PANTHERS // STEELERS OVERVIEW

Week 10 provides us with the rare “appealing Thursday Night Football game,” with the 6-2 Panthers traveling to take on the 5-2-1 Steelers. These teams have combined for 10 consecutive wins (four straight for Pittsburgh; six straight for Carolina), and while this game would set up even better if each team were given a full week to prepare, we won’t complain about the NFL giving us something that is actually worth watching on Thursday night.

The Steelers have gotten to this point with one of the better defenses in the league (ninth in yards allowed per carry, fifth in yards allowed per pass attempt, 12th in yards allowed per game) and one of the better offenses on the other side (fourth in yards per game, ninth in points per game), while ranking eighth in time of possession and second in red zone touchdown rate.

The Panthers have gotten to this point with a more average defense (16th in yards allowed per carry, 10th in yards allowed per pass attempt), but with their above-average ball control style, they have managed to rank 11th in yards allowed per game. Carolina’s offense ranks just a few spots behind Pittsburgh in red zone touchdown rate (fifth overall), but the big mismatch in this game will come when the Panthers’ defense tries to slow down the Steelers’ offense close to the goal line. While Pittsburgh ranks second in red zone touchdown rate on offense, the Panthers rank 31st on defense — better than only the Buccaneers. The Panthers have allowed six touchdowns to running backs (middle of the pack), seven touchdowns to wide receivers (seventh fewest in the NFL), and seven touchdowns to tight ends (worst in the NFL).

One thing to watch for in this spot: the Panthers run the ball at the seventh highest rate in the NFL, which shortens their games — leading to Carolina ranking only 22nd in plays per game, while allowing the 10th fewest opponent plays per game. Pittsburgh is tough to run on, but they are also tough to pass on, so expect Carolina to stick to this approach as long as this game stays close — which tilts us toward “upside plays” over “volume plays” in roster decisions.

PANTHERS PASS OFFENSE

Speaking of “volume” and “upside” — Cam Newton has four games already this year of fewer than 30 pass attempts, but he also has three games this year of 39+ pass attempts. Competitive games have led to spikes in passing workload for Cam, as the Panthers seem content to keep the ball in his hands more often when games stay close. In those three games in which Cam threw 39+ times, Christian McCaffrey carried the ball eight times, eight times, and seven times. Outside of his game against Atlanta (15 targets), CMC’s targets did not spike when his rushing volume went down — with six and eight targets in those other two games games, right in line with what he has seen in all his other games this year. The Panthers should enter this game with a game plan to lean on the run as much as normal, but we should recognize that Norv Turner and Cam have shown a tendency to move away from the run in back-and-forth games — which would lower McCaffrey’s floor if that trend continues. Encouragingly (and ironically, given that we highlighted this stat just last week), CMC saw one target inside the 10 last week and three carries inside the five…after seeing only one such target and one such carry all season heading into that game.

Cam’s target distribution over the last two weeks (sans Torrey Smith) has looked like this (Week 9 snap count in parentheses) ::

:: Devin Funchess — 3 // 5 || (45)
:: Greg Olsen — 4 // 6 || (60)
:: Christian McCaffrey — 6 // 6 || (61)
:: D.J. Moore — 6 // 2 || (53)
:: Curtis Samuel — 3 // 4 || (17)
:: Jarius Wright — 3 // 1 || (22)

In this spread-the-wealth offense, Devin Funchess (once) and Christian McCaffrey (once) are the only players who have seen double-digit targets in a game this year. On the Showdown slate, it’s safe to assume a slight bump in volume for Cam, which will spread a few extra looks across these names. Moore and Samuel can each be penciled in for one to two carries per game as well, as the Panthers use each guy on a lot of pre-snap motion that opens the door for jet sweeps and end arounds.

The Steelers have allowed the second fewest receptions in the league to running backs, but they have provided a slight matchup boost to wide receivers, and they have allowed the second most tight end receptions (the Panthers are the only team that has allowed more).

STEELERS PASS OFFENSE

The Steelers and Panthers each run a similar zone-and-pressure based defense that allows opponents to attack on aggressive, downfield-based routes, but that makes up for this by allowing a below-average catch rate and tackling well after the catch. The Steelers have allowed the second lowest YAC/R rate in the league. The Panthers have allowed the lowest.

The Steelers have gratifyingly produced the fifth highest pass play rate in the league this year, allowing Ben Roethlisberger to pile up the following pass attempt numbers :: 41 // 60 // 38 // 47 // 29 // 46 // 36 // 47. Primary pass catchers Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster have piled up 11.38 and 9.75 targets per game, respectively, with AB seeing eight or more looks in all but one game this year, and with JuJu seeing eight or more in all but two games. Brown has reestablished himself as the clearly superior play in this attack, with more games of double-digit targets (five, to four for JuJu), a higher percentage share of the team’s air yards (36.24%, to 26.17% for JuJu), a deeper aDOT (10.7 to 9.0), and more touchdowns (nine, to two) — but realize that JuJu is still heavily involved, seeing what would amount to a WR1 workload on most other teams. While AB is tied for the league lead in targets per game, JuJu ranks 11th; and while AB has all the touchdowns, JuJu leads the team in red zone targets and targets inside the 10. In fact, his 19 red zone targets rank second in the NFL.

It is likely that one of the tight ends on the Steelers will take advantage of this plus draw (no team has allowed more catches or touchdowns to tight ends than the Panthers, and only two teams have allowed more yards). Vance McDonald out-snapped Jesse James in Week 9, but roles were reversed in Week 8, as the Steelers continue to deploy these two in a game plan specific manner. For what it’s worth, Vance’s quickness should play much better against this Carolina defense, with the Bucs providing a solid blueprint last week with O.J. Howard of how to attack this unit with an athletic tight end. Vance has recent target counts of 2 // 8 // 3 // 6. James has topped three targets in only one of his last six games.

If digging deep on the Showdown slate, the Steelers reinstalled James Washington as their number three receiver last week, giving him 69 out of 80 snaps and showing him a season-high-tying five targets. Washington was a healthy scratch in Week 8 and has yet to top 25 receiving yards in a game.

STEELERS RUN OFFENSE

Another week without Le’Veon Bell, which leaves James Conner locked into lead duties. Because of Conner’s three-week dip early in the season, people seem to not quite have registered the fact that Conner has been the best fantasy back in the NFL (better even than Todd Gurley) across his other five games. In two of those lower-production games, the Steelers fell into a deep hole early, and in the other they were playing the stout Ravens’ D (a defense that Conner pasted last week to the tune of another top-tier box score). Barring an outlier scenario, Conner should be considered the most workload-secure player on the slate, with a fine draw against a Panthers team that is middling against the run and awful in the red zone. Conner has recent touch counts of 25 // 23 // 29 // 31, and Gurley is the only player in the NFL with more carries inside the five.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

If playing the full-weekend slate, there are actually some pieces to like in this game — and this will especially be a fun game for the Showdown.

Cam and Ben are both in play at quarterback, with Cam slightly preferred, given the multiple ways in which he can pick up points (and given his more locked-in red zone role), though it’s a close call between the two.

Conner jumps out (as always) as one of the top plays on the slate, while CMC carries a high floor with his guaranteed touches — but the matchup and his uncertain red zone role make him more “solid” than “elite.”

On the full-weekend slate, I would have strong interest in Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster, with Greg Olsen and Vance McDonald as solid upside options behind them. A.B. is my favorite of the bunch, but JuJu would definitely make my early-week list if this game were on the main slate.

Volume projections are far lower on the Panthers’ side of this game, as Carolina throws less and spreads the ball around more; but if digging deeper in the Showdown, I would prefer Moore over Funchess (more snaps last week; more upside with the ball in his hands), while the latter will provide solid value if he scores a touchdown. Samuel and Washington are dart throws. Wright has almost no role outside of third downs.

CARDINALS // CHIEFS OVERVIEW

This is a matchup of two teams moving in opposite directions, with the no-hope Cardinals sitting at 2-6, and with the Chiefs topping the AFC West at 8-1. This week I watched film of the Falcons immediately after watching film of the Chiefs, and it looked like the Falcons (5th in the NFL in yards per game; 8th in points per game) were moving in slow-motion compared to what I had just been watching. This Chiefs team develops plays so quickly, and Patrick Mahomes gets the ball into tight windows with so much zip, it is absolutely incredible. I was surprised this week to discover that only the Jaguars, Ravens, Browns, and Colts have more dropped passes as a team than the Chiefs have…and then I realized this isn’t so surprising at all. Mahomes gets the ball in so quickly, it’s almost impossible for there to not be a few drops along the way. This team ranks third in the NFL in yards per game, first in points per game, second in drive success rate, second in points per drive, and second in yards per drive.

The Cardinals, on the (far) other hand, rank 32nd in yards per game and 31st in points per game. The Bills are the only team that ranks worse than Arizona in drive success rate. Watching the Cardinals on film is like watching a team stuck in mud. In Week 8, new offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich tried to jumpstart this offense with a creative and consistent screen game, but until the game-winning 4th quarter drive against the poor 49ers’ pass defense, this was all the Cardinals were really able to get going, as Rosen consistently crumbled in the face of pressure and regularly failed to fit passes into tight windows. It is probably worth mentioning that most of Rosen’s success against the 49ers in Week 8 (outside of screen passes) came when San Francisco was in zone coverage. Kansas City runs one of the man-heaviest coverage schemes in the league.

With all of this, it is unsurprising that the Chiefs have been awarded a Vegas-implied total double their opponent’s, with an early line of Chiefs -16.5, and with Vegas-implied totals of Cardinals :: 16.5 // Chiefs :: 33.0.

CARDINALS OFFENSE

When people see “Chiefs’ defense,” their eyes tend to light up, as the widespread narrative is how awful the Chiefs’ defense is. And when you break things down by yards allowed per pass attempt (KC ranks 31st) or by passing yards allowed per game (KC ranks 30th), it seems clear that this is a team to attack with pass catchers. Because of the way the Chiefs’ aggressive man coverage forces offenses to spread the ball around, however, the Chiefs have somewhat surprisingly allowed only three wide receivers all year to top 78 receiving yards: Keenan Allen did it in Week 1 (8-108-1) on 11 targets; JuJu Smith-Schuster did it in Week 2 (13-121-1) on 19 targets; and A.J. Green did it in Week 7 (7-117-0) on 14 targets. Christian Kirk has yet to top eight targets on the year, and he has maxed out at 85 yards. Larry Fitzgerald has topped eight targets only twice, and he has topped 76 yards only once. With Arizona ranking dead last in the NFL in time of possession and dead last in plays per game, a bet on players from this side of the ball is a bet on Josh Rosen playing well in one of the toughest road environments in football, against a defense that ranks fourth in the NFL in sacks and plays an aggressive man coverage scheme. If you want to make that bet, realize that Chad Williams has yet to top 34 yards this season, and has caught only 11 of 31 targets in his direction, while Ricky Seals-Jones has recent target counts of 3 // 4 // 5 // 6 // 4 // 4, and has hauled in only 50% of the targets that have come his way. To put that another way: Kirk and Fitz are the only guys who are worthy of consideration outside making pure Hail Mary plays.

The Cardinals disappointingly failed to stretch the field on their run plays in Week 8, which left David Johnson running into the backs of his linemen all day, to the tune of 16 carries for 59 yards. DJ saw four targets, which was right in line with what he was seeing under Mike McCoy — and while one of these came on a wide receiver screen and a couple others came on plays designed to get him into the open field, he will need more than four or five targets to justify his price tag on DraftKings (13.6% of the cap) and FantasyDraft (12.7% of the cap). He’s cheaper on FanDuel (11.5%), but the low touchdown upside in this offense makes him less valuable there. Ultimately, a bet on DJ at his price is a bet on him getting more involved through the air. If you want to make that bet, you can lean on the fact that Duke Johnson and the Browns provided a blueprint for the Cardinals of how to use DJ this week, in the likely event that the Cardinals fall behind. It wouldn’t be crazy to bet that DJ does, in fact, see seven to nine targets (the bye week certainly will have given the Cardinals some time to incorporate more elements in DJ’s favor) — but this would obviously be a guesswork-driven play.

CHIEFS PASS OFFENSE

The starting point on the Chiefs’ offense should be acknowledgement of the fact that matchup has legitimately not mattered for Patrick Mahomes this year, as he has topped 300 yards in eight consecutive games now and has recent touchdown totals through the air of 4 // 4 // 4 // 3. He has only two games all year under three touchdowns passes (zero at home against Jacksonville; one on the road at Denver), and in each of those games he added a touchdown on the ground. The Jacksonville game was the only one all year in which he did not post an elite score, and that game still produced a perfectly acceptable score.

With that cleared out of the way: this is a below-average quarterback matchup, for a couple of reasons. Firstly, the Cardinals force the lowest average depth of target in the league. Along with this, they allow an average catch rate and are below-average at preventing YAC, leading to a middling yards allowed per pass attempt of 7.5 (17th in the NFL). But secondly (and more importantly): the Cardinals are bad on offense, and they are bad against the run. This has led to teams regularly taking a lead and deciding, “Hey, instead of facing this stout pass rush and throwing short passes all day, why don’t we just run the ball?” Only six teams have faced fewer pass attempts than the Cardinals, and only one team is allowing fewer fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. On the other hand: no team has faced more running back rush attempts than the Cardinals (an incredible 29.5 per game), and while the Cardinals have allowed the fewest QB passing touchdowns in the league (eight, through eight games), they rank behind only the Browns, Bucs, and Chiefs for most touchdowns allowed to the running back position.

From a “likeliest scenario” standpoint, we should note that Kareem Hunt ranks third in the NFL in carries inside the 10-yard-line (behind only Gurley and Kamara), and he ranks second in the NFL in carries inside the five (behind only Gurley). Hunt also has the same number of red zone receiving touchdowns (three) as Gurley, and his 13 touchdowns on the year are not far off the blistering pace Gurley is setting with 16 touchdowns through nine games. Hunt has reached 20 carries only once this year, and he has two games in his last five with only a single catch — but he also has three games in his last five with five receptions, and he is steadily seeing 16 to 18 carries. On a per-carry basis, the Cardinals have been more “below average” (4.48 YPC allowed to running backs) than “awful,” so it would be preferable for volume to pile up for Hunt (which is unlikely to happen, as Andy Reid will be happy to spell Hunt with Spencer Ware if the running back workload begins to climb for this team), but he still has a solid shot at a multi-score game, and he’ll be involved early and often.

Recent target counts among the Chiefs’ three primary pass catchers look like this:

:: Travis Kelce — 9 // 5 // 10 // 9
:: Tyreek Hill — 12 // 10 // 4 // 5
:: Sammy Watkins — 4 // 7 // 9 // 5

Kelce has fallen shy of eight targets only twice all year, and he has fallen shy of 78 receiving yards only twice. The Cardinals have been solid against tight ends, but this is Mahomes and the Chiefs at home; there is no reason to expect anything but Kelce’s typical range of production.

As always: Hill has scary low floor for his price (six games already this year of 70 or fewer receiving yards, and four games of four or fewer catches — with five games this year in which he has scored zero touchdowns), but he also carries slate-winning ceiling (two games of seven catches, 140+ yards, and multiple touchdowns). Hill’s biggest games came in back-and-forth affairs against high-powered offenses (the Chargers in Week 1; the Patriots in Week 6), but the Cardinals have gotten beat deep for big plays by Emmanuel Sanders and Brandin Cooks, and there is nothing in the matchup that says this is a spot in which Hill can’t hit.

Watkins will primarily occupy the short crossing routes that are best suited to beating this defense for consistent catches and YAC-driven gains — a lower-upside role without a broken play or a touchdown, but one that should lead to nice floor if there are enough pass attempts on the Chiefs for a volume-driven play like Watkins to matter. In a vacuum, Watkins is simply a “floor” play in this spot; but as we have seen a few times already from this offense: this group is explosive enough that a talented “floor” play can produce a big stat line.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I don’t expect to have any pieces of the Cardinals’ passing attack (Kirk // Fitz // RSJ), as this offense is just not good enough for me to want to bet on garbage time points in one of the toughest road environments in football. With that said: I see these guys as guesswork-driven upside plays, and I don’t hate the idea of chasing if you want to go there. I’ll be hoping to find higher-certainty plays myself, but that’s a “style of play” thing that may differ from the risk you feel comfortable taking on.

On the other hand, I could see myself taking some shots on David Johnson, with a “Main Team” shot even in the conversation. At this point, it almost seems like we are betting on name more than game with DJ, but there is a case to be made that the bye week and the matchup will provide an opportunity for this man to finally get involved with the seven to nine targets he should be seeing. If he gets that type of work, he could really come alive; and even with as bad as this offense has been, DJ’s floor has been solid (only two games below 13.9 DK points; only two games below 12.0 FanDuel points) — creating a scenario in which he won’t kill your team if the workload remains what it has been, and he’ll have a chance to carry you deep into the leaderboards if the usage through the air spikes. The matchup is certainly appealing.

On the Chiefs’ side, Mahomes is in the tourney discussion for me, as always — though the volume concerns in this matchup will likely take him out of Main Team consideration for me, especially at his elevated price. Like Todd Gurley last week: Mahomes’ chances of failing are slim, but his chances of hitting a week-winning score are lower than normal.

I’ll have interest in Hunt, Kelce, and Watkins on Main Builds, with interest in Hill in large-field tourneys. If pricing were lower on all these guys, they would be lock-button — but given how tremendous this offense has been throughout the year, all of these guys are priced accordingly, and this makes them “part of the conversation” early in my research of this slate, rather than making them truly jump off the page.

BILLS // JETS OVERVIEW

The “Battle for the Bottom of the AFC East” will take place without much national viewership or DFS attention, as the 2-7 Bills and the 3-6 Jets have been awarded a laughably low early-week Over/Under of 37.0. Incredibly, there is room for this total to drop a bit further given how inept each team is on offense and how solid the Bills are on defense. If the Bills’ quarterbacks can keep from turning the ball over (a major “if,” of course), this could turn into an absolute snooze-fest. No team has scored fewer points per game than the Bills (10.7), and only the Cardinals have piled up fewer yards per game. On the other side of the ball, the Bills’ defense has allowed the third fewest yards per game — with their middling “points allowed” total the byproduct of so many turnovers from their offense providing short fields for opponents.

Each team prefers to lean toward the run, with below-average pass play rates in spite of playing most of their games from behind. Each offense ranks bottom three in drive success rate, and Buffalo ranks 23rd in red zone touchdown rate while the Jets rank 32nd.

BILLS PASS OFFENSE

The Bills’ passing attack is averaging a league-low 5.5 yards per pass attempt, with a league-low 151 passing yards per game. Through nine games, the Bills have only 161 completed passes (17.89 per game). “Best yardage games” from this offense look like this:

:: Kelvin Benjamin — 4-71-0 (no other games above 45 yards)
:: Zay Jones — 2-63-0 (only one other game north of 38 yards)
:: Andre Holmes — 2-45-0 (no other games above 29 yards)

Incredibly, Terrelle Pryor finished second among wide receivers in snaps in Week 9 (behind only Zay), after getting signed off the street. He turned five targets into two catches for 17 yards.

The Jets have been slightly above-average against the pass this year, allowing a below-average catch rate and a below-average aDOT. They rank 22nd in adjusted sack rate, but with aggressive-minded Todd Bowles at the helm, this team ranks seventh in the league in takeaways. The Bills rank 29th in adjusted sack rate on offense, and they have given the ball away more times than any other team in the league. There will be a slightly higher likelihood of high-value turnovers if Nathan Peterman somehow ends up under center again this week, though it appears likely that Josh Allen will miss another week and Derek Anderson will get cleared from his concussion in time to play. Anderson is only a slightly better option than Peterman, while Allen is the only quarterback who will have any significant hope of moving this offense.

BILLS RUN OFFENSE

Regardless of who is under center, expect the Bills to lean run-heavy in what should be one of the rare games in which they are able to keep things close (or possibly even play with a lead).

The Jets have allowed a middling 4.03 yards per carry to running backs, while also ranking middle of the pack in receptions and receiving yards allowed to the position. Consider this a neutral draw for LeSean McCoy, though realize that he had only 14 touches last week to 10 for Chris Ivory — while playing only 37 of 91 snaps (ceding 30 snaps to Ivory and 24 to Marcus Murphy). Ivory dislocated his shoulder and may miss time — but as long as he is healthy, this should be viewed as a 65/35 backfield split on early downs (with the fat side of that split belonging to McCoy), with Murphy soaking up most third down work. Encouragingly, McCoy does have five or more targets in all but three games this year — though this entire committee has incredibly seen only three carries all season inside the five-yard-line.

JETS OFFENSE

The obvious starting point for this writeup is to note that Sam Darnold has yet to crack even 20.0 fantasy points in a game this season, and the Bills have allowed the third fewest fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. Buffalo ranks third in the league in yards allowed per pass attempt, and only the pass defenses of the Ravens and the supposedly-crumbling Jaguars have allowed fewer yards per game. The Jets’ offensive line has held up this year (12th in adjusted sack rate), but their offense has been generous to opponents with the ball — with the third most giveaways in the NFL. Expect each team to turn the ball over a few times in this game, and for points to pile up from short fields rather than from sustained drives. This brings up a point we emphasize from time to time: fantasy scoring comes from more than just “touchdowns.” Yards and volume (targets, carries, etc.) are valuable as well, making this a thin game all the way around.

NOTE: Darnold is now set to miss, and Josh McCown will take over under center. This is a slight upgrade to this offense across the board, but it still leaves the under-talented Jets against an elite pass defense. Nothing much changes in expectations for players in this “attack.”

If targeting short-field scoring on this offense, your best bet is to look to the running backs, as there are only four teams in the NFL (the Browns, Bucs, Cardinals, and Chiefs) who have allowed more touchdowns to the position. (On the other hand: only six teams have given up fewer wide receiver touchdowns than the Bills.) The Jets rank 23rd in yards per carry, but they rank seventh in the NFL in rush attempts, and 15.7% of completions from Sam Darnold have gone to backs as well. Last week, Isaiah Crowell played only 23 snaps while Elijah McGuire played 36. McGuire also ran 27 pass routes to only nine for Crow, giving him more overall upside. If considering this spot, it is worth noting that (as with the rest of the Buffalo defense), the issue for the Bills has been short fields, rather than sustained production; in spite of all the touchdowns to running backs, only five teams are allowing fewer yards per carry than the Bills.

Quincy Enunwa returned last week to play 34 snaps on the perimeter and only 14 snaps in the slot, with Jermaine Kearse locking down the interior routes. It’s difficult to say whether the Bills will see Enunwa or Robby Anderson as the shadow-worthy piece for Tre’Davious White (or if they will simply let White play his side and take on whichever guy happens to line up across from him). Either way, this is a difficult draw for the perimeter options against a defense allowing the eighth fewest yards in the NFL, on the strength of the fourth-shallowest opponent aDOT and the fifth lowest opponent YAC/R rate in the league.

The best way to pick up yards through the air against the Bills is with interior routes. Kearse has seen a healthy 21 targets across the last three weeks…leading to six total catches for 50 scoreless yards.

Chris Herndon, Eric Tomlinson, and Jordan Leggett continue to rotate at tight end. Herndon did ascend to a 63.6% snap rate last week. He has recent target counts of 2 // 7 // 2 // 4. Buffalo has been above-average against the tight end, but they are not a shutdown force against the position.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I will continue avoiding the Bills’ offense (a profitable approach all season so far), though depending on how value shakes out on this slate, McCoy may need to be considered at a high-water mark of only 9.33% of the salary cap on FanDuel (9.0% on DK; 8.8% on FDraft). Value would have to be extremely thin before I would consider this on my Main Build, but if Ivory misses, McCoy will gain value, and it’s not impossible that he puts up a solid game in this spot.

I have also been largely avoiding offensive players against the Bills, and a game against the Jets is unlikely to jolt me out of this approach. McGuire could potentially provide cheap exposure to a safe point-per-dollar floor — but last week was a special circumstance for considering McGuire, with how little there was to love from a “value” standpoint on the slate, and with McGuire likely to produce around nine to 10 points for an affordable price. In a tougher matchup, with what appears to be more to like on this slate, everyone on this Jets offense will be a tough sell for me.

Unsurprisingly, rostering DST units against either of these offenses has been profitable throughout the year, and that will likely remain the case this week. Both defenses are in play, with sacks and turnovers likely to pile up.

JAGUARS // COLTS OVERVIEW

Following their 3-1 start (with a loss to the Titans, wins over the lowly Giants and Jets, and a surprisingly dominant 31-20 victory over the Patriots), the Jaguars have lost four games in a row. They will emerge from the bye week traveling to Indianapolis to take on a 3-5 Colts team that is coming off back-to-back wins (over the Bills and Raiders), and that recently played both the Eagles and Texans close. The Colts have had two weeks to prepare as well.

This is quietly a pace-up game for both sides, as the Colts have played at the fastest pace in the NFL this season, and the Jags have played at the fourth fastest pace. Each team also ranks bottom five in time of possession, which leaves some minutes/plays to be added to this spot.

The hand-wringing over the Jags’ defense is unwarranted, as they have allowed the second fewest yards per game in the NFL, and even with the Jags’ offense giving the ball away more than 27 other teams, the Jags’ defense has still managed to allow the eighth fewest points per game. Jacksonville has allowed the seventh lowest red zone touchdown rate. (Indy ranks a respectable 12th in red zone touchdown rate on offense.)

The red zone matchup on the other side tilts strongly in favor of Indy, as the Jags have produced the third lowest red zone touchdown rate on offense, while Indy ranks right behind the Jags on defense (eighth in the NFL in lowest red zone touchdown rate allowed). Indy also has an edge in the “takeaway” department, ranking fifth in the league in takeaways. The Colts essentially run the same defense that the Buccaneers run, but they have the speed to make it work, leading to the second-lowest aDOT allowed and the sixth lowest YAC/R rate allowed.

Each offense should have a difficult time moving the ball, and each team will be looking to capitalize on whatever mistakes they can force from the opposing side. With Blake Bortles under center for the visiting team and Andrew Luck under center for the home squad, this tilts the matchup in favor of the Colts, who Vegas has installed as early three-point favorites, in a game with a surprising Over/Under of 47.0. The Jags have had only one game all season (against the Patriots) that rose above 47.0 combined points.

JAGUARS PASS OFFENSE

It is notable that no team in the NFL has more dropped passes on the year than the Jaguars, and beleaguered Bortles actually ranks ninth in the NFL in expected completion percentage — an interesting setup against a team in Indianapolis that forces short throws and tackles well, but that has allowed the second highest catch rate in the NFL (behind only the Bucs). Part of the knock against Bortles this year is that he has thrown nearly everything short, but this actually sets up nicely in this spot, as he should be able to produce a high completion rate as long as his receivers are holding onto the passes that come their way. The Colts rank only 20th in drive success rate allowed (in spite of forcing the fourth most turnovers per drive), which should allow the Jags to put together some sustained drives. Naturally, things should fall apart close to the end zone. As noted above: Indy ranks eighth in opponent red zone touchdown rate, while the Jags’ offense ranks 30th in red zone touchdown rate.

It has once again become impossible to figure out the Jags’ wide receiver rotation, as Weeks 7 and 8 saw them running Donte Moncrief on the slants and shallow crossing routes that they were previously using Dede Westbrook on. In Week 8, the Jags also played Keelan Cole only 15 snaps while giving D.J. Chark 48 snaps. Recent target counts on these four (Weeks 6 through 8) look like this:

:: Moncrief — 3 // 10 // 7
:: Westbrook — 5 // 4 // 6
:: Chark — 1 // 7 // 5
:: Cole — 5 // 7 // 3

Westbrook has topped six targets only once, while Moncrief has topped six targets in four of eight games. This has amounted to only two touchdowns and only one game north of 76 receiving yards for Moncrief. For whatever it might be worth, it is also worth pointing out that Moncrief’s targets have shown a tendency to dip against zone-heavy coverage schemes (the category in which the Colts fall), while rising against man-heavy coverage schemes. The Jags surely did some self-scouting during the bye to figure out how to fix their passing attack, but none of these guys have played especially well. Chark is the most exciting play of the bunch, given his size and his 4.34 speed, but he has also played as poorly as any of the other three.

Behind these guys, David Grinnage and Blake Bell are splitting tight end reps. This offense has not produced usable TE stat lines all year, and either guy would need a multi-touchdown game to become worth a spot on a roster.

JAGUARS RUN OFFENSE

The Jags’ offense could get back some of its juice this week with Leonard Fournette tentatively expected to return (this appeared to be the game the Jags were targeting for the last few weeks, and Fournette has been practicing early in the week). Last year on their way to the AFC Championship game, the Jags ranked 32nd in the NFL in pass play rate; this year, at 3-5, they rank fourth in pass play rate, as they have been unable to get anything going on the ground all year.

With the Jags adding Carlos Hyde via trade as an insurance policy for Fournette, they will have plenty of incentive to ease their star starter back in, which will likely render both guys unusable options against a middling Colts run D (12th in fewest yards allowed per carry) — especially as T.J. Yeldon should soak up some work on passing downs. If you do want to take a risk on Fournette’s workload returning to what we were used to in 2017, realize that he averaged a very strong 23.4 touches per game last season. Again: this usage should not be “expected” to be there this week, but there is an outside chance the Jags throw him all the way into the fire.

If Fournette misses, Hyde will handle early-down work while Yeldon will handle passing situations — lowering the floor and ceiling on each, but giving Yeldon some price-considered upside if the Colts jump out to an early lead.

COLTS PASS OFFENSE

This remains one of the most challenging matchups a quarterback can have, as the Jags have allowed the lowest catch rate in the NFL, and only three teams have allowed a lower YAC/R rate. The Jags have allowed the fewest completions in the league, the fewest passing yards, and the fewest passing touchdowns. Only three teams have faced a lower opponent pass play rate.

While the Colts began the year with the highest pass play rate in the NFL, they actually have the fourth lowest pass play rate across their last three games, with this team showing an ability to shape-shift, and with the emergence of Marlon Mack giving them extra incentive to keep the ball on the ground.

Over their last two games, targets on the Colts have looked like this:

:: T.Y. Hilton — 4 // 5
:: Eric Ebron — 7 // 3
:: Jack Doyle — DNP // 7
:: Chester Rogers — 4 // 1
:: Dontrelle Inman — 0 // 7
:: Nyheim Hines — 2 // 2
:: Marlon Mack — 3 // 4

This spread-the-wealth offense is going to need an unexpected volume spike to provide floor for any pass catcher. It can obviously be pointed out that Hilton always carries upside at home, given the way his speed plays on the turf.

The Jags have allowed the second fewest receptions in the league to running backs, the third fewest to wide receivers, and the fourth fewest to tight ends.

COLTS RUN OFFENSE

While teams have attacked the Jags on the ground, this has been done more to avoid the teeth of the Jags’ pass defense than to attack a clear weakness, as the Jags have allowed only 3.83 yards per carry to running backs (a number that drops to 3.48 if we take away the magical run Saquon Barkley had against them in Week 1 — a run only Barkley is capable of). The Jags rank middle of the pack in yards allowed to running backs, but only four teams have allowed fewer touchdowns to the position.

If you want to target this spot, recognize that Mack does possess unique upside, and it won’t be unexpected if he pops off for a long run or a touchdown — though a big game in this spot is obviously not the “likeliest scenario.”

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I was hoping to find one or two things to like in this game, but the Jaguars’ defense is just way too stout for me to have interest in any Colts players from an “optimal play” perspective — and even the upside-hunting that can be done on Hilton and Mack comes with a low floor and without a major price discount. Hilton has been given a bigger bump down in price across all three sites, but it’s more difficult to see a big game coming from him against this Jacksonville secondary.

On the Jags’ side, the wide receiver rotation is too convoluted to be targeted with confidence (and even if you guess right on who will see the most targets, there is no guarantee that these targets will turn into box score production), while the backfield appears to carry messy timeshare potential in a non-notable matchup. There are plenty of games to like on this slate — and as such, this is a game I will likely find myself leaving alone altogether, outside of possibly the defenses. Indy’s defense is the more attractive to me, given Bortles’ tendency toward mistakes, though they’ll move down my list a bit if Fournette returns, as the Jags will likely lean on the run more often (taking away opportunities for Bortles mistakes). If Fournette misses, the Colts’ defense becomes a significantly more appealing play.

PATRIOTS // TITANS OVERVIEW

It’s scary that three of the top four teams in the league (Patriots, Chiefs, Rams) have not yet had their bye week, as this will give these teams an opportunity to rest up, regroup, and improve late in the season before the final push for the playoffs. After this game at the Titans, the 7-2 Patriots will go on bye before closing out the year with a home game against the Vikings, a road game at the Steelers, and four games against weak AFC East opponents. The 4-4 Titans, on the other hand, have a winnable schedule down the stretch (out-of-division games against the Jets, Giants, and Redskins, mixed in with four games against the Colts, Jags, and Texans) — and given their ability to “win ugly,” it won’t be all that surprising if they find a way to sneak to the top of the AFC South when it’s all said and done. Obviously, “sneaking to the top of the AFC South” does not put the Titans in the same class as the Patriots, and Tennessee already has losses this year against the Dolphins and the Bills. But they also have wins over the Jags and Eagles, and they lost to the Chargers by one point. The Titans rank 30th in yards per game on offense and 29th in points per game, but they have made up for this by quietly allowing the fewest points per game in the National Football League, on the strength of the eighth fewest yards allowed per game and the best red zone touchdown defense in the NFL.

While everything above is factual, it is also a fact that the Titans have not yet played an offense like the Patriots. Five of the eight teams the Titans have faced so far rank outside the top 20 in the NFL in points per game, with only the Ravens (16th), the Texans (14th), and the Chargers (11th) approaching the conversation of “above-average offenses” (and you could argue that at least the Ravens, and possibly even the Texans, do not belong in the same tier as any of the teams ranked above them). Tennessee has five games already against teams that rank bottom 10 in red zone touchdown rate.

Vegas had hedged a bit in this spot, installing the Patriots as 6.5 point favorites, at Vegas-implied totals of 26.5 to 20.0. The Pats have topped 26.5 points in five of their last six games. The Titans have held their opponent below 26.5 in seven straight, but they have topped 20 points themselves on only two occasions.

PATRIOTS PASS OFFENSE

As a pass defense unit, the Titans have been entirely non-threatening, allowing a league-average aDOT and a league-average catch rate — holding opponents to a low YAC per reception rate in order to remain middle-of-the-pack in yards allowed per pass attempt. But the bigger issue — from a box score standpoint — is that the Titans play back against the pass between the 20s, inviting teams to attack them on the ground. Halfway through the season, the Titans are facing the 10th lowest opponent pass play rate. The Titans also play at a slow pace on offense (31st) and run the ball as much as any team in football (31st in pass play rate), which effectively shortens the game and has led to Tennessee not only running the fifth fewest plays per game themselves, but also allowing the fifth fewest opponent plays per game. Add it all together, and the Dolphins are the only team in the league whose games are featuring fewer total plays.

This has led to only five teams facing fewer pass attempts per game, which is a concern for “upside” from a passing attack that relies on volume over explosiveness, with Tom Brady sitting on an average intended air yards of only 7.5, and with the Patriots ranking a middling 15th in pass plays of 20+ yards. (The Titans have allowed the eighth fewest pass plays of 20+ yards.)

With Rob Gronkowski dipping in and out of the lineup lately, target counts on the Patriots have looked like this:

Rob Gronkowski — 7 // 4 // DNP // 8 // DNP
Julian Edelman — 9 // 7 // 8 // 10 // 10
Josh Gordon — 4 // 9 // 7 // 6 // 10
Phillip Dorsett — 3 // 0 // 1 // 0 // 3
Chris Hogan — 4 // 4 // 7 // 2 // 1
James White — 14 // 7 // 10 // 13 // 7

No team in the NFL has allowed fewer yards to the tight end position than the Titans, but to put that in context: the Titans have faced the Dolphins, Texans, Jags, Bills, Chargers, and Cowboys — none of whom feature the tight end position. Zach Ertz pasted this team for a 10-112-0 line on 14 targets in Week 4, and Gronk should have no trouble in this spot if the targets are there. The targets, of course, will be a question mark — and given the routes Gronk runs, he’s also the easiest team for an opponent to “scheme out of the game” if the Titans choose to dedicate extra attention to one guy. Gronk has proven this year that his floor is lower than it was in the past, but the ceiling is still there in this spot.

Edelman pulls the toughest matchup against Logan Ryan in the slot — but after practicing against Ryan for years on the Patriots, Edelman and Brady should have an idea of how to beat him. Edelman should see at least seven or eight targets in this spot — with upside for a couple additional looks if Brady has to unleash a few more passes than expected.

Gordon will run most of his routes at Malcolm Butler, who has been an absolute bust for the Titans thus far, ranking 143rd in the NFL (out of 168 listed corners) in receptions allowed per coverage snap, while giving up a 72.2% completion rate with seven touchdowns allowed to only one interception. PFF has charted Butler as allowing a QB rating of 141.8. Gordon’s floor is insecure, but his upside is big in this spot.

The Pats’ passing attack wraps up with White, who has been an elite force this year, with recent reception counts of 8 // 10 // 5 // 8 // 10 // 6, and with 10 total touchdowns on the year. Sony Michel is expected to return this week, but White will retain a big role regardless. When these backs shared the field in Week 6 against the Chiefs, the Patriots chose to attack heavily on the ground, but White still saw six carries of his own (39 yards) and went 5-53-0 through the air. The week before against the Colts, White went 10-77-0 through the air with Michel taking on 18 carries. With White’s price rising, it would be preferable if Michel missed, but White will have a shot at posting a strong score even if Michel is on the field.

As for Michel himself: he has only four receptions all season, but his last three games yielded carry counts of 25 // 18 // 24, and he has seven carries inside the five-yard-line already (fifth in the NFL) in spite of having played only about four and a half games. Tennessee has allowed a middling 4.03 yards per carry to running backs, but the Bears are the only team in the NFL that has allowed fewer rushing touchdowns to enemy backs — a scary stat for a yardage-and-touchdown guy like Michel.

TITANS PASS OFFENSE

The starting point for the Titans’ passing attack is the same stat we used last week:

If we take away the outlier 300-yard passing game this Titans team had against the Eagles, Taywan Taylor has not topped 32 yards in a game, and Corey Davis has not topped 62 yards in a game. Tajae Sharpe went for 101 yards out of nowhere in the Titans’ Week 7 tilt, but he had previously not topped 33 yards in a game.

All of these stats remain in place, on a Titans team that has produced only one game all year north of 240 passing yards. Tennessee ranks 30th in passing yards per game and 30th in passing touchdowns. The Patriots have faced the second most pass attempts in the NFL, but they have allowed the third lowest catch rate in the league (behind only the Jags and Ravens), and they rank sixth in fewest yards allowed per pass attempt. As noted the last couple weeks: Stephon Gilmore should be viewed right now in the same class as Tre’Davious White, as White and Richard Sherman remain the only corners in the league with at least 100 coverage snaps who have allowed fewer receptions per coverage snap. Gilmore has been targeted 48 times and has allowed only 20 catches, with a QB rating allowed of 69.2 (better than Sherman, and just a couple ticks below White and Patrick Peterson). Gilmore should shadow Davis, which will leave Marcus Mariota throwing to poor route runner Taylor or non-explosive Sharpe. Tennessee relies heavily on two tight end sets and — as noted earlier — is one of the run-heaviest teams in football.

If you feel compelled to put your faith in Mariota in this spot, your best bet is likely the big-play upside of Taylor — though Taylor played only 18 snaps last week before injuring his foot in the third quarter, and is no guarantee for more than one or two targets. If Taylor fails to return to the field this week, Cameron Batson (30 snaps last week, three targets) will be a last-gasp option.

TITANS RUN OFFENSE

The best way for the Titans to move the ball this year has been with Dion Lewis, who has seemingly taken control of the Titans’ backfield at this point — playing 59 snaps in Week 9 to only 14 snaps for Derrick Henry, after playing 45 snaps (to 24 for Henry) in Week 7 before the Titans’ bye. Lewis has touch counts of 19 and 23 in his last two games, with 10 total catches across these contests. The Patriots are tied with the Vikings, Titans, and Eagles for second fewest rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs, but New England has allowed the fourth most receptions and the second most receiving yards to the position. When pricing came out before the Titans’ Week 9 game on Monday night, Lewis was already priced too low for his role in this offense (9.67% of the cap on FanDuel // 9.2% on DraftKings // 10.3% on FantasyDraft), but with his role atop this backfield further solidified after Monday Night Football, he really pops off the page. I have to imagine the masses will be on this play, but outside of the low touchdown ceiling on this offense as a whole, there is nothing to dislike about this play. The only reasonable way for Lewis to fail is for the Titans to jump out to a big lead — and even then, they will likely discover that it is better to run the ball with Lewis than with Henry. If game flow goes as expected (with the Patriots taking a lead), Lewis will be guaranteed plenty of time on the field, and he will have a solid role in the pass game.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Lewis pops off the page in this spot and will certainly vault to the top of my early-week list. That’s all I can see on the Titans, as the rest of this offense has been an absolute mess — and even with opponents constantly playing from behind against New England, they have been one of the tougher teams to pass on, on a per-play basis. The Titans’ passing attack has been unusable almost all season, and it’s tough to see that changing with their main weapon locked up in sticky coverage from an elite corner.

On the Patriots, there is a “many mouths and not a ton of volume” problem, but I see a solid floor for Edelman and a solid ceiling for Gordon. Neither guy jumps off the page, but each guy belongs in consideration — with Gordon in particular carrying enough upside to become a viable tourney piece. Gronk is obviously in play as well — and he may even become chalk this week on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, where his price has dropped all the way down to 11.2% and 10.6% of the salary cap, respectively. (Even on FanDuel, he’s only 11.5% — though it’s easier to get up to Kelce on there.) The matchup is not much of a concern if Gronk is healthy…but that will be the question. Even if he plays, it will be difficult to be certain he is truly healthy. If he were priced a bit higher, he would likely be an industry-wide fade (making him a “game theory tourney play” with a lower floor than we would love)…but with the price drop, everyone will have to at least consider him this week, and this could lead to him blooming into cash game chalk (with heavy tourney ownership) if he is indeed set to play. This will be a fascinating situation to watch this week, and it will be interesting throughout the rest of this week’s NFL Edge to see if there are any cheap tight ends who have a higher floor/ceiling at this impossibly thin position.

The Patriots’ side of the ball wraps up with the backfield, where Michel is a modest-floor, solid-ceiling play as a running back on a high-scoring offense who needs touchdowns in order to truly matter. I’ll hope to find a more multi-use back to roster on my Main Build(s), but Michel will at least gain an early-week place on my tourney list for his upside in this offense. White rounds out this backfield as a monster floor/ceiling play if Michel misses, and as a solid-floor, solid-ceiling play if Michel takes the field. If Michel does happen to miss, Cordarrelle Patterson will become a “yardage and touchdown” play as well — with only one catch the last two weeks, but with 21 carries. Unless he scores multiple touchdowns, however, his likeliest role on this slate will be to take away points from others, rather than to pile up big points himself.

REDSKINS // BUCCANEERS OVERVIEW

This week, the first-place, 5-3, injury-wrecked Redskins will travel to Tampa to take on the bad-but-entertaining 3-5 Buccaneers in a matchup of extremely contrasting styles of play. The Bucs play at a top eight pace while Washington plays at a bottom five pace. Tampa ranks sixth in pass play rate while Washington ranks 22nd. And the Buccaneers’ offense is built around downfield passing, while the Redskins try to avoid downfield passing at all costs. This week, Washington lost both of their starting guards for the season, while Paul Richardson was put on Injured Reserve with his lingering shoulder issue. Starting left tackle Trent Williams missed Sunday’s game, and Washington’s lone true playmaker in Chris Thompson has played only one game since Week 5.

The good news for Washington, of course, is that they are taking on a Tampa team that ranks 28th in drive success rate allowed, and that is dealing with injuries of their own that have led to them being susceptible on the ground these days, in addition to their well-documented issues through the air.

Washington’s goal in this game will be to control the game on the ground as much as possible — slowing down the pace and hopefully taking a lead that can force Ryan Fitzpatrick into mistakes as he becomes more and more aggressive.

Tampa’s goal will be the opposite. They will try to jump out to an early lead that will put pressure on Washington to become more aggressive than they typically like to be. This will be a truly intriguing pairing of styles — and while the uncertainty introduced by this type of setup may prove to be too much for this game to be heavily considered in cash games, we will likely find some strong tourney options that emerge from this spot.

REDSKINS OFFENSE

You know the drill by now: Tampa is one of the most aggressive offenses in the NFL — and while this has led to them giving the ball away 21 times (the second most giveaways in the league), this has also led to them ranking seventh in the NFL in points per game and second in the NFL in yards per game. Furthermore, the Bucs cannot run the ball (29th in yards per carry; 23rd in rush attempts on the year), which has led to them piling up the most passing yards per game and the second most passing touchdowns in the NFL. Tampa plays at a fast pace and ranks sixth in pass play rate, which has allowed them to run the fourth most plays per game while still allowing a middling number of opponent plays per game. And with all of this, the Bucs have allowed the most points per game and the fourth most yards per game in the league, while allowing the second most yards per pass attempt in the league and giving up 22 passing touchdowns to only one interception. Frankly, it is a shame (and a waste) that Washington will likely try to lean on the run early in this game. This may give Washington their best shot at a win, but it will limit opportunities on what is routinely one of the best DFS spots on any given slate.

From a DFS perspective, an optimal scenario would call for the Redskins to fall behind early — which would lead to Smith pushing toward 40 pass attempts. This happened in Week 2 against Indy (46 pass attempts), in Week 5 against New Orleans (39 pass attempts), and in Week 9 against Atlanta (46 pass attempts). Atlanta — with their high-powered offense, and with their below-average aDOT but high catch rate allowed on defense — is the closest cousin of the Bucs, and the Redskins’ Week 9 game against the Falcons provides a convenient blueprint of how they are likeliest to attack in this spot if Tampa takes a lead.

After falling behind against Atlanta last week, Washington threw the ball 46 times, with only three of these passes traveling more than 20 yards downfield. Smith had another seven throws that traveled 15 to 20 yards, and he went one of seven on these attempts. In all, he completed two of his 10 passes that traveled 15+ yards (with one interception), while completing 28 of his other 36 passes. If Washington scores an early touchdown and figures out how to run the ball behind their beat-up offensive line, this entire passing attack will go into the tank. But if the Bucs jump out to a lead (or if Washington fails to get anything going on the ground), we should once again see a good 22 to 28 short completions from this offense — creating an interesting situation for targeting volume-based upside.

In last week’s high-passing affair, targets on the Redskins looked like this:

:: Josh Doctson — 6
:: Paul Richardson — 6
:: Maurice Harris — 12
:: Jordan Reed — 6
:: Vernon Davis — 7
:: Kapri Bibbs — 1
:: Adrian Peterson — 3

The targets to Doctson and Richardson (which may now be Doctson and Michael Floyd, with Richardson out) are largely wasted, as Smith is uncomfortable pushing the ball outside the numbers. He has yet to produce more than 63 yards to either of these guys.

Harris is a non-pedigree player, but he has provided reliable value for Smith across his last four games, catching 18 of 21 passes while providing a body over the middle and toward the sidelines on the short routes Smith prefers to take (and that the Bucs prefer to give). Harris’ relevance is dependent on two things: 1) The absence of Chris Thompson and Jamison Crowder, and 2) the Bucs jumping out to a lead. We’ll know before kickoff if CT and Crowder are playing. You can then guess if you think Washington will be forced into pass-heavy mode.

Smith rarely attacks up the seam, which has left Reed flattening out his routes and seeing most of his work on sideline-breaking routes within five yards of the line of scrimmage. This has been enough to provide respectable floor but poor ceiling. A bet on Reed at this point is a bet on extreme volume or a change in role. Reed has not topped 43 yards in five consecutive games.

Davis has cracked 43 yards in two of his last four games, as Washington has been using him on routes that get his momentum moving upfield while refusing to do the same for Reed. For whatever reason, Gruden’s designs have Reed running lower-upside routes — and while it is true that these trends can change, this has been a consistent theme throughout the Redskins’ season. Davis played 31 snaps last week to 38 for Reed and should be involved once again if Washington is forced to lean toward the pass.

When Thompson is out, the backs are barely involved in the pass game. A bet on Peterson is a bet on 1) The Redskins opening holes with their backup guards, and 2) The Redskins’ defense keeping Tampa’s aggressive attack in check.

If Thompson returns, he will immediately become an important part of this offense, and he will be the likeliest piece to soak up valuable targets if the Redskins fall behind.

BUCCANEERS RUN OFFENSE

Although Washington has not been particularly dominant against the run, teams are simply choosing not to attack this front — in the same way teams around the league avoid the run defenses of the Panthers and the Eagles. On the year, the Redskins have faced the fourth highest opponent pass play rate in the league, which has led to them facing the second fewest rush attempts in the NFL. The Bucs, on the other hand, have the 10th fewest rush attempts in the league, and only two teams have fewer rushing yards. Peyton Barber has yet to top 85 rushing yards in a game, and outside of an outlier game against the Falcons (24 receiving yards), he has yet to crack double-digits in yards through the air. Regardless of game flow, we should expect the Bucs to lean on the pass.

BUCCANEERS PASS OFFENSE

Washington’s defense tries to capitalize on forcing short throws (they have forced the third lowest aDOT in the NFL), while tackling well after the catch — but with a league-average catch rate allowed and a league-average YAC/R rate allowed, opponents are managing to keep drives going, and to pile up yards through the air, creating an average to slightly-above-average matchup for opposing wide receivers. The issue for us as DFS players, of course — in targeting Tampa pass catchers — has little to do with the matchup and much to do with the often-reiterated “too many mouths to feed on this offense” problem. Targets on this offense across the last four weeks look like this:

:: O.J. Howard — 4 // 9 // 4 // 6
:: Mike Evans — 5 // 11 // 13 // 10
:: DeSean Jackson — 9 // 4 // 8 // 4
:: Chris Godwin — 9 // 6 // 7 // 3
:: Adam Humphries — 4 // 9 // 10 // 8

Because each pass catcher in this offense has clear and consistent responsibilities, we can often narrow things down a bit based on the way the matchup sets up. For example: against Atlanta, we liked Godwin and Howard the most, and each guy topped 50 yards and scored a touchdown. And last week, we liked Howard at tight end and “Humphries and/or Godwin” as salary savers with solid floor and sneaky potential for upside. Howard (4-53-2) and Humphries (8-82-2) proved to be true difference-makers on the slate, but Godwin (2-40-0) played only 37 snaps and posted a dud. This is the concern when targeting these three pieces on this offense: any of these three can disappear on a given week. This week, the matchup sets up no better for any one over the other, but Howard has shown true and consistent playmaking ability (he genuinely ranks as a top five tight end in the league right now, in my estimation — and PFF actually has him rated out as the number one pass-catching tight end, just ahead of Kelce and Kittle), while Humphries is seeing far more consistent time on the field than Godwin. Of course, along with that comes the fact that Howard has (terrifyingly) topped four targets only three times all season, while Humphries has only two targets inside the 10-yard-line (compared to nine for Godwin — the third-most in the NFL). There is risk on all these guys, but there is potential for reward as well, in one of the most bankable high-scoring offenses in the league.

The safest bet on this offense is Evans, who is a clear bounce-back candidate after failing to a 1-16-0 line last week on a whopping 10 targets (a poor followup to his spectacular 6-179-1 line the week before). Through eight games, Evans has posted three disappointments, two solid scores, and three elite scores. He has seen double-digit looks in five of his last seven games. This matchup sets up no better or worse for him than it does for anyone else on this offense.

The highest point-per-dollar bet is Jackson, whose role is also clear, with only three games all year north of five targets, but with zero games below four targets. Jackson will get his deep shots, and he will either hit or not. If he hits, he becomes one of the more valuable pieces on the slate. If he misses, he disappoints. Further analysis is largely wasted, as the truth is as simple as “he hits or he doesn’t,” though this does seem like a spot in which DJax is less likely to see a spike in targets, as Tampa is facing a non-aggressive opponent.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Washington’s side of the ball probably requires too much guesswork for me to want these guys near my Main Team on a week with plenty to like in other spots, but I do think that Harris and Davis make for interesting pieces if building with the belief that Tampa will be as successful through the air as they have been for much of the season. Throwing Harris and/or Davis onto a roster with Evans and/or DJax could be a fun way to capture quite a bit of upside if Tampa can strike early. Harris has a respectable aDOT of 9.0, which gives him at least some shot at upside.

As is the case almost every week: I like Tampa’s passing attack, though I’m not quite sure where to go on it this week. Evans’ price stands out this week across all three sites, as his inconsistency popped up last week, but we were reminded of his ceiling just the week before. Especially in tourneys, this is a strong play — but I’ll also have Main Team consideration here. Away from Evans, I’m not sure I could pull the trigger on anything for small-field stuff, but Howard and DJax are always in play for their upside. I’ll likely take a stand against Humphries this week in the belief that last week was ‘Humphries Week,’ and that those who chase will see him land in his lower range; but that’s simply a game theory play, as there is nothing in this matchup to suggest Humphries is any more or less likely than normal to hit.

Naturally, I will also have interest in Ryan Fitzpatrick. Sometimes for better (Week 6 against Atlanta; Week 9 against Carolina), sometimes for worse (Week 4 against Chicago, Week 8 against Cincy), you can always tempt me with a Tampa quarterback this year. Patrick Mahomes is the only quarterback in the NFL with more passing touchdowns than “Tampa QB,” and no quarterback in the league has more yards than what Fitz and Jameis have combined for. It’s not always pretty, but they continue to play aggressive football and get the DFS job done.

FALCONS // BROWNS OVERVIEW

The Falcons are clinging to life in the NFC playoff race at 4-4., and they will travel to Cleveland this week to take on the 2-6-1 Browns. Cleveland has lost four straight since their win over the Ravens, dropping a close overtime game against the Bucs and getting pasted by the Chargers, Steelers, and Chiefs. Outside of a game against the Raiders, the Browns have failed to top 23 points in any game this season. The banged-up Falcons defense will give Cleveland a chance to finally eclipse this mark again — though Atlanta boasts a high-motor team that will do everything possible to make life difficult for Baker Mayfield and company. Vegas has kept the Browns just below 23.0 in their early-week numbers, with an Over/Under of 50.5 and Vegas-implied totals of 27.75 for the Falcons and 22.75 for the Browns.

Even with the coaching change in Cleveland, the Browns did not slow down their pace of play last week — overrating their ability to compete on offense, and holding steady at the third fastest pace in the league. Cleveland has allowed the most opponent plays per game this year, and even when we break out the overtime periods, Cleveland remains one of the most generous teams in the league in terms of opponent plays allowed. Atlanta also allows an above-average number of opponent plays per game, as they rank eighth in pass play rate and face the third highest opponent pass play rate on defense — creating additional opportunities for clock stoppages and for plays to pile up. This game should see a few extra plays added to both sides of the ball.

Atlanta has the better offense in this game :: fourth in drive success rate (29th for Cleveland) // fifth in yards per game (23rd for Cleveland) // eighth in points per game (23rd for Cleveland).

Cleveland has the better defense :: 10th in drive success rate allowed (Atlanta ranks dead last) // fourth in yards allowed per drive (Atlanta ranks dead last) // sixth in points allowed per drive (Atlanta ranks dead last). As noted last week, the Browns — in spite of their great “per drive” stats — actually rank 30th in yards allowed per game and 28th in points allowed per game, as their fast pace and their mistake-prone offense have allowed opposing teams to pile up plays; but on a per-play basis, this matchup is tough. Cleveland’s defense is weakest in the red zone (24th in opponent red zone touchdown rate), while Atlanta ranks seventh in red zone touchdown rate on offense.

FALCONS PASS OFFENSE

Cleveland has competed hard in the secondary this year, allowing the second lowest catch rate in the league and notching the third most interceptions. Only 10 teams have allowed fewer passing touchdowns than Cleveland, and only the Bears have allowed a lower quarterback rating. The Browns have already faced Ben Roethlisberger (twice), Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, and Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is the only quarterback in that group who topped 300 yards with multiple touchdown passes (Roethlisberger is the only other QB in that group to have topped 300 yards, and he added only one touchdown and three picks in that game). Mahomes is also the only quarterback in that group to notch more than two touchdowns against the Browns.

As noted last week :: The interesting thing about the Browns’ style of defense is that there is really no “type of receiver” or “type of route tree” that works best against them, as this unit has stymied John Brown while getting torched by Tyrell Williams; they forced Michael Thomas to pile up 12 catches just to reach 89 yards, but they let Mike Evans go 7-107-0 on 11 looks; they gave up 119 yards to JuJu Smith-Schuster in Week 1 and held him to 33 yards in Week 8; and they let Amari Cooper, of all players, go 8-128-1. When it comes down to it, this is a defense that is going to make life difficult on a per-play basis, but that is also going to get overaggressive a few times per contest, allowing one or two guys to pick up chunk gains.

Denzel Ward (who left last week’s game early but reportedly “looked good” on Wednesday) should see a decent chunk of Julio Jones, but the Falcons’ star receiver can win in this matchup if the targets are there. Ward has keyed the low completion rate allowed by this secondary, with a slim 55% completion rate allowed on 60 passes charted in his direction, but if Julio sees 12 to 14 targets, something like an 8-110-0 line is not at all out of the question. It is worth pointing out that Julio’s touchdown last week came from outside the red zone, and he is still sitting on an embarrassing three red zone targets (and zero red zone receptions) nine weeks into the season.

Behind Julio (who has recent target counts of 12 // 9 // 14 // 12 // 10), Calvin Ridley encouragingly came out of the bye playing the same number of snaps as Mohamed Sanu (after topping him by one snap in Week 7), and he has seen fairly steady target counts over his last five games (6 // 5 // 3 // 6 // 9). His unsustainable touchdown binge this year (seven touchdowns through eight games, on only five red zone targets and one target inside the 10) has him priced higher than he should be as a guy seeing five to six steady targets, with only one game all year north of 71 yards. But for whatever it’s worth: it did pop out to me when watching film this week that Ridley’s unique burst will create opportunities for him to hit for a big play against this aggressive defense. If the Browns get over-aggressive on a misdirection play or simply overplay the ball while hunting for an interception, Ridley could notch another long touchdown. His score in Week 9 came on a creative third down play that was designed to get him into open space, with Sanu literally blocking his guy out of the way before the ball was even thrown.

Sanu has seen his targets dwindle while playing through a hip injury, with recent target counts of 2 // 2 // 5. He has topped 46 yards only twice this year, and he is third in line for targets right now, though it’s never out of the question for him to hit for a big game.

The same could be said of Austin Hooper, who has recent target counts of 4 // 2 // 12 // 10 // 4 // 3. No one in the country knows when and why Hooper’s targets will spike. This is an above-average matchup for tight ends, making Hooper a low-floor, decent-upside play.

FALCONS RUN OFFENSE

The Falcons emerged from the bye last week feeding a season high seven targets to Tevin Coleman — getting him set up with consistent screen passes that worked him into open space. Washington had not shown any notable weakness to pass catching backs before that, though they are a team that opponents shy away from on the ground (fourth highest opponent pass play rate faced), so there remains a chance this was game plan specific. As noted time and again in this spot: Steve Sarkisian has consistently failed to utilize his backs out of the backfield — a shame given how explosive both Coleman and Devonta Freeman can be in this area. If Coleman sees a heavy target share again, he’ll set up as a potentially explosive play against a Cleveland defense that has allowed the fifth most receiving yards in the league to the position, while giving up the second most running back touchdowns. If Coleman drops back to the target range in which he entered Week 9 (3 // 3 // 2 // 2 // 2), he’ll be a “yardage and touchdown” back who can be counted on for 10 to 15 carries.

While Coleman has recent touch counts of 17 // 9 // 11 // 13 // 18, Ito Smith has not been far behind him, with touch counts in that same stretch of 10 // 4 // 13 // 9 // 11. Smith has, incredibly, scored four touchdowns in his last five games. Another touchdown here would make him “salary-saver relevant” once again.

BROWNS PASS OFFENSE

Last week was encouraging for the Browns, as Mayfield notched his highest completion rate in a start this year, while piling up his highest yards per pass attempt in four games. Freddie Kitchens used David Njoku as a big body over the middle; he used Jarvis Landry as a “possession receiver with the ability to go downfield,” rather than trying to turn him into a true downfield threat (four of Landry’s six catches came within five yards of the line of scrimmage); and he used Duke Johnson as a mismatch-maker out of the backfield.

Yards will likely pile up for this passing attack, but it is difficult to pinpoint any individual players likely to post a big game, as this team is developing a broad target distribution :: seven different players saw at least four targets last week (think about that for a moment…), and 10 players in all saw at least one target — including Seth DeValve and Dontrell Hilliard. The only players to see more than six targets were Landry (seven) and Duke (nine). Most of Duke’s targets were concentrated around the two-minute offense, and a more reasonable projection for him is one or two carries and six or seven targets.

If you feel compelled to consider guys in this offense, I don’t blame you, as Atlanta has been one of the most generous defenses in the league, and the Browns are an ascending unit, playing at home. Landry’s upside appears limited against a team that forces a below-average aDOT and tackles well after the catch, but he carries the highest floor. Njoku has a good matchup and should return solid tight end value. Antonio Callaway carries the highest upside among remaining wide receivers, though we know by now how low his floor is. Duke is obviously intriguing against a pass defense that has (once again) allowed the most running back receptions in the NFL — though his carries should remain limited, which leaves him needing high efficiency on his targets in order to pay off. I’m also comfortable this week — in this improving offense — expecting 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns from Mayfield. He has thrown two touchdowns in three consecutive games, and he fell just shy of 300 yards last week (297). The Bucs and Saints are the only teams that have allowed more fantasy points per game to the quarterback position.

This offense rounds up with Nick Chubb and the Cleveland rushing attack, vs an Atlanta team that ranks 29th in fewest yards allowed per carry, in spite of a long run allowed of only 35 yards (i.e., the production against Atlanta has been steady and consistent — as evidenced by this team ranking 30th in adjusted line yards on defense). As noted earlier: teams typically attack Atlanta through the air, but Chubb is being clearly leaned on as the featured back, with recent carry counts of 18 // 18 // 22. Twenty touches is a safe bet in this spot. Because Chubb has only three total receptions (six targets) through these three starts, he needs to score touchdowns in order to pay off — giving him a lower floor than we would love. But he does carry upside against this defense.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I wanted to really like Julio in this spot, in the same way I really liked him last week, though this aggressive Cleveland defense provides a less appealing spot than what Julio had last week against the Redskins. Catch volume is a big part of Julio’s value, making a matchup against Cleveland (second lowest catch rate allowed) a less-than-ideal spot. This is not a terrifying draw for Julio, but it is a bit below-average, making him a “bet on talent and workload” play, rather than a guy to automatically lock-and-load in place.

This is an above-average spot for another long score from Ridley — but he costs more than his workload warrants, making him a low-floor, solid-ceiling play at his price, rather than a “safety with upside” option.

Because the Falcons’ offense has the ability to pile up points, I’ll also have moderate interest in Matt Ryan and Tevin Coleman in tourneys, though neither guy stands out in this spot (for Ryan, because of the matchup; for Coleman, because of the spotty usage through the air).

On the Browns, Mayfield is the play I like the most, as I expect the Browns’ passing attack to pile up yards, but I don’t feel confident that I can pinpoint any individual pass catcher likely to contribute a large chunk of those yards. I could see taking a shot on Njoku or Duke in tourneys, and even Landry is a respectable play on the bet that perhaps he sees a bit more downfield work this week. Obviously, none of these guys stand out as locked-in options.

The same goes for Chubb, as a true yardage-and-touchdown guy. He may hit for a touchdown or two in this spot — but if he doesn’t, he’ll be hurting your team. If you want to go to him, you can be encouraged by the fact that the Browns remained dedicated to the run last week even after falling behind. I expect Chubb to get his 20 touches here, removing “workload” from the pile of concerns for me. The big concern is simply that he can return pretty disappointing results if he fails to reach the end zone.

LIONS // BEARS OVERVIEW

The 3-5 Lions are technically still in the playoff hunt, though the first-place, 5-3 Bears will look to put an end to that when Detroit travels to Chicago this week. This game matches a pair of ball control teams (the Bears rank third in time of possession, while the Lions rank seventh), with a big edge going to the Bears on either side of the ball. Through eight games, the Lions rank 22nd in points per game while the Bears rank fourth in fewest points allowed per game. On the other side, the Bears’ offense ranks quietly ranks fifth in points scored per game (behind only the Chiefs, Saints, Rams, and Patriots), while only nine teams have allowed more points per game than Detroit. Matt Patricia’s defense ranks 27th in drive success rate allowed, and only three teams have been worse at scoring touchdowns in the red zone than the Lions. With the Bears returning Khalil Mack this week — one week after Matthew Stafford took an incredible 10 sacks against the Vikings — this shapes up as a tough spot for the visiting team.

LIONS PASS OFFENSE

Chicago has been tough to pass on this year, ranking fourth in fewest yards allowed per pass attempt, while allowing the lowest quarterback rating in the league. Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady both managed to carve up this defense for three touchdown passes, but the Bears have allowed only seven touchdown passes in their other six games, while picking off 14 passes on the season (second most in the league). Even after a pass rush lull in the absence of Mack, the Bears rank seventh in the NFL in sacks. Sacks had not been a major issue for the Lions before the departure of Golden Tate, but it may take Stafford another week or two to adjust to the absence of his favorite outlet.

As noted the last few weeks, the Lions are attempting to become a more run-oriented offense, though that will be difficult this week against a Chicago squad that has allowed the fifth fewest yards per carry in the league and is the only team in football that has not yet given up a running back touchdown on the ground. Opponents have skewed toward the pass against Chicago this year, in order to attack the lesser of this team’s two strengths.

Marvin Jones quietly saw disappointing usage last week, in spite of his eight targets, as five of his targets came within about eight yards of the line of scrimmage (with no targets coming more than 20 yards downfield) — a far cry from the immense “upside” role that is typically Jones’ calling card. On the other hand, of course: eight targets has value, and Jones’ red zone role is secure, with 11 targets inside the 20 (to only five for Kenny Golladay). Naturally: Jones’ low-upside usage could also be just a one-week blip, rather than a precursor of things to come with Golden Tate’s short-area game absent from the team.

After averaging over 8.0 targets per game through the Lions’ first five contests (with three touchdowns scored in these games), Golladay has seen target counts of 2 // 1 // 4 in their last three games (failing to crack even 50 yards in any of those games, and failing to find the end zone). Spots like this are never comfortable, but it is worth pointing out that the trade of Tate signals confidence in Golladay’s development, and it seems likely that his targets will rise in the weeks ahead. T.J. Jones saw only two targets last week on 36 snaps (51.4% snap rate), with the Lions leaning heavily on multiple-back alignments and two tight end sets. Golladay is going to be on the field for nearly every play — and he is the guy the Lions feature on the intermediate routes over the middle of the field against which the Bears can be susceptible.

Michael Roberts and Luke Willson combined for a 3-29-0 line on six targets last week, in one of the better tight end matchups in football. The Bears are one of the more challenging tight end matchups.

The other main piece in the passing attack is Theo Riddick, who had zero carries but eight targets last week (which he turned into a 7-36-0 line). Riddick lined up at receiver 14 times and in the backfield 25 times, giving him a hybrid role in this offense as a valuable outlet on third downs — though he’ll obviously need to bust a long play and/or score a touchdown in order to return any serious value.

This offense wraps up with Kerryon Johnson, who continued to (mercifully) operate ahead of LeGarrette Blount, with 39 snaps for the rookie to 11 for the washed-up veteran. Johnson saw 12 carries and three catches (five targets), and he has room to add a few extra carries if this game stays close. As noted above: the Bears have been one of the toughest teams in football to run on, and they are the only team that has not yet allowed a running back to score on the ground.

BEARS RUN OFFENSE

Life does not actually work like this, but…if we take away the 70-yard run Dalvin Cook had against the Lions last week, this run defense held Latavius Murray and Cook to a 19-50-1 line on the ground (2.63 YPC), after holding Chris Carson and Mike Davis to a 35-138-1 line (3.94 YPC) — showing marked improvement with Snacks Harrison added to the center of this unit. Of course: the 70-yard run that Cook had remains part of the equation against the Lions. As noted two weeks ago when Snacks was added: it takes more than one player to make a run defense good, and there are still issues on the second level for the Lions that can expose them to big plays on the ground.

With Detroit tightening up on runs up the gut but remaining susceptible to big plays, this is a “tough to get excited about” spot for Jordan Howard, who has only one run all season of 20+ yards, and who has not topped 82 rushing yards in a game. After Howard worked on his pass-catching skills in the offseason and was featured in this role early in the year, he has seen his workload scaled back dramatically, with four targets and only one reception across his last five games.

Outside of an outlier game against Tampa (13 carries), Tarik Cohen has seen exactly five or six carries in all but one other game (a four-carry game early in the year) — providing him with a few opportunities to break off a long play against this run defense, but without any floor added to this equation. Naturally, the best bet for upside from Cohen is pass game involvement, as he has four games this year with 69+ receiving yards (to go with four other games under 20 receiving yards). The safest bet for targets is a back-and-forth affair (i.e., if you roster Cohen, you are essentially betting on the Lions’ offense putting up points — which you should account for by also rostering at least one of the upside pieces on that side of the ball), though Matt Nagy did go out of his way in that Week 4 blowout win over Tampa to get the ball into Cohen’s hands, feeding him 13 carries and eight targets in a 48-10 victory.

BEARS PASS OFFENSE

The Cardinals and Raiders are the only teams in football that have faced a lower pass play rate than the Lions — a trend that has continued even with the addition of Harrison to the Lions’ front. No team has faced fewer pass attempts than the Lions — and as such, the Jaguars are the only team that has allowed fewer passing yards.

The frustrating component, from a DFS perspective, is that the Lions have proven to be extremely attackable through the air this year, with 16 passing touchdowns allowed (only nine teams have allowed more, in spite of the low volume), 8.5 yards allowed per pass attempt (fourth worst in the league), the second deepest aDOT allowed in football, and an opponent catch rate that ranks sixth worst in the league. If a team chose to attack Detroit through the air, they would have success — but so far, Aaron Rodgers (52 passes) and Brock Osweiler (31 passes) are the only quarterbacks who have topped even 27 pass attempts against this team. Trubisky has recent pass attempt numbers of 26 // 31 // 50 // 29 // 20 — with that 50-pass outlier coming in a shootout against the Patriots. This creates significant volume concerns, as the Lions will almost certainly have to perform well on offense in order for volume to pile up for the Bears’ passing attack. Same as with Cohen: rostering Bears pass game components is essentially “a bet on the Lions doing well on offense.” If making this bet, you should account for it by layering in one or two Upside pieces from that side of the ball.

If we take away the Patriots game, targets among pass catchers during this stretch look like this:

:: Trey Burton — 4 // 4 // 4 // 3
:: Allen Robinson — 4 // 6 // DNP // DNP
:: Taylor Gabriel — 7 // 5 // 6 // 5
:: Anthony Miller — 5 // 4 // 7 // 6

The best way to attack the Lions is over the middle of the field, where Miller primarily operates. He has yet to top 49 yards in a game this season.

The best Upside bet is Gabriel, who continues to see targets downfield. His floor is low, but his ceiling is solid if he connects on a deep ball or two.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

I may not end up using any players from this game, but I’ll have tourney interest in Golladay for the slate-winning upside he can provide at a low price if the targets suddenly show up, and I’ll also have tourney interest in Jones for the large workload at an affordable price. Floor in this matchup is thin, but Randall Cobb, DeSean Jackson, Albert Wilson, and Josh Gordon have all topped 100 yards against the Bears. Neither Golladay nor Jones sets up particularly well in this matchup, but there is really no one else for the Lions to throw to if they fall behind.

You could also argue for Riddick as a salary saver, but a lot of guesswork goes into the play — and the matchup is difficult against a Bears team that has not gotten hit by any pass-catching backs beyond James White.

Given the way teams consistently attack the Lions on the ground (and given the thin upside Howard carries), a bet on the Bears is a bet on the Lions keeping this game competitive throughout. If making that bet, I would likely roster Golladay (and possibly even Jones) on the Lions, while rostering Cohen on the Bears. Whenever Bears games remain close, Cohen is the guy who has the greatest chance of popping off, as this team is using him in consistent and creative ways. Behind Cohen, it would be a guessing game among the remaining options, but the matchup is not prohibitive on any of these guys.

SAINTS // BENGALS OVERVIEW

The clear game of the week from a DFS perspective, Saints at Bengals features two teams with high-scoring offenses, generous defenses, and playoff aspirations. The 7-1 Saints rank second in the NFL in points per game, while the 5-3 Bengals rank 10th. New Orleans has allowed the sixth most points per game, while Cincy has allowed the third most. Each defense ranks bottom four in drive success rate allowed and bottom 10 in red zone touchdown rate allowed. The Saints rank first in drive success rate on offense (the Bengals rank ninth), while Cincinnati ranks first in the league in red zone touchdown rate on offense, compared to sixth for the visiting Saints. The Bengals have forced the fewest punts per game, while the Saints have forced the second fewest. Unsurprisingly, no team in the NFL has punted less often than the Saints.

Vegas has gotten behind this game with an early-week Over/Under of 54.0, installing the Saints as 5.5 point favorites on the road. The Bengals have scored 30+ points in four of eight games, and have also allowed 30+ points four times. The Saints have incredibly scored 30+ points six times, while allowing 30+ three times.

This game may start slowly as the two teams feel each other out — but as this game moves along, the aggressiveness and scoring will likely pick up, leading to plenty of upside on both sides of the ball.

SAINTS OFFENSE

Cincinnati ranks 23rd in yards allowed per pass attempt, and only three teams in the NFL have allowed more passing touchdowns than the Bengals — with this team allowing an increase on the league-average aDOT of more than 9% and allowing an above-average catch rate along the way. So far this year, the Bengals have allowed Andrew Luck, Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Patrick Mahomes, and “Tampa QB” to top 300 passing yards, while Ryan Tannehill and Roethlisberger are the only quarterbacks who have failed to throw for multiple touchdown passes in this spot.

Working against Drew Brees is a run-leaning offense that — as much as people want to believe it’s not true — now ranks 24th in the NFL in pass play rate, one year after ranking 20th. Even in a back-and-forth affair against the Rams last week, New Orleans threw the ball on only 51.43% of their plays (this would rank 31st in the NFL on the full season), and they have thrown the ball on fewer than 50% of their plays since Mark Ingram returned. Somewhere around 30 to 32 pass attempts is once again Brees’ expected range. He topped 32 pass attempts in only three of his last 10 games in 2017 (and topped 36 pass attempts only once), while his 36 attempts last week were the first time he had topped 32 since Ingram’s suspension ended. We should keep in mind that this run-leaning approach led to Brees topping 300 yards only once in his final 10 games last season. Outside of a couple deep shots per game, this passing attack has primarily worked the short areas of the field this year — feeding a possession-like aDOT of 7.7 to Michael Thomas while peppering Alvin Kamara with 66 targets on the year. To sum up the last two paragraphs: Brees should have no trouble on a per-play basis, but he’ll need a broken play (or a couple deep connections) to pop off for big yardage. Your best bet for upside from Brees is a multi-score game.

Target counts on this offense since Ingram returned have looked like this:

:: Michael Thomas — 5 // 9 // 6 // 15
:: Alvin Kamara — 4 // 2 // 8 // 5
:: Tre’Quan Smith — 3 // 6 // 4 // 3
:: Ben Watson — 4 // 6 // 0 // 4
:: Mark Ingram — 3 // 2 // 3 // 2

Thomas showed last week what his upside can still look like in this offense — though it should be noted that the Bengals are not in the same class of offense as the Rams, and are unlikely to force the Saints to attack as aggressively as they did last week. Thomas saw three targets last week more than 15 yards downfield, while most games this year have featured him on one or zero such looks. Eight to 10 targets is a comfortable projection for him this week.

Kamara has encouragingly piled up 16.3 carries per game over his last three contests, to go with his average of five targets per game in this stretch. He is losing some red zone work to Ingram, but he is still seeing more than enough scoring opportunities to matter. Snap counts between Kamara and Ingram the last four weeks have looked like this:

Kamara — 31 // 39 // 38 // 41
Ingram — 36 // 35 // 23 // 34

Ingram, of course, is less involved in the pass game, but he has carry counts of 16 // 12 // 13 // 9. After tough matchups against Washington, Baltimore and Minnesota — followed by a shootout against the Rams that tilted in favor of Kamara — this is a sneaky-good spot for Ingram, against a Bengals run defense that ranks 30th in yards allowed per carry, with 10 running back touchdowns allowed on the year (seventh most in the NFL). Since returning, Ingram has six carries inside the 10-yard-line and four carries inside the five. A comfortable backfield breakdown here is something like 16 carries and five catches for Kamara, with a projection of 14 carries and two catches flowing Ingram’s way. Kamara is the higher-upside option with his big-play talent, but Ingram carries solid floor and ceiling himself, especially for his surprisingly low price.

BENGALS PASS OFFENSE

The big story on this side of the ball is A.J. Green and the 9.5 targets he will leave behind as he sticks to the sidelines with a toe injury. With John Ross set to return to the field this week, three-wide sets for the Bengals should feature Tyler Boyd, Ross, and Alex Erickson.

We’ll start our exploration of this passing attack in the same place where Andy Dalton is likely to start his progressions most plays: Tyler Boyd. Boyd has played 324 of his 429 snaps out of the slot this year (73.8%), while Marshon Lattimore has traveled into the slot only 5% of the time. This will leave Boyd on major coverage liability P.J. Williams, who ranks 136th in the NFL in receptions allowed per coverage snap, with a 72.1% completion rate allowed and five touchdowns given up in his direction (compared to only one interception). PFF has charted Williams with a quarterback rating allowed of 130.6 — and while the Saints will obviously aim to be aware of Boyd, doing what they can to make life difficult on him, the nature of the routes he runs will make it tough for the Saints to do much beyond just hoping Williams can hang with him. Boyd is already averaging 8.25 targets per game, and he should see a small bump for as long as Green is out. Expect Boyd to be one of the most popular plays on the slate, for good reason.

Most of the DFS attention outside of Boyd is likely to go to speedster Ross, who will try to take advantage of a matchup against a New Orleans defense that has allowed the sixth most pass plays of 20+ yards and the second most pass plays of 40+ yards. It should be noted, however, that Ross really cannot replace much of what Green provides to this offense, which could keep his targets lower than many will likely expect. In his healthy games this year, Ross has target counts of 2 // 4 // 7 // 2 // 1. He has hauled in only seven of his 16 targets, for 79 yards.

Erickson is the true wildcard, with recent snap counts (starting from Week 4) of 36 // 36 // 46 // 20 // 51. He has target counts during that stretch of 2 // 3 // 3 // 2 // 4, though he has connected on only eight of these 14 looks, for a paltry 44 yards.

This passing attack will round out with C.J. Uzomah, who has recent target counts of 2 // 7 // 2 // 4, and will be taking on a Saints defense that has quietly allowed the sixth fewest catches, the sixth fewest yards, and the third fewest touchdowns to the tight end position — with several above-average tight ends faced this year. The Saints have allowed a completion rate to tight ends of only 56.9%, compared to an eye-popping, “that can’t be right” completion rate of 72.4% allowed to wide receivers.

BENGALS RUN OFFENSE

The Saints’ defense is on the opposite end of the spectrum against the run, with the second fewest rushing yards allowed in the NFL to running backs, and with a league-best yards per carry allowed to running backs of only 3.1. The Saints have also been above-average against running backs out of the backfield, allowing the 12th fewest receiving yards to the position.

My first thought when I started thinking about this game — and about the fact that Green is going to miss — was that this set up well for Joe Mixon to help move the chains as a multi-use back (in addition to recent carry counts of 21 // 22 // 11 // 13 // 21, he has recent target counts of 1 // 4 // 7 // 5 // 4), but this is a challenging matchup all the way around for running backs, and Mixon should lose at least a few touches this week to Giovani Bernard, who is expected to return. We can likely pencil in Mixon for 20+ touches, which does carry immediate value; but with only one game all year north of 22 receiving yards — and with a tough matchup on the ground and Bernard back in the fold for at least a small role — there are some obvious Floor concerns to go with the usage-driven upside.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

On the Bengals’ side of the ball, Boyd (unsurprisingly) pops off the page as one of the safest, highest-upside wide receiver plays on the slate — with the only clear justification for fading him in tourneys going something like this: “He’ll be massively owned, and the NFL is a crazy place where anything can happen.” I’ll have Boyd locked onto my Main Build early in the week, and I won’t be surprised if I choose to go overweight on him in tourneys.

Behind Boyd, Dalton carries some upside — though with all the scoring the Bengals have done (first in the NFL in red zone touchdown rate), they rank all the way down at 24th in yards per game, and their inability to stop opponents from putting together long, sustained drives has left them sitting at 27th in plays per game, one year after finishing 32nd. The Saints hold opponents to the seventh fewest opponent plays per game, so it could be difficult for Dalton to pop off for a truly big box score — especially without his top weapon on the field. He’s a bet-on-matchup Upside play, but his floor is lower than some other quarterbacks on the slate.

I’ll have thin interest in Ross and Erickson, but unless I find something on these guys deeper in the week than I am finding now, each feels like a thin play. While Ross is an obvious candidate for upside — given his speed and his downfield skill set — he’s also an obvious candidate for a high-owned dud. Optimally, we would avoid high-volatility players when they project to be highly owned (which I’m tentatively expecting from Ross, as it seems likely he will get talked up during the second half of the week) — knowing that this will invariably lead to profit over time.

On the Saints’ side, Thomas is a Floor play with touchdown-driven upside, while Brees is a bet-on-efficiency play. Neither is a guy I’ll be moving around salary to fit, but I would be happy to find either on my roster.

The best piece on the Saints appears to be their backfield, where we can pencil in Kamara for 20 to 22 touches while expecting 15 to 17 touches for Ingram. Talent gives Kamara slate-breaking upside, while expected usage gives Ingram a strong point-per-dollar floor to go with the upside that his multi-touchdown potential can generate. Ingram has scored in nine of his last 16 games, with multiple touchdowns in four of those contests.

With Dez Bryant likely to be on the field for a handful of snaps this week and the Saints spreading the ball behind Thomas, Kamara, and Ingram, it’s tough to bet on “floor” from other pieces on this attack, but you can always take a shot on upside in this offense, with Tre’Quan and Watson perfectly fine players to chase from a “could be solid” perspective.

CHARGERS // RAIDERS OVERVIEW

The Raiders have gutted their roster since the last time these teams met — embracing a tank year and piling up draft picks so that Jon Gruden (for better or worse) can build from the ground up. When these teams played in Week 5, it marked the beginning of the defensive turnaround for L.A.’s unloved child, with the Chargers holding the Raiders to 10 points on 309 total yards. Since then, the Chargers have allowed 14 points to the Browns, 19 points to the Titans, and 17 points to the Seahawks. The Raiders have point totals since then of 3 // 28 // 3.

The Chargers quietly rank dead last in pace of play, while the Raiders rank 29th. The Chargers are one of the NFL’s more run-heavy teams (21st in pass play rate), and no defense in football faces a lower pass play rate than Oakland, as teams consistently ignore the air and attack this team on the ground. Like Detroit: Oakland is attackable through the air (a league worst 9.1 yards allowed per pass attempt, with the second most passing touchdowns allowed in the NFL), but also like Oakland, teams simply choose to attack this team on the ground. The Lions are the only team in football that has faced fewer pass attempts than the Raiders.

The Chargers, on the other hand, are middling against both the pass and the run — and the strength of this pass defense (forcing short throws) is not a major detriment to Derek Carr and his league-low average intended air yards. The bigger concern, of course, is that the Raiders have shown no ability to score touchdowns (25th in red zone touchdown rate, 28th in points per game), and minus Marshawn Lynch and Amari Cooper, it is going to be difficult for this unit to buck those trends.

CHARGERS PASS OFFENSE

If the Chargers decide to break script and attack through the air, this will be one of the easiest matchups they could ask for, as no team has allowed more touchdowns per pass attempt than the Raiders, and no team has allowed more yards per pass attempt. To help illustrate just how embarrassing the Raiders’ league-worst sack total is: there are only four teams in football with fewer than 17 sacks. The Raiders are the only team below double-digits…with seven sacks on the year.

Of course, a bet on the Chargers’ passing attack is a bet on one of two things:

1) You could bet on the Chargers breaking away from their extremely run-heavy ways (since Week 1, Philip Rivers has pass attempt totals of 27 // 30 // 39 // 27 // 20 // 26 // 26) — against a defense that has faced the lowest pass play rate in the league. Or,

2) You could bet on one of the pieces of the Chargers’ passing attack hitting for a couple big plays.

Over the last four weeks (starting from the last game against the Raiders), targets on the Chargers look like this:

:: Keenan Allen — 9 // 6 // 5 // 10
:: Tyrell Williams — 3 // 4 // 4 // 3
:: Mike Williams — 4 // 4 // 3 // 3

Antonio Gates and Virgil Green have combined for target counts in that stretch of 3 // 2 // 4 // 3.

Last week, Allen uncharacteristically saw seven targets that traveled more than 10 yards downfield, including a deep shot that went for an awesome 54-yard gain. As noted repeatedly in this space: Allen is being used almost exclusively as a possession-type receiver, with his downfield target last week marking his first target of 20+ yards since Week 3. A bet on Allen is a bet on the Chargers throwing more than normal, or on Allen seeing another couple downfield looks.

Tyrell and Mike, of course, each carry upside on their looks — but each guy carries a thin floor with how little this offense is passing.

The matchup, it should go without saying, is excellent for all these guys.

CHARGERS RUN OFFENSE

A quiet byproduct of the Chargers’ run-heavy ways is that Melvin Gordon has not topped four targets in any of his last four games. And with the Chargers playing at such a slow pace (and keeping the clock running on the ground), this team also ranks 30th in plays per game — which has led to Gordon notching carry totals on the year of 15 // 9 // 15 // 15 // 19 // 18 // 16. The Raiders have allowed the fourth fewest opponent plays per game, so a volume spike is unlikely to be in the cards here — requiring Gordon to notch incredible efficiency on his 18 to 20 looks in order to pay off his swollen price tag (14.83% of the salary cap on FanDuel…and a massive 18.0% on DK and 17.0% on FDraft). Working in his favor is a matchup against a Raiders team allowing 4.8 yards per carry (28th in the NFL), with 10 touchdowns allowed to the running back position (only six teams have allowed more). On paper, Gordon’s red zone role pales in comparison to guys like Conner, Hunt, and Gurley, but that’s only because Gordon has been so incredibly efficient on his red zone touches — scoring nine red zone touchdowns on only 22 red zone touches (a 40.9% rate — compared to 15 touchdowns on 57 red zone touches for Gurley, a 26.3% rate).

The slow pace and low play volume for this Chargers team has also taken some of the shine off Austin Ekeler, who has touch counts of only 7 // 7 // 4 in the last three games Gordon played. Ekeler will need a spike in usage to become anything but a hope-and-pray play.

RAIDERS PASS OFFENSE

Over his last three games, Carr has pass attempt totals of only 31 // 28 // 21, though the Raiders have averaged only 53.0 plays per game during this stretch — about nine plays per game below their season-long rate. Low play volume will always be a concern on this team — which combines a non-explosive offense with a defense that cannot stop the run — but Carr should be able to push for 30+ pass attempts in this spot, if you want to pretend like there is some good news on this side of the ball.

Much like the Giants on Monday Night Football a few weeks ago against the Falcons: this is actually a quality spot for the Raiders’ style of passing attack, as this team capitalizes on completing short passes and picking up yards after the catch. The Chargers’ defense should comply in this area, as they focus on forcing short throws, and they have been below-average after the catch. Unlike the Giants, however (who had Sterling Shepard and Odell Beckham in that game to target for upside), the Raiders’ pieces with the ball in their hands will be Jordy Nelson, Seth Roberts, and Brandon LaFell. In two games since Amari was traded, targets on this team look like this:

:: Jordy — 4 // 3
:: Roberts — 4 // 2
:: LaFell — 4 // 3
:: Jared Cook — 5 // 2

While it is likely that Oakland will squeeze off a few more pass attempts than they had the last couple weeks, it will be difficult for any of these guys to find major upside. The Raiders quietly have the second highest completion rate in the NFL, but once the ball is in the hands of these low-upside guys, very little is happening. The highest-upside piece in this “attack” is Cook, who has finished with 20 or fewer yards in three of his last four games, but who mixed in a strong 4-74-1 line during that stretch. The Chargers have been a middling matchup for tight ends this year.

RAIDERS RUN OFFENSE

Since Marshawn Lynch went down, Doug Martin has seen 13 and 11 carries, with four targets and three total catches across those two games. If the Raiders are able to keep this game close, there is a chance Martin will see 15 to 18 carries — and the rare goal line opportunity on this offense would be set to go his way. Obviously, in the absence of touchdowns or a broken play, Martin will provide little value.

The more valuable piece in this backfield has been Jalen Richard, who is a “bet on the Raiders falling behind” piece. Richard has recent target counts of 7 // 5 // 6 // 8 // 8 // 4. He has yet to reach 60 receiving yards in a game and he has topped two carries only once, with zero touchdowns on the year — leaving him as a “bet on floor and hope for upside” play on a team that is likely to find themselves trailing once again.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Pricing psychology may actually lead to Gordon being more popular this week than he otherwise would be (when a player’s price climbs this high, it almost comes across as the sites giving an endorsement to this player — which can lead to people thinking they have to move around salary to fit that guy), making it worth noting that Gordon has shown a low touch ceiling on the year. A bet on Gordon is a bet on efficiency. Given what he has done this year, Gordon has a strong shot at hitting, though his floor is lower than some other guys in his price range.

The “bet on efficiency” conversation extends to the Chargers’ passing attack, as this slow-paced, run-leaning offense is taking on a slow-paced Raiders team, and is furthermore taking on a defense that invites teams to run (thus shortening games). This is a poor spot to expect Rivers to rise above 30 pass attempts for what would be just the second time in eight games. I don’t expect to roster the Chargers’ passing attack myself. If you want to go here: the matchup sets up great, but a bet on this passing attack is a bet on the Chargers either A) unexpectedly airing things out, or B) notching upside on extreme efficiency.

The Raiders’ offense is dead to me, and I won’t be going to anyone on this tanking team. If you want to attack in this spot through the air, you could hope for a big YAC day from one of the wide receivers, or you could hope for a return to relevance for Cook. In the backfield, Richard is the better bet, but Martin could theoretically become relevant with a long run or a couple unpredictable touchdowns.

DOLPHINS // PACKERS OVERVIEW

Vegas and the betting public are not fooled by the standings here, as the 5-4 Dolphins have been installed as early-week 10-point underdogs on the road against the 3-4-1 Packers. In addition to being the better team, Green Bay is 0-4 on the road, but they are 3-0-1 at home. Miami is 4-1 at home, but they are 1-3 on the road.

The Dolphins not only play at the third slowest pace in the NFL, but — with an offense that ranks 28th in drive success rate — they have also found themselves with the second lowest time of possession, and with the second fewest plays per game. For years now, the Packers have been excellent at limiting opponent plays, and this year they rank sixth in time of possession on offense and rank in the top half of the league in fewest opponent plays allowed per game. The Dolphins as a whole rank 24th in points per game and 28th in yards per game.

On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins’ defense has been ripping at the seams lately, dropping to 19th in points allowed per game while allowing the seventh most yards per game in the league. Green Bay’s offense ranks sixth in yards per game and 14th in points per game. The Packers have averaged 21.0 points per game on the road compared to 27.0 per game at home. The Dolphins’ defense has allowed 21.2 points per game at home compared to 29.75 on the road.

The Dolphins’ offense, on the other hand, has scored only 16.75 points per game on the road, while the Packers have allowed 20.5 points per game at home compared to 30.5 points per game on the road.

DOLPHINS PASS OFFENSE

Brock Osweiler threw the ball only 24 times against the Jets last week, but this is not Tannehill’s run-heavy Dolphins offense, as Osweiler preceded that game with passing totals of 44 // 31 // 37. (Tannehill topped 23 pass attempts in only two of his five games — with totals of 28 and 35 in his other two contests.) If we expect the Packers to establish an early lead in this game, we should expect decent volume from Osweiler — for whatever that proves to be worth. Osweiler has topped 241 passing yards only once, while the Packers’ pass-focused defense has filtered opponents to the ground, facing the fifth fewest pass attempts in the league.

Through Osweiler’s four starts, target counts on the Dolphins have looked like this:

:: Danny Amendola — 11 // 7 // 6 // 7
:: DeVante Parker — 1 // DNP // 9 // 2
:: Kenny Stills — 2 // 3 // DNP // 1
:: Jakeem Grant — 4 // 2 // 8 // 2
:: Mike Gesicki — 2 // 3 // 5 // 1

In the short areas of the field, the best way to attack the Packers is with slants and curls — the role Amendola occupies in this offense. With his locked-in workload and a matchup that plays to his strengths, he’s a solid “floor” piece this week, though he has a check-for-typo zero targets in the red zone all season — requiring a broken play for him to go for upside.

Downfield, the best way to beat the Packers is with deep crossing routes and plain old go routes (the Packers have had multiple lapses this year on downfield shots). While Parker saw a scary-low two targets last week, he played 51 out of 57 snaps and ran a pass route on 29 of Osweiler’s 30 drop-backs (tying Amendola for the team lead). Stills took a backseat, with 28 snaps and 17 pass routes run. In a game script that should force the Dolphins to be more aggressive than they had to be last week vs the Jets, it is reasonable to pencil in Parker for five to seven targets.

Grant (29 snaps last week) and Gesicki (27 snaps) are part-time players right now.

On the season, the Dolphins have only 19 red zone pass attempts and six red zone passing touchdowns. The Packers have also allowed one of the lowest catch rates in the league to wide receivers, at 58.7%.

DOLPHINS RUN OFFENSE

As has been noted in this space repeatedly: the Packers invite opponents to run the ball on them, which has led to this team ranking middle of the pack in rush attempts faced, while also ranking middle of the pack in yards allowed per carry.

While the matchup is not an issue for the Dolphins, game flow and the split nature of this backfield could be a problem.

Ancient Frank Gore ran the ball 20 times last week — his sixth consecutive game with double-digit carries. He has topped 63 rushing yards only once this year, and he has not yet scored a rushing touchdown. He has seven total receptions through the first nine games of the year.

Backfield partner Kenyan Drake, on the other hand, has hit double-digit carries in only two of his last seven games, while topping four catches only once on the year. Drake has floated a few usable box scores on the back of his five touchdowns, but his floor is bone bare on weeks when the touchdowns don’t make an appearance. Consider him a low-floor, modest-ceiling play against a Packers team that has been solid against the position (11th fewest receiving yards allowed to backs; third fewest receiving touchdowns).

PACKERS PASS OFFENSE

The Dolphins pass defense has gotten a lot of positive press this year, but they have been crumbling lately. On the year, this team is allowing a roughly league-average aDOT and catch rate, while allowing the second highest YAC/R rate in the NFL. The Dolphins rank 28th in yards allowed per pass attempt, and while they lead the NFL with 15 interceptions, three of those picks came against Mariota/Gabbert, six more have been gifted by Sam Darnold (across two contests), and another two came from Derek Carr. The Dolphins have also picked Brady (twice) and Dalton (once), but along the way they have given up 345 yards and a touchdown to Carr, 274 yards and three touchdowns at home to Brady, 248 yards and a touchdown at home to Dalton, 316 yards and three touchdowns to Trubisky, 217 yards and two touchdowns to Stafford, and 239 yards and five touchdowns to Deshaun Watson. The matchup is not a concern for Aaron Rodgers — with the only potential concern being volume, as the Dolphins (with their 23rd-ranked run defense) have faced the fifth lowest opponent pass play rate in the league. The last time the Packers played an opponent that invites teams to run (Detroit, in Week 5), Rodgers encouragingly threw a season-high 52 pass attempts…though in that game, the Packers were playing from behind, which is unlikely to be the case here. The Packers rank second in the NFL in pass play rate and prefer to let Rodgers win games for them (that is to say: Rodgers — who is effectively the offensive coordinator of this offense once he’s on the field — prefers to win games himself rather than handing off the ball), so volume should not be a massive concern (Rodgers has 40+ pass attempts in all but two games this year). But realize that there is a chance the Packers lean run-heavy as the game moves along. That’s really the only major obstacle in the way of a big game from the Packers’ QB.

Xavien Howard will find his name thrown around this week in the DFS community, as he ranks top 20 in fewest receptions allowed per coverage snap, and he has allowed a completion rate into his coverage of only 56.4%. He’ll shadow Davante Adams everywhere but the slot (where Adams has traveled only 21% of the time), but it is worth mentioning what we bring up every time Adams has a difficult draw: efficiency may be a struggle, but the targets will still be there, as Rodgers makes a point of getting Adams involved regardless. He saw 14 targets against Tre’Davious White (going 8-81-0) and nine targets against Stephon Gilmore (6-40-1). Those are the two most difficult shadow matchups in the league this year, leaving Adams with upside in tourneys.

Behind Adams, Rodgers has spread the ball around lately, giving five and six targets to each of Randall Cobb and Marquez Valdes-Scantling the last two weeks, while involving Jimmy Graham with four looks and six looks.

With Geronimo Allison moving to I.R., MVS should be locked into a starting gig the remainder of the year after playing 60 of a possible 74 snaps last week (Cobb played 56; Adams played 71). Now that MVS has moved out of the slot, he is carrying big upside on the downfield looks he is seeing. He played so well in Week 9, the Patriots eventually moved Gilmore to him — an indicator of the sort of damage he might be able to do this week away from Howard. Of course, that upside comes with a modest floor, as there is no guarantee he tops six targets (a mark he has risen above only once all year).

Cobb continues to handle a possession role and has topped 40 yards only once.

Behind these guys, Graham should continue to see his five to six looks, giving him a decent floor and ceiling. The Dolphins have been a middling matchup for tight ends this year, though they have allowed the fourth most touchdowns to the position.

PACKERS RUN OFFENSE

As noted above: the Packers run the ball at the second lowest rate in the league, which has led to this team piling up the fourth fewest rush attempts on the season. This team also continues to split backfield work between the low upside of Jamaal Williams (31 snaps last week; six straight games with under 35 rushing yards) and Aaron Jones (43 snaps last week; 40+ rushing yards in all six games he has played, in spite of seeing double-digit carries in only half his games). Jones has contributed two catches in three of his last four games, though these have been dump-off targets without much upside attached to them, and he has yet to reach 20 receiving yards. His main value will have to come on the ground, where he does at least have 12 and 14 carries the last two weeks. Even if the rushing attempts rise for this team as a whole, it seems unlikely at this point that Jones will top 15 rushes himself — but 14 to 15 carries and one to three catches could be enough for him to provide sneaky value against a Miami team that ranks bottom 10 in yards allowed per carry and bottom five in rushing yards allowed per game.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Unsurprisingly, nothing much stands out on the Miami side of the ball in this spot — but Amendola does appear to be a solid space-filler in cash games on DraftKings and FantasyDraft, with full-PPR scoring. He’s unlikely to post a big score, but he’s likely to provide a solid floor, which is more than can be said about a lot of guys in his price range. Behind Amendola, Parker is an interesting tourney play — as a guy no one will want to roster after his two-target dud last week. If game flow goes as expected (and if Parker continues to play ahead of Stills), he could see five to seven looks, and he would carry upside on those targets, making him a low-floor, solid-ceiling play. Behind these two, I won’t be surprised if some other piece on this offense posts a decent score, but I don’t expect to be hunting for it myself.

On the Packers, I like Jones less than I wanted to, but he should provide a solid score, with upside for a difference-making score if he gets a touchdown opportunity or two. The matchup is great, but volume remains a concern.

I do like Rodgers as a safe, high-upside play at quarterback (he’ll push for 300 yards, and he should account for two to three touchdowns), and I like both Adams and MVS as Upside plays. Neither guy leaps off the page, but each deserves consideration. The same could be said for Jimmy Graham at the ever-thin tight end position.

Finally, I wouldn’t be against taking a shot on an aggressive Packers defense that ranks sixth in the NFL in sacks and will be facing a quarterback in Osweiler who is prone to bad throws and errors in judgement. There are some better “on paper” plays on the slate, but the Packers are the type of team that could score a defensive touchdown against a quarterback like Osweiler, keeping them firmly in the Week 10 conversation.

SEAHAWKS // RAMS OVERVIEW

The 4-4 Seahawks are still in the thick of the playoff hunt, but after a Week 9 loss to the Chargers, Seattle enters the second half with games lined up against the Rams, Packers, Panthers, Vikings, and Chiefs before the season ends — a gauntlet of opponents through which the Seahawks can likely afford only two losses. This will be a big game for them, against an 8-1 Rams team that is coming off a disappointing, hard-fought road loss to the Saints. After this game, the Rams travel to Mexico City to take on the Chiefs on Monday Night Football before finally going on bye. When these teams met in Seattle earlier in the year, the Seahawks leaned heavily on the run en route to a close 31-33 loss.

Of course, “leaning on the run” is a big part of what Seattle does, as they rank last in the NFL in pass play rate, with Russell Wilson topping 26 pass attempts last week for the first time in a month and a half. Watch for the Seahawks to once again attempt to take this approach against a Rams team that ranks 24th in yards allowed per carry (when these teams last met, Russ threw only 21 times) — though the Rams will obviously have potential to jolt Seattle out of this approach with a quick, early lead.

Each of these teams ranks top 10 in time of possession, and each ranks top three in fewest opponent plays allowed per game. Along with the low opponent plays, the Rams rank only 12th in plays per game on offense and the Seahawks rank 20th, as the run-leaning nature of both offenses (the Rams rank 30th in pass play rate) leads to time melting off the clock throughout the game. This projects to be a fairly low-volume spot as a whole, which will lead to “efficiency” being key on either side of the ball.

SEAHAWKS RUN OFFENSE

The breakdown of the Seahawks’ run offense is extremely straightforward at this point, as Seattle is essentially giving around 20 carries to their lead back and around 10 carries to their number two back every single week. Last week, Chris Carson was a game-time decision with his hip injury, and then he left after only 10 snaps with an aggravation of the injury (incredibly, Carson had eight carries — and 40 yards — on those 10 snaps before exiting). In his place, Mike Davis added 15 carries and a surprising eight targets (seven catches for 45 yards), while Rashaad Penny filled out the backfield with four carries and three catches of his own.

While the Seahawks are likely to eventually be chased from their run-heavy approach in this game, this team should remain run-focused for as long as this is at least a two-score game — with Seattle only likely to turn pass-heavy if A) they fall behind by three scores, or B) they are still behind by two scores deep into the fourth quarter. It is worth pointing out that the volume spike for Russ last week came in a game in which Seattle ran an uncharacteristic 81 plays. This team has averaged only 62.5 plays per game, and the Rams are allowing a league low 58.3 plays per game.

If Carson plays this week, he should once again factor in for around 20 carries. If he misses, Davis will take over the backfield lead — pushing for 20 carries and adding a couple receptions along the way. The Rams rank 24th in yards allowed per carry, giving some hope to whichever back gets the start.

SEAHAWKS PASS OFFENSE

Lazy analysis here would say that the Rams will score a bunch of points and force the Seahawks to the air, but Seattle has leaned run-heavy even when trailing, recognizing that it’s no trouble to overcome a 10 or 14 point deficit with a standard approach, as long as there is time on the clock. Seattle will stick with a run-leaning approach for as long as they can, and with this team likely to run more like 60 plays than the 81 they ran last week, it seems unlikely yet again that big volume piles up.

Russ has failed to top even 248 passing yards since Week 1 — though on a more encouraging note, he has played extremely well this year, tossing at least two touchdown passes in all but one game on the season, while pairing his 18 passing touchdowns on the year with only five interceptions. He has also added recent carry counts of 6 // 2 // 5, creating a bit more upside than he was showing earlier in the year.

Since Doug Baldwin returned to the field for the Seahawks in Week 4, target counts on this team have looked like this:

:: Doug Baldwin — 7 // 1 // 8 // 3 // 4
:: Tyler Lockett — 6 // 4 // 4 // 2 // 4
:: David Moore — 2 // 4 // 3 // 4 // 7
:: Jaron Brown — 0 // 0 // 1 // 0 // 2
:: Nick Vannett — 2 // 4 // DNP // 3 // 8

A bet on this passing attack is likely a bet on the Rams jumping out to a big, early lead — so if rostering one of these guys, you should complete the play with one or two pieces on the Rams.

Lockett continues to operate as the big-play threat on this team, while Moore has piled up five red zone targets (and three red zone touchdowns) on his limited looks. Baldwin’s knee issue does not appear to be impacting his play in a significant way, but he will obviously need the Seahawks to become more aggressive through the air in order to attain bankable value.

RAMS OFFENSE

Last week marked the first time Jared Goff has topped 36 pass attempts in a game this year, as the Rams were forced to get aggressive while chasing the Saints. Goff has produced 33 or fewer pass attempts in six of his nine games, and a matchup against a slow-paced, run-heavy Seahawks team — in a game the Rams should ultimately control — should land him in that lower end of his range once again.

Seattle has forced the fifth lowest aDOT in the league this year, but they are allowing a league-average catch rate, and they have had several lapses on the back end that have led to them allowing the fifth highest YAC/R rate in the league. The Seahawks have allowed four receivers to crack 100 yards against them this year, with Emmanuel Sanders doing so in Week 1 off of YAC, with Allen Robinson getting there in Week 2 off of volume, with Marvin Jones getting there in Week 8 off of a couple big downfield receptions, and with Keenan Allen getting there in Week 9 with a sick double-move that freed him for a big gain on third and long. This is ultimately an above-average secondary, but not to such an extent that we should significantly downgrade this elite passing attack. The bigger issue in this spot is that Kupp, Cooks, and Woods could all have arguments made for them as the top play in this attack this week; and given that volume projects to be below-average and the Seahawks do not project to turn this into a back-and-forth, quick-strike shootout, we will probably see only one of these guys produce a truly strong box score.

Target counts in games that each of these three has played from start to finish look like this:

:: Cooper Kupp — 9 // 6 // 5 // 11 // 6
:: Brandin Cooks — 8 // 9 // 8 // 8 // 8
:: Robert Woods — 9 // 9 // 11 // 5 // 9

Cooks is the best bet for a big play, and he quietly trails Kupp in red zone targets by only one (11 to 10).

Kupp theoretically has the lowest-upside role, but his ability to turn short passes into big gains and his locked-in red zone role give him plenty of upside.

Woods has not popped off recently, and he has half as many red zone targets (five) as the other two, but the targets are still there, and Woods can typically be counted on for at least one carry as well.

Speaking of targets: Todd Gurley has seen exactly five to seven targets in all but one game this season (a three-target outlier in Week 2, when he scored three quick touchdowns against Arizona before giving way to Malcolm Brown for 12 garbage time carries). Gurley posted his lowest fantasy output of the season last week against the top-ranked run defense of the Saints — but even that game produced what would be considered a strong output for most players in the league, and that game would have looked quite a bit different if it had been Gurley instead of Brown who scored the second running back touchdown. Gurley has recent touch counts (starting with his last game against Seattle) of 26 // 30 // 19 // 31 // 19, with a red zone role that essentially doubles what any other player in the league has. When these teams played in Week 5, the Seahawks held Gurley to only 3.5 yards per carry, but he still produced a 5-36-0 line through the air and added three touchdowns on the ground. Gurley remains the top raw-projected play on the slate.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

The Seahawks have been more willing to throw the ball to Mike Davis this year than to Chris Carson (Carson has played 210 snaps but run only 63 pass routes, while Davis has played 191 snaps and run 99 pass routes), and this effectively makes Davis a more “game flow independent” lead back. If Carson plays this week, I’ll likely have interest in neither guy. But if Carson sits and Davis takes over the lead back role, he’ll be an interesting piece to consider, as he’ll be in line for around 20 touches — with two or three catches if the game stays close, and with a few more catches if the Rams take a big lead.

Elsewhere on Seattle, I would have a tough time chasing anything, as this team has simply produced far too little volume for anyone to stand out. It won’t be surprising if Russ posts another solid game, and he can probably support one of his pass catchers, but there are certainly plays in other spots on the slate that require less “hope and pray” than this.

On the Rams’ side, Gurley is always in play, and he should be in line for a strong Sunday once again. In the passing attack, all three of Cooks, Woods, and Kupp are in play — though this means that none of them become “must plays,” for me, as it could be a bit of a guessing game as to who will produce the biggest box score. I’ll be adding all three to my list and trying to find something during the second half of the week that allows one of them to stand apart from the others.

COWBOYS // EAGLES OVERVIEW

You know that feeling when a band is no longer making good music, or an actor is no longer making good movies, but everyone is so caught up in past performance that they fail to really notice?

In the last 18 seasons, the Cowboys have made the playoffs only six times, and they have won only two playoff games. Jerry Jones continually ambushes his team with poor football decisions and then meddles in coaching decisions. The salary cap was introduced in 1994, and since the effects began to take hold, the Cowboys have been largely irrelevant in the NFL landscape — and yet, this team gets more press time and more air time than probably 25 to 30 other teams. I’m sure it seemed like a good idea at the start of the year when ESPN and NBC were given so many “Cowboys in primetime” games, but with another season of Jason Garrett and Scott Linehan, this offense has been practically unwatchable. On the field, this is currently one of the most boring teams in football.

Enough with the rant. The 3-5 Cowboys will be squaring off with the 4-4 Eagles on Sunday Night Football. This game has been awarded an unappealing early-week Over/Under of 43.0, with the Eagles installed as touchdown favorites. Each defense is above-average, with Philly ranking fifth in points allowed per game and Dallas ranking third, and with the Cowboys also allowing the fourth fewest yards per game (Philly ranks 17th). Both teams prefer to slow down the pace (Dallas ranks 28th; Philly ranks 26th), and each team does their best to control the game by controlling the clock (the Cowboys have struggled in this area in 2018, ranking 25th in time of possession, but the Eagles rank first in the league).

COWBOYS PASS OFFENSE

The Cowboys’ run-leaning approach (25th in pass play rate) will be put to the test this week against a Philly team that is facing the highest pass play rate (and the fewest rush attempts) in the league for the second year running. Because the Cowboys are coached by Garrett and Linehan, this team banged Ezekiel Elliott into the line 27 times in this matchup last year, while throwing only 30 times. Zeke amassed only 103 yards (3.8 YPC) in that game, and the Eagles scored zero points with Nick Foles and Nate Sudfeld under center. The likeliest setup for the Cowboys is that they will continue to lean on the run for as long as this game stays close, in spite of the difficult matchup.

All criticisms aside: Dak Prescott has quietly played well across the Cowboys’ last four games, completing 64.5% of his pass attempts while piling up 240+ yards in two of those three games and throwing five touchdowns to only one interceptions. Baby steps, sure — but “baby steps” are big right now after an ugly start to the season. Dak has also mixed in 19 carries for 126 yards during this stretch. The Eagles have allowed the fourth most quarterback rushing yards in the league.

Targets last week for the Cowboys in their first game with Amari Cooper looked like this (snap count in parentheses)

:: Amari Cooper — 8 || (50)
:: Michael Gallup — 6 || (47)
:: Cole Beasley — 4 || (44)
:: Allen Hurns — 1 || (18)
:: Deonte Thompson — 2 || (3)

Disappointingly, the Cowboys used Amari in the slot on only seven of his 50 snaps — limiting the impact he will be able to have in this offense — but they did proactively scheme the ball into his hands. This may have been a one-week Coach Jerry mandate, but after Dallas confusingly gave up a first round pick for their new “number one receiver,” it won’t be surprising if he continues to see heavy usage. Eight-plus targets is a reasonable projection once again.

Gallup has an aDOT on the year of 14.8 and will have a shot at providing upside if the targets are there. He has seen five or more targets in three of his last five games, though he and Dak have connected on only 13 of 28 targets on the year (46.4%).

Beasley is going to have a more difficult time coming across upside with Amari in the fold, though he remains a vital cog in this attack and will continue to see a few targets each game on underneath routes — likely with a random spike in usage from time to time. Beasley does have seven red zone targets and two red zone touchdowns this year, if you need to dig deep on the Showdown.

The tight ends continue to provide next to nothing in this offense. Outside of the wide receivers, passes go to Zeke.

COWBOYS RUN OFFENSE

The Eagles are allowing only 3.75 yards per carry to running backs, and as noted above, they have faced the fewest running back rush attempts in the league (by far). Philly has also allowed only two total touchdowns to running backs — though they have allowed the seventh most catches and 10th most receiving yards to the position.

Zeke has 15 or more carries in every game this year (with three games of 20+ carries), and he has at least three catches in all but two games. He has struggled to produce at an efficient clip lately (2.7 yards per carry against Houston, 2.2 yards per carry against Washington, 3.6 yards per carry against Tennessee), and he has only four touchdowns on the year in this offense that ranks 26th in points per game. But on the Showdown, there does remain value in simply taking a talented running back with a locked-in workload.

EAGLES PASS OFFENSE

The Dallas pass defense has built a big reputation this year, but they have allowed the fourth highest catch rate in the NFL, while ranking middle of the pack in yards allowed per pass attempt. The biggest thing Dallas has done is hold quarterbacks out of the end zone, with only 10 passing touchdowns allowed all year, but on the Showdown, this is not enough to knock this Eagles attack out of consideration.

Wentz has been spectacular over his last four games — notching 10 touchdowns to only one interception, notching at least 278 passing yards in all four games, with pass attempt totals of only 35 // 36 // 37 // 30, and completing an eye-popping 73.2% of his passes. One of those games came against Minnesota and another came against Jacksonville. Wentz has also added 73 yards on the ground during this stretch.

Targets across this stretch for the Eagles have looked like this:

:: Alshon Jeffery — 8 // 12 // 10 // 5
:: Zach Ertz — 11 // 9 // 11 // 6
:: Nelson Agholor — 4 // 5 // 7 // 6
:: Jordan Matthews — 1 // 3 // 0 // 5

(Note: the drop in targets for Alshon/Ertz came against the Jaguars.)

It will be interesting to see exactly how the Eagles incorporate Golden Tate this week, as each of Agholor, Matthews, and Tate is best suited to the slot. Obviously, Matthews can be considered the odd man out, and it seems likely that the Eagles’ prize acquisition will be put in the best possible position for success. This would mean Tate sliding into the slot, with Agholor kicking to the outside where he is less well-suited. Agholor also shapes up as the fourth option at this point, behind Alshon, Ertz, and Tate. Ultimately, Alshon and Ertz should stick to around eight to 10 targets, while Tate should land in a seven to eight target range — though it would not be surprising if Tate sees a spike in usage in his first game with the team. Humorously, Tate has already pasted Dallas for an 8-132-2 line this year with the Lions.

In spite of missing the first three games of the season, Alshon has nine red zone targets and four red zone touchdowns. Dallas can be hit for passes up the sidelines, where Alshon does most of his damage, giving him Showdown-worthy upside in this spot.

Ertz is on pace for an incredible 122 catches this season, and he has scored three touchdowns in his last four games. Nothing in this matchup should scare you away.

EAGLES RUN OFFENSE

In the Eagles’ last game, their backfield turned into a three-way committee, with Wendell Smallwood playing 31 snaps, Josh Adams playing 18 snaps, and Corey Clement playing 13 snaps. This week, Darren Sproles is finally expected to return to the field as well, which would create further confusion. If this game were on the full-weekend slate, we would obviously be comfortable leaving it at that. On the Showdown, there are better plays, though Clement appears to be on his way out of the rotation (15 touches for 30 total yards across the Eagles’ last two games), while Adams looked strong in turning nine carries into 61 yards against the Jags. Smallwood has shown some upside through the air, and will be a more appealing piece if Sproles misses — with modest opportunity even if Sproles plays. Sproles himself will be a wildcard if active, as it will be difficult to know in advance how much the Eagles plan to use him. The safest bet is on a limited role — but this team is just unpredictable enough that Sproles could be worth a Showdown shot on the off chance he steps into several receptions right away.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

There is not a piece from this game I would prioritize on the Main Slate, though Wentz, Tate, Ertz, and Alshon would at least be worthy of consideration.

On the Showdown: Zeke should see a respectable workload, giving him a chance to hit (with a solid floor even if he doesn’t), while the Cowboys’ passing attack is likeliest to flow through Amari, with some opportunity for upside on Gallup, and with thin, deep-diving appeal on Beasley. Dak is also in play, as Dallas should eventually be forced to the air in this spot — and even if this only leads to short passes to Zeke and Beasley, this will likely be enough to make Dak relevant.

On the other side of the ball, I like Wentz quite a bit for the one-game slate, as he has already posted strong box scores in tougher matchups than this, and he is playing at home in a primetime game with a shiny new weapon and two weeks to prepare.

Tate, Ertz, and Alshon are all appealing on the Showdown, with Ertz providing the highest floor/ceiling combo, and with Tate requiring some guesswork but standing out as an interesting way to go. He sets up well in this matchup, and the Eagles have incentive to get him involved. I probably like Alshon the least of these three, but I like him more than any of the receivers on the Cowboys. He should still see his eight to 10 looks, and he’ll post a nice score if he finds the end zone.

The Eagles’ backfield is obviously a tough sell, but you could mix and match guesses across various rosters if you wanted. Ultimately, Philly is likely to feature at least three backs, and we probably won’t see any of them post the sort of score that will make you wish you had them.

As always, the kickers remain in play on the Showdown.

The Eagles’ defense is far likelier to post a usable score than the Cowboys’ defense — but hey, it’s defense. Anything can happen.

GIANTS // 49ERS OVERVIEW

Ten weeks into the season, there is a very real chance we have not yet seen a single Monday Night Football matchup this year between two teams that will both reach the playoffs. Recent Monday Night Football matchups include:

Week 6 :: 49ers (currently 2-7) at the Packers
Week 7 :: Giants (currently 1-7) at the Falcons
Week 8 :: Bills (currently 2-7) hosting the Patriots
Week 9 :: Cowboys (currently 3-5) hosting the Titans

Between the truly embarrassing Monday Night Football booth (I now watch these games on mute, when I watch them at all) and the horrible slate of matchups, it’s tough to get excited right now about the game that extends the weekend. This week, it’s the Giants and 49ers, who have combined for a 3-14 record.

This game has been installed with an early-week Over/Under of 44.0, with the 49ers as three point home favorites. Without fantasy and DFS viewership, this game would draw almost no attention outside of whatever diehards remain from these two fan bases. From a “DFS viewership” perspective, this game does give us some explosive weapons to play around with, creating an interesting setup on the final Showdown slate of the week.

GIANTS PASS OFFENSE

The 49ers have been an attackable unit through the air this year — with a middling yards allowed per pass attempt of 7.3, but with 18 passing touchdowns allowed (fourth most in the league), and with only two interceptions. As fortune would have it, there are only two teams in football that have allowed a higher YAC/R rate than the 49ers this year — a great setup for a player in Odell Beckham who we roster primarily for his volume-based workload and his YAC-driven upside.

Beckham, of course, is the starting point for this passing attack, as he has at least nine targets in every game this year — and he has actually seen double-digit looks in all but one game. With only three touchdowns on the year, in a passing attack that is so broken that OBJ has three games already of 60 or fewer yards, there are slim “floor” concerns to consider; but in each of the five games in which Beckham has topped 60 receiving yards, he has topped it hard — going for 109 or more yards in each of those games. OBJ will undoubtedly be popular on this one-game slate, but for good reason, as Saquon Barkley is the only player who boasts more upside on this slate.

Behind Beckham, Sterling Shepard has continued to see heavy involvement, with only one game all year (Week 2 at Dallas) below seven targets. (Shepard also has only one game north of eight targets.) Like his more heralded teammate, Shepard has disappointed a few times (four games of 48 or fewer yards; only two touchdowns on the year), but he has made up for this with four games of 75+ yards, including a 167-yard explosion against Atlanta a few weeks back.

While we never know how effective Eli Manning will be on a given week, we have noted in this space in the past that he has notched the highest completion rate of his career this season, and now he has also passed for 300+ yards in three of his last four games. Most of this yardage has come from yards after the catch, but the DFS impact is the same. This is especially noteworthy given the fact that the Giants’ target distribution is so narrow — helping to eliminate questions of where these yards will come from. There has been only one game this year in which another wide receiver on this team topped four targets.

The one potential wrench to volume for OBJ and Shepard is Evan Engram, who has seen target totals of 5 // 7 // 4 // 9 in the games he has started and finished. The 49ers are non-threatening against tight ends, which creates opportunity for targets to be there this week, and for Engram to be considered on the Showdown.

GIANTS RUN OFFENSE

Joining Beckham in the “extreme upside” department is Saquon, who has not yet topped 18 carries this season (while falling to top even 15 carries in any of his last five games), but who has made up for this with target counts in this stretch of 8 // 4 // 12 // 10 // 10. He is a legitimate threat to score any time he touches the ball, and his seven touchdowns are only one fewer than Eli Manning has through the air (with two of Eli’s eight scores going to Saquon). Matchup has not mattered for Saquon this year, but San Fran has allowed a middling 4.03 yards per carry to running backs while ranking middle of the pack in yards allowed to the position. They have allowed the fifth most catches and the 11th most receiving yards to running backs, and only six teams have allowed more touchdowns.

49ERS PASS OFFENSE

With the Giants constantly playing from behind, they have faced the eighth lowest opponent pass play rate and the ninth fewest pass attempts, which has helped them to allow the fourth fewest passing touchdowns in the league. With only four interceptions all year (fifth fewest in the NFL), only 10 sacks on the season (second fewest in the NFL), and a middling yards allowed per pass attempt mark, this shouldn’t scare us away from Nick Mullens and the 49ers’ passing attack on the Showdown. Of bigger concern is the fact that San Francisco — even without a lead — is leaning extremely run-heavy, with the sixth lowest pass play rate in the league this year (55.04%), and with an even lower mark across their last three games (50.29%). Across their last four games, San Francisco has not topped even 28 pass attempts. As a home favorite against a bad Giants team, this sets up as another spot in which the 49ers will be able to lean on the run.

Target counts during this low-volume stretch have looked like this:

:: George Kittle — 6 // 8 // 8 // 4
:: Pierre Garcon — 6 // 1 // DNP // 5
:: Marquise Goodwin — 5 // 5 // 4 // 4
:: Kendrick Bourne — 3 // 1 // 10 // 2

Outside of the Week 6 game in which Goodwin hit for a pair of long plays and went 4-126-2, no wide receiver on the 49ers has topped 71 yards. A bet on any wide receiver on the 49ers is a bet on either a broken play or a touchdown. From a “touchdown” perspective — Garcon and Goodwin each have three red zone targets, while Bourne has six, though Bourne played only 12 snaps last week, to 11 for Dante Pettis and 23 for Richie James. This is a difficult wide receiver group in which to hunt for upside, even on the Showdown.

Of course, the big piece of this passing attack has been Kittle, who has put on some monster YAC clinics this season on his way to bounce-around yardage totals of 90 // 22 // 79 // 125 // 83 // 30 // 98 // 57 // 108. Because Kittle’s upside requires him to break off a long play, those low-yardage games will be an occupational hazard of targeting him in DFS — but he stands out as the most attractive pass-catching option on this side of the ball, and it won’t be unexpected for him to outscore everyone on the Giants except Saquon and OBJ.

49ERS RUN OFFENSE

With Raheem Mostert disappointingly disappearing to I.R., this backfield is once again down to Matt Breida and Alfred Morris. Breida has played through an ankle injury that has slowed down his torrid early-season pace, and he has discouragingly seen only two targets across his last five games. Alf has one target and zero catches across his last four contests, and he has yet to top 67 rushing yards in a game this season. Both players need to be viewed as yardage-and-touchdown backs at the moment, in a matchup against a Giants team that has allowed a middling 731 rushing yards to running backs at 4.15 yards per carry. The Giants have allowed 11 touchdowns to backs (rushing and receiving combined), providing some hope for these two backs who have combined for only four touchdowns on the year.

JM’S INTERPRETATION

Frankly, OBJ and Saquon are in the tourney discussion in any matchup, on any slate — causing them to especially stand out on the Showdown. Along with that seemingly emphatic endorsement comes the obvious disclaimer that — while each guy is always in the conversation for “most upside on the slate” — floor is lower in a dysfunctional offense than it would be in a good offense, as strange things will happen from time to time on bad offenses to hijack player box scores.

Behind these two, Shepard and Engram are both worth considering, with Eli as a Showdown Special — a guy who we would probably not even look at on the full-weekend slate, but who could pile up 300 yards and a couple touchdowns to make a dent in the Showdown.

On the 49ers’ side, Kittle is the top play, with no one else on this team who has produced anything resembling usable stat lines outside of rare, unpredictable outlier scenarios. Mullens will obviously be a fun play to target on the Showdown, but be aware of the low volume this passing attack has produced recently. Breida and Alf round out this offense, and I would probably lean toward both Shepard and Engram over them.

It will not be surprising if one of the kickers in this game finishes among the five highest-scoring players on the Showdown slate.

Neither defense is likely to post a difference-making score — though in a game like this (where floor/ceiling plays evaporate quickly behind Saquon and OBJ), layering in some multi-entry shots on one of these defenses is not a poor idea.