Week 14 Matchups

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00:00 :: Vikings // Buccaneers
10:57 :: Cardinals // Giants
17:56 :: Chiefs // Dolphins
27:59 :: Titans // Jaguars
38:17 :: Packers // Lions
48:11 :: Cowboys // Bengals
56:29 :: Texans // Bears
66:39 :: Broncos // Panthers
74:25 :: Jets // Hawks
83:33 :: Colts // Raiders
91:27 :: WFT // 49ers
97:52 :: Saints // Eagles
103:36 :: Falcons // Chargers


Kickoff Thursday, Dec 10th 8:20pm Eastern

Patriots (
19.25) at

Rams (
24.25)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Patriots Run D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
7th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
13th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
10th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass
Rams Run D
20th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
23rd DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
22nd DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
29th DVOA/28th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
Week 14 is here! It feels weird that we’re coming down to the last few weeks of the season already (but that’s just 2020 me, enjoying having DFS to get my mind off the rest of the hell that this year has been). On Thursday we have the Patriots visiting the Rams in a low-total 44.5 point game with the Rams favored by 5.5 points. The Rams are the significantly better team here. Bill Bellichick outcoached noted moron Anthony Lynn last week, but he’s going to have a tougher time . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 1:00pm Eastern

Vikings (
22.75) at

Bucs (
29.75)

Over/Under 52.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Vikings Run D
12th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
29th DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
10th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
15th DVOA/6th Yards per pass
Buccaneers Run D
11th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
27th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
15th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
21st DVOA/17th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

We know the Vikings like to run the ball, but this is a game in which we should expect them to lean more pass-heavy than normalThe Bucs may balance toward the run in this one, but they should still get off their typical range of pass attemptsVegas is telling the story of a potential blowout (or at least a game the Bucs somewhat easily control), but the track records of these two teams this year suggest this game is likeliest to remain relatively competitive throughoutBoth of these teams have some pieces that can . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 1:00pm Eastern

Cards (
25.25) at

Giants (
22.25)

Over/Under 47.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Cardinals Run D
31st DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
31st DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
31st DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
30th DVOA/30th Yards per pass
Giants Run D
29th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
8th DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
19th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
25th DVOA/29th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

The Giants' ability to contain Kyler Murray and slow DeAndre Hopkins is the key matchup for the overall offensive viability from this gameBoth teams are largely set up well to deny the opposition their preferred means of attackingNot a ton to love here

How Arizona Will Try To Win ::

As teams have started to become privy to the limited bi-dimensionality of this Cardinals offense, their weekly scoring ceiling has taken a substantial hit. Over the last three weeks, the Cardinals have scored an average of 22 points per game, far below their season . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 1:00pm Eastern

Chiefs (
29.25) at

Dolphins (
22.25)

Over/Under 51.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Chiefs Run D
27th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
3rd DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
5th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards per pass
Dolphins Run D
21st DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
11th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
18th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
6th DVOA/19th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

While this matchup against the Dolphins has been an issue for many teams, it shouldn't be one for the ChiefsThe Chiefs may attack slightly differently in this one than the field will expectThe Dolphins will look to slow down this game and keep things close for as long as possibleThere are certainly some interesting DFS angles in this one

How Kansas City Will Try To Win ::

Miami’s defense ranks 11th in overall DVOA, while ranking sixth vs the pass and 24th vs the run. Only eight teams have pressured the quarterback at . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 1:00pm Eastern

Titans (
30.25) at

Jaguars (
22.75)

Over/Under 53.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Titans Run D
10th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
26th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
24th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
13th DVOA/18th Yards per pass
Jaguars Run D
6th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
18th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
12th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
24th DVOA/16th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Both defenses are bad // the Titans' offense is good // the Jags have been playing games really close latelyThe Titans have played almost all of their wins close as wellThere are clear paths to the Titans running away with this one, but this game is likeliest to be played a bit closer than most will anticipate or expectNothing stands out as a "must play," but there are certainly some players worth keeping in mind from this one

How Tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Tennessee at Jacksonville is one of the more defense-light games we . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 1:00pm Eastern

Packers (
32.75) at

Lions (
23.25)

Over/Under 56.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Packers Run D
26th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
4th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
27th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
9th DVOA/9th Yards per pass
Lions Run D
3rd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
17th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
16th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
5th DVOA/10th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Green Bay sets up well to control this game with their slowed-down, ball-control styleThe Lions showed stronger aggressive tendencies last week in their first game without PatriciaThe Packers should be able to play from in front, while the Lions may eventually have to tilt more heavily toward the passThere are certainly some pieces from this game to keep in mind for tighter builds this week

How Green Bay Will Try To Win ::

The Packers play a pretty simple, straightforward brand of football. They play at the slowest pace in the NFL. They . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 1:00pm Eastern

Cowboys (
23.5) at

Bengals (
20.5)

Over/Under 44.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Cowboys Run D
9th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
22nd DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
6th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
14th DVOA/26th Yards per pass
Bengals Run D
28th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
15th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
21st DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
11th DVOA/14th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

The low total on this game is likely to lead to minimal ownership, but there is one specific under-the-radar place to look for GPP upside herePerceived ineptitude out of both offenses; the true story here is both offenses have been largely unable to attack in their preferred manner, which is likely to continue for the Bengals but should not be the case for the CowboysLikely to see a tangible bump to offensive plays run from scrimmage for the Cowboys

How Dallas Will Try To Win ::

The Cowboys have an above average 63 . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 1:00pm Eastern

Texans (
23.75) at

Bears (
22.75)

Over/Under 46.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Texans Run D
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
10th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
23rd DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
23rd DVOA/23rd Yards per pass
Bears Run D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
30th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
17th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
12th DVOA/5th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Keep an eye on injury news out of Houston, as we could see some value open up amongst their pass-catchers hereThe Bears are likely to approach this game in a similar fashion to their Week 13 game against the Lions, with a slow pace of play and increased rush ratesPieces from this game are likely to go either over-owned or deployed incorrectly from a DFS theory perspectiveAlthough the Bears are likely to control the game overall, it is the Texans whose success will dictate the overall success or failure of the players . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 1:00pm Eastern

Broncos (
21) at

Panthers (
25)

Over/Under 46.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Broncos Run D
30th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
25th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
26th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
32nd DVOA/32nd Yards per pass
Panthers Run D
32nd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
14th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
20th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
18th DVOA/25th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

The numbers point to Carolina controlling this game throughout, with a higher than normal chance at limiting the opposition based on how the Broncos’ offense is builtExpect a slow, grind-it-out game as Panthers attempt to control the field position and time of possession battlesNot much to love from a fantasy perspective (outside of Christian McCaffrey potentially making his return to the lineup)

How Denver Will Try To Win ::

Denver has shown little to no ability to alter their game plan based on the opponent, which is likely to make things a little . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 4:05pm Eastern

Jets (
16.5) at

Hawks (
32.5)

Over/Under 49.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jets Run D
14th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
3rd DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
8th DVOA/12th Yards per pass
Seahawks Run D
23rd DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
32nd DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
25th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
31st DVOA/31st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Both of these offenses have been tilting toward the run (Seattle compared to where they were early in the year; New York compared to where any sane team would be in the situations in which they find themselves), but don't be surprised if that changes a bit hereMore than likely, Seattle runs away with this game, but there is an interesting Tributary scenarioNot a ton to love here, in what is expected to be a blowout; but this game isn't dead on arrival

How Seattle Will Try To Win ::

One of the . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 4:05pm Eastern

Colts (
27.25) at

Raiders (
24.75)

Over/Under 52.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Colts Run D
24th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
24th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
14th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
28th DVOA/24th Yards per pass
Raiders Run D
17th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
9th DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
8th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
17th DVOA/15th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Vegas expects a high scoring, close game here (51.5 game total with a spread of only three points), but with Josh Jacobs looking unlikely, I have a hard time seeing how the Raiders consistently move the ballVolume should be present for the Colts as a whole, but their “spread the wealth” offense is not conducive to fantasy productionNot much to love from a fantasy perspective with the Colts likely to control the flow and tempo of the game

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Indy went from a projected top five rushing offense . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 4:25pm Eastern

WFT (
20.25) at

49ers (
23.25)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Commanders Run D
16th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
32nd DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
1st DVOA/1st Yards per pass
49ers Run D
15th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
16th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
4th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
27th DVOA/27th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Two offenses that rely on yards after the catch for splash play potential against two defenses designed to limit splash playsOpportunity for a ceiling to emerge, but it comes with low floors and an increasing amount of guesswork; plays from this game are best reserved for MME playHighest cost-considered floor play from this game (JD McKissic) comes with a low ceiling

How Washington Will Try To Win ::

Washington has continued to play with pace with Alex Smith at quarterback but has shifted to a quick-hitting passing attack designed to get the ball . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 4:25pm Eastern

Saints (
25) at

Eagles (
17)

Over/Under 42.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Saints Run D
25th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
6th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
11th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
7th DVOA/11th Yards per pass
Eagles Run D
19th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
13th DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
28th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
20th DVOA/22nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Saints are wanting to take a lead and control the game from in front, from which point they can wait for opponents to make mistakes as they very deliberately pull awayThe Eagles would like to be able to do the same thing. (LOL.)The Saints should control this game from top to bottom, even if the score looks close for a whileAre you in the mood to bet on miracles?

How New Orleans Will Try To Win ::

Both of these teams have been rock-solid on defense this year (New Orleans more so . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 4:25pm Eastern

Falcons (
24) at

Chargers (
25)

Over/Under 49.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Falcons Run D
8th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
28th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
29th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
16th DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Chargers Run D
22nd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
20th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
30th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
22nd DVOA/8th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Falcons have not been as good on offense under Dirk Koetter as they should theoretically be with these weaponsThe Chargers match up a bit better with Atlanta than Atlanta matches up with the ChargersThis game doesn't project as a shootout, but these teams are evenly-matched enough that it could happenNot a ton to "love" here, but certainly some pieces to "like"

How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::

Matt Ryan. Julio Jones. Calvin Ridley. Hayden Hurst. It all sounds so good! But let’s dig a layer below the surface to see . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 8:20pm Eastern

Steelers (
23.25) at

Bills (
25.25)

Over/Under 48.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Steelers Run D
13th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
5th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
7th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per pass
Bills Run D
18th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
12th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
9th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
As someone who has heavily utilized the Bills in DFS the last couple of seasons, Sunday night’s game is really exciting to me, with the Steelers visiting Buffalo for a 48 total game with the Bills favored by two. We have a real strength on strength matchup here with Buffalo’s passing offense against the elite Pittsburgh secondary, and it will be a good test of just how much Josh Allen has progressed as a passer.
I wrote up the Bills for their matchup with San Francisco last week and noted that Zack Moss was . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Dec 14th 8:15pm Eastern

Ravens (
24.25) at

Browns (
21.25)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Ravens Run D
7th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
21st DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
26th DVOA/13th Yards per pass
Browns Run D
5th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
1st DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
2nd DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
4th DVOA/4th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
Week 14 finishes up with a rematch of a Week 1 game that Baltimore won 38-6. Since then, Cleveland has been playing very well, while Baltimore has been playing...decently, I guess, largely driven by their defense while their offense has somewhat floundered. Vegas has this as a 45.5 total game with the Ravens favored by three. 
On the Baltimore side, we know what they want to do: they want to run, and limit Lamar Jackson’s passing volume. Lamar is averaging 26.6 pass attempts on the season and has only exceeded 30 . . .

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