Week 14 Matchups

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(Jump to Games)

OWS Fam :: Between the craziness of the holidays, the craziness of my wife and me walking through our first pregnancy, and the 16-game slates taking over for the remainder of the season, we are going to put the Roster Reviews // Recaps on hold the rest of the way, as this will allow me to free up a couple hours on Sunday each week to get a head start on the week ahead. Onward!


This is shaping up as an attractive Main Slate, with plenty of different, viable ways to go among salary-savers, and with plenty of high-priced guys to like as well. Even the mid-range offers plenty to play around with, creating a number of paths to consider this week in tourneys, and opening the door for unique builds to still carry plenty of floor and ceiling. With four weeks left in the season, we are in the sweet spot of A) lots of good teams (and even some bad teams) still carrying a clear shot at a playoff spot, and B) a number of out-of-contention teams now near enough to the end of the season that the focus has shifted to closing out strong.

There are very few games on this slate that can be completely overlooked, with some strong pieces to consider across the board. Dig in; keep strong notes; organize your thoughts heading into the weekend; and put together some high-floor/high-ceiling rosters that will give you a shot at the top of the leaderboards!

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Kickoff Thursday, Dec 6th 8:20pm Eastern

Jaguars (
16) at

Titans (
21.5)

Over/Under 37.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jaguars Run D
6th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
18th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
12th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
24th DVOA/16th Yards per pass
Titans Run D
10th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
26th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
24th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
13th DVOA/18th Yards per pass

JAGUARS // TITANS OVERVIEW

For fans of old-school ball, this will be an exciting game between a Jags team playing for pride and a Titans team fighting to stay in the playoff hunt. These teams each rank bottom five in points per game on offense. These teams each rank top six in fewest points allowed per game on defense.

Both of these offenses go three-and-out at an above-average rate, and both teams rank bottom eight in drive success rate. With both teams also leaning run-heavy in their play-calling and emphasizing mistake-free football on offense, big plays and back-and-forth scoring are unlikely to be featured.

From a Showdown perspective, there are a few plays that stand out above the rest in this game, but otherwise things are pretty muddled. This is the type of game in which it makes sense to spread out your play across multiple rosters — betting on various scenarios for how this game could play out. When bad offenses take on good defenses, the likeliest path to fantasy production can sometimes be a crazy play or a long touchdown.

The early-week Over/Under in this game has been set at only 37.5, with the Titans installed as four-point favorites. Get your popcorn ready.

JAGUARS RUN OFFENSE

As one of the most opponent-specific defenses in the NFL — a unit that constantly shows different looks to different teams, while constantly disguising looks in an effort to confuse quarterbacks — it is unsurprising that the Titans have had occasional lapses this season. This team has held the Texans to 17 points, the Chargers to 20, and the Patriots to 10…but they have also allowed 27 points to the Dolphins, and they have allowed 30+ to the Texans (the second time around) and the Colts. Much as we saw in Vrabel’s stint as defensive coordinator with the Texans last year (and in some of Dean Pees’ final years with the Patriots), a complicated scheme can suffer when players are unable to keep track of all their assignments — an issue that has shown up from time to time with Tennessee. As we have alternately seen with Romeo Crennel’s 2018 Texans defense (and to a lesser extent, with Brian Flores’ 2018 Patriots defense), this approach can work when coaches put together a strong game plan and when players are talented and adaptable, but the Titans have had a few head-scratching defensive game plans this year, and their players have suffered from periodic lapses. Over the last couple weeks, these lapses have led to this unit allowing Texans running backs to pop off for 211 yards on 25 carries in Week 12 and Jets backs to go for a (less awful) 135 yards on 31 carries in Week 13. This is how the Jaguars will look to attack for as long as this game remains close, as they morphed into a run-first (and second…and third) team with Leonard Fournette finally healthy and with Blake Bortles under center, and this approach will be further emphasized with checkdown-master Cody Kessler under center. The Jags will aim to win this game by leaning on the run, preventing turnovers on offense, and dominating with defense.

As for the matchup: Tennessee had been playing strong run defense before those lapses against Houston and the Jets — and with Malcolm Butler getting torched weekly at the cornerback position for the Titans (on the year :: 48 catches allowed on 69 targets in his direction (69.6%), for 681 yards (14.2 yards per reception), seven touchdowns, and only two picks), teams were hardly even attempting to attack this team on the ground. In the weeks leading up to these recent run defense breakdowns, Marlon Mack rushed only 16 times for only 61 yards against the Titans // Sony Michel and Cordarrelle Patterson rushed only 15 times for only 42 yards // Ezekiel Elliott rushed only 17 times for only 61 yards // Austin Ekeler rushed only 12 times for only 42 yards.

Unless the Titans just absolutely control this game on offense (unlikely, given that the Titans rank bottom eight in drive success rate on offense, and the Jags have allowed the fourth lowest drive success rate as a defense), Fournette is going to top those 12 to 17 carries that backs had been seeing against Tennessee (he has touch counts of 29 // 30 // 21 since returning — with the 21 touches coming in only three quarters), so volume should not be a major concern. The Titans are going to be selling out to stop the run in this one — forcing Kessler to beat them — so matchup is a bit of an issue against a run defense that was shaving 10% off the league-average yards per carry before running into Lamar Miller in Week 12. Barring some long runs (which is something the Titans have been good at defending this year — allowing the sixth fewest rush plays of 20+ yards), Fournette will have a tough time topping 4.0 to 4.5 yards per carry. But 25+ touches is a genuinely fair projection.

JAGUARS PASS OFFENSE

The Jaguars’ pass offense would be written off completely on the Main Slate, but with a weak Tennessee offense taking on a stout Jaguars defense on the other side, there are going to be some opportunities for Jags pass catchers to make a small dent on this ugly slate.

The only real hope for the Jags opening up the offense with a downfield-attacking pass game is for Tennessee to jump out to a big lead. (The likeliest path to a big, early Tennessee lead? — turnovers. And since the Titans rank 29th in takeaways, and since the Jags installed Cody Kessler to do two things: 1. hand off the football, and 2. avoid turnovers, it’s an extreme outlier bet to assume the Titans will, in fact, jump out to a big lead.) As such, we need to recognize that Kessler threw 37.5% of his Week 13 targets to running backs, with only 11 looks going to wide receivers. Those looks were divided up as follows:

:: Dede Westbrook — 5
:: Donte Moncrief — 4
:: Keelan Cole — 2

Only four of Kessler’s 24 attempts last week traveled even eight or more yards downfield. He completed only one of those passes — which is not to say he is incapable of completing a few more, but it does illustrate the low ceiling on this group of pass catchers, outside of broken plays or a lucky touchdown. Westbrook runs the highest-floor routes, while Moncrief’s routes give him a lower floor but provide a higher ceiling. Cole has been phased out of the game plans, and will need to run into a downfield target on a broken play in order to matter. If D.J. Chark returns this week, he’ll play over Cole, and he adds explosive after-catch ability to a variable route tree.

One final note on the Jags’ offense :: in Week 11, Fournette played 35 snaps while Carlos Hyde played 11 and T.J. Yeldon played 23. Yeldon ran 17 pass routes. The Jags deployed similar usage in Week 10, with Fournette playing only 12 more snaps than Yeldon, and with Yeldon running 23 pass routes to Fournette’s 13. It’s not a crazy bet that Yeldon will outscore the Jags’ receivers. (Hyde is a “bet on a long play or a touchdown” on his likely four to 10 carries.)

TITANS PASS OFFENSE

As we have talked about all year: the Jags’ problem has not been their defense, but has instead been all the turnovers their offense has given up. The Jags’ defense has been called a disappointment all season, and all season I have wondered what people are looking at. Yes, the Jags’ pass rush has taken a big step back this year…but even with their offense giving the ball away the fifth most times in the league, the Jags have allowed the fifth fewest points and the third fewest yards in the NFL. The Jags rank 10th in fewest yards allowed per carry (and if we take away that “only Saquon could do it” run that the Giants’ rookie back had against them in Week 1, they would move up to seventh), they rank fourth in fewest yards allowed per pass attempt, they have allowed the second lowest catch rate in the NFL, and they have allowed the third fewest wide receiver receptions.

The Titans’ offense, meanwhile, ranks 28th in both points and yards, they rank 24th in drive success rate, and they rank 23rd in Three & Out rate. They are in an awful spot this week, with the only major bonus being the fact that this team is at home.

Same as the Jags’ passing attack, the Titans would be off the board on the Main Slate. On the Showdown, the likeliest source of production will be A) volume, or B) big plays. Volume is the higher-floor bet, but “big play” bets are likelier to win you a tourney if they pay off.

The “volume” play in the Jags’ passing attack is Corey Davis, who has averaged only five targets per game across the last three weeks, but who also had 27 targets across his previous three games. Davis will almost certainly be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey, but he’ll avoid him on the 30% of snaps he will run from the slot, and he won a similarly challenging matchup against Stephon Gilmore in Week 10.

The “big play” bets are Taywan Taylor and Cameron Batson. Taylor played 29 of 68 snaps last week, while Batson played 23. Taylor saw five targets to Batson’s two. Taylor may see his snaps rise a bit more this week, but the Titans have been hesitant all year to use him as an every-down player. Taylor saw an awesome three targets of 40+ yards last week.

This “attack” wraps up with Tajae Sharpe (a respectable aDOT this year of 11.6, with a bounce-around target share; he’s had only two games this year with real fantasy relevance, but a touchdown might get him there) and with Jonnu Smith (three or fewer targets in all but one game this year, but there is slim potential for this to be a target-spike spot for him).

TITANS RUN OFFENSE

The Jaguars have continued to play great against the run — allowing 3.76 yards per carry to running backs (3.50 when we take away that Saquon run), while allowing the sixth fewest rushing yards, the seventh fewest receiving yards, and the fewest touchdowns to running backs. The Titans’ offensive line ranks bottom eight in adjusted line yards, and they have been unable to spring long run plays all year, with the fifth fewest rush plays of 20+ yards.

This backfield continues to belong to Dion Lewis in the snap department, but Lewis has seen recent touch counts of 11 // 14 // 8, to touch counts of 9 // 10 // 12 for Derrick Henry. Henry has caught four passes across his last two games. Lewis has caught an incredible 45 of 51 targets on the year (88.2%) and should be getting more creatively-schemed looks than he is…but since he is not seeing these looks, he has become a low-floor play who depends on big plays for ceiling. The best bet on Lewis would be to believe he’ll see another usage spike in a tough spot.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

It is genuinely fairly safe to expect 25+ touches for Fournette — and while there is some risk that this leads to only 110 to 130 total yards, this still sets him up as one of the top plays on the Showdown for me. The matchup (and the certainty that the Titans will focus primarily on the run) introduces some slim concern, but it wouldn’t be enough to offset the volume for me. He is pretty clearly the highest-floor, highest-ceiling bet on this Showdown.

Elsewhere on the Jags’ offense, it wouldn’t be crazy to prefer Yeldon over the wide receivers. The wide receivers carry a higher ceiling, but if this game stays low-scoring and the Jags hold a lead through much of it, Yeldon actually becomes the better play. Obviously, all of these plays would be high-variance bets.

Even with the more difficult matchup, “style of play” indicates that one or two pass catchers on the Titans are likely to outscore the receivers on the Jags, though it’s tough to pin down who those plays might be. Corey Davis is the safest bet, Taywan Taylor is the low-floor/high-ceiling bet, and Jonnu, Sharpe, and even Batson are all “dart throws that have a slim path to hitting.” Mariota is a dart throw as well, with a decent shot at 200 passing yards and 20 to 30 rushing yards. If he breaks a long run or passes for one or two touchdowns against this disciplined, assignment-strong defense, he could be a nice piece. None of this feels safe or even necessarily “likely,” but if you’re playing this slate, those are some potential outcomes to consider betting on.

If you want to play the Titans’ backfield, you’re betting on broken plays (unlikely) or touchdowns (unlikely…but not impossible).

The defenses could easily outscore some skill position players, though it is worth noting that these teams rank bottom 12 in both sacks and takeaways on defense. There is a decent chance this game is low-scoring but not turnover-filled. There is also, of course, a chance for plenty of stalled drives in field goal range, and for the kickers to get involved.


Kickoff Sunday, Dec 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Falcons (
23.25) at

Packers (
27.25)

Over/Under 50.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Falcons Run D
8th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
17th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
29th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
5th DVOA/10th Yards per pass
Packers Run D
26th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
20th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
27th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
22nd DVOA/8th Yards per pass

FALCONS // PACKERS OVERVIEW

When the schedule-makers set up this late-season clash, they surely assumed it would carry heavy playoff implications. Instead, this game features a 4-8 team traveling to take on a 4-7-1 team that just fired its head coach.

There are some things to like about this game. It projects to be played in cold (but not bone-chilling cold), sunny weather, with a Falcons offense that ranks 10th in yards per game (even after their drubbing at the hands of the Ravens last week) and a Falcons defense that is allowing the seventh most yards per game in the league. Dan Quinn always finds a way to keep his team motivated, and the Packers will be playing with extra motivation this week. The season for both of these teams has been disappointing enough that “shootout” is not a foregone conclusion — but there is a good chance we see some strong DFS scores emerge from this spot. Vegas opened this game with an Over/Under of 48.0, and it was quickly bet up to 49.0. The Packers are hovering as just-under-touchdown favorites.

PACKERS PASS OFFENSE

When Jeff Driskel took over as the quarterback of the Bengals, he and Bengals OC Bill Lazor both talked about how they were already equipped to work together because they communicate so much throughout the week. One example Lazor gave was the way he asks each quarterback on the team to give him a list of the plays they like the most each week, so that he can get a feel over time for what each quarterback is most comfortable with.

Other teams set up similar communication patterns between their quarterbacks and their play-caller. Josh McDaniels and Tom Brady are known to text throughout the week with play ideas and concepts for that week. Drew Brees and Sean Payton meet each Saturday night to talk over the plays they like the most for that week — and they have a rule that the play won’t be run unless both of them feel comfortable with it.

Former Packers receiver James Jones had an interesting bit of insight this week in talking about the relationship Mike McCarthy had with Aaron Rodgers — saying, essentially, that because McCarthy was the head coach, he was not always with the offense. As such, the players would communicate with Joe Philbin what plays they liked and what plays they didn’t — but even though this information would get relayed to McCarthy, it wouldn’t always show up in the play-calling (presumably because it simply was not at the front of McCarthy’s mind; that is to say, it’s not as if McCarthy was (intentionally) sabotaging the offense — but this lack of communication presented issues).

This is likely the biggest impact of the McCarthy firing, as the Packers will still be using the same playbook, and they will still have the same players on the field. One of those “players on the field” will still be Aaron Rodgers (it’s not difficult to imagine he’ll be fired up to prove a point in this spot), so if the communication improves, it’s not crazy to think we see an improved unit on the field this week.

The matchup, as you know by now, could not be much better. Atlanta has been completely mediocre against the pass this year, allowing a 5.5% increase on the league-average catch rate and ranking 23rd in yards allowed per pass attempt.

The Falcons rank middle of the pack in yards and receptions allowed to wide receivers, but only three teams have allowed more passing touchdowns than the Falcons this year — drawing our attention to Davante Adams, who leads the NFL in red zone targets and ranks second in receiving touchdowns. Adams has seen seven or more targets in every game this year, and he has double-digit looks in half his games. This is a good matchup — against a defense that typically focuses on assignments over opponent-specific game plans, allowing alpha receivers to be schemed as many targets as the offense wants. Adams will run most of his routes at Robert Alford, who has struggled this season to the tune of a 138.6 quarterback rating allowed.

This defense is most attackable over the short middle, where Randall Cobb runs the majority of his routes. Cobb is a low-upside bet with all the underneath targets he sees (across his last five games, he has 20 catches for only 141 total yards — which is, incredibly, one fewer yard than he had in Week 1 alone). If you want to bet on an outlier scenario, his short looks can occasionally turn into big gains.

This wide receiver unit wraps up with Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who has stumbled lately to only four catches on 12 targets (across his last three games), totaling only 30 yards in this stretch. MVS does still carry sneaky upside now that he has kicked to the perimeter with Cobb back on the field. He went only 2-19-0 last week on seven targets, but the previous time he played heavy perimeter snaps was Week 9 vs the Patriots, when he went 3-101-0 on six targets. He’s a low-floor, high-ceiling play.

Jimmy Graham saw 11 targets last week, just two weeks removed from a two-week stretch of one-target games. Most weeks, Graham has been involved — though he has rarely flashed for yardage upside, making him a bet-on-touchdown play. With Davante Adams hogging the end zone work, Graham has only two touchdowns all season. Working in his favor is a matchup against a Falcons team that has been middling against tight ends.

PACKERS RUN OFFENSE

One of the most obvious coaching mistakes from Mike McCarthy was his puzzling usage of Aaron Jones, who closed out his time with McCarthy seeing 39 snaps and 15 touches in a home loss to the 2-9 Cardinals…while plodding teammate Jamaal Williams somehow played 38 snaps and touched the ball 11 times. As of this writeup, I have seen no reports to indicate that Jones will see a spike in playing time, but I’ll be viewing this as a fairly safe bet this week. Not every running back has the incredible conditioning of a guy like Christian McCaffrey (who has literally played every snap recently for the Panthers), but at least 70% of the snaps should be here for Jones, who will have a shot to push for 17+ carries while adding looks in the pass game. Jones has recent target counts of 4 // 5 // 6 // 5 // 4. The Falcons have faced the most targets and allowed the most catches to running backs, while allowing the third most receiving yards and the 11th most rushing yards. Only six teams have allowed more touchdowns to running backs. On a per-touch basis, Jones’ red zone role has been on par with guys like Todd Gurley and recent-weeks Christian McCaffrey. There is obvious guesswork on the workload for this play, but Jones has spiked-week upside in this spot.

FALCONS PASS OFFENSE

Although Green Bay invites opponents to run the ball (and has faced the fifth highest rush play rate in the NFL), the Falcons have been the third pass-heaviest offense in the league this year as they have realized that they have no hope of producing consistent yardage on the ground. Before last week’s game (in which the Falcons ran only 45 plays vs Baltimore), Matt Ryan had thrown the ball (starting from Week 4) the following number of times :: 39 // 38 // 41 // 39 // 38 // 52 // 34 // 47. A pass-leaning game plan is the likeliest approach here.

The Packers have been attackable through the air with quality receivers, allowing 70+ yards to Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Tyler Lockett, Josh Gordon, Julian Edelman, Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, and Kenny Golladay. Outside of their games against the Vikings (who have dominated this secondary twice), the Packers have done a good job limiting catch rate — but wideouts are piling up enough downfield receptions to make consistent box score dents against them. Coming off a 2-18-0 game in a dispiriting home loss to the Ravens, Julio Jones enters a strong bounce-back spot. He and Ryan would benefit from playing this game at home in the dome, but the opportunities will still be there for him to hit.

Behind Julio — who ranks third in the NFL in targets per game and first in the league in percentage share of team air yards — this passing attack has been a whack-a-mole unit, with Calvin Ridley topping five targets only once in his last four games, and with Mohamed Sanu going for 21 or fewer receiving yards as many times this year (three) as he has managed to go over 56 receiving yards. Austin Hooper rounds out this attack with the occasional blowup in his back pocket, but with six consecutive games of 56 or fewer receiving yards. The Packers have been solid against tight ends this year, allowing the fifth fewest receptions to the position.

FALCONS RUN OFFENSE

The Packers are middling against the run — allowing 4.6 yards per carry — though volume in this split backfield is a bigger concern than matchup. Across the last six Falcons games, Tevin Coleman has averaged 9.5 carries and 2.8 receptions per game. Coleman has seven touchdowns on the year, but outside of a blowup game in Week 9 (two touchdowns // 156 total yards vs Washington), these touchdowns have barely even made his lines serviceable. It’s not crazy to bet on Coleman seeing a heavier workload after being “accidentally” out-carried by Ito Smith last week — and if he sees 14 to 17 touches, it’s not crazy to think he could rip off a big play to go with a potential score — but these bets would come with the low floor that Coleman has shown all year.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I’m actually somewhat excited about the Packers’ offense in this one — with acknowledgement that this is still something of a high-variance play. (It is no guarantee that this offense suddenly clicks just because a new guy is calling the same plays. The matchup does help, though; and it’s fair to assume Rodgers will be able to somewhat rally the troops.) I don’t think I would feel comfortable betting on MVS in anything but large-field tourneys, and Cobb is not really my style of play (with all the ultra-short looks), but I like Rodgers, and I really like Adams. In the backfield, Jones’ price on all three sites is a bit close to the top players on the slate — but if his usage is in line with those guys (22 to 25 touches), he’s actually not far off in projections in this spot. His price point (and his price-considered disappointment last week) will likely pull attention away from him, making him an intriguing tourney piece.

Temperatures on Sunday in Green Bay currently call for a high of 26; and while Matt Ryan was a finalist for the Heisman while playing for Boston College, he has played most of his games across the last 10 years in the domes and warm-weather environments of the NFC South. We would prefer this team indoors, on turf, making Ryan more “speculative for upside” than central piece this week — but I cannot imagine that many people will be thinking about Ryan, and he does have some of the highest upside in football if this game turns into a shootout. He’s an interesting piece in tourneys.

Julio is an interesting piece in all formats for his locked-in targets and the consistency and upside he carries. His red zone role, as always, is a concern, but he can rip off chunk gains with the best of them, and his floor in this matchup should be respectable (something like 6-90-0 if things go even just somewhat according to plan).

With volume on the rest of this passing attack so scattershot, I likely won’t go beyond Julio, but all three of Sanu // Ridley // Hooper are theoretically viable in large-field tourneys for their upside. The backfield will almost certainly be off-limits for me. Coleman is explosive enough to rip off a big run, but he hasn’t topped 13 carries since Week 4, and he hasn’t topped 16 carries all season.


Kickoff Sunday, Dec 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Ravens (
21.25) at

Chiefs (
27.75)

Over/Under 49.0

Tweet
Notes

Key Matchups
Ravens Run D
7th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
11th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
6th DVOA/19th Yards per pass
Chiefs Run D
27th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
1st DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
5th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
4th DVOA/4th Yards per pass

RAVENS // CHIEFS OVERVIEW

Analysis is almost futile in a spot like this, with one of the top offenses in the NFL taking on the best defense in the league. As we saw when the Panthers played the Ravens in Week 8 (36 points for Carolina) — and as we even saw from the Bengals in Week 2 (34 points for Cincy) — a strong offense with quality pieces can post a strong game in a matchup like this. But as we also saw in Week 4 against the Steelers (14 points at home), Week 7 against the Saints (24 points at Baltimore), and Week 13 against the Falcons (16 points at home), a defense this good can pull an opposing offense down to significantly below-average results. Aiding the Chiefs in this spot is the locale of this game, as they will have an easier time producing their standard results with the crowd working in their favor. Working against the Chiefs is the absence of the explosiveness in the backfield that had been allowing them to put pressure on an opposing defense from one more angle. Patrick Mahomes has been tremendous this year, and this is one of the most adaptable and well-designed offensive units in the league — but if Sammy Watkins misses again and the Chiefs are down to just two primary weapons for the Ravens to defend, they could have a tough time reaching their lofty Vegas-implied total of 29.0. Unsurprisingly, this Vegas-implied total is much lower than it was when the week started, as this game opened with an Over/Under of 53.5 and has fallen to 51.5, while the Chiefs have dropped from -9.0 to -6.5 — falling from an original Vegas-implied total of 31.25. This is not to say that the Chiefs cannot put up yards and points; but it does speak to the difficulties this matchup presents.

CHIEFS PASS OFFENSE

We saved this writeup for last on the Main Slate, hoping that more concrete information would emerge on the availability of Watkins — but even after waiting until Thursday afternoon to write up this game, Watkins’ status remains up in the air. He is an important piece for the Chiefs this week, as he would be capable of beating single coverage often enough to put serious strain on a Ravens team that will be focused on limiting Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce first and foremost. If Watkins misses, it will be up to Chris Conley and DeMarcus Robinson to win matchups away from the Ravens’ primary emphasis of attention.

On the year, the Ravens are allowing the lowest catch rate in the league and the second lowest YAC/R rate in the league. No team has allowed fewer yards per pass attempt than the Ravens. Only the Jags and Vikings have allowed fewer passing touchdowns. Only two teams have allowed fewer receptions to wide receivers. Only one team has allowed fewer yards to wide receivers. Since A.J. Green went 5-69-3 against the Ravens in Week 2 (with Tyler Boyd chipping in 6-91-1), elite receivers against this team have put up the following stat lines:

:: Antonio Brown — 5-62-1 (11 targets)
:: JuJu Smith-Schuster — 4-60-0 (11 targets)
:: Michael Thomas — 7-69-1 (nine targets)
:: Antonio Brown — 5-42-1 (10 targets)
:: JuJu Smith-Schuster — 7-78-0 (nine targets)
:: Tyler Boyd — 4-71-0 (11 targets)
:: Julio Jones — 2-18-0 (eight targets)

From a price-considered standpoint, it is going to be difficult for Tyreek to pop off in this spot — especially as this talented, disciplined, assignment-tight defense is going to be focused first and foremost on not allowing him to beat them deep. From a pure upside perspective, Hill will still get his downfield shots, opening opportunities for a long play or a multi-score game — but it will be difficult for him to hit on these looks in this spot.

The Ravens’ greatest weakness in coverage has come against tight ends, where this team uses variable coverage looks and assignments to contain the position — none of which have produced the elite results that this team has been able to produce against other positions. On the year, the Ravens have allowed the 10th most catches and the eighth most yards to the position. There is a case to be made that the Ravens will introduce some coverage wrinkles to make sure Kelce does not beat them downfield — but Kelce should draw the Ravens’ standard tight end coverage often enough to become the Chiefs’ primary means of moving the ball successfully in this spot. The Ravens have yet to face a tight end the caliber of Kelce, and they don’t really have any players with the size/speed combo necessary to stick with him.

If Watkins misses, Conley could be in line for another steady workload. In this three game stretch with Watkins hardly playing, Conley has seen target counts of 2 // 8 // 7, contributing 11 catches on these 17 looks (64.7%) for 121 yards (a low 7.1 yards per target). He doesn’t really have the skill set to win in this matchup, but the potential work will give him another outside shot at hitting.

If Watkins returns, he’ll be tasked with beating isolated looks — with plenty of these looks likely coming from struggling superstar Jimmy Smith. Watkins would carry a low floor in his first game back, but he would have tourney appeal as a guy who has the explosiveness to win in tight spots.

CHIEFS RUN OFFENSE

The Ravens have been almost as good against the run as they have been against the pass — ranking sixth in fewest yards allowed per carry and fifth in DVOA against the run. After failing in his audition for workhorse duties last week, Spencer Ware may also see his work cut back this time around — with the Chiefs signing old pal Charcandrick West this last week, and with this team potentially set to get Damien Williams a bit more involved as well (Williams piled up 45 yards on seven touches last week — not far behind Ware’s 52 yards on 15 touches). There is also a case to be made that this highly adaptable offense will become a bit more pass-leaning without Kareem Hunt in the backfield.

If you want to take a shot on this backfield in a difficult matchup, it is noteworthy that Ware played 49 of 71 snaps last week (69.0%), giving him the clearest shot at a difference-making workload.

RAVENS RUN OFFENSE

While the Chiefs have continued to show improvement throughout the year against the pass (more on this below), they have struggled to slow down the run — ranking 31st in yards allowed per carry and 32nd in run defense DVOA. With this team constantly playing with a lead, they rank only 14th in running back rush attempts faced, but they have allowed the eighth most rushing yards to the position, and they have also allowed the third most running back receptions. With the Ravens’ defense potentially capable of slowing down the Chiefs’ electric attack, there is a chance that this run game becomes viable again this week.

Working against DFS viability for this backfield is the way this team is splitting responsibilities, with Gus Edwards proving to be a true zero in the pass game (76 carries on the year; one reception), and with Ty Montgomery mixing in for recent target counts of 3 // 7. Last week, Kenneth Dixon came off I.R. to contribute eight carries and one reception of his own. Dixon (who was a threat during the summer to take over the lead job) is the most complete all-around back and could continue to see his role grow after playing 21.0% of the snaps last week. (Edwards played 49.4% of the snaps. Montgomery played 33.3%.)

For as long as this game stays close, the Ravens are going to run the ball (since Lamar Jackson took over under center, this team has passed the ball on only 34.39% of their plays; as a reminder :: the Seahawks have the lowest pass play rate in the NFL this year, “all the way up” at 48.86%), which should still create space for Edwards to push for 18 to 20 yardage-and-touchdown touches (assuming he remains the lead dog). Dixon has an outside shot at producing a sneaky-viable score, with potential for his touches to rise to the 10 to 14 range. Montgomery is a bet-on-efficiency option in his pass-game-only role.

RAVENS PASS OFFENSE

The Chiefs rank 15th in yards allowed per pass attempt, and they are shaving almost 3% off the league-average catch rate — continuing to allow explosive plays from time to time, but playing fairly sticky coverage on a per-play basis. The Chiefs rank 13th in DVOA against the pass. Because this team has played with a lead so often, they have faced the most pass attempts in the NFL — but the Ravens will enter this game with another run-and-defense-first game plan, and they can only be expected to go pass-heavy if they fall a couple touchdowns behind. If betting on the actual pass game pieces of this passing attack, you should build rosters that first bet on the idea that the Chiefs will be playing with a lead (i.e., attempting to isolate the pieces on the Chiefs that you believe will help them get there).

Since Jackson took over under center for the Ravens, targets among wide receivers have looked like this:

:: Willie Snead — 8 // 0 // 3
:: John Brown — 1 // 7 // 4
:: Michael Crabtree — 3 // 6 // 4

Snead has gone 6-69-0 through the air across his last three games on his 11 targets. JB has gone 2-48-0 through the air across his last three games on his 12 targets (though he has been close to a couple big plays). Crabtree has gone 7-64-1 through the air across his last three games on his 13 targets.

All four tight ends continue to see snaps (each of them played over 25% of the snaps last week), with Mark Andrews and Nick Boyle the best bets for targets, but with Hayden Hurst still in the mix.

Obviously, no pass catchers on the Ravens have been remotely viable since Jackson took over, but targets would obviously have a chance to spike if you want to bet on a game flow scenario that has the Chiefs taking a big lead and the Ravens playing from behind.

Jackson himself is best viewed as an extension of the run game, with points through the air across the last three weeks of 5.0 // 9.12 // 5.0, but with rushing totals of 119 // 71 // 75. He has added two touchdowns on the ground (and fumbled the ball five times). Last week, he threw only 84% of the team’s passes, with Robert Griffin III picking up four pass attempts of his own. Things could obviously open up in this attack if the Ravens fall behind, but the Ravens will try to prevent that scenario by continuing to keep the ball on the ground and chew up clock as often as they can.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

While the Chiefs’ offense is legitimately always in play in tourneys for the monster upside they can produce, the only play on this offense who stands out as a solid floor/ceiling option is Kelce (and even he carries some slim concerns, given that the Ravens will surely have some coverages in place to make life difficult on him). With prices still fairly high on this offense across the board (and with plenty of high floor/ceiling spots available on this slate), this unit won’t be a primary focus for me. If multi-entering large-field tourneys, however, it certainly still makes sense to fire off a few Chiefs stacks on the off chance they hit big once again. There is also a case to be made for firing away on Hill or Mahomes in tourneys in the hopes that talent wins out over matchup.

I expect the Ravens to keep this game close, so I won’t be taking outlier shots on this passing attack; and while I expect the Ravens to find success on the ground, the distribution of usage will likely chase me off this team altogether. If I do decide to go here, the guys who stand out the most are Jackson for his legs and Edwards for his 100-yard, two-touchdown potential. Dixon or even Montgomery could surprise with a strong game in this spot as well.


Kickoff Sunday, Dec 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Panthers (
24.5) at

Browns (
23.5)

Over/Under 48.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Panthers Run D
32nd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
21st DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
20th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
26th DVOA/13th Yards per pass
Browns Run D
5th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
25th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
2nd DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
32nd DVOA/32nd Yards per pass

PANTHERS // BROWNS OVERVIEW

The Panthers have tumbled to a 6-6 record with four consecutive losses, and they are now traveling to take on an improving, 4-7-1 Browns team that is 1-5 on the road but 3-2-1 at home. This game pairs contrasting styles, with a slow-paced Panthers offense taking on an aggressive Browns defense, and with a fast-paced Browns offense taking on a play-it-back Panthers defense that ranks 15th in takeaways and 20th in sacks, and that aims to keep the ball in front of them and take away big plays. The Panthers need a win and the Browns are continuing to play hard, which should create a solid start-to-finish setup. Both offenses are above-average with solid pieces, leading to a quietly attractive Over/Under of 47.0. The Panthers have been installed as early-week 2.0 point favorites on the road.

PANTHERS PASS OFFENSE

Gregg Williams’ aggressive Browns defense has continued to improve throughout the year, and they have currently allowed the seventh fewest yards per pass attempt, on the strength of a below-average aDOT, a below-average YAC/R rate allowed, and the third lowest catch rate allowed in the league. With the Browns playing at the sixth fastest pace in the league and allowing the most opponent plays per game, however, they have faced the third most wide receiver targets — allowing the fifth most catches and the sixth most yards.

The toughest matchup will likely go to D.J. Moore, who is expected to draw shadow coverage from impressive rookie Denzel Ward. Ward has allowed a completion rate on throws into his coverage of only 53.2%, with a quarterback rating allowed of only 70.0. He is also allowing an impressively low YAC/R of 3.3 — making life difficult on a player in Moore who draws a lot of his upside from the 5.1 YAC/R that he has paired with his below-average aDOT of 9.1. Moore is a strong route-runner, and he has truly exciting after-catch ability, keeping his upside visible; but this is a tough draw.

Moore’s matchup against Ward should filter one or two extra targets elsewhere — with another four to six targets missing from the loss of Greg Olsen (foot). Snap counts on this team last week among wide receivers looked like this:

:: Moore — 66
:: Curtis Samuel — 58
:: Jarius Wright — 39
:: Devin Funchess — 32
:: Torrey Smith — 9

Smith appears to be healthy and “phased out of the offense” at the moment. Funchess’ limited snaps were expected last week as the Panthers looked to ease him back in — though there is a decent chance that this was simply Carolina’s excuse to limit his snaps in favor of Moore and Samuel. At this point, Moore is very clearly locked in as the top option. Samuel may drop to a smaller snap share this week, but after he was fed 11 targets last week, he’s clearly going to maintain a role. With Ian Thomas soaking up five targets last week at tight end, there is danger that this team spreads the ball around too much behind McCaffrey for anyone to matter. Wright is the lowest-upside play as the Panthers’ possession-only receiver — requiring a broken play or a touchdown to matter. Funchess is touchdown-dependent with an iffy workload. Samuel is risky, but high-upside; he has a chance to pop a couple more times down the stretch if the targets remain in the six-and-above range. Thomas is a wildcard after failing to top three targets when Olsen missed earlier in the year, in spite of constantly running pass routes in that stretch. The safest bet is to consider last week’s five-target game to have been fluky…but with the Browns facing (by far) the most tight end targets in the NFL, Thomas is going to be a cheap name to consider this week.

PANTHERS RUN OFFENSE

After having almost no red zone role through the first eight weeks of the season, Christian McCaffrey has exploded over the Panthers’ last five games — soaring up to fifth in the NFL in red zone carries (ahead of Zeke, and just barely behind Conner, Saquon, and Kamara), while getting involved in the pass game near the goal line as well. The play-calling on this team saw a sharp and sudden shift in Week 9 against the Bucs, and they haven’t looked back since. CMC has incredibly scored 10 of his 11 touchdowns from Week 8 on. He has still topped 19 touches in only four of 12 games, but his pass game role makes him one of the safest plays on the slate, and his rise in red zone usage has locked him in as one of the highest-ceiling plays as well. Matchup has hardly mattered for CMC, but it doesn’t hurt that the Browns have allowed the fifth most rushing yards and the ninth most receiving yards to enemy backs. If the Browns do give the Panthers more plays than normal, CMC will likely see a boost in the volume department, as he is playing a full 100% of the Panthers’ snaps at the moment.

BROWNS PASS OFFENSE

The Browns are spreading out the field and taking full advantage of the unique skills of Baker Mayfield — but they are also being run by a defensive coach, and in two of their last three games we have seen them shut down the passing attack in favor of the run as soon as they gained a lead. In wins over Atlanta and Cincinnati, Baker threw the ball only 20 and 26 times. In order for this passing attack to maximize its potential, the Panthers will likely have to grab an early lead — which is worth keeping in mind if trying to figure out how to optimize your exposure to this game.

This is a good matchup for Baker and a passing attack that has not relied too heavily on YAC for their production, as YAC prevention is the only thing this Panthers unit really does well. Carolina has allowed the fourth lowest YAC/R rate in the league, but they have allowed a 4.9% increase on the league-average aDOT and a 2.4% increase on the league-average catch rate. Baker has an awesome 71.8% completion rate over his last four games in this ball-out-quick spread attack, and he’ll have a shot to pile up another solid game here.

While it is easy to see production from the Browns’ quarterback, it is more difficult to pinpoint pass catchers to bet on in this spread-the-wealth attack. It is always most favorable to bet on attacks with a narrow target distribution and a downfield style. This offense has continually spread the ball to eight or more pass catchers over the last four weeks, with a decent chunk of these passes coming short (and with very few coming more than 20 yards downfield).

If you are set on betting on Mayfield: a high-volume game from him should lead to another seven to nine looks for Jarvis Landry, who was used extremely well last week — seeing targets on: a deep crossing route, a drag route, a corner route, and a wheel route — all in addition to a few other quick-out looks. This was the first “upside” usage for Landry in recent weeks — giving him more hope than he had on the type of usage he was seeing earlier in the season. Antonio Callaway and David Njoku would be the next most appealing options, as they are locked into a joint share of number two duties behind Landry. Callaway has been steadily improving, and it won’t be surprising if he has one or two more nice games down the stretch. Rashard Higgins wraps up this group of viable Browns as the lowest-usage piece. Higgins quietly has seven games this year with a 20+ yard reception (in nine games played), and his trustworthy hands have earned him three touchdowns, so he’s not a total loss — though he is a dud on weeks when he catches only one or two balls.

BROWNS RUN OFFENSE

The Panthers rank eight in yards allowed per carry and eighth in run defense DVOA. Only six teams have allowed fewer yards to running backs this year.

Nick Chubb should see his 18+ carries as long as the Browns are able to keep this game close. He has added exactly three receptions in three consecutive games. A bet on Chubb this week is a bet on A) the Browns playing this game close, and B) Chubb beating a tough matchup. He’ll have to do a lot of the work on his own, as his offensive line ranks 21st in adjusted line yards, while the Panthers’ defense ranks second.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

With the Panthers likelier than normal to run 70 plays, I’ll have some interest in this side of the ball, though it’s difficult to fall in love with much away from the backfield. With Ward on Moore, he’s a tourney-only play for me; and the rest of the pass catchers are a bit thin from a “certainty” perspective. Thomas is an interesting salary saver, though we have yet to see any upside from him. Samuel is a favorite play of mine — and with six touchdowns on the year, one carry in four of his last five games, and 20 targets across his last three games, I may mix him into large-field play and hope that the Panthers view him as too valuable to remove from the field. The clearest plays on this side of the ball, of course, are Christian McCaffrey (one of the safest, highest-upside plays on the slate) and Cam Newton, who is a good bet to bounce back in a must-win game.

I like the idea of betting on Baker this week in large-field tourneys. He comes with the risk of a rookie and he is not exactly being offered at a big discount compared to the safer names this week, but it’s not crazy to think he could top some of those more popular names in a home game against a below-average pass defense. In order for Mayfield to truly shine, the Panthers will likely have to grab a lead — so rosters with Baker at quarterback would optimally pair him with a piece or two on the Panthers. He can also be paired with Landry, Callaway, Njoku, or Higgins — though he does spread the ball around enough that it is possible for him become a strong tourney play on his own.

Chubb has the ability to beat a tough matchup, but it is easy enough to pin down high-floor/high-ceiling plays at the running back position that I am likelier to search for my differentiation in higher-variance spots.


Kickoff Sunday, Dec 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Colts (
22.5) at

Texans (
26.5)

Over/Under 49.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Colts Run D
24th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
30th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
14th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
12th DVOA/5th Yards per pass
Texans Run D
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
9th DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
23rd DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
17th DVOA/15th Yards per pass

COLTS // TEXANS OVERVIEW

Colts // Texans brings us an exciting matchup between two of the hottest teams in football. The Colts are coming off a tough 0-6 loss on the road at Jacksonville, but they had won five in a row before that. The Texans have won an NFL-best nine consecutive games — riding their defense, a strong run game, and just the right amount of Deshaun Watson to DeAndre Hopkins (“just the right amount” in real life, that is; certainly not just the right amount for fantasy). Indy plays at the fastest pace in the NFL and is willing to open things up through the air against tough run defenses, while the Texans rank middle of the pack in pace of play and have preferred to win games on the ground, ranking behind only Seattle in rush play rate. The Colts’ defense capitalizes on speed and forcing opponents to march the whole field. The Texans’ defense relies on their unblockable defensive line to create issues for opposing run games and passing attacks, while trying to confuse quarterbacks with variable looks and coverage schemes. This will be a fun game to watch, with the winner gaining important position in the playoff race (Houston is still chasing the number one seed, and Indy is chasing the final Wild Card spot). The Texans have been installed as 4.5 point favorites in a game with a healthy Over/Under of 49.0

COLTS PASS OFFENSE

The Colts have been one of the most adaptable offensive units in the NFL — going pass-heavy when Marlon Mack was missing in action earlier in the year, turning into a run-heavy team after Mack returned, then throwing the ball 52 times last week at Jacksonville (adopting the Patriots’ and Steelers’ occasional mindset of, “this defense is tough no matter what, so we may as well trust our star quarterback”). With Houston boasting a top five run defense and facing the eighth highest opponent pass play rate in the NFL, it would make sense for Indy to take this approach again — perhaps starting out with efforts at a balanced approach, but eventually putting the ball into Luck’s hands and giving him a chance to take over the game.

In the first game with Jack Doyle (once again) off the field for the Colts, 28 of the 52 pass attempts thrown by Andrew Luck went to T.Y. Hilton and Eric Ebron — good for a massive 53.8% target share. Luck, of course, had not topped 37 pass attempts in his five previous games (with 31 or fewer passes in four of those), so a high-volume game is not guaranteed for either guy (even on such a massive target share) — but with this game lining up nicely for a pass-heavy approach from the Colts, and with Hilton and Ebron providing solid target floors even without a pass-heavy game script, each guy draws the eye this week.

Ebron pulls the best matchup against a Houston team that has been torched by tight ends this year, consistently allowing above-expectation production while giving up the seventh most receptions and the sixth most yards to the position.

As for Hilton: he has a history of production against the Texans, with over 1200 receiving yards and nine touchdowns in 13 career games against his division rival. He has topped 100 yards in six of those 12 games, and he has regularly given Johnathan Joseph and Kareem Jackson fits. Joseph may miss this week with a neck injury, potentially setting up Hilton for some snaps against liability Shareece Wright. This is a very good Texans defense — and with the second fewest touchdowns allowed to wide receivers, upside has been tough to come by against them. But Hilton will be given opportunities to hit, giving him his typical range of iffy price-considered floor and excellent price-considered upside.

With Luck throwing 52 times last week, the final heavy-usage piece was running back Nyheim Hines, who saw nine targets with the Colts in pass-first mode. He averaged only 5.6 yards per catch on these looks, but he should at least be involved again.

Behind these three, Dontrelle Inman went 2-14-0 on six targets. Volume was otherwise spread thin across a handful of players.

COLTS RUN OFFENSE

Houston has been atmospheric against the run this year, ranking sixth in adjusted line yards, fourth in yards allowed per carry, and second in run defense DVOA. Only the Saints and the Ravens have allowed fewer rushing yards than the Texans this year, creating a tough spot for Marlon Mack, who has performed well in easy matchups but mostly struggled in tough matchups. The last time Houston allowed a running back to top 60 yards against them was Week 6. The best rushing games against this team were 82 yards from Saquon Barkley and 73 yards from LeSean McCoy. Mack is going to need a busted play or a multi-touchdown game for anyone to notice he was playing on this slate.

TEXANS RUN OFFENSE

The Texans’ run offense has been awesome lately — with Lamar Miller topping 100 yards in four of his last six games — but this squad will run into a tough matchup in this spot against an Indy team that ranks seventh in fewest yards allowed per carry, seventh in adjusted line yards, and fourth in run defense DVOA. No running back has cracked 100 yards against the Colts this year, and no running back has cracked even 81 yards since Week 5. Miller should get his volume once again in this spot — though with such a limited pass game role, he’ll need a multi-touchdown game or a long run in order to notch relevant production. Behind Miller, Alfred Blue has continued to see heavy usage in this run-heavy offense — though he has not topped 54 rushing yards in a game all season.

TEXANS PASS OFFENSE

The Colts have been less daunting against the pass — forcing the shallowest aDOT in the league, but now allowing the highest catch rate in the league to go with it. This has led to the Colts ranking a middling 19th in yards allowed per pass attempt. While a huge chunk of their receptions have been allowed to running backs (the second most running back receptions in the league — paired with the third fewest receiving yards allowed to wide receivers), the Texans are not shy about throwing to wide receivers in any matchup when they choose to go to the air. Ultimately, the matchup itself here is above-average, as the Colts are allowing a 68.75% completion rate on passes to wide receivers. When these teams met in Week 4, DeAndre Hopkins hit the Colts for a 10-169-1 receiving line on only 12 targets, in a still-pass-heavy Texans attack.

Digging a bit deeper, it is noteworthy that the Texans’ run-heavy stretch has come against Buffalo, Jacksonville, Miami, Denver, Washington, Tennessee, and Cleveland — none of whom had a quarterback capable of pushing the Texans on the scoreboard and forcing them to click into attack mode. It’s no guarantee, but the clearest path to upside on the Texans’ side of the ball is to bet on the Colts scoring through the air and forcing the Texans to respond. If the Texans are unable to lean run-heavy in a tough matchup on the ground, it is worth noting that Hopkins now ranks third in the NFL in percentage share of team air yards, behind only Julio and OBJ. With Will Fuller out, Keke Coutee unable to get healthy, and Demaryius Thomas showing little, Hopkins has once again taken over as the king of this offense. He saw 12 looks last week when Deshaun Watson was finally forced to throw more than 24 times (31 pass attempts — giving Hopkins an unreal 38.7% of the team’s targets). Hopkins also saw 10 targets in a Week 9 game in which Watson threw only 24 times. Hopkins’ sheer talent has still given him a decent floor in his low-target games; but if this turns into a high-target game for him, he can win in a big way in this matchup.

If the Colts are able to do damage on the scoreboard (and/or if the Colts are able to continue their strong run defense), Watson will also have a shot at a big day as this offense opens up. Behind Watson and Hopkins, you’re hoping that Demaryius trips into another couple touchdowns, or — if he plays — you’re hoping that Coutee lasts through the game. This team’s three-way timeshare at tight end has also made it impossible to reliably bet on any of these guys.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

While the Colts have a top offense, there are only a couple pieces that really stand out, as Mack is facing a tough matchup, and “upside” volume in this passing attack is thin behind Ebron and Hilton.

Even at his price hike, Ebron stands out. He’ll be at risk of a 4-40-0 game if the Colts lean on the run (that’s the basic line he posted in all three games earlier in the year that Doyle missed and that Hilton played), but with Indy likely to lean on the pass this week, the chances of a double-digit target game for Ebron in this soft matchup make him appealing.

Hilton joins Ebron as an appealing play. He has a weak floor for his price, but his upside is among the highest on the slate at the wide receiver position, and the likely pass-heavy nature of this game should give him a solid shot at hitting.

Luck is also in play for me in tourneys for the monster upside he has shown through much of the year.

With the Texans’ running backs providing little in the pass game beyond “hoping for a broken play,” and with this offense belonging primarily to the run game over the last two months, it’s difficult to bet on this unit with absolute confidence. The running backs carry low floors, and volume in this passing attack has been a bit thin for trying to capture the slate-breaking scores we would optimally be targeting at quarterback and high-priced wide receiver. This offense is best reserved for tourneys — in a bet that the Colts do well through the air, and that the Texans respond by opening up on their side of the ball. From a volume perspective, it would technically make the most sense to only bet on Watson and Hopkins in large-field tourneys — but realistically, it won’t be surprising if this game turns into a shootout; and if it does, Watson/Hopkins would carry as much upside as any players on the slate. I like them as iffy-floor, monster-ceiling bets in tourneys of all shapes and sizes.


Kickoff Sunday, Dec 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Patriots (
29.25) at

Dolphins (
20.25)

Over/Under 49.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Patriots Run D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
3rd DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
13th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards per pass
Dolphins Run D
21st DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
23rd DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
18th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
29th DVOA/28th Yards per pass

PATRIOTS // DOLPHINS OVERVIEW

It may not seem like it at first glance — given that the Dolphins rank bottom five in most major offensive categories and bottom half of the league in most major defensive categories — but this is actually an important game for the playoff race. The 9-3 Patriots are chasing the 10-2 Chiefs for the number one seed (while trying to hold off the 9-3 Texans, over whom they have the head-to-head tiebreaker), while the 6-6 Dolphins are still in contention for the final Wild Card spot. Miami has gone 1-4 without Ryan Tannehill and 5-2 with Tannehill (which has little to do with Tannehill himself, and more to do with the way they are able to play when Tannehill is under center). The Dolphins are also 1-5 on the road but 5-1 at home. Vegas opened this game with an Over/Under of 48.0 — with the visiting Patriots installed as 10.0 point favorites. This game was quickly bet down to 47.0 and Patriots -7.5.

PATRIOTS PASS OFFENSE

Miami has been a house of horrors for the Patriots in recent years, with this team going 1-4 in Miami across their last five games, and with Tom Brady posting the following stat lines (beginning with the most recent):

24 of 43 (55.8%) // 233 yards // one touchdown // two interceptions
25 of 33 (75.8%) // 276 yards // three touchdowns // zero interceptions (win)
12 of 21 (57.1%) // 134 yards // zero touchdowns // zero interceptions
29 of 56 (51.8%) // 249 yards // one touchdown // zero interceptions
34 of 55 (61.8%) // 364 yards // two touchdowns // zero interceptions

Late-season trips to Miami have especially given the Patriots fits — and the current forecast for Sunday in Miami is 81 degrees with 80% humidity. (Current weather in Foxborough :: 34 degrees // 37% humidity.)

The Dolphins have been below-average defending the pass this year (28th in yards allowed per pass attempt // a league-average catch rate // the fifth deepest aDOT and third highest YAC/R rate allowed), but with this team’s ball-hawking style (second in the NFL in interceptions) and their difficulties stopping the run, most opponents have gone extremely run-heavy in this matchup. Only two teams have faced a higher rush play rate than Miami, and with the Patriots now carrying three healthy backs, a fair expectation in this spot is a hurry-up approach (the Patriots already rank third in the league in pace of play) that tries to rotate backs and tire out the Miami defense. Passing should build off play-action; and if Brady throws 30 to 35 times, a good eight to 12 of these passes will likely go to running backs.

Julian Edelman is in a bounce-back spot against a Miami defense that has been hammered over the short middle this year, drawing a bottom eight DVOA grade from Football Outsiders in this area of the field. Edelman has target counts this year with Gronk on the field of 9 // 7 // 10 // 5 // 8. Another eight to 10 looks in this spot is a fair bet.

Josh Gordon has seen his matchup on the outside improve with stud Dolphins corner Xavien Howard week to week with a knee issue. Gordon has seen only five and three targets the last two weeks with Gronk returning (he had target counts of 4 // 9 // 6 earlier in the year when sharing the field with Edelman and Gronk), making him more boom/bust at his price tag than high-floor/high-ceiling. Two of his three targets last week came more than 15 yards downfield, and three of his five targets the week before came at 15+ yards, so he does still carry some upside on his limited looks.

Rob Gronkowski enters a middling tight end matchup with target counts in his games with Edelman and Gordon of 7 // 4 // 8 // 7 // 4. He is very clearly not moving with the same quickness that he had earlier in his career, but he is still a big body in the end zone, and the Dolphins have allowed the third most tight end touchdowns in the NFL.

PATRIOTS RUN OFFENSE

Miami has been one of the weakest run defenses in the NFL this year, ranking 27th in yards allowed per carry and inviting teams to run on them on film, with too many big holes at the point of attack and with an inability to get off blocks on the second level. The Dolphins rank 23rd in Football Outsiders’ second level metrics and 29th in open field metrics. It is unsurprising that the Dolphins have faced the third most rush attempts in the NFL. When these teams played in Week 4, the Patriots ran the ball 37 times and threw the ball 35 times. Sony Michel accounted for 112 yards and a touchdown on the ground. James White accounted for 44 yards and a touchdown on the ground and added 8-68-1 through the air.

This backfield is complicated by the healthy return of Rex Burkhead. Burkhead played only 17 of 74 snaps last week; but as noted heading into last week: any back adding a third body to a rotation is going to have an impact. Burkhead took seven carries and saw two targets. White saw six carries and nine targets. Michel saw 17 carries and one target.

The Patriots are highly likely to lean on the run in this spot, as this is the best way to beat the Dolphins, and this is the best way to offset the issues Brady has had over the years in Miami. It is fairly safe to pencil in Michel for 16+ carries even with Burkhead active, and it is fairly safe to give White four to six carries and six to eight targets. Either guy can hit on these less-than-elite workloads, especially in this matchup (and there is certainly opportunity for game flow to boost the workload of one of these guys). But price-considered floor needs to be bumped down for the uncertainty presented by the timeshare nature of this backfield.

DOLPHINS PASS OFFENSE

Given the Patriots’ history in Miami, and given that the best way to attack the Dolphins is on the ground, it seems unlikely that New England will play into the Dolphins’ hands and open things up with a downfield-attacking game plan. (This approach can bury the Dolphins quickly if it works; but the Dolphins’ ability to force turnovers when teams take to the air has allowed them to swing a number of games in their favor and scrape together a 6-6 record with a clearly below-average team.) Barring a defensive touchdown for the Patriots or a couple fluky-quick scores, this game should remain close enough for Miami to lean on the run, sticking with the approach that has allowed them to (incredibly) go 5-2 with Ryan Tannehill under center (after going 10-6 and reaching the playoffs under Tannehill in 2016 with this approach). Through seven starts, Tannehill has topped 25 pass attempts only twice, and he has topped 28 pass attempts only once. A full 20% of his passes this year have gone to running back Kenyan Drake — further limiting the opportunities for his wide receivers.

If you are set on using a Dolphins receiver, we should see DeVante Parker shadowed by Stephon Gilmore, with Kenny Stills taking on plenty of Jason McCourty. While cornerback matchups can often be overblown (1. there are not many true shutdown corners in the NFL // 2. most teams mix up coverages enough that a particular wide receiver will only see a particular corner a portion of the time), the Patriots match up their corners on individual receivers as much as any team in the league, and both Gilmore and McCourty have been legitimately challenging matchups for wide receivers all year. Gilmore — while typically trailing an opponent’s top receiver — has allowed a completion rate of only 47.0% on passes thrown into his coverage. McCourty has allowed a completion rate of 55.6%. Gilmore has earned PFF’s number two coverage grade on the year among qualified corners. McCourty sits at number seven — in between Denzel Ward and Patrick Peterson. Both Parker and Stills are long-shot plays in this low-volume passing attack, in a difficult matchup.

If Danny Amendola returns this week, he’ll soak up some looks over the middle against his old team. He would likely need a multi-touchdown game in order to really move the needle.

DOLPHINS RUN OFFENSE

It has been difficult to rack up fantasy points on the ground against the Patriots this year, as this team ranks only middle of the pack in yards allowed per carry…but for the third consecutive year, they have refused to let teams score on the ground, instead forcing them to win through the air when they get close to the end zone. In both 2016 and 2017, no team in football allowed fewer rushing touchdowns to running backs than the Patriots. Twelve games into 2018, only the Jags rank ahead of the Pats in this category. This is a tough setup for Frank Gore, who has only 11 catches all year and only two games over 67 rushing yards. As a “yardage and touchdown” back, Gore has failed badly in the touchdown department, scoring only once on the year.

The better matchup in this spot goes to Kenyan Drake, who the Dolphins have refused to feature all year, but who has at least remained involved in the pass game, with recent target counts of 6 // 8 // 2 // 6 // 2 // 6 // 4. He adds around six to eight carries most games and has scored eight touchdowns on the year (with four of them coming through the air). With stellar play in the secondary, New England has faced the third most running back targets and allowed the fourth most running back receptions in the league, creating a path to upside for Drake (along with his obviously low floor).

JM’S INTERPRETATION

The Patriots’ passing attack is “bet on talent in tourneys” more than anything else. In a tough road game, against a team that the Patriots will likely attack on the ground, locked-in floor is thin outside of Edelman, and Edelman’s non-outlier ceiling is low compared to the guys priced around him. His price is most palatable on FanDuel, but his game is not as valuable in half-PPR scoring. Everyone in this passing attack would be reserved for tourneys only for me; and while this well-designed offense with multiple upside pieces could easily produce a viable tourney score or two, none of these guys will be a priority for me on a 13-game slate.

The backfield for the Pats is quite a bit more intriguing, and if Burkhead had not returned I would likely have had strong interest in White and Michel. All three guys will see touches this week, and it is likely that the Patriots run the ball plenty in this spot. Michel is a yardage-and-touchdown back, but his days of 24+ carries may be over now that Burkhead is back, requiring him to post strong efficiency on whatever touches he sees. White will remain a vital piece in the pass game and will take a few carries of his own. Burkhead will spell both guys and could actually become viable himself — at his low price — with a broken play or a touchdown (though either of those would be tremendously difficult to bet on).

With the Dolphins ranked 25th in points per game, 29th in yards per game, 29th in drive success rate, and 30th in three-and-out rate, nothing stands out on their side of the ball. In much the same way Corey Davis beat this matchup in a broken offense, it’s not crazy to think that Parker could see eight or nine looks and post a solid game, or that Stills could do damage on his five to six looks. Obviously, however, this is an outlier bet. I won’t be making it myself.

The same goes for shots on the Dolphins’ backfield. Drake is at least interesting in this spot, but there are safer, higher-upside plays on the slate.


Kickoff Sunday, Dec 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Saints (
31.75) at

Bucs (
22.25)

Over/Under 54.0

Tweet
Notes

Key Matchups
Saints Run D
25th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
29th DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
11th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
15th DVOA/6th Yards per pass
Buccaneers Run D
11th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
13th DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
15th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
20th DVOA/22nd Yards per pass

SAINTS // BUCS OVERVIEW

Saints // Bucs gives us a rematch of the Saints’ first loss on the year — a Week 1, 40-48 shocker at home against Tampa. These teams have gone in opposite directions since then, with the Saints sitting at 10-2 atop the NFC South, and with the Bucs playing for pride right now at 5-7. The Bucs are one of the rare “losing record teams” that continues to show obvious improvement every week. They opened this game as 10 point underdogs, but this mark was quickly bet down to eight. This game opened with an Over/Under of 57.5, which has since dropped to 55.5. Each of these teams has improved on defense throughout the year, and each offense has shifted since the start of the season to a more conservative style (the Saints going run-heavy, the Bucs taking away some of the aggressive downfield throws they were so focused on for most of the year). This should still be a fairly high-scoring affair, but a back-and-forth slug-fest like that 88-point shootout in Week 1 is unlikely to be in the cards.

SAINTS PASS OFFENSE

The Buccaneers’ pass defense has been steadily improving under Mark Duffner, who has called more aggressive coverage packages from time to time (no longer allowing teams to catch everything thrown their way and simply aiming to tackle after the catch) — and who has also, more importantly, placed a heavy emphasis on technique, execution, and fundamentals for this Bucs squad, which has led to far fewer breakdowns and to fewer big plays. In the Bucs’ last five games, no wide receiver has topped 90 yards against them. This drop in spiked wide receiver weeks against the Bucs has coincided with a recent slide in their run defense — which has led to teams attacking them more heavily on the ground. In four of the Bucs’ last five games, the opposing quarterback has thrown the ball 32 or fewer times.

The Saints (as noted ad nauseum in this space) are a run-heavy team, with Drew Brees failing to top even 30 pass attempts in all but one of the eight games in which Mark Ingram has played. (That one game came in the epic, 80-point shootout against the Rams. Brees threw only 36 times in that one.) Brees’ incredible accuracy and the explosive nature of this offense has still allowed him to top 300 yards in three of these eight games, but he also has four games in this stretch of 212 or fewer passing yards.

This low-volume approach has had a negative impact on the upside of Michael Thomas, who has seen target counts since Ingram’s return of 5 // 9 // 6 // 15 // 8 // 4 // 6 // 8. That 15-target game came against the Rams, which was also his only game in this stretch above 92 receiving yards. In six of the eight games since Ingram returned, Thomas has failed to post a score that would justify his still-elevated price. It seems that people are still writing off Thomas’ “down” games as the fluky ones, as his ownership continues to outpace his production. From a raw-projections standpoint, of course: Thomas’ red zone role (fourth in the NFL in red zone targets // second in targets inside the 10) gives him a clear shot every week at a solid game, with potential for a multi-score game or a broken play to make him useful at his price tag. The price-considered floor is lower than most want to acknowledge, but there are still paths to ceiling.

The rest of this passing attack has been maddeningly difficult to target, as Tre’Quan Smith unsurprisingly bookended his 13-target game with games of zero targets and one target — while guys like Keith Kirkwood (two catches, two touchdowns across the last two weeks), Austin Carr (two catches, two touchdowns across the last three weeks), and Tommylee Lewis (one catch, one touchdown across the last two weeks) continue to provide little in the yardage department while taking away scores from the more valuable fantasy plays on this team. From a real-life perspective, this is one of the most enjoyable offenses to watch; but it is difficult to comfortably bet on it in fantasy. Wrapping up this unit is the Saints’ three-way timeshare at tight end, in which Dan Arnold ran nine routes in Week 13, while Benjamin Watson and Josh Hill each ran 10 routes. The best bet on this passing attack — away from Thomas — is likely on the upside of Tre’Quan (whose zero-point floor also remains in place) or on the efficiency of Brees.

SAINTS RUN OFFENSE

While the Bucs’ pass defense has improved in recent weeks, their run defense has shown major cracks. Starting in Week 8, the Bucs have recently given up rushing lines of 21-123-2 to Joe Mixon (who added 3-15-0 through the air), 17-79-2 to Christian McCaffrey (who added 5-78-0 through the air), 19-68-0 to Adrian Peterson, 27-142-2 to Saquon Barkley (who added 2-10-1 through the air), 14-106-0 to Matt Breida (who added 3-34-0 through the air), and last week’s 10-106-0 line to Christian McCaffrey (who added another 9-55-1 through the air). As a team, the Saints rank fourth in rushing attempts and ninth in rushing yards, and they should lean heavily on Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram this week.

Here are the updated snap numbers for Kamara // Ingram since the latter’s return:

Kamara — 31 // 39 // 38 // 41 // 34 // 44 // 37 // 36
Ingram — 36 // 35 // 23 // 34 // 31 // 30 // 27 // 21

Kamara has 105 carries and 37 targets in this stretch. Ingram has 97 carries and 18 targets.

Ingram has seen his snaps scaled back in recent weeks, though his touches only dipped in the tough matchup against the Cowboys’ stout run defense last week. While Ingram is sensitive to game flow, he can typically be penciled in for 12 to 14 carries and two to three targets, giving him floor concerns but some upside in this offense. He’ll likely disappoint if he fails to find the end zone. He’ll be a nice piece with a multi-score game.

Since Ingram returned, Kamara has posted a price-considered dud in five of eight games — and FOMO ownership has kept his price high. In last week’s game against the Cowboys, Kamara saw a massive 11 targets, but in six of his previous seven games, he had five or fewer targets. Four or five targets is a comfortable projection for Kamara, to go with his comfortable range of 12 to 14 carries. Given his outsized talent, this is enough work for him to post a top score — but the price-considered floor remains a concern.

BUCS PASS OFFENSE

With the Saints ranking first in the NFL in drive success rate on offense and sticking heavily to the run, they have been able to shorten games in a big way this year — ranking third in time of possession and allowing the second fewest opponent plays per game. Even with teams taking to the air against the Saints at the third highest rate in football, this team has faced fewer pass attempts than 19 others.

The Bucs counteract this somewhat by running the second most plays per game in the league (a byproduct of their leaky defense and their pass-heavy offense). It could prove difficult for Jameis Winston to pop off for 40+ pass attempts, but somewhere in the range of 33 to 38 pass attempts is a comfortable starting point in projecting him and his wide receivers — against a Saints defense that has allowed a 7% increase on the league-average catch rate, and that ranks 29th in yards allowed per pass attempt.

It is worth noting that Jameis threw zero passes last week that traveled more than 20 yards downfield — which has been a theme for this team since they returned Jameis to the starting job, taking away some of the downfield throws that made this attack so exciting earlier in the year. If DeSean Jackson misses again (as he currently appears set to do), it will once again be Evans // Godwin // Humphries.

Mike Evans should be trailed by Marshon Lattimore — who has been strong this year, but not impossible, allowing 9.8 yards per pass attempt into his coverage. This is a matchup Evans can win if the targets are there — though this caveat has become a concern lately, with recent target counts of 6 // 7 // 8 // 6. As noted last week: Evans is averaging over 17 yards per reception, and he has topped 100 yards in six of the eight games this year in which he has cracked just six catches. With uncertain targets and an up-and-down connection with Jameis, he’s a high-variance play, but the upside is there.

The 5-101-1 line that Chris Godwin posted last week looks a bit better than it was, as he saw only six targets, and almost 40 of his yards came on a long YAC play — which is obviously less repeatable than a long downfield reception. Godwin’s route tree was actually not changed much last week in the absence of DJax, as he was used primarily as an intermediate weapon, further highlighting the subtle shifts this offense has made. On a more positive note: Godwin played 80% of the Bucs’ snaps last week and ran only one fewer pass route than Evans. If this team climbs back up to the 35 to 38 pass attempt range (after throwing only 30 times last week), Godwin should be able to notch seven to nine targets, giving him a clear shot at something like a 6-70-0 line, with yardage and scoring upside from there.

Adam Humphries continues to soak up underneath looks as a favorite outlet for Jameis, and he now has eight or more targets in four of his last seven games in this offense. With a touchdown in three straight games, Humphries’ price has climbed a bit high for his floor on all sites — but his role in this offense is legitimate enough that he is not going to bust (three to five catches for 40 to 60 yards still won’t kill you at his price), and his touchdown-driven ceiling still gives him enough upside to matter.

This passing attack wraps up with touchdown-or-bust tight end Cameron Brate. Brate scored two weeks ago and failed to connect on an end zone target last week, so you’re not drawing dead here — but his best yardage game on the year is 36, making it important for him to score.

BUCS RUN OFFENSE

One of the biggest mismatches on the slate comes between a Saints run defense that has shut down all but the best units in the NFL, and that ranks first in the league in yards allowed per carry, going up against a Buccaneers unit that ranks 30th in yards per carry and 26th in running back rushing yards per game. The Saints face the third highest pass play rate in the NFL, and the Bucs throw the ball at the eighth highest rate. Peyton Barber has only 13 catches on the season, and he has not yet topped 24 receiving yards. He’ll need multiple broken plays or a multi-touchdown game to matter on this slate.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

The Saints’ offense is surprisingly difficult to bet on at this point, with Ingram and Kamara killing off each other’s upside (but both priced higher than their workloads warrant), and with Michael Thomas relying heavily on touchdowns for his production. All three of these guys have strong, raw upside — but all three are ultimately overpriced for A) their respective floors, and B) their chances of reaching their ceiling. To frame that another way: it’s never a surprise when one of these guys has a big game; but given the way this offense is being called, a big, price-considered game is not the likeliest scenario — and with these guys still carrying solid ownership, I’d much rather bet on a higher floor/ceiling play in these price ranges myself.

I don’t have interest in the Bucs’ backfield, and I’ll likely look for my upside away from Mike Evans this week (he can match or pass the guys priced around him, but his floor if he misses is much lower than what most of those other options carry), but I will still have interest in Godwin, whose price has not yet risen to where it should be. He has a solid floor for the price, and if he sees eight or nine targets this week he could be a really nice upside piece. Humphries is in play behind Godwin as a solid floor piece with decent upside — though his price is starting to rise a bit high for his likeliest range. Jameis — as has been the case all year for “Tampa QB” — is in play for his upside as well.


Kickoff Sunday, Dec 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Giants (
21.75) at

WFT (
18.75)

Over/Under 40.5

Tweet
Notes

Key Matchups
Giants Run D
29th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
16th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
19th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
27th DVOA/27th Yards per pass
Commanders Run D
16th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
31st DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
32nd DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
30th DVOA/30th Yards per pass

GIANTS // REDSKINS OVERVIEW

The attention in the NFC East has shifted hard away from the Redskins, with all eyes now on the Eagles // Cowboys game taking place later in the day. Washington is still 6-6 — but much like the Bengals in the AFC, it has felt for weeks like the Redskins’ season is over. An injury to number two quarterback Colt McCoy enhances this feeling.

Neither of these teams has been good on offense this year. Both rank in the bottom half of the league in drive success rate, yards per game, points per game, and red zone touchdown percentage. Each team is unable to attack downfield in the passing game, and neither team has a quarterback who can engineer quick, fluid drives. This game should be slow-moving, with the Giants’ playmakers the only hope for this game to turn into something intriguing. Giants // Redskins carries an early-week Over/Under of only 41.0, with the Giants installed as 3.5 point favorites.

GIANTS PASS OFFENSE

Washington’s pass defense has been weak against wide receivers this year — particularly struggling since Quinton Dunbar began dealing with injuries (missing some games and playing hurt in others). The Redskins have compensated somewhat by having Josh Norman travel with top receivers from time to time, but he still plays his side over 70% of the time — and he has always been more notable for his well-timed aggressiveness than for his sticky coverage and shutdown ability. Since Odell Beckham went 8-136-0 vs the Redskins in Week 8, this secondary has allowed :: Julio Jones to go 7-121-1 // Chris Godwin to go 7-103-0 // Amari Cooper to go 8-180-2 // Golden Tate to go 7-85-1. These four receivers have combined to catch 29 of 33 targets (87.9%). (Mixed in there was a low-volume pass game from the Texans, in which DeAndre Hopkins went only 5-56-1, but saw only six targets.)

Playing to the Giants’ favor is the style of the Redskins’ defense, which has forced the third shallowest average depth of target in the league, but has allowed an above-average catch rate and the third worst YAC per reception rate in the NFL. Washington has allowed the eighth most receptions to wide receivers, the 10th most touchdowns, and the third most yards.

Working against the Giants is Eli Manning, who has attempted only 12 total passes in his last four games that have traveled 20+ yards downfield. Eli has completed only four of these passes, with one interception.

The focal point of this passing attack has been Beckham, who trails only Julio in percentage share of team air yards. In spite of his recent lackluster stat lines (four straight games of 85 or fewer yards), OBJ has seen recent target counts of 11 // 11 // 11 // 4 // 9 // 9. He has nine or more targets in all but one game this year, and he should see similar usage in this spot. Beckham’s floor is being lowered by his attachment to Eli, but his ceiling is supported by his role and by his explosive after-catch ability. Betting on YAC introduces some variance, as it essentially requires a broken play in order to really pay off — but betting on YAC along with a big guaranteed workload is never a poor idea.

Behind Beckham (and Barkley), this offense has been unable to support any ancillary options, with Sterling Shepard failing to top even 40 yards in five straight games, and with the tight end position rarely yielding upside. A bet on Shepard is a bet on a broken play or an unexpected spike in usage. A bet on the tight end is a bet on four to seven targets in a middling matchup. There are definitely worse plays than Evan Engram or Rhett Ellison, but either guy would need a touchdown in order to prove worthwhile as the third or fourth option in this passing attack most plays.

GIANTS RUN OFFENSE

Washington continues to play non-elite, but slightly above-average run defense this year, allowing 4.37 yards per carry to running backs while allowing the ninth most receptions and the 14th most receiving yards to the position. Ultimately, this is about as middle-of-the-road as a matchup can get, which opens the door for a strong game from a player in Saquon Barkley who has recent touch counts of 22 // 24 // 29 // 20 // 27. In spite of being held back by an offense that ranks bottom 10 in touchdowns and an offensive line that ranks bottom 10 in adjusted line yards, Barkley has 12 touchdowns on the season and has gone for 140 or more all-purpose yards in three consecutive games. His floor is theoretically lowered by the bad offense he is attached to, but 12 games into the season this has only shown up in the box score once (in Week 10 against San Francisco). That game (20-67-0 on the ground, 4-33-0 through the air) should be held in consideration — but Saquon’s ceiling is unaffected, and his chances of reaching his ceiling in this spot are higher than his chances of falling to his floor.

REDSKINS PASS OFFENSE

The Giants’ pass defense has been one of the most middling units in the league — ranking 17th in yards allowed per pass attempt, while neither raising nor lowering expectations on any position through the air. As noted throughout the last month: this team is good in the red zone (eighth lowest opponent red zone touchdown rate // third fewest passing touchdowns allowed), but they are otherwise perfectly attackable. Any difficulties in the pass game for Washington are less likely to arise from the Giants than they are to arise from within. The Redskins are down to third-string signal-caller Mark Sanchez, who barely belongs on an NFL sideline, let alone on an NFL field. The last time Sanchez saw any significant time was in 2015 with the Eagles, when he notched only 6.77 yards per pass attempt across three games. In relief of Colt McCoy on Monday night, Sanchez managed only 100 yards on 21 pass attempts — looking visibly terrified of attacking downfield, and settling for short passes and checkdowns at a rate that would make even Alex Smith embarrassed. Sanchez will need a shift in play style to support any viable pass catchers moving forward (in an offense that has not produced viable pass catchers all year).

If you are set on going here: Jamison Crowder saw four targets (4-36-0) in his first game since Week 5 and is likely to become one of Sanchez’ favorite targets, given his underneath role in this offense. Jordan Reed saw his “upside” looks disappear once Sanchez took the field last week, gaining only 21 yards on four receptions, but he should find himself in the five to eight target range if the Redskins are forced to pass the ball this week. Josh Doctson or Vernon Davis would need a big play or a multi-touchdown game in order to become viable on the Main Slate.

REDSKINS RUN OFFENSE

Washington is going to continue trying to win games on the ground — and while the matchup is middling against a Giants run defense that has allowed 4.38 yards per carry and the sixth most running back touchdowns in the NFL, there will be concern moving forward that Adrian Peterson will face primarily eight-man boxes with Sanchez under center. Peterson’s lack of pass game involvement (and poor pass protection) further telegraphs to defenses that Washington is likely to run when he is on the field — and the Giants will surely feel comfortable betting on their ability to stop Sanchez with one-on-one coverage throughout most of this game in order to ensure the Redskins’ ageless back does not beat them. Peterson profiles as a yardage-and-touchdown back who may struggle for per-play efficiency. He’ll likely need one of his long touchdown runs in order to achieve relevance on this slate.

If New York takes a big lead in this one, Chris Thompson (five targets last week) could see a spike to six to eight targets, giving him an outside chance at hitting — though there are obviously far less speculative plays on the slate.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

The Giants’ offense is inherently risky — but this team does boast two elite players (OBJ and Saquon) who see elite usage, and who are able to make things happen on their own. Each of these guys stands out to me this week for upside, and while the price-considered floor is a bit iffy in this offense, the usage, talent, and middling-at-worst matchup make it likely that each guy blows past his floor. I’m less likely to pay up for OBJ, simply because explosive, multi-use backs are so much more consistently valuable than wide receivers, but each guy will definitely be in consideration for me this week.

On a 13-game slate, the only real justification for picking and choosing pieces on a Mark Sanchez offense (an offense that was not even viable with Alex Smith under center) would be something like this :: “It’s the NFL, crazy things can happen, and no one will be looking here.” These are all bad plays on paper, but perhaps one out of every 10 games in this spot, a player on Washington would post a big enough score to be useful on this Main Slate. There is no telling who that player might be.


Kickoff Sunday, Dec 9th 1:00pm Eastern

Jets (
16.25) at

Bills (
20.75)

Over/Under 37.0

Tweet
Notes

Key Matchups
Jets Run D
14th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
5th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
3rd DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per pass
Bills Run D
18th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
32nd DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
9th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
31st DVOA/31st Yards per pass

JETS // BILLS OVERVIEW

This game in Buffalo will likely go overlooked by the masses (as tends to be the case with games played in Buffalo — or in any corners of the AFC East that do not belong to New England), but there are actually a few interesting pieces, especially in tourneys, in this game between the 3-9 Jets and the 4-8 (but consistently improving) Bills. When these teams met a few weeks ago in New York, the Bills walloped the Jets 41-10 with Matt Barkley under center. Since then, the Bills defeated the Jaguars 24-21 and were a dropped Charles Clay touchdown shy of beating the Dolphins in Miami. If Sam Darnold returns this week (as is currently expected), the story of this game will be the two rookie quarterbacks. But the bigger story is the Bills’ offense and what they are trying to do at the moment.

This game has opened with a 38.0 point Over/Under that will make it invisible to most. The Bills have been installed as slim 3.0 point favorites to kick off the week.

JETS PASS OFFENSE

This is a tough spot for Sam Darnold in his expected return, on the road against a Buffalo pass defense that has forced the sixth shallowest aDOT in the NFL, while allowing a below-average catch rate and shaving over 10% off the league-average YAC/R rate. The Ravens are the only team in football allowing fewer yards per pass attempt than the Bills. The last time we saw Darnold was in Week 9 against Miami — when Darnold went 0 for 7 on passes that traveled more than 15 yards downfield, with three interceptions on those throws. The Jets are not forcing Darnold to keep everything short — but for the most part, they have been one of the most horizontal offenses in the NFL, and Darnold’s downfield shots have mostly been lost causes. Part of this is a playbook that has gotten less and less creative throughout the season. A larger part of this has been one of the worst supporting casts in the NFL. Darnold has topped 229 passing yards only once since Week 2. If Darnold misses another week, McCown will (surprisingly) carry one of the the lowest aDOTs in the entire NFL into this difficult road matchup. McCown managed to pile up 276 yards while chasing points against New England, but he has otherwise gone for 135 yards and 128 yards in his starts.

The best way to attack the Bills has been on passes of 15+ yards, where this team has had occasional lapses. This further complicates things for this short-area passing attack.

If you are set on going to this offense, your best bet for upside is to hope that McCown plays, and to then bet on the downfield looks that Robby Anderson is seeing. Last week, Anderson went only 4-48-0, but he saw seven targets, including two that traveled more than 30 yards downfield. The downfield connections have simply not been there for Anderson in an offense that is not doing enough to get pass catchers open, but he always has outside potential to hit for a long play or two.

Tre’Davious White is likeliest to shadow Quincy Enunwa (if the Bills bother having him shadow at all). Enunwa continues to play limited snaps in the slot with Jermaine Kearse on the field (82 perimeter snaps the last two weeks // 37 slot snaps, per PFF), which has limited his efficiency in this offense. A bet on Enunwa is a bet on a broken play, or on this offense putting together the pieces in a tough road environment.

Kearse has been maddeningly ineffective in the slot, hauling in 14 of 38 targets (36.8%) across his last six games.

This passing attack wraps up with Chris Herndon, who is finally seeing heavy playing time, with 51 and 48 offensive snaps across his last two games. Herndon has quietly seen four or more targets in four consecutive games. He runs into a tough matchup here against a Bills team that has allowed the second fewest tight end receptions in the league.

JETS RUN OFFENSE

The Bills have also been tough to run on, allowing the ninth fewest yards per carry — though from a “path of least resistance” standpoint, the way to attack this team is on the ground, and with this game likely to remain somewhat close, we should expect the Jets to play run-heavy football. Even with a 3-9 record and consistent negative game scripts, the Jets rank 18th in pass play rate.

In Jets wins and one-score games this year, Isaiah Crowell has touch counts of 10 // 14 // 18 // 16 // 15 // 14 // 25. His 25 touches last week obviously pop off the page as an outlier, but another 14 to 16 touches is a fair bet if you want to take a shot on Crow notching one of his random blowup games in this spot. He has topped 40 rushing yards only three times all season — but those three times, he went for 102 // 219 // 98.

Behind Crowell, Elijah McGuire and Trenton Cannon have been splitting scraps, giving each a back-breaking floor with very narrow paths to upside.

BILLS PASS OFFENSE

The Jets have very quietly allowed the third lowest catch rate in the league this year, and they rank a respectable 11th in yards allowed per pass attempt. With the Jets playing plenty of man coverage, however, teams are attacking relentlessly with wide receivers. On the year, the Jets have faced the third most wide receiver targets and allowed the third most wide receiver catches and the fourth most wide receiver yards.

All of a sudden, the Bills have become an exciting (albeit high-variance and low-floor) passing offense, as this team is allowing Josh Allen to hammer downfield passes, and they cut Kelvin Benjamin this week — further signaling their commitment to Zay Jones and their other young receivers. Last week, Jones saw nine targets…and seven of these looks came 20 to 30 yards downfield — legitimately exciting usage for a player with a quality physical skill set. Zay has lined up in the slot on 29 plays each of the last two weeks (compared to 26 and 36 on the perimeter). We have been targeting slot receivers all year against the Jets, as this is where they have struggled the most. In Week 12, Julian Edelman went 4-84-1 against the Jets on only five targets. In Week 10, Zay Jones did most of his damage against the Jets from the slot. In Week 9, Danny Amendola was the most effective Dolphins receiver in this matchup. In Week 8, Anthony Miller, Taylor Gabriel, and Josh Bellamy all made impact plays from the slot. In Week 7, Adam Thielen destroyed this team playing mostly in the slot while Stefon Diggs was shut down on the outside. And in Week 6, it was Chester Rogers from the slot for the Colts.

Last week, the Bills fed another four passes to speedster Robert Foster — who will be given a chance to hit each week, as a zero-floor, high point-per-dollar upside play. He went 1-27-0 last week on his four looks, but he went 2-94-1 and 3-105-0 the previous two weeks. Second-year speed threat Isaiah McKenzie was fed four targets (a pair of short targets and a pair of intermediate crossing routes that he ran out of the slot), and with the Bills letting Kelvin Benjamin go, McKenzie could be in line for more snaps after playing 50% last week.

The floor on this inefficient passing attack is low, but with Josh Allen throwing a whopping 16 of his 33 passes more than 15 yards downfield last week there is true and honest upside here. Allen added 135 yards on the ground on nine carries (one week after going for 99 yards on 13 carries). This team is not going to become a pass-heavy unit (even last week, they threw the ball on just over 50% of their plays), but the Jets are allowing the fifth most opponent plays per game, and it won’t be surprising for Allen to get in another 28 to 33 pass attempts in this one.

BILLS RUN OFFENSE

With Allen taking over the run game, LeSean McCoy has taken a backseat the last couple weeks, carrying the ball 17 and 15 times — with last week’s 15-carry game coming in a spot in which the Bills ran 72 plays in all. McCoy has topped 17 carries only twice this year, and he has topped 100 yards only once — though that 100-yard game came against the Jets in Week 10. McCoy saw 26 carries that game with Matt Barkley unable to steal away looks on the ground, so a safer projection here is 15 to 18 carries and his standard one to four targets. McCoy is still running behind a line that ranks bottom eight in adjusted line yards, but the Jets have been a middling run game matchup (18th in yards allowed per carry), and while the floor is low here (as is the case with all players in this offense), it won’t exactly be a shock if Shady hits for a long run or a touchdown, keeping him in the low-floor tourney conversation.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

There is nothing on the Jets that draws my eye in this tough matchup on the road. With 13 games on the Main Slate, I’ll be looking for better spots than this.

The Bills, on the other hand, are surprising me a bit. Taking away the Bills’ game against the Jags, Zay Jones has recent target counts of 8 // 6 // 11 // 9, and seven to 11 looks is a genuinely fair expectation here. With Josh Allen chucking often-inaccurate throws downfield, “seven to 11 looks” does not provide the floor it would with other quarterbacks (or with other wide receivers, for that matter), but the downfield nature of these looks makes Zay an exciting tourney option. Know the risks here, but the upside at the price is seriously worth paying attention to.

The same could be said — though to a lesser extent — for Foster and McKenzie. With Benjamin gone, these guys are going to see four or more targets most weeks, and Foster in particular will carry upside on these looks. Obviously, these are speculative tourney plays, but I’ll be happy to take large-field shots on this offense the rest of the way this year. With how aggressively this team is attacking, they are going to produce a few more cheap, big games down the stretch.

Attached to all these guys is Allen, who could legitimately dud even in this good matchup…but he carries nice upside with his rushing ability and his downfield throws. The entire Bills passing attack is large-field tourney viable for me, with at least Zay in the smaller-field conversation this week as well. Again: the floor needs to be noted on all these plays, but I think we see low ownership on an offense that is genuinely exciting right now in the way they are calling plays.

With more interest in the passing game than in the run game for the Bills, McCoy is taking a backseat for me, but it won’t be surprising if he strikes in this spot. I prefer to bet on safer running back plays and take my shots on high-target (or high-upside) players at wide receiver — but McCoy is not a bad play in a game that should favor the run. Worst case should be a respectable floor, and the ceiling is there.


Kickoff Sunday, Dec 9th 4:05pm Eastern

Bengals (
16) at

Chargers (
32.5)

Over/Under 48.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bengals Run D
28th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
28th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
21st DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
16th DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Chargers Run D
22nd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
22nd DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
30th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
14th DVOA/26th Yards per pass

BENGALS // CHARGERS OVERVIEW

When the Bengals headed into their Week 9 bye, this game looked very different on the schedule, as Cincinnati was sitting pretty at 5-3, and the Chargers were coming off their own bye in the midst of a four-game win streak with a 5-2 record. The Chargers extended that win streak to six before dropping a one-point game to the Broncos, and they currently control their own destiny for a playoff spot with a strong 9-3 record. The Bengals have lost four in a row since their bye, and they are essentially dead in the water in the AFC at 5-7, with no Andy Dalton and no A.J. Green. The Bengals have already fired their defensive coordinator, and they enter this game as massive 14.5 point underdogs (the largest spread on the slate). No team has a lower Vegas-implied total than the Bengals. Only two teams have a higher Vegas-implied total than the Chargers. Barring a complete breakdown by the Chargers, they will be in good position to control this game.

CHARGERS RUN OFFENSE

The days when we could target running backs against the Bengals at low ownership have long-since passed. Thirteen weeks into the season, the Bengals rank 24th in yards allowed per carry and have faced the most rush attempts in the NFL. With this team ranked 31st in drive success rate allowed and 26th in red zone touchdown rate allowed, they have managed to give up more running back touchdowns than any team in the league. The Raiders are the only team that has given up more rushing yards to running backs than the Bengals. Only six teams have allowed more receiving yards to backs.

Further benefitting the Chargers’ rushing attack here is the fact that their offense that ranked 30th in pass play rate before being forced to go pass-heavy in two of their last three games. As the largest favorite on this weekend’s slate, there is a good chance that we see another game for Philip Rivers under 30 pass attempts (which is where he has finished in six of his last eight games). The Chargers play at the slowest pace in the NFL and rank 29th in plays per game, but Cincy ranks 31st in time of possession and has allowed the second most opponent plays per game — which should add a few extra plays for this offense.

In last week’s game against the Steelers, Austin Ekeler dominated work in the first half — but after doing nothing for two-plus quarters and then dropping a screen pass in the second half, the Chargers plugged in seventh-round rookie Justin Jackson and watched him spark the offense. From that point forward, Jackson and Ekeler split time, with Ekeler playing in more passing situations and with Jackson carrying the load between the tackles. This week, head coach Anthony Lynn noted that Ekeler — as a core special teamer and a player they have used a lot at running back — is “wearing down,” and that they could use Jackson more. This comes across more as a good excuse to get Jackson involved on the ground than as the true reason for Ekeler to lose some work. The Chargers’ explosive change-of-pace back has looked more comfortable in that role than he has looked in his two stints this year as a lead back.

Ultimately, this still introduces some guesswork — but the likeliest setup here calls for Jackson and Ekeler to split work early in the game, with Jackson perhaps playing more snaps, but with Ekeler taking on a larger share of the passing work. In this scenario, Jackson would see more work as the game moves along and as the Chargers grind out the clock with a lead. There is also a chance that Jackson plays more of the Melvin Gordon role from the start, and that Ekeler returns to the role he has had throughout the year. Either way, the touches in this backfield will be valuable, in one of the top two or three matchups a running back can have.

CHARGERS PASS OFFENSE

The typically low-volume Chargers passing attack (pass attempt numbers for Rivers in his last eight games of 27 // 20 // 26 // 26 // 26 // 43 // 29 // 36 — with his 43 passes coming in a loss to the Broncos, and his 36 passes coming in comeback mode against the Steelers) is less exciting than the Chargers’ backfield. This has nothing to do with matchup, as the Bengals are adding 6.1% to the league-average aDOT and 2.4% to the league-average catch rate — ranking 26th in yards allowed per pass attempt and allowing the fifth most passing touchdowns in the league. Instead, it has to do with volume concerns in a game the Chargers should control. This team has shown a tendency to go run-heavy when playing with a lead, which could make it difficult for any of the players in this attack to reach their ceiling. If we assume expected game flow (i.e., a low-volume game from Rivers), here are the target counts on the Chargers in their six sub-30-pass games:

:: Keenan Allen — 9 // 6 // 5 // 10 // 9 // 7
:: Tyrell Williams — 3 // 4 // 4 // 3 // 6 // 0 (limited snaps)
:: Mike Williams — 4 // 4 // 3 // 3 // 0 // 4

Travis Benjamin has also mixed in for one to three targets in his healthy games. The tight ends typically combine for around two to four targets.

If you want to bet on this high-powered passing attack in this butter-soft matchup, the best bet for production is Allen — who will have a tough time producing an elite price-considered score, but whose chances of failing in this spot are also slim. He has a good shot at seven targets even in a low-volume game for this passing attack as a whole.

Behind Allen, Tyrell and Mike could be chased for their big-play upside.

The likeliest path to a big game from one of these pass catchers is for the Bengals to unexpectedly jump out to a lead; as such, the best way to bet on this passing attack is to build a roster that tells this story.

BENGALS PASS OFFENSE

Of course…there is a reason the Bengals opened as 14.5 point underdogs here, with the lowest Vegas-implied total on the slate. This team is missing A.J. Green and Andy Dalton, and they will be taking on a Chargers defense that has allowed the eighth fewest yards per pass attempt and the ninth fewest passing touchdowns (allowing only three more than league-leader Minnesota). With a tight, zone-heavy coverage scheme and an elite four-man pass rush, the Chargers are forcing the fourth shallowest aDOT in the NFL while shaving 2.2% off the league-average catch rate. Across the last couple months, the Chargers have erased lower-quality passing attacks, holding Josh Rosen to 105 yards, Case Keenum to 205 yards, Derek Carr to 243 yards, Marcus Mariota to 237 yards, and pre-Kitchens Baker Mayfield to 238 yards.

Since ascending to the starting quarterback spot, Driskel has not embarrassed himself, going 46 of 70 (65.7%), but managing only 5.9 yards per pass attempt.

The player with the clearest shot at upside is Tyler Boyd, who will no longer benefit from A.J. Green drawing attention away from him — but who does have a slim shot to benefit from the usage he is seeing in this offense, as Cincy is using running backs and C.J. Uzomah on short-area routes, allowing Driskel to take intermediate shots to Boyd. Last week, five of Boyd’s eight targets came more than 10 yards downfield — with his other looks coming on a pair of bubbles out of the slot and a slant from the perimeter. He has a difficult matchup in the slot against Desmond King, who quietly carries PFF’s top coverage grade among all qualified corners — but King is still allowing a 79.7% completion rate on passes thrown into his coverage, limiting upside by forcing everything underneath. Boyd carries the low floor that is attached to this offense, but as the only viable option in this passing attack, he’ll be given chances to win in this tough draw.

On the outside, it will be John Ross dealing with Casey Hayward. Ross has now caught only 16 of 39 targets on the year (41.0%), for 189 total yards. His five touchdowns have provided a slim path to non-disappointing days. His big-play upside is more than theoretical, but he’s nothing more than a guess-and-hope play.

Behind these two, Cody Core, Alex Erickson, and Auden Tate have combined over the last two weeks for seven catches for 59 yards, on 15 targets. Core saw the most snaps last week (35 out of 68) with Tate a healthy scratch. Tate saw seven targets in Week 12 while playing 32 out of 74 snaps. He turned these seven targets into two receptions. All of these guys are in a difficult spot against the Chargers, with a backup quarterback under center.

This attack wraps up with C.J. Uzomah, who has an awesome 23 targets across the last three weeks, but with only 14 catches for 113 yards to show for these looks. Uzomah is seeing almost nothing up the seam, with most of his targets coming within five yards of the line of scrimmage. He has a tough matchup this week with Derwin James, who has helped the Chargers allow the eighth fewest tight end receiving yards in the league.

BENGALS RUN OFFENSE

In three of the Bengals’ last four games, they have mixed in Giovani Bernard enough for Joe Mixon to become an iffy-floor play with only a thin shot at price-considered upside. In these Gio-usage games, Mixon has touch counts of 13 // 15 // 14. He’ll need to hold onto a larger share of the workload this week in order to be relevant compared to other players in his price range. His shot at upside is further compromised by the likelihood of game flow working against him.

Gio is also seeing too little work to matter, with 11 touches last week, but with touch counts of 4 // 6 // 2 in the weeks leading up to that game. With the Bengals struggling to control the clock or sustain drives this year, there is a chance that this team runs too few plays for anyone to really make a dent against this tough Chargers defense.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

The Chargers are the more appealing offense in this spot — with all eyes on the backfield. This has been one of the most effective and well-designed run games all season, and they will now be taking on one of the best running back matchups. Somewhere in the range of 30 to 35 combined touches for Jackson and Ekeler is not an outrageous projection, with Jackson likely to take on the larger share. There are some non-outlier scenarios in which Ekeler could actually outproduce Jackson — making him an interesting tourney name that most will overlook — but Jackson is the safer bet for a big workload, for clock-killing duties, and for goal-line work, and he should mix in two to four receptions along the way. I like him alongside Jaylen Samuels as one of the stronger salary-savers on the slate.

Outside of this backfield, I likely won’t bet on what I expect to be a low-volume passing attack, but there are paths to a strong game from Keenan Allen, and this offense would have a chance to smash if the Bengals somehow take (and hold) a lead. The game flow concerns in this spot could lower Allen’s ownership as well.

On the Bengals, I like Boyd more than I expected to, as the Bengals are continuing to hammer him with targets that provide opportunity for upside, and he could continue to rack up yards deep into this game if the Chargers take a big lead. He’s tourney-only in a tough matchup, at a still-elevated price, attached to a backup quarterback, but he has some clear paths to a strong game, and he’s a player most will overlook, making him a potential difference-maker if he does hit. The rest of this team is off the board for me. There are simply better plays on the slate.


Kickoff Sunday, Dec 9th 4:05pm Eastern

Broncos (
24.25) at

49ers (
21.25)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Broncos Run D
30th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
26th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
1st DVOA/1st Yards per pass
49ers Run D
15th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
14th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
4th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
18th DVOA/25th Yards per pass

BRONCOS // 49ERS OVERVIEW

The Broncos are currently in a four-way tie for seventh place in the AFC — one spot behind the 7-5 Ravens — and as noted last week, the Broncos’ schedule is mostly soft down the stretch, giving them a legitimate shot at playoff contention. Hurting this team’s chances of making the bracket this year are unfortunate injuries to star corner Chris Harris and number one receiver Emmanuel Sanders (who blew out his achilles in practice on Wednesday). This passing attack is piecing together spare parts behind Courtland Sutton, creating an interesting setup for this offense as a whole.

The Broncos will be taking on a 2-10 San Francisco team that would be happy for the season to end right now so they could put a stop to their own injury parade. This run-heavy unit is now playing without both of the running backs they envisioned splitting time between this year, and they have played almost the entire year without their starting quarterback as well.

Vegas has given this game a middling Over/Under of 45.5, with the Broncos installed as four point favorites on the road. This game is unlikely to draw much viewership attention, but it has a chance to produce a few DFS-viable games.

BRONCOS PASS OFFENSE

With Demaryius Thomas shipped off to Houston and Emmanuel Sanders on I.R., this passing attack belongs to Courtland Sutton at this point — with only Tim Patrick, DaeSean Hamilton, and Matt LaCosse behind him. The matchup is not a concern against a 49ers team that ranks 14th in yards allowed per pass attempt and 26th in DVOA against the pass. San Francisco has not provided a major boost to wide receivers in the receptions or yardage department, but they have allowed the most wide receiver touchdowns in the league.

Working against Sutton is his attachment to Case Keenum, who has a disappointing 62.3% completion rate on the year, and who has thrown for 205 or fewer yards in three straight games. The last time Keenum topped 300 yards was way back in Week 6. Sutton has recently seen target counts of 5 // 6 // 4 // 7. Sanders is leaving behind a massive 8.25 targets per game over the Broncos’ last four, creating opportunity for Sutton to potentially push for double-digit looks as the main beneficiary. Keenum and Sutton have connected on an impossibly low 47.5% of their passes this year, but Sutton’s awesome 19.9 yards per reception (first in the NFL) keeps his upside intact. He’s still somewhat boom/bust, but at his rate stats, five or six catches and a touchdown could lead to a monster day.

This team has ignored Patrick (zero targets last week on 21 snaps) and Hamilton (zero targets last week on 47 snaps). Hamilton will be first in line for a boost in usage, with potential for an immediate four to six looks per game (and with outside potential for him to climb even higher). This is not a game script that should force the Broncos to lean pass-heavy, but even if Keenum throws only 25 to 30 times, those passes will need to go somewhere.

Last week, that “somewhere” barely included LaCosse, who saw one target on 47 snaps, in an offense that has used tight ends liberally all year. With volume unlikely to be on the side of the Broncos’ passing attack, LaCosse maintains a low floor this week, but his ceiling is higher than last week’s usage-dud showed. He’s a solid pass-catching piece on a team in need of pass catchers, and he should post one or two useful games down the stretch.

BRONCOS RUN OFFENSE

Our boy Phillip Lindsay knocked the matchup out of the park last week against the Bengals, to the tune of 159 total yards and two touchdowns on only 20 touches. Terrifyingly for those of us who bet on Lindsay’s upside in that matchup: he played only 25 snaps last week (to 21 for Royce Freeman and 13 for Devontae Booker) — though the Broncos did at least make sure to get him the ball when he was on the field.

He enters a tougher matchup this week against a 49ers team that ranks 11th in yards allowed per carry and has allowed 474 fewer rushing yards to running backs than the Bengals have allowed. Ultimately, this is a middling matchup — though with Lindsay’s price shooting up and his snap share still scary low, he’s a bit overpriced across all sites right now for his actual workload. Last week was the first time this season he cracked 20 touches with Freeman on the field, while Freeman added 12 touches of his own. Working in Lindsay’s favor is the fact that this team wants to lean run-heavy (an approach they should emphasize even more heavily with the loss of Manny). Another 15 to 20 touches can be penciled in here. He has an outside shot at seeing a further spike in workload — though at this point, this would require a significant rise in snaps as well.

49ERS PASS OFFENSE

The Broncos lost star slot corner Chris Harris last week — and after cutting Adam Jones, they were left pulling Justin Simmons down from safety to cover the slot, while Bradley Roby and Isaac Yiadom handled the outside. Yiadom had seen limited action before last week, and he has only been targeted 18 times this year, but he has allowed 162 yards on these 18 targets, good for 9.0 yards per target. The Broncos still boast one of the fiercest pass rushes in the NFL, but the matchup is otherwise winnable for Nick Mullens and the 49ers.

With Mullens throwing his average pass only 6.8 yards downfield (only Derek Carr has a lower average intended air yards on the year), volume will be important for any San Francisco pass-catcher to have a clear shot at a strong game. In the two games in which Mullens did go pass-heavy (39 attempts in Week 10 against the Giants // 48 attempts in Week 13 at Seattle), targets among primary pass catchers on the 49ers looked like this:

:: George Kittle — 10 // 9
:: Dante Pettis — 6 // 7
:: Kendrick Bourne — 6 // 7
:: Marquise Goodwin — 5 // DNP

Right now, it appears that Garcon will miss another week, but Goodwin will return. In Week 10, this setup led to Bourne playing 69 snaps while Pettis played 41 — but Pettis has shown more upside in this offense in recent weeks and may rise above Bourne this week. Any of these three wide receivers could hit for a big play (Bourne is the only one who hasn’t done so yet, but he has seen enough downfield looks to create opportunities), and all three are attached to a third-string quarterback in an inconsistent offense. Consider these three to be volatile plays with viable ceiling. None of them can be counted on for floor.

Kittle continues to dominate looks in this offense — with recent target counts of 10 // 13 // 9 — but he and Mullens have struggled to connect the last couple weeks, with only 12 catches on 22 looks (54.5%). In spite of allowing a below-average number of catches to tight ends, the Broncos have allowed the seventh most yards — and as a team, this unit is adding 8.0% to the league-average YAC/R rate, playing into the hands of what Kittle does best. As with the wide receivers, his attachment to this offense makes him a volatile play, but the upside remains.

49ERS RUN OFFENSE

If we take away the 43 carries for 427 yards that Crowell and Gurley pasted the Broncos for in back-to-back weeks midway through the season, this team has allowed only 3.92 yards per carry to running backs. This creates a tough spot for Jeff Wilson, who is playing because of injuries on this team to Jerick McKinnon, Matt Breida, and Raheem Mostert. On the year, Wilson has posted a respectable 4.3 yards per carry on 22 totes, while adding 9-81-0 through the air on 10 targets (with most of this aerial production coming last week). With such a difficult matchup on tap, and with the 49ers regularly looking to limit running back carries to around 14 to 18, the best bet for production from Wilson would be for the Broncos to force a pass-heavy game plan out of the 49ers, and for Wilson to once again be involved through the air. He’s a low-floor play in this spot, but there is enough upside on any back who projects to see 15+ touches — with potential for work in the pass game — for Wilson to be part of the low-cost conversation this week. Behind Wilson, Alfred Morris is expected to be active this week and to soak up ineffective “change of pace” duties. Alf would require a miracle to become relevant on this slate.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Betting on pass catchers in a Case Keenum offense has been a roller coaster adventure this year, and there is certainly no guarantee that Sutton suddenly sees a spike in downfield looks with Sanders on the sidelines — but his seven targets from last week are likely a strong baseline for the rest of the year, and it won’t be surprising if he climbs to nine or 10 looks a few times down the stretch. He’s a bit of a boom/bust play, but the “boom” potential is big on a guy with great red zone attributes and the most yards per reception in the NFL.

Trailing Sutton in this offense is everyone else, for me, with the pass catchers too unpredictable for me to want to bet on them on a slate with plenty to like elsewhere, and with Lindsay priced too high for me given his likeliest-scenario workload. I love Lindsay’s game, and it won’t surprise me if he pops for another long play or two, but last week was, obviously, a better spot than this.

I fully expect one or two viable scores to emerge from the 49ers’ side of the ball, but I don’t expect to have any interest myself, as it is too difficult to predict where these quality games will come from, and guessing wrong will likely leave you with a dud. The likeliest bets are Kittle and possibly Wilson, followed by Goodwin, then Pettis, then Bourne. There are plays priced around all these guys that I like more.


Kickoff Sunday, Dec 9th 4:25pm Eastern

Lions (
21.75) at

Cards (
18.75)

Over/Under 40.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Lions Run D
3rd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
8th DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
16th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
25th DVOA/29th Yards per pass
Cardinals Run D
31st DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
4th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
31st DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
9th DVOA/9th Yards per pass

LIONS // CARDINALS OVERVIEW

The only game on the Main Slate with a lower Over/Under than Lions // Cardinals (40.5) is Jets // Bills — and unlike that game (which will feature Josh Allen taking DGAF shots down the field all game long), this game pairs two of the least aggressive offenses in the NFL. Further lowering scoring expectations on this game is its locale — as the home team Cardinals boast a strong defense that should be able to slow down the preferred offense in this spot.

From a real-life perspective, this game also gives us little to be excited about, as each team is well out of the playoff hunt, and the rookie quarterback in this game is being developed through conservative, run-and-defense-first game plans, rather than through Josh Allen-like shots. Arizona ranks 32nd in both points and yards per game. Detroit ranks 23rd in both points and yards per game.

LIONS PASS OFFENSE

The best potential source of DFS-viable offense in this game comes from a disappointing Lions passing attack that struggled early in the year and then shed Golden Tate before losing Marvin Jones. Kenny Golladay is the last man standing here — and with Patrick Peterson finally being used by Steve Wilks to trail top receivers, he draws a difficult matchup. Working in Golladay’s favor is recent target counts of 13 // 15 // 8 // 8. Working against him is a 50% catch rate in his last four games, as defenses are able to pile as much attention onto him as they want right now with no other viable threats on this offense. Golladay retains sneaky upside in this spot as a guy who could still see 12+ targets (and who is the only viable downfield weapon on the Lions). But with this game likely to remain low-scoring, and with Detroit unlikely to be pushed to take the training wheels off this offense, Golladay’s likeliest scenario is a price-considered failure.

Part of the problem for Golladay has been the emergence of Bruce Ellington in the slot. It feels good for a quarterback to complete a pass — and so, Matthew Stafford has been relentlessly targeting Ellington two to five yards downfield instead of taking downfield shots to Golladay. This has led to Ellington piling up recent reception totals of 6 // 6 // 7 — but on these 19 catches, he has incredibly managed only 115 yards. Outside of touchdowns or broken plays, he’s a floor-only option in this non-aggressive attack.

Behind these two, T.J. Jones has seen exactly one target in three consecutive games. Blocking tight end Levine Toilolo popped off for a 4-90-0 line last week with the Lions leaning heavily on two tight end sets, but he’s nothing more than a “hope for another outlier” play.

LIONS RUN OFFENSE

The Arizona Cardinals continue to define the league-average in yards allowed per carry — with their opponent rushing numbers inflated by the outsized number of rush attempts this team has faced. No team in the league has faced more rush attempts than Arizona, which has allowed running back units to pile up yardage against them.

With Kerryon Johnson expected to miss another week, this backfield will again belong to the underwhelming duo of LeGarrette Blount and Theo Riddick. In two games without Kerryon, Blount has seen 19 and 16 carries, but he has only one reception. Riddick has seen 10 total carries and 10 total receptions across these two games. Blount is a yardage-and-touchdown back, while Riddick will need an unexpected spike in volume or a broken play in order to pop for a big game.

CARDINALS PASS OFFENSE

The Lions have been attackable through the air this year, ranking 30th in yards allowed per pass attempt — allowing an above-average catch rate and an above-average YAC/R rate on the deepest average depth of target in the league. Bringing the Cardinals’ expectations back to Earth are the loss of lone playmaker Christian Kirk (who was put on I.R. this week) and the inefficiency of Josh Rosen under center. On the year, Rosen has completed an embarrassing 54.2% of his passes, with an equally embarrassing 6.1 yards per pass attempt. Rosen has thrown 10 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He has topped 208 passing yards only two times this season, and the Cardinals are looking to limit his opportunities right now as they try to build his confidence with a defense-and-run-first approach.

The loss of Kirk elevates opportunity for Larry Fitzgerald, who could rise to six to nine targets if the Cardinals end up throwing more than normal this week. Fitz has topped 50 receiving yards only one time with Rosen — creating a low floor here — and the Cardinals are very obviously looking to limit passing volume at this point, with a 45.45% pass play rate in their last three games (two of which were losses). The Seahawks have the lowest pass play rate in the NFL on the season, at 48.86%.

Behind Fitz, it will be some combination of Trent Sherfield, J.J. Nelson, and Ricky Seals-Jones seeing targets. Sherfield played 31 snaps last week and saw three targets. Nelson played 12 snaps, but saw zero looks. RSJ has topped 12 yards only once in his last six games. There is a chance Chad Williams returns this week to take on a couple downfield looks on the perimeter.

CARDINALS RUN OFFENSE

Time-machine ownership on David Johnson has kept his price higher than his production has warranted in this broken offense, as the Cardinals rank 31st in the NFL in yards per carry, and DJ has topped 71 rushing yards only twice on the year, with only two games all year above four receptions. He has recent target counts of 3 // 3 // 2, and he will be taking on a vastly-improved Detroit run defense that has given up only one long run to Dalvin Cook and a solid game to Todd Gurley since adding Snacks Harrison in Week 8, and has otherwise stonewalled running backs. Last week’s two-touchdown game from Chase Edmonds looked worse in the box score than it did in real life, with DJ still playing 52 of 62 snaps — but DJ does remain a low-floor play at his still-somewhat-elevated price tag. His ceiling is more than theoretical, but he has a tough time getting there in this offense. Perhaps he’ll see a bit more passing work with Kirk on the sidelines.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I am not seeing anything to catch my eye in this low-scoring game between two of the least aggressive teams in the NFL. As is the case in any game in the league (this being that perfect “any game” example), some things can go right to create a fantasy-viable play; but the style of play from these two attacks makes it nothing more than “guessing and hoping” to try to find that play. There are simply much better spots on the slate than this.

If I did go here, Golladay would probably be the guy I would take a shot on. I don’t expect the Lions to get aggressive, and the matchup is no good; but there is potential for another high-target game, which opens the door to upside. Fitzgerald, Blount, and DJ would be the plays to consider behind him.


Kickoff Sunday, Dec 9th 4:25pm Eastern

Eagles (
21) at

Cowboys (
24.5)

Over/Under 45.5

Tweet
Notes

Key Matchups
Eagles Run D
19th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
15th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
28th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
11th DVOA/14th Yards per pass
Cowboys Run D
9th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
6th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
6th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
7th DVOA/11th Yards per pass

EAGLES // COWBOYS OVERVIEW

When these teams met in Week 10, the Cowboys pulled out a 27-20 victory that sent the Eagles to 4-5 with a game against the Saints on tap, while the Cowboys kicked off a four-game win streak that has sent them from barely alive to 7-5, where they sit atop the NFC East. The Eagles are 6-6, and a loss in this game would make their path to the playoffs far less clear. This game is suddenly a lot more exciting than seemed possible a month ago. Eagles // Cowboys has been awarded a cautious Over/Under of 42.0. The Cowboys have been installed as 3.5 point favorites.

EAGLES PASS OFFENSE

Last week, the Cowboys dominated their game against the Saints by absolutely owning the clock (New Orleans — who still ranks third in the league in time of possession — had the ball for a stunning 23:07), and by shutting down the Saints on the ground, allowing Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram to pile up only 63 yards on 18 carries. The Saints were only able to run 49 plays — and while Drew Brees still completed a steady 64.3% of his passes, he was able to pick up only 127 yards on these throws. The Saints suffered from some key moments of lapses in execution, but ultimately it was a game that played out about as perfectly as the Cowboys can script things :: Stop the run // force short throws // control the clock. Only three teams in the NFL are allowing a higher catch rate than the Cowboys, but they keep the ball in front of them and tackle well, which forces teams to march the field on them; and with the Cowboys’ ability to make teams one-dimensional through stout run D, it becomes tough to march the whole field, one first down at a time. The Cowboys have recently allowed 23 and 28 points to the poor offenses of Washington and Tennessee, but their 10-point stomp-out of the Saints’ dangerous attack serves as a reminder of what this team can do when everything goes right.

With the Cowboys allowing the second fewest pass plays of 20+ yards, it will be up to the short throws to keep the Eagles’ offense moving — and lately, the king of these short throws among wide receivers has been Golden Tate, who has seen target counts the last three weeks of 8 // 8 // 7, in spite of continuing to play just half the team’s snaps. Tate has turned these 23 targets into only 163 yards (7.1 yards per target), with only one target in the last two weeks that came more than 13 yards downfield. He will need a broken play in order to hit for a big game in this spot (against a defense that capitalizes on not allowing broken plays). Helping his cause in this department is his YAC ability and his knack for getting open when the quarterback has to scramble — each of which can lead to broken plays.

Wide receiver viability on the Eagles thins out behind Tate, with Alshon Jeffery seeing target counts across the last three weeks of 5 // 3 // 5 (failing to top 40 yards in that stretch, and failing to top 50 yards in any of his last five games), and with Nelson Agholor seeing bounce-around target counts in his last four games of 8 // 2 // 1 // 8 (while managing to top 56 yards only three times all year). Both guys continue to play a full complement of snaps, so it’s not impossible for one of them to hit; but neither could be counted on for consistent production in this spot if we played out this slate a hundred times.

The top dog in this passing attack has been Zach Ertz — who is appropriately priced on FanDuel for his production, but who is priced about $1k too cheap on DraftKings when you compare his point-per-game production (19.9) to high-priced wide receivers; (19 to 20 points per game at wide receiver has earned price tags ranging from $7.3k to $8.3k; Ertz is $6.4k this week). The matchup is nonthreatening against a Dallas team that has allowed the third most catches in the league to tight ends — a stat aided heavily by Ertz’ 14-145-2 demolition of them in Week 10.

EAGLES RUN OFFENSE

The Eagles’ backfield will face one of the tougher tests in the NFL this week against a Dallas defense that has allowed the second fewest yards per carry in the NFL, while holding enemy running backs to the fourth fewest rushing yards and the third fewest touchdowns. The Cowboys are allowing only 3.63 yards per carry to running backs — an awesome-low mark that has finally started to push teams to the air against them.

The setup in this spot is further complicated by the Eagles turning to a three-way timeshare in the backfield last week, giving 20 touches to Josh Adams, eight touches to Corey Clement, and four touches to Darren Sproles. Adams played 41 of a possible 75 snaps. Clement played 23 snaps. Sproles played nine.

Adams remains the top play in this group, and he is the only running back on the Eagles who has seen 20 carries in a game (which he has now done in back-to-back contests); though with only 15 pass routes run last week (to 14 for other backs), he’ll be at risk of slowing down if the Eagles choose to attack through the air. He is best viewed as a yardage-and-touchdown back in this difficult draw, with any pass game work a bonus. No other back in this backfield is seeing enough usage to be considered a reliable piece.

COWBOYS RUN OFFENSE

The Eagles’ run defense continues to get exposed (they currently rank 29th in the NFL in yards allowed per carry, at 5.0) — and yet, they continue to face the fewest rush attempts in the NFL. Part of this is their attackable secondary, and part of this is their heavy fronts, but the good news for Ezekiel Elliott is that this team runs the ball regardless of opponent. Over the Cowboys’ last four games (starting with their game in Week 10 against Philly), Zeke has carry counts of 19 // 23 // 26 // 23. He has added target counts in this stretch of 7 // 8 // 6 // 6, with this offense even adding in some misdirection screen plays designed to get Zeke into space with the ball in his hands. In this four game stretch, he has yards-from-scrimmage totals of 187 // 201 // 143 // 135. This compares favorably to CMC (138 // 110 // 237 // 161) and Saquon (100 // 152 // 142 // 146) at the higher ends of the price range. The Cowboys will heavily ride their lead back once again in this spot.

COWBOYS PASS OFFENSE

Part of the reason things have opened up so nicely for Zeke lately has been the addition of Amari Cooper. Amari has not only freed up extra room for Zeke, but he has also freed up room for Michael Gallup, who is no longer having to deal with the attention shown to a number one receiver. This is still an offensive scheme that does little to get players open, and these players are still attached to a quarterback in Dak Prescott who is not a true playmaker through the air, but the matchup is decent against a Philly pass defense that ranks 16th in yards allowed per pass attempt. The injuries in this Philly secondary have not shown up in the stats nearly as much as most were expecting (Philly still forces a below-average aDOT and allows an average catch rate, while continuing to tackle well after the catch — a testament to Jim Schwartz’ adaptability as a defensive coordinator), but this is an average matchup at worst.

While the Cowboys are a run-heavy team (27th in pass play rate // 27th in pass attempts per game), this team has a narrow enough target distribution to create viable DFS opportunities. With Dak throwing 28 to 36 times in each of his last four games, Amari has been able to see target counts of 10 // 5 // 9 // 8, while Gallup has gone 3 // 5 // 6 // 7 and Cole Beasley has gone 5 // 7 // 3 // 3. Gallup and Beasley will need a couple touchdowns or a big spike in usage or efficiency in order to become viable on this slate, but Amari should see enough work to have an opportunity to matter. With only one of Amari’s 22 targets across the last three weeks coming more than 15 yards downfield, he’ll still need a broken play or a multi-touchdown day in order to truly pop, but there is some upside here.

Behind the wide receivers, the tight ends on this team continue to offer nothing.

Dak has not topped 273 passing yards or two passing touchdowns in a game this year, keeping his floor low — but he has added five touchdowns on the ground this year, giving him just enough ceiling to matter from time to time.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

The pieces that really stand out to me in this game are Ertz on the Eagles and Zeke on the Cowboys. More than just about any other pieces in the NFL, the Eagles revolve around Ertz through the air, and the Cowboys revolve around Zeke in all phases of the game. This is not about these guys both posting a strong game in this matchup a few weeks ago; rather, it’s about these guys both posting a strong game week in and week out.

Behind these guys, this game is mostly low-floor dart throws, along with a guy in Amari who is a bit overpriced for the actual types of looks he is seeing (short throws that often leave little room for YAC). I like the upside on a few of these pieces (Amari included) enough that I will have at least some vague interest in this game away from Ertz and Zeke — but those two are the ones who are really catching my eye in this spot.


Kickoff Sunday, Dec 9th 4:25pm Eastern

Steelers (
30.5) at

Raiders (
20.5)

Over/Under 51.0

Tweet
Notes

Key Matchups
Steelers Run D
13th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
24th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
7th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
28th DVOA/24th Yards per pass
Raiders Run D
17th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
12th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
8th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per pass

STEELERS // RAIDERS OVERVIEW

Eyes will be on this late game in Week 14 with DFS favorite James Conner set to miss, and with this valuable Pittsburgh backfield now belonging to Jaylen Samuels and Stevan Ridley in a soft matchup against the Raiders. For that matter: the entire, explosive Steelers offense (fourth in yards per game // fourth in points per game) has a great matchup against a Raiders defense that has allowed the fifth most yards and the second most points in the league. The only thing likely to stand in the Steelers’ way in this spot is the potential blowout nature of this game. The 7-4-1 Steelers opened as massive 13.0 point road favorites against the 2-10 Raiders, in a game with an Over/Under of 51.5. Pittsburgh has since lost 2.5 points off this spread, but at -10.5 they are still the second biggest favorite on this week’s Main Slate.

STEELERS RUN OFFENSE

This is a great spot for the Steelers’ run offense, against a Raiders team that ranks 28th in yards allowed per carry and 32nd in rushing yards allowed per game. With Oakland constantly falling behind and presenting a pristine matchup on the ground, they have faced the lowest pass play rate in the NFL — leading to them facing the third most rush attempts in the league. No team has allowed more rushing yards to running backs than the Raiders. On average, Oakland is allowing 130.5 running back rush yards per game, with 3.33 running back receptions and 34.4 running back receiving yards added for good measure. The Raiders have allowed 12 running back touchdowns in 12 games. The average “backfield” DFS score against Oakland has been 24.1 on FanDuel and 25.75 on DraftKings and FantasyDraft.

Of course, the big story in this spot is the loss of James Conner, who will give way this week to Jaylen Samuels and Stevan Ridley.

We have two games this year in which Conner has missed time. The first came in Week 10 with Conner in concussion protocol and the Steelers up 38-14 vs the Panthers. In that game, Samuels played 18 snaps and Ridley played 10. Samuels had five carries and three receptions. Ridley had eight carries and a target on his 10 snaps, being used primarily to close out the game.

The second opportunity came last week, with the Steelers in a tight game against the Chargers. Samuels played 17 snaps (15 of which were pass plays), seeing two carries and three targets. Ridley played zero snaps. There has been talk this week that Samuels will start this game for the Steelers and Ridley will play the second series (with the two rotating from there), but the likeliest outcome here is Samuels taking over the bulk of the work until the Steelers establish a safe lead late in the game. Samuels played tight end and H-back at N.C. State, and while he never topped 12 carries in a game, he was regularly involved in the run game — giving the Steelers the type of all-around threat they prefer in this offense. In his eight-year career, Ridley has 30 catches. In four years of college, Samuels set an N.C. State school record with 202 receptions.

STEELERS PASS OFFENSE

Most teams have gone run-heavy against the Raiders, and it is likely that the Steelers will eventually establish a comfortable lead in this spot — but there is also a case to be made that without Conner on the field (and with a pass-first player in Samuels giving their offense the look it is most used to), this team will end up putting the ball in the hands of Ben Roethlisberger for much of the first three quarters. If this ends up being the case, the matchup could not be better for Ben, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and the Steelers’ passing attack. The Raiders have faced the fewest pass attempts in the entire NFL (that’s the concern…), but they have allowed the most yards per pass attempt in the league. If the Steelers do decide to let Ben / Jaylen win this game (over a plodding Ridley), the Steelers have potential to pop in this spot.

While season-long numbers tell us that both AB (first in the NFL in targets per game) and JuJu (ninth in the NFL in targets per game) are among the most consistent receivers in the league, week-to-week usage has been a bit more up-and-down than we would love. AB has three consecutive games with 13 targets, but he had target counts of 6 // 8 // 10 // 6 heading into this stretch. JuJu has a 17-target game and a 19-target game, but he also has games of four, five, and six targets. Brown is dominating in the touchdown department, with 12 to JuJu’s four — though JuJu ranks second in the NFL in red zone targets with 23 (seven more than AB). Juju has two more catches and 83 more yards this year than his more heralded teammate, which sets him up to outscore AB a couple more times down the stretch if he captures some positive touchdown regression. With this offense adjusting route trees and responsibilities each week to account for opponent, it’s always a bit of a guessing game as to which of these guys will see the biggest workload and post the best box score production. Consider AB the safer play, as he has seen fewer dips in usage. Consider each guy to have similar upside. All of this would be more exciting if these guys were not among the highest-priced plays on the slate, but each guy has potential to justify his price tag. The cheapest price comes on FanDuel, where JuJu costs only 12.5% of the salary cap, compared to a more appropriate 16.4% on DraftKings.

Behind these two, Ryan Switzer continues to soak up work underneath, though he has topped two catches only once. James Washington should return as a sparsely-used number three option with Justin Hunter on I.R. Washington has not topped 25 yards this year. Vance McDonald and Jesse James continue to split snaps and targets — with Vance carrying the higher upside, but with neither more than a guess-and-hope play.

RAIDERS PASS OFFENSE

Analysis has been somewhat futile on the Raiders’ passing attack this year (for that matter, analysis has been somewhat futile on this offense as a whole), as Derek Carr entered last week’s game against Kansas City with fewer than 200 passing yards in four of six games, and he proceeded to pop for 285 passing yards and three passing touchdowns, with his second highest completion rate of the year (against a Chiefs team that allows downfield passing but has been one of the better teams in the league at preventing catch rate efficiency). Along the way, Carr produced a 10-97-0 game for previously-dead Jordy Nelson and a 7-100-1 line for part-timer Jared Cook. Tanking Jon Gruden did not even bother to design man-beating routes for Jordy — instead running him on simple hitch routes, outs routes, sideline shots, and bubbles. Heading into last week, the best yardage total by a wide receiver against the Steelers since Week 4 had been 86 yards for Emmanuel Sanders (Week 12), followed by 82 yards for A.J. Green, 73 yards for Mohamed Sanu, 62 yards for Julio Jones, and 62 yards for Tyler Boyd. No other wide receiver against the Steelers had cracked even 60 yards since September. This stat was blown up by Keenan Allen last week in his monster 14-148-1 game. It will be more difficult for Jordy/Carr to beat this tough matchup, but a big part of Jordy’s absolute evaporation was a six game stretch with four or fewer targets. Maybe Jordy sees double-digit looks again if/when the Raiders fall behind.

Seventh-round rookie Marcell Ateman has turned 19 targets into 82 yards across the last three weeks; he’s a low-floor, bet-on-volume play. Seth Roberts continues to handle possession targets in this offense, which has yielded a low ceiling but a consistent floor.

The best matchup goes to Cook, who has always been scary to bet on even in good offenses, and whose recent usage has been inconsistent at best, with target counts since Week 6 of 2 // 5 // 2 // 9 // 6 // 5 // 8. The safest bet here is five or six targets, but he could disappear in this offense, or he could spike for 8+ looks. Pittsburgh has allowed the ninth most receptions to tight ends, creating opportunity for Cook to potentially sneak past the field with another useful line.

RAIDERS RUN OFFENSE

The Raiders’ backfield will take on a middling Pittsburgh run defense (12th in yards allowed per carry) with one of the least attractive timeshares in the NFL. On a team that ranks 22nd in yards and 29th in points, Doug Martin is racking up two to three receptions for 20 to 30 yards most weeks, while topping out at 61 rushing yards in all but one game this year. Martin has looked better than expected and has scored in back-to-back games, but he would likely need a couple long plays or a multi-touchdown game to be worth a spot at the important running back position. Martin continues to split time with Jalen Richard — though Richard’s workload (three straight games of four targets // 36 carries on the year) has been too thin for him to produce a single fantasy-strong game so far. He’s nothing more than a close-your-eyes-and-hope play, with a decent floor so far, but with no real upside to date.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

It wouldn’t be crazy for Jordy Nelson to post another strong game in this spot for the Raiders — though I won’t go near him myself; his floor is low enough that I would rather bet on the “low-priced wide receivers with upside” who won’t get a zero in a realistic worst-case scenario. Cook is intriguing for the upside he provides, though even as the best way for the Raiders to move the ball here, he comes with low floor in this injury- and trade-wrecked offense. He would be tourney only for me, and there are obviously safer ways to chase upside.

It’s a different story on the Steelers’ side of the ball, where I expect Samuels to be used more than enough to matter this week at his depressed price, and where there are also clear paths to AB and JuJu posting high enough scores to justify their lofty price tags. These two are more “appropriately priced” than “underpriced” for their upside in a likely blowout, and there is risk of the Steelers tilting run-heavy as the game moves along; but both should be in clear consideration for tourneys. I could also see taking a shot on Ben in this spot in large-field tourneys. Unless the Steelers’ defense fails to show up, this team will probably not need a huge game from Ben in order to win — but with Conner down, this could still be a spot in which Pittsburgh goes pass-heavy through the first three quarters.


Kickoff Sunday, Dec 9th 8:20pm Eastern

Rams (
27) at

Bears (
24)

Over/Under 51.0

Tweet
Notes

Key Matchups
Rams Run D
20th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
10th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
22nd DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
23rd DVOA/23rd Yards per pass
Bears Run D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
7th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
17th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
10th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass

RAMS // BEARS OVERVIEW

Sunday Night Football has been on point with their matchups this year — grabbing a great set of games through the early portions of the year, and choosing the right games to flex down the stretch. Somehow, this spot originally called for the Steelers and Raiders to match up on Sunday night (as if that was expected to be an important game this deep into the season). NBC corrected their mistake by replacing that game with an important tilt between the 10-2 Rams and the 8-4 Bears. The Rams rank second in the NFL in points per game, while the Bears rank fifth. The Rams boast one of the most ferocious fronts in the NFL, while the Bears have allowed the fourth fewest yards per game and the fourth fewest points per game. This matchup opened with an Over/Under of 53.5 — with public sentiment pushing Vegas to install the Rams as 4.5 point favorites. The Bears quickly gained steam — with faith in their defense and offense dropping this line to 51.5 and dropping the spread to Rams by 3.0.

BEARS RUN OFFENSE

The Rams have been one of the easiest teams to run on this year, ranking 30th in yards allowed per carry and giving up 4.81 yards per carry to the running back position. This team has hardly seen the effects of their poor run defense, as they have faced the seventh fewest rush attempts in the NFL this year — and most of their “run defense deficiencies” (same as we saw in Denver with Wade Phillips) have been due to scheme rather than talent, as this team opens up run lanes by trying to aggressively attack the quarterback. If an opposing team’s rushing attack gets out of control on the ground, the Rams have the ability to shift focus; but with an explosive offense on the other side, this is rarely an issue.

While the raw matchup is good for Jordan Howard, he continues to function as a near-zero in the pass game, with a streak of nine consecutive games with one or zero catches. He has yet to top 82 rushing yards in a game this year, leaving him yardage-and-touchdown dependent…with yardage and touchdowns thin bets for him this year.

BEARS PASS OFFENSE

The big story in this game is the return of Mitchell Trubisky, who gave way to Chase Daniel the last two weeks in a close win over the lowly Lions and a close loss to the lowly Giants, and who will return to an offense that he had been directing well for much of the season. This offense has capitalized on efficiency over volume this year, with Trubisky topping 31 pass attempts only once since Week 3 — but he quietly has five games in his last seven with 40+ rushing yards, and he has four games this year in which he has accounted for three or more touchdowns. This offense will take a balanced approach to start the game — same as they have all season — but the Bears’ 31-38 loss to the Patriots (in which Trubisky uncorked 50 throws) also provides some hope for a heavy-volume game.

Taking away that 50-pass outlier, targets since Week 4 with Trubisky under center have looked like this:

:: Tarik Cohen — 8 // 9 // 3 // 2 // 7 // 5
:: Allen Robinson — 4 // 6 // DNP // DNP // 8 // 7
:: Anthony Miller — DNP // 4 // 7 // 6 // 6 // 3
:: Taylor Gabriel — 7 // 5 // 6 // 5 // 3 // 9
:: Trey Burton — 4 // 4 // 4 // 3 // 4 // 1

No clear alpha has emerged in this spread-the-wealth attack, with only Cohen and Burton cracking double-digits in targets since this offense got on track in Week 4 (Cohen and Burton both got there in that 50-pass game against the Patriots; Cohen got there again last week with Chase Daniel under center). Robinson has topped 64 yards only once with Trubisky in this stretch (a 6-133-2 blowup against the Lions). Miller has topped 49 yards only once (5-122-1 in that same game against the Lions). The last time Gabriel topped 52 yards was Week 6. Outside of his 11-target game against the Patriots, Burton has finished with 40 or fewer yards in every game since Week 4.

Cohen has provided the most consistency in this offense, going for 69 or more receiving yards in four of his last seven games with Trubisky while adding 15 to 30 rushing yards most games and chipping in seven touchdowns on the year. The nature of his role in this offense makes him a high-variance play, but after toying around with various “featured pieces” early in the year, Matt Nagy has settled on Cohen as his most consistent playmaker, which is creating enough opportunities for Cohen to matter most weeks. If this game turns into a shootout, he’ll have a good shot at posting a relevant stat line.

Aqib Talib played 26 of 72 snaps last week and should be able to ramp up further — creating a tough matchup for Robinson on the outside. The Rams will likely treat Robinson as the Bears’ number one receiver — which does not create an impossible matchup, but it certainly makes things more difficult.

Early in the year, Miller was being used primarily on underneath routes while Gabriel was primarily being used downfield, but Nagy has gradually expanded Miller’s responsibilities while largely scrapping the downfield shots to Gabriel. Incredibly, these two receivers now carry identical aDOTs of 11.9. Gabriel is averaging 1.8 more targets per game than his rookie teammate, and he has a 71.05% catch rate compared to Miller’s catch rate of 60.0%. Either guy can hit, but Gabriel will have the slightly better shot in this spot.

Burton has been a major disappointment this season after offseason hype for him stepping into this “U” role that Nagy used with Kelce last year to create mismatches all over the field. Bears beat writers speculated in the offseason that Burton would set the new Bears tight end receptions record, but he has caught only 38 passes this season and has averaged only 37.3 receiving yards per game. The Rams have allowed a middling number of receptions to tight ends, but they have allowed the fourth most yards to the position, creating some hope for Burton. His best path to upside is for this game to turn into a shootout and for his targets to spike accordingly.

RAMS PASS OFFENSE

This Rams passing attack thrives on movement, misdirection, and an ability to space out the field in such a way that defenses have to defend all levels at once — accounting for an elite running back, an elite screen game, and throws that come short, intermediate, and deep (both toward and against the flow of the play). There is no “best type of defense” to stop an offense like this, but a Bears team that capitalizes on assignment-sound play backed up by technique and talent is in better position than most teams to put some roadblocks in the way of the Rams. The Bears have shaved 6.2% off the league-average aDOT, they have shaved 2.2% off the league-average catch rate, and they have shaved 6.0% off the league-average aDOT. Add it all up, and this team has allowed the third fewest yards per pass attempt (while racking up the fifth most sacks in the league).

In two games without Cooper Kupp, targets on the Rams have looked like this:

:: Brandin Cooks — 12 // 6
:: Robert Woods — 11 // 8
:: Josh Reynolds — 8 // 5
:: Tyler Higbee — 7 // 4
:: Gerald Everett — 4 // 3

In that first game (the 54-51 barn burner against the Chiefs), Jared Goff threw 49 passes. In the second game, vs Detroit, he threw the ball 33 times — which is more in line with his typical range of 32 to 35.

With Higbee seeing more work in the pass game in the absence of Kupp and with Reynolds stepping into a big chunk of Kupp’s short and intermediate targets, Cooks and Woods have not seen their target share jump in the Rams’ last couple games. Barring outlier, pass-heavy game scripts, each guy should continue to be penciled in for his normal range of seven to nine targets. Last week, we said this: “Jared Goff is much likelier to throw 30 to 35 passes in this spot, after throwing 49 against the Chiefs, so those raw target numbers should not be used as a baseline; but if Goff does throw 35 times (and we assume Gurley sees his typical six looks through the air), something like seven to 10 targets for Cooks/Woods, four to six targets for Reynolds, and seven or eight total targets for the two tight ends is a reasonable expectation.” Those numbers nailed their marks last week, and we should continue to carry the same expectations moving forward.

For the second straight week last week, Cooks saw three targets that came 20+ yards downfield, which gives him big-play upside. Woods has now added seven targets across his last two games of 20+ yards. Woods has connected on only three of these seven looks and Cooks has connected on only one of his six, which leaves room for more upside on these guys than recent box scores indicate. The Bears are tough all the way around, but they are easiest to attack with wide receivers, to whom they have allowed the sixth most receptions in the league.

Reynolds is not seeing schemed “upside” looks, but he provides some floor in this offense, and he could grab a big gain on a scramble drill or a YAC play. He could also add upside with a touchdown.

The tight ends continue to split looks, and the Bears have allowed the sixth fewest yards to the position, but Higbee and Everett are used in enough wide receiver-like looks to potentially pop on a broken play.

RAMS RUN OFFENSE

The Bears have been awesome against the run this year, ranking third in yards allowed per carry and allowing the fewest rushing touchdowns in the league. Only the Ravens, Cowboys, Texans, and Saints have allowed fewer rushing yards to running backs. Only the Jaguars and Titans have allowed fewer total touchdowns to the position. This disciplined, assignment-strong defense has also been stout through the air against running backs, allowing the eighth fewest receiving yards.

Of course, the beauty of Todd Gurley this season (and last season) has been that this offense is designed in such a way that opponents have to account for the entire field on every play. This makes it impossible for teams to sell out against the run completely, and it consistently leaves Gurley with space to run before meeting defenders. On the year, no team ranks higher in adjusted line yards than the Rams.

The other beauty of Gurley this year (and last year) has been the largest red zone role in the NFL (by far).

The Rams were showing signs a few weeks ago of spelling Gurley more frequently with Malcolm Brown to keep their star back fresh for the playoffs — but with Brown now sent to I.R., Gurley should be back to his workload-heavy ways, especially in this important, top-of-the-NFC tilt.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

On the full slate, Trubisky and Cohen would become intriguing tourney options for their big upside in this spot — but this Bears offense has been unpredictable enough that Trubisky would still be considered a “ceiling” play, rather than a “floor/ceiling” play, while this unit has mixed up usage among their weapons enough that Cohen would obviously not be part of the high-floor/high-ceiling conversation either. Everyone else on this offense would be nothing more than darts on the Main Slate — but with this well-designed scheme sure to produce points, it is likely that one or two guys emerge from this side of the ball with nice scores this week. On the Showdown, there will be plenty of “hoping you guess right” on this offense, which opens the door to multi-entry play. Mixing and matching a few of these pieces a few different ways will provide the best shot at a top score.

Expectations in the spot are lower for Gurley than they would be in others, but his role and the design of this offense still keep him on track as the highest-ceiling player on this one-game slate (with only the quarterbacks battling him for that title). It won’t exactly be a shock in a matchup like this if Gurley fails to rip off a monster game…but it also won’t be a shock if he smashes.

The Rams’ passing attack is not in the best spot — on the road against a top three pass defense — but the locked-in volume on Woods and Cooks (with downfield looks mixed in) will provide opportunity for them to hit. They are both very much in play on the Showdown. The rest of the pass-catchers are more dart throws than true “upside” plays, and Trubisky has a better shot at a big game than Goff, but all of these guys can be considered on an offense this good, on a “slate” this small.

Only three teams have turned the ball over fewer times this year than the Rams, and only eight teams have taken fewer sacks, so this is not the best spot for the Bears’ DST — though as always on the Showdown, defenses can be considered for splash play potential. The same goes for an aggressive Rams team that ranks 12th in sacks and fourth in turnovers forced.

As always, both kickers can be considered on the Showdown as well.


Kickoff Monday, Dec 10th 8:15pm Eastern

Vikings (
21.25) at

Hawks (
24.25)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Vikings Run D
12th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
10th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
8th DVOA/12th Yards per pass
Seahawks Run D
23rd DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
27th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
25th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
21st DVOA/17th Yards per pass

VIKINGS // SEAHAWKS OVERVIEW

Abby says the Seahawks will win this game. (Note: Abby knows nothing about the Seahawks or the Vikings.)

Both of these teams are playoff-caliber squads (for that matter: both of these teams could make a case as the third best unit in the NFC — a conversation that also includes the Bears and the Cowboys; and the playoffs are a crazy enough place that either of these teams could make the Super Bowl if things go just right), but the Vikings still have a shot to fall out of the playoff hunt if they lose this game. A loss in this game for the Vikings will remove their ability to control their own destiny — potentially setting them up to be this year’s version of the 2017 Chargers.

This game sets up as an entertaining one from a real-life perspective, with a pair of well-coached, competitive, closely-matched teams. From a DFS perspective, this game pairs a defense-and-run-first Seahawks team vs a defense-and-pass-first Vikings team. This game opened with a modest Over/Under of 45.5. The Seahawks have been installed as early three-point favorites at home.

VIKINGS PASS OFFENSE

No team in the NFL has thrown the ball more frequently than the Vikings, at 67.31% — and even with Dalvin Cook returning for this team in Week 9 (and being healthy enough to play most of the snaps since Week 11), this team continues to lean pass-heavy, with a pass play rate across their last three games of 70.53%. With an offensive line that has failed to open holes in the run game (31st in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards), the Vikings have chosen to focus on a quick-out passing attack that features plenty of Adam Thielen in the slot and Stefon Diggs on wide receiver screens and other short-area looks.

The Seahawks’ pass defense has forced the third shallowest aDOT in the NFL, but they are allowing a 2.4% boost on the league-average catch rate, and they have had a few lapses this year that have led to them ranking bottom four in YAC/R allowed. Add it all up, and this team ranks 25th in yards allowed per pass attempt, creating room for the Vikings’ passing attack to matter.

Seattle has been tough over the short middle, with the best DVOA rating in the NFL in this part of the field, but they have struggled on downfield passes over the middle — and with this team playing far less man coverage than the Patriots played against the Vikings last week, it will be more difficult for them to contain Thielen. Thielen ranks second in the NFL in targets per game, and he has been held under nine targets only two times all season. He has scored in all but three games this year. He has topped 100 yards in all but three games as well.

Barely trailing Thielen in targets per game is Diggs, who ranks fourth in the NFL in this category. Diggs’ usage in this offense leads to some “Jarvis Landry with the Dolphins” games — with lines on his ledger this year of 8-33-0 // 4-33-0 // 3-43-1 // 5-49-0. Of the 17 targets that Diggs has seen across the last two weeks, only five have come more than five yards downfield. Most of the usage Diggs sees in this attack comes at or around the line of scrimmage — though these plays are designed to still create upside, with isolation formations that give him one man to beat for a big gain, or with blockers out in front of him. Diggs also sees added upside on the downfield looks that do come his way. Across the last two weeks, his five targets beyond five yards have come 10 // 10 // 25 // 25 // and 30 yards downfield. He’s a lower-floor play than most double-digit target guys, but against a Seattle defense that has struggled at times in the YAC allowed department, there will be opportunities for him to pop off for one or two long plays.

When two guys on the same team rank in the top five in the NFL in targets per game, this doesn’t leave much behind them. Volume has been further compromised on remaining pieces with Cook seeing recent target counts of 4 // 3 // 3 // 10.

The best bet for useful production behind the wide receivers is Kyle Rudolph, who has averaged only 3.8 catches per game and 38.6 yards per game, with only two touchdowns all year — but who does have five games this year with six or more targets. The Seahawks have been awesome against tight ends, allowing the fourth fewest receptions in the league.

Aldrick Robinson appears to have passed Laquon Treadwell for number three duties, with Lord Aldrick playing 43 snaps last week to Treadwell’s 22. This may have been simply opponent-specific, but Aldrick did see genuinely schemed targets last week — something Treadwell has not been able to claim all year. It’s too early to call this a trend, but it’s at least worth thinking about on the Showdown.

VIKINGS RUN OFFENSE

Cook has clearly established himself as the backfield leader for the Vikings, playing 88 snaps across the last two weeks to 40 for Latavius Murray — but this has still not turned into consistent carries, as Cook has yet to top 10 totes since Week 1. Working in Cook’s favor from an “upside” perspective are his big-play ability and his opportunity for occasional spikes in the pass game. Neither of these elements do anything to help his floor, but against a Seahawks team that ranks dead last in the NFL in yards allowed per carry, he will have some opportunities to shine. He’s a low-floor, high-ceiling play on the Showdown.

SEAHAWKS RUN OFFENSE

Whenever a big-name offense begins to go run-heavy, we tend to get a few weeks of push-back — with people bringing up all the reasons why circumstances led to this approach (see: the 2018 Chargers, Texans, Saints, and Seahawks) — but by this point in the season, there are no arguments left, and everyone has to acknowledge that pass-heavy games from these offenses are the outliers, and not the other way around. The Seahawks have led the charge in this department as the only team in the NFL that has run the ball at a higher rate than they have thrown the ball. Russell Wilson has topped 31 pas attempts only once in his last 10 games.

In an effort to create differentiation on the Showdown, you could bet on a game flow scenario in which the Vikings take a big lead and force the Seahawks to take to the air — but from a “likeliest scenario” standpoint, we should expect the Seahawks to lean on the run once more, with efficiency the name of the game through the air.

The matchup is not great for the Seahawks backs, against a Vikings defense that has allowed the fifth fewest yards per carry in the league. Only seven teams have allowed fewer rushing yards to running backs this year.

Betting on this backfield for floor and ceiling have both become difficult in the last few weeks, with Chris Carson seeing recent carry counts of only 17 // 16 // 13, with only six total targets in this stretch. Behind him, Rashaad Penny has gone 8 // 4 // 7 on the ground (with zero targets), and Mike Davis has gone 4 // 4 // 4 (with three targets). The best volume bet is Carson, but he’s a yardage-and-touchdown back in a tough matchup, with an unclear path to 20 touches. In all, the Seahawks have been one of the more difficult teams to bet on in DFS, with most of their yardage coming on the ground, but with most of their touchdowns coming through the air.

SEAHAWKS PASS OFFENSE

Speaking of “the Seahawks’ touchdowns coming through the air” :: Russ has, incredibly, thrown multiple touchdown passes in all but one game this year, and he has thrown three or more touchdowns in six of 12 games. No team in football has thrown fewer passes than Seattle. Only six teams have fewer passing yards. And yet, the Seahawks have the fourth most passing touchdowns in the league. This has made floor a thin bet in this passing attack, with all of these guys relegated to “bet on touchdown” options. Making this spot more challenging for the Seahawks is a Vikings defense that has allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the league.

Target counts on the Seahawks across the last four weeks have looked like this:

:: Doug Baldwin — 5 // 10 // 7 // 4
:: Tyler Lockett — 6 // 5 // 5 // 2
:: David Moore — 3 // 8 // 5 // 1

With such limited volume in this passing attack, efficiency is a bonus — making Lockett stand out weekly for his 80% catch rate and his nine touchdowns on only 55 targets. Lockett is being given scoring looks from all areas of the field — so while his floor in non-touchdown games is low, his ceiling remains somewhat attractive on the Showdown.

Last week, we noted that Baldwin — while falling almost a yard a half shy of Lockett in xYAC/R, with a route tree that is giving him fewer opportunities for big plays — had failed to connect with Russ on several recent touchdown opportunities, giving him some upside that had not yet shown up in the box score. Baldwin proceeded to score his second touchdown on the year…but he did so while hauling in only two catches for 22 yards.

Moore continues to see a few downfield looks and end zone opportunities, with a 57.9% catch rate on his limited targets, and with three games in his last five of 16 or fewer receiving yards. Moore has contributed a 97-yard game, a 103-yard game, and five touchdowns on the year, giving him solid upside to go with his true-zero floor.

The tight ends continue to operate as afterthoughts in this attack, functioning as mere “bet on outlier” plays.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

The best way to bet on the Vikings is to lean on their narrow distribution of offensive touches, where this team has fed top-five target counts to both Thielen and Diggs, and has leaned on Cook as their primary back. Thielen is the safest play of the bunch, while Diggs has shown multiple times this year that he has the ability on his usage to post the highest score on the weekend (while also showing multiple times that he can break your roster at his price). Kirk Cousins has far less per-play upside than Russ on the other side of this game, but he’ll pass enough times to have opportunities to matter. Cook is a low-floor, solid-ceiling play — though he still stands out as one of the better plays on this one-game slate. Rudolph and Lord Aldrick are darts.

On the Seahawks, Russ is the best bet for production, where he will need his awesome touchdown efficiency to win out over the Vikings’ ability to limit passing touchdowns. If betting on other pieces on the Seahawks, your best bet is to try to isolate the players who could score, as usage on this attack has been spread too thin for anyone to be considered a high-floor play. Lockett, Baldwin, Moore, Carson, and even “hope for a big play from Penny” are all viable bets, but all carry obvious risk.

Neither offense is particularly mistake-prone, but the defenses will still have a shot at some splash plays.

The kickers, as always, are in play on the Showdown as well.