XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

We’re already at Week 6, and it starts with Philly visiting New York for a 40.5 total game (which has moved down 3 points from the opening line) with the Eagles favored by 7 or 7.5 points depending on where you look. 

NEW YORK

On the New York side, Tyrone Tracy looks likely to return to the field after being hurt early in Week 3. Tracy, however, was already being displaced in the backfield. He played the lead role in Week 1, but then in Week 2, he was out-snapped by rookie Cam Skattebo and also out-touched 14 to 10. Skattebo has played well since taking on the lead back role with 90+ scrimmage yards in his last three games, including catching 14 of 17 targets. The role here is robust, and my expectation here is that Tracy probably slides into the RB2 role currently occupied by Devin Singletary rather than having much impact on Skattebo. As a big underdog, this doesn’t immediately jump out as a great running back spot, but Skattebo’s large passing game role keeps him firmly in play and somewhat game script immune, and Philly is also allowing a whopping 4.7 yards per carry to opposing teams so far this year. $10k is a premium price, and it’s tough to pay given that the field will want to play a lot of Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley. I actually quite like Skattebo here, and I think he’s likely to go a bit underowned. Tracy at $7k is a tough click in a small role – he’s a highly contrarian tourney option in case the Giants do something unexpected and give him his RB1 job back, while Singletary is likely to see his role shrink down to just a handful of snaps.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, Jaxson Dart has looked at least somewhat capable to start his NFL career. He led the Giants to a win against the Chargers and then struggled on the road against the Saints with 3 turnovers, but also accounted for 2 passing touchdowns and ran for 55 yards. His rushing ability keeps his floor solid (he scored 18.6 DK points last week despite the 3 turnovers). Of note is that after taking 5 sacks in his first start, New Orleans only sacked him once on a massive 40 pass attempts. Of those 40 attempts last week, we saw 7 targets each to Skattebo, Wan’dale Robinson, and Theo Johnson, 6 to Darius Slayton, 4 to Daniel Bellinger, 3 to Jalin Hyatt and Beaux Collins, and 2 to Devin Singletary. Positionally, that’s 18 targets to the wide receivers (with very little success. The wideouts only accounted for a grand total of 9 catches and 68 yards between them). Wan’dale is the safest option here as the clear WR1 without Malik Nabers, and $7.2k looks attractive at first glance, but he’s gone back to his near-0 aDOT role since the QB switch (remember he was playing more downside with Russ at QB, but since Dart took over, he’s playing super close to the line of scrimmage). That leaves him reliant on either a ton of catches, a broken YAC play, or a touchdown to find a ceiling. He’s fine from a volume perspective as he’s likely to see plenty of targets, but there’s not a lot about this matchup that makes him attractive beyond that. Darius Slayton seems likely to miss (Q tag, designated no practice on Tuesday’s walkthrough, short week), but we’ll see. Should Slayton play, he’ll be in his deeper role with a quarterback who is not throwing deep (ranked 31st in adjusted air yards per pass attempt). That’s a tough spot for Slayton to succeed in, as he doesn’t have Wan’dale’s YAC ability, and he’s priced just $600 less. While Slayton always has some “boom” to his profile, he’s far more likely to bust in this matchup. Consider him a highly variant tourney play with low odds of hitting (but he CAN hit). If Slayton misses, Jalin Hyatt is basically a direct replacement for him. Hyatt has a massive aDOT of 28.3 yards (albeit on just 3 targets this season), but much like Slayton, he has a very boom/bust profile and is more likely to bust. Unlike Slayton, Hyatt is just $3.2k. Assuming Slayton misses, Hyatt is basically the same play for a much cheaper price, which means I like him a fair bit more. Hyatt is also still playable if Slayton plays; he’s just likely to see fewer snaps and targets, but he’ll still be on the field. Collins is also a guy we’ve barely seen with 3 targets this year and a 4.7 yard aDOT – he’s playing much closer to the line of scrimmage, giving him very little upside unless he catches a touchdown. If Slayton’s out, we also might see Gunner Olszewski or a practice squad wideout called up. They won’t project well at all, but would make for an interesting tournament dart as they’ll likely be almost unowned but will still see some reasonable field time, and it’s even possible they play ahead of Hyatt or Collins.

At tight end, Johnson and Bellinger are splitting some time, with Johnson in the larger role. Worth noting is that the Giants played their highest rate of 12 personnel last week, which led to 11 targets for the tight ends as a group, including scoring both of New York’s touchdowns. The yardage upside here is fairly modest, but it looks like Dart is showing some preference for throwing to tight ends early in his NFL career (Johnson also tied for the team lead in targets in Dart’s Week 4 start). At $5,800, and leading the team in targets in each game with Dart, Johnson looks a bit underpriced here, though the Eagles D has been a difficult matchup for opposing tight ends thus far (I don’t personally put a lot of stake into positional matchup for tight ends because different teams use their tight ends in such different ways, but your mileage may vary). Bellinger won’t be on the field nearly as much, but at $2,800, he represents a reasonable value option. I’d prefer the two cheap Giants wideouts if Slayton misses, though. 

PHILADELPHIA

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 6 has another international game as the Broncos and the Jets will play in London in the hopes of finally convincing the British what “football” really is. This game has a 43.5 total, and the Broncos are favored by 7.5 in most spots, as the market seems to have no faith in the Jets, and probably with good reason. Happily, we have essentially clean injury reports, at least of the players who we can roster in Showdown play.

NEW YORK

On the Jets side of things, with Braelon Allen being on injured reserve, Breece Hall’s snap count was still stuck in the low 60s (62% to be exact), and he saw 19 opportunities. The game script got away from the Jets a bit in this one and affected the run game play. I expect Hall would have gotten over 20 opportunities if the game had been close, but that’s been a problem for the Jets pretty consistently this season. Hall is plenty talented, but it seems like the Jets aren’t willing to give him the kind of workloads we see for the few true bell cows in the league, but he’s also not priced like, say, CMC at $9,800. With solid receiving work to boost his floor and no Allen to steal goal-line touches, I’m fine with Hall, but I prefer some of the other expensive options. Backup Isaiah Davis saw 5 opportunities last week, 4 of them being targets, and while he’s a little pricey for an RB2 on a mediocre offense at $4k, he’s still in somewhat playable territory. 

In the passing game, Garrett Wilson is playing almost every snap and is 3rd in the league with a massive 32.9% target share. He’s the clear primary option, and his route tree should at least partially keep him away from top Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain. He’s spendy, but I think given the likeliest game script, I prefer him to Hall (it’s fairly close, though, and I wouldn’t fault you if you preferred Hall instead). The Broncos other wide receivers are going to be Josh Reynolds, Arian Smith, and then Tyler Johnson will probably get some snaps back as Allen Lazard is hurt and will miss this game. Reynolds is playing a lot of snaps but only has 9 targets in three games played. Smith’s snap share seems to be trending up a bit, but only 5 targets. Johnson had three games of 70%+ snaps with 6 targets to show for it. These guys are all thin options because even the guys on the field aren’t really getting targets – the pass volume is flowing through Wilson, Hall, and then the tight end. They’re all cheap and thus playable. Reynolds is the one who’s going to project the most, but I’d lean towards Smith personally, as I think he’s the player whose role is probably on the increase, and he’s also only $1,200. I’d rank these guys as Smith, then Reynolds, then Johnson.

At tight end, Mason Taylor has really been carving out a role for himself lately with 6, 7, and then 12 (!) targets in the Jets last three games. I’d project him for around 6-8 here, and at $5,200, that’s very reasonable for his price, even if the per-target upside is relatively modest. I expect he’s going to be popular as he’ll probably outproject the kickers he’s priced near, but on paper, he’s a strong option on a very concentrated Jets target tree. TE2 Jeremy Ruckert has more targets on the year than Smith and Johnson, so even though his snaps are modest, he’s still hanging around the same level of viability as those guys.

DENVER

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• Kyler Murray could miss this game, which would change the dynamic of the Cardinals’ offense. The Cardinals are relatively healthy outside of Murray. 
• CB Kenny Moore missed practice on Wednesday with an Achilles injury, but other than him, the Colts are relatively healthy.  
• The Colts’ offense has been one of the biggest surprises of the year. They are tied with the Lions for the most red-zone drives per game.
• Jonathan Taylor rarely leaves the field and would likely be the RB1 if we were redrafting today.
• All the Colts pass catchers are affordable, but Taylor does so much of the scoring, they are all starting to feel like floor rather than ceiling plays. 
• This is an important game for the Cardinals to stay alive in a tough division after one of the worst loses a team can experience last week.
• Michael Carter was the clear lead back last week, and after Emari Demarcado’s end-zone antics, he could see an even bigger role.
• Is Marvin Harrison Jr. good at football? Your answer to that question should dictate if you consider him for DFS. He probably benefits if Murray sits. 
• Trey McBride’s price has been falling as he fails to post a big game, but his usage metrics remain strong.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How arizona Will Try To Win ::

The 2-3 Cardinals are entering Week 6 after one of the most disappointing losses of the year. The Redbirds were up, 21-6, in the fourth quarter, with Demercado strolling into the end zone at the end of a 52-yard run. Sadly, Demercado, as so many have before him, decided to hit the Griddy before taking care of the technicality of scoring a touchdown. It was all downhill from there, as the 0-4 Titans ripped off 17 straight fourth-quarter points to steal the win. Johnathan Gannon was fined $100,000 for his “altercation” (in my day this was called getting chewed out by a coach for being stupid) with Demercado on the sidelines. This is the type of game you should never lose, and one you can’t lose if you’re going to be a contender. The Cardinals have been playing slowly (29^th in second per play), but they’ve also been aggressive (seventh in PROE). Favoring the pass makes sense when you consider the state of their RB room. Carter was on the practice squad two weeks ago, Demercado can’t be trusted, and most of us thought Bam Knight was a Batman villain before last week. The Cardinals’ O-line has also been good (No. 7-ranked by PFF), but had a rough week, falling three spots in the rankings after giving up 12 pressures against a previously lackluster Titans pass rush. 

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The Colts have been below average (18^th in DVOA) against the run and middling (15^th in DVOA) against the pass. The Colts’ defense doesn’t stand out based on DVOA, but they have been hard to score against (fifth-fewest points allowed) and are generating pressure (2.8 sacks per game). It’s worth noting that while the Colts limited the three weaker offenses (MIA/TEN/LV) they’ve faced to a combined 34 points, they haven’t been as good against the two better offenses (DAL/LAR) they’ve faced, allowing 55 combined points in those games. Drew Petzing hasn’t shown himself to be an adaptable coordinator, and the Colts’ defense doesn’t present a clear path of least resistance. The Cardinals have been leaning into a pass-heavy approach and with the state of their RBs, they are going to try and win through Harrison and McBride. Expect another pass-heavy gameplan. 

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Chargers have scored, and allowed, 19.6 points per game; the Dolphins have scored 21.4 points per game while allowing 29.0 points per game.
• Keenan Allen and Ladd McConkey are set up well for volume in this spot (more below).
• Los Angeles’ backfield is not to be trusted here, although a legitimate case can be made to take MME shots on Nyheim Miller-Hines.
• I don’t see clear paths to this game environment taking off. I don’t typically bet game totals, but there is EV to the under.
• Dolphins TE Darren Waller worked up to a 58% snap rate in Week 5.
• The end seems near for Mike McDaniel in Miami.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How LOS ANGELES Will Try To Win ::

The Chargers started the season hot by winning against the Chiefs, Raiders, and Broncos before dropping two consecutive games to the Giants and Commanders. The biggest takeaway from that trend is the injuries to their offensive line, which has led to just 28 total points in the previous two games. The absence of Joe Alt is meaningful for an offense that now ranks third in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and aims to control game environments through long, sustained drives on offense while generating disruption on defense. And for all the things the Dolphins are not, they are actually generating pressure at a higher rate this season than both the Giants and Commanders, the Chargers’ two previous opponents. They are doing so behind the fifth-highest blitz rate in the league. Quarterback Justin Herbert has the fourth-most yards against the blitz this season via a modest 7.8-yard aDOT and solid 64.2% completion rate. But in the last two weeks (when Alt was injured), those numbers drop to a 52.2% completion rate and a 6.4-yard aDOT, again highlighting the drop in efficiency in this offense without Alt. Considering both the absence of Alt and the absences of the team’s top two running backs, I would expect the game plan to be a ball-out-quick offense to limit the time the Dolphins are able to have the football, primarily hitting the short-to-intermediate areas of the field. That aligns with where the Dolphins are allowing production this season, now facing the fourth-lowest defensive aDOT (6.6 yards) while bleeding production from two-high (league-high 0.78 FP/DB allowed on an elevated 60.4% utilization rate).

The injuries to Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton leave the backfield in the hands of Hassan Haskins, Kimani Vidal, and (maybe) Miller-Hines (more on him below). Haskins profiles as an early-down grinder while Vidal brings at least some pass-catching chops to the table, although Miller-Hines represents the clear option in clear passing situations if he’s active. I suspect he will be come Sunday. Considering the heavy blitz rates and heavy two-high rates from the Dolphins, and the absence of the top two backs in addition to Alt, I would expect Miller-Hines to see an elevated role here. Take a minute and go watch his preseason pass-pro reps – the dude is an absolute animal in pass pro and brings elite pass-catching chops to the table. All of that to say, I think we see the Chargers all but abandon the run here in every sense other than keeping the Dolphins honest. Chargers backs averaged just 3.76 yards per carry against the Commanders in Week 5.

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Allen handily leads the team in target rate and targets per route run (TPRR) against two-high this season (25.3% target rate and 0.28 TPRR) with a “natural for the matchup” 7.8-yard aDOT. The tight ends led the team in TPRR against two-high a season ago, opening up some upside potential for the positions. That said, the return of Will Dissly invokes significant uncertainty after Dissly operated as the primary pass-catching option the first two weeks while rookie Oronde Gadsden II was inactive, and Gadsden operated as the primary pass-catching option in Weeks 3-5 with Dissly inactive. I wouldn’t expect any of the likely three tight ends the team has active on Sunday to see more than 50% of the available snaps. McConkey (0.19 TPRR against two-high) and Quentin Johnston (0.17 TPRR against two-high) don’t set up as well on paper as Allen and the tight ends, although both McConkey (0.30 TPRR) and Allen (0.44 TPRR) have ridiculously high TPRR in the niche split of “blitzed and the defense was in two-high” this season (has happened on only 20 dropbacks this season). But that does serve to highlight where the football is likeliest to go through the air in this spot. The ace in the hole, so to speak, for the Chargers this week is potentially Miller-Hines, who was signed to the practice squad after spending the offseason with the team (ultimately let go at roster cuts) following a two-year absence due to a knee injury. Miller-Hines has made a career as a pass-catching specialist and neither Haskins nor Vidal are overly exciting through the air. I could see a scenario where Hines sees an elevated snap rate ahead of Haskins and Vidal. Miller-Hines is not even in the player pool at present (Thursday) and would likely carry zero ownership if he’s added between now and Sunday (for my MME crowd). 

How miami Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• The Steelers’ defense is mostly healthy, with only CB Jaylen Ramsey a threat to miss this game. WR Calvin Austin also missed practice on Wednesday with a shoulder injury. 
• The Browns are remarkably healthy, with only DT Shelby Harris sitting out practice on Wednesday as a veteran rest day. 
• Aaron Rodgers looks like he has a little gas left in the tank, which has caused the Steelers to be more balanced than a typical Arthur Smith offense 
• In typical Smith fashion, the Steelers’ backfield is a messy split between multiple players 
• DK Metcalf has big-play upside, but he’ll have to get there with limited volume. Smith offenses have never supported more than one viable pass catcher. 
• The Browns are in evaluation mode and have already said that at some point Shedeur Sanders is likely to get a look, but for now, Dillon Gabriel is getting his turn.
• Quinshon Judkins looks like a stud, and even though this is a tough matchup, he’s underpriced for his workload and talent.
• The Browns have two TEs who are both playing 80% or more of the snaps. 
• Does Jerry Jeudy still exist? He’s the cheapest “WR1” but he has been a ghost all season.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The 1-4 Browns enter Week 6 amid another lost season. They have already entered evaluation mode, and with that, the Gabriel era has begun. Gabriel wasn’t bad, per se, in his first start against a tough Vikings defense. He looked like what Cleveland was probably hoping to get when they drafted him, a career backup. The Browns are planning on their future franchise QB being on the roster after next year’s draft, so reasonably competent play from Gabriel must make the coaching staff happy. They also must be loving what they are seeing from Judkins, who has looked like a beast against difficult NFC North competition. Harold Fannin Jr. is also passing the eye test. The Browns look like they had a pretty good draft. Even Isaiah Bond, who went undrafted, has found a role. The Browns are wisely seeing what they have for the future. Gabriel was competent, but he was also conservative (28^th-ranked aDOT in Week 5). They also didn’t appear to fully trust him (fourth-lowest PROE of Week 5) and wanted to remove plays from the game (11^th-lowest situational-neutral pace in Week 5). Kevin Steffanski usually wants to play fast, but he seems to know that adding plays with a backup caliber rookie QB isn’t a great formula for winning games. He likely also realizes that he struck gold with Judkins, and that his defense is well above average. It makes a lot of sense to try to play slowly, run the ball, and hope to win low-scoring games. 

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PFP the OWS pennant

The Steelers have been average (15^th in DVOA) against the run, and difficult (11^th in DVOA) through the air. The Steelers’ defensive season-long numbers look mediocre, but they were dealing with a myriad of injuries to start the season. They’ve improved as they’ve gotten healthier, and even though Ramsey is likely to miss this game, everyone else looks healthy. This is a difficult matchup, and worse than the season-long numbers make it appear. The Browns O-line hasn’t done them any favors (30^th-ranked by PFF). They managed to move down a spot in the rankings after a subpar pass-blocking performance last week. The Browns’ pass-protection deficiencies further increase the chance of a run-centric gameplan. Expect the Browns to try and hide Gabriel, while hoping the Steelers accept their offer of playing a run-heavy punt-fest. 

How PITTSBURGH Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• WR CeeDee Lamb is still not practicing (as of Thursday), but early reports from this week indicate he is getting close to a return. I would expect him to miss Week 6 against the Panthers but be in line to return in Week 7 against the Commanders.
• RB Miles Sanders went from limited on Wednesday to DNP on Thursday and appears to be in line to miss a second consecutive game.
• WR KaVontae Turpin has also yet to practice this week, and Ryan Flournoy had a breakout game in Week 5 as the WR3.
• RB Chuba Hubbard went DNP-DNP through Thursday and appears to be in line to miss his second consecutive game, setting the stage for the Rico Dowdle #revengenarrative game.
• TE Ja’Tavion Sanders got in a full practice Thursday and is likely to return in Week 6.
• WR Jalen Coker got in two full practices and appears set to make his season debut for the Panthers.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How dallas Will Try To Win ::

The Cowboys rank fourth in pace of play, third in play volume (66.4 plays per game), first in total offense (406.6 yards per game), and fourth in points per game (30.2) while also allowing the most yards per game (412.0) and the fourth most points per game (30.8). They are generating explosive plays on offense while ceding explosive plays on defense. In other words, they are the top team to target for game environment bets any time they take the field. Quarterback Dak Prescott ranks second in passing yards, tied for fifth in completion rate (of quarterbacks with 100 or more dropbacks), and tied for third in touchdown passes, all while carrying a robust 13.8% deep throw rate. And they aren’t as one-dimensional as I thought they would be coming into the season, currently averaging the eighth most rushing yards per game (134.4) with a more neutral pass rate than I thought they’d have as well. But that run game has served them well and allowed the offense to be more fluid. Even more impressive is that they’ve done what they have done this season while missing one of the top wide receivers in the league for effectively three games (he was injured early in their Week 3 game). At the same time, I think they are well aware of the fact that their defense is a bottom-feeder unit, meaning they remain aggressive throughout their games.

Javonte Williams has given this team their best run game since rookie year Tony Pollard, with Williams averaging more yards per carry than anyone in the history of the team (yes, that is a real stat – unlikely to hold throughout the season, but it is a real stat). He has played 72% or more of the offensive snaps in every game but their Week 3 drubbing at the hands of the Bears and has accounted for 78% of the team’s opportunities inside the five. He also has a solid 34.2% stuff rate on the season, which comes with a modest 5.1% explosive run rate. He’s not running away from dudes, and he’s not breaking tackles at an above-average rate; he’s just getting the yards that are blocked for him and avoiding negative plays. JM’s continued comp of James Conner appears to be spot on here. Except I would argue Williams actually carries more upside than Conner ever has as a member of the Cardinals, now ranking fifth in XFP/G at 17.4 (behind only Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, and Bijan Robinson). The matchup on the ground is more middling than it has been in previous seasons against a Panthers team allowing 4.5 yards per carry (19th) behind just 1.79 yards allowed before contact per attempt.

The Panthers are playing better defensively than they have in either of the previous two seasons, but they remain one of the more straightforward units in the league. They are blitzing on only 17.2% of opposing dropbacks and are generating the lowest pressure rate in the league (8.3%), playing from Cover-3 at one of the highest rates in the league (third-ranked 42.0%). Tight end Jake Ferguson leads the team with a 0.32 TPRR against Cover-3 this season (2.62 YPRR) while George Pickens leads the team in YPRR against Cover-3 (3.68), making this a solid spot on paper for both primary options through the air. The Panthers being so straight-up defensively should allow Dak to pick them apart while attacking with his primary options, making me less interested in the quasi-breakout from Ryan Flournoy from a week ago.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The turnover battle is likely to be one of the deciding factors in this game as the Jaguars rank first in takeaways (14) and turnover differential (+8) while the Seahawks rank 28^th in giveaways (eight).
• Both defenses rank in the middle of the pack in total offense allowed per game (SEA: 322.8, 16^th; JAX: 348.2, 23^rd) while allowing 21.0 points per game or fewer (SEA: 21.0, tied for 11^th; JAX: 20.0, eighth).
• The Jaguars are going to have their hands full with this Seattle defense, a unit that clamps down on the areas of the field the Jaguars find success while struggling in coverage of the areas of the field the Jaguars have struggled to attack.
• Jaguars CB Tyson Campbell was moved to the Browns in exchange for CB Greg Newsome on Wednesday. That’s interesting to me because Campbell was one of the weak links on the back end for the Jaguars after allowing the second-most receiving yards in primary coverage through five games.
• The Jags rank seventh in pass rate over expectation (PROE) and 12^th in plays per game (62.3) while the Seahawks rank 30^th in PROE and 27^th in plays per game (57.2).

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How SEATTLE Will Try To Win ::

The Seahawks have been a methodical offense that builds their passing game behind an established run game. Their passing offense flows primarily through budding star Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who ranks behind only Puka Nacua in yards and targets per route run (TPRR) while pacing the league in team air-yards share and yards per route run (YPRR). JSN significantly lags the top-tier wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (XFP/G) due to modest team pass volume (31^st-ranked 27.4 pass attempts per game), but his underlying metrics are about as elite as they come. With that, we’ve also seen how explosive this offense can be when forced into “oh shit” mode, as they were against the Buccaneers a week ago. But that isn’t how they want to approach winning games, instead preferring to dominate the time-of-possession battle while controlling the pace and flow. The biggest thing that has derailed those plans this season, leading to a 3-2 record, has been turnovers, now ranking 28^th in giveaways with eight through five games. Ball security could become an issue against a Jacksonville defense that leads the league in both takeaways and turnover differential.

The Seattle backfield remains a near-even split in snaps between Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, when both are healthy. Walker has played 134 offensive snaps while Charbonnet has played 131 this season (while missing one game). Charbonnet continues to operate in a split role on early downs while also being the preferred back in passing situations and the preferred option in the green zone, aspects of the split that have sapped the upside from Walker this season (Charbonnet has an 83.3% opportunity share inside the five this season, when healthy). Walker has been the much more efficient back, rushing to a robust 4.85 yards per carry to the modest 2.75 mark of Charbonnet. Walker also ranks near the top of the league in missed tackles forced per carry (0.24) while Charbonnet ranks near the bottom of the league (0.08). Even so, the Seahawks seem intent on keep Charbonnet involved, and he has now out-snapped Walker in three of four healthy games. The modest red-zone role for Walker has left him with a weak 11.1 XFP/G (Charbonnet checks in right behind him at 10.0). This is another one of those backfield situations where we would be jumping out of our seats to play “Seattle backfield” if it were focused on one player, but are left largely avoiding the situation when both backs are healthy (the combined 21.1 XFP/G of the top two options would rank third in the league behind only Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor). The pure rushing matchup against the Jaguars should be viewed as a positive one considering they have allowed 4.6 yards per carry (22^nd) behind 2.18 yards allowed before contact per attempt (25^th).

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PFP the OWS pennant

JSN started the season seeing snap rates of 77%, 65%, and 49% in the team’s first three contests before understandably seeing his biggest output of the season in Week 5, when his snap rate jumped to 90% (season-high 30.2 DK points against the Buccaneers). He has seen nine or more targets in three of five games so far but also has games of six and five targets, which came in two games the Seahawks were not pushed (wins over the Cardinals and Saints). His typical target counts are likely to fall in the 7-9 range, requiring the right game environment to spike beyond that range. Tight end AJ Barner and veteran wide receiver Cooper Kupp actually lead the team in snap rate, while 12-personnel rates limit the involvement of rookie field-stretcher Tory Horton. The Seahawks have played from 12 at one of the highest rates in the league (smidge over 60%). Barner and Kupp are also the only two pass catchers other than JSN to be in a route on more than 60% of the team’s dropbacks, but are averaging 5.6 (Kupp) and 3.0 (Barner) targets per game. This is just not a heavy-volume pass offense and JSN dominates looks.

How JACKSONVILLE Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Kyren Williams is typically not a threat to pierce the 100-yard threshold considering low explosive run rates and high neutral pass rates from the Rams. That said, this is not a normal matchup.
• The Rams are averaging over 400 yards per game of total offense while the Ravens are allowing more than 400 yards per game on defense.
• Davante Adams ranks second in the league in end-zone targets with nine through five games.
• Isaiah Likely has seen snap counts of 46% and 53% in his two games this season.
• The Ravens could get back S Kyle Hamilton (full practice Thursday), CB Marlon Humphrey (limited Thursday), and T Ronnie Stanley (full Thursday) but are still reeling on the injury front.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How LOS ANGELES Will Try To Win ::

Sean McVay is having a field day with this offense this year. The Rams rank second in pace of play, 15^th in points per game (24.6), second in total offense (401.8 yards per game), and 12^th in plays per game (63.2). They also rank fifth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) with two games more than a standard deviation above neutral through five games played. They’ve done all that while also ranking in the top half of the league in points allowed per game and total offense allowed, and if not for two blocked field goals against the Eagles and an overtime loss to the 49ers, could very easily be sitting at 5-0. The offense is highly dynamic and built to get the ball to its top playmakers, operating with a seventh-ranked 61.08% pass play rate. I expect them to start in a pass-balanced stature and remain that way for as long as the game remains within reason.

Williams ranks in the top 10 in most advanced metrics and got up to a 91% snap rate in Week 5. He carries a low stuff rate (30.5%) but a comparatively low explosive run rate (2.4%), consistently churning out positive yardage while rarely breaking off long runs. He averages 16.4 carries per game and had seen between two and four targets in each of the first four games before his 10-target eruption in Week 5, painting a clear picture of his likeliest scenario in a normal game. Expect a baseline of 16-18 carries and two to four targets, which typically keeps him from threatening the 100-yard bonus on DraftKings when weighed against his advanced metrics. The man is a touchdown machine in this lineup, scoring four times in five appearances this year. This is not a normal matchup, however, against a Ravens defense allowing 408.8 yards per game, 4.7 yards per carry, and 146.4 rush yards per game, while also dealing with a litany of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. We’ll need to see practice reports on Friday, but this team is coming off playing an NFL game with only two players that began the season as a starter.

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PFP the OWS pennant

Puka Nacua leads the league in most advanced receiving metrics but likely needs to run hot in the touchdown department to threaten the triple crown. The dude is just that good and is emphasized in an offense near the top of the league in pass rate. He will remain the top play on paper at the position for as long as he remains healthy. The biggest issues are low red-zone involvement (zero end-zone targets on the season) and his ballooning salary, two things that could just not matter if he keeps averaging close to 30 DK points per game. Those red-zone and end-zone targets are almost exclusively flowing through Adams, who ranks second in the league in end-zone targets with nine (behind only George Pickens). Puka and Adams are the only near every-down pass catchers in the offense, with Jordan Whittington, Tutu Atwell, Tyler Higbee, Davis Allen, and Colby Parkinson all filling rotational roles, while Konata Mumpfield, Xavier Smith, and Terrance Ferguson contribute in specific packages at low frequency. Nothing should change within that structure for as long as the game remains within reason.

How BALTIMORE Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• WR Stefon Diggs has had a coming out the previous two weeks but is still part of a five-man rotation at wide receiver, for a team deploying 12-personnel at some of the highest rates in the league.
• The Patriots have increased their per-game scoring from 2024 to 2025 by more than all but two teams this season (Colts and Cowboys), ranking 12^th in points per game at 25.0 this year after scoring just 17.0 points per game in 2024.
• This game environment is set up far differently than the one the Saints found themselves in last week. Remember, we (or, at least, I) were targeting this offense last week, with very few paths to the game environment getting out of hand.
• I don’t think we’re anywhere close to the TreVeyon Henderson takeover that many fantasy analysts have been clamoring for in recent weeks (more below).

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How new england Will Try To Win ::

The Patriots currently rank sixth in PROE with two games more than one standard deviation over neutral already this season. The biggest contributing factor to that stance is likely a run game averaging only 3.7 yards per carry (28^th) due to a bottom-five offensive line (sixth fewest yards before contact per attempt and eighth highest pressure rate allowed). That sets up an interesting spot against a Saints defense facing bottom 10 PROE values this season. I expect we see a more neutral game called from Josh McDaniels, considering the opponent, and we’ve already seen quarterback Drake Maye attempt 30 or fewer passes in three of five games this season (all three New England wins). In other words, if the Patriots are controlling this game environment, it is highly unlikely we see massive volume from Maye in this spot.

The ground game devolved into a two-headed, strict timeshare in Week 5 in the absence of Antonio Gibson, who will miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Beyond that, we already have reports out of New England that the team is deploying their patented “next man up” mentality with the situation, specifically speaking to practice squad running back Terrell Jennings. Jennings is likely to find himself on the active roster come Sunday to serve as a kickoff specialist alongside rookie TreVeyon Henderson (the team stuck Rhamondre Stevenson back there following the injury to Gibson, but he does not bring similar upside in that phase of the game), meaning we could also see him grab offensive snaps behind the top two. We’ve been waiting for the Henderson breakout for multiple weeks now, but he still appears not to be trusted in pass protection. That’s important due to the shortcomings of the offensive line, a unit giving up pressure at the eighth highest rate this season. That idea gains increased traction when you consider Stevenson’s fumbling issues. As in, wouldn’t this team work someone else in at a higher rate, if they had someone they trusted? Which is to say, I don’t think we’re close to Henderson taking over the lion’s share of backfield opportunities for the Patriots. What we’re left with is a timeshare backfield against a Saints defense near the middle of the pack in most rushing metrics. Not much to love with that setup.

Stefon Diggs has become a true alpha in this New England offense, at least as underlying metrics are concerned. He has a 39.6% target rate, 0.49 TPRR, 54.5% air yards share, and a ridiculous 6.33 YPRR in the previous two games. But he still hasn’t exceeded a 63% snap rate this season (63% and 50% the past two games) in an offense that utilizes 12-personnel at some of the heaviest rates in the league, while also deploying a five-man rotation at wide receiver. That said, there is further upside to Diggs should he start to see heavier snap rates and route participation rates (67.2% the previous two games), the further he gets from his ACL injury. Tight end Hunter Henry’s 10.2 aDOT this season paces the league at the position, of tight ends to see more than 15 targets (Darren Waller holds an 11.6 aDOT on nine targets, and Cole Kmet holds an 11.3 aDOT on 15 targets). That highlights how he is being utilized in this offense, far from a short-area magnet. Kayshon Boutte is the only other pass-catcher in a route on greater than 50% of the team’s dropbacks (68.1%), while all of Mack Hollins, DeMario Douglas, Kyle Williams, and Austin Hooper have seen meaningful snaps. The Saints have faced a middling 7.6 defensive aDOT while playing heavy rates of zone (74.9%) and heavy rates of single-high (58.3%), mostly via a Cover-3 rate that ranks fifth in the league (39.4%). Diggs handily leads the team in production against Cover-3 this season, setting him up for another solid showing on his modest $5,800 DK salary.

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Tennessee enters this game fresh off a huge comeback in Arizona for their first victory of the Cam Ward era.
• The Titans schedule to start the season has been brutal and this week presents by far their easiest matchup of the season to date.
• Tennessee’s top wide receiver, Calvin Ridley, appears to finally be healthy and is coming off his best game of the season.
• The status of star Raiders tight end Brock Bowers is once again in question due to a knee injury, although the team expects Michael Mayer back for this game.
• Las Vegas has shown some glimpses of functionality on offense this season when they are able to keep the game script from getting away from them.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How TENNESSEE Will Try To Win ::

The Titans were the beneficiaries of a litany of self-inflicted errors by the Cardinals in Week 5, which led to their first victory of the season and removed the metaphorical monkey of a winless season from their back as things had previously looked extremely hopeless. The Cardinals literally dropped the ball at the one-yard line just prior to a touchdown that would have put them ahead 28-3, and later intercepted Cam Ward near their own goal line before dropping the ball and allowing the Titans to simply fall on it for a touchdown that sparked their comeback in a 22-21 victory. Tennessee can’t rely on those types of breaks being handed to them on a silver platter weekly, although if there was an opponent that would be most likely to duplicate silly mistakes like that, the Raiders would be near the top of that list.

Tennessee has continued to coddle rookie quarterback Cam Ward throughout his rookie season, until and unless they are absolutely forced to turn things up. The positive things for their outlook are that they have now seen Ward get it done in crunch time and make some big time throws, their top wide receiver, Calvin Ridley, appears to be healthy now, and the Raiders are by far the softest opponent they have faced to date. The reality is that Tennessee started the season against a very tough schedule of defenses in the Broncos, Rams, Colts, and Texans. Even last week’s matchup against Arizona was a somewhat tough one schematically, and particularly for a talent-deficient offense with a young quarterback still looking to gain his confidence. This week the Titans face a Raiders defense that ranks bottom-12 in the NFL in both pass defense and run defense DVOA and 19th in the league in yards per play allowed. 

Tennessee has tried to protect Ward to date during their difficult schedule, ranking 25th in neutral situation pass rate despite their running game’s struggles. When they do let Ward throw the ball, he has actually been fairly aggressive and ranks 10th in the NFL in average intended air yards per pass attempt. Las Vegas plays the third highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL and Calvin Ridley has historically been very matchup sensitive and much stronger against zone coverage, while struggling against man coverage – particularly when the opposing cornerbacks are high quality. Rookie wide receiver Elic Ayomanor seems to be the clear second option in the passing game and has also performed better against zone coverage so far this season. The Raiders have a middling blitz rate and a bottom-10 QB pressure rate this season, while the Titans may also be getting tackle J.C. Latham back from injury, so Ward should have time to make his reads and find the openings in the Raiders leaky zone coverage. The Titans welcomed the return of running back Tyjae Spears in Week 5 and his role should continue to grow. His presence should improve the efficiency of their running game as Spears and Pollard can complement each other and keep each other fresh. Expect Tennessee to open things up a bit this week as they look to build on last week’s strong fourth quarter momentum and take advantage of a strong matchup through the air, while likely having the most offensive success they have had yet this season.

How LAS VEGAS Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• San Francisco’s offense will once again be led by quarterback Mac Jones, who has played very well in his three starts this season.
• The 49ers look like they will get wide receiver Jauan Jennings back in the lineup this week, but Ricky Pearsall’s status appears to be in jeopardy.
• Tampa Bay will once again be without RB Bucky Irving, leaving Rachaad White to handle lead back duties. 
• Mike Evans will miss his third consecutive game and Chris Godwin missed the first two practices of the week, putting his status in doubt. 
• The performance of both defenses in this game has been on a downward trajectory over recent weeks.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How SAN FRANCISCO Will Try To Win ::

The 49ers have been one of the more impressive teams in the NFL so far this season with their ability to overcome a seemingly never ending stream of injuries en route to a 4-1 record. Their most recent victory was an impressive Thursday night road win over the Rams in which they were large underdogs, but controlled the game throughout. San Francisco lost all pro edge rusher Nick Bosa for the season in Week 3, and has dealt with injuries to all pro tight end George Kittle, quarterback Brock Purdy, and their top three wide receivers. They are likely to be without all of the aforementioned players again this week for a road game in Tampa Bay, with the lone exception possibly being veteran wide receiver Jauan Jennings, who has practiced in a limited capacity this week after sitting out all practices prior to Week 5.

The reality at this point is that San Francisco will be starting Mac Jones for the fourth time in six games this week, as Brock Purdy has not practiced yet this week due to his toe injury. Jones has played admirably this season and has looked quite comfortable in head coach Kyle Shanahan’s system. The 49ers are leaning heavily on a short and quick passing game with running back Christian McCaffrey seeing an incredible number of targets as their offensive focal point. The 49ers running game has struggled to be efficient and move the ball on the ground thus far this season, as their offensive line play has taken a step back from past seasons and the absence of George Kittle has been felt in their run blocking. This week they face a Bucs defense that has been elite against the run, ranking 4th in run defense DVOA, which makes it highly unlikely that San Francisco’s sputtering running game suddenly finds its footing in Week 6.

This leads to a situation where the 49ers will once again lean heavily on the short and intermediate passing game as they try to pull off another road upset. Tampa Bay runs one of the more aggressive and creative blitzing defenses in the league. The 49ers will undoubtedly look to use that aggression against them by baiting them and hitting on quick screens and using creative formations to help diagnose these looks before the snap. The 49ers will never fully abandon a running game, as their schemes are layered and built with that as the foundation. However, the 49ers pass rate is up significantly from past seasons and we should expect much of the same in Tampa. The main concern for them will be protecting Mac Jones and getting the ball out quickly, as he is dealing with a PCL injury of his own and appeared hobbled in last week’s win over the Rams.

How TAMPA bay Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Cincinnati’s new quarterback Joe Flacco will make his first start against a team he has already beaten once this season.
• Green Bay had a rough stretch heading into their Week 5 bye week with a loss to the Browns and tie against the Cowboys.
• This matchup sets up for the Packers offense to operate in the exact manner which they prefer, methodically and with a heavy focus on the run.
• Cincinnati’s wide receivers will have more opportunities to make plays downfield this week than they have since losing Joe Burrow.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

This is a strange situation as we are relatively deep into the season to be seeing a quarterback thrown in the fire as a starter on a new team with less than a week of preparation. Joe Flacco is on the wrong side of 40 and lacks mobility, which may be a problem behind this porous Bengals offensive line. However, his command of the line of scrimmage and willingness to take shots to the Bengals elite wide receivers offer a glimmer of hope after three weeks of watching Jake Browning flounder through the first half of games, basically unable to move the ball. His only real success came at the end of games that were already decided. Flacco is a veteran with a ton of experience and is very cerebral, while the Bengals offense is one of the more straightforward schemes in the league. This makes it so his acclimation period should be quick and we can expect a reasonable level of success given his weapons. Given the circumstances, things could be worse.

The irony here is that the Bengals as a 14-point road underdog, but their best method of trying to win this game may actually be from taking some aggressive shots early in the game. The approach for most big underdogs is to shorten the game and limit possessions, hoping turnovers and variance work in their favor to give them a chance late. However, slow and methodical plays right into Green Bay’s hands and the Bengals lack of a running game (31st in rushing offense DVOA and 32nd in adjusted line yards per carry) and lack of reps in short area passing make it difficult to envision them putting together a bunch of sustained drives and marching down the field systematically. Given Flacco’s strengths at throwing the ball down the field and the elite playmakers at his disposal, the Bengals best chance in this game is letting him air it out early and hoping to get out ahead and play from a position of strength. The last time we saw this Packers defense they were being torched by George Pickens down the field and Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are certainly capable of winning those situations as well. The Packers pass rush, led by Micah Parsons, is a concern here. However, one of the biggest issues since losing Joe Burrow has been losing his command at the line of scrimmage to alter protections and recognize defenses. Burrow’s ability in these areas masked a lot of issues for Cincinnati’s offensive line. Flacco is not Burrow, but he should be much better at this than Browning was. Green Bay does not blitz at a high rate and when they do Flacco should recognize it well. Expect this passing game to at least have a chance to develop a rhythm after the aggressive Vikings, Broncos, and Lions defenses put them on their heels with Browning under center.

The assignment here is clear for Flacco. Get the ball to your best players while avoiding sacks and turnovers. For as poor as the Bengals defense has been, they have shown the ability to force opponents to march the field and limited explosive plays when the offense doesn’t put them in difficult situations. The running game isn’t going to fix itself against Green Bay’s defense which is giving up only 3.6 yards per carry, so this one is going to depend on Higgins and Chase. Flacco faced this Packers defense once this year, but he didn’t have two weapons like that, and he has a much different defense supporting him this time. Shots will be taken early and the Bengals will adjust to the game script from there.

How Green bay Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday night should be a fun one, as the Lions visit the Chiefs for a massive 52.5-point total game with Kansas City favored by 2.5. Patrick Mahomes apparently was frustrated with me doubting the Chiefs’ offense, as they went out and scored 37 and 28 points in consecutive games (one against the Ravens, admittedly, but even still that’s impressive). The Lions are off to a roaring start offensively (see what I did there?) with just shy of 35 points per game, while both defenses have been middling so far. We’re likely to see some fireworks in this one, but I’d say it isn’t guaranteed – both defenses have plenty of talent and were very solid last year, while the Chiefs’ offense has largely been below average to average at best for the last couple of seasons now. Lots of ways this game can go.

kansas city

On the Chiefs’ side, the backfield is heartily mediocre overall (and they’re the highest pass rate over expectation offense in the league so far). Isiah Pacheco led the team with 63% of the snaps last week but it only resulted in 10 opportunities, while Kareem Hunt played 33% of the snaps with eight opportunities but managed to score two touchdowns. They’re super cheap – just $4k for Pacheco and $4.6k for Hunt, which keeps them in play as value options – but the ceilings are pretty low here. I prefer Pacheco personally as he’s on the field a lot more and has 12 targets on the season to Hunt’s seven.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Xavier Worthy is the alpha, with JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquise Brown, and Tyquan Thornton playing meaningful WR snaps. Worthy has seen eight and nine targets since returning from injury, with three carries as well – he’s a guy they want to get the ball to. In the highest-total game the Chiefs have played yet, Worthy looks underpriced at $9k – he’s a WR1 but not quite priced like it. He’s a solid play with the speed to score from anywhere. Everyone else is a value option. JuJu is no longer an explosive player, but he’s playing the second-most snaps of the Chiefs wideouts and he’s $2.8k, which is just too cheap for how much he’s on the field. He’s a very solid value option who should project right around the kickers but is materially cheaper than them. Brown is $5.4k and in a pretty high-volume role, albeit with little per-target upside with an ADOT of 9.2 yards. I hate to say it, but I actually prefer JuJu to Brown, as their roles are fairly similar but JuJu is half the price. Thornton, on the other hand, is playing modest snaps but leads the NFL with a massive 23.9-yard aDOT – we were on him in the last Chiefs Showdown and he racked up 90 yards on just three catches, but only saw five targets. That’s the kind of performance we can expect to see from Thornton. The way I see Thornton is if you’re building for a high-scoring shootout, he’s a stronger play, because if this game gets to 60+ points there’s a good chance the Chiefs score at least one long touchdown with a quick drive and good odds Thornton is involved in that.

 At tight end, Travis Kelce is the very definition of a solid-floor, low-ceiling pass catcher with 9.8 or more DK points in four of five games, but he hasn’t yet cracked 20. He doesn’t have the same kind of yardage upside as he used to and will probably need two touchdowns to really find a ceiling. He can do that in a high-scoring game, but I generally shy away from guys who probably need two scores to find ceiling outcomes at their prices. Noah Gray’s a viable punt option, but with JuJu at $2,800 he somewhat sucks the life out of most of the other punt plays down in that price range.

detroit

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Once again, we got two Monday night games (I’m writing up a LOT of Showdowns this year!), and the first one has the Bills traveling to Atlanta for a 49.5 total game with the visitors favored by 4.5. Buffalo has been a bit of an odd team to start – they’re 4-1, but they beat the Ravens by a single point, smashed three teams much weaker than they are, and then somehow lost at home to the Patriots. They’ve still scored 30+ points in four of their five games, while ranking third in points scored, while the Falcons rank near the bottom in scoring. Both teams have been middling on defense, which is somewhat damning for Buffalo, given how good the defense looked on paper coming into the season and the quality of their opponents, but all that said, I agree that Buffalo is the overall better team and should be favored. 

BUFFALO

In the run game, the Bills are finally giving James Cook material workloads with at least 16 opportunities in every game, and 22+ in three of five games. He’s finally being used like…well, not quite a full-on bell cow, but a real lead back instead of the consistent mid-teens touches we saw him get last season. Atlanta has been middling against the run so far (don’t pay attention to that “1st” on Draftkings, it’s silly). They’re allowing 4.6 yards per carry, but they’re also facing just 23.5 total rush attempts per game, one of the lowest in the league. Teams should be able to run against the Falcons, and I expect that the Bills will be able to find success here. Cook looks a bit more volatile than Bijan Robinson up near the high end of the price range, but I like him almost as much, especially with the $1k price discount. He’s one of my favorite options. Ty Johnson and Ray Davis aren’t seeing enough work to be anything more than tourney darts, but I expect Johnson will, at some point, have some relevant games this season – it’s unlikely to be this one. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, I hate writing up the Bills because it’s the same thing every damn week, and they show up on Showdowns a lot. This is an incredibly spread-out passing offense. Eight different pass catchers played material snaps last week (it was nine the week before, but they made Elijah Moore inactive last week). The primary wide receivers who are playing the most snaps are Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir, and their route participation is decent at 82.7% and 82.1%, respectively, but that’s still only ranked in the mid-40s in the league. Coleman is my favorite option – he has a healthy 11.3 yard ADOT, giving him ceiling, and he’s leading the Bills pass catchers in snap share and route participation. Shakir is only $200 less, and while he’s almost identical to Coleman in DK points per game, his 4.2 yard aDOT makes finding ceiling a tougher path, and it’s not as if he’s cheap. I’ll likely aim to be overweight on Coleman and under on Shakir.

Palmer had 9 targets in Week 1, which looked promising, but then he’s only had 9 more in the rest of the season combined. Tyrell Shavers has 5 targets on the season for a grand total of 24 receiving yards. Samuel only has 4 targets in his four games and is nursing both neck and rib injuries (he did get in two limited practices this week, so I think it’s more likely than not that he plays). Fun times in this receiving corps. If Samuel misses, Elijah Moore comes back into the fold. Coleman and Shakir are the only two wide receivers with any real semblance of floor, but the rest are all cheap enough that 1-2 catches with a touchdown could easily put them in the optimal lineup.

By The Numbers

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At tight end, Dalton Kincaid is the leading Buffalo pass catcher this season and is fresh off a 108 yard performance last week. He leads the pass catchers in yardage and touchdowns (though both Shakir and Coleman have more targets), but he’s also only running routes on 63.6% of Allen dropbacks, which is rough. I like him for ceiling, but think I probably lean a little more towards Shakir and Coleman for more field time and target volume. Kincaid, like Samuel, is also questionable but got in limited practices, so with an extra day before his game, I think it’s pretty likely he plays. If he misses, more volume for the wideouts and more snaps for the other tight ends. Speaking of, the others are Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes. Knox has fairly quickly gone from a viable fantasy play to an afterthought with 10 targets and 54 total receiving yards on the year. Yikes. He’s still on the Bills, and he’s only $1,600, and he’s playing a decent chunk of snaps, so he fits into the same bucket as the non-primary wide receivers. Hawes has 4 targets and needs a touchdown.

Buffalo passing summary

All of these guys are fairly risky – Coleman, Shakir, and Kincaid have floors, at least, but they’re also fairly expensive for those floors – everyone else is a risky tourney-only option. The way I’d play them is simply the opposite of ownership, because I think they’re all pretty similar. I’d go a bit overweight on the guys who are projecting for less ownership, and I’d stay away if any of them look like they’re going to be chalky. It’s a volatile situation, and we always want to play into volatility at low ownership and away from it at high ownership. 

ATLANTA

The Deuce

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider for Monday’s 2-game Slate:

Overview::

It is important to understand the big picture of these teams both in terms of their inner workings and their perceptions entering this week::

• Bills – After a primetime let down in Week 5 where the Bills lost to the Patriots, they travel to Atlanta trying to get back on track. The Bills play the Panthers next week prior to facing off with the Chiefs in Week 8. Buffalo is still in control of their division and is fully healthy on the offensive side of the ball, while they will once again be without a couple of key defenders in LB Matt Milano and S Damar Hamlin. Buffalo continues to have a balanced to run-heavy approach when they can, as Josh Allen’s only two games this season with more than 28 pass attempts were their Week 1 comeback against the Ravens and last week’s loss to the Patriots. Atlanta’s defense is the #1 ranked DVOA defense in the NFL through five weeks and is coming off their bye week, while allowing the 5th lowest yards per play in the league. Atlanta is healthy and gets their top cornerback, AJ Terrell, back from injury this week.
• Falcons – The Falcons offense runs primarily through RB Bijan Robinson and WR Drake London on a weekly basis and that will be the case to an even greater extent this week as WR Darnell Mooney will miss this game. The Falcons power running game has been their trademark this season and when they have that aspect of their offense rolling they usually have great success. The Bills are the 32nd ranked run defense in the league by multiple metrics, but have only faced one strong running game this season which was the Ravens when Derrick Henry had by far his best game of the season. In the absence of Mooney, we should expect Kyle Pitts, who is coming off his best game of the season, to be the next most targeted player after Robinson and London. This also profiles as a game where RB Tyler Allgeier is likely to have double digit carries given the strength of the rushing matchup and Atlanta’s desire to give Bijan a large workload but keep it manageable.
• Bears – Washington blitzes at a top-5 rate and is far more susceptible to the pass than the run this season, while the Bears have arguably the worst running game in the league through five weeks. They are coming off their bye week, but there does not seem to be anything they can do from a personnel standpoint to greatly improve their rushing offense in the short-term and this week’s matchup certainly doesn’t look like a spot where it will magically show up. Bears QB Caleb Williams ranks 39th in PFF passing grade when under pressure, but 6th when he is kept clean. On paper, this looks like a spot where Washington could create some havoc as Dan Quinn’s aggressive blitzing could force Williams into mistakes. Rome Odunze remains the clear top receiving option for the Bears with DJ Moore still ranking second but failing to produce much to date. Moore could be due for a breakout coming out of the team’s bye, while rookie wide receiver Luther Burden III could also see an increased role if he is able to claim some time from veteran Olamide Zaccheaus. Those two, along with tight ends Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland, are the biggest question marks around this Bears team and the usage the team deploys here among those players has a wide range of outcomes that no one outside their organization will be able to definitively say until after the games.
• Commanders – Washington held strong without Jayden Daniels for a couple of weeks and can take a share of the NFC East lead with a win here. Daniels is back at full strength, but didn’t have to do much in his return last week against the Chargers. The backfield seems to be in the hands of Jacory Croskey-Merritt after his breakout Week 5 game and Chris Rodriguez Jr. is likely to miss this one, leaving Jeremy McNichols as the other running back likely to see meaningful touches. Chicago has the 28th ranked run defense DVOA and is the only team to allow Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty to go off so far this season, while also allowing 7.6 yards per carry to Javonte Williams in Week 3. Washington has the league’s #3 ranked rushing offense and should move the ball easily on the ground. They will be without WR Terry McLaurin and the status of WR Deebo Samuel Sr. will not be determined until gametime. Zach Ertz should be a primary target for Daniels this week after his dud in Week 5, while Chris Moore will operate in the primary perimeter role in place of McLaurin although he has been running a lot of routes and not seeing many targets. Youngsters Luke McCaffrey and Jaylin Lane are interesting options this week with talent and a good matchup, while they will either rotate snaps if Deebo plays or both be on the field a lot if Deebo misses this game. 

QB Thoughts::

• It is hard to predict exactly where things will land on a short slate like this, but pricing is relatively soft while Daniels and Allen are both among the top-5 QBs in the league, so it is safe to say that they will both be heavily owned and for good reason. The interesting thing here is that usually the problem with playing the top QB option on a slate is that who to stack them with is so obvious that a large portion of your lineup looks the same as so many other people. There is an interesting dynamic on this slate as the Commanders and Bills offenses have unpredictable passing game usage, so you can play either QB and stack them in ways that won’t necessarily be super common. Another interesting way to approach it is build a lineup around either QB, then swap to the other elite QB without changing the players around them. The idea here is that either Allen or Daniels could be the top scoring QB by a decent margin from rushing production, while the other has a solid game through the air and carries multiple pass catchers to optimal games.
• Caleb Williams is in an interesting spot as the Bears are so unlikely to be able to run the ball, yet the pressure he is likely to see makes efficiency a big question mark. Does high passing volume result in a big stat line or a bunch of mistakes or both? Similar to the other situations, 
• Michael Penix Jr. is the cheapest QB option on the slate and likely to be the lowest owned. Salary is relatively loose, but if Penix is able to post a 20-point game while no one else goes over 30 then he’s probably going to be the optimal option. We also know where/how to stack (roughly) him, which makes things easier, and he can benefit from Bijan Robinson adding so much as a receiver.

My guess on final ownership::

• Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels – 30%+
• Caleb Williams – 15% to 30%
• Michael Penix Jr. – 8% to 15%

RB Thoughts::

• Bijan Robinson is probably going to be on 70 to 80% of rosters, and with good reason. His role is so huge and salary is relatively loose, while the matchup is about as good as it gets on paper. Really the paths to him not being someone you have to have in your lineup are an injury, the Falcons offense completely implodes (possible), or Tyler Allgeier steals enough of the production/points that Bijan’s score is low enough to where you can get away with not having it. It is also relevant that one of the teams on the short slate (CHI) is so highly unlikely to have a strong RB score, which makes it really tough for Bijan to not be needed. He has scored 14+ DraftKings points in 15 of his last 16 games going back to last season, so even a “down” game by his standards is probably around 20 points, which would be hard to win without on a two game slate.
• James Cook III is coming off his worst game of the season against the Patriots, but had scored 20+ DraftKings points in the four games prior to that. In my opinion he is the easiest expensive player to fade as he will surely be over 50% owned and this is probably his toughest matchup to date.
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt should be the primary running back and looks the part coming off a breakout performance. It is hard not to include him in your lineup in this spot in one of the best possible matchups.
• D’Andre Swift’s usage has kept him viable this season as he has between 9.5 and 16 fantasy points in every game so far. Coming out of the bye I have some concern that he will share more of the backfield work due to his inefficiency so far, while I also think he may be asked to block more against Washington’s constant blitzing. 
• If you read the above bullets, you’ll understand my approach for this one will be Bijan and JCM in almost every lineup. I can see cases to include Cook or Swift if it is a three running back build, but it is hard to justify a roster spot for either over the two primary guys. However, Tyler Allgeier and Jeremy McNichols are interesting options on this short slate as both are capable runners in great matchups who could see a healthy amount of touches (both probably around 8 to 12). Also, on the short slate if either of Bijan or JCM were to suffer an injury then Allgeier or McNichols would become a near must-have. I do think both of these guys are also viable Flex options to be played with their backfield teammates (JCM with McNichols, or Bijan with Allgeier). 

WR Thoughts::

• Drake London is likely to be the most popular receiver on the slate, which is interesting from a couple of different angles. First, his team’s matchup is much better on the ground than through the air. Second, the other teams have spread out passing games which makes it so that all of those WRs are harder to expect good games from, but a lot of receivers have paths to scoring 12 to 20 points at a much lower salary than London.
• Rome Odunze is very likely to have a strong game, regardless of how the Bears do as a team. The volume should be there and he is very talented. Hard to leave him off a roster unless you are betting on multiple other Bears pass catchers outperforming expectations.
• DJ Moore would be the most obvious “other guy” from the Bears to supplant Odunze. I doubt I will make any rosters without at least one of them on it. Luther Burden III is also intriguing although my guess is if I use Burden it would be WITH one of Moore or Odunze, not as the only Bears pass catcher.
• The Bills receivers are always hard to predict and this week will be no different. Khalil Shakir is the only one I truly trust as far as what his role/usage will be. Keon Coleman seems like a good candidate for shadow coverage from AJ Terrell. This leaves Joshua Palmer or Curtis Samuel as intriguing options as “guys on the field a lot with Josh Allen”. 
• Washington’s situation all depends on the status of Deebo. If he plays, he is the guy. If he doesn’t, things get interesting. I probably won’t play Chris Moore either way, but Luke McCaffrey and Jaylin Lane are super interesting guys who I think could post big games if given a full-time role rather than splitting with each other.

TE Thoughts::

• If Deebo Samuel Sr. misses this game, then Zach Ertz is my favorite tight end on the slate. If not, I probably only play Ertz on Daniels rosters.
• Dalton Kincaid has had a nice season despite playing limited snaps. He does run a route on most passing plays, however, and has three touchdowns already this season. He is questionable for this game, but expected to play.
• Kyle Pitts Sr. is in line for a big role here and has at least 7.7 fantasy points on at least 5 targets in every game this season. No Mooney should mean even more usage, so it is really a game script thing. If Atlanta can play from ahead, Pitts probably only sees 4 to 6 targets. If they fall behind, he probably gets up in the 7 to 9 range. I will be building accordingly.
• The Bears tight ends are mostly a crapshoot in this one. They will likely split time and neither has been impressive to date. They could also have to block more against Washington. It is a leap of faith to play them, but the short slate is the one place it could pay off if one of them can get in the end zone.

Strategy and Game Theory::

• We touched on a lot of this already, but salary is pretty loose once again which means we have to be somewhat creative without being stupid. This slate does have a lot more dynamics and question marks around usage than we saw on the last two game slate, which makes it a little more fun as there are a lot more paths we can try to take that are not just off the wall for the sake of it. 
• If you take the highest salary player at every position, you are $5,200 over the cap (assuming Deebo plays). If you swap Allen to Penix (which makes sense with Bijan and London on the roster) and swap Cook to Burden or McNichols, you are under the cap. I’m not saying to play that roster, but just outlining how easy it is to get under the cap while using all of the expensive guys. Only two QBs, two RBs, and three WRs have salaries over $5,600 for this slate, which means the salaries mostly don’t even matter and we should just focus on the story our roster tells and finding a path to first. If Deebo is ruled out, all bets are off really as there would just be so much value and salary to go around and it will almost be like a preseason slate.

Positional Rankings::

(My favorite plays on the slate at each position when considering all elements, including salary/ownership)

RB::

1. Bijan Robinson
2. Jacory Croskey-Merritt
3. James Cook
4. D’Andre Swift

WR::

1. Rome Odunze
2. Drake London
3. DJ Moore
4. Khalil Shakir
5. Deebo Samuel Sr.
6. Keon Coleman
7. Luke McCaffrey

TE::

1. Dalton Kincaid 
2. Kyle Pitts Sr.
3. Zach Ertz (move to #1 if Deebo is inactive)
4. Cole Kmet

SHORT SLATE-ONLY OPTIONS::

• Here are a few cheaper options that I’ll be considering on this slate that can help you make a unique lineup, but you wouldn’t be playing on the Main Slate::
  • Tyler Allgeier
  • Colston Loveland
  • Luther Burden III
  • Jeremy McNichols
  • Josh Palmer // Curtis Samuel
  • Casey Washington
  • Jaylin Lane
  • Chris Moore

Good luck and see you in the lobby at 7:15 pm ET Monday!!

-Mike (MJohnson86)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 6 closes out with the Bears heading to Washington to take on the Commanders in a nice 49.5 total game. Washington is favored by 5.5 in this one with Jayden Daniels back, and there are injury situations on both teams that we’ll need to pay attention to. 

WASHINGTON

On the Washington side, “Bill” Croskey-Merritt is fresh off a huge 150 scrimmage yards, 2 touchdown game last week. I’ll pump the brakes just a smidge, though, as he only saw 16 touches while playing 47% of the snaps, and while he’s been the “lead back” since Austin Ekeler got hurt, he has yet to reach even a 50% snap share. Could the Commanders bump him up there this week? They absolutely could – he’s the best back on the roster, and I expect he’ll take over the backfield at some point this season. But it’s worth noting that was true last week, and the week before, and they keep limiting his snaps. Playing Bill is a bit of an act of faith – the matchup is good, but he’s also likely to draw a lot of ownership. You can either believe the role will grow, you can believe the role won’t grow but he’ll smash again on a sub-50% snap count, or you can believe the breakout is more of a fakeout and avoid him. He’s priced like a good 2-down back, which he is, but he’s not exactly a bargain, and so avoiding him is a stomach-churning play, but it’s also one bold way to differentiate yourself on this slate. Bill’s status is somewhat tied to that of Chris Rodriguez, who didn’t practice this week but is still listed as questionable. If Rodriguez plays, it makes Bill a lot riskier. If Rodriguez sits, it seems more likely that Bill sees his role expand. Jeremy McNichols and Rodriguez are splitting the rest of the running back workload – both are tough to play if all three backs are active, as McNichols has 13 opportunities on the season while Rodriguez has 23, but if Rodriguez sits, McNichols becomes very viable at just $2k. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Commanders are missing at least two of their three primary wide receivers, and Deebo Samuel is questionable. Deebo did get in a limited practice, so with the extra day between games, I bet he plays. He would be in an awesome alpha role, which has resulted in three 20+ DK point performances this season, coming in the games that McLaurin either missed or was mostly running empty routes (Week 1 after missing most of training camp). If Deebo plays, he’s a premium option in a fantastic matchup. Without Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown, we’ve seen the Commanders run out Chris Moore, Jaylin Lane, Luke McCaffrey, and Tay Martin as their other wide receivers, in roughly that order by snap share. These are all pretty thin plays. Moore leads in snaps but has just 7 targets on the season, though he’s also min-priced at $200. McCaffrey is $4,800, which sure feels like a lot for a guy with 9 targets this year, but he’s scored 2 touchdowns. Lane is actually leading this group in targets with 13, but he hasn’t connected on much yet. Martin has just 2 targets this year. They’re all highly risky, but my favorite for a combination of price, projection, and 1-day-early-guess-at-ownership is Lane, then Moore, then McCaffrey, then Martin.

By The Numbers

Now availble in the Scroll!

At tight end, Zach Ertz is still playing football and is 2nd on the team in targets, receptions, and yardage. This team just doesn’t have a lot of trusted weapons with McLaurin and Brown hurt, and that leaves Ertz looking quite underpriced at $5,600. Ben Sinnott and John Bates are backup tight ends who each have seen just 1 target this year. Bates is actually a reasonably capable pass catcher and can be included in player pools as a low-owned punt, and personally, I would just avoid Sinnott. 

CHICAGO

In the Bears backfield, D’Andre Swift is rolling along in a clear lead back role with opportunity counts of 22, 15 (in a blowout), 17, and 20. He’s also averaging a healthy 4.5 targets per game. He’s always an uncomfortable play, and as a road underdog, he does have game script risk, but at $9k, he isn’t priced for his role and volume. He’s a great option in builds predicated on the Bears keeping the game competitive throughout, but he doesn’t really belong on rosters built around the Commanders dominating the game. RB2 Kyle Monangai is cheap enough to be playable (RB2s in Showdown are almost always underowned), but I’d prefer McNichols on the other side if Rodriguez ends up being out. 

Four games in, let’s take a look at Caleb Williams’ target distribution. Rome Odunze has 35 targets for a 26.7% target share – that’s not elite, but it’s a solid WR1 level. Let’s go look up their other elite wide receiver, DJ Moore….oh no. Moore has just a 16% target share. He’s also all the way down to a rather pitiful 8.3 yard aDOT. Yikes. Moore is actually third on the team in targets with 21, behind…wait for it…Olamide Zaccheaus with 22. Swift has 18, then tight end Cole Kmet has 16, WR4 Luther Burden has 8, rookie TE Colston Loveland has 6, and Monangai has 5. This offense runs on Odunze and Swift. Moore still has upside with the ball in his hands, I suppose, but 5 targets per game with an 8.3 yard ADOT just doesn’t really cut it for me at $7,600. His price is dropping, but it’s not dropping as fast as his role has shrunk this season. Will he snap out of it? I kind of think he will – I believe in him as a player – but unless he starts projecting for very low ownership (say, 20% or under), I’m just going to keep being underweight. I’d actually rather just play Zaccheaus at $3,400 since they’ve been very similar players this year – and I think Zaccheaus is a solid value option.

At tight end, Cole Kmet has somewhat quietly held a 90%+ snap rate in every game this season, even when Loveland was playing. He hasn’t really hit yet for fantasy purposes, but he did see a whopping 9 targets last week (when Hilow and I both played a ton of him…sigh…). I think the boom is coming here. He’s my favorite sub-kicker value option – $3,200 is just too cheap for a guy as talented as he is and who’s on the field so much. Loveland is probably coming back this week as he practiced in full on Saturday, but I don’t think he’s really going to have a big impact on Kmet, at least not yet – he’s only seen 6 targets so far, so the Bears are clearly easing him in slowly. Luther Burden is a viable punt option – he won’t play a ton and won’t get a lot of targets, but he’s a good player who can get behind a defense, and we know the Commanders are vulnerable to deep passing (remember what Tre Tucker did to them?). 

STRATEGY OUTLOOK

I’m really excited for this game, but I will also admit to being biased in favor of the Bears (for fantasy purposes, I am not, fortunately, an actual Bears fan). I think we’re likely to see some fireworks, and I mostly want to build shootout scenarios for this one. But we’ve also seen Caleb Williams fall on his face a time or two, and it wouldn’t surprise me. I’ll go with Washington onslaughts as well, and the Commanders D is a solid option in a vacuum.

CASH GAMES

In cash games, I want the quarterbacks and Swift. Bill becomes a priority if Rodriguez sits; otherwise, you could play Odunze if you have room for a 4th stud. The kickers, Ertz, and Kmet are my favorite cash value options.

TOURNAMENTS

In tournaments, my favorite captains are Deebo, Odunze, and Kmet (Bill and Swift are solid as well). 

Some groups to consider

• At most 2 kickers + DSTs
• Pair captain pass catchers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing – discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)
• If captaining a pass catcher, at most 1 other pass catcher on the same team
• At most 1 of Zaccheaus and Burden
• At most 1 of Kmet, Loveland (and Smythe if you play him)
• At most 2 of Moore, Lane, McCaffrey, Martin, and Bates
• At most 1 Commanders RB

The Deuce

Strategy Ideas and Things To Consider for Monday’s 2-game Slate:

Overview::

It is important to understand the big picture of these teams both in terms of their inner workings and their perceptions entering this week::

• Bills – After a primetime let down in Week 5 where the Bills lost to the Patriots, they travel to Atlanta trying to get back on track. The Bills play the Panthers next week prior to facing off with the Chiefs in Week 8. Buffalo is still in control of their division and is fully healthy on the offensive side of the ball, while they will once again be without a couple of key defenders in LB Matt Milano and S Damar Hamlin. Buffalo continues to have a balanced to run-heavy approach when they can, as Josh Allen’s only two games this season with more than 28 pass attempts were their Week 1 comeback against the Ravens and last week’s loss to the Patriots. Atlanta’s defense is the #1 ranked DVOA defense in the NFL through five weeks and is coming off their bye week, while allowing the 5th lowest yards per play in the league. Atlanta is healthy and gets their top cornerback, AJ Terrell, back from injury this week.
• Falcons – The Falcons offense runs primarily through RB Bijan Robinson and WR Drake London on a weekly basis and that will be the case to an even greater extent this week as WR Darnell Mooney will miss this game. The Falcons power running game has been their trademark this season and when they have that aspect of their offense rolling they usually have great success. The Bills are the 32nd ranked run defense in the league by multiple metrics, but have only faced one strong running game this season which was the Ravens when Derrick Henry had by far his best game of the season. In the absence of Mooney, we should expect Kyle Pitts, who is coming off his best game of the season, to be the next most targeted player after Robinson and London. This also profiles as a game where RB Tyler Allgeier is likely to have double digit carries given the strength of the rushing matchup and Atlanta’s desire to give Bijan a large workload but keep it manageable.
• Bears – Washington blitzes at a top-5 rate and is far more susceptible to the pass than the run this season, while the Bears have arguably the worst running game in the league through five weeks. They are coming off their bye week, but there does not seem to be anything they can do from a personnel standpoint to greatly improve their rushing offense in the short-term and this week’s matchup certainly doesn’t look like a spot where it will magically show up. Bears QB Caleb Williams ranks 39th in PFF passing grade when under pressure, but 6th when he is kept clean. On paper, this looks like a spot where Washington could create some havoc as Dan Quinn’s aggressive blitzing could force Williams into mistakes. Rome Odunze remains the clear top receiving option for the Bears with DJ Moore still ranking second but failing to produce much to date. Moore could be due for a breakout coming out of the team’s bye, while rookie wide receiver Luther Burden III could also see an increased role if he is able to claim some time from veteran Olamide Zaccheaus. Those two, along with tight ends Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland, are the biggest question marks around this Bears team and the usage the team deploys here among those players has a wide range of outcomes that no one outside their organization will be able to definitively say until after the games.
• Commanders – Washington held strong without Jayden Daniels for a couple of weeks and can take a share of the NFC East lead with a win here. Daniels is back at full strength, but didn’t have to do much in his return last week against the Chargers. The backfield seems to be in the hands of Jacory Croskey-Merritt after his breakout Week 5 game and Chris Rodriguez Jr. is likely to miss this one, leaving Jeremy McNichols as the other running back likely to see meaningful touches. Chicago has the 28th ranked run defense DVOA and is the only team to allow Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty to go off so far this season, while also allowing 7.6 yards per carry to Javonte Williams in Week 3. Washington has the league’s #3 ranked rushing offense and should move the ball easily on the ground. They will be without WR Terry McLaurin and the status of WR Deebo Samuel Sr. will not be determined until gametime. Zach Ertz should be a primary target for Daniels this week after his dud in Week 5, while Chris Moore will operate in the primary perimeter role in place of McLaurin although he has been running a lot of routes and not seeing many targets. Youngsters Luke McCaffrey and Jaylin Lane are interesting options this week with talent and a good matchup, while they will either rotate snaps if Deebo plays or both be on the field a lot if Deebo misses this game. 

QB Thoughts::

• It is hard to predict exactly where things will land on a short slate like this, but pricing is relatively soft while Daniels and Allen are both among the top-5 QBs in the league, so it is safe to say that they will both be heavily owned and for good reason. The interesting thing here is that usually the problem with playing the top QB option on a slate is that who to stack them with is so obvious that a large portion of your lineup looks the same as so many other people. There is an interesting dynamic on this slate as the Commanders and Bills offenses have unpredictable passing game usage, so you can play either QB and stack them in ways that won’t necessarily be super common. Another interesting way to approach it is build a lineup around either QB, then swap to the other elite QB without changing the players around them. The idea here is that either Allen or Daniels could be the top scoring QB by a decent margin from rushing production, while the other has a solid game through the air and carries multiple pass catchers to optimal games.
• Caleb Williams is in an interesting spot as the Bears are so unlikely to be able to run the ball, yet the pressure he is likely to see makes efficiency a big question mark. Does high passing volume result in a big stat line or a bunch of mistakes or both? Similar to the other situations, 
• Michael Penix Jr. is the cheapest QB option on the slate and likely to be the lowest owned. Salary is relatively loose, but if Penix is able to post a 20-point game while no one else goes over 30 then he’s probably going to be the optimal option. We also know where/how to stack (roughly) him, which makes things easier, and he can benefit from Bijan Robinson adding so much as a receiver.

My guess on final ownership::

• Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels – 30%+
• Caleb Williams – 15% to 30%
• Michael Penix Jr. – 8% to 15%

RB Thoughts::

• Bijan Robinson is probably going to be on 70 to 80% of rosters, and with good reason. His role is so huge and salary is relatively loose, while the matchup is about as good as it gets on paper. Really the paths to him not being someone you have to have in your lineup are an injury, the Falcons offense completely implodes (possible), or Tyler Allgeier steals enough of the production/points that Bijan’s score is low enough to where you can get away with not having it. It is also relevant that one of the teams on the short slate (CHI) is so highly unlikely to have a strong RB score, which makes it really tough for Bijan to not be needed. He has scored 14+ DraftKings points in 15 of his last 16 games going back to last season, so even a “down” game by his standards is probably around 20 points, which would be hard to win without on a two game slate.
• James Cook III is coming off his worst game of the season against the Patriots, but had scored 20+ DraftKings points in the four games prior to that. In my opinion he is the easiest expensive player to fade as he will surely be over 50% owned and this is probably his toughest matchup to date.
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt should be the primary running back and looks the part coming off a breakout performance. It is hard not to include him in your lineup in this spot in one of the best possible matchups.
• D’Andre Swift’s usage has kept him viable this season as he has between 9.5 and 16 fantasy points in every game so far. Coming out of the bye I have some concern that he will share more of the backfield work due to his inefficiency so far, while I also think he may be asked to block more against Washington’s constant blitzing. 
• If you read the above bullets, you’ll understand my approach for this one will be Bijan and JCM in almost every lineup. I can see cases to include Cook or Swift if it is a three running back build, but it is hard to justify a roster spot for either over the two primary guys. However, Tyler Allgeier and Jeremy McNichols are interesting options on this short slate as both are capable runners in great matchups who could see a healthy amount of touches (both probably around 8 to 12). Also, on the short slate if either of Bijan or JCM were to suffer an injury then Allgeier or McNichols would become a near must-have. I do think both of these guys are also viable Flex options to be played with their backfield teammates (JCM with McNichols, or Bijan with Allgeier). 

WR Thoughts::

• Drake London is likely to be the most popular receiver on the slate, which is interesting from a couple of different angles. First, his team’s matchup is much better on the ground than through the air. Second, the other teams have spread out passing games which makes it so that all of those WRs are harder to expect good games from, but a lot of receivers have paths to scoring 12 to 20 points at a much lower salary than London.
• Rome Odunze is very likely to have a strong game, regardless of how the Bears do as a team. The volume should be there and he is very talented. Hard to leave him off a roster unless you are betting on multiple other Bears pass catchers outperforming expectations.
• DJ Moore would be the most obvious “other guy” from the Bears to supplant Odunze. I doubt I will make any rosters without at least one of them on it. Luther Burden III is also intriguing although my guess is if I use Burden it would be WITH one of Moore or Odunze, not as the only Bears pass catcher.
• The Bills receivers are always hard to predict and this week will be no different. Khalil Shakir is the only one I truly trust as far as what his role/usage will be. Keon Coleman seems like a good candidate for shadow coverage from AJ Terrell. This leaves Joshua Palmer or Curtis Samuel as intriguing options as “guys on the field a lot with Josh Allen”. 
• Washington’s situation all depends on the status of Deebo. If he plays, he is the guy. If he doesn’t, things get interesting. I probably won’t play Chris Moore either way, but Luke McCaffrey and Jaylin Lane are super interesting guys who I think could post big games if given a full-time role rather than splitting with each other.

TE Thoughts::

• If Deebo Samuel Sr. misses this game, then Zach Ertz is my favorite tight end on the slate. If not, I probably only play Ertz on Daniels rosters.
• Dalton Kincaid has had a nice season despite playing limited snaps. He does run a route on most passing plays, however, and has three touchdowns already this season. He is questionable for this game, but expected to play.
• Kyle Pitts Sr. is in line for a big role here and has at least 7.7 fantasy points on at least 5 targets in every game this season. No Mooney should mean even more usage, so it is really a game script thing. If Atlanta can play from ahead, Pitts probably only sees 4 to 6 targets. If they fall behind, he probably gets up in the 7 to 9 range. I will be building accordingly.
• The Bears tight ends are mostly a crapshoot in this one. They will likely split time and neither has been impressive to date. They could also have to block more against Washington. It is a leap of faith to play them, but the short slate is the one place it could pay off if one of them can get in the end zone.

Strategy and Game Theory::

• We touched on a lot of this already, but salary is pretty loose once again which means we have to be somewhat creative without being stupid. This slate does have a lot more dynamics and question marks around usage than we saw on the last two game slate, which makes it a little more fun as there are a lot more paths we can try to take that are not just off the wall for the sake of it. 
• If you take the highest salary player at every position, you are $5,200 over the cap (assuming Deebo plays). If you swap Allen to Penix (which makes sense with Bijan and London on the roster) and swap Cook to Burden or McNichols, you are under the cap. I’m not saying to play that roster, but just outlining how easy it is to get under the cap while using all of the expensive guys. Only two QBs, two RBs, and three WRs have salaries over $5,600 for this slate, which means the salaries mostly don’t even matter and we should just focus on the story our roster tells and finding a path to first. If Deebo is ruled out, all bets are off really as there would just be so much value and salary to go around and it will almost be like a preseason slate.

Positional Rankings::

(My favorite plays on the slate at each position when considering all elements, including salary/ownership)

RB::

1. Bijan Robinson
2. Jacory Croskey-Merritt
3. James Cook
4. D’Andre Swift

WR::

1. Rome Odunze
2. Drake London
3. DJ Moore
4. Khalil Shakir
5. Deebo Samuel Sr.
6. Keon Coleman
7. Luke McCaffrey

TE::

1. Dalton Kincaid 
2. Kyle Pitts Sr.
3. Zach Ertz (move to #1 if Deebo is inactive)
4. Cole Kmet

SHORT SLATE-ONLY OPTIONS::

• Here are a few cheaper options that I’ll be considering on this slate that can help you make a unique lineup, but you wouldn’t be playing on the Main Slate::
  • Tyler Allgeier
  • Colston Loveland
  • Luther Burden III
  • Jeremy McNichols
  • Josh Palmer // Curtis Samuel
  • Casey Washington
  • Jaylin Lane
  • Chris Moore

Good luck and see you in the lobby at 7:15 pm ET Monday!!

-Mike (MJohnson86)