Week 14 Matchups

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00:00 :: Vikings // Buccaneers
10:57 :: Cardinals // Giants
17:56 :: Chiefs // Dolphins
27:59 :: Titans // Jaguars
38:17 :: Packers // Lions
48:11 :: Cowboys // Bengals
56:29 :: Texans // Bears
66:39 :: Broncos // Panthers
74:25 :: Jets // Hawks
83:33 :: Colts // Raiders
91:27 :: WFT // 49ers
97:52 :: Saints // Eagles
103:36 :: Falcons // Chargers


Kickoff Thursday, Dec 10th 8:20pm Eastern

Patriots (
19.25) at

Rams (
24.25)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
Week 14 is here! It feels weird that we’re coming down to the last few weeks of the season already (but that’s just 2020 me, enjoying having DFS to get my mind off the rest of the hell that this year has been). On Thursday we have the Patriots visiting the Rams in a low-total 44.5 point game with the Rams favored by 5.5 points. The Rams are the significantly better team here. Bill Bellichick outcoached noted moron Anthony Lynn last week, but he’s going to have a tougher time . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 1:00pm Eastern

Vikings (
22.75) at

Bucs (
29.75)

Over/Under 52.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

We know the Vikings like to run the ball, but this is a game in which we should expect them to lean more pass-heavy than normalThe Bucs may balance toward the run in this one, but they should still get off their typical range of pass attemptsVegas is telling the story of a potential blowout (or at least a game the Bucs somewhat easily control), but the track records of these two teams this year suggest this game is likeliest to remain relatively competitive throughoutBoth of these teams have some pieces that can . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 1:00pm Eastern

Cards (
25.25) at

Giants (
22.25)

Over/Under 47.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

The Giants' ability to contain Kyler Murray and slow DeAndre Hopkins is the key matchup for the overall offensive viability from this gameBoth teams are largely set up well to deny the opposition their preferred means of attackingNot a ton to love here

How Arizona Will Try To Win ::

As teams have started to become privy to the limited bi-dimensionality of this Cardinals offense, their weekly scoring ceiling has taken a substantial hit. Over the last three weeks, the Cardinals have scored an average of 22 points per game, far below their season . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 1:00pm Eastern

Chiefs (
29.25) at

Dolphins (
22.25)

Over/Under 51.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

While this matchup against the Dolphins has been an issue for many teams, it shouldn't be one for the ChiefsThe Chiefs may attack slightly differently in this one than the field will expectThe Dolphins will look to slow down this game and keep things close for as long as possibleThere are certainly some interesting DFS angles in this one

How Kansas City Will Try To Win ::

Miami’s defense ranks 11th in overall DVOA, while ranking sixth vs the pass and 24th vs the run. Only eight teams have pressured the quarterback at . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 1:00pm Eastern

Titans (
30.25) at

Jaguars (
22.75)

Over/Under 53.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Both defenses are bad // the Titans' offense is good // the Jags have been playing games really close latelyThe Titans have played almost all of their wins close as wellThere are clear paths to the Titans running away with this one, but this game is likeliest to be played a bit closer than most will anticipate or expectNothing stands out as a "must play," but there are certainly some players worth keeping in mind from this one

How Tennessee Will Try To Win ::

Tennessee at Jacksonville is one of the more defense-light games we . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 1:00pm Eastern

Packers (
32.75) at

Lions (
23.25)

Over/Under 56.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Green Bay sets up well to control this game with their slowed-down, ball-control styleThe Lions showed stronger aggressive tendencies last week in their first game without PatriciaThe Packers should be able to play from in front, while the Lions may eventually have to tilt more heavily toward the passThere are certainly some pieces from this game to keep in mind for tighter builds this week

How Green Bay Will Try To Win ::

The Packers play a pretty simple, straightforward brand of football. They play at the slowest pace in the NFL. They . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 1:00pm Eastern

Cowboys (
23.5) at

Bengals (
20.5)

Over/Under 44.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

The low total on this game is likely to lead to minimal ownership, but there is one specific under-the-radar place to look for GPP upside herePerceived ineptitude out of both offenses; the true story here is both offenses have been largely unable to attack in their preferred manner, which is likely to continue for the Bengals but should not be the case for the CowboysLikely to see a tangible bump to offensive plays run from scrimmage for the Cowboys

How Dallas Will Try To Win ::

The Cowboys have an above average 63 . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 1:00pm Eastern

Texans (
23.75) at

Bears (
22.75)

Over/Under 46.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Keep an eye on injury news out of Houston, as we could see some value open up amongst their pass-catchers hereThe Bears are likely to approach this game in a similar fashion to their Week 13 game against the Lions, with a slow pace of play and increased rush ratesPieces from this game are likely to go either over-owned or deployed incorrectly from a DFS theory perspectiveAlthough the Bears are likely to control the game overall, it is the Texans whose success will dictate the overall success or failure of the players . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 1:00pm Eastern

Broncos (
21) at

Panthers (
25)

Over/Under 46.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

The numbers point to Carolina controlling this game throughout, with a higher than normal chance at limiting the opposition based on how the Broncos’ offense is builtExpect a slow, grind-it-out game as Panthers attempt to control the field position and time of possession battlesNot much to love from a fantasy perspective (outside of Christian McCaffrey potentially making his return to the lineup)

How Denver Will Try To Win ::

Denver has shown little to no ability to alter their game plan based on the opponent, which is likely to make things a little . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 4:05pm Eastern

Jets (
16.5) at

Hawks (
32.5)

Over/Under 49.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

Both of these offenses have been tilting toward the run (Seattle compared to where they were early in the year; New York compared to where any sane team would be in the situations in which they find themselves), but don't be surprised if that changes a bit hereMore than likely, Seattle runs away with this game, but there is an interesting Tributary scenarioNot a ton to love here, in what is expected to be a blowout; but this game isn't dead on arrival

How Seattle Will Try To Win ::

One of the . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 4:05pm Eastern

Colts (
27.25) at

Raiders (
24.75)

Over/Under 52.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Vegas expects a high scoring, close game here (51.5 game total with a spread of only three points), but with Josh Jacobs looking unlikely, I have a hard time seeing how the Raiders consistently move the ballVolume should be present for the Colts as a whole, but their “spread the wealth” offense is not conducive to fantasy productionNot much to love from a fantasy perspective with the Colts likely to control the flow and tempo of the game

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Indy went from a projected top five rushing offense . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 4:25pm Eastern

WFT (
20.25) at

49ers (
23.25)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>

Two offenses that rely on yards after the catch for splash play potential against two defenses designed to limit splash playsOpportunity for a ceiling to emerge, but it comes with low floors and an increasing amount of guesswork; plays from this game are best reserved for MME playHighest cost-considered floor play from this game (JD McKissic) comes with a low ceiling

How Washington Will Try To Win ::

Washington has continued to play with pace with Alex Smith at quarterback but has shifted to a quick-hitting passing attack designed to get the ball . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 4:25pm Eastern

Saints (
25) at

Eagles (
17)

Over/Under 42.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Saints are wanting to take a lead and control the game from in front, from which point they can wait for opponents to make mistakes as they very deliberately pull awayThe Eagles would like to be able to do the same thing. (LOL.)The Saints should control this game from top to bottom, even if the score looks close for a whileAre you in the mood to bet on miracles?

How New Orleans Will Try To Win ::

Both of these teams have been rock-solid on defense this year (New Orleans more so . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 4:25pm Eastern

Falcons (
24) at

Chargers (
25)

Over/Under 49.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By JM >>

The Falcons have not been as good on offense under Dirk Koetter as they should theoretically be with these weaponsThe Chargers match up a bit better with Atlanta than Atlanta matches up with the ChargersThis game doesn't project as a shootout, but these teams are evenly-matched enough that it could happenNot a ton to "love" here, but certainly some pieces to "like"

How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::

Matt Ryan. Julio Jones. Calvin Ridley. Hayden Hurst. It all sounds so good! But let’s dig a layer below the surface to see . . .

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Kickoff Sunday, Dec 13th 8:20pm Eastern

Steelers (
23.25) at

Bills (
25.25)

Over/Under 48.5

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Notes

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
As someone who has heavily utilized the Bills in DFS the last couple of seasons, Sunday night’s game is really exciting to me, with the Steelers visiting Buffalo for a 48 total game with the Bills favored by two. We have a real strength on strength matchup here with Buffalo’s passing offense against the elite Pittsburgh secondary, and it will be a good test of just how much Josh Allen has progressed as a passer.
I wrote up the Bills for their matchup with San Francisco last week and noted that Zack Moss was . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Dec 14th 8:15pm Eastern

Ravens (
24.25) at

Browns (
21.25)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT ::
Week 14 finishes up with a rematch of a Week 1 game that Baltimore won 38-6. Since then, Cleveland has been playing very well, while Baltimore has been playing...decently, I guess, largely driven by their defense while their offense has somewhat floundered. Vegas has this as a 45.5 total game with the Ravens favored by three. 
On the Baltimore side, we know what they want to do: they want to run, and limit Lamar Jackson’s passing volume. Lamar is averaging 26.6 pass attempts on the season and has only exceeded 30 . . .

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