XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 5 begins with Chicago visiting Washington for a 44.5 total game with Washington favored by 6.5. Some really fun island games we’ve been having so far this season between the NFL’s best teams, eh? The Bears are atrocious at 0-4 with a negative -62 point differential, while the Commanders are 2-2 but with a -31 point differential. We have a war of two bad teams on our hands. Both teams have allowed at least 30 points per game on average (30 on the dot for Washington, just shy of 32 for Chicago), while both teams have also struggled on offense with just shy of 19 offensive points per game for the Bears and about 22 for the Commanders. Washington’s defense is not quite this bad, really, but they’ve faced the Bills and the Eagles in the early going (though they also gave up 33 to the Broncos), while the Bears defense has been one of the worst units in the NFL so far. This is a pretty interesting slate for us to target with two bad teams that create a wide range of potential outcomes. Let’s see if we can figure it out. 

Washington

On the Commanders side, the run game is split between Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson, with Robinson as the primary two-down back with minimal pass game work while Gibson holds the third down/change of pace back role. Robinson’s role has led to him averaging 15 carries per game and just shy of two targets while Gibson is at roughly three carries and 2.5 targets per game (woe to the Best Ball drafters who were taking Gibson ahead of Robinson). Their roles are very sensitive to game script. In Week 3, when the Commanders were trounced 37-3 by Buffalo, Gibson played his highest snap count of the season at 61% with Robinson at a season low of 37%, with Gibson seeing seven opportunities (including five targets) while Robinson saw just 10 carries and no targets. Given how their roles are tied to game script, I would be cautious of playing them together. I wouldn’t entirely block their ability to both appear in flex on the same roster but I would apply a negative boost to limit those pairings. I would also block Gibson from appearing on any Robinson captained rosters. We know the matchup is great against a Bears defense that is giving up an average of 115 yards per game on the ground (and they haven’t exactly faced the league’s best rushing attacks, either). While Robinson has game script risk, that makes how to use him fairly straightforward. In rosters predicated on the Commanders winning the game, he’s a strong piece who is at worst fairly priced for his talent, opportunity, and matchup (and probably a bit on the cheap side), but in rosters built around the Bears pulling off the upset, he’s overpriced while Gibson becomes an interesting piece. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

The Washington passing game has two key players questionable in Jahan Dotson and Curtis Samuel. Both have gotten in limited practices so far (I’m writing this Tuesday afternoon) so my guess is they are more likely to play than not, but will update this article if we get any other news with sufficient time before lock (if the news is late, hop in Discord). Assuming they’re in, the primary wide receivers will be Terry McLaurin, Dotson, and Samuel, with Dyami Brown and Byron Pringle rotating through. Early season target distribution so far has McLaurin with 26, Dotson with 25 (albeit with a gross aDOT), Samuel with 20 (plus his usual handful of rush attempts), Brown with seven, and Pringle with three. The matchup here is extremely favorable against a Bears defense that can’t really stop anyone. McLaurin’s obviously a strong option, competing with DJ Moore for the best pass catcher on the slate. I think I have a slight lean to Moore as the superior player, and don’t really love that McLaurin is priced all the way up at $10k. Dotson is a much better value with similar volume but just $7k, while Samuel is somehow just $5,600 – a superb price for someone with his target share, a little bit of occasional rushing work, and good red zone usage. He’s my favorite of the Commanders pass catchers, and I’m curious to see how high ownership gets here as he’s in that mid-range of price that often gets a bit overlooked. At tight end we’re seeing Logan Thomas in a role similar to what he played a couple of years ago, enjoying the bulk of the snaps and a reasonable 14 targets so far on the season. At $5,200, he isn’t as good of a play on paper as Samuel (you’re paying essentially the same price for ⅔ the volume). Thomas is still fairly priced, it’s just that Samuel is a glaring value. Backing up Thomas will be John Bates, and then Cole Turner will have a very modest role, giving them both some MME punt appeal. 

Chicago

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 5 brings us another London game with the Bills traveling to take on the Jaguars, who have been there since last week. I’m curious how staying overseas will help the Jags, if at all . . . maybe some edge just due to having had more time to adjust to the time zone difference? I don’t know how to quantify that but as someone who’s traveled to Europe a fair number of times, I could see it being impactful. Anyhow, this game has a 48.5 total with Buffalo favored by 5.5. The Bills have been rolling to start the season. After being stifled by the Jets elite defense in Week 1, they’ve scored 38, 37, and 48 points (albeit against fairly weak opposition). The Jags, on the other hand, have struggled offensively. They put up a healthy 31 against the Colts in Week 1, but have then scored just 9, 17, and 16 offensive points over the last three weeks (they had a defensive touchdown in the Falcons game last week). We can have pretty solid confidence that the Bills will score, and the question of how this game will play out depends on whether the Jags can break out of their offensive woes. 

Buffalo

On the Bills side, just when it looked like they were using James Cook in a real RB1 role, he disappeared in Week 4 with just 40% of the snaps (vs. at least 59% in every other game) and 13 running back opportunities (at least 18 in every other game). I expect, however, that this was due more to the Bills absolutely crushing the Dolphins, as the game was 31-14 at halftime, and Cook had nine carries in the first half and just three in the second. The Bills have often perplexed us with their backfield usage but my best guess is that if the game is competitive, Cook’s role looks more like what he had in Weeks 1-3 than what he had in Week 4. Latavius Murray and Damien Harris will back up Cook, with Murray seeing more snaps and opportunities in every game than Harris. Both are viable options as “running backs who are on the field in Showdown,” with Murray being the overall preferred play and both of them looking like stronger options if we’re building for the Bills to romp. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, we know how the Bills operate: Stef Diggs is the alpha receiver and then it’s a merry-go-round behind him. There’s not really much to say about Diggs. The dude’s a badass, he’s averaging just shy of ten targets per game on the season with four touchdowns and three games of 100+ receiving yards. At $11,800, he’s priced like a true alpha, but he is one. He’s the best position player in this game, but he’s awfully expensive and there are plenty of other viable options, so while he’s a strong play, he’s hardly a must play (in both cash and tournaments). In order of snap count, the rest of the wide receiver group is Gabe Davis, Trent Sherfield, Deonte Harty, and Khalil Shakir, with tight end being manned by Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid, and Quintin Morris. Plus, Cook and Murray both have some passing game role. Once you get past Diggs, this offense spreads the ball around quite a bit, leaving it hard to have a high degree of confidence in any one pass catcher. Davis is on the field the most but with just 18 targets on the season, he’s overpriced for his volume at $7,200 and highly reliant on scoring a touchdown (preferably a long one) in order to hit. His deep threat role gives him upside on relatively modest volume but it’s hard for me to click this on a slate with a lot of strong offensive plays at his price. Sherfield is interesting as a floor/value play as he’s on the field quite a bit and is just $800. So far Sherfield’s role hasn’t translated to a lot of targets but he’s someone I’d be comfortable with as a value option in cash and in tournaments, you’re just hoping he gets into the end zone. Harty and Shakir will both be on the field less than Sherfield but both should still be involved in the passing game, with Harty actually averaging three targets per game despite his limited snap count. Harty is a guy whose role I expect will grow over the course of the season, and in those situations, I generally want to try to be early and get on a guy before the role change occurs. He’s plenty cheap at $1,200, he has at least two catches in each game, and that makes him more than a complete punt play. The tight ends Kincaid and Knox are also interesting at their prices, especially Kincaid, who is being used more like a wide receiver and is averaging a reasonable 4.25 targets per game so far. Morris is just a blocker without a target on the season. This is a tough offense to untangle because of how spread out it is behind Diggs, but I would say Harty is my next favorite option given his price, then Kincaid, then Davis, Knox, Sherfield, and finally Shakir. 

Jacksonville

GAME OVERVIEW ::

By hilow >>

• The Falcons run man coverage at a top 10 rate in the league and just had A.J. Terrell line up opposite Calvin Ridley on 79 percent of their snaps last week.
• Nico Collins ranks third in fantasy points per route run (per PFF, 1.13) and carries the top overall receiving grade against man coverage (per PFF).
• Tank Dell ranks sixth in fantasy points per route run against man coverage (per PFF).
• C.J. Stroud has averaged more than 300 pass yards per game and has thrown six touchdowns this season, five of which have gone to Collins or Dell.
• The Texans face the third-highest neutral rush rate against this season and the Falcons sport the league’s highest rush rate over expectation (RROE).
• After starting the season in a near-even timeshare with Tyler Allgeier, Bijan Robinson has garnered snap rates of 72 percent, 81 percent, and 76 percent over the previous three games, handling 62.8 percent of the team’s running back opportunities during that timeframe.

HOW HOUSTON WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Texans have been one of the more pleasant-surprise offenses in the league through the first month of play. I would attribute most of that success to offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and Stroud, each of whom have been a breath of fresh air. Slowik hails from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree after serving under the San Francisco head coach for six seasons prior to his hiring in Houston. Now, consider the fact this team has scored 24.0 points per game through four weeks (15^th) on the backdrop of it missing four of its starting offensive linemen with a rookie quarterback and it seems that much more impressive. The Texans have played at pace (fifth-ranked 27.1 plays per second) with a pass-balanced attack (18^th-ranked pass rate over expectation) and have rattled off consecutive wins over the Jaguars and Steelers while scoring 67 points during that run. Their 38.0 pass attempts per game ranks fifth in the league, which makes sense considering the relative inefficiencies of their run game thus far.

Dameon Pierce leads a backfield that has transitioned to more of a 1-2 punch after starting the season as a three-headed monster during the team’s first two games. Pierce has accounted for 66.4 percent of the team’s available backfield opportunities but has struggled to a 2.8 true yards per carry and just 3.5 yards per touch, which again makes sense considering the injuries to the team’s offensive line. Left tackle Laremy Tunsil, right guard Shaq Mason, and left guard Josh Jones all got in a limited session on Wednesday after either missing extended time or getting banged up in Week 4. The transition to a dual-back backfield between Pierce and change-of-pace back Devin Singletary has come at the expense of journeyman Mike Boone, the latter whom has played just eight total offensive snaps in the two games since returning from an injury that forced him to miss the team’s Week 2 loss to the Colts. Slowik stated that the team didn’t intend to be so pass-heavy during the first two games of the season, which he deemed more necessity than plan due to the ineffective rushing attack and injuries up front. During their two-game win streak, Stroud has attempted 60 passes compared to 55 team running back carries, which backs up the assertion of a more pass-balanced approach that was brought up above. The matchup on the ground is not ideal against a Falcons team holding opposing backfields to just 3.9 yards per attempt and the efficiency of the run game has been lacking, but Slowik should continue to strive for balance in neutral-to-positive game environments. Finally, the Texans see the highest rate of eight or more defenders in the box on running back carries this season.

The true breakout from this team has come through the air, with Stroud and Slowik combining to look more than capable in their first taste of NFL action. The layered route concepts introduced by Slowik and the spread nature of the offense have led to the second-highest cushion amongst the four primary pass-catchers, behind only the Washington Commanders. As in, Slowik is actively designing an offense to get his playmakers the ball in space. Collins and Dell are in the midst of true breakout seasons, with Collins holding elite underlying metrics in YAC (195, first), yards per reception (19.5, third), yards per route run (3.57, fourth), juke rate (40.9 percent, first), and a solid 12.0 aDOT, and Dell carrying 2.32 YPRR (18^th), 16.7 YPR (15^th), and a solid 12.3 aDOT (33^rd). Stroud currently ranks 12^th in intended air yards per pass attempt, ninth in completed air yards per completion, fourth in total pass yards, and sixth in total intended air yards through four games.

The offense began the season operating from an 11-personnel base with tight end Dalton Schultz a near-every-down tight end but has since transitioned to extreme levels of 12-personnel usage during the previous two weeks. The matchup through the air is a difficult one against a Falcons defense built on versatility. Last week, Terrell shadowed Ridley on 79 percent of the offensive snaps, which allowed the Atlanta defense to play more man coverage than we’ve seen to this point in the season. Even so, the Falcons carry top 10 rates of man coverage into Week 5. Collins currently ranks third in fantasy points per route run (per PFF, 1.13) and carries the top overall receiving grade against man coverage (per PFF), while Dell ranks sixth in fantasy points per route run against man coverage (per PFF). Finally, Stroud has thrown six touchdowns this season, five of which have gone to either Collins or Dell.

How atlanta Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Amon-Ra St. Brown did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday while dealing with an abdomen injury.
• Jameson Williams makes his season debut after seeing his six-game suspension reduced to four games – his 4.39 speed and downfield acumen bring one of the missing pieces to this Lions offense.
• David Montgomery has played two games where he wasn’t injured during or missed entirely – in those games; he has seen 53 carries and two targets.
• Montgomery has also scored five touchdowns in what amounts to 2.5 games worth of offensive snaps.
• The rushing matchup for Detroit yields the week’s third-best net-adjusted line yards metric in one of the biggest mismatches of the week.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

The Panthers rank near the middle of the pack in pace (19th-ranked 28.8 seconds per play) and pass rate over expectation (21st), averaging a robust 67.8 offensive plays per game, 24.0 rush attempts per game, and an extreme 40.3 pass attempts per game. A large reason for those gaudy pass numbers has been the routine negative game environments this team has found themselves in during the first four weeks of play, with their -35 point differential ranking eighth worst in the league. Head coach Frank Reich’s offense has also been fairly mundane, playing near league average rates of 11- and 12-personnel with route concepts that adhere to the standard route tree. In other words, we haven’t seen much in the way of forward-leaning principles in this offense up to this point in the season, which is likely a combination of the youth present and Reich’s largely conservative approach.

Miles Sanders has started all four games at running back for the Panthers despite being questionable heading into Week 4. His 67.0 percent opportunity share ranks 15th in the league, but his paltry 2.9 true yards per carry ranks 55th, and the Panthers have struggled mightily in run-blocking metrics. And that isn’t even a product of teams stacking the box against Carolina as Sanders averages just 6.3 defenders in the box on his carries this season, which is one of the lowest stacked box rates in the league (he has seen a light front at the eighth highest rate this year). In other words, the Carolina offensive line can’t block well in the run game, and Sanders’ low juke rate (41st) and minuscule breakaway run rate (38th-ranked 1.8 percent) are not providing enough on his own. Chuba Hubbard has played a “change of pace plus” role for the Panthers this season, with 116 total snaps checking in amongst the league leaders for “backup” running backs. The matchup on the ground is about as gross as they come, with Detroit ranking second in yards allowed per carry this year.

Things don’t get much rosier through the air. Rookie quarterback Bryce Young holds the lowest completed air yards per completion in the league this season at 2.9 yards, indicating an offense that has struggled to both attack downfield and find success in efficiency when they do pass. His 6.4 IAY/PA ranks 30th, he is tied for eighth most sacks taken, and he has been pressured at the eighth highest rate this year. Those individual metrics now make sense when taken in context with the team dynamics. Veterans Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark operate as the near-every-down pass-catchers for this offense, with Terrace Marshall and Laviska Shenault combining for the remainder of the wide receiver snaps. The team utilizes a messy three-headed timeshare at tight end with near league-average 12-personnel rates, typically leaving no more than 60 percent of the offensive snaps to any one of Hayden Hurst, Tommy Tremble, and Ian Thomas.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• After missing the team’s Week 4 contest with a knee injury, wide receiver Treylon Burks has yet to practice this week (as of Thursday).
• Sound the alarm! Jonathan Taylor was a full participant in each practice period this week (as of Thursday) – it appears he will likely make his season debut against the Titans after calling his recent contract dispute with the team “an offseason issue.”
• Kwity Paye (concussion) and Shaquille Leonard (groin) have yet to practice this week for the Colts, two staples of their defense.
• Tennessee’s offensive line is blocking to just 1.06 yards before contact per rush, which ranks second worst in the league this year (behind only Carolina).
• Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson is one of the most dynamic athletes in today’s game, and he brings weekly upside with both his arm and legs.
• The Colts have played at the fastest pace in the league through the first month of play.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Run the damn ball and make it so the other team can’t run the damn ball, that’s how. Joking aside, that has been the formula for this Titans team for the previous four seasons, and there are no signs of that stopping any time soon, at least for as long as head coach Mike Vrabel remains in town. The biggest problem for this Titans team this season has been their offensive line, a unit blocking to just 1.06 yards before contact and allowing pressure at a 31-percent clip, both of which rank 31st in the league. Even for King Henry, it’s hard to establish any semblance of stability when your offensive line is struggling to that extent. Tennessee runs the slowest offense in the league at 32.6 seconds per play and holds the league’s fourth-highest rush rate over expectation, both of which were to be assumed coming into the season.

Derrick Henry has seen some of his empty snaps move to rookie Tyjae Spears this season, but he still carries a borderline elite 70.4 percent opportunity share (13th) and has seen the second-most carries of all backs this year. His actual yards per carry value is down at 3.7 (39th), which highlights the struggles of the Tennessee offensive line up to this point in the season. He has also seen a laughably high 7.1 average defenders in the box due primarily to the team tipping their hand when he is on the field (his high snap-to-touch ratio makes it evident what the team is doing when he is on the field), and his stacked front carry rate is the fourth highest in the league. Even so, Henry always has a path to 30 or more running back opportunities in the right environment, which doesn’t necessarily speak to the matchup as much as a game environment that remains competitive throughout. The matchup on the ground is neutral-to-negative against a Colts defense, ceding just 3.8 yards per carry this year. That said, they have allowed six rushing scores through four games, which is tied for the second most on the season. Spears should continue serving as the primary change of pace back. Still, he holds a low 29.6 percent opportunity share despite a solid 50.2 percent snap rate and a modest 0.74 fantasy points per opportunity, the last of which ranks 36th in the league.

Alpha wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins came into the team’s Week 4 contest with a questionable tag due to a lingering ankle issue, which could help explain his diminutive-for-him 53 percent snap rate in that contest. Treylon Burks has yet to practice this week (as of Thursday) after missing Week 4’s contest and appears unlikely to play again in Week 5. That should leave Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Chris Moore in elevated roles against the Colts, two players who are borderline NFL talents. Tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo also set his lowest snap rate of the season in Week 4 at 65 percent, likely due to the team wanting to get better run-blocking tight ends on the field (Trevon Wesco, Josh Whyle, and even Kevin Rader). Now take all of that against the backdrop of just 27.3 pass attempts per game, and we’re left with little to no upside from any member of this pass offense on a weekly basis.

How indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Wink Martindale’s Giants defense has been in man coverage at the highest rate in the league through the first month of play (45.1 percent), ranking second in blitz rate (49.6 percent) and forcing the third shallowest defensive aDOT (6.7).
• Even with the continued utilization of heavy blitz rates, the Giants rank 23^rd in pressure rate, have just four sacks in as many weeks, and have missed the second most tackles (40).
• Miami leads the league in explosive rush rate and the Giants have given up the fifth highest rate of explosive rush plays.
• I’m writing this before the teams release their first injury reports of the week, but the big name to keep an eye on is Giants running back Saquon Barkley, who went into the team’s Week 4 Monday Night Football game doubtful and was ultimately held out. I honestly have no clue what to expect with the team on a short week, and they are likely to only run a walkthrough practice on Wednesday considering their late-week game in Week 4, so monitor the situation carefully this week. Saquon’s presence would be a big boost to the game environment here.
• The Dolphins lead the league in points per game at a whopping 37.5. Even if we remove their 70-point outburst against the Broncos, this offense is averaging 26.67 points per game in their other three games this season, which came against the Chargers, Patriots, and Bills. That would still rank eighth in the league. This offense can put up points with the best of them.
• Miami averages a ridiculous 511.0 yards of offense per game this season, which is 113.0 more per game than the second place 49ers (LOL!).
• The Giants average the second fewest yards per game this year at just 252.0.
• Yup, you read that right – the Dolphins average more than double the yards per game than the Giants.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

Man, I honestly have no clue how the Giants are going to try and win this game. The Dolphins have faced some of the lowest rates of man coverage over the previous two seasons because their personnel and scheme can absolutely decimate man coverage. But at the same time, Wink Martindale has a long history of running some of the highest rates of man coverage in the league behind some of the highest blitz rates in the league. As such, I expect Wink to continue to operate his defense within his wheelhouse, which spells trouble against this particular opponent. On offense, we have a Giants team that has scored just four offensive touchdowns this season, three of which came in the second half of their Week 2 game against the Cardinals. Daniel Jones has accounted for three of those scores, with two passing and one rushing. Finally, the Giants average just 252.0 yards of offense per game this season, which is less than half that of the Dolphins (LOL!). And it’s not like this offense has only struggled against man-heavy or zone-heavy teams – they got shut out against the defense playing the highest rates of man coverage this season in Week 1 (Cowboys) and struggled mightily against the zone-heavy 49ers and Seahawks. This particular matchup aligns a lot with their matchup from Week 4 against the Seahawks (who lead the league in zone coverage rates). The Dolphins blitz a moderate 29.1 percent and are generating pressure at a solid 25.8 percent clip, which is going to force Daniel Jones into quick and accurate reads, an area of his game he has yet to fully master (that’s putting it lightly).

There is some uncertainty surrounding the run game this week due to Saquon Barkley’s availability. The Giants are clearly a better team with Barkley on the field, a back that has managed a robust 85.1 percent opportunity share (second) on the backs of an 83.5 percent snap rate (third) when healthy. His elite 88.1 percent route participation rate highlights just how much he means to this offense. The Dolphins are allowing 4.3 yards per carry and six rushing scores this season, making the matchup non-prohibitive. Saquon is also about as game script-proof as they come considering his robust pass game involvement, making him an interesting yet speculative option should he play. Should Barkley miss, expect Matt Breida to once again serve as the lead back for an offense that has managed just 26 running back carries during the last two weeks without Barkley.

Lord have mercy on this pass offense in its current state, fresh off allowing 10 sacks to a Seahawks defense that managed just six sacks during their first three games of the season. Wan’Dale Robinson and rookie Jalin Hyatt surged in snap rate in Week 4, each playing more than 60 percent of the team’s offensive snaps for the first time this season. Darius Slayton continues to run the most routes and hold the largest snap rate in this offense, but is utilized primarily as an empty-route safety manipulator downfield. Isaiah Hodgins and Parris Campbell should round out the wide receiver corps but were both down below 37 percent snap rates a week ago. Offseason free agent addition Darren Waller has yet to be fully showcased in this offense but provides a solid on-paper mismatch against the zone-heavy nature of the Miami defense. His utilization has been promising to this point in the season, carrying a solid 90 percent route participation rate (seventh), 26.2 percent air yards share (second), and 9.2 aDOT (fourth) through the season’s first four weeks. At some point, things are going to trend upward for the Giants, and Waller is likely to be one of the primary points of emphasis. Finally, Robinson’s laughable aDOT (4.2) makes for a tough sell while Hyatt maintains some level of intrigue with a more robust downfield role (30.0 aDOT doesn’t qualify on just three targets this season, but his 60 percent snap rate in Week 4 hints at increased utilization at some point).

How Miami Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>

• The best plays from this game are the defenses.
• Derrick Carr had an absurdly low 3.4 yards per attempt last week.
• Alvin Kamara had 33 yards on 13 catches last week.
• The Patriots defense is missing several key starters.
• The Patriots backfield is becoming a timeshare.
• Both offensive coordinators look lost.

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

The 2-2 Saints come into Week 5 off an embarrassing performance where they were soundly beaten 26-9 by division rival Tampa Bay. The Saints played their first three games within three points against the Titans // Panthers // Packers, and they are better than the result they got in Week 4. Once upon a time, I had an old school high school football coach who when any time you were banged up would ask, “You hurt or you injured?” Derrick Carr lied when he answered, “Hurt.” He had a pathetic 3.4 yards per attempt and it was clear to anyone watching that Carr was incapable of throwing the ball downfield. If it was obvious to onlookers, it was obvious to the Bucs, who simply squatted on the Saints offense. It would make sense that Dennis Allen would regret the decision to start Carr, given the outcome, when he had a viable backup in Jameis Winston. However, as it stands, Carr is in line to get the start again this week.

The Saints have played fast, pass-leaning football on offense, but that doesn’t mean much if your QB can’t throw the ball more than 10 yards. Pete Carmichael Jr. runs a vanilla offense, using play action and pre-snap motion at the lowest rates in the league. Don’t expect the scheme to adjust. The Saints O-line isn’t good (23^rd ranked by PFF) and it doesn’t help matters that RG Cesar Ruiz and his backup Andrus Peat both left last week’s game with a concussion. The Patriots defense is above average against the run, and it’s unlikely the Saints will be able to get much going on the ground. The Patriots rely heavily on man coverage, which is vulnerable to big plays when defenders get beat deep, especially with star corner Christian Gonzalez looking likely to miss the rest of the season. Without the threat of the long ball, it’ll be a tough day for the Saints. Unless Carr’s shoulder shows substantial progress, the Saints would be wise to start Winston. That probably won’t be the decision in a league that values toughness as its top priority. With their run game likely to be ineffective, expect a similar approach to last week, where the Saints play their typical quick, vanilla, pass-leaning style, but without the ability to throw downfield.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Rashod Bateman returned to a full practice Wednesday, while Odell Beckham Jr. remained a limited participant with his ankle injury.
• Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth was labeled “very doubtful” for Sunday by head coach Mike Tomlin.
• Four Pittsburgh starting offensive linemen missed practice Wednesday (Dan Moore, Isaac Seumalo, James Daniels, and Chukwuma Okorafor).
• Kenny Pickett left the team’s Week 4 loss to the Texans with a knee injury and was limited in practice to start the week – he anticipates playing in Week 5 with a knee brace.
• Diontae Johnson remains out of the Pittsburgh lineup for at least one more game.
• The Steelers have been in man coverage at a 25.9 percent clip this season, which ranks 12th in the league; their 48.4 coverage grade when in man ranks 29th, per PFF.
• Of Baltimore wide receivers, only Odell Beckham Jr. (44.4 percent) and Zay Flowers (25.9 percent) carry target rates higher than 18 percent against man coverage.
• Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers set up well to exploit this matchup through the air, with expected volume as the biggest detractor.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

After ranking sixth in rush attempts per game in 2022 at 31.2m, Todd Monken’s 2023 Ravens offense averages 34.8 rush attempts per game, behind only the Philadelphia Eagles (who also led the league in that category last year). And that’s not a case of “this offense is running more plays per game, so obviously they will average more rush attempts per game when compared to a season ago” as much as it is “this offense is not operating with the spread nature we thought after Monken was hired to this point in the season.” They are averaging 63.8 offensive plays run from scrimmage per game compared to 62.1 a season ago, continue to play at a slow pace (27th-ranked 29.7 seconds per play compared to 26th-ranked 30.2 a season ago), and continue to operate a run-balanced offense (league-low 26.3 pass attempts per game). They rank near the middle of the pack in pass rate over expectation this year. So, what has changed with Monken in town? The most significant effective change in this offense this season is the reduction of 12-personnel rates, of which most of those snaps have now transitioned to 11-personnel. The Baltimore offense remains focused on 21-personnel, with fullback Patrick Ricard seeing between 26 and 44 percent snap rates in each of the team’s four contests, with the low value in that range coming in their Week 3 overtime loss to the Colts. They have primarily been allowed to continue a relatively conservative offensive approach designed to march the field on the backs of a defense allowing just 14.5 points per game (third), as evidenced by a low 6.8 IAY/PA value from quarterback Lamar Jackson (26th in the league).

Through the continuation of mounting injuries in Baltimore, the backfield now runs through veteran Gus Edwards, who is backed up by chance of pace and clear passing down back Justice Hill and veteran journeyman Melvin Gordon. In the team’s Week 4 game that they controlled throughout, Edwards saw a massive 69 percent snap rate and 69.2 percent of the team’s backfield opportunities. I would expect that stranglehold on backfield opportunities to continue forward in game environments that the Ravens can control, which this game sets up well for considering an opponent allowing a robust 4.7 yards per carry to opposing backs this season (fourth-worst). Finally, quarterback Lamar Jackson averaged 10.25 carries per game during the first four weeks of the season, with four rushing scores over his previous two games.

Whether through continued problems with the Lisfranc injury sustained in the 2022 season or through schematic design, Rashod Bateman has yet to play more than 69 percent of the team’s offensive snaps in a game this season (missed Week 3 with a hamstring injury). Combined with the absence of Odell Beckham Jr., that has left just rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers as the only near every-down pass-catcher for the Ravens to start the season as tight end Mark Andrews continues to see his playing time subsidized by the presence of Isaiah Likely (Andrews has had snap rates of 79 percent, 82 percent, and 69 percent). With Bateman likely back, that should leave him and Nelson Agholor to around 70 percent of the team’s offensive snaps, with Devin Duvernay and Laquon Treadwell on hand to soak up any snaps remaining, likely influenced the most by OBJ’s ability to return to game action. Pittsburgh has played man coverage at the league’s 12th highest rate thus far, and only OBJ (44.4 percent) and Flowers (25.9 percent) have a target rate higher than 18 percent against man coverage this season for Baltimore wide receivers. That sets up well for Andrews to see significant work here.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Both of these teams have had surprising performances to start the season, with the Bengals offense failing to meet expectations and the Cardinals being impressively competitive through four weeks.
• Joe Burrow’s injured calf has crippled his mobility and made the Bengals passing offense a shell of the unit we are used to seeing.
• Arizona has a very conservative approach on both sides of the ball that has helped them overcome some personnel deficiencies. 
• The Cardinals offense is one of only a couple of teams to rank top 10 in the NFL in DVOA via both the run and the pass. They also profile very similarly to the Titans offense, who just played their best game of the season against this Bengals defense.
• Cincinnati has lost their two road games this season by a combined total of 51 to 6.

How cincinatti Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals were the Cinderella darlings of the NFL two years ago and followed that magical Super Bowl run with a return to the AFC Championship game last season. Much of that success was thanks to the elite offensive performance of Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and company. This year, however, the Bengals rank dead last in the NFL in yards per play and their passing offense ranks 28th in DVOA and 30th in yards per pass attempt. The main issue appears to be the limited mobility of Joe Burrow due to his strained calf that he suffered in training camp. The Bengals are effectively forced to play out of the shotgun formation on every snap and defenses are able to pin their ears back and bring pressure to a stationary target. The added issue for the Bengals is their running game has always been decent but never overly efficient, so it’s not like they can just turn into a “ground and pound” team overnight and expect much success. Everyone is waiting for things to turn around but that may be tough until Burrow’s calf heals (if it does this season), and Tee Higgins is also dealing with a rib injury now that has held him out of practice this week.

The Bengals offense ranks fourth in the NFL in pass rate over expectation and plays at a moderate pace. This week, against a Cardinals defense that blitzes at the fourth lowest rate in the NFL and creates pressure at the fifth lowest rate in the league, the Bengals offense may actually have a chance to get back on track. Tee Higgins has a rib injury that has left his status in doubt and seems unlikely to play. This will leave Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon as the clear focal points of the offense. Two weeks ago against the Rams on Monday Night Football the Bengals started using Ja’Marr Chase more creatively and moved him around the formation. Over the last two games, Chase has 24 targets and it seems likely he will continue to be targeted at a very high rate, especially if Higgins does indeed miss this game. The Cardinals play zone coverage at the eighth highest rate in the league as their scheme is a conservative one predicated on shell coverages that prevent explosive plays and force their opponents to methodically move the ball down the field. The starting cornerbacks for Arizona rank 60th and 63rd in the league in PFF coverage grade out of 72 qualifying players, meaning that when the Cardinals do play man coverage, Chase is going to have a terrific matchup. Chase’s targets will likely be of the shorter variety against zone coverages with some calculated downfield shots on the rare times that Arizona shows man coverage. The Browns, Ravens, and Titans defenses gave the Bengals a ton of trouble thanks to all the pressure they were able to create. This matchup against Arizona provides a bit of a reprieve for Burrow and a chance for him to get back on track with Chase likely being asked to carry the offense.

On the ground, Joe Mixon should be busy against an inefficient Cardinals run defense that was just shredded by Christian McCaffrey and also gave up big games to Saquon Barkley and Tony Pollard. While Mixon’s inefficiency in the last couple of years has been notable, he has actually appeared to benefit somewhat from the Bengals going entirely to shotgun formations. In the past, the Bengals were often extremely predictable with their formations as they would run at a very high rate when Burrow was under center while passing at a very high rate when they were in shotgun formation. This forced change in approach has resulted in Cincinnati no longer “tipping their hand” like they used to and Mixon was one of the only bright spots in Week 4 as he managed 67 rushing yards on 14 carries against a stout Titans run defense. He also had relatively efficient outings against the Ravens and Browns tough fronts and it would not be surprising for Mixon to have his best game of the year in this spot against a weaker opponent where the Bengals will likely lean on him more, assuming Higgins is out or limited.

Mixon and Chase should be the clear focal points of the offense’s usage and their drives will likely be long drives that focus on moving the sticks rather than explosive, quick strikes. Arizona’s defense naturally works to prevent explosive plays and the Bengals are unlikely to force the issue with Burrow struggling physically and their receiving corps likely being short handed. This does provide the best chance for offensive success that the Bengals have had so far this season.

How Arizona Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• The Eagles offense continues to hum this season as they have scored at least 25 points in all four games, rank 3rd in the NFL in both rushing offense DVOA and yards per carry and have one of the most explosive and talented passing attacks in the league. 
• The Rams have been very efficient offensively this season and will get star wide receiver Cooper Kupp back in some capacity this week.
• Los Angeles will likely have little success running the ball this week and will likely be forced into a high volume of pass attempts due to matchup and game script.
• Philadelphia has huge advantages at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
• We will likely see a very high volume of pass attempts in this game due to how both defenses funnel their opponents.

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The Eagles offense showed the most aggressiveness we’d seen all season in their overtime victory over the Commanders, as Jalen Hurts and AJ Brown each had their best outings of the year. This offense projects to possibly eclipse last season’s dominant offensive performance as the addition of D’Andre Swift has added a dimension of explosiveness and versatility to the backfield and should open up new areas of their playbook as the season progresses. AJ Brown and Devonta Smith are a dynamic duo that generally dominates the receiving game, and their unique skill sets and versatility make them a nightmare for opposing defenses. Meanwhile, tight end Dallas Goedert has primarily been the forgotten man to start this season but will undoubtedly have his moments as the season progresses, as defenses focus on the elite perimeter threats and trying to slow down the freight train dual-threat running game that Swift and Hurts provide.

The Rams defense hasn’t been great this season. They had two relatively good performances against the Seahawks and Bengals, but in reflecting on those games, the offenses looked out of sync, with many of their struggles self-imposed. The 49ers had their way with the Rams, and the Colts had their issues early last week before turning on the offensive jets as the game went on. The Colts head coach is former Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, and he has been using a very similar approach with Anthony Richardson to the offense he used in Philadelphia with Jalen Hurts. It seems logical that the Eagles will study what the Colts did during their 23-point second half in Week 4 and should be able to implement many of the same concepts that the Rams defense was susceptible against. Both the Colts and Eagles are nearly unstoppable when running plays with multiple options based on reading the defense and leveraging their quarterbacks’ talents to keep defenses on their heels.

The Eagles played at one of the fastest paces in the league last year but started this season playing relatively slowly. They’ve picked it up a bit the last couple of weeks, but I suspect they may be especially aggressive this week after their close call last week against the Commanders. The Rams offense has been excellent this year, and their weakness is their offensive line, so the Eagles approach will likely be to come out with guns blazing to try to take control of the game and let their defense tee off on Matthew Stafford. This does not necessarily mean the Eagles will throw an overwhelming amount, however, because their rushing offense is so dynamic and dominant that they can also break off big chunks in that way. The Rams defense had not faced a dual-threat quarterback before last week, as they were able to hang tough with Geno Smith, Brock Purdy, and the ghost of Joe Burrow. Anthony Richardson and the Colts figured things out against the Rams last week, and although it was too little, too late in that instance, it does pave the way for the Eagles to put up a big score, given the fact that they have a very similar scheme with upgraded talent across the board.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

By mike johnson >>

• Most of this game’s outlook will depend on the offensive mindset that the Jets start with. 
• New York has faced an extremely difficult schedule of defenses to start the year but gets a reprieve against a historically bad defense.
• The Broncos offense operates with a very broad distribution of touches and has primarily been reactionary in its approaches to opponents so far this season. 
• Denver is hoping to get some key defenders back this week, but the Broncos are unlikely to completely turn this thing around in one week.
• Common opponents between the Jets and Bears could potentially provide a glimmer of optimism for Zach Wilson and the Jets.

HOW NEW YORK WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Jets offense has finally shown some signs of life in its last five quarters dating back to the end of the Patriots game in Week 3. Zach Wilson had one of the best games of his career in a failed comeback attempt on national TV against Patrick Mahomes last week. This week, he gets to face a historically bad defense that just made Justin Fields and the Bears look like a high-octane offense. Playing the transitive property game with NFL results can be dangerous, as teams, players, and schemes match up differently each week. However, there are some common threads we can tie together to try to wrap our heads around things here. The Bears played the Chiefs in Week 3, followed by the Broncos in Week 4. Chicago’s offense was atrocious against the Chiefs, scoring only three points prior to a late garbage-time touchdown. They followed that up by scoring 28 points in the first three quarters against the Broncos. Then you look at the Jets, whose offense looked solid against Kansas City and now travels to Denver to face that giving defense. There is certainly a lot of room for optimism here for the J-E-T-S.

Head coach Robert Saleh made waves this week by proclaiming there will no longer be any restrictions on running back Breece Hall’s usage. This is especially notable due to the poor performance of Dalvin Cook to start the year and the elite matchup the Broncos provide. Denver’s defense ranks in the bottom five of the league in most major categories against both the run and the pass, allowing teams to attack in any way they see fit. Hall and the Jets offense have not had a great start to the season, but it has to be noted that New York has faced a murderer’s row of defenses with the Bills, Cowboys, Patriots, and Chiefs. The Broncos defense can act as a desert oasis for a team thirsting for some offensive success and looking to build on the promise of the Kansas City game. 

The passing game is also set up for success after a tough stretch to start the year. The four defenses the Jets have faced so far rank 1st, 3rd, 11th, and 16th in the NFL in QB pressure rate while the Broncos rank dead last. Star cornerback Patrick Surtain II ranks 43rd out of 72 qualifying CB’s in PFF coverage grade, as he has fallen off a bit with the talent around him providing less support. It’s also not as easy to cover someone when there is no pressure on the quarterback. Allen Lazard made some big plays last week and Garrett Wilson was targeted 14 times on 39 Zach Wilson pass attempts – good for a 36% target share. 

Some other backs and receivers will be involved, as will the Jets tight ends, but Hall and Garrett Wilson will likely be the centerpieces of this offensive attack and draw the most appealing matchups they’ve seen all year. If you are into narratives, this is also Hall’s return to the scene of the crime where he tore his ACL last season. Usually the Jets take a very conservative approach, but if they want to try to salvage their season, they need to build the confidence of Zach Wilson and give themselves a chance to have a competitive offense. While they may be able to play conservatively and win this game by relying on their elite defense, their long-term goals would be well-served if they approach this game with an aggressive mindset and prove to themselves and their opponents that they are capable of having a breakout offensive performance. If not now, then when?

How DENVER Will Try To Win ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• Hard to draw up a more exciting on-paper matchup than this one between the first- and third-ranked teams in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE).
• Both teams enter this game off “close calls” against lower-tier competition in Week 5. Kansas City is still in control of its division, while Minnesota is trying to avoid being left in the dust.
• Minnesota’s defense has had an up-and-down season, but it has struggled against teams with higher-end quarterbacks – which Patrick Mahomes probably qualifies as.
• Kansas City’s defense has only surrendered 52 points through four games (13 points per game) and has yet to allow an opposing offense to score 20 points in a game.
• Explosive players on both sides of this game possess the ability to take the lid off this one at any point.

How KANSAS CITY Will Try To Win ::

Despite leading the NFL in PROE again this season, the Chiefs offense seems to be evolving somewhat, particularly in its usage of their skill players. First of all, they had FIVE different wide receivers play at least 24% of the snaps in Sunday night’s win over the Jets, with none of them playing over 61% of the snaps. Meanwhile, tight ends Travis Kelce and Noah Gray combined for a 40% target share. Finally, the Chiefs had 65 “opportunities” (carries plus targets) available in that game and their running backs accounted for 31 of them – roughly half. Looking back at their previous game against the Bears you can see a similar usage pattern, with running backs accounting for 17 of the team’s 34 (50%) “opportunities” prior to taking a 21-point lead. These numbers are particularly interesting when you look at their Week 2 game against the Jaguars. In that game, the running backs accounted for only five of the 27 (18.5%) “opportunities” in the first half and only 11 of 29 (39%) in the second half prior to their final, game-killing drive when they were trying to run out the clock. 

The reason I bring up all of those statistics is because when you put them together you can see where the confidence of Andy Reid and the coaching staff lies. By affording so many different receivers significant snaps but not allowing any to have a full-time role you can tell they view them very interchangeably. Taking that a step further, the wide receivers have a very low cumulative share of the team’s usage – which shows that their “interchangeable” group is not one that they think is playing at a very high level. You can also see how after a rough start to the season offensively, the Chiefs made it a priority to get their backfield more involved as evidenced by the increase in the running backs’ usage numbers. Kelce is obviously the centerpiece of this offense, but Isiah Pacheco’s role has grown into the clear second option as a skill player behind Kelce and the team is using its backs enough that Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are also involved on some level every week.

Those are all interesting tidbits to consider for this week when the Chiefs face a Vikings defense surrendering the most wide receiver fantasy points per game in the NFL through the season’s first four weeks. On the surface, that statistic may make you think the Chiefs will attack their opponent’s perceived weakness and make it a priority to get their wide receivers more involved. Digging deeper, however, you can see that the Vikings have played three games against teams with elite wide receiver duos in the Bucs (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin), Eagles (AJ Brown and Devonta Smith), and Chargers (Keenan Allen and Mike Williams). Considering the lack of trust they have been showing in their wide receivers and the huge talent gap between theirs and the units that have diced up the Vikings, it is easy to see how this matchup could be more difficult for their offense than it appears on the surface. Their opponent’s “path of least resistance” lines up with the personnel in their offense that is the least efficient and least preferred at the moment.  

There are some very positive data points for the Chiefs as well, however. The Vikings lead the NFL in blitz rate by a wide margin, yet are near the bottom of the league in QB-pressure rate. Patrick Mahomes has many strengths, but avoiding sacks is one of the things he is truly different from everyone else in. Due to the combination of Mahomes’ ability to avoid sacks and the horrible efficiency of the Vikings in creating pressure, the Chiefs should be able to avoid making negative plays and have opportunities for some explosive ones. A team that sends pressure but can’t get home is especially vulnerable against an elite quarterback like Mahomes. Keep in mind that the Vikings defense held the Bucs and Panthers (i.e. – Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young) to 16.5 points per game while surrendering 31 points per game to the Eagles and Chargers (i.e. – Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert). 

There are very clearly some red flags about how the Chiefs could struggle this week, yet there are also some very clear exciting data points that point to a smash spot. I don’t have the data myself, but I would venture to guess if over the last five years you blindly bet on the Chiefs scoring a lot of points against teams who blitz a lot but don’t get sacks you would have done very well. The receivers for the Chiefs have struggled this season and it will be hard to pick out which one, if any, will have a solid game, but it stands to reason that the Vikings will likely be undermanned in the secondary often and Mahomes’ escapability will give his mediocre receivers the time and space needed to break open. Putting it all together, it seems likely that the Chiefs continue their recent usage patterns but that their wide receiver corps combines for a much more productive and efficient game than what it’s shown to date.

How minnesota Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday Night Football is an exciting matchup between two of the league’s best teams as the Cowboys visit the 49ers. The game has a 45 total with the 49ers favored by 3.5 (which means that on a neutral field, Vegas is saying these teams are evenly matched). Both teams boast strong offenses: San Francisco has scored at least 30 points in every game so far this season, while the Cowboys have done so in three of four games (with a weird upset by the Cardinals). Both teams also have elite defenses: the 49ers have allowed an average of 14.5 points per game while the Cowboys have allowed just 10.25 points per game (to be fair, the Cowboys have also faced some bottom of the barrel offenses). From a real-life perspective, this is a really interesting game but from a DFS perspective, we have a matchup that could go a bunch of different ways.

San Francisco

On the 49ers side, with Elijah Mitchell already ruled out, Christian McCaffrey is in one of the league’s best roles (perhaps THE best role). He should be on the field for at least 80% of the snaps and handle essentially all of the rushing work, with backup Jordan Mason mixing in for a breather here and there. CMC has at least 18 carries and at least three targets in every game this year, and at least 22.9 DraftKings points. He’s scored SEVEN touchdowns already. He’s averaging a whopping 5.7 yards per carry because A) he’s good and B) the 49ers run blocking is elite. What else is there to say? The dude is elite, he’s the best play in this Showdown, and you just have to decide how to handle it when there’s such a glaringly obvious play on the board. He’s even very reasonably priced at just $11,800! He’ll be massively owned so you can either lock him and just play the best play, you could avoid him entirely and think “football is weird, who knows,” or you could just try to match the field and figure ways to differentiate elsewhere. There’s no wrong choice here. Mason’s role is likely to be too small to be meaningful unless he either lucks into a touchdown or if CMC should get hurt (he’s also playable in 5-1 49ers onslaughts as he could get more work late if the game is a blowout). 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

The 49ers passing game is relatively low volume but high efficiency. Brock Purdy has averaged just 28 pass attempts per game but we’ve already seen two 20+ point performances from Deebo Samuel and two more from Brandon Aiyuk. This offense gets there on elite efficiency and elite YAC from their primary pass catchers which makes them tricky to figure out for DFS purposes. Aiyuk has actually looked better than Deebo to start the year, and it’s at least a possibility that we’re seeing something of a changing of the guard here, but his price has also crept up slightly above Deebo’s. Call me a coward here but it’s hard to choose between them. They’re both good options and I have a slight preference for Aiyuk, but that’s also because I think the “brand name” of Deebo as well as his cheaper price is going to cause ownership to lean his way. The WR3 role will be split between some combination of Jauan Jennings, Ronnie Bell, and perhaps Ray-Ray McCloud. In this offense, with limited volume that is so focused on the primary guys, none of them are really any more than punt options with Jennings being the (slightly) stronger option. Tight end is George Kittle but Kittle spends so much of his time blocking that he has a hard time getting highly involved in the passing game when the rest of the offense is healthy. He still has a high ceiling but we’re less likely to see it, as long as all of CMC, Deebo, and Aiyuk are available. Kittle is a tournament-only play to me and one that I don’t have a tremendously high degree of confidence in. There’s nothing to say “Kittle is really likely to have a big game here” beyond that he’s just really good, and so I’m just going to try to match the field on ownership and move on. You can also include backup tight ends Charlie Woerner, Ross Dwelley, and fullback Kyle Juszczyk in your tournament pools but again, there isn’t much volume to go around once you get past the first four guys. I’d have a “max 1” rule of all 49ers pass catchers outside of the big four.

Dallas

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 5 closes out with the Packers visiting the Raiders for a 45.5 total game with the Raiders favored by 2. We have some key injury news here as both Aaron Jones and Davante Adams are questionable. I think Jones is a near lock to play (he played through the same Q tag last week), while Davante only got in a single limited practice this week. As a long-time vet, he doesn’t necessarily need a lot of practice, and I’d bet it’s more likely he plays than misses, but I would say there is a legitimate chance he’s out. I’m writing this as if he’s in, and if we get news in time, as always, I’ll update the article (if we don’t get news until inactives come out, make sure you’re in our Discord!). I’m a bit surprised to see the Raiders favored here as they have played abysmally to a 1-3 record with a -39 point differential (eek), while the Packers are 2-2 with a positive four point differential. The Raiders have had a slightly tougher schedule but everything here, to me, points to the Packers being a better team. We’ll see, though.

Las Vegas

The Raiders backfield belongs to Josh Jacobs. He has at least 17 carries in each game that didn’t have Las Vegas getting blown out, and his passing game role has also been significant this season with 3, 6, 5, and 11 (!) targets. He’s averaging a pathetic 2.7 yards per carry, but the role is huge and he gets valuable passing game and goal line work. If you believe the Vegas line and think the Raiders win (or at least keep it competitive throughout), he’s a very strong play. Behind Jacobs we’ll see smidges of Ameer Abdullah and Zamir White, leaving both as thin punt options. Abdullah gets a bit of passing game work while White is the real backup if you want to place bets on Jacobs getting hurt. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

The passing game is Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and whoever. Seriously. The Raiders have the most condensed volume in the NFL, with Jacobs, Adams, and Meyers combining for something ridiculous like 90% of the opportunities (this number is prior to Week 4, I’m sure it shifted a bit with last week’s game but this is still an offense with concentration that we just don’t see in the real live NFL, only in Madden). With Jimmy Garoppolo back, we can expect more competent quarterback play and likely the same kind of concentration. Both Adams and Meyers are very solid bets for double digit targets and the Packers might be missing their top cornerback as Jaire Alexander is questionable. I don’t think matchup really matters THAT much for a guy like Davante, but it would be yet another mark in his favor. For much of last season it would have been highly profitable to have a rule of at least 1 of Davante and Jacobs on every roster, and this year we can add Meyers to that mix (I think that rule is very much in play in this Showdown). Both are excellent options, as they will be in any Raiders game. Davante is, obviously, awesome, but as the most expensive play in this Showdown, we shouldn’t forget about Meyers down there in that weird salary zone that tends to leave guys underowned. Personally, I want to have about equal exposure to both, which will probably leave me roughly equal weight with the field on Davante but well above the field on Meyers. Everyone else on this offense – Hunter Renfrow, Tre Tucker, DeAndre Carter, and tight ends Austin Hooper and Michael Mayer, are just dart throws. 

Green Bay