Houston is 23rd), and each team allows a (slightly) above-average number of opponent plays per game. Miami runs the second fewest plays per game, while Houston runs the sixth most plays per game. Miami has been poor at sustaining drives (27th in DSR) and has lived off the big play. Houston ranks sixth in drive success rate allowed, creating a tough spot for the Dolphins’ offense.

The one big edge Miami has is in the red zone. Their defense ranks seventh in red zone touchdown rate allowed, while the Texans rank 31st in red zone touchdown rate on offense.

DOLPHINS PASS OFFENSE

This is the big question mark, with Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills both out of action this week — leaving behind only underneath man Danny Amendola, gadget player Jakeem Grant, and disgruntled DeVante Parker — with Brock Osweiler at quarterback.

Given what we know about Adam Gase and his willingness to win ugly, we should expect a few things here:

1. We should expect the Dolphins to come into this game with four or five “outside the norm” plays (I don’t want to use the term “trick plays,” as that’s not exactly what I expect; but more “unusual looks and designs” that the Texans will not have seen before, in the hopes of throwing them off balance).

2. We should expect Miami to use extra motion and misdirection in this game, in the hopes of springing something free.

3. We should expect a run-leaning approach — even against a defense that ranks second in yards allowed per carry, compared to 12th in passing yards allowed per game.

Hopefully, we will also see Kenyan Drake involved more heavily in the pass game, but we’ll get to that in a moment.

In two games with Osweiler under center, Amendola has seen target counts of 11 and seven — good for a respectable 24% of the total passes thrown. While crazy things can happen in the NFL (see Kearse, Jermaine), we should expect him to soak up the bulk of the targets on the Dolphins this week — giving him a very safe floor. Amendola is averaging a lowly 9.5 yards per reception, so he’ll need a touchdown to make a big box score dent, but he’s as good a bet as anyone on this offense to push the ball into the end zone, and he has the most reliable workload on the team.

Albert Wilson (5’9″, 4.43 40 time) has seen most of his targets within five yards of the line of scrimmage — primarily with jet sweep action, slants, and wide receiver screens — and this is likely how the Dolphins will use Grant (5’6″, 4.34 40 time — though if you ask Texas Tech, they think he ran in the 4.1s (okay…)). Before getting injured last week, Wilson had seen target counts on the year of 5 // 5 // 2 // 6 // 6 // 9. Some guesswork is obviously required here, but the likeliest outcome is five to six targets for Grant — giving him a non-awful floor and big upside with the ball in his hands. It is worth noting that Houston ranks top eight in YAC allowed per reception.

Parker is a true wildcard in this spot. He wants out of Miami, and the Dolphins seem to want him out, so maybe both sides put on a showcase — with Parker bringing his “A” game, and with Miami trying to get him the ball. Absent that narrative, expectations would be more modest, though Miami has allowed Osweiler to attack downfield. Last week, nine of Brock’s passes traveled 15 or more yards, while four traveled 25+. Houston’s pass rush can make deep passing difficult, but their secondary is non-threatening, and it would make sense for Parker to see at least four to six targets this week, even on the low end of projections.

This passing attack wraps up with Mike Gesicki, who has two to five targets in each of his last five games. Gesicki is a talented, athletic, but raw rookie at a difficult position, and has not yet put it all together on the field — setting a “career high” last week with 44 yards, and failing to score on four red zone targets (with minus one yard on his two targets so far inside the 10). Houston has been a middling matchup so far this year for tight ends.

DOLPHINS RUN OFFENSE

In addition to running the second-fewest plays in the NFL, Miami has continued to split carries between Frank Gore and Drake, with Gore seeing touch counts over the last four weeks of 13 // 12 // 16 // 11, and with Drake responding with touch counts of 4 // 13 // 17 // 10. Only four of Gore’s touches in that stretch have been receptions, while Drake has hauled in 16 catches. Drake has three touches inside the 10-yard-line, to six such touches for Gore. Houston has been elite on the ground, allowing the second fewest yards per carry and only one rushing touchdown on the year, though they have been middle of the pack against pass-catching backs. It seems likely that Miami leans a bit more on Drake as this game moves along, giving him a shot at something like eight carries and four to six receptions.

TEXANS PASS OFFENSE

A Miami pass-rushing unit that has struggled early in the season (they entered last week ranked 29th in adjusted sack rate) will have a chance to get on track a bit against a Houston team that has taken the third most sacks in the league, but they could otherwise find themselves in trouble this week against DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, as they have been middling in both aDOT and catch rate allowed, and no team in the NFL has allowed more YAC per reception.

The best film for Houston to watch will be the Oakland and Cincy games against the Dolphins, where each team was able to spring their featured receiver free for some big gains (Jordy Nelson for Oakland; A.J. Green for Cincy) by running intermediate crossing routes moving from the left side of the field to the right. The extra traffic created with these routes was able to loosen coverage enough for each receiver to have a big game, and we should see a similar approach this week with DeAndre Hopkins. In spite of coverage from Xavien Howard, Green was able to post 6-112-0 in this matchup on 10 targets. Hopkins should see double-digit targets this week after dropping below that mark the last two weeks against Tre’Davious White and Jalen Ramsey.

Miami has not gotten hit for many downfield passes this year, but they have given up their fair share of big plays on short passes and yards after the catch. This is how the Lions attempted to use Golden Tate last week, and it is how the Patriots used Phillip Dorsett against Miami. Expect Hopkins to get some of these looks as well, but Fuller should be schemed a few wide receiver screens, and should also be used on short routes on the perimeter (same as he was used last week). He’ll have a shot at some big gains with the ball in his hands.

With Keke Coutee out again following an aggravation of his hamstring injury, targets should be concentrated on Hopkins and Fuller. Vyncint Smith (four targets on the year) will fill in, while RB/KR Tyler Ervin (two catches on the year) is expected to see some plays as well. Behind the wide receivers, the tight ends remain uninvolved, with Jordan Akins and Jordan Thomas combining for one target last week in the absence of Ryan Griffin, one week after Griffin goose-egged on five looks.

TEXANS RUN OFFENSE

Lamar Miller is not Kerryon Johnson, but this is still an above-average matchup for the Texans’ lead back. The Dolphins rank 22nd in yards allowed per carry, and only seven teams have allowed more touchdowns on the ground. The Dolphins have also allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game and the sixth-most running back receptions. Most of these receptions have come from teams attacking Miami’s slow linebackers with speed, but Miller does have recent target counts of 6 // 0 // 3 // 3, which adds a small boost to expectations. He has recent carry counts of 10 // 14 // 15 // 22, and we should expect 16 to 20 touches for him in this spot.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Nothing in this game pops out on the full-weekend slate, though Hopkins is a matchup-proof receiver who should post a solid score no matter what, and who has the upside to post the highest score on the slate even in a slower-paced game against a top corner. Fuller also carries nice upside, with solid floor. Games against Miami always carry pace and play volume concerns, so layer in some added risk if considering them on the full-weekend slate. The upside, of course, is there.

On the Showdown (as always), the best approach will be to attack with multiple lineups — mixing and matching various “likeliest to happen” elements with one or two “less likely to happen” elements.

Floor rankings in this game for me go: Hopkins // Deshaun Watson // Osweiler // Fuller // Amendola // Miller // Drake // Grant // Gore // Parker. (Each of these teams ranks top 12 in fewest fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks.)

Ceiling rankings for me go: Watson/Hopkins // Fuller // Osweiler // Grant // Parker // Amendola // Drake // Miller // Gore.

Everyone on that ceiling list has 12-point (FanDuel) to 15-point (DraftKings) upside. Grant and Parker are less likely to hit their ceiling than the guys listed behind them, but if either guy does hit, he has the upside to pass what Amendola/Drake/Miller/Gore can do.

EAGLES // JAGUARS OVERVIEW

It is not in the NFL’s pattern of behavior to send marquee games across the pond, but the boys on Park Avenue did their best in this spot, sending last year’s Super Bowl champion to play the team that should have matched up against them on the biggest stage (the Jags were a too-conservative second half game plan away from reaching that game themselves). But the beauty of parity (some love it, some hate it — you can count me in the first group) is that this game has suddenly taken on new meaning. Each of these teams now sits at 3-4 — and while each does play in a wide-open division, the loser of this game is going to need to put together a hot run over the second half of the season to have any chance at repeating their 2017 success. So far, the Eagles look like the team that is far better equipped to make the turnaround, but this early-morning game will shape much of the rest of the season.

The Eagles have opened as three point favorites in a game with an Over/Under of only 41.5, and while I have read snippets that refer to the Jaguars’ defense as “crumbling,” we should keep in mind that the Jags’ defense carries the following ranks on the year:

2nd — yards allowed per game
5th — yards allowed per drive
5th — drive success rate allowed

The issue for the Jags has not been their defense, but has instead been an offense that has given the ball away 17 times (only the 49ers have turned the ball over more), leading to opponents picking up easy points against this unit. Blake Bortles will be starting again for the Jags, but he does have a history as a streaky player, and while it obviously won’t be surprising if he posts a massive dud in this spot, it also won’t be surprising if he comes out hot — leading to a more difficult game on offense for the Eagles than recent teams have had against the Jags.

EAGLES PASS OFFENSE

In terms of pure matchup, it doesn’t get much more difficult than the Jags, who are tied with the Browns for the second-lowest catch rate allowed on the year (behind only the Ravens), and who are just inches behind Carolina for lowest YAC allowed per reception. Jacksonville has been significantly above-average defending all areas of the field except the deep sidelines. Jacksonville is still solid defending this part of the field, but DeAndre Hopkins, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill were all able to hit for moderate chunk gains up the sidelines, and this is where Alshon Jeffery operates. Since returning to the field, Alshon has seen target counts of 9 // 8 // 12 // 10. Inefficiency will be the name of the game here, but he tends to get his targets regardless, and he can avoid a dud if he is able to haul in four or five of these downfield looks.

There has been a narrative this year that the Jags can be attacked over the middle because Tyler Patmon is the weak link in this secondary. (Patmon also left last Sunday’s game with a neck injury, so this narrative should intensify if Patmon misses on Sunday.) But this has not actually played out in reality, with teams constantly avoiding the middle of the field against Jacksonville and their speedy linebackers — and even when Cole Beasley popped off out of the slot, all of his receptions actually came outside the hash marks, on double-moves or extended plays. The Eagles don’t really have a double-move specialist like Beasley (the Cowboys absolutely hammered Jacksonville on those routes), and slot man Nelson Agholor is more of a one-cut-and-go receiver. Agholor has recent yardage totals of 24 // 22 // 45 // 91 // 20, and nothing in this matchup suggests an outlier game is likely.

The Saints, Raiders, and Bears are tied for the fewest receptions allowed to tight ends this year, at 20. The Jags (who — unlike those three — have not yet had a bye) have allowed 23 receptions to the position. We should be long past the point where we worry about matchup for Zach Ertz, who has double-digit targets in six of seven games (and has nine targets in his other game), but this matchup will make it much tougher for him to perform with his usual high level of efficiency. He should still get his nine or more on-the-money looks from Carson Wentz.

Dallas Goedert has seen matchup-specific usage, and it has been impossible thus far to pinpoint the matchups in which Doug Pederson will look to feature him. But with recent target counts of 7 // 2 // 2 // 1 // 5, he’s a name to keep in mind on the Showdown slate as a player who carries an absolute dud floor to go with excellent point-per-dollar upside on weeks when he is featured.

EAGLES RUN OFFENSE

Wendell Smallwood has quietly out-snapped Corey Clement 79 to 51 over the last two weeks, with 30 touches to Smallwood and 24 to Clement. As has been noted all season: the Eagles approach each game with an offensive game plan unique to the opponent they are facing, so this playing time distribution could shift without warning. Because each guy is roughly the same size (and the same style of player) as the other, it has been impossible to get a read on how Pederson views them from one matchup to the next. The safest bet is to assume a roughly 60/40 split one way or the other, with the fat end trending toward Smallwood lately. Darren Sproles appears on track to finally return this week (though perhaps the trip to London will give Pederson pause — leading to one more week of Sproles on the sidelines).

The Jags rank 12th in yards allowed per carry — and as always, we could take off Saquon’s long run against them and make their number look much better (4.2 yards per carry down to 3.8 — which would be tied with the Ravens for fifth in the league) — but Jacksonville has faced the fourth-most rush attempts in the NFL, as teams try to avoid passing against them. This has led to only five teams allowing more yards on the ground, creating a quietly intriguing spot for one of these two backs to post a solid game.

JAGUARS PASS OFFENSE

At this point, Bortles’ bipolar (tripolar?) act has taken him beyond the powers of foresight and quality pregame breakdowns. We can look at the usage for his receivers and the way the matchup sets up, but results will also be dependent on which version of Bortles shows up. There are basically three versions we could get: Aggressive and awesome Bortles // Aggressive and awful Bortles // Scared-and-hiding-in-his-shell, game-manager Bortles. The Jags would like Bortles to simply fill that third role, as that’s all they need in order to pick up enough wins to take down the AFC South — but Bortles often clicks over to his aggressive side, and while it’s always an adventure to watch, the results are entirely unpredictable.

What has been impressively predictable for us lately is “which Jaguars receiver sets up best for a particular matchup,” as we have nailed usage three consecutive weeks in what is thought to be an impossible wide receiver corps to figure out.

As noted last week, the Eagles are actually a bit above-average on a per-pass basis, but because teams do not like running against them, Philly has faced the sixth most pass attempts in the league. Teams primarily attack Philly in three distinct ways: wide receiver screens // sideline targets on the left side of the field (against Ronald Darby) // double-moves on the right side of the field (against Jalen Mills). As with last week (10 targets for Donte Moncrief, seven targets for Keelan Cole), this matchup sets up best for Moncrief and Cole. Dede Westbrook (four targets last week) is a candidate to see some wide receiver screens, but he’s the least likely receiver to pile up volume. All three of these guys will be dependent on the play of Blake Bortles.

Behind these guys, David Grinnage saw two targets last week in the limited Jacksonville tight end role, playing only 31 snaps as the Jags pulled D.J. Chark onto the field for 30 snaps. Chark’s usage may have been specific to last week’s game plan, but he did see seven targets, going 4-31-0. He had exactly one target in three of his previous four games, and he played behind all of Westbrook, Cole, and Moncrief last week, but his usage is worth noting for those taking deep shots on the Showdown.

JAGUARS RUN OFFENSE

Jacksonville has struggled to get much going on the ground this year as one of only 10 teams in the NFL averaging under 100 rushing yards per game as a team — in spite of Bortles contributing a healthy 31.1 rushing yards per game of his own. This week, they are taking on a Philly unit that has unsurprisingly allowed the second fewest rushing yards per game in the league. Through seven games, the Eagles have faced an average of only 19.0 rush attempts per game — by far the lowest mark in the league.

The Jaguars appear set to feature Carlos Hyde on first and second downs this week, while turning the backfield over to T.J. Yeldon on passing downs. Either guy will need to reach the end zone (possibly more than once) in order to make a dent.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

On the full-weekend slate, I would not play a single player from this game, and I honestly wouldn’t have much interest in the Showdown slate even if I were a regular in those contests. If playing the Showdown, however, I would likely use this spot to simply think about game flow. For example: “What if the Eagles score two quick touchdowns with the running backs? What would that mean for the rest of the game?” In this instance, you would assume that each running back on the Eagles has a solid start and continues to be featured throughout, and you would assume that the Jags go pass-heavy afterward (from here, you could further decide whether you want to tell a story in which Bortles plays great, or if you want to instead figure out what your team should look like if Bortles struggles). Then, you could flip it around and build another roster that tells a story in which Bortles comes out hot and throws an early touchdown to Donte Moncrief. What would this mean for game flow? And what would this mean for who you should roster from there? (And so on.)

On a slate like this, the best thing you can really do is understand how the players on each team are used (above), and then build some variations on your rosters that tell different stories about how the game could play out.

RAVENS // PANTHERS OVERVIEW

When I first set up this game in the document where I write the NFL Edge, I said, “This is a good game.” Every year when I was a kid, my goal was to watch at least one game from all 32 teams. This is a game I would have circled for these two teams. The Ravens sit at 4-3 right now, while the Panthers sit at 4-2. Each team is clearly a playoff-caliber unit, but each is also fighting for their life in a difficult division.

While this is a great matchup from an “NFL” perspective, this game is less immediately appealing from a DFS perspective, with an early-week Over/Under of 43.0. The Ravens play at the third fastest pace in the NFL, but they are allowing the fewest yards per game and the fewest points per game. Carolina also ranks 13th in fewest yards allowed and 10th in fewest points allowed.

Baltimore has the edge on offense, ranking ninth in yards per game (18th for Carolina) and 15th in points per game (Carolina ranks 18th again), while each team is above-average at drive success rate (15th for Baltimore; 9th for Carolina). Baltimore, of course, is lethal on defense (first in DSR), while Carolina is easier to move the ball on (22nd in DSR). If patterns from the first seven weeks of the season hold, Baltimore should have a fairly easy time scoring when they reach the red zone, as they rank fourth in red zone touchdown rate on offense, while Carolina ranks 29th on defense.

RAVENS PASS OFFENSE

Through the first seven weeks of the season, Michael Crabtree has worked the sidelines for the Ravens in a possession-type role, while Willie Snead has worked the middle of the field in a possession-type role — leading to an aDOT of 10.2 for Crabtree on an eye-popping 9.14 targets per game, with Snead seeing 7.14 targets per game and an aDOT of 8.5. Crabtree has topped 66 yards only once this season, and Snead has not yet topped 60 yards, but the targets have been consistent, as the Ravens have filtered over 80% of their air yards through Crabtree, Snead, and John Brown.

Brown saw encouraging usage last week — in terms of his ability to be viewed as a matchup-proof guy — as zero of his seven looks came 20+ yards downfield. Typically, we prefer “lots of targets on deep balls” over “lots of targets on short passes,” as deep passes create more opportunity for upside — but given that Brown had averaged over 20 yards per target on the year (leading the league coming into last week), his seven targets of under 20 yards were a reminder that he can be used effectively at all levels of the field. JB came out of that game with a 7-134-1 line — catching every pass that came his way.

Each of these three receivers has such a clearly-defined role that matchup has not mattered much for their usage — with Brown seeing seven or more targets in five of seven games, Crabtree seeing eight or more targets in six consecutive games, and Snead seeing seven or more targets in four straight games (with target counts of 6 // 8 // 5 in the three weeks prior). Each guy has elements in his route tree that play well against the Panthers — but with the Panthers shining in YAC allowed per reception (no team in the league has been better), upside is capped on the guys in Crabtree and Snead who see most of their work closer to the line of scrimmage.

While Carolina has been average in catch rate allowed, only five teams have allowed a deeper average depth of target — with the Panthers increasing opponent aDOT more than 9% above the league average. This bodes well for Brown, who ranks second in the NFL in aDOT, and who leads the team with seven red zone targets (to go with his big-play scoring ability). Carolina has allowed the seventh most pass plays of 20+ yards, in spite of the early bye.

Behind the wide receivers, the Ravens are running a four-way timeshare at tight end.

With Carolina allowing the sixth fewest opponent plays per game, they rank middle of the pack in passing yards allowed per game and in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, creating middling expectations for Joe Flacco in this spot.

RAVENS RUN OFFENSE

Only three teams in the NFL have faced fewer rush attempts than the Panthers, and only four teams have allowed fewer yards — in spite of Carolina ranking middle of the pack in yards allowed per carry. Much like the Eagles, teams prefer to attack through the air against this team. (Last year, the Eagles were the only team in the league that faced fewer rush attempts than Carolina.)

When the Ravens do run the ball, they will be working behind an offensive line that ranks bottom eight in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards (Carolina ranks sixth in adjusted line yards on defense), giving the ball to a running back in Alex Collins who is averaging only 3.6 yards per carry on the season, and who has yet to top 68 rushing yards in a game. Collins is averaging two receptions per game, and can be counted on for a respectable stat line when he scores, and for a likely dud when he doesn’t. The Panthers have allowed only two rushing touchdowns to running backs. (Only three teams have allowed fewer.)

Javorius Allen will continue to handle passing downs, with target counts on the year as low as two and as high as eight. Only two teams have allowed fewer passing yards to running backs this year.

PANTHERS OFFENSE

This is an extremely difficult matchup for a Carolina offense that flows first and foremost through Christian McCaffrey and Cam Newton. Starting with CMC: No team in the NFL has allowed fewer receiving yards per game to running backs than the Ravens, and only two teams have allowed fewer receptions per game to enemy backs. Only five teams have allowed fewer rushing yards per game to running backs. Only four teams have allowed fewer yards per carry. No team has allowed fewer touchdowns to the position.

Baltimore has also been elite against quarterbacks, allowing the second fewest fantasy point per game to the position, while allowing the fewest yards per pass attempt, the second fewest passing yards per game, the lowest catch rate in the league, and the fifth-lowest YAC per reception. Quarterbacks have had moderate success running against the Ravens, averaging 16.0 yards per game. Cam will have a tough time through the air and on the ground, but he should be able to at least double that mark of 16; he has at least 29 yards rushing in every game this year, with three touchdowns on the ground (to go with 11 through the air). Baltimore, of course, has allowed only 11 total touchdowns all season.

Through the air, Carolina is essentially a slower-paced, less-effective version of the Saints — with several speed guys (Curtis Samuel, Torrey Smith, and Damiere Byrd) who can open things deep, with a tight end in Greg Olsen who can work the seams and intermediate out routes, and with a big-bodied number one receiver in Devin Funchess. As with the Saints: volume on Carolina away from the backfield and the “big-bodied number one receiver” is a tossup. Samuel has seen recent target counts of 4 // 0 // 1. Byrd has only one target all year. Smith has produced 43 and 61 yards the last two games, but he is still a part-time player and is dealing with a knee injury. Alongside all these guys, Carolina still has Jarius Wright soaking up short-area looks and D.J. Moore mixing in for roughly 50% of the team’s snaps (with recent target counts of 4 // 5 // 5). Because this team is playing the Ravens, I imagine only half of you are actually reading this. If for some reason you feel compelled to attack in this spot, the most bankable workloads belong to Devin Funchess (recent target counts of 9 // 7 // 7 // 8 // 11) and Olsen (7 // 5 targets since he returned). None of these guys boast an above-average matchup, vs a Ravens team that has allowed fewer yards per game and fewer points per game than any other team in football. The Ravens are weakest against tight end (ranking bottom 10 in yards and receptions allowed) — though of course, they have allowed only one touchdown to the position (only two teams have allowed fewer).

JM’S INTERPRETATION

There is not a thing that jumps out at me in this game — and after poking around at the slate before starting the NFL Edge, it appears there will be much better spots than this. With that said, John Brown will surely make my early-week list, and if I go with a multi-entry tourney strategy this week in lower-dollar stuff, I’ll at least sprinkle in some of him for his big-play upside.

I don’t have interest in the possession pieces of the Ravens, as the great tackling of the Panthers leaves these guys as touchdown-dependent options — and even then, it would likely take multiple scores for Snead or Crabtree to be a true difference-maker.

The Baltimore rushing attack has not been of interest to me all season, and that won’t change in a tough spot. Rostering players against the Ravens is also something I have avoided, and it has worked out well so far. I expect to stick to that plan this week.

BROWNS // STEELERS OVERVIEW

We are at the point in the season where we begin to see repeat matchups, with the 3-2-1 Steelers and the 2-4-1 Browns squaring off in Pittsburgh after their sloppy-weather Week 1 tie in Cleveland. This is a different Browns team, with Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb in the backfield, and we know more about each team than we knew in Week 1 (with guys like James Conner and Denzel Ward reshaping our perceptions of each squad), but ultimately, this game is just like any other on the slate — with two teams that will be looking to exploit each other’s weaknesses in a battle for a still-wide-open AFC North.

Unsurprisingly, Vegas has given the nod to the home Steelers — installing them as eight point favorites, with the fourth highest Vegas-implied total on a slate that is packed with potential offensive fireworks. Each team plays fast — with Pittsburgh ranked 12th in pace of play, and with Cleveland really separating themselves from the pack with the second fastest pace of play in the league. Pittsburgh leans on the pass (fourth in pass play rate), while Cleveland ranks 16th in pass play rate — but they rank ninth across their last three games. Neither team has a substantial edge in drive success rate (Cleveland ranks seventh in the league on defense, but Pittsburgh ranks 12th on offense), but the one clear advantage belongs to Pittsburgh in the red zone, where they rank third in the league in touchdown rate, and will take on a Browns defense that ranks a middling 20th in red zone touchdown rate allowed. This is a spot where Pittsburgh should be able to put together some long drives and punch in scores close to the end zone.

BROWNS PASS OFFENSE

If we take away runs by quarterbacks and wide receivers, the Steelers have been absolutely savage defending the run this year — allowing running backs to average only 3.57 yards per carry (basically turning every NFL running back into Alex Collins), while allowing the fourth fewest rushing yards and the fewest receiving yards to the position. This has forced teams to attack Pittsburgh through the air (only four teams have faced fewer rush attempts than the Steelers — yet even with the early bye, only 10 teams have faced more pass attempts), and this is an approach we should see the Browns lean on, as their 65.7% pass play rate over the last three weeks would rank seventh in the NFL on the season.

This is going to expose Baker Mayfield to a massive mismatch against a Steelers defensive line that ranks fourth in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate. No team in the NFL has taken more sacks than the Browns, who rank dead last in adjusted sack rate. The Steelers sacked Tyrod Taylor seven times the last time these teams faced — and with the Steelers mixing up blitzes and trying to force teams to throw deep (by design, the Steelers have faced the second deepest aDOT in the NFL — making up for this by allowing the third lowest YAC per reception rate), there should be plenty of opportunities for the sack parade to continue. This is not the sort of offense that is going to try to turn to a dink-and-dunk attack in order to mitigate the rush. Only the Bucs, Chiefs, and Texans have a deeper average intended air yards than the Browns this year.

When the Browns do dump off the ball, the main beneficiary will be David Njoku, who has a pristine matchup vs a Steelers team that has been hammered by tight ends — facing the most targets per game and allowing the most receptions per game in the league. This is not a fixable issue for Pittsburgh, as their attacking style simply filters short-area targets to the tight end — a matchup that even this Browns coaching staff will be able to exploit. Njoku has target counts across his last four games of 7 // 10 // 12 // 6.

Wide receiver numbers against Pittsburgh look glossy because of the 10 passing touchdowns they have allowed, though they have been merely a middling matchup in terms of yards and receptions allowed.

The best way to attack Pittsburgh with wide receivers is on out-breaking routes and passes over the middle (especially the deep middle). These are routes that all three of Jarvis Landry, Antonio Callaway, and Damion Ratley (or Rashard Higgins, if he returns) can run — so we should expect Landry to continue operating as the alpha, coming off recent target counts of 14 // 10 // 11 // 10 // 15. Inefficiency continues to be a problem for Landry in this miscast role (he has caught only 50% of his 82 targets), but even a 50% catch rate in this spot with little in the way of YAC should yield something like a 6-70-0 line, with clear upside for more.

Mayfield threw a season-low 34 pass attempts last week, but it was still concerning to see Callaway and Ratley at only five combined targets. Each guy has the downfield skill set to post a big game on only one or two catches, so don’t count them out as large-field upside plays (these are the sorts of guys you can throw onto a few rosters if multi-entering, taking them as a low-owned value play alongside an otherwise well-thought-out team, recognizing that if you “guess right” and catch a big play or two, your low-owned value could shoot you past the field). Expect only three or four targets apiece for these guys, but recognize that they could get more. Of course, Callaway has connected on only 41% of his targets this year. Ratley has caught nine of 11 looks across the last two weeks.

BROWNS RUN OFFENSE

Nick Chubb has a locked-in role in this backfield now, though as hypothesized last week: his box score will mostly come down to touchdowns. He won’t always end up with zero catches (last week, we gave him a projection of one to two catches for 15 to 20 yards; and he did see two targets), but big receiving games will be outliers in his role — which means that on weeks in which he fails to score, he’ll likely disappoint. As noted above, this is one of the toughest run defense matchups in the NFL.

Naturally, Duke Johnson did not see a major spike in work last week, either — catching the same four passes he had caught in two of his previous three games, and taking only one carry on the day. Duke has the ability to pop off for a good game any time he touches the ball, but this is a disciplined defense that tackles well, and that has sealed off running back receptions on the year, making this a difficult spot for him to find much breathing room for upside.

STEELERS OFFENSE

Can I interest you in some Steelers offense?

This is one of my favorite stats on the year:

Only one team has faced more rush attempts this year than the Browns.

Only two teams have faced more pass attempts this year than the Browns.

Obviously, the Browns have faced the most opponent plays per game — and while four overtime games has something to do with this, there would only be seven teams that had allowed more plays per game than the Browns if we took away OT (and if we wanted to play that game: two of those teams have had overtime games, which would bump the Browns ahead of them). Any way you dice it, this fast-paced Browns offense is allowing plenty of opponent plays per game. With the Steelers giving 70.1% of their total offensive touches to Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and James Conner, there should be a good chunk of work to go around. Pittsburgh already ranks eighth in plays per game at 66.8, and they project for a slight boost in this spot.

On a per-play basis, Cleveland has been tough through the air, allowing the second lowest catch rate in the NFL and even cleaning up their YAC allowed problems — leading to the fifth lowest yards allowed per pass attempt. Cleveland tries to make opponents fight for every catch, which makes volume a necessity. Wide receivers in particular have had a tough time on a per-play basis, catching only 56.0% of passes thrown to them.

The good news for AB and JuJu is that volume is very much on their side. Through six games, AB has fallen shy of nine targets only once, and he has 11 or more targets in four games (with 16 targets the last time these teams met). JuJu has four double-digit games of his own, with only one game below eight targets. He has 42 receptions on the year, to 40 for AB. Each guy should see a decent amount of Denzel Ward, but each should also see plenty of looks — providing a solid floor on each guy, to go with whatever they can do after the catch.

The easiest position to hit against the Browns has been the tight end, as Cleveland has allowed a 62.9% catch rate to the position, facing the third most targets and allowing the seventh most receptions. It should be noted that Cleveland has tackled well after the catch against tight ends, ranking down at 13th in yards allowed, in spite of all the catches. Vance McDonald and Jesse James continue to “split time,” but neither is really eating into the workload of the other, with each playing 51 snaps a couple weeks ago (out of 73 total offensive plays). Vance is the better bet for a big play or two. James is the better bet for an end zone target. Each should see a handful of targets in this one.

In the backfield, Conner is coming off a 90.4% snap share in Week 6, and he has touch counts of 25 and 23 in his last two games. Cleveland ranks 20th in fewest yards allowed per rush attempt and 28th in fewest rushing yards allowed per game, with the second most rushing touchdowns allowed in the NFL. As noted at the top, Cleveland ranks 20th in red zone touchdown rate allowed, while Pittsburgh ranks third in red zone touchdown rate — a great recipe for running back touchdowns. Running backs have scored more touchdowns against Cleveland than wide receivers and tight ends combined — one of only three teams in the NFL for which this is the case. (Arizona and Miami are the other two.)

JM’S INTERPRETATION

This is the first of the higher-scoring games I have written up (I’m writing this game on Tuesday, but most of the higher-scoring affairs have to be saved until Wednesday as I wait for injury news), so I’m not quite sure yet how the rest of the slate shapes up. But there are a few plays in this game that really stand out to me after digging through the research:

The Steelers’ DST unit should be able to pile up sacks in this spot, with a couple turnovers in play as well. Somehow, they cost under 5% of the salary cap on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, and they are one of the lower-priced units on FanDuel as well.

Njoku should pile up targets again, making him a strong floor/ceiling play at a perpetually thin position, while Vance McDonald and even Jesse James carry nice ceiling (with obviously iffy floors).

James Conner really pops in this spot for me, with guaranteed involvement (he has not settled back into that 30+ touch Le’veon-like role that he showed in Week 1 vs these Browns, but the only times he really fell out of the game plan came when the Steelers’ opponent jumped out to a big lead — something that should not concern us in this spot), and with a strong shot at a touchdown (with multi-touchdown possibility), same as we noted a couple weeks ago against the Bengals.

Landry, JuJu, and AB all belong on my early-week list as well. None of them jump off the page, so I won’t be surprised if they get bumped off down the road; but all three have big upside and solid floor — in spite of being in below-average spots.

BRONCOS // CHIEFS OVERVIEW

The 3-4 Broncos will travel to take on the mighty, 6-1 Chiefs at Arrowhead on Sunday afternoon in what should be a fun game for DFS — between two teams that rank in the top half of the league in pace of play (Denver quietly ranks fifth), and featuring (on the Main Slate for the first time in a while) a Kansas City team that ranks third in the NFL in yards per game and 32nd in yards allowed per game. This game has been given an early-week Over/Under of 55.0, with the Chiefs installed as 10 point favorites and carrying a massive Vegas-implied team total of 32.5. Each team ranks middle of the pack in pass play rate, and each team also allows an above-average number of opponent plays per game. Kansas City is second in drive success rate on offense and 31st in drive success rate allowed. The last time these teams met — in Denver — the Chiefs won 27-23.

BRONCOS PASS OFFENSE

It is a difficult thing to try to quantify home field advantage, but we do know that Arrowhead is one of the most difficult places to play — and we know that the Chiefs’ defense traditionally plays better at home. This has been an attackable unit since the beginning of last year, and on the road in 12 games across 2017 and 2018, KC has allowed an incredible 27.9 points per game, essentially turning the average opponent they have faced into this year’s Chargers. It has been a completely different story at home, however, with the Chiefs allowing only one team to top 20 points at Arrowhead across 11 games — holding opponents to an overall average of 16.9 points per game, essentially turning the average opponent they have faced into this year’s Jaguars. The Chiefs have stepped up their pass rush lately, ranking a middling 15th in adjusted sack rate, while Denver has been merely average at protecting Case Keenum. Keenum has thrown at least one interception in every game this year.

While the Chiefs generally have an easier time generating sacks and turnovers at home and are better at keeping opponents off the board, yardage does still pile up against them — creating opportunities for solid games from receivers who find themselves in “attack mode” for much of the game. The Chiefs have gifted an increase of 11% above the league-average in aDOT this season, while increasing opponent YAC per reception by 7% above the league average. Only two teams have allowed more receptions to wide receivers, and only seven teams have allowed more yards. Returning to the theme of “Kansas City potentially limiting upside in this spot”: only four teams in the NFL have allowed fewer touchdowns to wide receivers than the Chiefs have allowed. This is a spot to target volume and yardage, and to hope for a bonus touchdown.

In the “volume” department, Courtland Sutton is sadly being left behind, with recent target counts of four and three, after three six-target games in a four week stretch. Keenum has managed to hit Sutton on only 14 of 33 passes so far (and that’s even with Sutton hauling in a couple spectacular grabs), making him a thin option this week.

Demaryius Thomas has seen recent target counts (starting in Week 3) of 5 // 7 // 6 // 4 // 6, and he has topped 63 yards only once in that stretch. As a declining route runner, he matches up poorly against the man-heavy coverage scheme of the Chiefs, and when these teams met a few weeks ago he went 4-24-0 on seven looks. He’ll need a broken play or an unlikely touchdown to provide strong value.

Emmanuel Sanders continues to produce every time he is given an opportunity — with only the Broncos’ desire to lean on the run when they grab a lead standing between him and consistent production. Sanders has hauled in 75.4% of his 61 targets on the year, with 603 yards and three touchdowns on the season — putting him on pace for roughly 100 yards and half a touchdown in any given 10-target game. Sanders matches up best against the Chiefs’ secondary, and nine to 11 targets seems likely in this spot.

BRONCOS RUN OFFENSE

The Chiefs have been awful against the run, ranking 30th in yards allowed per rush attempt and allowing the third most rushing touchdowns in spite of facing the 12th fewest rush attempts. Three of these rushing touchdowns have come from quarterbacks (a small boost to Keenum), but running backs have pasted the Chiefs for nine total touchdowns — tied with the Falcons, Bills, Bucs, Dolphins, Giants, and Bengals for the third most in the league. Right now, it appears that Royce Freeman (ankle) will miss this game — which will open the door for Phillip Lindsay Week. Lindsay has averaged 5.8 yards per carry and 7.9 yards per reception, while Lindsay and Freeman have combined for recent carry counts of 20 // 17 // 13 // 27, and for recent catch counts of 2 // 6 // 6 // 1 (only three of those receptions belonged to Freeman). Devontae Booker will continue to waste the Broncos’ time on passing downs, but Lindsay should soak up most of the 20+ touches this role projects for, putting him in a premier spot this week.

Naturally, if Freeman plays, each guy goes back to his low-floor space, with Lindsay still carrying the moderate ceiling he has carried all year.

CHIEFS PASS OFFENSE

On a per-play basis, the Denver pass defense has been slightly above-average — and with their pass rush coming on lately (third in adjusted sack rate), they have managed to hold the Chiefs (27 points) and the Rams (23 points) well below their season averages across the last four weeks. Both of those games were at home, however — and 27 points from the Chiefs would still be a solid day. It’s safe to add an extra touchdown to projections for Kansas City with this game moving to Arrowhead, creating opportunity for yet another four touchdown spot for this offense.

While the Broncos have actually been “borderline good” against the pass for the most part, it is the long play that has crushed them this season. In the last meeting between these teams (with Sammy Watkins leaving early in the game), Denver sold out to slow down Tyreek Hill, but this started a new trend in this offense — in which Hill gets targeted more when things fail to hit early. Hill tied a career high with 13 targets in Denver, and he has since followed up that game with 12 targets against the Patriots and 10 targets against the Bengals. Hill is getting short looks and deep looks, and his volume is higher than it has ever been — so while he still carries a lower floor than any other wide receiver priced in his range, this floor is no longer back-breaking, and his ceiling remains as high as any player on the slate.

Watkins continues to see reliable usage in this offense, with target counts of 7 // 8 // 8 // 4 // 7 in his last five healthy games, backed by an all-over-the-place route tree that changes from matchup to matchup. Sometimes he is featured on short stuff; sometimes he is used downfield. It is worth noting that when Watkins left in the first half the last time these teams met, Hill assumed a much heavier short-area role than normal — suggesting this was how Andy Reid planned to use Watkins in that spot.

Chris Conley will primarily contend with Chris Harris in the slot, creating a lower-than-normal floor. Conley’s red zone role impacts DFS more for the way he vultures scores from the superstars on this team than for the way he becomes a usable piece himself.

With so many mouths to feed in this offense, Travis Kelce has seen unpredictable workloads, with bounce-around target counts on the year of 6 // 10 // 10 // 12 // 8 // 9 // 5. When these teams last met, the Chiefs forced the issue with Kelce, feeding him 12 targets — though with Watkins on the field this week, nine to 10 looks is a more comfortable projection. The Broncos are a middling tight end matchup, with the 11th most yards allowed to the position. This spot neither raises nor lowers expectations on Kelce.

CHIEFS RUN OFFENSE

The Broncos have been most attackable on the ground, ranking 27th in adjusted line yards and 31st in yards allowed per carry, while facing the fifth most rush attempts in the league. Only the Cardinals have allowed more rushing yards (one more rushing yard allowed, on 42 more carries), and only the Browns and Cardinals have allowed more rushing yards to running backs. On average, the Broncos have faced 24.9 running back rush attempts per game (top five in the league), while Kareem Hunt has 84.9% of the Chiefs’ rush attempts on the year — putting him in line for a 20-carry game against a team allowing over five yards per carry. Hunt has also seen a rise in schemed usage in the pass game of late, with recent target counts of 4 // 2 // 6 // 6. He ranks third in the NFL in touches in the red zone, and he ranks third in the NFL in touches inside the 10.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

The running backs in particular stand out to me in this game, with Lindsay and Hunt both looking like top plays on this slate. Each guy should see plenty of work on the ground with a small number of reliable targets mixed in — and each guy will also be a premium piece in scoring position. (Royce Freeman will be leaving behind three carries inside the five-yard-line — one more than Lindsay has on the year.)

Sanders is my favorite wide receiver in this game — with strong floor and solid ceiling — and I also like all of Hill, Watkins, and Kelce for their upside. I see all three of these pieces on the Chiefs as properly priced on all three sites, with the only potential “underpriced” case belonging to Hill on FanDuel, where five guys are priced above him. As noted above: Hill still has a lower floor than the other guys in his range; but given that he can post the highest score on the slate on any given week, he’s interesting in tourneys at a discount. Hill is likelier to hit in a true shootout, but he is capable of hitting in literally any spot.

I also see Patrick Mahomes as appropriately priced, against a Broncos team that has allowed the sixth fewest fantasy points per game to the position. No matchup scares me for Mahomes, but the Broncos are so easy to run on (especially close to the end zone), it becomes more difficult for quarterbacks to post monster games against them. Mahomes is not a guy I’ll pay up for in cash (again: I always expect a strong game from him — but the likeliest scenario this week is that we can match or even exceed his score for a lower price), but he does carry tourney-winning upside every time he steps onto the field.

Finally: I’m not on Sutton this week. So…yeah. Maybe this is the week he smashes.

JETS // BEARS OVERVIEW

Most people probably wouldn’t realize, at first thought, that the hyped Bears have the same number of wins as the Jets — and this public perception is backed up by Vegas installing the Bears as seven point favorites at home this week. While the Bears’ three losses have come by a combined total of 11 points, the Jets’ four losses have come by a combined total of 51 points, with the Jets playing “Good Darnold // Bad Darnold” football. Darnold’s only road win came in an outlier Week 1 game in which the Jets intercepted five passes and Darnold had to throw the ball only 21 times. He has failed to top a 50% completion rate in either of his other two road games (and has in fact failed to top a 50% completion rate in four of his last five contests overall).

JETS PASS OFFENSE

The Jets are further limited by injuries, with Bilal Powell suddenly out for the season, and with Robby Anderson looking unlikely to play this week. Trenton Cannon will fill in as the pass-catching back moving forward (the last time we mentioned Cannon, I believe, was as a potential deep-sleeper in the Week 1 Showdown slate), while the Jets will likely move forward with Jermaine Kearse, Rishard Matthews, and Andre Roberts at wide receiver. Matthews will have had only a couple weeks with the playbook (and just as little practice time with Darnold), while Roberts has three receptions all season.

Making the Week 7 Kearse dud even more surprising was the fact that Darnold threw the ball 42 times, but Kearse had only two targets. For whatever it’s worth, the Jets gave Kearse a locker next to Darnold this year to be a mentor to him, and the two showed a real connection two weeks ago, with Kearse going 9-94-0 on 10 targets. Even with the Jets primarily leaning on two tight end sets last week, Kearse ran 40 of his 64 snaps from the slot, and the only place where the Bears are even moderately attackable in the short area of the field is over the middle. According to Football Outsiders’ metrics, no team has been more stingy to the short right than the Bears, and only five teams have been tougher to the short left, but the Giants are the only team in the league that has been more attackable over the short middle. Kearse will still have Darnold throwing to him, but this is a spot that should land him in the middle of his Week 5 breakout and his Week 6 disappointment.

Behind Kearse, the Jets gave at least 22 snaps to four different tight ends — and they did not give more than 32 snaps to any of those four guys. Jordan Leggett ran the most pass routes of the bunch, but saw only one target. Chris Herndon and Neal Sterling each ran 13 pass routes, with Herndon somehow seeing seven targets (going 4-42-1) on these limited opportunities. In spite of back-to-back spiked weeks, Herndon still carries a scary 0-0-0 floor that Sterling and Leggett both showed last week.

JETS RUN OFFENSE

Chicago has been awesome against the run — ranking sixth in yards allowed per carry, and standing out as the only team in the NFL that has yet to allow a touchdown on the ground. Isaiah Crowell has been extremely inefficient outside of his long runs, so it is worth noting that the Bears have allowed only one rush play all year of 20+ yards (only two teams have allowed fewer such plays). Crow has yet to top 16 carries in a game, and he has 40 or fewer yards in five of seven games. He may see a slight bump with Powell out, but with a foot injury slowing him down, there is only so much the Jets can increase his work.

Cannon stepped in for two carries and five targets last week, and even in a matchup against a ferocious Bears front that had stamped out pass-catching backs before getting beat by the great James White last week, he carries some intriguing upside. As many of you likely recall: the Jets were calling rookie Cannon their “Ferrari” during training cap, as this guy has sick speed in space and can make big things happen with the ball in his hands. His glossy Week 7 line (4-69-0 through the air) was driven by soft defense in garbage time, but he does carry that sort of upside. He likely has only one week to showcase his skills before Elijah McGuire returns, but 10 to 14 touches is reasonable in this spot. (Powell saw 10 to 14 touches in four of six fully healthy games — with more than 14 touches in his other two.)

BEARS PASS OFFENSE

The Jets have been slightly better than average against the pass on a per-play basis, but they have faced the fifth most pass attempts in the league this year, while allowing the sixth most opponent plays per game. This has led to the Jets allowing a worse-than-average 13 passing touchdowns, while ranking middle of the pack in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. The big concern in this spot for the Bears’ offense will be that only six teams are allowing fewer yards per pass attempt — creating a difficult situation if the volume is not there. So far on the year, the Bears have leaned run-heavy whenever possible, ranking 22nd in pass play rate.

Allen Robinson missed practice on Wednesday and appears genuinely questionable for this week, one week after seeing only five targets (and looking less-than-100%) in the sticky coverage of Stephon Gilmore. If Robinson plays, he will continue to operate as one of the top three options in this passing attack, with recent target counts of 7 // 4 // 6 // 5, while running most of his routes on the perimeter, where the Jets have been more difficult to attack.

Alongside A-Rob in this low-volume passing attack is Taylor Gabriel, who has shown his 10-target Week 5 game to be an outlier, surrounded by target counts of 5 // 7 // 7 // 5 // 4. Gabriel has a pair of 100+ yard games and a two-touchdown game — attesting to his upside. He also has four games with 34 or fewer receiving yards — attesting to his floor. The Jets have allowed a middling 3.7 pass plays per game of 20+ yards, but most of these (as we have explored for several consecutive weeks at this point) have come from intermediate crossing routes and yards after the catch, rather than from downfield passes. Gabriel is the likeliest player to be used in this way, but it’s far from a guarantee. He should see an extra target or two if Robinson misses, but keep in mind that A-Rob is only leaving behind about 5.4 targets per game.

Anthony Miller rounds out the wide receivers, with target counts on the year of 3 // 3 // 5 // 4 // 7. In spite of his role in the slot, Miller quietly has a respectable aDOT of 12.3, and he should be locked into five to seven targets if Robinson misses.

Trey Burton popped off last week on 11 targets, though it is worth noting that A-Rob has a 14 target game on the year (with no more than seven looks in any other game), Gabriel has a 10-target game (with no more than seven looks in any other game), and Burton had not topped five targets in any game before last week. His big-target game should be viewed as an outlier, rather than as a sign of things to come, and the Jets have been magnificent against tight ends this year, allowing only 22 receptions and 290 yards through seven games.

BEARS RUN OFFENSE

Volume for all of those pass catchers is taking a hit as a result of Tarik Cohen, who has seen recent target counts of 7 // 7 // 8. Darron Lee is really the only Jets linebacker with significant speed, which should provide yet another opportunity for Chicago to exploit a defense with Cohen’s skill. If the Jets pour some points on the board and/or this game stays close throughout, Cohen should stick in his recent range of targets, while also providing a bit of value on the ground (he has four to six carries in all but one game this year — a 13-carry outlier — and the Jets are tied with the Broncos for the most rushing plays allowed of 20+ yards). Give Cohen a lower floor than he has carried the last few weeks (for the likelihood that the Bears control this game throughout, and therefore play a less aggressive brand of football), but with a similar ceiling.

Cohen has been splitting time with Jordan Howard, who has continued to look surprisingly good in the pass game (11 catches on 14 targets — with at least a couple truly impressive grabs), but who has taken a backseat in that category with Cohen becoming more involved (Howard had 11 targets the first three weeks, and he has only three targets since). Howard has topped 70 rushing yards only once this year and has averaged under 3.0 yards per carry in half of his games. As I have been saying since he entered the league: Howard is “Just a Guy” back there (nothing special to his game, but he can get what’s given to him), which perpetually makes him a usage-dependent player. With usage trickling backward lately as Cohen has earned a larger backfield share, Howard needs multiple touchdowns or a broken play in order to really pop. Howard has not broken a 20-yard run yet this year.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I won’t be going out of my way for anything in this spot (unsurprising, given how many high-total games we have on the week), as I expect the Bears to control the game, and to therefore be able to limit volume for Mitchell Trubisky and his pass catchers. While Trubisky has caught fire lately, one of those games came in a 26-attempt blowout of the helpless Buccaneers defense, and two others came in back-and-forth shootouts vs the Dolphins and the Patriots. With Sam Darnold regressing lately with very little to work with in the pass game, it seems likely that the Bears go a little less aggressive in this spot.

If targeting anything, Cohen and Cannon stand out to me the most, but I will be surprised if we get a true impact game from Cannon, and the usage for Cohen shapes up as less guaranteed in this spot — on a week with a lot to like at running back around the slate. Neither guy shapes up as a priority play for me. I could also see a solid game from Kearse and a big game in a “guess the pass catcher” setup on the Bears, but there is plenty that I like quite a bit more in other spots on the slate.

SEAHAWKS // LIONS OVERVIEW

The 3-3 Seahawks and the 3-3 Lions will square off in Detroit, carrying an early-week Over/Under of 49.5 — a high-total game that is likely to go somewhat overlooked with all the “better” games on the slate. The surprise story of the Lions this year is that they rank 15th in pass play rate, after ranking top three in three consecutive years. The story of the Seahawks is similar, of course, as they rank dead last in the NFL this year in pass play rate — a trend that may shift slightly over the next few weeks, with Russell Wilson hopefully healed up a bit since the bye, though with Brian Schottenheimer calling the plays for the Seahawks, this will remain a run-heavy team through the remainder of the year.

The weakness of each defense has been on the ground, with the Lions allowing the most yards per carry in the league, and with the Seahawks allowing the eighth most yards per carry. Each team is above-average in preventing opponent plays (Seattle ranks 10th in fewest opponent plays per game; Detroit ranks fifth), while Detroit has faced a pass play rate of only 56.5% (this would rank 24th in the NFL on offense), and Seattle has faced a pass play rate of 57.9% (this aggregate pass play rate would rank 20th if it belonged to a single offense). With each team also playing at a middling pace (Seattle ranks 18th and Detroit ranks 16th — though the Lions rank all the way down at 31st in situation neutral pace), a true shootout is unlikely in this environment, and if this game leans any direction, it leans toward the Under. Seattle, in particular, has been steadily improving on defense — now ranking third in DVOA against the pass and 12th in DVOA against the run.

SEAHAWKS PASS OFFENSE

Detroit has not been a shy-away matchup for opposing passing attacks, but the Lions have been so bad against the run and have done such a strong job limiting opponent plays, they have actually faced the fewest pass attempts in the NFL. Considering that the Seahawks have 31 fewer pass attempts than any other team in the league this year (with an impossibly low 27.5 pass attempts per game), it will be very difficult to get excited about this passing attack. In his last four games, Russ has pass attempt totals of 26 // 26 // 21 // 23. He has topped 200 yards in only one of his last four games.

Even with the low passing volume, the Seahawks have managed to spread the ball around, with Tyler Lockett seeing a disappointing 20.8% of the available targets on this team over his last four games, and with Doug Baldwin mixing in target counts since his return of 7 // 1 // 8. David Moore has seen nine total targets across his last three games (popping with three touchdowns in that stretch — but failing to top 47 yards in any of those games), while Brandon Marshall has seen five wasted looks in Seattle’s last three matchups as well. Ed Dickson projects to return this week at tight end, further adding bodies for Russ to spread the love to in this low-volume attack.

No team in football has allowed fewer receptions to wide receivers than the Lions, and only the Jaguars and Seahawks have allowed fewer yards.

If you feel compelled to go here, Baldwin is the best bet for valuable volume — but we should keep in mind that he only topped 100 yards twice last year, on a team that was passing the ball a lot more often (Baldwin had four games of double-digit targets in 2017). His main value comes from touchdowns (eight scores last year), and Detroit has been middling in touchdowns allowed to wide receivers, with seven. A bet on Baldwin is a bet on him adding a touchdown to his volume — not an awful bet, as long as the seven to nine targets are there. Baldwin is at least priced down at 11% or less of the salary cap on all three sites.

SEAHAWKS RUN OFFENSE

The fear in rostering Seattle pass catchers is that this offense will continue to pour all their attention into the ground game, with this team carrying an unbelievably low 42.1% pass play rate over their last three games. To put that in perspective: no team has finished below 50% in the last two years, and only Buffalo in 2015 (49.9%) has finished below 50% in the last three years. This team wants to run the ball — and that is exactly how teams have attacked Detroit throughout the year.

Detroit has recognized this, of course, and they went out and traded for Damon “Snacks” Harrison from the Giants — one of the premier run-cloggers in the league. But Snacks is one guy, and this unit as a whole comes into Week 8 ranked bottom two in all three of adjusted line yards, yards allowed per carry, and rushing yards allowed per game.

The reliable good news may end there. While Detroit has been beatable across the entire defensive line, the Seahawks have only been above-average when running right up the gut — where Snacks will make a difference directly. The bye week (and everything we know about Pete Carroll) also introduces some concern that this team will indeed turn into a three-way timeshare with Rashaad Penny more involved (or even some concern that Penny will unexpectedly take over for Mike Davis or Chris Carson; when it comes to Carroll, who really knows?).

All of that is simply speculation, of course. The likeliest scenario is that the Seahawks run the ball around 30 to 35 times, and that roughly 18 to 22 of these carries go to Carson while Davis cleans up the rest. Carson is not schemed targets in the pass game and is unlikely to top two or three looks in any given week, but if he indeed sees 20+ carries in this spot, he does warrant low-floor, solid-upside consideration as a yardage-and-touchdown back. There is at least some chance that Sunday ends and the masses find themselves saying, “Wow, the Lions were allowing the third most rushing yards per game to running backs; how did I not consider Carson?”

LIONS PASS OFFENSE

Seattle has been strong against the pass this year, ranking third in DVOA and fourth in yards allowed per pass attempt, while facing the fourth fewest pass attempts in the league. Overall, Seattle has had a soft schedule for passing attacks (Denver // Chicago // Dallas // Arizona // L.A. Rams // Oakland), but they have excelled primarily by forcing the third-lowest average depth of target in the league — which is something they have maintained through all matchups. When the Rams faced Seattle, Goff threw only two passes of 20+ yards (one fell incomplete, and one was intercepted). Goff threw five such passes the previous game (completing four, with three going for touchdowns) and threw another four the next game. This is not a defense that teams are testing deep.

So far this year, Marvin Jones has been targeted primarily downfield, with an aDOT of 15.3. He has not topped six targets in any of his last four games, and he and Matthew Stafford have connected on only 19 of 37 attempts (51.4%).

Kenny Golladay has seen erratic usage, with target counts of 12 // 9 // 7 // 4 // 9 // 2, and he has a role that is more “downfield” than would be optimal in this matchup. He does run enough crossing routes to create opportunities for mix-ups in coverage, and he projects to see six to eight looks, giving him some upside to go with his iffy floor.

The guy likeliest to pile up looks is Golden Tate, as Seattle is best attacked on underneath routes, and they have sprung leaks in YAC allowed at times — ranking sixth worst in the league in YAC per reception rate allowed, increasing the league-average YAC/R by more than eight percent. Tate has a surprisingly middling xYAC/R of 5.8, but we know the upside he brings with the ball in his hands. With the Lions trending away from their pass-heavy offense, Tate has seen target counts in his last four games of 8 // 8 // 7 // 6. The Jaguars are the only team that has allowed fewer passing yards to wide receivers than the Seahawks.

LIONS RUN OFFENSE

Since Jim Bob Cooter took over as the offensive coordinator of the Lions partway through the 2015 season, this has been one of the pass-heaviest offenses in the league — and they started out that way this year, with Stafford throwing 46 and 53 times in the Lions’ first two games. Part of that was fueled by game flow…but particularly in Week 1 (the 17-48 blowout loss to the Jets), the game flow was fueled by Stafford’s poor play (four interceptions). It seems likely that rookie head coach Matt Patricia made an executive decision at that point that the team would focus more on the run — as the Lions have since shifted, with Stafford building pass attempt totals of only 36 // 30 // 26 // 22, and with the Lions going 3-1 in that stretch (with their lone loss coming by two points at Dallas). Unless this game gets out of hand (which is not the likeliest scenario), the Lions project to continue leaning on the run. And with Theo Riddick set to miss another game, that means we should see another healthy dose of Kerryon Johnson.

Kerryon played 59.4% of the snaps last week (up from 46.8% in Week 5 and 37.0% in Week 4), carrying the ball 19 times and adding two additional receptions. The Lions quietly rank a respectable 12th in adjusted line yards, and they should do fine against a Seattle defense that ranks 14th. The Seahawks have allowed 4.0 yards per carry to running backs (a solid mark), and only nine teams have allowed fewer yards to the position — indicating that this is not quite the slam dunk that Miami was last week (4.5 YPC allowed; the third most yards allowed to the position — with nine RB touchdowns allowed, compared to five allowed by Seattle), but the worst case for Kerryon should still be a solid game for the price, and he has strong upside for the price as well.

The best deal on Kerryon comes on FantasyDraft, where he costs 9.5% of the salary cap (compared to 10.6% on DK and 11.5% on FanDuel).

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I don’t expect to have any interest in the Seahawks’ passing attack, though it won’t be surprising if Baldwin posts a solid game for his price. (He’s worth a shot in tourneys. But his usage and floor are less certain than I would optimally like to target.)

As for the rushing attack of the Seahawks: there is a lot more value available this week than there was a couple weeks ago when Carson was worth considering in a similar matchup against the Raiders (a matchup that got derailed by the blowout nature of the game, and by Penny soaking up the garbage time work), so he obviously doesn’t stand out, but it won’t be a surprise if he posts a solid game.

I won’t be interested in the Detroit passing attack, but I’ll absolutely add Kerryon Johnson to my early-week list, and I’ll see where he ends up for me as the week moves along. As of this writing, I only have one “Main Slate” game left to research, so I have a pretty strong feel for the slate, and I suspect I will be looking for a way to pay up for at least two of Gurley // Saquon // Conner // Hunt, and I suspect Lindsay will be my favorite underpriced play (assuming Freeman misses for the Broncos). That would squeeze Kerryon off my main team — but if I’m wrong, and I decide to pay down at multiple RB spots (or Lindsay shifts down my list for some reason), Kerryon will be in the conversation alongside Marlon Mack, and above a couple other guys I “don’t hate” for their lower-floor, solid upside in Adrian Peterson and Chris Carson.

BUCCANEERS // BENGALS OVERVIEW

Buccaneers // Bengals sets up as a fun game between two teams that started the season hot and now need a win in order to maintain a straight shot at a playoff berth, with the 3-3 Bucs traveling to take on the 4-3 Bengals. The Bengals are the better all-around team and have been installed as early-week 4.5 point favorites, but offense should be a factor on both sides of this game. The Bengals rank sixth in drive success rate on offense, while the Bucs rank fifth. These teams rank 30th (Cincy) and 28th (Tampa) in drive success rate allowed. Each defense has also been poor in the red zone, with Tampa allowing the highest red zone touchdown rate in the league, and with Cincy allowing the eighth highest. The Bengals rank second in red zone touchdown offense (the Bucs rank 13th).

These teams are also generous in yards allowed per game (Tampa ranks 29th; Cincy ranks 31st) and points allowed per game (Tampa :: 32nd // Cincy :: 28th). Tampa has piled up the most yards per game in the league (the Bengals surprisingly rank 25th in this category — due primarily to them ranking 27th in plays per game, compared to ninth for the Bucs), and each team ranks top 12 in points per game.

This matchup should yield plenty of sustained drives with some splash plays mixed in (each team ranks in the top eight in “most rush plays of 20+ yards allowed” and “most pass plays of 20+ yards allowed”), to go with very few punts and a good chunk of scoring.

BUCCANEERS PASS OFFENSE

The Buccaneers will take on a Cincinnati pass defense that excels at nothing and is poor at nothing — ranking middle of the pack in aDOT, catch rate allowed, and YAC/R allowed. The Bengals have allowed the sixth most receptions and the sixth most yards to wide receivers (driven largely by the Bengals allowing the third most plays per game), but they have allowed only seven touchdowns to wideouts — an average of one per game. The Bengals typically rush only four guys, hoping to get pressure while the extra bodies in coverage clog up the back end, but too often quarterbacks are finding time for a receiver to peel open through the zone, with Cincy ranking 19th in adjusted sack rate. The Bucs’ line has held up fine this year, ranking 13th in adjusted sack rate. Jameis Winston (first in the NFL in average intended air yards) should have enough time throughout this game to look downfield to his lethal quartet of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, DeSean Jackson, and O.J. Howard.

Ryan Fitzpatrick started this year with three straight 400-yard passing games, and since the game against the Bears in which Fitz and Jameis split time, Jameis has contributed yardage totals of 395 and 365. Five of seven teams have passed for 300+ yards against the Bengals this year, creating plenty of room for optimism in this spot for the visiting offense.

For the third consecutive week, Howard and Godwin run the routes that match up best against the opposing defense. Across the last two games, these guys posted the following stat lines:

:: Godwin — 6-56-1 // 5-59-0
:: Howard — 4-62-1 // 5-67-0

These lines don’t stand out against what Godwin and Howard have done in other matchups this year, but this matchup should solidify floor for each player, even in this pass attack that has four guys who genuinely command targets (with two additional guys — in Cameron Brate and Adam Humphries — who are better than most people realize, and who have a not-sexy-for-DFS, but valuable-in-real-life role in this offense).

The other two who command targets are Jackson and Evans. Only five teams have allowed more pass plays of 20+ yards than the Bengals, which bodes well for each of these guys — with Jackson boasting the fourth deepest aDOT in the NFL, and with Evans joining Jackson with eight receptions of 20+ yards (tied for 13th most in the league). Jackson has seen target counts on the year of 5 // 4 // 5 // 8 // 9 // 5, and he has maintained a respectable floor even in the games he has failed to hit — with only one dud on the year. It is genuinely impossible to know for certain the spots in which DJax will hit; but this is an average to above-average spot for him, and he pairs his respectable floor with above-average ceiling.

Evans is usually a tough sell for me, as I prefer to pay up for guys who can provide fantasy points in multiple ways (i.e., yards after the catch — which Evans does not provide, annually ranking near the bottom of the league in YAC per reception), but as a “yardage and touchdown” guy, this is as good a spot as any for him to hit. This shapes up as a high-volume spot for the Bucs’ passing attack as a whole, which will give Evans a chance to push for double-digit looks. As always, he carries multi-touchdown potential — which is primarily what we are targeting when taking a shot with him.

Humphries has seen more downfield looks with Jameis under center, but he is still the “short route” guy in this offense, giving him the least upside of the bunch. Brate is heavily touchdown-dependent, with three touchdowns on the season, but with zero games above four targets.

BUCCANEERS RUN OFFENSE

Peyton Barber missed practice on Wednesday with an unspecified injury — though our assessment of this spot shouldn’t change much from one back to the other (Ronald Jones looked like he was in way over his head in the preseason, and we should remember that this is a high-round draft pick that the Bucs have every incentive to get onto the field — and he has still not been able to leap-frog Barber).

The Bucs’ big issue in the run game has been their offensive line, which ranks 31st in adjusted line yards, leading to Barber averaging 3.5 yards per carry on the year (and Jones averaging 2.6). This is a disappointment, as the Bengals rank 28th in adjusted line yards and 29th in yards allowed per carry. Only five teams have allowed more yards on the ground to running backs — and while these backs are not really equipped to take advantage, only five teams have allowed more yards through the air.

Of course, these backs have had good matchups before, including last week against Cleveland. Barber’s range is somewhere between what he did against Cleveland (3.0 fantasy points) and what he did the week before against Atlanta (20.6 DraftKings/FantasyDraft points; 18.6 FanDuel points). It goes without saying that the lower score is more likely for guys in this backfield, but don’t discount the touchdown-driven upside in large-field tourneys.

BENGALS PASS OFFENSE

The Bengals’ pass offense has been up and down lately, with Andy Dalton failing to crack 250 yards his last three games, after topping 330 in back-to-back games. It may be a stretch, but it is worth noting that both of the games in which Dalton truly struggled (KC // Pit) came against defenses that essentially force quarterbacks to attack downfield. Tampa is allowing a league-average aDOT, and their zone defense is designed to keep the ball short. Of more concrete importance: Tampa ranks 24th in adjusted sack rate this year. Dalton has a long tradition of playing better when he is not pressured, and so far this year he has a 74.4 quarterback rating when pressured and a 97.0 rating when not pressured.

As noted every week: the Bucs tackle well (shaving over 6% off the league-average YAC/R rate), and they don’t allow a lot of downfield passes, but they cannot prevent teams from completing passes, ranking 32nd in catch rate allowed. This leads to drives continuing, and it leads to yards (and receptions) piling up. This is a great setup for A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd — each of whom has a locked-in workload in this offense.

Green is currently riding one of the workload spikes he has seen from time to time throughout his career, with target counts in his last three games of 10 // 12 // 14, up from 8 // 9 // 8 // 8 in the first four games of the season. (These spikes always tend to come in bunches. Incredibly, Green has never, in his entire career, seen double-digit looks in four consecutive games — a personal record he’s in good position to finally break this week.) Green is priced up for his name, but he has the ceiling to justify the price if the targets are there. (Even when the targets don’t spike, Green can sneak in some upside with his red zone role, as evidenced by his five-catch, three-touchdown game against the Ravens.)

Boyd saw his targets dip last week in a poor all-around game for the Bengals, but before that game he had seen target counts on the year of 5 // 9 // 7 // 15 // 7 // 9. He projects for seven to nine looks in this spot, giving him a solid floor, while his own end zone prowess (three touchdowns on seven red zone targets) gives him a solid ceiling.

Behind these guys, C.J. Uzomah has seen erratic usage. Last week, a floundering Bengals team sold out to target Green, leaving behind Uzomah in a good tight end matchup. This is another good matchup for tight ends, so as long as the Bengals spread the wealth the way they did against Pittsburgh in Week 6, Uzomah will have a chance to pick up another respectable game.

BENGALS RUN OFFENSE

The Bucs have a genuinely strong run defense, ranking third in adjusted line yards and 10th in DVOA, while allowing only 3.56 yards per carry to running backs. The Bucs also rank middle of the pack in receptions allowed to running backs. But as noted last week: they do allow a lot of touchdowns to running backs (nine in all so far), as opponents spend a lot of time near the goal line against this Bucs defense that cannot stop drives. Joe Mixon carries only a moderate yardage projection in this spot (lowering his floor), but you could bet on the touchdown upside, hoping for a multi-score game from a back who gets regular touches in the red zone, for a team that projects to punch in three to five scores in all.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

As exciting as the Bucs’ passing attack always is, there is no getting around the fact that they spread the ball around to six different guys — making it difficult for any one guy to post a monster score. I would hand out the following summaries to each guy:

Evans :: Tougher for him to hit slate-breaking ceiling than it is for some of the names priced around him, but he carries a solid floor and a strong ceiling

Jackson :: Great upside, and the floor is…not great, but not back-breaking, either

Godwin :: He has established a reliable range this season, and this matchup sets him up to land in that range once again

Howard :: People are underrating Howard; he is consistently involved with high-upside targets, and this is a good matchup for tight ends (Cincy has allowed the most receptions and the third most yards to the position)

Brate // Humphries :: These two are nothing more than spoilers in this offense, but they could reasonably be added to one or two teams in a multi-entry game stack approach, in case lightning strikes

My favorite play on this side of the ball is Jameis, as he’s the surest bet on the slate for a 300-yard game, and there will be plenty of scoring opportunities. I would be fine playing Jameis without a stacking partner, and in tournaments I would feel comfortable playing him with multiple stacking partners. This offense spreads the wealth enough that no one is guaranteed to hit; but this offense also piles up enough volume that all of these guys carry solid floor, and one or two should hit for ceiling.

On the Bengals, I don’t love the price on Green or Boyd — but realistically, each guy is appropriately priced, rather than overpriced. I’ll have both guys on my early-week list, though on my Main Team, I’ll probably be looking to grab some truly “underpriced” guys instead. I could see playing Dalton (though I like Jameis more), and Mixon carries a lower floor than normal, but his ceiling remains intact with the multi-touchdown potential in place.

REDSKINS // GIANTS OVERVIEW

This game immediately jumps out as one of the least appealing options on the main slate, between a 1-6 Giants team that ranks 27th in points per game and a ball-control, 4-2 Redskins team that ranks 25th in points per game. Washington plays at the eighth slowest pace of play in the league and ranks second in time of possession, and with the Giants ranking 24th in drive success rate allowed on defense, it will be difficult for them to flip the script this week. Washington has grinded out these slow-paced wins riding a short passing attack and a ground-and-pound approach that has them ranked 28th in pass play rate. The Giants rank 17th in yards allowed per carry, and they just traded their best run defender in Damon “Snacks” Harrison to the Lions. Only three teams have allowed fewer opponent plays per game than Washington, which has enabled them to give up the fifth fewest yards per game and the seventh fewest points per game. Compared to the other games on this slate, this one is a snoozer.

REDSKINS OFFENSE

Alex Smith has yet to top 300 passing yards in a game this year, and he has thrown for 220 or fewer yards in three of six games. No player on this team has a 100-yard receiving game.

Yardage “highs” this year have looked like this :: Jordan Reed — 65 yards // Josh Doctson — 42 yards // Maurice Harris — 47 yards // Paul Richardson — 63 yards // Vernon Davis — 70 yards. (Jamison Crowder is expected to miss one more week. He has a yardage high of 55 yards.)

To put all this another way: this offense flows almost entirely through the backfield, as Chris Thompson is the only player on this team to top 70 receiving yards in a game, while Adrian Peterson has been the only other yardage producer, with rushing totals on the year of 96 // 20 // 120 // 6 // 97 // 99. Peterson has maxed out at three targets in a game, and outside of three fluky-long plays (52 yards vs Arizona in Week 1 // 21 yards vs Indy in Week 2 // 24 yards vs New Orleans in Week 4), he has very little upside through the air — but he should push for 100 yards on the ground in this spot, and he has a respectable six carries inside the five-yard-line this year (only five players have more). Only five teams have allowed more rushing touchdowns to running backs than the Giants.

Thompson is expected to play this week, entering with receiving lines of 6-63-1 // 13-92-0 // 1-0-0 // 6-45-0. With Washington likely to control this game and with Thompson returning from a multi-week injury, he’ll likely land on the lower end of his range, but he does have big upside every time he touches the ball.

GIANTS RUN OFFENSE

The most exciting player on the Giants every week right now is Saquon Barkley, who failed to top 100 yards from scrimmage for the first time in his career last week — but who still piled up nine receptions and a touchdown along the way. Big plays have been routine for him, with the most rushes in the NFL of 20+ yards (seven), and with the most rushes in the NFL of 40+ yards (three). For good measure, he has also thrown in a few receiving plays of 20+ yards, and he has scored seven touchdowns — making up for the Giants ranking 29th in red zone touchdown rate by regularly scoring from outside the red zone. He has touch counts on the year of 20 // 25 // 22 // 16 // 19 // 22 // 23.

The matchup is good, but not great for Barkley, as Washington ranks 26th in adjusted line yards and 26th in run defense DVOA, but they are one of only two teams in the league that has yet to allow a run of 20+ yards, and much as they did last week against Ezekiel Elliott and the low-powered Cowboys passing attack, they can sell out to stop Saquon this week and force Eli to beat them.

With all that said: five of the most difficult running back matchups this year have been Jacksonville, Dallas (third fewest yards allowed per rush attempt), Houston (second fewest yards allowed per rush attempt), New Orleans (fewest yards allowed per rush attempt), and Philly (second fewest rushing yards allowed per game). Saquon has posted strong to elite scores in all of those spots. Washington has allowed the third fewest rushing yards per game with their keepaway style of play, but I wouldn’t put it past Saquon to post a big game in this spot.

GIANTS PASS OFFENSE

Washington has been strong against the pass, allowing the fifth lowest aDOT in the league, the seventh fewest passing yards per game, the eighth fewest yards per pass attempt, and the seventh fewest pass attempts on the year. Opposing QBs have been able to sprinkle in 123 rushing yards vs Washington (the 11th most QB rushing yards allowed), with three rushing touchdowns (only three teams have allowed more), but Eli Manning has topped seven rushing yards in a game only once in the last three and a half seasons.

Only five teams in the league have allowed fewer receptions to wide receivers, with Washington dominating the short areas of the field where Eli is comfortable working. According to Football Outsiders’ metrics, only six teams have been more stingy on targets within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage, and no team in football has been tougher over the short middle. Suffice it to say, this is not last week’s matchup against an Atlanta team that invites teams to complete short passes — setting up the one time all year we have really liked this passing attack across the board.

As always: a tough matchup lowers floor, and it lowers chances of hitting ceiling, but it does not erase ceiling altogether. Odell Beckham has double-digit targets in all but one game this year (a nine-target game in Week 2), and he has posted four respectable stat lines in seven games — with two of those stat lines (the two games in which he actually scored a touchdown) popping off as elite games. Fluky or not, Washington has allowed an above-average number of wide receiver touchdowns, and only six teams have allowed a higher red zone touchdown rate. The Giants could use the help, as they have the third lowest red zone touchdown rate in football.

Sterling Shepard has seen target counts in his last five games of 7 // 10 // 7 // 7 // 8 — continuing to see solid volume regardless of who else is healthy and on the field. He has cleared 75 yards in four of his last five games — and while overall volume for the Giants is a concern, we can bank on a solid number of targets being there once again as long as the Giants get their plays, giving him solid floor in a below-average matchup.

Evan Engram has yet to integrate himself into this offense, with only one game all year north of 19 yards receiving, and only one game north of two catches. Washington has been solid against tight ends, allowing the seventh fewest yards to the position.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Given how little Washington aims to do on offense, Peterson is the only guy I like on this side of the ball — and I like Mack, Kerryon, and Lindsay more in his price range. He’s intriguing for his ability to crack 100 yards and punch in one or two touchdowns, making him viable in tourneys on all three sites.

With Saquon carrying the second highest running back price tag on all three sites, and with this being a less-than-ideal matchup, he doesn’t stand out to me as a “priority play,” though at first glance, it’s a tough call on FanDuel and FantasyDraft between Saquon and Hunt (they are priced much closer together on those sites than they are on DraftKings). Hunt’s team has a much higher touchdown projection, which makes me lean slightly his direction — but I trust the floor on Saquon more; and given what he did against the tough Philly defense, I wouldn’t argue against a higher ceiling projection on him either.

Through the air for the Giants, I like both Beckham and Shepard at their respective price tags, but neither stands out as a Tier 1 (high floor, high ceiling) play. Instead, each looks like the sort of guy to potentially take a shot on if multi-entering large-field tourneys — recognizing that the floor is lower than we would optimally like to find for the price, but that the talent-driven (price-considered) ceiling remains strong.

COLTS // RAIDERS OVERVIEW

Two years ago, the Raiders were a 12-4 team that reached the playoffs. Two years.

Last year, the Raiders disappointed at 6-10, which was enough for Jack Del Rio to be sent packing in favor of Jon Gruden — who has quickly dismantled a solid core en route to a 1-5 record in full-on tank mode. This week, Oakland will take on one of the most fun teams in the NFL — a 2-5 Colts squad that ranks first in pace of play, fifth in pass play rate, fourth in plays per game, seventh in most opponent plays per game, ninth in red zone touchdown rate, and 10th in points per game. All of this in spite of playing without Jack Doyle, Marlon Mack, and T.Y. Hilton for much of the year. Mack and Hilton returned last week, and Doyle may return this week.

Oakland is far less exciting on offense (22nd in pace of play, 10th in pass play rate, 14th in plays per game, 30th in most opponent plays per game, 27th in red zone touchdown rate, and 28th in points per game), and they just traded away their enigmatic but powerful perimeter threat in Amari Cooper. Jon Gruden better nail his next couple drafts, or…(or what? — or he’ll get fired and still be paid $10 million a year for the remaining seven or eight years on his contract? Ridiculous). Okay, so Jon Gruden doesn’t have to nail his next couple drafts. Friends in Raider Nation, I feel for you.

Through the first four games of the season, this team — in both the box scores and on film — looked like one of the more exciting offenses in football, ranking top five in yards per game and moving the ball with relative consistency and ease against four above-average defenses in the Rams, Broncos, Dolphins, and Browns (with Derek Carr throwing for a low of 288 yards and a high of 437 in that stretch). The only problem for Oakland during that stretch was an unimaginative and incomplete red zone offense that could not push the ball into the end zone. But in two games since then, the Raiders have looked disinterested. Oakland has crumbled to losses of 10-26 and 3-27, with Carr looking worse in each game. Lone bright spot Marshawn Lynch is now lost for the year, and Amari Cooper has been dumped. At home against the 2-5 Colts, the Raiders are three point underdogs.

COLTS OFFENSE

On a per-play basis, Oakland has been unbelievably inept against the pass — allowing the second deepest average depth of target and the second most YAC per reception in the league, a brutal combination that has led to them ranking dead last in yards allowed per pass attempt. But with Oakland slowing down the pace and ranking 10th in time of possession per drive, they are allowing the third fewest opponent plays per game, which has prevented wide receivers from racking up the sort of stats we would expect. Incredibly, Oakland has allowed the fifth fewest receptions to wide receivers this year. They also rank middle of the pack in yards allowed to wide receivers, and they rank a non-awful 11th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. This is a gorgeous matchup for Andrew Luck and the Colts, just be aware that this projects as a bit of a volume downgrade for Indy, off their blistering pace.

The way to really beat this (old, slow) defense is with speed — with Kenny Stills, Albert Wilson, Jakeem Grant, Tyrell Williams, Austin Ekeler, Brandin Cooks, and others all showing off against this squad. T.Y. Hilton and his 4.34 speed is a great chess piece for Frank Reich in this spot. Hilton should be moved around the formation and given some opportunities to hit. He only saw four targets last week on 60.3% of the team’s snaps, but he had target counts of 11 // 11 // 10 in his other three healthy games, and he should be closer to a full snap rate this week. Luck threw only 23 passes in the turnover-fueled blowout win over Buffalo, after attempting at least 40 passes in each of his previous four games. As long as this game doesn’t get too far out of hand early, Hilton should be in line for nine or more targets once again. While we prefer Hilton on the turf, this game being on the road does increase the chances of the Raiders hanging close.

The other major speed pieces on the Colts are Nyheim Hines (4.38 40 time) and Marlon Mack (4.50 40 — but he plays faster than that). Mack played 37 of 58 snaps last week to only 17 for Hines, though that was at least partially impacted by the flow of the game. Expect Hines to continue getting work on passing downs, with a likely four to six targets (and perhaps a couple carries) flowing his way. Mack should see 15 to 20 carries and a couple targets of his own. Oakland ranks 24th in adjusted line yards (Indy ranks fifth on offense) and has allowed the sixth most yards per carry in the league. One small note in favor of Oakland here: they are above-average when teams try to run to the left — which is where Indy is strongest. Even with that, Mack’s breakaway speed sets up well in this spot.

Behind the speed pieces, Eric Ebron should jump back up to his high-volume role as long as Luck regains volume himself (Ebron has recent target counts of 11 // 10 // 15 // 7 // 7), while Ebron and Doyle will roughly split targets if the latter returns. Oakland has been above-average against tight ends this year, allowing the fewest receptions to the position — one of the few things they have done well.

Chester Rogers, Zach Pascal, and Dontrelle Inman will continue to fill in as fourth and fifth targets in the pass game, with Ryan Grant bypassing all three guys if he returns this week. With Hilton back and Mack healthy, the opportunity for schemed looks has thinned for these guys, but Rogers could see as many as six or seven targets if Luck returns to a pass-heavy script, and the other two (each of whom played over 40 snaps last week) should run into one or two targets along the way.

RAIDERS RUN OFFENSE

Oakland has had a below-average run-blocking unit this year, ranking 20th in adjusted line yards — and they will now be blocking for Doug Martin, who has averaged 3.7 yards per carry on the season after averaging a paltry 2.9 YPC each of the last two years. Martin contributes little in the pass game and will be facing an Indy run defense that ranks 11th in adjusted line yards and 10th in yards allowed per carry.

DeAndre Washington will be active this week and may soak up a few looks behind Martin, but the guy likeliest to stand out in this matchup is Jalen Richard, who has played 45% of the Raiders’ snaps the last two weeks, with target counts of six and eight. On the year, Richard’s target counts look like this: 11 // 0 // 7 // 5 // 6 // 8. The departure of Amari Cooper should further lock him into looks — and while we cannot bank on more than six targets, it seems likely that Richard runs into a couple extra carries and seven to nine looks through the air, against an Indy team that has allowed the second most receptions and the eighth most receiving yards to the position.

RAIDERS PASS OFFENSE

The Raiders’ three-wide sets will now consist of Jordy Nelson, Seth Roberts, and Martavis Bryant — with Jared Cook at tight end. Only one team in the NFL is facing a lower aDOT than the Colts, and they tackle well after the catch, shaving over 12% off the league average YAC per reception — but they are allowing the second highest catch rate in the league, which makes them a solid team to attack in PPR scoring. Only six teams have allowed more plays per game than Indy, and only eight teams have allowed more receptions to wide receivers.

Roberts is used on short routes that yield very little in the way of upside (the last time we saw him, he was hauling in five receptions for a paltry 31 yards), while Bryant is used in a downfield role that matches up poorly with this defense. Roberts has been (maddeningly) involved in the red zone during his time with the Raiders, and Martavis’ role can yield big plays, but “a big game” should be considered an outlier scenario for either of these guys.

Jordy and Cook, on the other hand, appear set for a bump in targets. Checkdown machine Carr has shown an inconsistent connection with Jordy, who has bounced around in the three to eight target range all year. The departure of Cooper should solidify Nelson’s floor at around six targets, with upside for nine or 10 looks — making him an underpriced asset for his role on DraftKings in particular, at 9.4% of the salary cap (Jordy costs even less of the salary cap on FanDuel, but his PPR matchup is devalued there). Of course, we should also note that while Jordy has three touchdowns on the year, he has cleared 48 yards only once — and just because he is the number one receiver on a sinking offense does not mean he will provide value. Consider him a moderate-floor, uncertain-ceiling play — with that 6-173-1 game on his ledger just a few weeks back, but with nothing else in his play this year to indicate another such game is on the way.

Indy has been hit hard by tight ends, allowing the third most receptions and the eighth most yards in the league. Jared Cook has seen erratic target counts on the year (12 // 4 // 6 // 13 // 6 // 2), but as with Jordy, his floor should be shored up a bit, and his ceiling remains intact.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Marlon Mack and T.Y. Hilton stand out to me on the Colts for the way they match up against this Raiders defense — with neither jumping out as “must plays,” but with both in line to be added to my early-week list. I also like Luck quite a bit in this matchup, with volume being the only concern. Hopefully, the Raiders can keep this game close enough for Luck to pile up another 40+ pass attempts. I’ll also consider Hines on the Colts, though I imagine there will prove to be better value available in other spots.

Richard and Cook look like intriguing plays on the Raiders. It won’t feel comfortable to trust anyone on a team that has looked as dysfunctional as this, but each guy carries definite upside. Jordy also stands out as an interesting “floor” piece, with theoretical upside. On a team with very little to work with, Jordy should remain involved.

PACKERS // RAMS OVERVIEW

This game will likely be billed as a matchup of “two marquee teams that could see each other again in the playoffs,” but Aaron Rodgers and his Green Bay Packers are going on the road to take on a 7-0 Rams team, carrying a 3-2-1 record in a very tough NFC North. This is a game the Packers need to win in order to stay on track — especially with “At Patriots,” “At Seahawks,” and “At Vikings” on tap in three of their next four games. (Side note: isn’t “Packers in the playoffs” excellent for television ratings? How on Earth did this team get four road games in a five game stretch, vs the Rams, Patriots, Seahawks, and Vikings? Sheesh.)

The Rams have controlled games so thoroughly this year, they have been able to play at the fifth fastest pace in the NFL in the first half…while playing at the seventh slowest pace in the second half, as it has been that predictable that they will have a lead and be bleeding out the clock. When the Rams have a lead in the second half, they almost become like a bullpen with a great seventh, eighth, and ninth inning guy — putting together long, sustained drives that the defense is incapable of stopping and ripping huge chunks of time off the clock between opponent possessions. This will be a good test for L.A., as the Packers quietly rank a respectable ninth in yards allowed per drive, fourth in plays allowed per drive, and 11th in drive success rate allowed. Only seven teams have allowed fewer yards per game than the Packers, though I should also note that Green Bay has been below-average in red zone defense (only nine teams have allowed a higher touchdown rate), and the Packers’ schedule so far has looked like this:

Bears // Vikings // Redskins // Bills // Lions // 49ers. Those aren’t all bottom-feeders, but only one of those teams (Chicago) ranks top 10 in points per game, and none of those teams rank in the top 10 in yards per game. The Rams rank top three in both categories.

Green Bay should return Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb to the field this week. The Rams should be without Cooper Kupp another week.

In spite of both of these teams playing at an above-average pace, they rank first and second in fewest opponent plays allowed per game.

PACKERS PASS OFFENSE

The Rams have gotten a lot of grief for their defense — getting labeled as an “attackable unit” — but on a per-play basis, they have been much stronger than most realize, allowing the sixth lowest aDOT in the NFL, and combining this low aDOT with better-than-average marks in catch rate allowed and YAC allowed per reception. The Rams rank 11th in fewest yards allowed per pass attempt and ninth in interceptions. They also rank eighth in sacks, after a slow start to the year, and they rank ninth in fewest passing yards allowed per game. As an above-average defense that does not allow much in the way of volume (17 teams have faced more pass attempts, and 24 teams have faced more rush attempts — in spite of the Rams not yet having had their bye), this should be considered a slight “downgrade” matchup for an offense.

While everything I just typed is true, it is also true that Aaron Rodgers has already had “downgrade” spots against the Bears, Vikings, Redskins, and Bills. He failed to top 300 yards in any of those games, but his worst game in that stretch was 265 yards, and he piled up seven touchdowns to only one interception. The last couple weeks, he has been fortunate to hammer a couple of bottom-feeder pass defenses in San Francisco and Detroit (867 combined yards, five touchdowns, no picks), but Rodgers’ credentials as a matchup-proof player are tried and true. Consider this to be a spot that does not elevate expectations for him and his weapons, but still give him expectations for his normal, steady range of production (with the shootout nature of this game giving him an outside shot at a big day).

Rodgers has been locked onto Davante Adams early and often this season, feeding him 28.0% of the team’s targets and 32.3% of the team’s air yards. It is worth noting, if Cobb returns, that Adams had a (still very healthy) 29 targets in the three games Cobb played, compared to an impossible 42 targets in three games without him. The best way to attack the Rams has been on wide receiver screens (a forte of both Adams and Cobb), quick outs (Adams/Cobb), and shots up the left sideline (Adams). Expect each guy to remain involved, with Adams projecting for eight to 11 looks, and with Cobb projecting for six to nine looks. Cobb’s looks will primarily come in the short areas of the field, requiring him to bust a long play or score a touchdown to become valuable. Adams is boosted by his red zone role, with an incredible 15 targets (third in the NFL, behind only Kamara and Smith-Schuster) and six red zone touchdowns (most in the NFL). Only the Falcons, Bucs, and Saints have allowed more touchdowns to wide receivers.

Allison averaged six targets per game when Adams and Cobb were healthy, and that range (four to eight targets) is the likeliest bet here. His aDOT of 13.6 is the deepest on the team, giving him some per-play upside. The Packers will likely find themselves passing quite a bit this week.

As we all know by now, the Rams are best attacked with tight ends — having allowed the fifth most yards to the position. Jimmy Graham is not George Kittle (Kittle is the number one option on his team, with great YAC upside), but Graham did see target counts of 4 // 8 // 7 to start the year with Cobb and Allison on the field. Five to eight targets with moderate yardage is the best bet for Graham, with some upside if he runs into a broken play.

PACKERS RUN OFFENSE

The Philadelphia Eagles are the only team in the NFL that has faced fewer rushing attempts per game than the Rams — which is all part of the game plan for this team, as they are happy to focus on the pass, to give up the seventh most yards per rush attempt in the league, and to know that teams cannot afford to run much on them anyway. The Packers rank second in the NFL in pass play rate, so the run should be a secondary focus in this matchup yet again.

When the Packers do run, they continue to split touches among Aaron Jones (15 touches his last two games), Jamaal Williams (15 touches his last two games), and Ty Montgomery (11 touches his last two games).

RAMS PASS OFFENSE

The Mike Pettine plan of giving up yards on the ground and preventing teams from attacking through the air has worked well thus far, with Green Bay facing the third fewest pass attempts in the NFL. They rank middle of the pack in yards allowed per pass attempt, but only four teams have allowed fewer passing yards per game. It should again be noted that this team has already played Alex Smith, Josh Allen, and C.J. Beathard — none of whom are in the same tier as Jared Goff and the Rams — but this is still a team that filters action to the ground. With the Packers ranking 23rd in yards allowed per rush attempt and 29th in adjusted line yards, the Rams (31st in pass play rate on the year) will continue to feature the run.

This run-leaning approach for the Rams has led to low passing volume, with Goff featuring pass attempt numbers on the year so far of 33 // 32 // 36 // 33 // 32 // 28 // 24. Much as we saw with Carson Wentz last year: low volume can still lead to big games from an efficient, high-powered offense. But as we have seen with Goff across his last two games (fantasy outputs of 8.44 and 16.48), the floor is lowered when volume expectations are less-than-elite.

The Packers’ defense tries to force targets to the outside of the field, hoping that their pass rush (fifth in adjusted sack rate) can create enough disruption to throw off these more difficult passes. (Green Bay has a respectable five interceptions through six games, in spite of the low pass volume faced — while ranking top eight in fewest passing touchdowns allowed.) Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods are both equipped to run these types of routes, though most of Woods’ upside is coming from deep crossing routes. The Packers can be hit on these as well, but teams have mostly avoided such routes against them. Expect both guys to see around seven to 10 targets (depending on how high passing volume needs to get in this spot) — with their usual upside on these looks, but with some floor concerns.

Josh Reynolds has seen only three targets in his last two games, while Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett have combined for seven looks in the last two weeks — with Kupp/Cooks missing most of the Week 6 game, and with Kupp missing all of the Week 7 game. These guys will not get many schemed targets, and will need to run into a big play or a couple touchdowns to become noteworthy plays on the slate.

RAMS RUN OFFENSE

Todd Gurley is the engine of the Rams’ offense, with 24.1 touches per game, and with more red zone touches than any player in football. As noted last week, it’s not even close between Gurley and the number three guy on the “red zone touches” list. Gurley has 50 touches in the red zone. Alvin Kamara has 36. Kareem Hunt is third in the NFL with 22 red zone touches.

The list is just as crazy inside the 10, with Gurley piling up 30 touches, to 23 for Kamara, 18 for Hunt, and no more than 15 for anyone else in the league.

The Packers rank 23rd in yards allowed per carry, and they have allowed a middling five rushing touchdowns.

Because the Packers play keepaway so well, volume projects to be on the lower end of the Rams’ range this week — limiting the likelihood of a true blowup game from fantasy’s best player. But Gurley once again carries the highest raw projection on the slate, and he’s a strong play if you can fit him without sacrificing too much in other spots on your roster.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I expected to love more on the Rams than I do, but the Packers’ style of play really limits the opportunities for huge games against them, as they slow down opponent play volume, and then push opponents toward the ground. All of Woods, Cooks, and Gurley should have a solid game, but given where each of them is priced, I’m not expecting any of them to “smash value.” Or, I should say: I see “smashing value” as an outlier scenario in this spot, rather than as the likeliest scenario. (Naturally, each of these guys still has a shot at big upside in this offense. But I’ll be surprised if Cooks or Woods make my main team over some of the other guys in their price range — and while I’m always happy to play Gurley, there are some strong running backs who are much cheaper than him, and — admittedly early in the week, without all the games yet written up — I don’t expect to find myself moving around salary to “make sure I get him.” I’ll likely be happy to play Conner // Barkley // Hunt at lower prices, and to use those savings to improve my overall roster elsewhere. Again: Gurley has the top raw projection on the slate (as always). But I’m guessing right now I won’t feel like I “have to have him” this week.)

On the Packers’ side, I like Davante Adams, and I would be open to playing Jimmy Graham as well. Graham looks like the sort of guy I would “be comfortable playing, but not necessarily looking to play,” while Adams looks like an early candidate to make my Tier 1 list, and to be seriously considered for my Main Team in Week 8. Still lots to sort through on this slate as I write this (I’m writing up this game before the Bengals // Bucs game or the Broncos // Chiefs game), but he looks like a solid play. I also like Rodgers as a solid play (a guy who doesn’t project for a monster game on paper, but who has a very strong floor and can always go for a monster game in a spot like this).

49ERS // CARDINALS OVERVIEW

There are four teams in the NFL that have yet to win a second game this season. Two of them are playing in this game.

With an incredible eight teams on this 10-game slate carrying a Vegas-implied team total of 25.0 or higher, this game (Over/Under of 43.0; early-week team total of 21.5 for each side) is likely to go very much overlooked in the DFS community. Arizona ranks dead last in plays per game, and they have allowed the second most plays per game. Arizona ranks 31st in points per game and 32nd in yards per game. Seven games into the season, the Cardinals are averaging an unfathomable 220.7 yards per game.

Outside of turnovers (dead last) and sacks allowed (second to last), the 49ers have been much more respectable on offense, ranking middle of the pack in pace, pass play rate, yards, and points. But while the Cardinals will be taking on a below-average San Francisco defense (20th in drive success rate allowed, 19th in yards allowed, and 31st in points allowed), C.J. Beathard and the 49ers will have to contend with an Arizona pass D that ranks seventh in adjusted sack rate and first in aDOT allowed.

It’s not all bad news for San Francisco’s offense, as the sheer number of plays faced by the Arizona D has put a serious strain on them. Add it all up, and Arizona has still allowed the 10th most points per game and the ninth most yards per game.

This game will be mistake-filled, and it will be worth eyeing the DST units on either side, but with a couple bad teams going at it and nothing to lose, I imagine we’ll find at least one or two intriguing plays from this spot.

49ERS PASS OFFENSE

The 49ers’ passing offense matches up like a jigsaw piece with the Cardinals’ defense, as Derek Carr is the only quarterback in the NFL who is throwing the ball shorter than C.J. Beathard on average (his average intended air yards is an incredibly low 6.4), while Arizona has allowed the lowest aDOT in the league.

The way for pass catchers to pile up fantasy points against the Cardinals is in yards after the catch (Arizona allows an above-average catch rate and above-average YAC per reception), but true upside is still difficult to come by, with the Cardinals allowing only eight passing touchdowns all season (the second lowest mark in the league). Only six of these touchdowns have come to wide receivers and tight ends — giving us a below-average offense, taking on a defense that limits upside for pass-catchers. Beathard should be under siege against the Cardinals’ pass rush, leading to plenty of short passes once again. Beathard has been unable to support relevant stat lines from any pass catcher except George Kittle, with Pierre Garcon going a combined 10-87-0 across his last three games, Kendrick Bourne going 5-55-0 in that same stretch, Trent Taylor going 10-79-1, and Marquise Goodwin surrounding his 4-126-2 game with a combined 5-54-1 in a pair of contests. Goodwin is the only guy in this group with upside that stretches beyond “Maybe I’ll get lucky.” Goodwin is in a tough spot for upside against an Arizona defense that has allowed the fourth fewest pass plays of 20+ yards this year.

Unlike last week (when I actually had Kittle saved as my early-week FLEX play, alongside Njoku — before I swapped him for Kerryon (and then moved off Kerryon…ouch), Kittle has a poor matchup against a Cardinals squad that has allowed only 23 receptions to tight ends — just three more than the league-leading trio of Chicago, New Orleans, and Oakland. Because of Kittle’s open-field athleticism, he has a better shot at beating this matchup than the average tight end — but it is a below-average matchup nonetheless.

49ERS RUN OFFENSE

Teams have had the most success on the ground against Arizona — hammering them to the tune of the most rush attempts faced in the league and the most yards allowed in the league. Arizona has allowed an incredible 12 rushing touchdowns through seven games — two more than second place Cleveland. Ten of these rushing touchdowns have gone to running backs, with an additional two receiving touchdowns going to running backs.

Frustratingly, however, the 49ers continue to divvy up work between two backs — with Matt Breida playing only five snaps last week after aggravating his ankle injury, and with Raheem Mostert filling in once again, this time alongside Alfred Morris. Morris has yet to top 67 rushing yards in a game this year and has only six receptions through seven games, making him entirely touchdown dependent. He’ll need a pair of scores to really stand out on the slate — though if Breida misses this week, the work will be locked in for Alf, giving him some floor.

Mostert has piled up 87 and 78 yards the last two weeks, on touch counts of 12 and 11. If Breida misses this week, Mostert could see as many as 14 to 16 touches (assuming San Francisco can keep this game close enough to lean on the run the way other teams have against the Cardinals), though if Breida plays, Mostert’s role (as well as Alf’s role) will become unpredictable once again.

CARDINALS PASS OFFENSE

I am actually, honestly excited for this side of the ball — and while I will aim to balance my expectations with the fact that there are a ton of games on this slate with good offenses in high-scoring spots (i.e., the Cardinals will likely be a team I target in large-field, low-dollar tourneys as part of a multi-entry strategy — rather than being a team I harvest multiple plays from on my main team), I do think there will be some good production here.

Let’s start with the offensive coordinator change — from dinosaur Mike McCoy to 38-year-old, former first-round pick, former Bruce Arians assistant Byron Leftwich. To be clear: there is not a ton that a coordinator can change in a week and a half — and with the Cardinals on bye next week, the focus here should be on keeping things simple. There has been talk (both from inside and outside the organization) that there are a few clear mandates on Leftwich: 1) identify the strengths of the Josh Rosen passing attack, and call plays that focus on those, 2) simplify the thought processes for Rosen so he can react and play a bit more freely, and 3) figure out how to get David Johnson involved “in a manner similar to how he was involved under Arians.” That third mandate has not been inferred from chatter, but has been publicly stated by Wilks. There have also been whispers that Leftwich will incorporate more pre-snap movement and creative alignments to actually put strain on the defense (thank goodness), and that he will start calling a more vertically-oriented offense.

There should be three key ways this week in which the Cardinals can “play to Rosen’s strengths, simplify the playbook, and get DJ more involved.” Those three key ways are named Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, and David Johnson.

Fitzgerald has recent target counts of 7 // 3 // 8 // 8, and while he has not topped 40 yards since Week 1, he’ll have a chance here to do a bit of damage with the ball in his hands against a San Francisco team that ranks bottom three in YAC allowed per reception. Naturally, Fitz’s low-aDOT role gives him a lower floor than “seven to eight targets” suggests, but this is a quietly good spot for him to exceed his typical range.

Kirk has recent target counts of 5 // 4 // 7 // 6, showing his upside with a 3-85-1 game and a 6-77-0 game in the last three weeks. Expect Leftwich to work Kirk away from Richard Sherman, and to scheme him a couple touches close to the line of scrimmage as well. Kirk appears to have a solid floor and a quietly solid ceiling for his price (9.0% of the salary cap on DraftKings and FanDuel; 8.8% on FantasyDraft).

And after recent target counts of 3 // 2 // 2 // 3, we can comfortably project DJ to see at least twice as many looks as his recent norm, with five to seven targets being a comfortable range to project — along with the 18+ touches he has seen in three of his last four games. DJ has six carries inside the five-yard-line (sixth in the NFL), and he has six of the Cardinals’ 12 touchdowns on the year. San Francisco has allowed only four yards per carry to running backs, ranking 17th in the league in fewest rushing yards allowed to the position; but they have allowed 45 running back receptions — only four fewer than a Kansas City team that has allowed the second most in the league. DJ looks like a decent-floor, solid-ceiling play.

Behind these three, Ricky Seals-Jones and Chad Williams will pick up the remaining pieces in this bad offense. Williams saw eight targets last week, but he is no better than fourth in this attack right now, and he is the likeliest guy to be used in occupying Sherman, making it difficult for him to hit. RSJ has topped 35 yards only twice all year, while the 49ers have allowed the ninth fewest receptions to the position.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

This is only the third game I have written up on the main slate, so I don’t know for certain — but at his price (and given the poor team he still finds himself on), I don’t imagine I will end up rostering David Johnson myself. I do know I like James Conner more, and there are a few other high-priced guys I have not yet researched who I expect to like more as well (Saquon Barkley and Kareem Hunt stand out to me in particular — with Todd Gurley obviously on the list as well). But I do think we’ll see a nice game from DJ, and I wouldn’t be averse to taking a shot on him in tourneys.

Fitz is a floor guy, but I’ll likely feel I can target more certain ceiling (I nearly wrote “better ceiling,” but I do believe Fitz has a couple more big games in him before he retires; I’m just not sure we’ll have any ability to see those games coming).

Kirk stands out to me as a guy with really nice upside for his price — especially in this matchup, where he will catch downfield passes with opportunity for YAC-driven splash plays. Leaning on a rookie wide receiver in a poor offense is always uncomfortable, but this is a nice spot for Kirk to keep his solid run intact.

On the other side, I don’t plan to target anything — though it won’t surprise me if Kittle has another solid game, as he’s good enough to hit in a difficult matchup. I also think Mostert will become interesting if Breida misses — and while I can’t see myself pulling the trigger on a timeshare back on a bad offense, he would be worth a spot on my list (and a bit more late-week research) for the guaranteed touches in a good spot.

SAINTS // VIKINGS OVERVIEW

This game will be a blast for the Showdown slate, and like last week, it appears to be a “FantasyDraft Special,” where those of us who made it to Round 2 of the One Week Season Survivor contest (along with the rest of us who are hunting overlay and rake-free H2Hs and softer player pools on FantasyDraft) will end up wanting to rework our “Main Slate” DraftKings roster to account for the good stuff in play later in the day. Saints // Vikings gives us a rematch of one of the most memorable playoff games in recent history, with a red hot 5-1 Saints team taking on a 4-2-1 Vikings squad that has turned things around of late. It is highly likely that one of these two teams will have a first-round bye in this year’s playoffs, and this game will go a long way toward deciding which team that will be.

Offense has been the name of the game for the Saints, as they rank second in the league in points per game and sixth in the league in yards per game (Minnesota ranks 14th and 13th), while New Orleans has given up the sixth most points per game. (It should be noted that the Saints rank only 16th in yards allowed per game — and if they ever figure out how to clean up their red zone defense (30th in red zone touchdown rate allowed), they will become a middling unit, rather than a unit we should go out of our way to pick on.) New Orleans ranks first in drive success rate on offense — and while Drew Brees has a lengthy history of playing better at home, he also has a lengthy history of playing better indoors, and this game will be played in the friendly conditions of U.S. Bank Stadium.

For their part, the Vikings have been turning things around on defense of late, allowing recent point totals of 21, 17, and 17 (two of those games came vs Arizona and the Jets, but the other came at Philly). The Vikings’ pass rush has been coming together (10th in adjusted sack rate), and their run defense has continued to look solid (fourth in yards allowed per carry). The one big issue for the Vikings has been on the back end — and this issue will be exacerbated in Week 8 with Xavier Rhodes expected to miss.

SAINTS PASS OFFENSE

While the Saints prefer to lean run-heavy these days (19th in pass play rate on the season; 28th over their last three games) — an approach that is further emphasized when Mark Ingram is on the field — it is the passing attack that is likeliest to find success in this spot. New Orleans ranks fourth in pass offense DVOA and sixth in run offense DVOA, creating a “strength on strength” matchup for their run game, and a “strength on weakness” matchup for their passing attack.

After his scorching hot start to the season (40 targets through the first three games, with an obviously unsustainable 95% catch rate), Michael Thomas has slowed down significantly the last three games for the Saints, with 15 total catches on 18 total targets. Thomas had only two games all of last year under eight targets (with only one game all year north of 11 targets), and even with passing volume trickling down for Brees once again, Thomas should be locked into the same eight to 11 looks he was seeing last year. As always, it is worth noting that Thomas has an aDOT of only 6.9 this year — putting him alongside names like Danny Amendola, Randall Cobb, Jarius Wright, and Chester Rogers — so he needs touchdowns or big volume to really bust out for a big game (he topped 100 yards only twice last year). But he is a high-floor play, and the red zone usage is there, with Thomas ranking fourth in the NFL in targets inside the 20.

Alvin Kamara is the other core piece of this passing attack, with the most red zone targets in the NFL — though it has been concerning to see his targets drop to four and two in a pair of games since Ingram returned. The four-target game came in a blowout of Washington, but his two-target game came last week in a back-and-forth affair against a Ravens team that is tough to beat on the ground. Only four teams have allowed fewer running back receptions than the Ravens…and only five teams have allowed fewer running back receptions than the Vikings — so there should be at least some concerns that Kamara’s low-reception usage repeats in this spot. (Obviously, Kamara still possesses upside with his carries, and he punched in a touchdown from the two-yard-line last week — reminding us that both Kamara and Ingram were used near the goal line last season. Optimally, you hope he sees a spike in targets this week if rostering him, but he still has an outside shot at hitting without the aerial looks.)

Ingram once again soaked up a healthy number of touches last week, piling up 14 touches in a close game one week after seeing 18 touches in a blowout. This matchup is not too different from the tough spot in which Ingram struggled last week (12 carries for 32 yards against a Ravens team that ranks fifth in fewest yards allowed per carry; Minnesota ranks fourth), and he will need a long play or a multi-touchdown game to make a dent. Minnesota has allowed only one rushing touchdown to running backs, and they are one of only two teams in the league that has not yet allowed a run play of 20+ yards.

On the flip side of that, Minnesota has allowed the third most pass plays of 20+ yards, and they are tied with five other teams (including the Saints) for most pass plays of 40+ yards. Enter Tre’Quan Smith, who has seen target counts of three and six since Ted Ginn was lost for the year, on a 71.6% snap rate. With Brees throwing only 59 passes across those two games, there is room for Smith to see five to seven looks in this spot if the Saints lean on the pass a bit more heavily. Smith has plenty of “bust” to his game, but his downfield speed and deep ball role keep “boom” on his side as well.

This offense wraps up with Ben Watson (recent target counts of 6 // 3 // 4 // 6) and Cameron Meredith (a disappointing 25.4% snap rate last week, with zero targets — an outlier, perhaps, but he is deep down the pecking order right now). Last week, the NFL Edge mentioned (but failed to really highlight) the fact that the matchup vs the Ravens set up well for Watson — as I stated in that spot that Watson’s volume wouldn’t match up to Njoku’s, and that Njoku was the tight end against whom we should be judging other plays in Week 7. This was true, but it passed up the opportunity to roster Watson as a cheap FLEX play who posted a solid game (6-43-1). Without the touchdown, that line would have been far less useful, but that’s often the name of the game at the lower end of the price range. The Vikings are tied with the Ravens for the sixth most receptions allowed to the position, and only three teams have allowed more yards. Nothing is guaranteed in this many-mouthed offense, but Watson shapes up nicely for another five or six looks.

VIKINGS OFFENSE

The Vikings also have a tough matchup on the ground, as the Saints have given up the fewest yards per carry in the NFL, and no team has allowed fewer rushing yards per game. Teams are all but abandoning the run against this team (17.3 running back rush attempts faced per game) — an approach that makes sense, as New Orleans is much more attackable through the air. This week, it will once again be Latavius Murray carrying the load for Minnesota — with two touchdowns last week keeping his glossy stat lines going, but with him failing to crack 70 rushing yards for the sixth time in seven games. Against a New Orleans team that has allowed 3.1 yards per carry and only two rushes all year of 20+ yards, Murray will need big volume or another multi-touchdown game to be a difference-maker. Consider him a yardage-and-touchdown back in a difficult matchup.

This swings us over to the easiest passing attack in the NFL to break down, with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs combining for over 71% of the air yards on this team.

We’ll start with Thielen, who is running 61% of his routes out of the slot and will see plenty of coverage liability P.J. Williams. Not that matchup matters much for Thielen — who is one of the best route runners in football, and whose connection with Kirk Cousins has been sublime — but Williams ranks 96th in receptions allowed per coverage snap, while allowing a 73.9% completion rate on passes into his coverage. Thielen has double-digit targets and at least 100 yards receiving in all seven games this year (an NFL record), and the Saints are ill-equipped to slow him down on the interior of the defense.

Pro Football Focus believes that newly-acquired Eli Apple will shadow Diggs (rather than Marshon Lattimore — who has sometimes struggled to contain shiftier receivers), but either way, there are very few corners who match up well in man coverage vs Diggs — and since New Orleans plays plenty of man coverage, this plays to his favor. Diggs saw only four targets against the stingy perimeter defense of the Cardinals two weeks ago and then saw usage primarily within five yards of the line of scrimmage last week in a windy game at the Meadowlands (eight catches for only 33 yards, on 14 targets — with four targets of 15+ yards (including two of 40+ yards) that all fell incomplete). New Orleans is tied with the Vikings (along with a few others) for most pass plays of 40+ yards allowed. This is a good rebound spot for Diggs.

Kyle Rudolph and Laquon Treadwell clean up the scraps in this passing attack. Rudolph has four to six targets in five consecutive games — with a max of 57 yards. He’s a touchdown-dependent option against a Saints team that has allowed the fewest tight end receptions in the league. Treadwell continues to run into three to four receptions (he has exactly that number in five straight games), but he has yet to top 47 yards, and he has only one touchdown all year — with almost none of his looks being schemed looks.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Surprisingly, Thielen is the only play that really pops out on the main slate, with Kirk Cousins and Diggs always worth rolling onto the same roster as him if you want to try to capture all the upside from this passing attack at once. The Vikings project to score three touchdowns through the air in this spot, and the likeliest scenario has all three of these landing on Thielen and Diggs.

On the Showdown slate, touchdown and YOLO shots can be taken on Rudolph and Treadwell, respectively. There is obviously a case to be made for Latavius as a touchdown-dependent play as well on the Showdown, though his floor clocks in pretty low in this spot.

The Saints should score three or four touchdowns of their own while producing decent yardage, but there isn’t much in this spot that points to predictable blowups from any individual players. Thomas will carry a solid floor with all the targets he’ll see, but because he sees these targets so close to the line of scrimmage, he’ll need a touchdown or two to justify his price. Same goes for Kamara — who has monster upside in any matchup, but whose floor is still not reflected in his price. Hopefully he gets more involved in the pass game in this one — even with the Vikings’ defense ranking near the top of the league in fewest receptions allowed to the running back position. Ingram will need a multi-touchdown game to carry weight; Smith will need to connect on the deep passes he will see in order to be a “boom” instead of the “bust” that his limited volume leaves him at risk of being; and Watson should post a solid yardage game, but with his volume capped, he’ll need a touchdown in order to really pay off. Meredith is a wildcard. Brees should have one of the stronger games on the Showdown, but he’s unlikely to hold up to some of the other plays available on the full weekend (or the full Sunday) slate.

PATRIOTS // BILLS OVERVIEW

It’s always dangerous to assume that any division game is a predictable blowout, and Sean McDermott has been a genuinely quality coach during his time with the Bills — always getting this team to play hard, in spite of no clear cause for optimism.

With that said, the Patriots have won their last two games at Buffalo by 16 and 20 points, and the Bills will be trotting out a shell of an NFL offense, headlined by Derek Anderson at quarterback, Kelvin Benjamin and Zay Jones at wide receiver, and — with LeSean McCoy likely to miss this week — Chris Ivory at running back. Unless the Patriots commit multiple turnovers in their own territory, it’s difficult to see this Bills team putting many points on the board.

On the other side of this matchups: the Patriots can always put up points, but players have consistently produced below-average box score results against the Bills this season, and only three teams in the league have allowed fewer yards per game. On the full-weekend slate, this game is unlikely to produce many standout plays. On the Showdown slate, there will be such a narrow band of “above-average plays,” you will essentially be forced to take suboptimal plays in order to have any differentiation at all — making this a good night to just simply take a break, or to load up on NBA play in place of NFL.

Did I lose you yet?

Is my dad the only one still reading this? (I think he reads every Patriots game.) (Hi, Dad. Go Pats!)

Okay — for those of you who are (for some reason) still with me, let’s dig in.

PATRIOTS PASS OFFENSE

Only two teams in the NFL have allowed a lower average depth of target than the Bills, and only seven teams have allowed a lower YAC per reception rate — leading to the Bills ranking third in the league in fewest yards allowed per pass attempt, while ranking fourth in fewest passing yards allowed per game.

The goal of the Bills is to get after the quarterback (9th in adjusted sack rate), and to force teams to flatten out their routes — making pass catchers catch the ball while moving from sideline to sideline, rather than allowing them to catch passes while moving upfield. With the Bills mastering this approach, it has been tough for teams to hit for many big plays, with only the Jaguars allowing fewer pass plays of 20+ yards this season, and with only the Ravens and Colts allowing fewer pass plays of 40+ yards.

In talking specifically about wide receivers: the Bills have allowed only 135.7 receiving yards per game — with only the Ravens and Jaguars allowing fewer. This obviously makes it difficult for any individual player to go for more than 60 or 70 yards — but the best bet for production is Julian Edelman, who should avoid Tre’Davious White for much of this contests, having run 67% of his routes from the slot (where White has traveled only 3% of the time). Edelman has seen target counts of 9 // 7 // 8 since returning to the field, and if we remove touchdowns (i.e., looking only at receptions and yardage), he projects to post the highest score on the slate among wide receivers on either side. As for touchdowns: the one area where Buffalo has struggled this year has been in the red zone, where they have allowed the sixth highest opponent touchdown rate in the league. This has led to a middling seven wide receiver touchdowns, and Edelman (seven red zone targets already through three games) is as good a bet as any pass catcher on this team to score from in close.

Among the 96 cornerbacks who have faced at least 20 targets this year, Tre’Davious White ranks first in fewest receptions allowed per coverage snap. That “20 target” mark is a fair one to choose…because in spite of ranking 16th in the NFL in coverage snaps, White has faced only 21 targets all season — an average of three targets per game. That is sensational. Through seven games, White has allowed 12 catches (90 cornerbacks have allowed more) for 147 yards (93 cornerbacks have allowed more) — in spite of White regularly matching up against an opponent’s best weapon. White should stick with Josh Gordon for much of this week, making Gordon little more than a “shot in the dark, hope for a touchdown” play.

Chris Hogan should benefit from the attention on Gordon and the likely absence of Rob Gronkowski, but unlike last week, the matchup does not set up well for production. He ranks a bit higher than Zay Jones in this game…which says a lot about the sort of game this is.

If Gronk plays, he’ll match up against a Bills team that is middling against the tight end. For whatever you feel it’s worth: Gronk grew up in Buffalo, and he has gone for 94+ yards in six of seven career games in Buffalo (the one exception being a 54-yard, two touchdown game in his rookie year), and he has scored at least one touchdown in five of his seven games in Buffalo. If Gronk plays, he’ll be fighting through a bad back, and this is obviously a better Buffalo defense than many of those Gronk saw in years past.

PATRIOTS RUN OFFENSE

Buffalo is best attacked on the ground, though they have still been solid in this area, ranking 15th in yards allowed per carry and 16th in yards allowed per game. The Bills have allowed nine touchdowns to running backs — six rushing, three receiving.

With Sony Michel set to miss this game, James White will operate as the upside leader, while Kenjon Barner will fill a portion of the role Michel is leaving behind. In his previous three games, Michel had carry counts of 25 // 18 // 24. White spiked to a season-high 11 carries last week after Michel went down, while seeing an incredible double-digit targets for the third time in four games. There were whispers when the Patriots drafted Michel that this team hoped to replicate some of the things New Orleans was doing with Ingram and Kamara — and that is essentially how White has been featured this year, in the “Alvin Kamara role.” Barner should see 12 to 16 carries of his own (where he will be dependent on yardage and touchdowns — same as Michel before him), while White should take on a bigger role in all phases of the offense.

BILLS PASS OFFENSE

It seems silly to even worry about “matchup” when talking about this embarrassing Bills passing attack. Unbelievably, the quarterbacks on this team have combined for an average of 156 passing yards per game. That is not a typo. Through seven games, the Bills have three total passing touchdowns. Usually, we’re hunting for three passing touchdowns in a game.

Stephon Gilmore has excelled this year in the Patriots’ secondary, ranking sixth in the NFL in receptions allowed per coverage snap — with 16 catches allowed for 173 yards (numbers not too far off what White has been doing on the other side). There have been 37 passes thrown into Gilmore’s coverage, and only 43.2% of these passes have been completed. Gilmore should primarily stick to Benjamin, who has caught only 37.8% of the passes thrown in his direction this year.

Zay Jones has yet to top four receptions in a game this year (he has hit that mark only once), and he has topped 38 receiving yards only once. A bet on Jones is a bet on a busted play, or on an unpredictable visit to the end zone.

This passing “attack” rounds out with Andre Holmes (eight catches on the year) and Charles Clay (who has topped 29 yards only once — a scintillating 4-40-0 game at Green Bay).

BILLS RUN OFFENSE

If McCoy gets cleared from concussion protocol in time, he will be the clear top play on this side of the ball, with touch counts in the two games before his concussion of 26 and 19, and with a still-superior skill set. The Patriots have allowed only two rushing touchdowns to running backs all year, but they do rank 24th in yards allowed per carry, and the best (only?) way for Buffalo to move the ball will be by attacking the Patriots’ slow linebackers through the air (only four teams have allowed more receptions to running backs than the Pats).

If McCoy fails to get cleared in time, Ivory (36 snaps last week) and Marcus Murphy (18 snaps last week) will split the load. In spite of the Bills getting trounced 5-37 against the Colts, Ivory saw 16 carries (to go with a surprising three catches on six targets) — as the Bills seem content to simply run out the clock in games when they fall behind at this point, rather than exposing themselves to more embarrassment at the hands of their quarterback situation. Buffalo ranks 26th in pace of play on the year, in spite of their 2-5 record.

Murphy saw four carries and six targets of his own, and something in that range should be expected if McCoy does indeed miss.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

White is the prize play on this slate, and I like him enough that I would even consider him in tourneys on the full-weekend slate. But outside of White, it’s pretty ugly, with Edelman carrying the highest on-paper floor, and with the rest of floor rankings looking like this:

Floor :: Tom Brady // Patriots DST // Ivory // Stephen Gostkowski // Barner // Gordon // some mix of Anderson, Zay Jones, Kelvin, Clay, Murphy, and Steven Hauschka.

If Gronk plays, his floor will be tough to nail down, as his role has been smaller than normal this year (only one game with 100 yards; only one touchdown all season; no games with more than eight targets), and he will be playing through a back injury in a game the Patriots will likely have in hand early, but he obviously carries upside any time he is on the field.

Ceiling on the rest of these players is tougher to sort through behind White, as much of “ceiling” will come down to touchdowns — which are the least predictable element in NFL DFS, and therefore introduce the most variance. If playing this slate, I would probably staple White to 100% of my teams (with Edelman on at least 50% or 60%), and then I would “tell different stories” with the rest of each roster, trying to mess around with various ways in which this game could play out.