SAINTS // COWBOYS OVERVIEW

The first-place Saints will take their 10-game win streak on the road this Thursday night against the “first-place” Cowboys and their three-game win streak (fifth longest in the NFL at the moment) — and these teams are a lot more similar in the way they approach their games than most probably realize. The Cowboys rank 25th in pace of play, which would not surprise most — but the Saints rank even lower, at 30th (and contrary to the argument most would make: they rank 31st in situation-neutral pace of play). The Cowboys are one of the run-heaviest teams in the NFL, ranking 27th in pass play rate, while the Saints (as you surely know by now — subscriber to this site that you are) rank 30th in pass play rate. These teams both rank in the top five in run defense, introducing some interesting elements. When these teams pass, neither focuses on a downfield approach, with Drew Brees producing the eighth lowest average depth of target in the NFL, and with Dak Prescott producing the 10th lowest.

Of course, the similarities end when we get to the efficiency portion of the conversation, as Brees is completing 76.4% of his passes (compared to 65.2% for Dak), and he has 29 touchdown passes and only two interceptions (compared to 13 touchdown passes and five interceptions for his counterpart). The Saints are 100% capable of dominating games when forced to win through the air. For the Cowboys, this can be a struggle.

I tried to guess the Vegas numbers in this game before looking, and off the top of my head I came up with New Orleans -9.0 with an Over/Under of 49.0. I wasn’t far off. New Orleans is favored by 7.0 on the road, and this game opened with an Over/Under of 51.5. Each team will benefit from a full week to prepare, as each played last Thursday as well. This strongly favors the superior coaching staff of the Saints, and even with this game being on the road, they project to be the team that dictates how this game shapes up.

SAINTS PASS OFFENSE

The (incorrect) public perception of the Cowboys is that they boast a tough pass defense — but realistically, this pass defense is extremely similar to the Colts, who we have likened all season to a better version of the Bucs, with Tampa 2 concepts that aim to force shorter throws and tackle well after the catch. In fact, the Bucs and the Colts are the only teams in football that allow a higher catch rate than the Cowboys — a setup that could not play more perfectly into what the Saints aim to do: primarily working the short areas of the field with a crisp, precision-oriented attack that mixes in a few downfield throws each game with an otherwise “march the field” set of route combinations and passes.

The key piece in this attack for the Saints is Michael Thomas, whose targets have suffered as a result of the Saints taking the air out of the ball so early in games the last three weeks (three straight blowout wins). Through 11 games, Thomas already has five games with five or fewer targets. (Last year, Thomas had only one such game — with only two games all year below eight targets.) If the Cowboys fail to keep this game competitive, Thomas’ volume will likely suffer once again — and with a maximum of one downfield target most games, this would put him at high risk of price-considered disappointment. Thomas has only one game in over two months of double-digit targets, and that came in the back-and-forth affair with the Rams. That was also his only game with more than 92 receiving yards since Week 3. Bolstering Thomas’ upside is a big red zone role, as only three players have more red zone targets than Thomas, and only one player has more targets inside the 10.

The major value that Tre’Quan Smith brings to this offense is his ability to work a defense deep, which meshes poorly with a Dallas team that has allowed the third fewest pass plays in the league of 20+ yards. Matchup hardly matters for a Brees-quarterbacked offense, but the likelihood of Smith seeing a spike in downfield targets is low in this spot. He’ll likely need to do damage on shorter throws or on limited downfield looks. As he showed against Washington a few weeks back (3-111-2 on only three targets), he still carries upside if volume slips, but the floor obviously becomes low.

Making this game difficult on the Showdown is the fact that this team spreads the ball around with the best of them, as Keith Kirkwood, Austin Carr, both running backs, and all three tight ends are involved in the pass game — and as we saw on Thanksgiving, Brees can pile up four touchdown passes to four otherwise-fantasy-irrelevant players. Carr is a slot receiver who has contributed only nine catches for 97 yards all season, in spite of two touchdowns across the last two weeks. Kirkwood has played 55 out of 127 offensive snaps for the Saints the last two weeks (43.3%), running 12 and 18 pass routes. He has seen five and three targets the last two weeks and is a low-floor, bet-on-touchdown play. Josh Hill (31 snaps last week // eight pass routes // zero targets), Benjamin Watson (18 snaps last week // nine pass routes // two targets), and Dan Arnold (12 snaps last week // 11 pass routes // six targets) continue to split time. Don’t read too much into Arnold’s target spike last week, as the Saints are one of the more opponent-specific offenses in the league, and either he or Watson could see a spike in work on a given week.

There is a case to be made that Sean Payton and Drew Brees (who care about stats and records more than just about any other coach/QB tandem in the NFL) are trying to win the NFL MVP for Brees this year (an award he has, incredibly, never won before), which could continue leading to more passing touchdowns than rushing touchdowns for this team, even as passing volume remains limited. That should not be a major contributing factor in roster decisions, as it is merely conjecture, but it is at least interesting to note, with Brees tossing 11 touchdown passes across the last three weeks on only 77 attempts.

SAINTS RUN OFFENSE

The Cowboys have presented one of the most challenging run defense matchups in the NFL, but they have been extremely easy to beat through the air, with the eighth most receptions allowed to the running back position, on a completion rate of 83.5%. With the Saints deploying one of the most creative run schemes in the NFL and ranking top three in adjusted line yards, this offense should still be able to produce at least acceptable numbers on the ground, but this would also be a good spot for the Saints to pull Alvin Kamara back up to the four to five targets he had been seeing since the return of Mark Ingram (instead of the target counts of 1 // 1 that he has across the last two weeks).

Here are the updated snap numbers for Kamara // Ingram since the latter’s return:

Kamara — 31 // 39 // 38 // 41 // 34 // 44 // 37
Ingram — 36 // 35 // 23 // 34 // 31 // 30 // 27

Kamara has 94 carries and 26 targets in this stretch. Ingram has 90 carries and 15 targets. Kamara is the more explosive back, giving him more upside, but the gap is much closer than most people think (there are a lot of fantasy and NFL writers with a lot of time and energy and public outspokenness invested into the idea that Kamara was “the guy” in New Orleans this year, and that Ingram would be nothing more than a back-burner piece — and these people have had a hard time moving off this position, which is affecting the way that most of the fantasy world is perceiving this backfield). Each guy has a shot at explosive plays and touchdowns in this high-powered offense. Kamara has a higher chance of posting a big game, and with his larger pass game role, he is less likely to dud.

COWBOYS PASS OFFENSE

In four of their last five games (with only the game against the Rams left out), the Saints have recently held the Falcons to 17 points, the Eagles to seven points, the Bengals to 14 points, and the Vikings to 20 points — but this has not impacted wide receiver production as much as some might assume, with highly efficient stat lines allowed across their last five games of:

11-147-0 on 14 targets to Julio Jones
4-74-0 on four targets to Mohamed Sanu
8-93-1 on 13 targets to Calvin Ridley
3-65-0 on four targets to Tyler Boyd
6-114-1 on eight targets to Brandin Cooks
5-89-1 on six targets to Cooper Kupp
5-71-0 on nine targets to Robert Woods
7-103-1 on seven targets to Adam Thielen
10-119-1 on 11 targets to Stefon Diggs

Only the Eagles receivers have been shut down by the Saints across their last five games, and as one of the man-heaviest coverage teams in the NFL, there will be opportunities for Amari Cooper to shine in this spot as the only receiver for the Cowboys to heavily target. Outside of his five-target Week 11 dud, Amari has target counts with the Cowboys of 8 // 10 // 9. The Cowboys will likely find themselves chasing points in this spot — a good setup for another eight to 10 targets for their number one receiver.

The Saints have been repeatedly burned by slot receivers for big yards-per-reception days (see Sanu // Boyd // Kupp // Thielen above), though Cole Beasley will have to have his route tree adjusted in order to take advantage, as he sees most of his looks within three to 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and carries an aDOT of only 7.1. If the Saints take a big lead early, it won’t be crazy to see Beasley pile up six or more targets with a bit more intermediate work than normal against a Saints team that adds more than 4% to the league-average aDOT.

Behind Beasley, Michael Gallup is a dart throw — with recent target counts of 6 // 3 // 5 // 6, but with only eight receptions on these 20 targets (40%), and with yardage totals in this stretch of 51 // 34 // 10 // 19.

No tight end on the Cowboys has topped 25 yards in a game in nearly two months. The Saints boast one of the toughest tight end defenses in the NFL, making the Blake Jarwin // Dalton Schultz combo difficult to bet on. Jarwin played 35 snaps last week and Schultz played 42, though Jarwin ran 25 pass routes to Shultz’ 10. Rico Gathers (who is supposedly glued to the sidelines for his blocking deficiencies) played 15 snaps and ran only three pass routes — being asked to block the other 12 times.

COWBOYS RUN OFFENSE

The Saints rank top five in fewest yards allowed per carry, in DVOA against the run, and in adjusted line yards on defense, creating a difficult spot for a Cowboys team that likes to win with Ezekiel Elliott at the forefront. Through 11 games, no running back has reached even 70 yards against the Saints — though the only two quality running backs this team has faced (Todd Gurley and Saquon Barkley) both failed to top 13 carries — with Gurley going 13-68-1 on the ground, and with Saquon going 10-44-1. The last time a running back topped even 13 carries against the Saints was all the way back in Week 3. Volume should be viewed as a bigger concern than matchup for Zeke and this typically dominant run game. Zeke has added a strong receiving floor across the last month, and he has not finished below 15 carries all year. He should be fine for a solid score in this spot, with potential for volume to keep him from an elite game, but with his upside certainly still intact if the Cowboys keep this game close enough for the volume to be there.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

The Saints lead the NFL right now in points per game, ahead of both the Chiefs and the Rams, which should create plenty of touchdown opportunities in this spot — with the best bets being (in order) Michael Thomas // Alvin Kamara // Mark Ingram // the rest of the team. Drew Brees could have a difficult time piling up yardage if the Cowboys fail to hang tough in this spot, but he has a strong shot at being involved in most of the touchdowns that are scored.

Amari and Zeke both have a shot at the top score on the slate, putting them very much in play. Amari is attached to Dak, and Zeke is at risk of game flow lowering his volume, but with floor concerns on all of Thomas, Kamara, and Ingram as well, these two are very much in the Showdown conversation. Game flow is likeliest to go in Amari’s favor, but the Cowboys depend on Zeke enough that he should continue seeing touches throughout the game no matter what happens, giving him plenty of opportunities for touchdowns and/or his signature big plays.

Behind these guys, Dak has potential for a solid game while chasing points, and it would not be crazy for Beasley to become viable (even if his raw projections fall behind all the other skill position players mentioned above). The Saints are an attacking defense against a team that has taken the most sacks in the NFL. There is opportunity for that unit to matter in this game. The kickers, as always, are in play on the Showdown slate as well.

CARDINALS // PACKERS OVERVIEW

Incredibly, the Packers — with one of the better on-paper teams in the NFL — have only two more wins right now than the absolutely hapless Arizona Cardinals, who are averaging only 232.5 yards per game and only 14.1 points per game, each of which (unsurprisingly) ranks at the bottom of the league. While the Packers are only 4-6-1, their average scoring margin is -0.3 points. The average scoring margin for the 2-9 Cardinals is an incredible -12.5. To put that number in perspective: the Raiders, Titans, and Bills all have average scoring differentials in the negative double digits…while the next worst team is the Bengals, at -6.5. Arizona ranks bottom of the league in time of possession and plays per game, and only three teams are allowing more opponent plays per game. With the Cardinals failing to sustain drives (31st in drive success rate) and constantly playing from behind, they have faced the most rush attempts in the NFL, while facing the fifth fewest pass attempts.

Everything in this game favors the home team — whose remaining schedule includes three games against doormats, a game against a disappointing Falcons team, and an important tilt against the Bears. It is not crazy for the Packers to think they still have something to play for here, and Vegas has taken notice, installing Green Bay as monster 14.5 point favorites.

CARDINALS PASS OFFENSE

Between the Packers inviting teams to run on them and limiting opponent catch rate, they have allowed the seventh fewest completions in the NFL this year — a poor setup for offensive production from a Cardinals team that has the second fewest completions in the NFL. Josh Rosen has the third lowest completion percentage and the lowest expected completion percentage in the league, with almost nothing going right for him in his rookie year. This Cardinals team is, incredibly, averaging only 155 passing yards per game.

Larry Fitzgerald has topped 50 receiving yards only once with Rosen at the helm. The biggest issue for Fitz this year has been the Cardinals’ inability to hold onto the ball for sustained periods (31st in drive success rate // 32nd in time of possession // 32nd in plays per game). Fitz has also been hurt by the Cardinals’ recent insistence on avoiding the pass even when trailing. Last week in a 45-10 blowout loss, Rosen threw the ball only 19 times in 47 plays. Fitz has five touchdowns across his last five games, but he has six total targets across the last two weeks, and “the Packers taking a big lead” would not guarantee a pass-heavy game from the Cardinals, as they are more worried about developing Rosen than in winning games. A bet on Fitz is a bet on the Cardinals opening the offense back up this week against a defense that can be beat over the middle, where Fitz works most of his routes.

Green Bay has been tougher on the perimeter, where Christian Kirk typically works, though it is worth noting that Kirk — another piece of this “develop for the future” equation — has seen exactly six or seven targets in five of his last six games, topping 40 yards five times in this stretch and scoring a couple touchdowns. He and Rosen have connected on only 15 of 29 targets (51.7%) across their last five games, but the work has been consistent.

This passing attack rounds out with Ricky Seals-Jones, who has connected on only 50% of his targets on the season, with only one game this year north of 52 receiving yards. RSJ has gone for 12 or fewer yards in four of his last five games. Green Bay ranks top 10 in fewest receptions allowed to tight ends, and they have allowed only one tight end touchdown on the year.

CARDINALS RUN OFFENSE

The Packers have defined the league-average in yards allowed per carry, but with their pass-leaning focus in defensive scheme/personnel, they have faced the seventh most carries in the NFL this year, and they have faced the eighth highest opponent rush play rate. Unfortunately, the “multiple” skill set that makes David Johnson so tremendously valuable is also being dented by the low passing volume on this offense, with four or fewer targets in four of his last five games. When DJ is confined to the 2-20 // 3-30 range through the air, it is difficult for him to post elite stat lines, as he is running behind an offensive line that ranks 24th in adjusted line yards, and he is averaging only 3.7 yards per carry. He has topped 63 rushing yards only two times this season. The best bet on DJ is on his red zone role, where he has 12 carries inside the 10 (13th most in the league) and seven carries inside the five (also 13th most in the league).

PACKERS PASS OFFENSE

The Cardinals’ pass defense is attackable in the same way that the Colts’ pass defense is attackable, as this unit is tied with the Colts for the lowest opponent aDOT in the NFL (this team has shaved an incredible 21% off the league-average aDOT), but they allow a 5.3% boost on the league-average catch rate, and they have been below-average after the catch, leading to them ranking middle of the pack in yards allowed per pass attempt. This is a perfectly fine setup for a Packers passing attack that primarily focuses on attacking the short areas of the field.

With superstar corner Patrick Peterson almost never trailing number one receivers this season, look for the Packers to move around Davante Adams to take advantage of what is ultimately an above-average matchup against any other corner. Since the Packers got healthier at wide receiver, Adams has seen target counts of 7 // 9 // 7 // 12 // 8, and he has topped 70 receiving yards only two times in this stretch. His biggest boost in value comes from his monstrous red zone role (first in the NFL in red zone targets with 23; first in the NFL in red zone touchdowns with nine), but he does have the ability in this offense to pop for a big yardage game as well. Bet on the touchdowns from Adams and view a big yardage game as a bonus — in a matchup the Packers should largely control.

Behind Adams, the Packers’ passing attack has been a bit of an unpredictable mess, with Aaron Rodgers failing to top even 200 passing yards in two of his last three games (and failing to crack 300 yards in four of his last five), and with only two games all season of more than two touchdown passes. The Packers have lost four of their last five, and Rodgers has somehow managed to top 30 pass attempts only once in this stretch. The likeliest scenario here has Green Bay controlling this game, with Rodgers pushing for only 32 to 35 pass attempts as a result; but another way to approach this would be to assume the Packers control this game and decide to get Rodgers and this passing attack heated up by throwing the ball deep into the game — which would likely lead to double-digit targets for Adams, and to a rise in reliable work for all other pass catchers on this team. Considering that McCarthy is the coach of this team, this should not be considered a safe bet, but it’s an interesting bet to consider in tourneys. One data point in favor of this approach: the Packers have topped 57 plays only once in their last five games (which, of course, became the only game in which Rodgers’ volume rose). The Cardinals are allowing 67.5 plays per game — the fourth most in the league. All bets are off in usage behind Adams after the Packers moved Equanimeous St. Brown into the slot on 24 of his 36 snaps last week, allowing him to see the targets that had previously been going to Marquez Valdes-Scantling (17 slot snaps last week; 27 outside).

If Randall Cobb returns this week, he will soak up his typical “handful of low-upside targets from the slot,” requiring a broken play in order to provide strong value. In that instance, MVS would likely play the most snaps, and would bump to the outside where he would see plenty of Peterson — becoming a “bet on splash play” option. If Cobb sits again, it will be MVS and St. Brown on the field together, though it’s anyone’s guess as to how these two will be deployed.

Jimmy Graham played with support on his broken thumb last week and turned four targets into two catches for 34 scoreless yards. Only six teams have given up fewer receptions to the tight end position than Arizona, giving him a difficult path to upside.

PACKERS RUN OFFENSE

The Cardinals’ run defense has defined the league average this year, ranking 20th in yards allowed per carry and allowing an increase on the league-average YPC of only 1.7%; but with this team unable to hold onto the ball and unable to play with a lead, they have faced the most rush attempts in the NFL, which has led to them allowing the third most yards on the ground, while giving up 16 total touchdowns to running backs — the third most in the league.

This is an interesting setup for Aaron Jones, to whom the Packers have awarded more than 17 carries only once in his 21-game career (while never once giving him 20 carries). Similar to what we had when other “coach-limited volume” backs faced this team (Kareem Hunt // Melvin Gordon), this should be viewed as only a slightly above-average matchup from a yardage perspective, and the Mike McCarthy dunderhead experience will likely prevent Jones from taking advantage of the big bonus this matchup provides: a big spike in volume. We should go in expecting around 17 to 18 carries and another five or six targets. The elevated touchdown upside is a nice bonus for a player who has converted five of his 16 red zone carries into touchdowns already.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

When the Cardinals have the ball in this game, there is risk that they will lean on the run even when trailing after so vehemently taking this approach in Week 12 — putting all of the upside pieces on this offense at low-volume risk. Even with a higher-volume passing attack, DJ would be off the board for me at his price (the only week we really had much interest in DJ in this space since Week 1 was the game against the Chiefs that just set up so well for him), though one thing I would not mind in large-field tourneys is a bet on Fitz in the hopes that the Cardinals do dial up 30+ pass attempts (which would likely pull Fitz up to the six to eight target range — giving him a couple opportunities for a big play or a touchdown). Outside of this large-field dart throw, I would not be drawn toward anything on this offense, which continues to rank among the bottom three in the NFL in nearly every category.

On the Packers’ side of the ball, I like both Jones and Adams as “bet on touchdowns and hope for a spike in volume” plays. It’s not crazy to think that the Packers run more plays this week than they have over the last month-plus; and if they do, it’s not crazy to think that either A) Rodgers throws more, giving Adams a chance to rise back to double-digit looks, or B) McCarthy finally unleashes Jones and allows him to go for 22+ carries. The latter is the less likely scenario, but both guys are respectable plays for the price, and there is potential for game flow to provide an upside boost.

RAVENS // FALCONS OVERVIEW

If the season ended today, the Ravens — winners of two straight — would be in the playoffs with their 6-5 record, while the floundering Falcons have lost four straight and sit at 4-7 toward the tail end of a disappointing season. Injuries have made their mark on the Falcons’ season, but this year has also been marred by head-scratching coaching decisions and player deployment. The Falcons are playing for nothing but pride and 2019 at this point.

The two stories of this game are 1) Lamar Jackson on the road against a beat-up Falcons defense that ranks 31st in drive success rate allowed and 30th in opponent red zone touchdown rate, and 2) the high-powered Falcons offense (seventh in yards per game // 11th in points per game) against a Ravens defense that has been the best unit in the NFL, allowing the fewest yards per game and the fewest points per game in the league. Vegas opened this game with an aggressive Over/Under of 49.0, with the Ravens installed as three point favorites. The total was quickly bet down to 48.0, and the home team saw a big swing in their direction over the first couple days of action — moving from three point underdogs to one point favorites.

RAVENS PASS OFFENSE

The Falcons’ scheme has long capitalized on forcing short throws and tackling well after the catch — but with all the injuries to the Falcons’ defense this year, they have allowed opponent aDOT to rise to a league-average level, and this squad is allowing the third highest catch rate in the NFL. Add it up, and the Falcons rank 24th in yards allowed per pass attempt, and they have allowed the eighth most passing yards and the second most passing touchdowns in the league.

This matchup boost will be necessary for Lamar Jackson to find success this week if the Ravens again insist on forcing him to play like a more traditional quarterback, as he does not yet have the ability to pick apart an NFL defense or make the consistent tight-window throws that a quarterback at this level has to make. For all the fantasy world hype surrounding Jackson, he has completed only 61.4% of his passes in his two starts, with a yards per pass attempt mark of only 7.45. These games came against Cincinnati and Oakland — two of the only defenses in the NFL that are easier to attack than the Falcons. After the Ravens hammered the Bengals with zone reads in Week 11, they asked Jackson to drop back more regularly in Week 12, with 25 pass attempts (compared to 19 the week before), and with most of his 11 rush attempts coming on scrambles rather than on designed quarterback keepers. On a team that has not passed for 300 yards since Week 4 (and that has not topped 206 yards since Week 7), Jackson will likely need touchdowns and rushing yardage to have a shot at posting one of the top scores on the slate.

Jackson’s limited passing volume and low completion rate are affecting all of the pass catchers on this team — especially as 14 of his 27 completions the last two weeks have gone to tight ends and running backs. In two games since Jackson took over, John Brown has two catches on eight targets for 48 yards; Michael Crabtree has four catches on nine targets for 28 yards; Willie Snead has five catches on eight targets for 51 yards.

As for the tight ends: Nick Boyle, Maxx Williams, Hayden Hurst, and Mark Andrews all saw snaps last week, with Boyle running 16 pass routes, Andrews running nine, and Hurst running eight. (Williams run blocked on all eight of his snaps.)

Every pass catcher on this spread-the-wealth, low-volume attack would take a leap of faith to roster this week. Your best bet for useful production is a broken play or a multi-touchdown game.

RAVENS RUN OFFENSE

The Falcons have been one of the easiest teams in the NFL to attack on the ground this year — boosting the league-average yards per carry by over 17%, ranking 30th in yards allowed per carry, and allowing (as is the case every year) the most running back receptions in the league. The Falcons’ 14 touchdowns allowed to running backs are the seventh most in the NFL.

While the matchup is of very little concern for rookie Gus Edwards, his lack of pass game involvement (zero targets through two snap-heavy games) could lead to trouble as he chases upside in this spot. Edwards has run a non-awful 21 pass routes across the last two weeks, but he is out there for checkdown purposes only, and it is unlikely that he racks up more than one or two receptions even in this plus receiving draw. There also remains slim concern that Alex Collins could siphon some work on the ground if he returns to the field this week, but this is a back-burner worry, and the likeliest scenario is another 17+ carries for Gus Gus. Consider him a yardage-and-touchdown back in a plus draw for both items — introducing some floor concerns, but giving him a good chance of making those floor concerns disappear.

Behind Gus Gus, Ty Montgomery played 28 of 70 snaps last week (40%), seeing eight carries and three targets. There is a chance he rises to around five targets this week, but his carries will remain limited, requiring him to hit for a big play or a touchdown in order to post a healthy box score.

FALCONS PASS OFFENSE

The Ravens have one of the most aggressive coverage units in the NFL — playing tight to receivers, getting after the quarterback (ninth in the NFL in adjusted sack rate), and allowing the lowest catch rate in the league. This defense communicates well, rarely plays out of position, and tackles well after the catch (second lowest YAC/R rate allowed in the league) — leading to the lowest yards allowed per pass attempt in football. Only the Vikings have allowed fewer passing touchdowns than the Ravens. Only the Jaguars and Bills have allowed fewer yards.

The one thing the Falcons should have on their side is volume, as they are currently the pass-heaviest offense in the NFL. Matt Ryan has thrown 38 or more pass attempts in seven of his last eight games, and he has topped 300 passing yards in seven of his last nine games. None of those games came against a unit like this one, and Ryan has also scuffled in the scoring department lately, with two or fewer touchdown passes in four of his last five games; but in a home game with high-powered weapons, he will have an outside shot at producing elite numbers in this difficult draw.

Ryan’s primary target this year has been Julio Jones, who has only one game all season below nine targets, and who has incredibly topped 100 yards receiving in six consecutive games. Julio leads the NFL in air yards, percentage share of team air yards, and targets per game. The Ravens have not allowed a single receiver to top 91 yards against them, and only two players (Tyler Boyd in Week 2 and D.J. Moore in Week 8) have topped 80 yards. The Ravens have held Tyler Boyd (the second time around), JuJu Smith-Schuster (twice), Antonio Brown (twice), Michael Thomas, and A.J. Green under 80 receiving yards. This is a tough test for Julio — who retains his upside, but whose chances of getting there are lower than normal. The Ravens have allowed the sixth fewest pass plays of 20+ yards and the second fewest pass plays of 40+ yards.

Behind Julio, recent target counts on the Falcons look like this:

:: Calvin Ridley — 6 // 9 // 5 // 4 // 13
:: Mohamed Sanu — 2 // 5 // 8 // 6 // 4
:: Austin Hooper — 4 // 3 // 11 // 8 // 5

A bet on Ridley is a bet on a big play or another end zone visit. He has topped 71 receiving yards only two times this year.

A bet on Sanu is a bet on a broken play or a touchdown.

Rather quietly, the best matchup (such as it is) goes to Hooper, as the Ravens have given up the 12th most receptions and the 10th most yards to the tight end position. He’s always a low-floor bet, but he could turn into an important piece for the Falcons’ offense this week as they search for ways to move the ball.

FALCONS RUN OFFENSE

Baltimore has also been dominant on the ground this year, with only five teams allowing fewer yards per carry, and with only three teams allowing fewer touchdowns to the running back position. The Saints and Bears are the only teams that have allowed fewer rushing yards to running backs. Only five teams have allowed fewer receptions to running backs, and no team has allowed fewer receiving yards.

Tevin Coleman continues to split time with Ito Smith, with recent touch counts of 14 // 11 // 11. He’ll need an unpredictable big play or a multi-touchdown game to be relevant on this week’s slate.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I won’t have any interest in the Ravens’ pass catchers beyond possibly taking a large-field tourney shot on a broken play or a deep ball going to John Brown. I’ll probably look elsewhere at quarterback as well, simply because Jackson’s chances of a big yardage game through the air — and/or of three or more touchdowns — are slimmer than other available options, and if we project him for 50 to 80 rushing yards, this isn’t quite enough to make up for the lower ceiling in other areas. I like Jackson and will certainly add him to my early-week list, but I expect to find quarterbacks I like more this week.

I’m hopeful that I will not end up on Gus Edwards in the Ravens’ backfield, as his price is creeping up for a guy with zero to minimal pass game work; but he is certainly in play this week for his “100 yards and a touchdown” potential. As long as the work is there, he will carry a non-awful floor in this matchup, as 17 or 18 carries should lead to at least 70 or 80 yards in this matchup.

On the Falcons’ side of the ball, I don’t hate the idea of taking a tourney shot on Ryan, Julio, or even Hooper, though none stand out as top plays in one of the most challenging matchups in football. Ryan and Julio are “bet on talent over matchup” plays. Hooper is a “bet on matchup filtering targets his way” play this week.

BILLS // DOLPHINS OVERVIEW

While the Dolphins are still technically in the thick of the AFC playoff picture at 5-6, no one is taking them seriously right now — and their average scoring margin of -5.5 (28th in the league) is a good indication of the smoke-and-mirrors approach this team has taken to notch that respectable record. This week, they will host a 4-7 Bills team that is, unsurprisingly, playing hard for Sean McDermott — who continues to get the most out of a weak group of players, one year after taking a below-average unit to the playoffs.

This game pairs two of the most offensively inept teams in the NFL, with the Bills ranked 31st in points per game and the Dolphins ranked 25th, and with each team ranked bottom five in yards per game. These teams also rank bottom five in drive success rate on offense. This games projects to tilt toward a slow-paced, run-leaning approach on both sides (Buffalo in particular should lean on the run, as they rank fifth in rush play rate even with all the losses, and the Dolphins face the third highest rush play rate in the league), with yardage and scoring somewhat thin for both sides. This is the first meeting between these teams this year, and it opened with an Over/Under of 38.5, with Miami installed as surprising 6.5 point favorites. Since opening there, this line has settled in place at Miami -5.0, with the Over/Under trickling up to 40.0.

BILLS PASS OFFENSE

Miami’s pass defense ranks top eight in fewest opponent air yards — which is more a function of teams choosing to attack them on the ground than it is of any major strength in the Dolphins’ coverage. This team is allowing a league-average aDOT and a league-average catch rate — and with YAC issues continuing to pop up for the Dolphins, they rank 28th in yards allowed per pass attempt. There are 24 teams that have faced more pass attempts than Miami, but only 11 teams have allowed more passing yards. Volume, scheme, and talent will be bigger concerns for the Bills’ passing attack than matchup. Miami does not have much of a pass rush, ranking 29th in sacks on the year, but with this team intercepting the second most passes in the NFL and giving away chunk gains on the ground, the Bills (28th in pass play rate in spite of constantly playing from behind) should lean run-heavy in this spot.

Josh Allen has topped 22 pass attempts only two times this season, and he has topped 10 completions only three times. He has an unbelievably poor 52.5% completion rate, and he has cracked 200 yards through the air only once all year — back in his first NFL start in Week 2. On the season, he has three touchdowns and five interceptions.

Volume will obviously be an issue for this team that has only produced viable wide receiver stat lines with Matt Barkley under center. The “best bet” (such as it is) for floor in this passing attack is Zay Jones, who can typically be counted on for four to six targets (in spite of his one-target dud last week). The best bet for ceiling is rookie speedster Robert Foster, who has five catches on seven targets across the last two weeks, for 199 yards. Foster has a legitimate floor of zero, but the Bills want to take the top off the defense a few times each week with downfield shots that take advantage of Foster’s speed and Allen’s arm. Three of Foster’s five catches have gone for 40+ yards.

BILLS RUN OFFENSE

The Dolphins have been one of the most attackable teams in the league on the ground, ranking 26th in yards allowed per carry while facing the fifth most rush attempts in the NFL. The only teams that have faced a higher opponent rush play rate this year are the Raiders and the Cardinals. Only two teams have allowed more run plays of 20+ yards than the Dolphins, and only two teams have allowed more run plays of 40+ yards. This team ranks 31st in Football Outsiders’ open field yards allowed.

All of this lines up nicely for LeSean McCoy, who has recent touch counts (starting from Week 12 and moving backward) of 18 // 27 // 14 // 18. Marring McCoy’s floor is his attachment to an offensive line that ranks 26th in adjusted line yards and an offense that ranks bottom three in yards per game, points per game, and drive success rate. He has only one game all year with more than 100 rushing yards, and only three games all year with more than 50 rushing yards. His floor concerns do not disappear in this spot, but his ceiling is boosted by the matchup.

DOLPHINS PASS OFFENSE

The Bills have presented one of the most challenging pass game matchups in the NFL this year — ranking top five in both shallowest aDOT allowed and lowest YAC per reception rate allowed, creating a difficult spot for a run-first offense that is loath to take shots downfield. Across his six starts, Ryan Tannehill has topped 25 pass attempts only once, he has topped 230 passing yards only once, and he has an average depth of target of 7.5 — 10th lowest in the league. Upside has been difficult to find against the Bills’ pass defense this season, and upside has been almost impossible to find in the Dolphins’ pass “attack.” Wide receiver opportunities on this low-volume attack are further dented by 20.1% of Tannehill’s passes going to Kenyan Drake this year.

The toughest matchup on the Dolphins will go to DeVante Parker, who should square off with shutdown corner Tre’Davious White for much of this game. Quarterbacks have largely avoided receivers against White this season, with only 32 targets thrown in his direction through the first 11 games (per Pro Football Focus). He has allowed 16 catches and one touchdown on the year.

Kenny Stills saw a boost in usage with Tannehill back under center last week, but his four targets produced only one receptions and six yards. As noted last week: Tannehill connected with Stills on two deep targets through the first three weeks of the season. Stills will need one of those plays in order to sniff relevance this week. No team has allowed fewer pass plays of 20+ yards than the Bills, and no team has allowed fewer pass plays of 40+ yards, making this a challenging spot for Stills to hit.

Danny Amendola struggled to stay on the field last week with a knee issue (14 snaps), opening 22 snaps for Brice Butler and 22 snaps for Leonte Caroo. Butler saw one target. Caroo saw two. If Amendola plays this week, he’ll have the best shot at floor, working this defense over the middle, though even if we take away his one target game last week on limited snaps, he has averaged 4.0 targets per game in Tannehill’s starts, compared to 8.2 targets per game with Osweiler under center.

DOLPHINS RUN OFFENSE

Because the Bills have allowed 15 touchdowns to running backs (tied with the Giants and Chiefs for the fourth most in the league), they have built a reputation as an attackable unit on the ground — but as we have explored the last few weeks, this team is solid on a per-play basis, ranking 11th in yards allowed per carry and ranking middle of the pack in receiving yards allowed to the position. Turnovers have been the big story of the Bills’ season, as they have given the ball away the third most times in the league — leading to short fields and easy scoring opportunities for opponents (with these opponents often taking advantage on the ground as they play with a big lead). As such, it is worth noting that the Dolphins’ defense ranks third in the league in turnovers forced — which may open a few scoring opportunities for their backfield. These scoring opportunities will be necessary, as Frank Gore (29 of 54 snaps last week) and Kenyan Drake (24 of 54 snaps last week) continue to split time on an offense that ranks 30th in time of possession and 31st in plays per game. Gore has cracked 70 rushing yards only twice this year, and he has added 10 total catches and one touchdown through 11 games. Drake has topped eight carries only once in his last five games. He boasts the most upside in this backfield with explosive ball-in-his-hands ability and six or more targets in five of his last seven games. He’s a low floor play, but his point-per-dollar ceiling is higher than most realize. The Bills have faced the sixth most running back targets and allowed the eighth most running back receptions, while Drake quietly has seven touchdowns on the season.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I imagine Allen will see at least 2% or 3% ownership in tourneys for his low price and his rushing upside — though volume will be a concern in this spot, and the floor is about as low as any quarterback on the slate. He’s not the type of play I like to target (I’m looking for a much higher floor than this), but he does retain a thin shot at upside. Obviously, I also do not expect to have any interest in his pass catchers — though if building multiple rosters for large-field tourneys, there is a legitimate case to be made for taking a shot on Foster. Think of him the way you would have thought of Eric Ebron when Doyle was active: as a guy who could truly get you zero points, but who is going to be given a couple opportunities for strong point-per-dollar upside each game.

Shady McCoy will slide somewhere onto my early-week Player Grid, though it’s too early in my research to know if he’ll still be there by the time the Player Grid is posted. My hunch is that he will be there (in Tier 3, of course), simply because a solid-volume running back against this Dolphins defense just carries too much upside to ignore; but attached to this offense and this offensive line, he still has a dud floor, making him more appealing in tourneys than in cash games.

I have rarely attacked the Bills’ pass defense this season, and a 13-game slate is not the place where I will look to change that with a poor, low-volume Dolphins attack. There is nothing in the Dolphins’ pass game that stands out as anything more than a complete and total dart throw.

In the Dolphins’ backfield, Drake is actually interesting in tourneys as a guy who should see five or six targets and six to eight carries — with big-play upside and a decent shot at a touchdown against a Bills team that has been generous to enemy backs in and around the red zone. The floor here is low, but as Drake has shown a couple times this year: the price-considered ceiling is much higher than most have noticed, and he can be a difference-maker in his price range on weeks when he hits.

PANTHERS // BUCCANEERS OVERVIEW

The Buccaneers will keep the shootout circus at home this week, welcoming a Panthers team that ranks 10th in the NFL in points per game on offense (one spot behind the Bucs). Eleven games into the season, no team in the NFL has more passing yards per game than the 4-7 Bucs, while only the Rams and Chiefs are averaging more yards per pass attempt. On the other side of the ball, only five teams have allowed more passing yards per game than Tampa, while no team has allowed a higher red zone touchdown rate. Incidentally, the team that ranks 31st in red zone touchdown rate is the Panthers. The Panthers rank seventh in red zone touchdown rate on offense. The Bucs rank 16th. Each of these teams also ranks bottom eight in drive success rate allowed and top eight in drive success rate on offense. When these teams met in Carolina in Week 9, the Panthers won 42-28.

This game opened with a timid Over/Under of 55.5 and was quickly bet up to 56.5. Currently, this stands as the highest mark on the slate, so “timid” is not the word that would typically come to mind first — but four of the Panthers’ last five games have gone over 55.5, while seven of the Bucs’ 11 games on the year have passed that mark. This should be a strong game for offense, with several players to consider on either side of the ball.

PANTHERS PASS OFFENSE

The Buccaneers’ pass defense has been slowly improving, as they have held steady at a league-average aDOT allowed — and while they have still allowed the highest catch rate in the NFL, this number has been trickling down over the last few weeks. The Bucs continue to do a good job after the catch, shaving an impressive 5.6% off the league-average YAC/R rate. This is still a very attackable defense (allowing the highest catch rate in the NFL will do that), and this is still a team that ranks 28th in drive success rate allowed and 32nd in red zone touchdown rate allowed — but they have not been getting blasted out of the water the way they were early in the season.

Volume is unlikely to work heavily in favor of the Panthers’ primary pass catchers, as the Buccaneers are allowing the eighth fewest opponent plays per game, and the Panthers run the seventh fewest plays per game while ranking 11th in rush play rate. Cam Newton has gone north of 30 pass attempts only once in his last five games — and 36 of his 150 passes in this stretch (24%) have gone to Christian McCaffrey, leaving an average of only 22.8 targets to go around behind him.

The most locked-in player behind CMC has been D.J. Moore, who has recent target counts of 6 // 2 // 5 // 8 // 9. His two targets came against the Bucs in Week 9, but that was an outlier, and Moore should bounce back to the five to eight target range in this one. This is the case regardless of whether or not Devin Funchess plays, though these targets become even more solidified if Funchess misses. With a possession-like aDOT of only 8.1, Moore could have a tough time reaching the higher end of his production range against a team that tackles well after the catch — but the floor should be solid, and the upside obviously remains.

Curtis Samuel played the exact same number of snaps as Moore last week (54 out of 59) and ran the exact same number of pass routes as Moore and McCaffrey (31), causing his two targets to stand out as an outlier after he saw target counts of 4 // 4 // 7 heading into last week’s game (while playing well under 50% of the team’s snaps). Across his previous four games, Samuel had seen 18 targets to Moore’s 21, and his 69.6% catch rate across his last five games is not far behind the incredible 83.3% catch rate Moore has posted in this stretch. Samuel is a strong bet for four to six targets in this spot.

Torrey Smith started last week but ended up playing only 13 snaps. He should see his role increase this week, but he’s nothing more than a dart throw until we see him get involved above his younger teammates.

Greg Olsen has been locked into four to six targets per game since returning from his foot injury, and he has a quality matchup against a Bucs squad that he pasted for a 6-76-1 line on six targets in Week 9. The Bucs have allowed the seventh most catches, the most yards, and the eighth most touchdowns to the tight end position.

PANTHERS RUN OFFENSE

The Buccaneers’ train-wreck of a defensive season has carried over to their once-stout run defense, with this injury-ruined unit ranking 22nd in yards allowed per carry and giving up more running back touchdowns than any team in the NFL. With Tampa’s attacking style on offense and their poor pass defense, they are facing a below-average number of rush attempts each week, but rush attempts are only part of the package for Christian McCaffrey, who has topped 17 carries only one time all season, but who has added recent reception marks of 6 // 4 // 5 // 5 // 6 // 11. In five of CMC’s last six games, he has produced a floor of at least 6-50-0 through the air — giving him one of the highest floors on the slate, in spite of only two games all season north of 80 rushing yards. Volume in this slow-it-down attack for the Panthers is the only concern for CMC, as he has only two games in his last seven with more than 19 touches — making it tough for him to produce elite scores at the same rate as the players priced around him; but as he has shown a few times this year, he has the ability to post monster games, and his elite floor makes him a strong player to bet on in any matchup, with the strength of this bet increased in an above-average spot such as this.

BUCCANEERS PASS OFFENSE

The Panthers’ defense has been extremely strong after the catch this season, allowing the second lowest YAC/R rate in the NFL — but they have paired this strong tackling with an aDOT that is 6% deeper than the league average, and they have allowed a tidy 2.3% increase on the league-average catch rate. This has led to the Panthers ranking 19th in yards allowed per pass attempt, and their inability to stop opponents in the red zone (31st in red zone touchdown rate allowed) has led to them allowing the second most passing touchdowns in the NFL.

“Tampa QB” remains one of the most attractive weekly options on the slate, with the attached pass catchers benefitting as well from an attack that ranks second in the NFL in pass attempts, first in passing yards, third in yards per pass attempt, and fourth in passing touchdowns.

The most dominant source of upside in this passing attack has been Mike Evans, though his recent target counts of 6 // 7 // 8 introduce floor concerns for a player who already carries a high-variance style of play in this offense, with an up-and-down connection with his quarterbacks. On a more positive note: Evans ranks eighth in the NFL in yards per reception, at 17.3, and he has topped 100 yards in six of the eight games this year in which he has hauled in at least six receptions. Evans posted a back-breaking 1-16-0 dud against the Panthers in Week 9 on 10 targets — due partly to solid coverage from James Bradberry, but due more to poor quarterback play from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Evans is a good bet to push for five to seven receptions in this spot.

Joining Evans in the top eight in the league in yards per reception is DeSean Jackson, who ranks first in the NFL in average depth of target and has the ability to score from anywhere on the field. DJax has disappointed lately — failing to crack even 40 yards in four of his last six games, and failing to crack 70 yards in any of his last six games — but he does have recent target counts of 8 // 4 // 8 // 7 // 8, opening the door for him to pop off at low ownership. The risk on this play is heightened a bit by the poor connection that Jameis Winston has shown with DJax over the last two seasons.

Connection is not a concern for Jameis and security blanket Adam Humphries, who has seen target counts in Jameis’ starts of 4 // 9 // 10 // 6. Humphries’ targets rarely result in big gains (only one of his targets last week came more than six yards downfield), but on an offense that consistently sends Evans and DJax downfield, Humphries’ role underneath provides him with locked-in looks.

Chris Godwin unexpectedly saw more snaps last week than Humphries and DJax after playing behind the former all season and playing behind both guys the last several weeks. It appears that this was largely for his run-blocking abilities, as he ran the same number of pass routes as DJax and ran only one more than Humphries. Godwin sees four to six intermediate targets most weeks and has a shot to become relevant when he scores, though his red zone role has grown much smaller with Jameis under center.

This passing attack wraps up with Cameron Brate, who trailed only Evans in routes run last week, but who saw only four targets — right in line with what he saw last year when O.J. Howard missed time. Brate should continue to see four to five targets down the stretch, though it won’t be surprising if he spikes higher than that in one game along the way. He’s a bet-on-touchdown play in an above-average matchup.

BUCCANEERS RUN OFFENSE

The Panthers have been solid on the ground this year, with only eight teams allowing fewer yards per carry to enemy backs, and with only eight teams facing a lower opponent rush play rate. Tampa, of course, has the seventh lowest rush play rate on offense, as this team prefers to open up the field when they have the ball — relentlessly attacking downfield. Tampa ranks bottom five in adjusted line yards on offense. Carolina ranks top five on defense.

On a more positive note for upside hunters: Peyton Barber has 18 carries in back-to-back games, and against the Giants in Week 11 he topped 85 rushing yards for the first time all season. With only one game all year of more than two catches or more than 16 receiving yards (4-24-0 against the Falcons defense that filters passes to running backs), Barber is a true yardage-and-touchdown back. He does rank 11th in the NFL in red zone carries (10th in carries inside the 10), and the Panthers continue to struggle in the red zone, opening an outside-shot opportunity for Barber to matter from a point-per-dollar perspective this week.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Cam has thrown for 300+ passing yards only two times all season, and he has topped 256 yards only once in his last five games — limiting his chances of popping off for a truly big game through the air. Of course, Cam’s floor is aided by his rushing upside (29 or more rushing yards in nine of 11 games this year; four touchdowns on the ground) and by his streak of 10 consecutive games with multiple touchdown passes. This matchup throws little in his way, and game flow could lead to him scoring toward the higher end of his range, making him a safe, high-upside play. Alongside Cam, I like all of Moore, Samuel, and Olsen. With targets being spread around in this offense and none of these guys bankable for a spiked-target week, none of these three pop off the page, but at least two of them (and possibly even all three) should post a respectable game. All three carry nice upside as well.

With CMC’s price creeping up into Gurley territory, it’s not typically my style to bet on his likely 19 or fewer touches — but as is the case almost every single week, he is very much in play. He carries one of the highest raw floors on the slate, and it’s certainly not outside the realm of possibilities for him to pile up elite yardage and multiple touchdowns along the way.

As always: I like Jameis, with fringe interest in Evans. Both guys will make my early-week list, to be weighed and balanced against the other players available around them. DJax is a “bet on big play” option — with his chances of hitting dented a bit by his poor connection with his quarterback, but with his recent target counts certainly giving him a shot at production. Humphries has been one of the best ways lately to gain affordable exposure to the upside of this offense, and he remains underpriced on DraftKings and FantasyDraft (while carrying an appropriate price tag on FanDuel). Godwin and Brate are also viable as “bet on touchdown” plays, though neither should be counted on for floor.

In the Bucs’ backfield, I’ll probably set aside Barber as a viable tourney option, though I doubt I’ll actually use him. As a yardage-and-touchdown back whose usage evaporates when the Bucs fall behind, he’s a risky play in a game the Panthers should ultimately control.

FRIDAY MORNING UPDATE // Full “Updates” List

DeSean Jackson will miss this week’s game for the Bucs, opening a full complement of snaps for Chris Godwin and Adam Humphries.

Last year, DeSean (and O.J. Howard) missed Weeks 16 and 17. In Week 16 against the Panthers, Jameis threw the ball only 27 times, with targets breaking down as follows :: Evans — 8 // Godwin — 6 // Humphries — 3 // Brate — 4.

Here were the stat lines in that game:

:: Evans — 6-107-0
:: Godwin — 3-98-0
:: Humphries — 3-51-0
:: Brate — 3-13-0

In Week 17 against the Saints, Jameis threw 51 passes, with targets breaking down as follows :: Evans — 13 // Godwin — 12 // Humphries — 11 // Brate — 5

:: Evans — 5-55-0
:: Godwin — 7-111-1
:: Humphries — 7-102-0
:: Brate — 3-37-0

Something in the range of 35 to 40 pass attempts for Jameis is a reasonable bet, putting him in between those two games last year. This should give you a good feel for how targets are likeliest to be distributed, with room for small shifts from there.

BEARS // GIANTS OVERVIEW

This game pairs two teams that each hired a new head coach last offseason to recover from a disappointing 2017 season. The Bears are 8-3 at the moment. The Giants are 3-8.

The Bears — who seem to still somehow be carrying a reputation as a fluky 8-3 team — have gotten to this point with a top five scoring offense and a top five scoring defense, while racking up the 13th most yards and allowing the sixth fewest. The Bears have the most takeaways in the NFL and rank middle of the pack in giveaways — good for the best turnover differential in the league. This is in sharp contrast to a Giants team that has been average to below-average in yards, points, yards allowed, and points allowed, and that is better than only six other teams in turnover differential. The Giants have had a tough time sustaining drives this season, ranking bottom 10 in drive success rate on offense, while the Bears’ defense has allowed the lowest drive success rate in the league. Only the Titans have taken more sacks than the Giants, while Chicago has the sixth most sacks in the league.

The Bears rank 26th in pace of play and seventh in rush play rate, while the Giants face the sixth highest rush play rate in the league. The Bears also rank ninth in time of possession, while the Giants rank 28th. With the Giants unable to get after the quarterback or force turnovers against a team like the Bears that largely eliminates self-inflicted wounds, New York is primarily going to have to drive the entire field to stay in this game and put up points — something they will likely have a difficult time doing.

Most sportsbooks in Vegas have kept this game off the board on the front end of the week as they await clarity on the Mitchell Trubisky situation, but where this game has been posted, it carries a game total of 45.0, with the Bears installed as four point favorites.

BEARS PASS OFFENSE

The Giants’ defense ranks middle of the pack in yards allowed per pass attempt, with a roughly league-average aDOT and catch rate allowed. Coverage has not been a major liability for the Giants, but with the worst adjusted sack rate in the NFL, receivers have time to get open. As we have noted the last few weeks: the Giants have been tough in the red zone, ranking eighth in opponent red zone touchdown rate, and only the Vikings have allowed fewer passing touchdowns this season. But the biggest drawback to the matchup for Mitchell Trubisky and company will be volume, as teams typically prefer to attack the Giants on the ground. Only one quarterback all year has tossed more than two touchdown passes against the Giants, while only three teams have allowed more touchdowns to running backs.

Reports on Wednesday have Trubisky set up as a game-time decision, which will be interesting to track throughout the week. As expected: Chase Daniel showed a firm grasp of this offense in his Week 12 start, after playing with Andy Reid, Matt Nagy, and Doug Pederson over the last several years (with a second stint with the Saints mixed in last year) — essentially functioning as a less-attacking version of Trubisky, focusing on the short areas of the field instead of taking things deep. Against a Giants defense that is extremely difficult to score on through the air, a Trubisky return would be preferable from an “upside” perspective for pass catchers on this team.

Target counts for Bears pass catchers across their last three games look like this:

:: Allen Robinson — 8 // 7 // 4
:: Anthony Miller — 6 // 3 // 4
:: Taylor Gabriel — 3 // 9 // 8
:: Trey Burton — 4 // 1 // 7

With no clear alpha in this attack, it is difficult to bet on any of these guys from a floor perspective. In turning our attention to ceiling: these four players have combined for only five total games this year of 100+ yards receiving — with Gabriel notching two such games, and with the other three grabbing one apiece. Outside of Gabriel’s 100-yard games, he has not topped 52 yards; outside of Miller’s 100-yard game, he has not topped 49 yards; outside Robinson’s 100-yard game, he has topped 64 yards only once; outside of Burton’s 100-yard game, he has topped 55 yards only once. As explored last week: Robinson, Miller, and Gabriel carry almost identical aDOTs, with none of these three separating from a role or usage perspective. Burton appeared to be a preferred target for Daniel, which is worth noting if Trubisky sits again this week — though it is also worth recognizing that Zach Ertz is the only tight end who has managed to score against the Giants this year, as they have played strong coverage in the red zone across the board.

BEARS RUN OFFENSE

The Giants have ranked middle of the pack in yards allowed per carry on the year, but only five teams have faced a higher rush play rate, and only three teams have allowed more touchdowns than the Giants have allowed to the running back position. Disappointingly, this production has not extended much to pass-catching backs, as the Giants have allowed the eighth fewest receptions and the seventh fewest receiving yards to the position.

Across the Bears’ last three games, Jordan Howard has played 113 snaps while Tarik Cohen has played 83, with Howard seeing carry counts in this stretch of 11 // 18 // 7, and with Cohen going 7 // 7 // 3 on the ground while adding target counts of 7 // 5 // 8. Howard, of course, has been entirely ineffective this year, failing to top 82 yards in any games this year while adding only four catches across his last eight contests. He’s a “hope for touchdown” play. Cohen does not quite see the touches to justify his price, but on DraftKings and FantasyDraft he can typically be counted on for at least five to eight points through the air, with upside for big plays or scores from there — keeping him in the large-field tourney conversation.

GIANTS PASS OFFENSE

One of the biggest mismatches on the slate will come between a Bears pass rush that ranks sixth in the NFL in sacks and has been absolutely dominant in the pass rush department when Khalil Mack has been healthy — taking on a Giants team that has allowed the second most sacks in the league. With Chicago getting after the quarterback so well, they are shaving 6.3% off the league-average aDOT — and with a below-average catch rate allowed and a below-average YAC/R rate allowed, the Bears have allowed the third lowest yards per pass attempt in the NFL. This talented, disciplined unit creates a tough matchup for a passing attack that primarily relies on yards after the catch for its upside.

The best bet on this passing attack, of course, is Odell Beckham, who has seen nine or more targets in all but one game this season. Beckham does not come without some “bust” to his game — with three consecutive games of five or fewer receptions, and with no games in this stretch above 85 receiving yards — but before this recent lackluster stretch, Beckham had topped 130 yards three times in a four game stretch. In spite of the Bears’ strong defensive play as a whole, they have faced the fifth most pass attempts in the NFL, leading to the fourth most wide receiver receptions in the league. Matchup should worry us less than Beckham’s attachment to this low-scoring offense and a quarterback who will be under duress all day, and will be largely unable to push the ball downfield.

Behind Beckham, Saquon has become the clear number two receiver, leaving volume thin for other players on this team. Across his last three games, Sterling Shepard has seen target counts of only 3 // 2 // 6, and he has topped 37 receiving yards only once in his last five games (a 167-yard explosion against the Falcons being the one exception).

Evan Engram injured his hamstring in pregame warmups last week and failed to play (in spite of not being announced with the injury), and he is looking iffy for this week — which would primarily serve to further lock in targets for Saquon and OBJ while providing a slight target boost for Shepard. If Engram plays, he should step into his typical four to five targets, against a Bears defense that has allowed the fifth fewest receptions to the position this season.

GIANTS RUN OFFENSE

The Bears have been awesome against running backs this season, shaving 21% off the league-average yards per carry mark (with the fewest yards allowed per carry in the league), while also allowing only three touchdowns on the ground to backs (the fewest in the league). The Bears have allowed the eighth most receptions to backs, but only nine teams have allowed fewer receiving yards to the position.

This is a tough spot for Saquon Barkley, but the biggest dent to his upside is simply the bleak scoring outlook for this Giants team as a whole against a Bears team that has allowed the second fewest points per game. Boosting Saquon’s floor is an enormous pass game role that has yielded recent target counts of 12 // 10 // 10 // 5 // 3 // 8. In this stretch, Saquon has touch counts of 22 // 23 // 22 // 25 // 30 // 21 — with those 25 and 30 touch games coming in the contests in which his pass work dipped, further solidifying his status as one of the most game flow independent backs in football. If any running back can beat this matchup on his own, it’s Saquon (to frame Saquon’s unique, individual awesomeness: the Giants’ offensive line ranks 26th in adjusted line yards…yet he has consistently matched the production of Gurley // Kamara // Gordon // Zeke // McCaffrey, who all boast offensive lines that rank top nine in adjusted line yards), and the usage should be in place for floor concerns to be somewhat mitigated. Upside, of course, becomes more thin than normal, with this poor Giants offense taking on this dangerous Chicago defense.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

If Trubisky starts this game, he and all of his pass catchers will become viable in large-field tourneys, with potential to stack this offense a variety of ways in the hopes of capturing the upside this squad is capable of producing — though it would be difficult to isolate a single pass catcher in this group to feel comfortable with from a floor perspective, and the difficult matchup in the red zone means that ceiling is not guaranteed. If Trubisky sits, this offense will become even more difficult to bet on. It is likely that one or two guys in this passing attack will produce a useful price-considered score, but big games will be difficult to come by.

I won’t have much interest in the Bears’ rushing attack, but it won’t be surprising for Cohen to post a solid game here, while he does have enough long-shot upside to be worth considering in large-field tourneys. Howard could theoretically be rostered in hopes of catching a multi-score game, but it’s a thin play given his usage in this offense and his production to date.

The Giants’ offense is not attractive from a “scoring upside” perspective, which will make it difficult for any individual player to post a monster score — but the locked-in usage for Saquon and OBJ gives each of these guys a nice floor, and each guy has enough “on his own” talent to be considered as a floor/ceiling option, even on the higher end of the price range. Both guys will be in consideration for me this week. Behind these two, usage and upside on this offense grows thin — and in this matchup, I will almost certainly leave things alone.

BROWNS // TEXANS OVERVIEW

Browns vs Texans is an exciting real-life game between an 8-3 Houston squad that is riding an incredible eight game win streak as a defense-and-run-first team, vs a 4-6-1 Cleveland team that has won back-to-back games with a spread-the-opponent, ball-out-quick offensive game plan and an attacking defense that ranks second in the NFL in takeaways. In spite of their losing record, the Browns are still on the fringes of the playoff discussion.

Each of these teams plays at a fairly fast pace — enabling them to run an above-average number of plays per game while also allowing an above-average number of opponent plays, a setup that will open opportunities for volume to rise a bit on either side of the ball. Each team ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL in drive success rate on offense, while the Texans rank behind only the Bears in lowest drive success rate allowed (the Browns rank middle of the pack on defense themselves). Both the Texans and the Browns play hard, aggressive football, and this game will likely come down to a few defensive gems or a few tight-window throws.

On a 13-game Main Slate that opened with six games carrying an Over/Under of 48.0 or higher, this game opened at 45.0, with the Texans installed as 4.5 point favorites. Houston boasts the more explosive offense and the superior defense — and they also have the benefit of playing this game at home — but the Browns have enough going for them to compete from start to finish.

BROWNS PASS OFFENSE

Houston has not shown many weaknesses against the pass this season, ranking eighth in yards allowed per pass attempt while picking up the sixth most sacks in the NFL and allowing the sixth fewest pass plays of 20+ yards. (Interestingly: the Texans have given up the fourth most pass plays of 40+ yards, as this team’s aggressive style leads to big breakdowns when something happens; this is more bookkeeping than actionable information, as only two teams have fewer pass plays of 40+ yards than this Browns offense that has morphed into a spread-style, quick-out attack.) Houston has allowed only 17 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks (just three more than league-leader Minnesota), and they have allowed the ninth fewest yards and the fewest touchdowns to wide receivers. This team also mixes and matches coverages constantly — regularly changing up their looks at the line of scrimmage in an effort to confuse quarterbacks. Baker Mayfield has shown a strong handle on the NFL game already, but this will be a difficult test for him. Working in his favor is five consecutive games with multiple touchdown passes. Working against him is a short-area passing attack that has yielded only one game in the Browns’ last five with more than 258 passing yards. In fact, Baker has thrown for 216 or fewer yards in three of his last five games.

This team has scaled back passing volume in back-to-back double-digit wins, but they should be able to push back into the “34 or more” pass attempt range in a game that should remain tight throughout — with the Texans the likelier team to be playing with a lead. Volume will be necessary if you want to bet on any of these pass catchers, as Mayfield has spread the ball around to eight to 10 pass catchers in each of his last five games. Jarvis Landry, Antonio Callaway, and David Njoku are the only players with multiple games in this stretch of five or more targets. Landry has gone 7 // 5 // 5. Callaway has gone 5 // 2 // 5. Njoku has gone 5 // 1 // 5. A bet on Landry or Callaway is a bet on a broken play or a touchdown, with upside otherwise limited in this spot. A bet on Njoku is a bet on him seeing the five or more targets he should see in this spot, against a defense that has been far more attackable with tight ends than they have been with wide receivers, allowing the seventh most receptions, the sixth most yards, and the sixth most touchdowns to the position.

BROWNS RUN OFFENSE

The Texans have lived in opposing backfields this year, ranking fifth in adjusted line yards and fifth in yards allowed per carry. The Texans also excel on the second level (fourth in Football Outsiders’ second level ratings) and in the open field (second in FO’s open field ratings). Only two teams have allowed fewer rush plays of 20+ yards than the three the Texans have allowed. Houston has allowed zero run plays of 40+ yards. The Texans rank middle of the pack in receptions allowed to running backs, but only eight teams have allowed fewer receiving yards to the position.

Since Carlos Hyde was traded, Nick Chubb has at least 18 carries in every game, and he has seen target counts of 2 // 3 // 1 // 3 // 3. His workload and explosiveness will provide a slim path to upside, but his floor is obviously much lower this week than it was in three straight games against bottom-tier run defenses.

Behind Chubb, Duke Johnson has seen recent carry counts of 1 // 2 // 1 // 3 // 2, with target counts in this stretch of 4 // 3 // 9 // 4 // 2. He’ll need a spike in workload, a broken play, or one or two touchdowns to prove useful this week.

TEXANS PASS OFFENSE

The Browns have been one of the tougher teams in the league against the pass this year, ranking third in interceptions and allowing the seventh fewest yards per pass attempt — on the strength of a below-average aDOT, a below-average catch rate, and a below-average YAC/R rate allowed. With this team’s fast pace of play, they have faced the most opponent plays in the NFL — which has led to them facing the second most pass attempts in the NFL; but against a Houston team that ranks 30th in pass play rate and has not topped 25 pass attempts in nearly two months, the Browns’ per-play stoutness should matter more than their volume-based production allowance. Perhaps we see Deshaun Watson climb to 28 to 30 attempts in an elevated volume spot for the Texans as a whole, but barring a big, early lead from the Browns or a sudden change in offensive philosophy, a big volume game is a poor bet in a below-average matchup.

During this stretch of low-volume games for Watson, DeAndre Hopkins has seen target counts of only 6 // 8 // 7 // 12 // 6 // 6 — a disappointing setup for one of the highest-priced wide receivers on the slate. Hopkins will also see plenty of coverage from Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Denzel Ward — though volume is more of a concern than matchup for a player as good as Nuk. If he does not see a spike in volume in this spot, he’ll need an incredibly efficient game in order to pay off his price tag.

Volume is also hurting the prospects of Demaryius Thomas (target counts with the Texans of 3 // 1 // 5) and Keke Coutee (3 // 9 // 2 looks in his last three), creating a situation where you are left hoping for a volume spike or a busted coverage if you want to take a shot on one of these guys.

TEXANS RUN OFFENSE

The Browns have been one of the easiest teams in the NFL to run on, allowing an increase of 8.5% on the league-average YPC mark, while allowing 12 rushing touchdowns to running backs — the third most in the league. This is good news for a Houston attack that has become one of the run-heaviest units in the NFL, ranking third in rush play rate and holding Watson to 25 or fewer pass attempts in an incredible six consecutive games.

During this stretch of run-leaning play, Lamar Miller has seen carry counts of 15 // 22 // 18 // 12 // 20 // 12, with last week’s 12-carry game coming with Miller getting plenty of late rest in a blowout win. Miller has quietly gone for 86 or more rushing yards in four of his last five games (topping 100 yards in three of those games). He’s adding two to three targets most weeks, and he ranks 10th in red zone carries, giving him a decent all-around profile as a salary-saver back.

Behind Miller, Alfred Blue has double-digit carries in five of his last eight games, but he still has zero games all season with 50 or more yards on the ground.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Mayfield has been a person of interest for me in his last couple games, but not quite enough for me to actually pull the trigger while concentrating on a narrow core for a limited number of rosters. This week, he would be even tougher for me to pull the trigger on, as I expect volume to rise, but I also expect efficiency to dip in this difficult matchup. Mayfield still carries respectable upside, but his chances of getting there are slimmer than they were in pristine spots against the Falcons and the Bengals. I would also have a difficult time betting on his pass catchers in this difficult matchup, in a spread-the-wealth offense — though Njoku does carry enough upside to be considered as a tourney pivot off of the more popular Ebron. Njoku is probably only 30/70 to outscore Ebron — and even if he gets there, chances are he doesn’t separate from Ebron much. But Njoku is the best bet for yardage and touchdowns through the air for this squad, keeping him very much in the conversation.

There are better spots on the slate than the Browns’ backfield, and I’ll be looking to stay away from this unit myself. If you want to make a case for going here in tourneys: Chubb and Duke both have outside shots at upside, though this is obviously not the likeliest scenario, and each back carries dud potential into this game.

Even with this shift to a low-volume passing attack, Watson has a game with five passing touchdowns in this stretch, and another game with two passing touchdowns, 70 rushing yards, and a rushing touchdown — illustrating his ability to still pop for ceiling. He has also posted three absolute duds in this six game stretch, however, making him a truly boom/bust play at the moment. This shift in offensive identity has also turned Hopkins into a price-considered boom/bust option — making him a risk/reward play who falls shy on paper of those priced around him.

Lamar Miller is worth considering as a lower-priced back who can help you pay up in other spots while giving you a shot at 15 to 20 points. With a minimal pass game role and only four touchdowns on the year, the floor here is not exactly secure, but he should see close to 20 touches in a quality matchup, keeping him in the price-considered ceiling conversation.

BRONCOS // BENGALS OVERVIEW

While both of these teams sit at 5-6 at the moment, they have gotten there in very different ways, with the Broncos winning each of their last two games and carrying an average scoring margin of 0.0, and with the Bengals losing three straight and entering this week with an average scoring margin of -6.5 — fourth worst in the league. The Bengals have placed Andy Dalton on I.R., and it feels very much like their season has been finished for a while in spite of their record saying otherwise. The Broncos, on the other hand, are trying to climb back into the AFC playoff picture, and with games across the next four weeks against the Bengals, 49ers, Browns, and Raiders, it would not be crazy to see them enter their Week 17 tilt against the Chargers with a shot to finish 10-6 and sneak into the final Wild Card spot.

Both of these teams rank top eight in pace of play, and neither team has been good at controlling games, with Denver ranked 29th in time of possession and Cincinnati ranked 31st. The combined time of possession for these two teams falls shy of 57 minutes, which should create opportunities for a few extra plays on either side of the ball. Things could be especially tough for a Bengals team that — even with Dalton — has posted the fourth worst three-and-out rate in the NFL. Denver ranks fifth in three-and-out rate forced on defense.

In spite of the Bengals ranking 31st in drive success rate allowed and 28th in red zone touchdown defense (leading to the most points per game allowed in the NFL), this game opened with an Over/Under of only 42.0 — the third lowest mark on the Main Slate. The Broncos have played five road games this season, and the only game among those five that fell shy of 42.0 came against the Ravens. All 11 Bengals games this year have topped 42.0, creating some sneaky opportunity for one or two players to matter more than the Vegas total suggests.

BRONCOS PASS OFFENSE

Only five teams are allowing a deeper average depth of target than the Bengals, and they rank middle of the pack in catch rate and YAC/R rate allowed — leading to a number 26 ranking in yards allowed per pass attempt, and providing Case Keenum with a quality matchup. Only four teams have allowed more completions to quarterbacks than the Bengals. Only one team has allowed more touchdowns. Only two teams have allowed more yards.

Keenum could use all the help he can get, as he has failed to top even 205 passing yards in three of his last five games, and he has been held to pass attempt numbers in this stretch of 21 // 34 // 42 // 32 // 28. His best bet for production is for the Bengals to take a lead and to force this offense to open things up through the air. With only 7.2 yards per pass attempt on the year, he could have a tough time piling up yardage if the pass attempts remain in the low 30s.

The “most reliable” piece in the Broncos’ passing attack has been Emmanuel Sanders — who has not been truly reliable compared to other name-value wide receivers, with recent bounce-around target counts of 7 // 4 // 9 // 6 // 12, but who does have six touchdowns on the season and five games of 86 or more yards (to go with five games under 60 yards). Quarterback play and his unpredictable target share are greater concerns than the matchup.

Behind Sanders, Courtland Sutton continues to see four to six targets each game. Sutton has exactly three catches and 58 or more yards in four of his last six games, which is a fair range for him in this spot. With a disappointing four red zone targets all season, he is having a difficult time scraping upside — but if he finally pairs an end zone visit with one of these 3-58+ games, he’ll become a useful piece at his price.

DaeSean Hamilton and Tim Patrick have yet to make an impact this season, and neither has seen enough usage for much optimism to exist. Jeff Heuerman has gone to I.R., taking his five targets per game with him. Matt LaCosse stepped in for 27 snaps, 14 pass routes, and four targets last week after Heuerman went down, turning these targets into three catches for 34 yards and a touchdown. Tight ends in this offense do not typically see “upside” looks, but LaCosse did pick up a pair of targets that came 15 yards downfield in last week’s tight end positive matchup against the Steelers. This is another quality tight end matchup against a Bengals team that has allowed the third most touchdowns, the third most receptions, and the fifth most yards to the position. Keenum has been a fan of his tight end this year, making LaCosse stand out as a guesswork-driven but likely-safe salary saver who should pick up three or four receptions on five or six targets.

BRONCOS RUN OFFENSE

It took the rest of the DFS universe some time to catch on, but by now the world is fully aware of the fact that the Bengals are one of the best teams in the NFL to attack with running backs. This team ranks 24th in yards allowed per carry, but more importantly, they rank 31st in drive success rate allowed and 28th in red zone touchdown defense — allowing opponents to put together long drives against them, and to finish these drives in the end zone. This is a perfect setup for spiked production from running backs — and through 11 games, no team in the NFL has allowed more touchdowns to the position. The Bengals rank 31st in time of possession and allow the second most opponent plays per game. With the fifth highest opponent rush play rate allowed, the Bengals have faced the fifth most running back rush attempts in the NFL.

This potential volume spike for the Broncos’ backfield is noteworthy, as this team has no grasp on the idea of the “sunk cost fallacy” — i.e., they continue to force-feed Royce Freeman eight or more touches week in and week out for seemingly no reason other than the fact that he was their higher 2018 draft pick. Freeman is averaging a respectable but unspectacular 4.2 yards per carry. The electric bundle of running back energy known as Phillip Lindsay is averaging 5.8 yards per carry, and he has at least one run of 20+ yards in four of his last five games. In his last three games sharing the field with Freeman, Lindsay has carry counts of 14 // 11 // 14, with target counts of 1 // 5 // 0. His worst yardage game in this stretch was 79 yards, and he has seven touchdowns on the season, giving him plenty of upside on his 14 to 18 looks. He played 63.2% of the Broncos’ snaps last week — a reasonable expectation again in this spot.

BENGALS PASS OFFENSE

The pass game matchup for the Bengals is nonthreatening this week against a Broncos team that ranks 25th in yards allowed per pass attempt, with a league-average aDOT and a league-average catch rate allowed. The Broncos have allowed middling production to the quarterback position (14th most touchdowns, 13th most completions, seventh most yards), and they have allowed wide receivers to pile up the seventh most catches in the league.

Of greater concern for the Bengals is the switch from Andy Dalton to Jeff Driskel — a plus athlete with a backup-caliber profile at the NFL level. Last week, Driskel completed a remarkable 16 of 18 passes between the numbers…while going a remarkably poor seven for 17 on passes outside the numbers. He especially struggled on passes to the right side of the field outside the numbers, going two for eight. In spite of the presence of Chris Harris in the slot, the Broncos have graded out as the number 23 pass defense over the middle by Football Outsiders’ metrics, while ranking fourth on the left side of the field and sixth on the right side. Harris himself has allowed an awesome-low 5.7 yards per pass attempt into his coverage, but he has allowed a 62.5% completion percentage, which will at least give Tyler Boyd opportunities to pick up receptions if the targets are there. Last week, JuJu Smith-Schuster picked up only two catches for nine yards in Harris’ coverage, but the Steelers were able to get him matched up on Bradley Roby for a 7-144-1 line in his coverage. (The Steelers accomplished this by kicking JuJu to the outside on a season-high 47 snaps, playing him in the slot a season-low 19 times — a perfect example of good coaching to out-scheme a matchup disadvantage.) Two weeks ago, Keenan Allen went 6-69-1 against Harris. Of course, Ben to JuJu and Rivers to Keenan is a better setup than Driskel to Boyd, but there will be opportunity for positive production if the targets pile up.

This passing attack has been dead weight behind Boyd, with John Ross catching only seven of 20 targets with A.J. Green on the sidelines, without topping 39 yards in any of these games, and with C.J. Uzomah somehow managing only 103 yards on 22 targets (4.7 yards per target) in this stretch.

The best case for this passing attack would be for Green to return this week and to match up with Roby for most of the game. Roby has given up 672 yards and five touchdowns already this year, and Green will be used on a few downfield routes over the middle of the field if he is out there in Week 13. He’ll carry obvious floor concerns attached to uncertain quarterback play, but he’ll have a shot at notching upside if everything falls into place in this spot.

BENGALS RUN OFFENSE

As explored in this space last week: the Broncos have a reputation this year as an attackable run defense — a reputation built when Isaiah Crowell and Todd Gurley blasted this team for 200+ rushing yards in back-to-back weeks on only 43 total carries. If we remove those two performances from the Broncos’ season, however, they have allowed only 3.75 yards per carry to running backs, and they have recently allowed 53 yards on 13 carries to James Conner, 69 yards on 18 carries to Melvin Gordon, and 50 yards on 16 carries to Kareem Hunt.

In better news for Joe Mixon: after nearly splitting snaps with Giovani Bernard in Week 11 (34 snaps for Mixon // 26 for Gio), Mixon took command in a Week 12 blowout loss, seeing 53 of a possible 74 snaps (71.6%) and touching the ball 21 times. Gio played only 31.1% of the snaps and touched the ball two times. The Bengals average under 60 plays per game (only the Cardinals and Dolphins run fewer plays), and the matchup is difficult, creating floor concerns for Mixon; but if he can touch the ball 20 times again, his chances of reaching upside will be non-awful in this spot.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

The Broncos’ passing attack doesn’t pop off the page with Keenum under center, but it won’t be surprising if Keenum posts a solid quarterback score, and there is certainly opportunity for Manny Sanders or even our boy Sutton to become a difference-maker on the slate. Each guy carries decent floor for his price on this team that has a narrow distribution of targets, and each carries strong point-per-dollar ceiling — likely creating room for Tier 3 placement this week. Behind these guys, LaCosse is no Ebron (he’s even no Njoku), but a solid game at a bottom-barrel price is not a poor bet. LaCosse could matter on this slate if he punches in another touchdown.

The Broncos’ backfield is not a standout spot, but Lindsay is intriguing for the pure per-play upside he carries in any week — with this per-play upside enhanced in a matchup like this. There is also an outside shot that Freeman punches in multiple touchdowns on his eight to 12 touches.

The Bengals’ passing attack is difficult to get excited about, but it is likely that we see the Bengals lean on the run early…only to fail, and to be forced to the air. It won’t be crazy for Driskel to pile up around 250 passing yards and a couple touchdowns, making him a risky but viable salary saver at quarterback.

The Bengals have not given Boyd more than 16 perimeter snaps in any game this year, and they have shown little ability to adjust based on matchup — opening risk that Boyd is stuck on Harris most of the day and goes for low yardage (or low efficiency) on his looks. But if Green is out again, Boyd will certainly be locked into targets — creating slim opportunity for him to hit.

If Green returns, he will also be a risky play given the reality that most of his targets will come outside the numbers — where Driskel struggled last week, and where the Broncos have been strongest; but Green does get some run over the deep middle, giving him opportunity to hit for a big play or two. He’ll carry steady touchdown upside in this spot as well.

I’ll have no significant interest in the Bengals’ backfield, as the Broncos have been tough on the ground, and Mixon’s workload is still a bit insecure. If you want to go here, realize that it’s not impossible for the Bengals’ lead back to crack a hundred yards and/or score a couple touchdowns, but the matchup is a challenge, and Mixon mixes in some risk of a dud in this spot as well.

COLTS // JAGUARS OVERVIEW

This Sunday, the 6-5 Colts will carry their five game win streak to Jacksonville, where they will take on a reeling, 3-8 Jaguars team that is riding seven consecutive losses and is fresh off firing offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, who was handcuffed all year by the irresponsible play of Blake Bortles. Bortles is also on the outs in Jacksonville, as he has been benched for Cody Kessler, who is better equipped than Bortles to do the one thing the Jags have been asking him to do all year: not make mistakes. While the Colts have been on fire this year on offense — racking up the fourth most points per game in the league (behind only the Saints, Chiefs, and Rams) — the Jaguars have tumbled to 28th in points per game. The Colts play at the fastest pace in the NFL and rank sixth in plays per game, while the Jags have been playing at the eighth fastest pace and come into this game ranked seventh in plays per game.

This will not be the easiest game for scoring, as the Vikings are the only team in football that has allowed fewer passing touchdowns than the Jags, and the Jags’ offense has shown an inability all season to produce big point totals when they have the ball. Vegas opened this game with an aggressive Over/Under of 48.5, with Indy installed as slim three point favorites. The Over/Under was quickly bet down to 47.5, and the Colts were quickly bet up to -4.5.

COLTS PASS OFFENSE

In spite of the colossal disappointment that their season has been, the Jaguars have continued to hang tight against the pass — allowing the second lowest catch rate in the NFL, while shaving almost 4% off the league-average YAC/R rate. Only one team has allowed fewer receptions to wide receivers. No team has allowed fewer touchdowns to wide receivers. Only five teams have allowed fewer yards.

When these teams met a few weeks ago, Andrew Luck was called on to throw only 29 times (even with an incredible streak of eight consecutive games with three or more touchdown passes — the best streak since Tom Brady’s historic 2007 season — Luck has recent pass attempt numbers of 23 // 31 // 29 // 29 // 37; three of these games were blowout wins, and another came against the Jags with the Colts running only 55 plays, so these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt), and seven of these targets went to T.Y. Hilton — a solid 24.1% target rate that falls right in line with the 24.6% rate that Hilton has across his last four games. If the Colts run more plays in this spot than they did last time around, Luck could fire off 35 or more pass attempts and Hilton could be in line for eight to 10 looks. He went 3-77-0 on his seven looks in Week 10. The matchup lowers the floor here, but Hilton still carries week-winning upside for his ability to score from anywhere on the field. Optimally, the Colts would move Hilton into the slot a bit more in this matchup to get him away from Jalen Ramsey, but he played only 12 snaps from the slot last time around (28.6% — right in line with his 31% rate on the season).

Behind Hilton, Dontrelle Inman has surprisingly notched recent target counts of 7 // 4 // 6 // 4, going for 34 to 52 yards in each of these games. He continues to play only a portion of this team’s snaps, but he is being fed respectable target counts regardless. Upside, of course, is a long shot in this spot.

Ryan Grant, Chester Rogers, and Zach Pascal are all seeing time on the field, but none of them are seeing enough consistent work to matter.

The man who stands out the most, of course, is our old pal Eric Ebron, who will step into the number one tight end role with Jack Doyle headed to I.R. When Doyle missed time earlier in the year, Ebron’s target counts looked like this:

11 // 10 // 15 // 7 // 7

Only eight teams have allowed fewer catches to tight ends than the Jags this year, and only 11 teams have allowed fewer yards, but this is the most attackable position against the elite Jacksonville defense. Ebron projects to be a big part of whatever passing the Colts do, so volume is not a concern. The matchup introduces some opportunity for Ebron to fail, if you want to bet against the field in this spot; but the likeliest scenario in this offense, at his volume, has him posting an average game at worst, with obvious upside for difference-making production.

If you want to dig deep in this spot, Mo Alie-Cox should step into two to five targets with Doyle out. When these teams last played, 10 of Luck’s 29 passes went to tight ends, with Alie-Cox seeing a season-high four looks. Ebron will soak up the bulk of the tight end work, but the number two on this team will see at least a couple looks, creating thin opportunity for upside.

COLTS RUN OFFENSE

The Jaguars continue to play top-end run defense, allowing only 3.54 yards per carry to running backs on the season when we take away the “only Saquon could do it” run that Saquon Barkley had against them in Week 1. The Jaguars have also allowed only five touchdowns to running backs (the fewest in the NFL), and only two teams have allowed fewer running back receptions than the 44 the Jaguars have given up.

When these teams met in Week 10, Marlon Mack carried the ball 12 times for 29 yards — mixing in two receptions for nine yards. If he is cleared from his concussion in time to play this week, a fair projection for him is 16 to 18 touches, giving him a low floor to go with the thin upside his talent and workload will provide a shot for. If Mack misses, it will likely be Jordan Wilkins handling work on early downs with Nyheim Hines continuing to mix in on passing downs. Either player would need a busted play or a multi-touchdown game too achieve relevance.

JAGUARS PASS OFFENSE

No team in the NFL has forced a shallower average depth of target than the Colts this year, though they have allowed the second highest catch rate in the league, which has led to them ranked a middling 21st in yards allowed per pass attempt. The matchup is not much of a concern for a Jaguars team that is turning the offense over to Cody Kessler — who, in all honesty, is likely an upgrade at the moment. In his career, Kessler has a comfortable 64.5% completion rate, with seven touchdowns and four interceptions — leaning on short passes on the way to an ultra-low YPA mark of 6.54. When he played in Week 7 against the Texans, he completed 21 of his 30 pass attempts in a difficult matchup (a 70% completion rate), at a YPA of only 4.37. The best bet for upside in this offense will be a high-volume pass game, as the Colts’ ability to force short passes combined with Kessler’s tendency to look short will otherwise make it tough for a big yardage game to pile up.

The Jags have become completely uninterested in involving Keelan Cole lately, playing D.J. Chark over him over the last few weeks and then giving Cole only two targets last week with Chark on the sidelines. With Chark (quad) looking likely to miss another game, the Jags are likely to focus primarily on Donte Moncrief and Dede Westbrook through the air, with each guy carrying a low-floor, moderate-upside profile in this matchup. Both players can be used on the short-area throws that are likeliest to give Kessler a chance to produce. Either guy will need a broken play or a touchdown (or two) in order to become an actual difference-maker.

After seeing target counts of 6 // 4 // 6 in his previous three games, James O’Shaughnessy has seen only two targets apiece in his last two games (with only one catch for four yards in that stretch). This entire passing attack has struggled in these games, with Bortles completing only 21 passes for 231 yards across his last two starts (with nine of these catches and 85 of these yards going to running backs). Ultimately, something more like 200 to 250 passing yards for this attack is a fair expectation in this game, creating opportunity for one or two players on this squad to be viable in a good matchup, at depressed price tags. Though with a conservative, backup quarterback under center, there are no guarantees, and raw ceiling will be tough to come by.

JAGUARS RUN OFFENSE

The Colts have quietly been one of the more difficult teams to run on this year, allowing the seventh fewest yards per carry in the league, shaving over 14% off the league-average rate. The Colts have also allowed only five touchdowns on the ground to running backs (only four teams have allowed fewer). The best way to capture upside from backfields against the Colts is with pass-catching backs, as this team has given up the second most catches and the fourth most yards to the position.

With Leonard Fournette having his suspension upheld, he will miss this game and open room for Carlos Hyde and T.J. Yeldon to split the backfield work once again. In the game these two played without Fournette earlier this year, Hyde played 28 snaps and Yeldon played 37, with Hyde seeing six carries and running 13 pass routes, while Yeldon handled only two carries but ran 25 pass routes. Yeldon saw nine targets in that game, and he saw six targets in the Jags’ last game against the Colts (a game in which Fournette touched the ball 29 times). Another six to nine targets is a fair bet for Yeldon, though he is unlikely to see a big chunk of work on the ground, where Hyde will likely see most of the touches. The Jags will likely lean more pass-heavy in this spot, making it tough for Hyde to pop as a yardage-and-touchdown back.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I probably will not bet on Luck this week — in a difficult matchup on the road — but as we have noted ad nauseum lately: Luck is currently in the “always worth considering in tourneys” conversation. The installation of Cody Kessler at quarterback for the Jags should, honestly, give the Jags a better shot at hanging tough in this spot, so there should be enough volume for Luck to have a shot at upside.

Regardless of whether Luck posts a big game or not, Ebron is in line for a strong workload and deserves to be one of the more popular plays on the slate. T.Y. Hilton will carry floor concerns into this spot, but his ceiling remains intact. (Note: Ramsey is now looking iffy for this week’s game. If he misses, Hilton will have an elevated chance of avoiding a dud, while his chances of reaching his ceiling will go up a bit as well.)

It won’t be surprising if one of Moncrief, Dede, or even O’Shaug posts a strong price-considered score, but there are risks involved in targeting this offense at the moment — with Kessler under center, and with Fournette on the sidelines again — and the chances of one of these guys posting a big raw score are slim. I’m not against the pass catchers on this team, but I’m unlikely to go out of my way to roster any of them myself.

Nothing in the Jags’ backfield jumps off the page with Hyde likely to handle most of the work on the ground and Yeldon likely to handle most of the work through the air — though something like a 5-40-0 line through the air is a fair median projection for Yeldon, giving him a shot at price-considered upside if he breaks off a long play or finds the end zone this week. Yeldon has five targets in the red zone this year — which is not great, but is not awful either.

RAMS // LIONS OVERVIEW

Week 13 brings us a couple of severe and laughably unfair mismatches, with the 10-1 Rams traveling to take on the 4-7 Lions, and with the 9-2 Chiefs traveling to take on the 2-9 Raiders. The first of these games (Rams at Lions) gives us a matchup between a Rams team that ranks third in points per game and a Lions team that ranks 24th in points allowed.

One interesting wrinkle in this game is the ball control style of each team, as both rank in the top eight in time of possession, and both also rank top five in fewest opponent plays allowed per game. The Rams have been one of the more run-heavy teams in the NFL, while the Lions have preferred to lean run-heavy when possible. While the Lions have struggled in the red zone (26th in red zone touchdown rate), they rank a respectable 14th in drive success rate on offense, and only four teams have a lower rate of three-and-outs per drive. Unsurprisingly, the Rams are one of these four teams (they rank first in the NFL in this department), and the Rams also rank third in drive success rate when they have the ball. They’ll be taking on a Detroit team that ranks 28th in drive success rate allowed on defense.

Unsurprisingly, the Rams have been installed as early-week 10 point favorites, with an Over/Under in this game of 54.5. Neither side projects to generate an outsized number of plays this week, but each team can post efficient production in this spot — with the Rams an especially attractive team in a positive matchup, with a rested team and two weeks to prepare for the vanilla defensive scheme that Matt Patricia is running with the Lions.

RAMS PASS OFFENSE

Detroit could be in trouble against the Rams’ passing attack this week, as they have allowed the deepest aDOT in the NFL, and they have allowed a 5.4% boost to the league-average catch rate, leading to a number 30 ranking in yards allowed per pass attempt. With Detroit limiting opponent play volume (they have allowed the fewest opponent plays per game in the NFL) and being so attackable on the ground through the first half of the year, they have faced the second fewest pass attempts in the NFL this year…and yet, they have allowed more passing yards than 12 other teams, and they have allowed the sixth most passing touchdowns in the league. Darius Slay has played below expectations this year — allowing a 64.7% completion rate on passes thrown into his coverage, with five touchdowns allowed and a 101.5 quarterback rating allowed — and the Lions’ musical chair setup at their other cornerback spots introduces no reason to be afraid of this matchup.

In their first game without Cooper Kupp, snaps among Rams pass catchers (out of 80 total plays) looked like this:

:: Robert Woods — 79 snaps (11 targets)
:: Josh Reynolds — 78 snaps (8 targets)
:: Brandin Cooks — 70 snaps (12 targets)
:: Tyler Higbee — 59 snaps (7 targets)
:: Gerald Everett — 23 snaps (4 targets)

Jared Goff is much likelier to throw 30 to 35 passes in this spot, after throwing 49 against the Chiefs, so those raw target numbers should not be used as a baseline; but if Goff does throw 35 times (and we assume Gurley sees his typical six looks through the air), something like seven to 10 targets for Cooks/Woods, four to six targets for Reynolds, and seven or eight total targets for the two tight ends is a reasonable expectation.

Against a Chiefs team that also allows one of the deepest aDOTs in the NFL, Woods saw four targets more than 20 yards downfield, with another three targets more than 15 yards downfield. Cooks saw three targets more than 20 yards downfield and another two more than 15 yards downfield. Each guy mixes in high-floor looks close to the line of scrimmage. The only risk here is a potential for limited volume if the Rams control this game from the start. Outside of that slim concern, each guy carries floor and ceiling.

Reynolds played 30 of his 78 snaps out of the slot (38.5%) and took on the intermediate role vacated by Kupp — with seven of his eight targets coming within five to 15 yards of the line of scrimmage. He’s the least likely to pop for big volume, and his targets offer the least upside, but something like a 4-50-0 line is a comfortable range, and he has room to grow from there in all three of receptions, yardage, and touchdowns.

While Higbee had a big edge on Everett in both snaps and targets, he ran only 25 pass routes to Everett’s 18, as this team really likes what they have in the pass game with Everett. Neither guy is likely to pop for a big usage game here (unless the Lions unexpectedly turn this into a back-and-forth affair — unlikely, given their recent “horizontal” style of play), but each guy will be given a few opportunities to produce.

RAMS RUN OFFENSE

If we take away the 70-yard run that Dalvin Cook had against the Lions in their first game with Snacks Harrison plugging up the middle, rushing lines against this team since Harrison was added have looked like this:

19-50-1 to Latavius Murray and Dalvin Cook
35-138-1 to Chris Carson and Mike Davis
18-36-0 to Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen
13-53-0 to Christian McCaffrey
10-27-0 to Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen

In all, that’s 304 yards on 95 carries — good for only 3.2 yards per carry, which would be the best mark in the NFL. Even if we add in the Dalvin Cook run, the Lions hang tough at 3.9 yards per carry (which would tie Baltimore for the sixth lowest mark allowed) — illustrating the strong improvements this unit has made across its last five games. Matchup should never be a major concern when it comes to Todd Gurley and one of the most well-designed run offenses in the NFL, but matchup is at least worth noting for the highest-priced player on the slate.

Rather quietly, the Rams have played six one-score games in their last eight (with a 10-point loss to the Saints and a blowout win over the 49ers their only other games in this stretch), so we have not seen in quite some time how the Rams plan to deploy Gurley in the fourth quarter with a big lead. In their Week 7 blowout win over the 49ers, Gurley ended up playing only 36 of 61 snaps (59%), while Malcolm Brown piled up 25 snaps and 14 touches.

None of this should be perceived as putting Gurley at risk of being a “bad play,” as he has five to seven targets in all but three games this season, and he has the most red zone carries, the most carries inside the 10, and the most carries inside the five in the NFL. He remains one of the safest plays on the slate, but his chances of hitting a score you “have to have in order to win” are lowered in this spot.

LIONS PASS OFFENSE

On a per-pass basis, the Rams have been perfectly average defending the pass this season — allowing a roughly league-average aDOT, catch rate, and YAC/R rate; and with the Rams controlling the clock this year to force the fifth fewest opponent plays per game, they rank middle of the pack in pass attempts faced in spite of constantly playing with a lead. As such, this team has allowed a below-average number of wide receiver receptions and only a slightly above-average number of wide receiver yards — but the Rams have continued to struggle in the red zone, ranking 25th in red zone touchdown rate allowed and giving up the most wide receiver touchdowns in the league.

Aqib Talib is expected to return this week, and he should see plenty of the Lions’ only real threat in Kenny Golladay. With all factors considered, this cannot be deemed more than an average matchup for Golladay (and if Talib returns at full form and takes on Golladay even 40% to 50% of the time, it will prove to be a slightly below-average matchup) — but on the plus side, Golladay has 13, 15, and eight targets across his last three games, and even with defenses piling most of their attention onto him in this stretch (he has managed to haul in only 19 of these 36 targets — “good” for a 52.8% catch rate), he has been able to go for 78 or more yards in each of these spots, while adding a pair of touchdowns. The guaranteed volume helps to raise Golladay’s floor, while his skill set raises his ceiling. The Lions will take a few shots with Golladay, but they are also likely to run him on plenty of shallow crossing routes to simply get the ball into his hands, adding to his floor.

Behind Golladay, the only relevant pass catcher (before we get to the backfield) has been Bruce Ellington, who played 54 out of 66 snaps last week after playing only 33 of 65 the week before while attempting to pick up much of the offense on the fly. Ellington has 16 targets in two games so far, with only two of these targets coming more than six yards downfield (and with none coming more than 10 yards downfield) in what has become an entirely horizontal offense outside of the occasional downfield shot to Golladay. This thins out ceiling for Ellington outside of hoping for a touchdown, but the volume for a solid price-considered floor should be there once again this week.

T.J. Jones has seen only two targets in two games since Marvin Jones went down. Brandon Powell has not played since Marvin went down. Michael Roberts played 23 of 65 snaps last week and saw six targets, but he has topped 16 receiving yards only one time this year.

LIONS RUN OFFENSE

The Rams’ run defense ranks 31st in yards allowed per carry — allowing an increase on the league-average YPC rate of over 17% — making this a disappointing week for exciting rookie Kerryon Johnson to miss. In Kerryon’s absence last week, LeGarrette Blount operated as the clear lead “yardage and touchdown” back — playing 33 out of 65 snaps (50.8%), seeing 19 carries and only one target. In that same game, Theo Riddick operated as the clear “pass-catching only” back, playing 29 snaps and seeing seven targets (7-48-0 through the air), but taking only two carries. Riddick played 26 out of his 29 snaps in the backfield — his highest rate of backfield snaps since Week 1. After playing 14 and 29 snaps at receiver in Weeks 9 and 10, Riddick has dropped to eight and three such snaps the last two weeks with Bruce Ellington emerging as a viable option in the slot. Blount has a quality matchup but will be at risk of a complete dud if either A) the Rams jump out to a big, early lead, or B) he fails to score. Riddick has seen six to eight targets in four consecutive games and should be involved through the air once again in a game the Lions are likely to be trailing. Somewhere in the range of 5-40-0 is a fair median projection for him, with upside for a big play or a score from there.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

The only big concerns on the Rams’ side of the ball is the fear that they run away with this game against the soft Lions defense and the non-aggressive Lions offense. As long as volume is there for Cooks and Woods, they will have opportunities to produce as two of the top price-considered plays on the slate, while Goff will have an opportunity to join them. Gurley is also hampered a bit by the volume concerns — which are more of a concern for me than the matchup. As always: I expect a strong score from Gurley, though his chances of going for “a score you have to have” are a bit lower than normal in this spot, making him more appropriately priced than underpriced.

Behind these guys, Reynolds, Higbee, and Everett are all in the conversation as salary savers with upside. This offense will flow through Gurley, Woods, and Cooks first, but there will be a few opportunities for these other three to get involved.

It’s difficult to get too excited about a Lions passing attack that has become one of the least downfield-oriented units in the league, with only a couple downfield shots to Golladay each week separating Matthew Stafford from Sam Darnold. With that said: it is all but guaranteed the Lions will have to pass in this spot, which will pile up floor opportunities for both Golladay and Ellington, with Golladay being given some shots for ceiling as well. Ellington could pop for ceiling with a busted play or an unpredictable touchdown. Each guy is very much in the conversation this week.

I am hopeful I will not end up scraping around in the Lions’ backfield, as Blount doesn’t carry a comfortable floor, and Riddick has yet to show any significant ceiling. Blount is best saved for large-field tourneys, where his ownership is sure to be low even after his two touchdown game on Thanksgiving, and where he does still carry multi-touchdown upside. Riddick is a floor play with only a thin shot at ceiling, making him viable but not particularly attractive.

CHIEFS // RAIDERS OVERVIEW

May the Lord have mercy on the souls of the Raiders this week. On defense, the tanking Raiders rank 30th in points allowed, 22nd in drive success rate allowed, 32nd in rushing yards allowed per game, 26th in yards allowed per game, 24th in takeaways, and 32nd in sacks. They will be taking on a Chiefs offense that ranks second in points scored, second in drive success rate, and third in yards per game. On the other side of the ball, only two teams have taken more sacks than the Raiders, only six teams have notched a lower drive success rate, only four teams have a higher rate of three-and-outs, and only three teams have been worse at converting red zone visits into touchdowns. Last week, Marcell Ateman was the most targeted receiver on a Raiders squad that traded Amari Cooper, lost Martavis Bryant to injury, and is stuck using Jordy Nelson as a number one receiver for shell-shocked quarterback Derek Carr. Crazy things can happen in the NFL, but with Andy Reid and the Chiefs’ historic, speed-oriented offense coming off the bye to take on an old, slow Raiders defense, this game projects to get ugly early on. The Raiders are doing their best at this point to lose games in their pursuit of the first overall pick, and the Chiefs have every reason to chase wins as they look to protect the number one overall seed in the AFC playoffs. The Chiefs opened as 15.0 point favorites in a game with an Over/Under of 55.5.

CHIEFS PASS OFFENSE

The old, slow Raiders defense has no real hope of slowing down Patrick Mahomes and the awesome Chiefs passing attack — with this team allowing an 8.5% increase on the league-average aDOT, and allowing the most yards per pass attempt in the NFL with a league-worst, no-other-team-even-close YAC/R rate allowed. On the season, the Raiders have allowed a 27.6% increase on the league-average YAC/R rate. The Dolphins have been the second worst team, at +20.3%. The next worst team is Washington, all the way down at +12.2%. The Raiders particularly struggle with speed. The only thing that can slow down the Chiefs this week is a blowout. The Raiders have faced the fewest pass attempts in the NFL this year, at an absurdly low average of 27.9 opponent pass attempts per game.

In further good news for the Chiefs, Mahomes has thrown 34 or fewer passes in five games this season, and he has notched touchdown totals in those games of 4 // 6 // 4 // 3 // 2 — with that two-touchdown game coming against a tougher Cardinals defense. If volume dips, it will be because the Chiefs picked up a bunch of early yards and points — creating a situation in which PPR and half-PPR receiving outputs could get dented a bit, but in which yardage and touchdown ceilings will remain. This is not a team that will take its foot off the gas until the late third or early fourth quarter, providing room for these players to hit.

Targeting this offense becomes a bit easier with Sammy Watkins expected to miss another week. Watkins missed Week 10 and hardly played in Week 11 (five snaps), leading to target counts of 10 and 14 for Tyreek Hill — good for a monstrous 32.4% target rate. His 10-target game came with Mahomes throwing only 28 times, making seven to 10 targets a fair expectation this week even if passing volume falls shy of 30. It is terrifying to bet on a “seven to 10 target” receiver in a likely blowout at the highest end of the price range…but legitimately, Hill carries the highest raw upside on the slate, at any position. He has posted five scores this year that would wreck your roster at his price, but he has posted another four scores that you needed to have in order to win. With Watkins out, Hill’s floor becomes a bit safer in the best possible matchup for his skill set and usage.

Travis Kelce has also seen big usage with Watkins out, with seven and 15 targets in his last two games — good for a 29.7% share. To put this 62.1% combined target share for Kelce and Hill into perspective: Diggs and Thielen each rank top three in the NFL in targets per game, and they have combined for 53.2% of Cousins’ targets on the year. JuJu and AB each rank top nine in the NFL in targets per game, and they have combined for 49.2% of Ben’s looks. Even if volume becomes an issue for this passing attack as a whole, Hill and Kelce should be the main pieces piling up the yards and scores that lead to the blowout.

Behind these two, Chris Conley played 64 out of 72 snaps in Week 11, Demetrius Harris played 39 snaps at tight end, and Demarcus Robinson played 35 snaps. Conley saw eight targets against the Rams — benefitting from the shootout nature of that game. He saw only two targets the week before. Robinson has four and two targets in the Chiefs’ last two games, and Harris has zero and two targets. None of these guys are more than dart throws in a game in which Kansas City should have no trouble piling up yards and points with Kelce, Hill, and Hunt.

CHIEFS RUN OFFENSE

Oakland has been one of the worst teams in the league against…well, everything — including the run, where they have allowed the fifth most yards per carry while facing the second most running back rush attempts and allowing the most running back rushing yards. With teams passing so infrequently against the Raiders, they have allowed the fewest running back receptions in the league, but even with this they have allowed more receiving yards to running backs than seven other teams. The only major concern for Kareem Hunt in this spot is volume, as the Chiefs have held him to 17 or fewer rush attempts in six consecutive games, and he has three or fewer receptions in three straight contests. Incredibly, Hunt has topped 100 rushing yards only one time all season (though he has gone for 70+ rushing yards in six of his last seven). The matchup is tremendous, and Hunt’s 14 touchdowns on the year point to the upside he can generate, but this ceiling has boosted his price a bit high for the floor, making him more appealing in tourneys than in cash games

Behind Hunt, it won’t be surprising if Spencer Ware touches the ball five to eight times in a blowout, which could allow him to pop a long play into the box score — but that’s obviously a long-shot bet.

RAIDERS PASS OFFENSE

Matchup has hardly mattered this season for this minor-league, dink-and-dunk Raiders passing attack — which has failed to produce even 200 passing yards in four of its last six games, while topping 250 yards zero times in that stretch. The Chiefs play an aggressive, attacking style of defense with a lot of tight man coverage — a setup that allows opponents to attack downfield in this matchup, but that has produced a below-average catch rate. Neither of these elements match up well with a Raiders team that ranks dead last in average intended air yards, with the average pass from Derek Carr traveling an embarrassing 6.3 yards downfield. The Minnesota Vikings have had the best passing touchdown defense this year, allowing only 14 touchdowns to enemy quarterbacks. Derek Carr has essentially turned his average opponent into the Vikings, tossing only 13 touchdown passes all year.

The one bonus for this Raiders passing attack is the fact that they should be chasing points. It’s tough to say how valuable this is after Carr went two for nine last week on passes that traveled 10 or more yards downfield (one week after going three for 11 on such throws).

Seventh round rookie Marcell Ateman has suddenly become the primary pass catcher on this team with Brandon LaFell and Martavis Bryant out of action — seeing 15 targets across the last two weeks, and going 7-66-0 on these looks. Ateman has gone 1-32-0 on his six targets that have traveled 10 or more yards downfield, but he has gone a less embarrassing 6-44-0 on the nine targets that have come within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. He’s a dart throw in this spot, but he’s not without upside potential with a chance to connect on something in garbage time.

Jordy Nelson has all but disappeared lately, with zero catches on two targets across his last two games, and with no games since Week 5 above 16 receiving yards. Seth Roberts is a floor play salary-saver for his underneath role in this offense; he’s unlikely to fail at his price, but he’s unlikely to pop for much upside given his role and the struggles of this offense.

This “attack” wraps with Jared Cook, who continues to play around half of the Raiders’ snaps as they attempt to lose games. Cook has seen five or more targets in four of his last five games, giving him some potential to hit — though his attachment to this pathetic offense keeps his floor a bit low, with only one game in his last four above 32 yards.

RAIDERS RUN OFFENSE

The Chiefs have been one of the easiest teams in the NFL to run on — allowing the fourth highest opponent yards per carry and boosting the league-average YPC mark by 13% — but with this team constantly playing with a lead, they have faced the eighth fewest opponent carries in the league.

“Playing from behind” is nothing new for the Raiders, with Doug Martin seeing recent carry counts of 13 // 11 // 15 // 10 // 11 (chipping in an average of two catches for 19 receiving yards in this stretch). On a tanking team with nothing to play for, it won’t be a shock if the veteran sees his snaps dry up one week without warning, but you should be able to comfortably project yet another game with around 50 rushing yards and around 2-20-0 through the air, giving him a thin path to price-considered upside if he scores. Of course, the Raiders have the second fewest touchdowns in the NFL this year.

Behind Martin, DeAndre Washington saw his carries drop last week from 12 to three, while he played only eight snaps.

Jalen Richard continues to dominate pass game work, with four or more targets in nine consecutive games. He has maxed out at eight targets (and has maxed out at 59 receiving yards), making it difficult for him to hit for upside with only four red zone targets and three red zone carries all season; but he should carry decent floor once again in this spot, as the Raiders will have to feed him the ball through the air as they fall behind.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I am not a big fan of the price tags on Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce, but I like all three plays quite a bit from a projection perspective. There is certainly a case to be made for choosing Hill over Gurley or CMC in tourneys, if forced to choose, and there is a case to be made for paying up for Kelce at tight end. With Ebron underpriced this week, he makes more sense — but this should also leave ownership on Kelce a bit thinner than it should be. The likely blowout nature of this game is the only major concern for these three, but they will likely be the cause of the blowout — allowing them to pile up yards and scores before the offense shuts down for the fourth quarter.

I wanted to like Hunt in this matchup more than I do, but his consistently limited volume makes him difficult to bet on from a floor perspective. His touchdown and big-play upside helps him rank among the highest ceilings on the slate, but at his price, he’s more iffy-floor, high-ceiling than he is lock-and-load play.

The Raiders should be trailing in this game, but that has not mattered much for upside in this Raiders passing attack, which matches up poorly with the benefits the Chiefs’ defense provides. If anyone in this passing unit ends up popping this week, Ateman and Cook would be the likeliest candidates — making them worthy large-field tourney darts; though each guy carries an iffy floor, and neither is much more than a “hope and pray” play.

The Raiders’ backfield is largely unattractive, though Richard provides solid price-considered floor (especially on full-PPR sites), while Martin could provide above-average price-considered production with a touchdown. I’ll likely be hunting for higher ceilings myself, but neither guy is a poor play this week.

JETS // TITANS OVERVIEW

The Jekyll and Hyde Titans return home off an embarrassing Monday night loss to their division rivals in Houston to take on a 3-8 Jets team that has lost five consecutive games and is playing out the string for a dead-in-the-water head coach. Unsurprisingly, this game does not pop off the page — with the Jets doing little on offense all year and the Titans typically showing up on defense against poor teams, and with the Titans’ offense offering little all year (ranking 29th in yards per carry and picking up the third fewest passing yards per game). The Titans rank 31st in pace of play and 29th in pass play rate, which will allow them to shorten this game against a Jets team that is unlikely to jump out to a big, early lead, and that ranks middle of the pack in yards allowed per carry. The Jets’ offense suffers three-and-outs at the second highest rate in the league, while the Titans rank 25th in this category when they have the ball. This is a game that should feature a decent number of punts and defensive stops, with guys who see volume and/or guys who generate big plays the only viable places to look. With neither team likely to pull away from the other in any significant way, this could turn into a slow-moving affair — as backed up by the early-week game total from Vegas of 41.0, with the Titans installed as 9.5 point favorites.

JETS PASS OFFENSE

Tennessee has been tremendous on defense after the catch, allowing the fourth lowest YAC/R rate in the league — but otherwise, they have been merely average, ranking middle of the pack in both aDOT and catch rate allowed. This has led to them ranking 12th in yards allowed per pass attempt. The Titans have allowed only 16 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks (just two more than league leader Minnesota) — but it is worth noting that they are the only team in the NFL to allow zero receiving touchdowns to running backs, and they are the only team in the NFL to allow zero touchdowns to tight ends…while they have given up 16 touchdowns to wide receivers — the fifth most in the league. Only six teams have allowed more receptions to wide receivers. Of course, all of this would matter more if the Titans were facing a better passing attack, with better wide receivers.

Right now, it appears that the Jets will hold out Sam Darnold for another week — which may not be a bad idea as this team aims to protect the confidence of the youngest quarterback in the league. McCown’s gunslinger mentality is likelier to produce quality wide receiver stat lines; floor and ceiling will be dented in this already-weak offense if Darnold is under center.

In McCown’s two starts, he has piled up 79 pass attempts, with targets among primary pass catchers shaking out as follows:

:: Jermaine Kearse — 17
:: Quincy Enunwa — 12
:: Robby Anderson — 5 (one game only)
:: Chris Herndon — 12

Kearse has caught only eight of his 17 targets from McCown, for 82 yards and a touchdown. He’ll primarily battle Logan Ryan in the slot — a matchup that is winnable in general, but not necessarily for Kearse.

Enunwa has hauled in eight of his 12 targets for 91 yards. He’ll see a decent amount of Malcolm Butler and Adoree Jackson — each of whom can be hammered for touchdowns and big plays, creating some price-considered optimism in this spot for the Jets’ most consistent receiver.

Anderson has five or more targets in seven of his last eight games. While he has topped 44 yards only one time all season, he is the only guy on this squad with the ability to score from anywhere on the field — keeping him in the tourney conversation.

Herndon will have a tougher time piling up yardage in this spot, and he’ll be looking to become the first tight end in the league to score a touchdown vs the Titans.

JETS RUN OFFENSE

The Titans have been perfectly average on the ground in yards allowed per carry — though their numbers in this area looked a whole lot better before Lamar Miller went 97 yards on a single carry against them in Week 12, as they came into that game shaving over 10% off the league-average yards allowed per carry. Consider this a tougher-than-average matchup, against a team that has allowed the second fewest running back touchdowns in the league.

The Jets’ backfield continues to split touches between Isaiah Crowell and Elijah McGuire, with Crow seeing touch counts of 14 // 9 // 9 since McGuire returned, and with McGuire going 10 // 9 // 7. Either player will need a broken play or a multi-touchdown game in order to achieve relevance. McGuire has not topped 30 yards on the ground since returning. Crowell has topped 49 yards only two times all season.

TITANS PASS OFFENSE

The Jets have been slightly above-average against the pass this year, ranking 11th in yards allowed per pass attempt while knocking almost 4% off the league-average catch rate and largely preventing coverage breakdowns. As explored repeatedly this season: the best way to beat this team is with crossing routes out of the slot (particularly downfield crossing routes out of the slot). The only wide receiver on this team who has carried actual upside has been Corey Davis, who plays 32% of his snaps from the slot. Matchup has hardly mattered for Davis, as he posted a strong game last week on only four targets against the stout Texans defense, and he is the only receiver this year who has gotten the better of Stephon Gilmore. Of greater concern for Davis is his attachment to a passing offense that ranks dead last in the NFL in pass attempts and 30th in passing yards. Marcus Mariota’s recent pass attempt numbers in games he has started and finished look like this:

26 // 15 // 32 // 29 // 24 // 23

With such low volume on this team, Davis’ number four ranking in the NFL in percentage share of team air yards obviously needs to be taken with a grain of salt (there are not many air yards in this offense, so soaking up 41.7% of those air yards is still leaving him a bit thin on bankable volume) — but we do know that Davis will be the first guy involved on this team through the air.

Behind Davis, Tajae Sharpe has topped 37 yards only once, while the speed duo of Taywan Taylor and Cameron Batson has only one game between them of more than 36 yards. If Taylor returns this week, he’ll see the two or three targets that this role yields, while Batson will return to the bench.

Production has spiked in recent weeks on Jonnu Smith — with three touchdowns in his last four games, and with a solid 6-44-0 line in the week without a touchdown — though a closer look reveals a lot of smoke and mirrors, with only one game all season north of three targets. Jonnu will do battle this week with Jamaal Adams, who has keyed one of the best tight end coverage units in the NFL. No team in the league has allowed fewer receptions to the position.

TITANS RUN OFFENSE

The Jets have essentially defined the league average in yards allowed per carry — ranking 15th in the league — but with this team struggling to maintain drives when they have the ball and regularly playing from behind, they have faced the fifth most opponent plays per game and the seventh highest opponent rush play rate, leading to this team facing the fourth most rush attempts in the NFL. This is good news for a Titans team that ranks fourth in the league in rush play rate. The Jets have allowed the eighth most rushing yards to running backs and the sixth most rushing touchdowns to the position.

Good news thins out a bit from there, as this team continues to struggle for production on the ground — ranking 29th in adjusted line yards and 29th in yards per carry. Derrick Henry has recent carry counts of 12 // 6 // 11 // 9 // 8, with only six catches across these five games — making him almost entirely touchdown-dependent. Dion Lewis has touch counts in this stretch of 19 // 23 // 22 // 11 // 14, with 20 of these touches (4.0 per game) coming through the air. The best bet for production here is to hope for a multi-score game from Henry, or to hope that Lewis breaks one of his receptions for a big play. The Jets have been boom/bust as a run defense, ranking third in Football Outsiders’ power rank, but allowing the most run plays of 20+ yards on the year.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

There is nothing on the Jets that stands out to me this week, as this has been one of the five worst offenses in the NFL, and the Titans have been one of the best defenses in the league in spite of a couple games in which they have completely fallen apart. If Sam Darnold is under center, I’ll stay away from this unit entirely. If it’s McCown, I’ll give consideration to Enunwa and Anderson as salary-savers — with Enunwa the floor play, and Anderson the ceiling play — though neither is likely to end up anywhere close to my Main Build.

Corey Davis is intriguing from an upside perspective — though with the Titans likely to control this game against a team that already faces a high rush play rate, volume on this passing attack is almost certain to be a concern, making Davis more boom/bust than high-floor/high-ceiling. Behind Davis, this is one of the least attractive passing attacks in the league. I’ll be happy leaving it alone.

It won’t be surprising if one of Henry or Lewis posts a solid game here (with Lewis the likelier bet), but neither guy carries a high floor, and neither guy is particularly likely to hit. Volume should be on the side of this rushing attack, but the good news essentially ends there, as this volume will still be spread between two guys, and this run offense as a whole has been a dud this year.

VIKINGS // PATRIOTS OVERVIEW

The 8-3 Patriots vs the 6-4-1 Vikings is one of the more exciting games on the slate from a real-life perspective, as this game matches up two teams that were among the last four standing in the playoffs last season, with major 2018 playoff implications in this game as well. If the season ended today, the Vikings would edge into the top Wild Card spot in the NFC, while the Patriots would enter the postseason with a first-round bye as the number two seed in the AFC.

This is also an exciting game from a style of play perspective, as each of these teams ranks top eight in pace of play, and each also ranks top 10 in plays per game. With the Patriots playing a bend-but-don’t-break defense and forcing teams to throw to keep up (fifth highest opponent pass play rate in the league), they are also allowing the seventh most opponent plays per game. The Vikings rank top five in pass play rate, and they will be happy to attack through the air in this spot — creating opportunities for a back-and-forth affair.

The biggest matchup for fantasy upside will take place in the red zone, where the Vikings have allowed the second lowest red zone touchdown rate in the league, and the Patriots — while ranking 17th in red zone touchdown rate allowed — have been better in the red zone at home, and they are taking on a Vikings team that has struggled in this part of the field (25th in red zone touchdown rate). Vegas has opened the Patriots as aggressive favorites at -6.0. This game carries an attractive Over/Under of 48.5.

VIKINGS PASS OFFENSE

With the Patriots failing to get any pressure on quarterbacks this year (30th in adjusted sack rate) and running one of the man-heaviest coverage schemes in the NFL, they are allowing the second deepest average depth of target in the NFL. Unlike Matt Patricia’s unit in Detroit, however (which is the only team that has allowed a deeper aDOT than the Patriots — and has boosted opponent catch rate by 5.3% above the league average), the Patriots are allowing the third lowest catch rate in the NFL, behind only the Ravens and Jaguars. This has led to the Patriots ranking fifth in yards allowed per pass attempt — and it creates a situation where volume is important for wide receivers going against them.

Of course, “volume” is one of the first words that comes to mind when you think of the Vikings’ passing attack, which has thrown the ball at the fourth highest rate in football while racking up the third most pass attempts in the league. Eleven games into the season, there are only two players in football seeing more targets per game than the 11.3 that Adam Thielen is seeing. Incredibly, one of those two players is Stefon Diggs, who is tied with Julio Jones for the NFL lead in targets per game at 11.4.

The matchup is not great for either Diggs or Thielen, as the Patriots worry less about slot vs perimeter duties and instead tend to play matchups — which will likely put Stephon Gilmore on Diggs and Jason McCourty on Thielen. Gilmore has allowed only 27 catches on 61 passes thrown into his coverage (44.3%), while McCourty has allowed 32 catches on 62 pass attempts that have come his way (51.6%). Thielen has hauled in 93 of 124 targets this year (75%), with a 58% slot rate that creates easier throws for Kirk Cousins. Diggs has hauled in 79 of 114 targets (69.3%), with a lot of these completions coming at or around the line of scrimmage. Diggs mixes in three or four downfield looks each week with all the short passes that come his way, giving him a path to upside. These are two of the most elite route-runners in the NFL, and each guy can make tight-window catches, creating plenty of opportunity for each to pay off in what should be a pass-heavy game script for the visiting team. Each guy should also be able to run a good 20% to 30% of his routes on coverage liabilities Jonathan Jones or J.C. Jackson.

Behind these two, it’s Laquon Treadwell on the field for most of the game but seeing almost no schemed work and simply running into around three targets per game. He’ll need a broken play or two to be relevant. Kyle Rudolph has seen recent target counts of 7 // 2 // 5 // 7, though his yardage upside is slim in this offense, requiring him to hit for a touchdown in order to make a dent.

VIKINGS RUN OFFENSE

The New England Patriots have been perfectly average against the run this year, ranking 14th in rushing yards allowed and 18th in yards allowed per carry, creating opportunities for running backs to pick up yards between the 20s. Of greater concern for Dalvin Cook is the fact that only three teams have allowed fewer touchdowns to running back this season than the Patriots, along with the fact that the Vikings are one of the pass-heaviest teams in the NFL, and Cook has not topped 10 carries in a game since Week 1. Especially on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, Cook is priced more for his name value than for his actual usage or production. With Latavius Murray taking recent carry counts of 10 // 4 // 11 (to Cook’s recent stretch of 10 // 9 // 10), the Vikings’ lead back is going to need a highly efficient afternoon or a spike in workload to be relevant on this slate.

PATRIOTS PASS OFFENSE

The Vikings’ secondary slowed down yet another group of wide receivers last week against Green Bay. Since giving up 100+ yards to all three of Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, and Cooper Kupp in the same game, the Vikings have now played seven more times, including matchups against the Eagles, the Saints, the Lions, the Bears, and the Packers. Not one receiver has topped even 81 yards against them. The Vikings have allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the league. Only four teams have allowed fewer passing yards per game.

This creates a very difficult spot for “upside” from Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon, who have dominated looks among Patriots wide receivers across the last two months. Since Edelman returned, target counts between these two have looked like this:

:: Edelman — 9 // 7 // 8 // 10 // 10 // 12 // 5
:: Gordon — 4 // 9 // 7 // 6 // 10 // 12 // 5

Gordon should primarily match up with Xavier Rhodes, who has struggled a bit this season, allowing 37 receptions on 54 passes thrown into his coverage (68.5%), while allowing two touchdowns and picking off only one pass. Gordon’s connection with Tom Brady has not yet matured, but he will be given opportunities to hit this week.

Edelman’s floor is fairly matchup proof — but his primary role in this game will likely be to catch underneath passes and help move the chains, making it difficult for him to reach upside without the help of heavy volume and/or a touchdown.

At tight end for this team, Rob Gronkowski has been removed from the injury report, and he should be a full go this week after seeing seven to eight targets in four of his last five games. Gronk’s 15.8 yards per reception on the year sits above his career average of 15.2, and his 64% catch rate is his third highest in the last six years. His 63.0 receiving yards per game rank as his worst mark since his rookie year in 2010, but it’s not far off his career average of 69.8. All that to say: Gronk’s production has not been too terribly different from what it was in the past, with his two touchdowns on the season making his year look worse than it truly has been. He is not seeing the usage of guys like Kelce, Ertz, and Kittle, but he certainly remains in the conversation. The Vikings have been above average against tight ends this season, but relative to their other strengths, it has been the best way to attack them. Gronk projects for another seven to nine looks this week.

PATRIOTS RUN OFFENSE

The Bears are the only team in the NFL that has been more difficult to run on than the Vikings this year, with Minnesota shaving 18.6% off the league-average yards per carry rate, while allowing the second fewest running back touchdowns in the NFL — and while the Patriots are always growing and adjusting as an offense, this is the type of spot over the years in which this team will put the ball in the hands of Tom Brady and allow him to take over the game. If the Patriots do indeed take this approach, it would become difficult for Sony Michel to matter this week, with his six total receptions on the season leaving him as one of the most yardage-and-touchdown dependent backs in the league. If Michel instead sees the 18 to 24 carries he has notched in four games this season, he’ll have opportunity to produce. Michel has five total touchdowns in those higher-carry games, with no touchdowns in his other four games.

The Patriots changed things up with James White last week, giving him only five targets (his second fewest on the year), but handing him the ball nine times — a season high for games in which Michel was healthy. White’s value has primarily come through the 10 touchdowns he has produced, though his price on all sites has dropped to a point where he is attractive for the eight or more targets he could see. Michel has been healthy for seven games this year, and White has seen eight or more targets in four of those.

Usage in this backfield will get spread out a bit with Rex Burkhead returning from I.R. this week. Burkhead is expected to play limited snaps — but any snaps from a third back are bad news, making Michel and White more difficult to bet on in cash games.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I like Cousins this week as a surprisingly underpriced play on all three sites, in a game in which the Vikings will likely be throwing plenty. Cousins has been up-and-down this year and the Patriots’ defense has done a good job limiting blowup quarterback games — creating a setup that is not devoid of risk; but Cousins’ likeliest scenario provides a solid floor of around 270 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns, with some upside from there. I also like Thielen (no surprise there, as he has gone for 100+ yards in nine of 11 games this year), and I like the upside on Diggs even if his floor is a bit lower than I would love at the price.

It’s not crazy to think that Dalvin Cook will see more like 14 or 15 carries this week (to go with the three to five targets that we can typically depend on him seeing), which could give him a shot to hit for a spiked week; but he’ll need some things to go right (a long play or a rise in workload) to justify a roster spot this week, making him a longer-shot play on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, and putting him simply “in the conversation” against the players priced around him on FanDuel.

While this game should feature points, and the Patriots should find ways to score, it will be difficult to find a player on the Patriots on whom you can feel comfortable betting that both yards and scores will pile up together. Any of Gronk, White, Edelman, Gordon, or Michel (in that order) could post a solid yardage game (with receptions adding to the fantasy outputs of the first four), and any of those five could post a touchdown or two as well. The likeliest outcome is that each of these guys fails to post enough yards/receptions to truly matter at his price, leaving us betting on multi-touchdown games. With that said: none of the first four are likely to destroy your roster without a touchdown, making these guys viable in tourneys even in a difficult matchup. Gronk and White come closest to cash game relevance.

49ERS // SEAHAWKS OVERVIEW

Welcome to 2018, where this one-time rivalry game now pairs a red hot 6-5 Seahawks team and a 2-9 San Francisco squad that has posted an 0-6 record on the road and is once again playing for next year. The Seahawks need this win for their seemingly inevitable march toward the playoffs. The 49ers will try to hang tough for as long as they can as they play games at this point to avoid embarrassment. With the Seahawks carrying the run-heaviest offense in the league into this game, the 49ers will have to surprise on offense for volume to pile up in the Seahawks’ pass game. This will be tough for the visiting team to accomplish, with checkdown specialist Nick Mullens at the helm against a Seattle defense that has allowed the eighth fewest points per game in the NFL. Seattle ranks 24th in pace of play and fifth in time of possession. Only one team has allowed fewer plays per game than the Seahawks this year. Unsurprisingly, Pete Carroll’s squad has been installed as early 10-point favorites, with an Over/Under in this game of 46.0. It will be up to Kyle Shanahan to find ways to get the 49ers to their Vegas-implied team total of 18.0, as this unit does not have the talent to generate many points in this spot without strong, scheme-based play-calling and maneuvering.

49ERS PASS OFFENSE

Seattle has played their typically tight defense downfield this year, forcing teams to primarily stick to short throws — which opponents are completing at a rate 3.82% higher than the league average. The matchup is not nearly as much of a concern for the 49ers as are the talent deficiencies on this offense, with Nick Mullens at quarterback, and with some combination of Kendrick Bourne, Dante Pettis, Pierre Garcon, Trent Taylor, and Richie James Jr. at wide receiver. If Marquise Goodwin returns, he’ll be in the mix as well, with the pecking order among all these pass catchers (in terms of both playing time and targets) looking like this:

Goodwin // Garcon // Bourne/Pettis // James Jr. // Taylor

Bourne has played ahead of Pettis, but he saw only three targets last week, compared to Pettis’ seven (one week after each guy saw six). If Garcon or Goodwin misses more time, either Bourne or Pettis could see another steady stream of targets. These two would become more valuable dart throws if Goodwin misses, as one or the other would take on a couple of the downfield targets that are designed to stretch the defense with Goodwin.

If Garcon plays, he’s a “hope for a broken play” option.

If Goodwin plays, he will carry the most upside on this team with an opportunity for five targets — with a couple of these looks coming over the deep middle, creating opportunities for splash plays. Naturally: the quality of these targets lowers the chances of them connecting.

This unit wraps up with George Kittle, who now has 10 and 12 targets in his last two games from Mullens, good for an awesome 30.1% target rate. The Seahawks have faced 32.9 pass attempts per game on the year, while facing a middling opponent pass play rate. The 49ers lean run-heavy in their play-calling, but 30 pass attempts is a strong median projection, and seven to 10 of these should go to Kittle. Souring expectations for Kittle is a tough matchup with Bradley McDougald, who has keyed a tight end coverage defense that has allowed the second fewest receptions and the fewest yards to the position.

49ERS RUN OFFENSE

Matt Breida has been capped at 14 to 17 carries this year — an occupational hazard of being a “lead back” in a Kyle Shanahan offense; but he is very much the lead back at this point, and he has added a line of around 3-30-0 through the air in five of his healthy games, giving his floor a solid boost. The Seahawks have allowed a below average number of receptions to running backs, but they have allowed the sixth most receiving yards; they rank 20th in DVOA against the run and have allowed a poor 4.74 yards per carry to running backs. To put these numbers in some perspective, it is worth noting that they have faced Ezekiel Elliott, David Johnson, Todd Gurley (twice), Kerryon Johnson, Melvin Gordon, Aaron Jones, and Christian McCaffrey. Outside zone runs have been especially successful against the Seahawks’ run defense — which is where Breida does the majority of his damage.

SEAHAWKS PASS OFFENSE

The Seahawks continue to operate as the only team in the NFL throwing the ball on under 50% of their offensive plays — and in games in which the Seahawks are playing with a lead, this run-leaning tendency heightens, creating obvious volume concerns for this passing attack in a game in which this team is favored by 10 points. Russell Wilson has topped 31 pass attempts only once in his last nine games — in a loss to the Chargers. Somewhere in the range of 26 to 29 attempts is a strong median projection for Russ here, which leaves us once again betting on efficiency in targeting these pass catchers.

As explored last week, Tyler Lockett has been the most efficient receiver on this offense — converting 81.1% of his targets into receptions, and pairing this efficiency with a respectable average depth of target of 12.2 — though this efficiency and his touchdown production have caused his price to continue trickling upward, marking him as a guy with lower floor than his price now indicates. Any guy seeing only four to six targets week in and week out is going to disappoint at some point, but Lockett does still retain solid point-per-dollar upside.

Behind Lockett, Doug Baldwin has an aDOT of 10.2, with recent target counts of 4 // 5 // 10 // 7. Baldwin’s route tree gives him fewer opportunities for big YAC gains (his xYAC/R of 3.8 is a full 1.4 yards shy of Lockett’s mark of 5.2), but he has failed to connect with Russ on a few potential touchdowns recently, giving him some upside that has not yet popped up in the box scores.

David Moore has been the least efficient receiver on this squad, hauling in 59.5% of his targets, but as explored in this space last week: with the fifth deepest aDOT in the NFL, Moore carries a low-floor, high-upside profile on his four to five expected looks. The 49ers shave almost 4% off the league-average catch rate and allow a below-average number of 20+ yard pass plays, but it won’t be surprising if one of these receivers finds a way to gain relevance on the slate.

Behind the wide receivers, Nick Vannett has recent target counts of 2 // 2 // 2. He’s nothing more than a dart throw.

SEAHAWKS RUN OFFENSE

The 49ers are shaving almost 10% off the league-average YPC rate, and they have allowed the 10th fewest rushing yards in the league; but while the matchup may be unspectacular for the Seahawks, we do know they are going to run the ball. Behind Chris Carson, the “number two” job has been split between Mike Davis and Rashaad Penny lately, with Davis seeing a few more snaps but Penny seeing a few more touches. While these two have rotated Number Two work, Carson has remained in the lead, with 17 and 16 carries in his last two games. Carson has only 13 targets and only 10 receptions all season, making him one of the most yardage-and-touchdown dependent backs in the league.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Outside of Kittle, the 49ers’ passing attack has been unattractive ever since Garoppolo went down — and in one of the toughest matchups in the NFL for tight ends, I’ll leave Kittle alone on Main Builds, viewing him as a “bet on workload and talent” play in tourneys. His ceiling remains intact, but his chances of seeing that ceiling are lower.

In the 49ers’ backfield, I don’t love the locked-in low volume on Breida (his ceiling this year has been 20 touches, and 16 to 17 is a safe expectation going in), but I do like the matchup quite a bit. His likeliest range is “doesn’t kill you if he fails to score,” to “provides really strong point-per-dollar production if he pushes one or two into the end zone.”

I won’t have much interest in the Seahawks in a game that projects to be run-heavy, with the work in this backfield being split three ways and with the backfield leader seeing almost zero involvement in the pass game. If going to this side of the ball, my likeliest bet would be on one of the three wide receivers in tourneys, as Russ has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all but one game this season (18 quarterbacks have more red zone pass attempts than Russ, but only three have more red zone touchdowns), and it won’t be surprising if one of these guys proves to be underpriced this week.

CHARGERS // STEELERS OVERVIEW

It’s that time of year, when the Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football games take away some of the more attractive games on the Main Slate — though with no bye weeks and 13 games taking place earlier in the day, this doesn’t impact DFS too heavily, and instead it gives Showdown players an opportunity to target a game with plenty of back-and-forth potential in a matchup between a first-place, 7-3-1 Steelers team and a second-place, 8-3 Chargers squad. It seems inevitable at this point that both teams will be in the playoffs (each team is very clearly among the top eight squads in the league, so it would certainly be a shame if one of these two misses), but this game will provide a valuable measuring stick for each side, and it will be an important game for positioning down the stretch.

Both of these teams are above-average at controlling the clock, and with the Chargers ranked sixth in time of possession, 23rd in pass play rate, and 32nd in pace of play, they are able to shorten games to a remarkable degree. In spite of ranking sixth in time of possession, this team ranks 29th in plays per game. They also allow the seventh fewest opponent plays per game.

Each team is solid on defense, with the Chargers allowing the fifth fewest points per game and the Steelers allowing the 11th fewest points per game. The Chargers get there by limiting opponent plays and playing stellar red zone defense (third lowest red zone touchdown rate allowed). The Steelers get there with an attacking defense that ranks first in the NFL in sacks and ninth in drive success rate allowed. With great offensive pieces on both sides of this game, we’ll have an entertaining strength-on-strength matchup.

As is always the case when two evenly-matched teams are playing one another, the home team is favored in this spot, with the Steelers installed as early-week 3.5 point favorites in a game with a healthy Over/Under of 51.5.

CHARGERS PASS OFFENSE

The Steelers have been tough on quarterbacks this year — topping the NFL in sacks while taking away the short areas of the field. This has led to Pittsburgh shaving almost 4% off the league-average catch rate. The Steelers also rank first in the NFL in limiting YAC, knocking over 20% off the league-average YAC/R rate.

The Chargers, of course, are one of the least pass-heavy offenses in the NFL, with the eighth fewest pass attempts in the league this season. Philip Rivers has, incredibly, topped 29 pass attempts only once in his last seven games. The potential back-and-forth nature of this game could lead to the Chargers opening things up a bit more than normal as this game moves along, but the safest way to enter this game is expecting Rivers to max out at 30 to 33 pass attempts, with anything above that range a bonus. Benefitting the pass catchers on the Chargers is the fact that Rivers is averaging an elite 9.1 yards per pass attempt — the third highest mark in the NFL. This positive is offset somewhat by the matchup. The best yardage total by a wide receiver against the Steelers since Week 4 was 86 yards for Emmanuel Sanders last week, followed by 82 yards for A.J. Green, 73 yards for Mohamed Sanu, 62 yards for Julio Jones, and 62 yards for Tyler Boyd. No other wide receiver against the Steelers has cracked even 60 yards since September.

The best bet on the Chargers for production, as always, is Keenan Allen, who has recent target counts of 10 // 9 // 12 // 7, with yardage totals in this stretch of 124 // 57 // 89 // 72. Allen typically sees only one downfield look per game, which will make it difficult for him to pop for a big yardage game against a team that tackles so well after the catch, making him a “bet on floor and hope for upside” option. With Gordon out, the Chargers could lean on Allen a bit more — especially in the red zone.

With Tyrell Williams playing only nine snaps last week, Mike Williams popped off for a 4-25-2 line on four targets. It should be noted that Mike has seen exactly three or four targets in six of his last seven games, so his production can hardly be considered predictable. He’s a low floor play with plenty of price-considered upside. If Tyrell is healthier this week, the same can be said for him, as he should step into four to six targets, with a couple of these looks coming downfield. If Tyrell is limited again this week, Travis Benjamin should see another two to four targets.

CHARGERS RUN OFFENSE

As explored a few times over the last few weeks: the Steelers are just a bit better than average against the run, with running back fantasy production on the year simply depressed because opponents are typically forced to go pass-heavy in this matchup, which has led to the Steelers facing the 10th fewest rush attempts in the league. Oftentimes, the pass-heavy nature of opponents against the Steelers is less because they are chasing points and more because they know they will have to score points in this spot; but with these teams evenly matched, and with Anthony Lynn sticking to the run as consistently as any coach in the league, the likeliest scenario is that the Chargers remain run-heavy. This will open opportunity for Austin Ekeler to touch the ball over 20 times, while working with an offensive line that ranks fifth in adjusted line yards. This is one of the most creative run schemes in the NFL, and the drop-off from Melvin Gordon to Ekeler this week is unlikely to be a huge one. Gordon is a slightly more patient runner, which leaves him with less boom/bust to his game, but Ekeler is capable of excelling in his own right. Ekeler should be in line for at least five targets in this game as well, increasing his opportunities to be a difference-making play.

STEELERS PASS OFFENSE

Last week, I kept coming across JuJu Smith-Schuster when building around the higher end of the price range and thinking, “JuJu could have a big week.” As noted throughout last week, I had heavy interest in Ben Roethlisberger in tourneys — but because of JuJu’s heavy snap rate in the slot and his matchup in the slot vs Chris Harris Jr., I never seriously considered pulling him onto my Main Builds. This was a bit of an oversight, as we have been noting in this space since Week 3 or 4 that first year offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner is doing a great job this year adjusting the route trees and responsibilities of JuJu and Antonio Brown to best capitalize on what the opponent gives them (I believe the quote in the NFL Edge that first week talking about this went something like, ‘I wouldn’t worry too much about usage and matchup, as Fichtner is working right now to figure out a way to get these guys open’). In a display of great coaching: the Steelers proceeded to give JuJu 47 snaps on the perimeter (his most on the season, by far) and only 19 snaps in the slot (his fewest on the season). JuJu caught two passes for nine yards in Harris’ coverage on the inside, while smoking Bradley Roby on the perimeter for a 7-144-1 line. And so, as a precursor to any writeup of the Steelers’ passing attack: This team is dead set on getting the ball into the hands of AB and JuJu — with each of these guys ranking top nine in the NFL in targets per game, and with them combining for 49.2% of the Steelers’ total targets on the year. And each week, this team hunts for ways to put these two in the best position to succeed.

As for the matchup: only two teams are forcing a lower average depth of target than the Chargers this season, and only four teams are allowing a lower catch rate — a lethal combination that has this team ranked ninth in fewest yards allowed per pass attempt. The one major weakness of the Chargers’ secondary comes in yards after the catch, where they are allowing an 8.4% increase on the league average YAC/R rate. (Both JuJu and AB have above-average marks this year with the ball in their hands.)

As noted last week, JuJu has been more efficient on his looks this year, hauling in 70% of the passes that have flowed in his direction, while Ben and AB have had an uncharacteristically difficult time connecting — with a 58.2% completion percentage on passes thrown to the Steelers’ longtime alpha. This has led to JuJu topping AB in catches (77 to 71) and yards (1055 to 874), with six games this year of 100+ yards compared to only three for AB. The big edge for Brown has come in the touchdown department, where he has 11 scores on the year to JuJu’s four. As such, it is worth noting that it is actually JuJu who leads the NFL in red zone targets, with 23. AB has 16 such looks, and has scored a primed-for-regression eight of his 11 touchdowns from outside the red zone. Neither guy has a good matchup, but both will be fed targets and opportunities for upside, with Fichtner finding ways to scheme them open. JuJu profiles as the better option right now, but it’s close between the two.

Behind these guys, James Washington has yet to top two receptions or 25 yards in a game, while Ryan Switzer has functioned as a rarely-used checkdown option — with seven receptions in Week 4 and six receptions last week, but with no other games north of three catches or 32 yards.

The best bet behind AB and JuJu is the tight end position, where Vance McDonald (recent target counts of 6 // 4 // 6 // 5) and Jesse James (recent target counts of 3 // 1 // 0 // 4) continue to mix and match production. The Chargers have been solid this year against tight ends, but McDonald’s YAC ability and James’ size mismatch gives each guy opportunities to post production in any spot. They are upside plays on the Showdown, with McDonald the likelier bet to hit.

STEELERS RUN OFFENSE

The Chargers’ run defense has been completely nondescript this year, ranking middle of the pack in yards allowed per carry while holding enemy backs to a non-attackable, but non-elite six rushing touchdowns. With this team defending wide receivers well, they have allowed the third most receiving yards in the NFL to running backs, backed up by the sixth most receptions allowed.

This is a “good, not great” spot for James Conner, who has been impacted more by game flow this year than by matchup, with the Steelers perfectly happy to lean pass-heavy when A) they fall behind, when B) they are facing a tough defense, or when C) they are in a game in which they will need to put up points. Even taking away the game against the Panthers in which Conner left early with a concussion, he has 15 or fewer carries in half his games on the season, with a scary three games already of single-digit carries. In theory, Conner’s occasional dip in run game work is offset by his role in the pass game, but he has finished with four to seven targets in eight of his 10 start-to-finish games, which is not quite enough to justify his price tag when his carries drop. Outside of a game against a Baltimore defense that erases wide receivers, Conner’s best games this year have come against poor run defenses — primarily in games the Steelers have controlled throughout. With a likely floor of 15 carries and six to seven targets, his upside is big in this spot — but this is unlikely to be a spiked-carry game for Conner, leaving his floor a slim concern at his price.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

On the Chargers’ side of the Showdown, Ekeler deserves to be one of the most popular plays, as he should have no trouble clearing 20 touches in this spot, and he is underpriced for his role in this offense. Keenan Allen will almost certainly produce a solid game — and while his chances of posting a big game are slim, he certainly has the ability to get there. Rivers is less exciting than Ben, but he has been one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league this year, and I wouldn’t bet against him. Mike and Tyrell Williams are low-floor, solid-upside plays.

The matchup is not great for the Steelers’ passing attack, but this is the kind of game in which this team may once again put the ball in the hands of their big quarterback — allowing him to take over. On the Showdown, none of Ben, JuJu, or AB are locks for production in a difficult draw, but all three carry big upside — keeping them very much in play. Behind these guys, Vance is the most attractive remaining pass catcher as he can rip off a 30+ yard play with the ball in his hands.

The Steelers wrap up with Conner, who carries a solid raw floor and a big ceiling — though his price-considered floor is a slim concern in a game in which the Steelers may lean on Ben for the win. Conner obviously stands out as one of the better plays on the Showdown, but he does not come without a small amount of risk.

REDSKINS // EAGLES OVERVIEW

From a DFS perspective, Monday night brings us a less exciting game than we have on Sunday night — but from a real-life perspective, this game is just as important, with a 5-6 Eagles team and a 6-5 Redskins team squaring off in the wide-open NFC East. With the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles finally rounding into form and the “find a way to win” Redskins carrying back-to-back losses into this road game and now playing with Colt McCoy under center, it feels like the home team has the big edge — though we should keep in mind the fact that most Redskins games have felt this way in 2018, and this team has still found ways to hang tough most weeks. Ultimately, this shapes up as a close, hard-fought game…though if one team pulls away, it is far likelier to be the Eagles.

Neither team has been dominant on offense or defense this year. Both offenses rank middle of the pack in yards per carry, and the Eagles are averaging a disappointing 253 passing yards per game while the Redskins sit all the way down at 214 passing yards per game on a paltry 6.6 yards per pass attempt. While Washington has allowed the seventh fewest points per game on the strength of the seventh ranked red zone touchdown defense, they rank 18th in yards allowed per game. The Eagles are also strong in the red zone (fourth lowest opponent red zone touchdown rate), but they rank 24th in yards allowed and 14th in points. Continuing the overall trend of mediocrity for these teams: each ranks middle of the pack in drive success rate on offense. With each team carrying an exploitable pass defense, Philly and Washington both rank top six in highest opponent pass play rate.

Vegas has given this game an Over/Under of 44.0, with the Eagles installed as early 6.5 point favorites. It won’t be surprising if this game plays somewhat close, but the Eagles are better equipped to separate down the stretch, and they will be the more exciting offense to target in this spot.

REDSKINS PASS OFFENSE

In spite of all the talent issues on the Eagles’ back end, they still have Malcolm Jenkins running the defense on the field, and they still have a creative defensive coordinator in Jim Schwartz. This team impressively ranks middle of the pack in yards allowed per pass attempt, and they have allowed only three more passing touchdowns this year than league-leader Minnesota. This team’s band-aid corners received bottom-rung marks from PFF last week, but they still managed to slow down Odell Beckham and Sterling Shepard, creating below-average expectations for a Redskins passing attack that ranks 29th in yards per pass attempts, 25th in passing yards per game, and 26th in passing touchdowns — and that now has Colt McCoy under center.

In McCoy’s first start last week, he did manage to pile up 24 completions and 268 yards while chasing points against a Dallas secondary that has similar strengths and weaknesses to the Eagles (with a lot more talent). If Philly can take a lead at home, another 230 to 270 passing yards would not be out of reach.

Targets in McCoy’s first start went:

:: Josh Doctson — 10
:: Trey Quinn — 6
:: Maurice Harris — 5
:: Jordan Reed — 8
:: Vernon Davis — 4

McCoy’s willingness to make mistakes allowed him to push the ball outside the numbers to Doctson far more frequently than what Alex Smith was doing. Truthfully, this team would prefer a conservative, win-with-run-and-defense approach, but if Philly takes a lead in this must-win game for both sides, this team will have no choice but to let McCoy attack more aggressively when he chooses to — which could once again lead to elevated targets for Doctson, who had not seen more than seven targets in any game with Smith and had not cracked 50 yards until going for 66 yards with McCoy.

Quinn is the most exciting player at wide receiver as Washington’s future Cooper Kupp. His role could be scaled back if Jamison Crowder returns this week, but if Crowder misses one more game, Quinn will soak up a few targets underneath with one or two downfield looks. If Crowder plays, this slot role is a guessing game. We may see Quinn kick to the outside, with Harris moving to the sidelines. With Reed and Doctson getting involved with McCoy and Quinn/Crowder in the mix, Harris is the least exciting play of the bunch and is simply a low-floor tourney dart on the Showdown.

Entering Week 11, Reed had cracked 51 yards only two times, and he had not topped 65 yards all year. He proceeded to go 7-71-1 and 6-75-0 across the last two weeks, with McCoy targeting him on the intermediate routes that Smith had been avoiding. This is an exciting development for the rest of the season. Selfishly — as a non-Showdown player — I’m hoping Reed disappoints and loses ownership steam heading into his next Main Slate game, but I’m expecting another six to eight targets for Reed (with room for more), with these targets carrying more upside than they were carrying before.

Vernon Davis mixed in for 26 of 63 snaps, in line with his typical deployment. He’s boom/bust, with the big per-play upside he has shown in four separate games already this year, but with limited usage and a floor of zero.

REDSKINS RUN OFFENSE

The Eagles’ run defense has continued to show cracks lately, now allowing the sixth most yards per carry in the NFL in spite of facing the second fewest rush attempts in the league, as teams continue to shy away from this front seven. The Redskins rank only 13th in rush play rate, but they have shown a strong desire to win on the ground when games stay close, opening opportunity for Adrian Peterson to see more action than most backs have seen in this spot. Peterson has tailed off after his hot start with recent yardage totals of 17 // 68 // 51 // 35, on only 3.05 yards per carry. The likeliest scenario calls for Peterson to see around 20 carries if the Redskins can keep this game close. With only 16 receptions all season, he’ll need a jolt in efficiency or a visit to the end zone to be worth a roster spot on the Showdown.

Hopefully joining Peterson in the backfield this week will be Chris Thompson, who has been practicing this week in preparation for a Week 13 return. Thompson is no lock for more than a limited role, though the Redskins could stretch him in this spot if he looks good, as they need this win in order to remain in control of the division.

EAGLES PASS OFFENSE

Washington has done a good job this year forcing short passes — shaving 10% off the league-average aDOT — but they have otherwise been unspectacular against the pass, allowing a slightly above-average catch rate and allowing the third highest YAC/R rate in the NFL. Add it all up, and Washington ranks 23rd in yards allowed per pass attempt.

Since Golden Tate joined the Eagles, target counts on this team have looked like this:

:: Zach Ertz — 16 // 3 // 8
:: Golden Tate — 4 // 8 // 8
:: Alshon Jeffery — 8 // 5 // 3
:: Nelson Agholor — 7 // 2 // 1

It stands out that Tate has played only 75 out of 116 snaps the last two weeks (64.7%), and has still seen target counts of eight and eight, with the Eagles doing what they can to get him involved. Last week, four of Tate’s eight targets came 10 or more yards downfield — including a deep crosser of 25+ yards on which Wentz and Tate failed to connect. Another five of Tate’s targets came 10+ yards downfield in Week 11, including a shot of almost 50 yards. The production has not yet been there, but Tate is seeing upside looks.

Agholor is out-snapping Tate, but he is not being schemed targets and is nothing more than a dart throw.

Alshon has, bizarrely, been used exclusively on underneath routes the last three weeks, making it difficult for him to pop for the sort of upside we are typically looking for from him. Barring a change in usage this week, he’ll be touchdown dependent.

The heaviest usage, of course, belongs to Ertz, who will match up with a Washington defense that has been above-average against tight ends, but not to any extent that should concern us for the highest-usage tight end in the NFL. With only two games all season of fewer than eight targets, Ertz shapes up as one of the safest, highest-upside plays on the slate.

EAGLES RUN OFFENSE

Washington has been middle of the pack against the run this year — ranking 13th in yards allowed per carry and facing the sixth lowest opponent rush play rate, but ranking 30th in adjusted line yards and getting handled without many issues when teams do choose to open things up on the ground against them. The Eagles rank top 10 in pass play rate, and Josh Adams’ 22 carry, 84-yard game marked a season high for this team in both carries and rushing yards — forcing us to keep our expectations at least somewhat in check, especially after running backs coach Duce Staley referred to this unit as a committee this week. It seems unlikely that Adams suddenly disappears behind an ineffective Wendell Smallwood or Corey Clement, but it won’t be surprising if he trickles back to the 14 to 16 carry range in which “lead backs” in this offense have typically settled. Somewhat discouragingly, Adams saw only one target last week. Darren Sproles is also set to finally return, and he could soak up a bit of the pass game work. Adams is best viewed as a 14 to 16 carry back with a limited pass game role in an above-average matchup, with anything over those numbers considered bonus material. Behind Adams, it will be an unpredictable mess of Clement, Sproles, and possibly even a dash of Smallwood.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

The arrival of McCoy makes the Washington pass catchers more exciting from an “upside” perspective, even if the floor remains iffy in this offense. Targets are most secure on Reed and Doctson (with Reed the safer play, but with both guys carrying solid price-considered upside). If Crowder misses one more game, Quinn is a fun play for his acceptable floor and his quality upside, though a Crowder return would introduce question marks on both guys. Davis is a boom/bust play who could literally post zero points or could pop off for another big gain.

It’s not the prettiest Showdown, which could pull Peterson into relevance. He’s at risk of something like a 15 carry, 50 yard game with only one or two receptions for seven or eight yards chipped in; but he also has multi-touchdown potential and can still pop off for yardage, making him a boom/bust play on the Showdown. Behind him, Thompson would require some faith — but it’s not crazy to think he gets overused if Washington keeps this game close. Thompson adds an element to this unit that they have been sorely missing over the last couple months.

Carson Wentz should be able to post a strong game against a Washington pass defense that has been middling against quarterbacks this year, making him an obviously solid option on the Showdown, while Ertz and Tate shape up as the strongest bets for production through the air. Tate, in particular, stands out as a guy whose results have not yet matched up with his usage, giving him an opportunity to outproduce his price tag. Behind these guys, Alshon is in play on the Showdown as a bet-on-touchdown play. Agholor is a “hope he runs into a broken play” option.

One the Main Slate (or a different Showdown), the Eagles’ backfield would be difficult to get behind, but Adams is in play on this slate a yardage-and-touchdown back, with plenty of explosiveness with the ball in his hands, but with the thin floor that comes with non-elite usage and a slim pass game role. Behind Adams, I would have a difficult time touching anything, but Clement or even Sproles has an outside shot at posting a touchdown or a long play this week.