XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Time flies. It’s already Week 5, and we have the 49ers visiting the Rams to start us off. The 49ers are just crushed by injuries here: George Kittle is on IR, and all of Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, and Ricky Pearsall were ruled out on Wednesday (which is why I was waiting to write this!). Oh, and on defense, Nick Bosa is out as well. Yikes. Because of that, the game total is all the way down to 45.5 (opened at 47.5) and the Rams are 7.5-point favorites. 

SAN FRANCISCO

We’ll start with what remains of the 49ers. Christian McCaffrey has probably the best overall role in football. Here’s a fun stat: if we only looked at CMC’s receiving work and pretended he wasn’t a running back, he would be a top-10 wide receiver. Lol. But here’s the problem: San Francisco may just be deciding to punt away this game. There are two ways this could go: if the game stays close and the 49ers think they might be able to pull off an upset, maybe they ride CMC, and he gets one of his 30-touch games with 9 targets. Or, they go down big early because they’re missing too many key pieces and decide there’s no reason to risk CMC’s health, and they just eat the loss and focus on getting healthy. I really don’t know which way it’s going to play out. CMC’s ceiling is sky-high in this one, and he probably has the best overall raw projection on the slate, but that projection comes with a lot more risk and fragility than normal. That could mean that RB2 Brian Robinson gets more work than normal, or it could mean that San Francisco goes all the way down the depth chart to give Isaac Guerendo some run if the game is truly hopeless. I think both Robinson and Guerendo can be included in player pools, though I would not play them together. And given this whole situation, there’s a fair argument that every roster should include one 49ers running back. If CMC has his full role, it’s going to be monstrous, whereas if Robinson or Guerendo get meaningfully larger roles, they just aren’t priced for it. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the OWS crew is super disappointed because we’ve been hoping to play Kendrick Bourne all year…and now it’s a Showdown when everyone will play him. Keep in mind, Bourne played with backup quarterback Mac Jones in New England, and that familiarity could help him. The San Francisco wide receivers should be Bourne, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, OWS fan favorite and bane of Xandamere’s DFS existence, Demarcus Robinson, and Skyy Moore. Inspiring, eh? This is a mess, and I don’t know what to make of it. Bourne is the most expensive at just $4,600, and everyone else gets cheaper from there. Bourne’s my favorite play of the group based on his depth chart position and that he’s played with Jones before, but this entire situation is super volatile.

We can guess at how snaps and routes will play out, but we’ve never seen this situation before, so good luck projecting target share. Just recognize that any projections for the 49ers passing game are making some wild-ass guesses, but those guesses drive ownership, and thus, there’s some value in simply going another direction. A couple of years ago, the 49ers had another similar situation with two backup WRs starting. One was projected really well, the other wasn’t, and while I cannot for the life of me recall their names, the guy who was projected really well did nothing and the guy who wasn’t projected well at all had a huge game of over 20 fantasy points – just going for the “what if it’s the other guy instead?” approach won some Showdown players a huge amount of money at miniscule ownership. And yes, I know one of our industrious readers is going to DM me on Discord and tell me who the two guys were. Finally, the 49ers may call up Russell Gage or Malik Turner to serve as their WR5, and if so, they can also be included in the merry-go-round of options.

Tight end Jake Tonges is the other guy who I’m highly confident will be on the field, as he’s already a backup, and while he isn’t a super talented pass catcher, he’s a very viable play here – I’d probably rank him 2nd after Bourne in median projection. TE2 Luke Farrell is also playable as a punt option. 

LOS ANGELES

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

We get another international game this week as the Vikings and Browns will be in London on Sunday morning. Worth noting here is that the Vikings played in Dublin last weekend, which could give them a slight edge just by virtue of not having had to travel this week – they should be used to the time zone change. Fresh off a loss to the Steelers, Minnesota will look to get back on track against the mediocre Browns here in this game with a whopping 36.5 total (one of the lowest I’ve had to ever write up for Showdown, what fun) with the Vikings favored by 3.5. 

MINNESOTA

With Aaron Jones on injured reserve, Jordan Mason has been put into a pretty large role, but it isn’t full-on bell cow territory. He played 60% of the snaps in Week 3’s blowout of the Bengals and then 62% last week in a competitive game, so it looks like perhaps Week 3’s snap rate wasn’t purely due to the blowout. He’s had 16 and 19 opportunities in the two weeks since Jones went down, while backup Zavier Scott saw 9 opportunities in Week 3 (most coming in the 4th quarter) and then 10 last week, including a whopping 8 targets (second on the team!). Given that Scott played just 38% of the snaps, that kind of target rate clearly looks like an outlier, but there does seem to be a very real role here as the passing down back. It’s also worth noting that while Carson Wentz has historically had one of the highest target rates to tight ends of any quarterback in the NFL, last week T.J. Hockenson saw only 5 targets while Scott saw 8, and there’s perhaps some kind of push-pull relationship here in which Scott might have soaked up some of the short area work that otherwise would go to Hock. One game isn’t enough for me to change my overall beliefs about Wentz and his target tendencies, but I’d be wary of playing these two together on too many rosters. The matchup here is really rough against a Browns defense that is probably a top-3 unit in the league. While they have lost three games and given up 34 and 41 points in two of those losses, they have only given up a total of 281 rushing yards on the season (they also aren’t giving up many passing yards – it’s just the offense sucks, so opponents keep finding themselves in good field position). It’s unlikely that Mason or any other Viking, really, is going to rack up a massive yardage total – you’re going to need to find touchdowns, and so that leads me back to Mason as running backs, overall, have the highest touchdown equity of any position. 

In the passing game, we know Justin Jefferson is an absolute stud. He’s played almost every single offensive snap in competitive games with 98%, 100%, and 100% of the snaps in non-blowouts. He finally had the kind of performance we’ve come to expect from him last week, catching 10 of 11 targets for 126 yards. The matchup sucks, but if anybody can beat it, it’s a guy like Jefferson, leaving him in the “he’s always a premium play in Showdown” category. WR2 Jordan Addison returned last week and stepped into a big role, playing 96% of the offensive snaps. He was tied with Scott for 2nd on the team in targets, but outside of one huge 81-yard catch, he only caught 3 other balls for 33 yards. Addison is a much more volatile option as he’s reliant on big plays. He does have a solid red zone role to give him touchdown upside (17 red zone targets last year to Jefferson’s 22, and that was in two fewer games). Still, when it comes to matchups against elite-tier defenses, I’m generally going to lean towards the superstar as the guy who has the best chance to break something open. WR3 Jalen Nailor plays a lot, but with Addison back, he’s a low target earner, leaving him in the value/punt play category. Adam Thielen’s snaps absolutely vanished with Addison back as he dipped down to just a 16% snap rate.

At tight end, T.J. Hockenson is playing almost every offensive snap, and while last week he didn’t see much work, I’m personally going to trust Wentz’s much longer-term history of heavily targeting tight ends. I really wish Hock had dipped down in price after last week’s meh performance, but he went up instead to the highest price we’ve seen him at this season. That’s a bit rough, but it still feels to me as a fair salary (I was just hoping he would be underpriced, but alas). TE2 Josh Oliver has seen 3 targets all season and thus is just a dart throw.

CLEVELAND

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• The Colts rank second in EPA/play while the Raiders rank 28^th.
• The Colts are quickly becoming one of my favorite teams to watch as a real-world football fan. Their offense is a legitimate thing of beauty.
• The Colts have forced the fourth-highest pass rate against this season (36.17%) due in large part to their ability to control game environments.
• Both of these teams have forced top four rates of pass rate over expectation (PROE) defensively, although the Raiders’ value is skewed due to early matchups against the Chargers and Patriots, two teams that currently rank in the top four in PROE.
• WR Alec Pierce is due back from a missed game due to a concussion after practicing in full Wednesday.
• The Raiders could quickly find themselves in uncomfortable territory here, forced to attack the intermediate areas of the field through the air against a zone-heavy Colts team allowing the fewest FP/DB from zone this season.

How LAS VEGAS Will Try To Win ::

The Raiders have not scored more than 24 points in a game this season. The Jets have, the Panthers have, the Dolphins have, the Texans have. In fact, every other team on the Week 5 main slate outside of the Titans and Saints have. That’s just not how this team is approaching games this season considering a 22^nd-ranked PROE and 19^th-ranked pace of play (30.0 sec/play), while quarterback Geno Smith ranks 20^th in first-half pass attempts (59, or just under 15 per game), with a 59.0 QBR and 3-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio with a robust 10.0% sack rate in the first half this season. The Raiders trailed the Patriots, 10-7, at the break in Week 1, trailed the Chargers, 10-3, at the break in Week 2, trailed the Commanders, 20-10, at the break in Week 3, and led the Bears, 14-9, at the break in Week 4, while being one of only three teams on the Week 5 main slate to fail to score more than 24 points in any game this season. All of that to say, this team is almost entirely subject to game environment and is not ever really going to push things on its own, instead intent on shortening games with an aim at winning late. That makes sense considering their new head coach in Pete Carroll, who has routinely structured his teams in that manner throughout his coaching career.

Raheem Mostert made his season debt in Week 4, which immediately rendered Zamir White a healthy inactive. Dylan Laube and his special-teams involvement kept him active on game day. Enigmatic rookie Ashton Jeanty returned to a robust workload in a game environment that allowed for it, taking 21 carries for 138 yards and a score while adding two touchdowns on as many targets through the air in a true breakout performance against the Bears. That said, he has just eight total targets on the season in what should be viewed as a true yardage-and-touchdown role. The Colts have allowed 4.5 yards per carry behind the fourth-most yards allowed before contact per attempt (2.48), but the shortcomings of the Las Vegas offensive line (1.65 yards before contact) make this a neutral pure rushing matchup. Jeanty has a well-below-average 52.9% stuff rate while forcing one of the highest missed-tackle rates (0.32 missed tackled forced per attempt) in the league, highlighting a situation where his talent has had to overcome poor scheme and blocking.

The Raiders do not have a pass catcher commanding more than 24.4% of available targets (Jakobi Meyers), 0.27 targets per route run (TPRR) (Michael Mayer, albeit just seven targets on 26 routes), or 2.08 yards per route run (YPRR) (Brock Bowers). Furthermore, Geno Smith’s career red-zone struggles have not improved in Las Vegas, with just two passing scores inside the red zone on eight attempts (Tre Tucker has both red-zone scores through the air for the Raiders this season). Additionally, Meyers leads the team with a lowly 13.2 expected fantasy points per game (XFP/G) this year, reinforcing the relatively modest fantasy upside this team brings to the table through the air. Meyers (9.4-yard aDOT) and Bowers (7.6-yard aDOT) are the two pass catchers best positioned to exploit the heavy zone tendencies of the Colts, but the upside is rather limited from each.

How iNDIANAPOLIS Will Try To Win ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY PAPY324>>

• TE Juwan Johnson, T Trevor Penning, G Dillion Radunz, G Cesar Ruiz and DE Chase Young all missed practice for the Saints on Wednesday. 
• The Giants are relatively healthy with only DT Dexter Lawrence, S Tyler Nubin, and RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. missing practice on Wednesday. 
• This game is going to produce a ton of plays, but most of those are likely to be running plays. 
• The Saints are in evaluation mode and are playing hard despite being 0-4.
• The Giants are hoping to resurrect their season after Jaxson Dart injected life into the offense.
• Cam Skattebo dominated backfield touches without Tracy. 
• Malik Nabers is done for the year opening a lot of targets on the Giants 
• Kendre Miller played his most snaps of the season last week 
• Chris Olave has the biggest gap between his expected fantasy points and actual fantasy points of any WR this season.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

HOW new york WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The 1-3 Giants come into Week 5 off their first win of the season against a Chargers team that looked like a Super Bowl contender. Their first win of the season was extra encouraging because it was Dart’s first start. Dart looked capable as a runner and a work in progress as a passer, but there is no question that his presence brought energy to a lifeless offense. Skattebo also saw his first start of the year, giving the Giants a threatening backfield, something they sorely lacked to open the season. Unfortunately, the news isn’t all positive for the G-Men. Malik Nabers is done for the year due to a torn ACL, right as their backfield situation started to improve. The Giants have played at a moderate pace (15^th in seconds per play), but they seemed to speed up with Dart under center. They were second in no-huddle rate in the rookie’s first start and first in situational-neutral pace. If the Giants have decided to play at one of the fastest paces in the league with Dart running the offense, there is going to be a ton of play volume in this game. 

Crash the leaderboards

PFP the OWS pennant

The Saints have been whacked by the pass (29^th in DVOA), and below average against the run (19^th in DVOA). The Saints’ defense hasn’t been good by any measure, but it’s been especially vulnerable through the air. The Giants played fast in Dart’s first start, but they also limited his passing attempts (20) while dialing up several designed QB runs. The game plan was “hurry up and run” which led to 42 team carries spread out between Skattebo, Dart, and Devin Singletary. The Giants’ O-line has been a weakness (24^th-ranked by PFF), but they moved up four spots after a solid performance last week. LT Andrew Thomas played every snap for the first time this season and didn’t allow any pressures. It makes sense to attack the Saints through the air, but the Giants just lost their best WR, and last week it didn’t look like they wanted to let Dart air it out any more than was necessary to win. Expect the Giants to go with another run-first game plan, with the hope that they can get another win while easing Dart into the league. 

HOW new orleans WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

• The Cowboys rank 30^th in missed tackles while allowing the second most points per game this season.
• The Jets rank 32^nd in missed tackles while allowing the fifth most points per game this season.
• The Cowboys are both generating chunk plays and giving up chunk plays this season (more on this below), which has been the perfect recipe for elite game environments through four weeks.
• RB Braelon Allen hit the IR for the Jets, and they signed veteran journeyman Kahlil Herbert this week.
• The Cowboys were missing three offensive linemen in practice on Wednesday, in addition to change of pace back Miles Sanders.
• Jake Ferguson handily leads the league with 16.2 XFP/G, which jumps to 17.2 in the previous two games without CeeDee Lamb. That’s a ridiculous 28.4% higher than second-ranked Trey McBride’s 13.4 XFP/G.
• One final note of caution in an otherwise sparkling setup – the Cowboys have had drastic home-road splits the previous two seasons and have managed just 17 PPG on the road while scoring 40 points in each of their home games this year.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

The Cowboys rank 32^nd in total pass yards allowed through four games (1,237, or 309.25 per game), with a lowly 3.3% sack rate (29^th), the sixth deepest aDOT allowed (8.8), the highest deep throw rate allowed (15.6%), the most yards per attempt allowed (9.16), and the third highest completion rate allowed (73.3%) – all while generating pressure at an above average 25.7% clip. The defensive struggles have really forced their hand on offense, leading to a ninth-ranked PROE and a league-leading 68.3 plays per game. That is accompanied by a below average 29:19 average time of possession (22^nd) and a league-leading 404.3 average yards per game of total offense, meaning they are both generating chunk plays and giving up chunk plays. Talk about a perfect storm for game environments that jump off the rails! From an offensive structure standpoint, the threat of a legitimate run game (I never thought I would be saying this, but thanks to Javonte Williams and an offensive line blocking to 2.09 yards before contact per attempt) has forced their opponents to deploy single-high alignments at an above average 48.9% clip against the Cowboys this year, while they are generating a robust 0.49 FP/DB against the primary alignment.

Williams has generated an explosive run on only 4.8% of his carries this season, with the biggest benefit of his services coming via a moderately low 36.5% stuff rate. He has been consistently gaining yards for the Cowboys, which keeps them from getting behind the sticks at an above average rate. He isn’t setting the world on fire while generating only 0.11 missed tackles per attempt, but his contact balance has been on full display while generating 3.05 yards after contact per attempt. 61.5% of his total yards on the ground this season have come after contact with 1.90 yards before contact per attempt. That’s effectively a similar rushing profile to De’Von Achane (3.08 YAC/Att and 1.84 YBC/Att) but with a much lower stuff rate (46.0% for Achane), for some additional context. Williams’ 18.3 XFP/G ranks fourth in the league behind Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, and Josh Jacobs, while his 19.4 FP/G ranks sixth behind McCaffrey, James Cook, Taylor, Bijan Robinson, and Jahmyr Gibbs. Not too shabby company, for real. He gets a Jets defense allowing middling marks against the run, including 4.1 yards per carry (15^th), 2.27 yards after contact per attempt (19^th), and 0.15 missed tackles per attempt (16^th). The biggest issue I see here is the presence of three starting offensive linemen on the first injury report this week, as all of Tyler Guyton, Tyler Smith, and Tyler Booker (all the Tylers, man) missed practice Wednesday. Finally, change of pace back Miles Sanders did not practice on Wednesday with knee and ankle injuries.

Tight end Jake Ferguson had a ridiculous 0.34 TPRR and 17.2 XFP/G in the previous two games without CeeDee Lamb, and leads the league at the tight end position with 16.2 XFP/G over the course of the full season (Trey McBride is second with 13.4). For those keeping track at home, his XFP/G over the previous two weeks is a ridiculous 28.4% higher than McBride’s this year. His 0.34 TPRR rate the previous two weeks would also handily lead the league at the position, of tight ends to run more than 35 routes. The Jets rank in the middle of the pack with 13.0 DK points allowed per game to tight ends (14^th most), largely due to the way their defense is structured. I expect we might see a Sauce Gardner shadow on George Pickens this week considering the state of the Dallas pass-catching corps behind the top two options, making this a potential blowup spot for Ferguson. The Jets have also given it up from single-high alignments (third most FP/DB allowed from single-high this season at 0.64) and are in single-high at a non-negligible 48.0% clip, against which Pickens has thrived to the tune of 2.59 YPRR, a team-leading 36.9% air yards share, 0.73 FP/RR, and robust 0.56 XFP/RR this season. Only Puka Nacua, Xavier Worthy, Amon-Ra St. Brown, DeAndre Hopkins (small sample), and Adonai Mitchell (small Sample) have averaged more FP/RR against single-high than Pickens this season.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Both of these offenses have looked much worse on film than either their records or point-per-game totals would indicate.
• Both defenses rank in the top half of the league in points allowed per game, with the Broncos tied for second (16.8) and the Eagles tied for 15th (22.0).
• The Eagles average 138.0 pass yards per game on the fewest pass attempts per game (25.3).
• The Eagles are passing over 70% of the time when quarterback Jalen Hurts is in shotgun and running over 80% of the time when Hurts is under center or in pistol.
• The leader in XFP/G from both teams in this game is Courtland Sutton at a modest 13.4, which is truly remarkable.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

The Broncos are an interesting study through three weeks. On one hand, they are currently sitting at 2-2 after beating teams they’re supposed to (Titans and Bengals) and losing to teams that are more competitive (Colts and Chargers). On the other hand, both of their losses have come on opposing field goals as time expired, the first of which required one of the more seldom-called penalties in the league. What I see is a team that derives its identity from the defensive side of the ball, with an offense still searching to find its rhythm. The “spread the wealth” offensive mentality that drove us wild the previous two seasons has returned for another year, with only Courtland Sutton consistently playing more than 60% of the offensive snaps. This appears to be a team content to take the game as it comes, seldom pushing things on their own as they shorten games with sustained drives and a suffocating defense. Also of note, and something that highlights the general mentality here, is how the Broncos are playing coin tosses (I know, weird, but stick with me). They have now elected to defer every time they have won the coin toss this season, but have allowed each of their opponents to score on their opening drives (all four opponents scored three points on their first possession). The “bend but don’t break” mentality rules the defense, while they appear to be positioning themselves to steal the game in the second half in all four weeks so far.

RJ Harvey had his mini-breakout in Week 4 while seeing a season-high 19 opportunities on 41% of the offensive snaps. I don’t know how much we can read into that in a game the Broncos only allowed an opening possession field goal to the Bengals before their opponent legitimately quit on the field, something I can’t remember seeing at this level this early in the season. Last week was also the first game in the Sean Payton Broncos era where the team had a 100-yard rusher (J.K. Dobbins hit 101 yards late in the game on 16 carries). The Broncos are blocking well up front, to the tune of 2.73 yards before contact per attempt, something we expected coming into the season behind one of the top offensive lines in the league. The Eagles have slipped a bit against the run this season while allowing 4.8 yards per carry behind a non-terrible 1.79 yards allowed before contact, making this a more neutral matchup on the ground than in previous seasons. Even so, it will be difficult for either Dobbins or Harvey to return a usable fantasy score while splitting work, considering the team is averaging a middling 28.3 carries per game, with quarterback Bo Nix accounting for just over six per game. Dobbins leads the way with a solid 10.5% explosive run rate and 60% of the carries inside the five, including three of the four team rushing scores this season.

Sutton has weekly fantasy finishes of WR12, WR111, WR4, and WR13 this season (WR12 overall through four games) after finishing as a top-15 wide receiver in five of his final 10 games in 2024. Even so, he has a lowly 19.7% target share, 0.23 TPRR, 2.27 YPRR, and 13.4 XFP/G through four games this season, making him about as reliant on touchdowns as any other receiver in the league. Troy Franklin checks in not too far behind Sutton with 12.8 XFP/G, while no other pass-catcher cracks Marvin Mims’ 7.3 XFP/G. Sutton (77.5%) and Franklin (72.8%) are the only two pass-catchers in a route on greater than 50% of the team’s dropbacks this year, while each player averages 6.8 targets per game. Like you’ll see with the Eagles below, it is just so hard to return consistent fantasy production on those profiles.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The injury to Tyreek Hill is likely to fundamentally alter the Miami offense, with the likeliest scenario leading to a heavier emphasis on attacking the short-to-intermediate areas of the field through the air, similar to what they were forced to do last season.
• De’Von Achane saw a combined 19 targets in Weeks 2 and 3, and I would expect that to become closer to the norm without Hill in the fold moving forward.
• RB Chuba Hubbard and TE Ja’Tavion Sanders have yet to practice this week, as of Thursday. Hubbard reportedly emerged from the team’s Week 4 loss with an aggravated calf injury that limited him in practice the previous week. He appears to be legitimately questionable heading into Week 5.
• The paths to this game environment taking off are borderline nonexistent considering the current state of each team.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

Find JM’s Journal on Friday in The Scroll. If you are an Inner Circle member, you can read JM’s Journal on Thursday in Discord.

How miami Will Try To Win ::

Hill has been the primary downfield option in this Miami offense in each of the previous two seasons, with no other wide receiver that plays a consistent role seeing an aDOT deeper than the 9.5-yard mark Jaylen Waddle held in 2024 (8.2 in 2025). Malik Washington theoretically carries the skill set to work in a similar role, but he has held low aDOTs (5.4 in 2024, 4.3 in 2025) in this offense during his career. I don’t expect Waddle to see drastic changes to his structure in the offense, meaning the team is left bereft of a viable field stretcher moving forward. To me, that is likely to leave the offense mirroring what we saw last season, when they simply weren’t able to consistently attack downfield due to the shortcomings of their offensive line. We saw head coach Mike McDaniel alter the structure of the offense to offset those inabilities, instead focusing heavily on the short-to-intermediate areas of the field through the air. I would expect a similar approach moving forward, bringing a likely increased emphasis on Achane and newcomer Darren Waller. And since Waller managed just 10 routes on 16 offensive snaps in his first game action in almost two calendar years in Week 4, I think it’s likely we see Achane return to a role in which he is challenging for double-digit targets, considering Jonnu Smith combined with Achane to account for 11.4 targets per game a season ago.

The matchup is also pristine on the ground for Achane against a Panthers team allowing 4.9 yards per carry behind 2.12 yards before contact per attempt this year. Achane is averaging a robust 4.92 yards per carry with a middling 46.0% stuff rate and solid 0.22 missed tackles forced per attempt and 3.08 yards after contact per attempt. That said, he doesn’t have a carry inside the five and the Miami offensive line remains an issue, having blocked to only 1.84 yards before contact per Achane attempt. Achane’s ebb-and-flow aerial volume has left him ranked 12^th in the league in expected fantasy points per game (XFP/G), although he ranked third in XFP/G in Weeks 2 and 3, during which he saw 19 total targets. Considering the exploration above, I think it’s likely that level of volume returns here, making him an elite on-paper play on this slate. Rookie Ollie Gordon has seen 25% of the offensive snaps in three of four games as the primary change-of-pace and short-yardage back, including the only carries for the Dolphins inside the five this season.

Continuing the discussion above, this team is left with no true downfield threat in the absence of Hill. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ran a 4.57 40-yard dash six years ago when he entered the league and has a 3.5-yard aDOT this year, Washington has held a sub-5.5-yard aDOT in consecutive years, and Dee Eskridge has played a total of 25 offensive snaps this season. If anything, I think it could be Eskridge that functions as more of an “empty field stretcher” considering his speed (4.38 40) and veteran savvy, if nothing more than to give the offense the appearance of downfield ability. Eskridge also has a 10.7-yard aDOT this season, albeit on just three looks on only 17 routes. Waddle averages 5.8 targets per game in 2025 after averaging 5.5 looks per game a season ago, and I honestly don’t see his per-game target totals jumping immensely without Hill. You have to go back to 2021 – the year before Hill was traded to the Dolphins – to find a season in which Waddle averaged more than 7.4 targets per game (Hill is at 7.3 this season), and his 8.7 targets per game in that season was accompanied by a low 5.4-yard aDOT in the pre-McDaniel era in Miami. 

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>

• QB Lamar Jackson is expected to miss the next 2-3 games, which is a massive issue for a 1-3 Ravens team. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport called Jackson “week-to-week” but would not rule out the possibility of him playing against the Texans.
• The Ravens will also be without DT Nnamdi Madubuike (neck, IR), CB Marlon Humphrey, and LB Roquan Smith.
• LB Kyle Van Noy and DT Travis Jones were both present at practice Wednesday after missing Week 4, while CB Chidobe Awuzie, FB Patrick Ricard, T Ronnie Stanley, and CB Nate Wiggins all did not practice.
• WR Nico Collins (knee) was limited in practice Wednesday but appears to be on track to play.
• CB Derek Stingley (oblique) was a ‘DNP’ Wednesday after missing Week 4.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

The Texans rank 14^th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) while averaging 29.3 pass attempts per game, with the slowest pace of play in the league through four weeks. Quarterback C.J. Stroud’s underlying metrics are not terrible this season, ranking in the middle of the pack in most meaningful metrics. The biggest issue I see has to do with situational tendencies. Stroud ranks 21^st in early-down pass attempts (84 passes attempted on first and second down), while he has a robust 10.3% sack rate (eighth highest, of quarterbacks to attempt 15 or more passes), low 60.6% completion rate, and silly-low 0.31 FP/DB on 33 third-down pass attempts this season. It’s simple – the offense is continually finding itself in long down-and-distance situations and Stroud has been borderline dreadful in key situations, largely influenced by the pressure opponents are able to get against a poor offensive line. Stop me if you’ve heard this before. Yea, sounds a lot like what we were saying all last season. And you’re probably not surprised to learn Stroud averages the highest FP/DB on first down (a still-non-stellar 0.55) this season. I also found it hilarious that the Texans used standard elevations on fullback Jakob Johnson the first three games before just being like, “hey, sorry dude, we’ll just use some dude named British Brooks now, thanks for the three games” instead of signing him to the active roster. This franchise is just being run like a poverty franchise, with so many questionable decisions in recent history. Sorry, not sorry, Texans fans, but I have to call it like I see it. With that out of the way, I would expect the Texans to come out with their normal slow pace of play while looking to shorten the game on the strength of their defense, instead of coming out firing against an injury-ravaged Ravens team. In other words, the likeliest scenario here is that nothing changes and we’re left continually wanting more.

Rookie Woody Marks appears to have usurped established, and aging, veteran Nick Chubb for the backfield lead after handling 17 carries and seeing five targets on a team-leading 56% snap rate against the Titans in Week 4. Again, the Texans are not a team to completely trust to do what is expected week in and week out, but it certainly appears as if Marks is the lead dog in a shared backfield at present. We do have to be real about the 17 carries, as the team managed 35 team carries against a Titans team that failed to score a point. The running backs (Chubb, Marks, Dare Ogunbowale, and Dameon Pierce) have combined to average only 17 carries per game in their other three games, so volume remains a concern in all game environments other than a complete dusting of their opponent, giving at least a bit of pause for concern with the electric rookie. The matchup on the ground is a solid one considering the sheer number of injuries to the Ravens, a team that has allowed over 5.0 yards per carry in their last three games.

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The Texans have exactly one offensive snap from 12-personnel this season, and have exactly one pass catcher that plays more than 66% of the offensive snaps on a consistent basis (Collins). Christian Kirk is effectively a slot-only receiver at this point in his career, Xavier Hutchinson is not yet well-rounded enough to see a full allotment of snaps, and Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel are not yet trusted in every-down roles. Hell, even Dalton Schultz didn’t play over 60% of the offensive snaps in a game until Week 3. I’m not really sure what the end game is for this offense, to be honest, with a smattering of “let’s figure this out on the fly” mixed with “we’re really not sure what we’re doing here.” It really appears to be a “Collins or bust” proposition for the Texans through the air at present, and even then, he has one usable fantasy score in four tries. I continue to regard Collins as a true top-five wide receiver in the league today, so the blowup games are likely still in there, it’s just been a bit maddening guessing as to when they will happen. Suffice to say, he carries immense upside in this spot considering the injuries to the Ravens. Nobody else on the offense really warrants fantasy considering in the current state of this offense. 

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• The Titans offense has accumulated a grand total of three touchdowns through four games.
• Tennessee may be getting running back Tyjae Spears back from injured reserve this week, which would relieve some of the workload from Tony Pollard.
• Arizona has now lost their top two running backs from the start of the season and will split their backfield work between Emari Demercado and Michael Carter.
• The Titans 29th ranked defense provides the perfect opportunity for the Cardinals offense to get on track after a slow start to the season.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

The Tennessee offense was expected to take a step forward this season with the addition of the first overall pick from April’s NFL Draft, QB Cam Ward out of Miami. Unfortunately for the Titans, their offense has continued to be completely inept and stagnant through the first quarter of the season. To be fair, the Titans have played a very tough schedule of defenses in the Broncos, Rams, Colts, and Texans. However, they are taking things to new lows this season, averaging only 3.7 yards per play. For comparison, the worst offense in the NFL last season was the Bears at 4.5 yards per play. Something has to give, and there is a good chance that something will be head coach Brian Callahan before the season is over.

As for how the Titans try to move the ball, that is a tricky question. Their offense ranks last in passing offense DVOA and 28th in rushing offense DVOA, though a lot of their rushing production has come on a few chunk plays and/or at times when the defense is giving them space to operate. The Titans have seemingly tried to protect QB Cam Ward by limiting how aggressive he is, ranking 25th in pass rate over expectation and playing very slow and methodical football. Nearly every Titans drive early in games, when they are still in them, start with a run or a short pass and sets up a second and long situation. It is very rare that Tennessee even attempts anything in the intermediate range on early downs while the game is in question. Likewise, the Titans rank near the bottom of the league in both pre-snap motion and motion at the snap of the ball. This is a very static and vanilla approach that is likely designed to simplify things for their rookie quarterback, but it is instead leaving him as a sitting duck. Amplifying matters is the fact that Tennessee simply lacks difference making talents or game breaking athletes who could overcome the lack of creativity from the scheme. This offense looks eerily similar to what we saw from the Panthers in Bryce Young’s rookie season, with a lot of players we can convince ourselves are “good” but all of whom are best suited for complementary roles. The Titans offensive line ranks 22nd in adjusted line yards per carry and has been below average, though not terrible in pass protection. The simple fact is that defenses don’t have to be very aggressive against them because there is not a lot of fear of what they are going to create on their own, so teams can sit back and let them beat themselves. This strategy basically sums up how Arizona likes to play defense, preferring to sit in shell coverages and blitzing at a relatively low rate. This conservative style of defense prefers to keep things in front of them and force opponents to march down the field without beating themselves. That has been a problem for Tennessee so far this season.

The aforementioned supporting cast for Ward is a bit of a revolving door. At running back, Tony Pollard has carried the load and accounted for basically all of the backfield work while games are still in question, but Tyjae Spears is expected to return to the lineup in Week 5 after starting the year on Injured Reserve. Spears and Pollard will likely form some form of a committee and the explosive Spears may add an element to the offense that has been missing while also keeping Pollard fresh and making him more efficient. Anything can help right now for this struggling offense. At wide receiver, presumed WR1 Calvin Ridley has been a ghost and is now dealing with knee and elbow injuries that held him out of practice to start the week. Promising rookie Elic Ayomanor and the ghost of Tyler Lockett led the receiving corps in Week 5, with Ridley, rookie Chimere Dike, and veteran Van Jefferson also mixing in. The Titans use multiple tight ends, with Chig Okonkwo and rookie Gunnar Helm each seeing the field and Helm drawing praise from coaches this week who say his role should expand.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• The Bucs are likely to play this game without star running back Bucky Irving, due to a foot sprain. Irving will be replaced in the lineup by Rachaad White and Sean Tucker.
• Through four weeks, the Seahawks defense is one of the best in the NFL by most metrics and has been especially dominant against the run.
• Bucs WR Chris Godwin returned to the lineup in Week 4 and immediately earned 10 targets.
• Seattle’s backfield continues to be split fairly evenly between Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet. They have a tough matchup this week against the Bucs #1 ranked run defense.
• Seattle has the second lowest pass rate relative to expectation among all NFL teams, but reason to believe that will change this week.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

The Bucs are a fun team to watch play and compete and have had four very entertaining games so far this season. They continue to deal with a litany of injuries on both sides of the ball and particularly among their skill players. Tampa Bay started the season with a road win over their division rival Falcons by the grace of a missed Falcons field goal at the end of the game, then beat the Texans on the road with a touchdown in the final seconds, and survived a second half comeback by the Jets with a field goal as time expired. In Week 4, the Eagles came to town and brought a different level of opponent than Tampa had seen to that point and came out swinging, as the Bucs fell behind 24-6 at halftime. The Bucs capitalized on a couple of long touchdowns that could be classified as fluky, if not lucky. If you remove those two plays from the Bucs stats in Week 4, they averaged only 3.5 yards per play (for reference, the Titans are worst in the league this season at 3.7 yards per play). 

Obviously, removing big plays would hurt any team’s statistics, and the Eagles are a very good defense, but this week the Bucs face a Seattle defense that is ranked #1 in the NFL in defensive DVOA (2nd against the pass, 3rd against the run) and has excelled at limiting big plays. The Seattle defense has suffocated opponents as head coach Mike Macdonald’s unit is playing at an elite level in his second season with the team. This has been the case despite some defensive injuries for the Seahawks and Seattle may be without key defenders once again this week as DE Demarcus Lawrence, CB Devon Witherspoon, and S Julian Love all missed practice on Thursday. Seattle has very good personnel, but their scheme and concepts allow them to be successful at what they do even when down some bodies. The Seahawks are top-5 in the NFL in zone coverage rate and blitz at the second lowest rate in the league, leaving bodies in coverage and relying on their defensive front to get pressure.

The Bucs running game has been up and down this season, but took a big hit in Week 5 due to the likely absence of star running back Bucky Irving, who sustained foot and shoulder injuries in Week 4. He will be replaced by some combination of Rachaad White and Sean Tucker. However, given the offensive line’s injuries and struggles creating a push this season and the tough matchup, it is hard to see the Bucs creating much on the ground in this spot. The likely result would be an elevated pass rate and a focus on the short area and quick passing game. The Bucs welcomed back Chris Godwin in Week 4, and he instantly earned 10 targets. Godwin, veteran Sterling Shepard, and rookie sensation Emeka Egbuka are all very versatile and adept at working in the short areas of the field. White is likely to play the most running back snaps for Tampa Bay and his skill set as a pass catcher also fits this matchup well, while the Bucs also have tight end Cade Otton to soak up a few targets and the low blitz rate from Seattle should allow both White and Otton to get out into routes quite frequently.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• The Lions offense has been humming since an embarrassing season opener in Green Bay, averaging 41.3 points per game over the last three weeks.
• Detroit’s backfield continues to churn out production almost regardless of matchup and has an elite setup this week against the Bengals.
• Cincinnati quarterback Jake Browning’s introduction to the starting lineup has been met with an incredibly difficult schedule that doesn’t get any easier this week.
• The Bengals offensive line is among the worst in the NFL, showing an inability to get any sort of a push in the running game or stand up to opposing pass rushes. 
• Bengals wide receivers Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase have been rendered irrelevant since losing Joe Burrow.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How detroit Will Try To Win ::

The Lions still operate a relatively run heavy offense under first year offensive coordinator John Morton, who has them absolutely rolling right now. After a rocky opening week against the Packers, Detroit has been flaming their opponents to the tune of 41.3 points per game over the last three weeks. That includes a 34 point outing in Week 4 against an elite Browns defense whose offense just couldn’t sustain drives long enough to keep the Lions offense off the field. This week, the Lions get a similar matchup against a Bengals team whose offense is struggling to sustain drives, but the big difference here is the Cincinnati defense is not even close to the challenge the Browns presented.

Detroit’s implied team total as of Thursday evening is 30, and frankly, that feels pretty light. The Lions run the ball and they run it well, averaging just under five yards per carry and ranking 5th in the NFL in rushing offense DVOA. The Bengals defense ranks dead last in the NFL, allowing 5.26 adjusted line yards per carry. Detroit boasts arguably the league’s top backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery providing consistency and explosiveness on the ground that most teams can only dream about. The Bengals have missed 42 tackles this season, second most in the NFL, and the Lions dynamic running back duo is sure to quickly add to that number. This is a perfect storm as the Lions running backs are likely to be close to the second level before a Bengals defender makes contact and there is a good chance they break that first tackle as well. Detroit is likely to consistently move the ball on the ground not only efficiently, but explosively.

This expected success on the ground for Detroit puts the Bengals in quite the predicament. Their only real option to try to slow down the Lions running game is to bring more defenders into the box and essentially sell out. The Bengals blitz at the lowest rate in the league and have not been able to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks so far this season. Lions QB Jared Goff has been significantly better with a clean pocket throughout his career. Loading the box while not getting pressure on the quarterback is a recipe to give up downfield passing and this could be a spot where the Lions successfully get speedy wide receiver Jameson Williams going. Obviously, the Lions passing game operates first and foremost through Amon-Ra St. Brown, who will be busy as always although Detroit likely won’t need to lean on him as much in this spot as they have in other weeks.

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

By mike Johnson >>

• Washington welcomes back star quarterback Jayden Daniels after a two game absence, but may once again be without their top wide receiver, Terry McLaurin.
• Washington’s backfield continues to work as a three-way committee since Austin Ekeler’s injury and has been very effective doing so, ranking 6th in the NFL in rushing offense DVOA.
• Chargers rookie running back Omarion Hampton stepped into a massive workload in his first game without Najee Harris.
• The Los Angeles offensive line continues to struggle in large part due to their mounting injuries.
• Quarterback Justin Herbert continues to sling it all over the yard, as the Chargers lead the NFL in pass rate over expectation.

JM’S JOURNAL ::

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How washington Will Try To Win ::

The Commanders team we see this Sunday will be one that we have not yet seen this season. Their season opening win over the Giants was basically a walk through and relatively uneventful, as New York’s offense was putrid and barely put up a fight. After that, they faced a very good Packers defense on a short week and lost convincingly in that Thursday night game. During that game, they lost quarterback Jayden Daniels to a knee injury and Austin Ekeler’s season came to an end. As such, the Commanders played their last two games with Marcus Mariota as their quarterback and a collection of running backs rotating in, while also losing last year’s top wide receiver, Terry McLaurin, to a quad injury that held him out for Week 4 and has his status for this game in doubt. All of that to say that this is the first time we will see the Commanders in a competitive game with a full week of preparation, Daniels as their QB, no McLaurin, and the current collection of running backs manning the backfield. From that lens, a lot of the “data” and evidence we would usually use to evaluate how a team will look to play will not be very relevant to us here.

First things first, the Chargers defense struggled mightily with the rushing ability of Jaxson Dart in last week’s loss to the Giants. This obviously looms large for this matchup as Daniels is one of the most electric rushing QBs in the league. He is coming back from a knee injury, but we should expect that Washington wouldn’t have him out there unless/until he was able to be his normal, agile self. Daniels practiced in full on Wednesday, a sign that he will be full go. The Chargers pass defense has been elite, ranking third in the NFL in pass defense DVOA, but their run defense has been spotty. Expect the Commanders to attack the Chargers by using a heavy dose of RPO (run-pass option) and play-action type play designs. Daniels’ ability to make quick reads and execute them combined with his elite athleticism, is a nightmare for opposing defenses. This approach, often involving screens or quick passes to receivers, also helps to mitigate pass rushes and keeps defenses on their heels. Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has long been known for his use of the “horizontal raid” passing game, stretching defenses sideline to sideline through a variety of concepts and formations. His offense in Washington has become more diverse and vertical thanks to Daniels, but this week, since they will likely be without McLaurin, we could see a lower average depth of target and focus on the quick passing game.

It should also be noted that the Chargers defensive metrics look very good on paper, but the quarterbacks they faced have been: Mahomes without his top weapons, Geno Smith, Bo Nix, and Jaxson Dart (lost Malik Nabers in first half). Daniels at full strength will be, by far, the most difficult and dynamic QB the Chargers have had to deal with this season and could expose them in ways they have not yet seen. Mahomes, Nix, and Dart combined to average 48 rushing yards against the Chargers – making it a highly probable outcome that Daniels (assuming full health) could feast on them on the ground while also opening up rushing lanes for their backfield simply with the threat of his legs.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

This could be a fun one.

On the Washington side, the extent of my interest is Jayden Daniels, Zach Ertz, and Deebo Samuel Sr. I probably won’t use Ertz or Deebo on rosters that aren’t built around Daniels or Herbert, but both make a lot of sense paired with either QB.

Omarion Hampton is an absolute stud. The “matchup” isn’t great with Washington’s defense solid against the run, but Hampton can get there in a variety of ways and his talent and role is probably worthy of a higher salary than the current $6,500 level he is at.

Justin Herbert doubles could be fun this week. This game has paths to upside and as just discussed it doesn’t appear the Chargers will be able to run the ball with great efficiency. Herbert’s receivers and Hampton are all relatively underpriced for how concentrated things seem to be. The Chargers offensive line issues could also lead to their tight ends staying in to help with the Commanders pass rush, which would only serve to further condense things. We can’t forget Herbert’s rushing ability, either.

Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey are the receivers I am targeting from this game. QJ is the best bet in a vacuum, while McConkey makes a lot of sense from a game theory and salary standpoint.

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football brings the Patriots to Buffalo for a 49.5 total game with the Bills favored by a massive 8.5 points. Josh Allen and crew have scored at least 30 points in every game this season. And on defense, after a shootout with Baltimore to start the year, they held their next three opponents to just 50 points total. Those three opponents weren’t great offenses, but neither are the Patriots, who put up a ton of points against Carolina and Miami but struggled to score against Pittsburgh and Las Vegas. This should be a fun game with a wide range of outcomes, especially on the New England side, giving us a lot of ways we can build.

BUFFALO

On the Buffalo side of things, James Cook has been absolutely wrecking the league to start the season, scoring at least 1 touchdown in every game, at least 21.2 DK points in every game, and handling 18+ touches in every game. Those are the kinds of workloads we hadn’t seen from Cook previously, and that’s what held him back from a fantasy perspective. Josh Allen is still a big threat to vulture touchdowns as they are tied with 8 carries each from inside the 10 yards line, but with Buffalo scoring as much as they have, and with Cook’s workload as robust as it is (18, 22, 22, 26 touches this season which is 20+ touches in every game they’ve led start to finish – Buffalo isn’t holding back on him like they used to), he’s an elite play. Ty Johnson will get some RB2 snaps, but that has only led to a total of 8 carries and 5 targets through four games – you’ll almost certainly need a touchdown for him to pay off – and then Ray Davis got some garbage time carries against the Jets but is otherwise uninvolved. I’d only really consider playing him in 5-1 Bills onslaughts. 

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In the passing game, good freaking luck. Curtis Samuel returned last week and that led the Bills to have SIX wide receivers plus three tight ends play material snaps. Good grief. The wide receivers, in order of snaps from last week, were Keon Coleman, Kalil Shakir, Samuel, Elijah Moore, Josh Palmer, and Tyrell Shavers. The only guy in anything really close to a full-time role is Coleman, who has played 73% or more of the snaps in three weeks (and the one week he didn’t was a blowout in which even Josh Allen sat by the end of the game). Coleman also has one very nice ceiling game this season of 28.2 DK points, and has then failed to surpass 7.5 DK points in the other three games. At $8k, that’s a really difficult profile to invest in, but he does have a ceiling. Shakir brings a bit more floor with shorter, safer routes and a high catch rate. He’s still a tough sell at his price. The rest of the wide receivers are all pretty dart throw-ish. Palmer’s snap rate has declined in every game since Week 1. Moore is not playing a lot, but has at least gotten a carry in every game so far. Samuel was only active for the first time all season last week. All of these other four guys feel extremely fragile. Gun to my head, I’d prefer Samuel and Moore as their prices are cheap and Moore has some carry upside, but they’re all really weak options.

At tight end, Dalton Kincaid is the guy everyone thinks of, but Dawson Knox is leading him in snaps so far. The problem for Knox is that it’s only translated to 8 targets for the season. Kincaid is much more involved when he’s on the field (18 targets), and he’s leading the team in red zone targets as well, but he’s also $7,400 – far above what we see for most TEs in Showdown, and his role doesn’t really justify that level of pricing. TE3 Jackson Hawes has exactly 1 target and 1 catch in every game. This offense just spreads the ball around SO much – the most dependable options are priced far too high for their floors and median outcomes, but they do bring ceilings to the table. The entire pass catching corps are volatile tournament-only options. I’ve grown to really hate the Bills when they’re on Showdown slates.

NEW ENGLAND

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

We’ll wrap up Week 5 with the Chiefs visiting the Jaguars for a 45.5 total game in which Kansas City is favored by 3.5. The Chiefs are fresh off an obliteration of the badly-injured Ravens defense in which they put up 37 points, while the Jags are 3-1 thanks to some solid defense despite Trevor Lawrence playing some of the worst football of his career. 

KANSAS CITY

The Chiefs backfield is still a split with Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt both playing meaningful snaps. Pacheco has played more than Hunt so far, up until last week when Hunt took a 44% – 37% snap share lead, but I think that was also partly due to the game blowing out, which let backup Brashard Smith play and take some late-game work that otherwise probably would have gone to Pacheco. The backfield is tough to trust, but the prices at least work with Pacheco at $6,200 and Hunt all the way down at $4,200. That’s probably about fair, I think, given their respective workloads (Pacheco is averaging 10.2 opportunities per game while Hunt is at 10.5). Neither are inspiring plays, as the Jags have been much better against the run than the pass so far this year. I’ll lean towards Pacheco even at a higher price as Hunt has looked just abysmal so far. Hunt’s been averaging well under 4 yards per carry and he isn’t being used as much in the passing game as he used to be, so I think that while both have seen modest workloads so far, there’s room for Pacheco’s to grow, while I think the same is highly unlikely for Hunt.

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In the passing game, the return of Xavier Worthy was extremely welcome last week. Despite wearing a shoulder brace, Worthy led the team in targets, catches, and yardage. He should be back closer to a full snap count this week, which gives him further upside, and the matchup is more favorable through the air – wheels up for Worthy here, who really is the WR1 of this offense currently with Rashee Rice still out. At $8,800, it’s a more than fair price. I’m in. Hollywood Brown is the WR2 and is seeing solid target volume, but with an aDOT of just 7.7 yards, it’s tough for him to find a ceiling for his price – he almost certainly needs a touchdown to do it. He’s a reasonable play, but Worthy is clearly a much better one. JuJu Smith-Schuster is in a similar role to Hollywood, running low aDOT routes, and while Hollywood has better YAC ability, JuJu’s bargain basement price of $4,800 keeps him firmly in play. Finally, Tyquan Thornton saw a big hit to his snap rate with Worthy’s return (which was a bummer for us OWS analysts, as we all thought it would impact JuJu, not Thornton). He’s still in a deep role that gives him ceiling on limited targets, but it’s unlikely he exceeds 50% of the snaps here, making him a very volatile boom or bust option. At $5,200, he’s a bit overpriced for that kind of high-variance role. I’ll still want some because he does have a solid ceiling, but the floor is shaky.

One thing to note: we expected Worthy’s return to impact JuJu because of the shoulder brace restricting his movement and ability to run and catch deeper stuff. The shoulder definitely did impact that, but JuJu still played over Thornton. There IS at least a possibility that the Chiefs switch things up, run Brown and Worthy on more shorter stuff, and have Thornton on a deeper route tree with JuJu playing less. It’s a bit of a long shot, but it’s worth considering – in that case it’s a bit of a ding to Worthy’s ceiling, it makes JuJu largely unplayable, and it would be a big boost to Thornton.

At tight end, Travis Kelce is a more floor than ceiling play at this point in his career, with a season high of 61 receiving yards. He can still find solid outcomes, especially as his price continues to tick down ($7,600 is the cheapest I can ever remember seeing him), so he’s viable, but I’d rather play Worthy personally. Worth noting: Kelce has 4 red zone targets this year, while JuJu has 5, Brown has 4, and Thornton has 3. TE2 Noah Gray is a punt option. 

JACKSONVILLE